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[转贴] 陈鼎武：外资不捧场．跌势料半年．综指恐回调100点
2017-10-20 18:54
资本投资（ICAP）董事经理陈鼎武看淡马股前景，预计马股在未来3至6个月恐难摆脱跌势，富时综合指数可能向下调整50至100点。
（吉隆坡20日讯）资本投资（ICAP,5108,主板封闭式基金组）董事经理陈鼎武看淡马股前景，预计马股在未来3至6个月恐难摆脱跌势，富时综合指数可能向下调整50至100点。
他在接受《星洲财经》独家专访时表示，富时综指现估值并未遭到低估，也不至于太过昂贵，现有18倍估值合理，但前景并不那么正面，外资也不会蜂拥而至。
前2年盈利涨潮
主因马币走贬
“股价只可能在企业盈利，或估值上调的情况下走高，但估值缺乏外资拥戴，根本无法上调，而2015和2016年掀起的盈利涨潮，主要归功于马币走贬，随着马币靠稳，对企业盈利的催化效果有限。”
因此，他并不预见有任何因素可以推动马股进一步走高。
美连环升息吸走资金
陈鼎武表示，美国货币政策将是马股走势的最大挑战，预见联邦储备局将在今年12月再度升息，加上启动缩表程序，而缩表活动可能延续2至3年，将大大箝制市场流动性。
“此外，联储局也可能在明年升息2至3次，对大马这种仰赖外资、出口和全球经济发展的经济体来说，马股欲走扬的前景非常严峻。”
他说，在未来3至6个月，马股最可能朝跌势发展，富时综指可能盘整50到100点，徘徊于1650点至1700点水平。
“我对富时综指未来3至6个月前景不甚乐观。”
同时，他补充，一旦联储局明年持续升息，这将收窄大马和美国的利差，外资可能倾向投资前景更为稳定的美国，届时这将对马币带来更大压力。
精选“大选股”更重要
询及第14届全国大选对马股的影响，陈鼎武预测全国大选赢家和输家的难度将是前所未有的，对股市对马股带来的催化因素有限。
“除了新选民的倾向所引起的不明因素，执政党和反对党联盟所产生的奇怪政治制约也是其中的因素之一。”
他认为，在这样的情况下，选股将变得异常重要，但预见仰赖马币贬值上位的公司前景不佳，因潜在外汇利多已经不复存在。
“就算马币兑美元从4.20贬至4.30，对公司盈利影响也不会太大，无法重演马币从3.20重贬至4.20对出口所带来的提振效果。”
他说，投资者需确保选股具备资产负债表强稳、业务模式稳定，以及能从金融危机复苏过来的公司。
“中国股市前景最好”
对比马股的悲观，陈鼎武对中国股市前景则无限乐观。
“以长期来说，中国股市的前景最好。”
将投资500万至中国基金
他说，马股以消费品等传统领域投资板块为主，但中国股市却有电动车、人工智能公司等选项，因此将通过资威（Capital Dynamics）投资400万至500万令吉至新成立的中国基金当中。
“美国股市本益比为20倍，中国股市只有13倍，比马股还低，市值占国内生产总值（GDP）比重仅为60%，远低于美国的约170%，这突显出中国股市遭到低估。”
尽管不少外国投资者投资中国股市铩羽而归，但他认为，中国股市占MSCI指数比重仍低，一旦MSCI指数提高中国股市比重，到时中国股市将大涨。
“当所有人对市场都有信心时，股市就会大涨，而这时你已经买在高位了。”
他补充，在30至40年时间内，中国不仅将超越美国，甚至将拉近与美国和欧洲的距离，因此公司赶在中国股市开放前，通过沪深港通抢占先机。
文章来源：
星洲日报／财经 ‧ 独家专访：洪建文 ‧ 2017.10.20
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1693316/陈鼎武：外资不捧场．跌势料半年．综指恐回调100点
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 33 of 33 comments
I have said it once, and i will say it again here. If given the same amount of capital, i can easily whack his ass in terms of ROI. Never play play with value investing.
2017-10-22 11:22
First, he said market crash since 2010.
Then, he changed his stand to bullish, said KLCI would reach 2,300
Now, he changed his stand again.
Is this so called value investment?
2017-10-22 17:15
Sometimes in March or April, he changed to very bullish view. In just few months he changed again. What a coward.
2017-10-22 17:18
this guy is waiting for the next crash then he will go all out. Then he will never be wrong. Very easy to read his pattern. Market might drop just before run up to election and will roar back after election. I have seen it last time. Market down for like 3 days before election..so anxious...alot of ppl thought opposition going to win..but then BN won..KLCI index roar 100 POINTS..
this time BN will also win la most probably with opposition so divided. Ride with the wind..who care about political differences for now..when you can just make money.
2017-10-22 17:39
Buy Bitcoin now
Zimbabwe is trading Bitcoin at 7000 to 9999.99 USD per piece of Bitcoin
TP is 9999
:)
2017-10-22 20:50
Otb easily beat him few streets....Ask him go aside masturbate himself. Still sendiri
2017-10-22 20:52
china market will booming soon especially in semiconductor packaging sector :,)
2017-10-22 21:02
Shout for bear market for at least 5 years..
One of the year ,marketable will be bad...then he hits jackpot.
But one hour for bull market for 5 years and gain very much in this 5 years, am I better than him?
2017-10-22 21:03
He is valuing the market, not valuing the stocks. That's why no point to further argue about his view.
2017-10-22 21:55
anything, up or down might be coming. it is matter of time, keep on talking no point. hide inside the cave . this is life. man come man go. if worry this worry that then put money in the bank, banks also can collapse.
2017-10-23 07:50
no point talking nonsence for few years without any actions. failed fund manager. like this everyone can be fund manager.
2017-10-23 08:04
Investing yr money in FD earning interests (sufficient to pay for his commission) for 5 years to 10 years while waiting for market to crash
What a great biz model...sure win no loss (to him lah not you)
2017-10-23 08:30
Posted by Hengyuan: SEXY BABE RM21! > Oct 22, 2017 08:52 PM | Report Abuse
Otb easily beat him few streets....Ask him go aside masturbate himself. Still sendiri
ME : HAHA, PLANE2016 ALWAYS TALK VULGAR... But, this round give u a like.
Kikiki
2017-10-23 08:38
He is still the best, doing nothing, blow water every now & then and yet earn 6 mil every year, OTB naik jet pun tak boleh overtake.
2017-10-23 22:46
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2017-10-22 04:36