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[转帖] 斤经济较:寻觅成长股(一针见血篇)^^- 夜月

Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 30 May 2014, 01:11 PM
Tan KW
0 501,387
Good.

 

Thursday, 29 May 2014 


 
 
为什么要寻找成长股?
业绩成长的公司,股价很少会不跟着成长的。(一些股票流动量不佳的小公司会有delay
 
成长股是什么?
成长股的重心在于“成长”二字(废话= =)。什么东西成长呢?这时或许有很多专业名词在你的脑海里闪过:ROEROAInventory TurnoverDividend Yield。。。。。。其实没这么复杂。公司最看重的成长只有一个:盈利(profit
 
公司要如何增加盈利?
这个问题看起来很复杂。但是答案非常简单。只有两样东西。第一样就是营业额(Revenue)。营业额增加了,生意做大了,自然盈利会增加。第二样就是盈利率(Profit Margin)。就算营业额保持不变,但是盈利率增加,盈利也会增加。
 
要如何找出营业额会增长的公司?
最先要看的是该公司涉及行业(Industry)的大环境。如果公司涉及的行业目前是属于成长性行业,那么该公司营业额的成长几率会很高。高成长性行业的意思是该行业还有很多潜在客户,市场并还未饱和。
 
要是行业市场已经饱和了呢?
那么要增加营业额,公司有几个方法可以选。第一 打入国外市场。这一招的重点在于国外市场还未饱和。第二 开发新的产品。公司可以开发一些和原本产品相关的其它产品。比如:Nestle的饮料市场已经饱和,可以开发冰淇淋市场。第三 从竞争对手抢市占率。
 
如何从竞争对手手中抢市占率?
这题问题看起来很复杂,其实答案也是很简单。那就是:产品创新和打价格战。当然还有一个方法,就是比长命,等对手自动倒闭。有点像马航和亚航的例子。正所谓:“自己没本事,就等对手出事”^^(宪哥讲的)
 
要如何增加盈利率?
答案很简单,但是做起来很复杂,那就是减少费用(cut cost)。一家公司(生产商)的费用有哪些呢?第一原料。有很多公司的原料都来自可交易商品(commodity),比如:钢铁、石油。。。这些原料的价格都是随着供应和需求而改变的。当原料的价格上涨,而公司又无法将价格转嫁给客户,那么盈利率就会降低。第二生产费用(production cost)。将原料变成货品的过程,每家公司运用的方式和科技都不同。这些不同就会导致生产费用的不同。第三 管理与销售费(Administration and Selling Expense)。和其它竞争对手比较就可以知道这些费用的合理度。第四 利息费用(Interest Expense)。对借贷很多的公司来说,利息费用就占了费用很大巴仙。
 
总的来说,靠研究一间公司的营业额和盈利率的前景,你就可以推算公司未来有多大的成长。
PS: 投资是一项非常有趣的游戏,如果只沦为赚钱的工具,那么就太可悲了。)

http://moonitez89.blogspot.com/2014/05/blog-post_29.html

Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 6 of 6 comments

stockoperator

Revenue Growth is good without incurring much debt or High capital expenditures. Better still is profit growth. The best is without sacrificing any profit margin. Is it any seasonally factor and cyclical factor? if there is, how do we smooth it out? Is cash flow growing at the same pace Or Receivable outpaced the growth rate?

So we are definitely looking forward to quality growth in the long run.

2014-05-30 17:37

kcchongnz

Yeah revenue growth, earnings growth,the only holy grails in investing.

But allow me to pose some questions here:

A company with $100m revenue and $10 million in net income takes on an additional $1 billion in debt and grow its revenue to $500m, after interest costs, earns an additional $10 million, that will increase revenue and earnings by 500% and 100% respectively the following year.

Isn't that a high growth in revenue and earnings? But more importantly, is that growth good or not good, or so so lah?

Please give your substantiations to your answers.

2014-05-31 13:00

inwest88

Hi KC, will you be back sometime int he middle of the year. If you are. let me know. We go for some good food.

2014-05-31 13:51

stockoperator

Hi KC it appears that some of expansion is not yielding expected results. It appears that some segment is lagging or even running at half utilized rate.

Such ambitious expansion is aimed at capturing Big market share fist even with low profit margin. That is How Dog fights. Once market share is captured, they will slowly increased their profit margin.

To me it appears that their plan to capture the market has failed and they are left with scraps to service their debts.

So expansion plan needs proper execution as you know you are using debt and your ROE is low.

2014-05-31 16:00

stockoperator

Worse still if RM10mil net profit (which is only 1% of invested capital) is paper profit. And this invested capital is Debt.

Well, they survive this year. Congratulation.

2014-05-31 16:24

stockoperator

Well even this business proposal is a toll road Business Or first generation power generation Business with all the downside protected and government guarantee, the guaranteed return of 1% of invested capital is Not desired.

2014-05-31 16:42

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