Icon8888 Gossips About Stocks
(Icon) Chase Oil & Gas Stocks ? Be Careful Of Traps
Today forum member fayetan wrote an article "Sell All Export Stocks, Buy Oil & Gas Stocks"
Essentially, the article comprises two components, one sell, one buy.
It is not convenient for me to defense export stocks as I still have roughly 25% exposure in my portfolio. Readers will not find me convincing as I have vested interest. So I prefer not to say anything in this article (even though I sound out my opinion in various discussion threads).
However, when come to buying oil and gas stocks, I would caution everybody to maintain cool head. Is this recent rally sustainable ? Will it retrace ?
The reason I am alert of being trapped is because I have been trapped before. Last year when oil price rebounced, I rushed in to buy Pantech WA at 40 sen. Now it is dead at 17 sen.
The same can also happen this round if oil price retrace. As such, trade with caution.
Have a nice day.
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Discussions
7 people like this. Showing 42 of 42 comments
Sell all export co n buy Oil n gas counter??
The title itself will tell how green is this boy FayeTan...If u browse thru the balance sheet of these oil n gas counters u will be shocked over their borrowings.....if the current oil prices stays for a longer while some may close shop....Armada is the latest bomb...more will come dont worry...
At the meantime export co are relatively stronger...just that many of them are being over goreng and maybe the boss are happy to kill the retailers off too....
2016-03-07 15:05
Oil n gas Co in Bursa used to be the most expensive ones (traded at PE 15-25 times, prior to 2014) compared to it's peers in other countries (PE less than 10)...mainly due to Petronas n goreng goreng factor...
And now u see Petronas is cutting its workforce n hold some of it's project
Some big co such UMWOG, Armada n many others drop like shit...
So time to buy in?
2016-03-07 15:18
Have to pray the high debts from Oil n Gas sectors wouldnt turn into NPL to our banking systems in years to come
2016-03-07 15:20
What will a few dollar of oil price going up do to the industry ? Will Petronas start spending ? Will oil and gas contracts start flowing ?
If the answer is "NO", then why r u buying ?
As simple as that
2016-03-07 15:22
Dialog, bila mahu jadi Penny Stock? Sudah tahan banyak lama....come join UMWOG/ Armada n many others...dont be shy
2016-03-07 15:22
Already posted in other section but i repost here
I think the author is giving too simplified explanations on USD, MYR, commodities vs Middle East conflict
1) USD is weakening and not MYR getting more optimistic, hence the USDMYR appreciate from 4.4 to 4.10 level. Most emerging currencies had appreciated against the greenback
2)So when USD is weaker, obviously crude oil price will go up
3) so why oil price go up?
Because speculators believe Russia and Saudi will co-operate to stabilize oil price
4) Turkey is planning to invade Syria along with Saudi. When this happen, do not expect initial Russia-Saudi agreement will still in placed, USA and Saudi will pull the oil price down further to hurt Russia by :
- Fed hike rate, USD appreciate and oil price continue the downtrend
- Saudi and ally will pump more oil to destabilize Russia
So, instead of buy O&G and sell export counters, i would not buy O&G but when collect export counters when price has gone down to a very attractive level.
Those O&G counters are very sensitive to the oil price and are deemed much more risky than those export based counters. One can choose those export stocks which has faster PO/Sales turnover..such as HUPSENG, LIHEN, some rubber stocks etc. Export stocks selling on contracts like VS, LCTH, JCY etc will be severely affected by USD depreciation since they may have lower the selling price in US$ when USDMYR above 4.4.
My 2 cents
2016-03-07 16:35
Fed does not need to raise rates. A third of the global economy is in negative rates and that has the same effect as US raising rates.
2016-03-07 16:59
But shits, export co also the same.....Johotin, Canone, Geshen...those posted good result one also die...Chin Well, KESM etc....guess the market is real bad
2016-03-07 17:01
Will stick to shares with fundamentals......cash rich, debt free, good NTA, high dividn yield!
