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RAPID trading update

DividendGuy67
Publish date: Sun, 09 Jun 2024, 03:26 PM

Previous posts here and here.

This is not an investing position, but a small trading position.

The key to my trading strategy is flexibility and transformation.  It's not what you will learn from books or courses - those are just for beginners.  What initially started as a one-time casino style punt, can now appear to have been altered slightly after charts show us its character several months later.

Here's what I've been looking at for quite some time.  I have previously placed quietly GTC Limit buy orders and they have been triggered, to pull my average price down from 1.63 down to 1.06.  Still underwater, but not too concerned as total position size is still smallish, and the recent addition is at a good price and is nicely profitable, to partially offset the initial loss.   

The thing about "averaging down" (it's actually 2 different trades on the same stock) is it needs lots and lots of patience and discipline.  Here measured over months and several weekend reviews.  The goal is to look for a higher probability set up, but nothing is guaranteed.  Discipline is a must - if the setup does not appear, we do nothing.  This way, the second trade lowers the average price much more effectively, and the whole operation does not lock in large amounts of capital.   I was actually quite happy not to make the 2nd trade.   However, after reading some posts, monitoring, the setup appears and so I took it - again a small position.   

Note I'm not a fan of huge averaging down, unless it is a seriously high conviction trade, like my best Top 5% ideas.  Otherwise, it is a no.   Recently, in i3 forum, for BAT, one trader shared his/her position size being 38X a previous size 8 years ago - unless the capital has increased by 38X over this period, it is not recommended to average down by such a huge extent, even on one's highest conviction trades.  Nothing is guaranteed in trading.   

For me, RAPID remains a low conviction trade (bottom half of my convictions), hence, this approach that relies on maintaining the small position size, notwitstanding this is a 2nd trade with the first trade still open.

Here, I do have an implicit partial stop loss on the 2nd trade in case I am wrong, so that I don't add to the loss from the 1st trade.  

I also like to note that  price appeared to have temporarily stabilized in a horizontal trading zone since crashing massively in Jan 2024.  It appears to have found that "box range zone" in March till June (nearly 3 months).  3 months is still relatively short time for "operators" to accumulate - sometimes, these accumulation can lasts > 1 year, I don't know.   The chart notes are just for personal reference, every trader interprets them differently depending on their trading system.  

Disclaimer - you are always responsible for your own trading / investing decisions.

Disclaimer 2 - real life price actions seldom/almost never follow textbooks - it tend to be "dirtier" and "messier". 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 3 of 3 comments

DividendGuy67

Today, RAPID has broken out above the 94 sen horizontal resistance, to close at RM1. Very nice. My paper loss has shrunk tremendously. At one point, the paper loss was huge, nearly 60% paper loss (1.63 average vs 65.5 sen bottom). After a patient 2nd average down to bring down my average cost to 1.06, at 1, the paper loss has shrunk to only 6%!

I didn't use a huge amount of capital for this 2nd average down, but wait patiently for the chart to show a 2nd high probability setup. This 2nd trade is strictly not an averaging down, but a 2nd trade on its own. It happens to be on the same stock. This is typical - a stock, over its wave down, will sometimes gives us more than 1 high probability setup.

The technically correct way to average down is to take each trade on its own merit. Then, it becomes more efficient to lower the Average Cost price, without consuming a lot of capital.

2024-06-11 21:17

Jnlee

dividendguy67,can u explained why u invest in this stock?

2024-06-11 21:36

DividendGuy67

Jnlee, I already fully explained in this article and the link to past posts. Read them carefully.

2024-06-12 00:28

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