OLDTOWN Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1vrjb5H

My View:-

- Fair value:
  – 5Y DCF:
    – Base Scenario (10%): 1.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Good Scenario (14%): 1.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Bad Scenario (6%): 1.40 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
    – As OLDTOWN aggresively expending its business, I think its FCF growth will be moderate.
    – This shows that OLDTOWN is overvalued or fully valued.
  – Absolute EY%
    – Trailing:   
      – FY14 (EPS: 0.108) – Fair value 1.92 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      – R4Q (EPS: 0.107) – Fair value 1.91 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – Forward:   
      – FY15 (EPS: 0.118) – Fair value 2.1 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      – FY16 (EPS: 0.135) – Fair value 2.41 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.85): 0.104   
    – This model shows that OLDTOWN is currently undervalued.
- In my opinion, downside of OLDTOWN is protected by its FCF, while its growth drivers secure its future earnings.
- Nevertheless, I personally dislike OLDTOWN because of its poor service and food quality.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (27 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1722993

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of OLDTOWN.

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/oldtown-fundamental-analysis-30-sept-2014/