2016-03-07 17:28
Our readers in KLSE, wish they understand the hold environment of the equity and commoditity.
2016-03-07 18:08
Difilculties to most newbie are what level of the impact to related or apply to EACH INDIVIDUALISTIC STOCK.
2016-03-07 18:10
Thats why, i only try to encountered with the company that with as much disclosure i can get, e.g. i3 sifu and most main media or directly from their qtr report.
2016-03-07 18:11
anyone who read this article to completion need to have their head check by specialist. the author himself has failed in his stock recommendation but successful in chartering numerous flights to holland for his followers.
2016-03-07 18:49
Most exporters will experience a lag orders from this qtr , bcoz overseas buyers may want to take advantage from the recent RM appreciation. Hey, juz stay close folks, coz overseas buyer will not take further risk of loosing their market share by doi g so....think how long it will stay this way ?
2016-03-07 19:12
Now, it's only now the speculators will shout big big the impact of recent Rm appreciate to scare away the niwbies; whike speculators are most welcome to collect it at much cheaper level and wait fir the nxt harvesting season.
2016-03-07 19:15
If the Optimus(aka gray, vey gray, laughtodie) family so precise and confidence with their saying, why they only start to shout after market closing 5pm with most counter traded in red ? Why not 2pm, even after 3:30pm juz bfor force selling ? Simply because they r so doubtfull with their view,,, what abt if tomorrow awakening and realised that the export market still doing good on their nxt qtr even with Rm @$3.80-4.00 ? How's that ? Overseas will place their order like crazy bfor Rm surge to higher ground ? Then, different topic of articles will come out, by that time retailers will be bit sad for their selling at too cheap.
2016-03-07 19:56
Export is over, let's move forward, still no a good timing to look back yet.
2016-03-07 21:57
Wait till the margin call n force selling end. Low vol n price not moving for at least two weeks then slowly acc kikiki. In meantime play awc . Ecs . O n g thheavy . Zelan and hovid kikik watch out censof kikiki
2016-03-07 22:37
For those latecomers who are still holding export stocks, please do not continuously live in denial. You're killing suicide slowly but surely if you're being stubborn. Do you know that KYY and OTB are now laughing and dancing in Hawaii after offloding their shares to you. Better wake up now than never!
2016-03-07 22:47
agree with johnnys and shrekk. look at yesterday's top 10 loser chart. Liihen, Latitude and some glove stocks, familiar names recommended by somebody with "noble intention"? and yesterday ringgit was just traded at 4.09 level. can you imagine the damage when it strengthens back below the 4.0 mark?
2016-03-08 08:37
Conclusion is made at 400m when the race competition is 5000m.
It is merely 2 months gone for 12 months of 2016, why so early 盖棺论定？Are we so short sighted or just because of personal agenda of making fun of others? Judge it.
2016-03-08 08:45
Give your opinion on every thing is your choice, but should be on fair ground.
2016-03-08 08:46
Thanks for the quick reminder.
It's easy to get caught in the fear on one side and greed on the other
2016-03-08 17:26
I have weighed in oil price at usd50, and with global factors and domestic factors, i am seeing usd strength. Why not diversify some of our asset in indirectly usd companies
2016-03-09 00:16
i dun think it is a trap.
Now Arab, Russian and other OPEC members have already freeze their production.
Other than that, oil rig of USA have been keep on decreasing from week to week. USA have been closing more than 1,000 unit of oil rig last year.
Currently, USA still have 392 units of oil rig. The number will keep on decreased as the oil rig count from USA been decreased for the 11th consecutive weeks. Last week, USA have closed down another 8 units of oil rig.
Also, last week US Energy Information Administrative (EIA) have reported that USA oil output have been start to decline. It means that the supply from USA company might seem a decline in output starting last week.
So with the continuance of shut down of oil rig in USA and sign of oil output decrease in America, the price might go up further as USA currently is one of the biggest oil producers in the world.
2016-03-09 14:25
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Abismail
Oil in short squeeze....because bank are expose to O&G....junk bond
2016-03-07 14:58