Hangseng second half 2016 outlook

Hangseng second half 2016 outlook

duitKWSPkita
Publish date: Tue, 26 Jul 2016, 10:42 AM
duitKWSPkita
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For discussion purpose ONLY!
Following Message

few friends still doubtful why I proposed the below:

3) For Hangseng Futures please take note the new contract has roll over on July 24' 2016 and tomorrow will start with 21,493. It is very easy to calculate premium or discount in next few days to determine new trend. Ideally, China gonna be continue to blast in second half where the China's Hongkong listed company will continue to shine until year end. Currently, by weekly chart and market condition it had successfully breakout those critical resistances although momentum getting weaker last week. For short term we shall see light pull back when negative news like Italy debt crisis, Crude price plunge etc. For medium term I am looking at minimum 22,636. I combine Technical analysis, Wave Count and Macro check since the next strong resistances are located at 23,461 and 22,827 the room for 22,636 to grow is still very positive.
(a): 18,394 to 21,452 (3,058 pts)
(b): 21,452 to 19,578 (1,874 pts) 61.2 FIBON
(c): 19,578 + 3,058 = 22,636
(c1): 19,578 + (3,058 X 1.50)= 24,165

4) HSI Warrants. Please take note HSI Futures rolled over to Aug 2016 contract today. For put warrant HSI-H39 is a safer counter compared to HSI-H33. HSI-H33's exercise level is 19,800 at the end of August. For normal circumstance this is the FINAL WEEK to hold trade or hold HSI-H33 and one should only does HIT and RUN since 1st August 2016. You will see the price drop tremendously every week especially on T+4 except strong momentum of market down. It is at very least possibility to hit 19,800 in month end. I STRONGLY ADVISE TO AVOID H33 EXCEPT HIT AND RUN DAILY.

 

see the simple chart below it's sufficient for global trader to push since all signals are in place.

 

 

First figure presented the current movement breakout all resistances. It's easy to further push until October 2016.

Second figure suggested that if want to harvest ripe fruit can use the same quantum of 3,058 pts as reference, hence, to harvest at 22,636. However, it's not surprise when money flow in after end of August it will challenge 24,165 level.

 

Happy trading!

Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 12 of 12 comments

imoogi99

Good write up duit....from econsav cleaner to HangSeng expert.

2016-07-26 10:48

zenxxx

thanks a lot duit for sharing the info.

2016-07-26 10:50

angienhp

Good Morning,duit.
Thanks for your sharing.

2016-07-26 10:55

Kheng

Duit, another way to predict is connecting the low of the 1st uptrend compulsive wave to the mid-point of the 1st corrective trend line and extend upwards.

2016-07-26 10:56

duitKWSPkita

For index warrant beginner, highly recommend to understand "conversion level", "expiry date" and "out-of-money" effects before you execute your trading.

A very fundamental info for you. Many more market maker execution in my blog contents. http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/duitPUTwarrants/92262.jsp

It will be expensive mistake if you are fully rely on minute chart without taking into consideration of all other environment factors.

2016-07-26 10:58

angienhp

Duit ,Thanks for sharing the views.I already printed out as my 1st step learning.

2016-07-26 13:21

duitKWSPkita

You should not print out. Jz refer it will do. At the mean time go and get a real good mentor to guide you. I am not qualified in this matter. There are plenty of great mentor you may need to approach them....

Happy trading and happy learning

2016-07-26 17:14

duitKWSPkita

Flyingkite.

Very clear statement in HQ thread that not a feasible choice for global traders to pull down the index with extra cost. It's should ride all the way due to surpassed resistances.

You may take mine as reference while trading based on your assessment.

Very serious today as I found many start to "advise" people buy put warrants. I could predict how terrible the damage before Thursday.

2016-07-26 17:23

duitKWSPkita

Mean shall stop and renew push & pull factors to watch after Friday 11AM (BOJ decision). Did you read my long comment in Fun Trading Hub thread... got details there.

2016-07-26 17:28

zul33

Good stuff, thanks

2016-07-26 21:50

angienhp

Thanks duit,noted.good nite

2016-07-26 23:48

duitKWSPkita

ANgie.

Join them and learn properly. AT the end of journey make sure you gain something. No one will guide you forever but you must pick up fast from them. You may ask anything during off trading hours. Try to ask quality quest so it wont waste people time.

Happy learning

2016-07-27 00:01

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