恒源 HENGYUAN - 个人观点
Q3业绩重点
> Q3销售量额外提升0.6m桶油
> Q3平均销售价USD63.5/桶,高于去年USD48.8
> Q3库存收益USD2.64/桶,高于去年USD0.76,以及Q2的USD1.71亏损
> 累积9个月平均炼油赚幅大约USD8/桶
> 受惠于墨西哥湾飓风以及欧洲大型炼油厂的火灾事故
> 展望 - 根据市场的期货价格和炼油赚幅,炼油赚幅在短期内预计走低
> 外汇收益 – RM49.5m,期货收益 – RM3.2m
> 每股净资产 从Q2的RM4.41提升至目前的RM5.53 (+RM1.12)
> FY17至今创造RM737m营运现金,目前还有RM1.3b债务,手持RM898m现金
> 由于构建主要设备的时间长于预期, Euro4M Mogas项目的完工日期将被延迟 (原本日期 – 1H18)
> 继续为明年Q3进行的重大维修工程做准备,预计耗时2.5个月的时间。因此,FY18的生产活动及销售将下滑
> 依然还没支付任何税务,相信在明年Q1就必须开始缴付
目前,Brent原油价格企稳在每桶USD60以上,而Mogas 92炼油赚幅也徘徊于每桶USD10左右。如无意外,HY的Q4盈利可至少介于RM200-300m之间。
保守估计,假设HY可在全年交出RM800m税前盈利,在缴付24%税务之后,其税后盈利将会是RM608m,相等于每股RM2.03盈利。再以8倍PE推算,HY的每股潜在价值是RM16.21。
随着美国参议院税改投票通过,以及OPEC同意延长原油减产协议至2018年底,之前保持谨慎而不敢轻举妄动的投资者有望重新进入市场。本专页预计HY可至少在周一攀升至RM11水平。
#HENGYUAN
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no need to be so bullish,
Lets say EPS Q4 is just 0.80, Full yr EPS will be 3.20
P/E apply only 7, TP-22.40
EPS Q4=0.60, EPS full yr 3.02, P/E 7=21.14
EPS Q4=0.50, EPS full yr 2.92, P/E 7=20.44
any low only EPS, and P/E, still the price target is near RM20,
Thts 78.5%!!!!!
2017-12-07 14:06
27%-28% tax rate will be more safer, they will be a lot unallowable expenses.
PBT RM 800mil
PAT RM 576mil
EPS RM 1.92
P/E 8 (Petronm)
TP RM 15 (in 3 months maybe, but not now)
Uncertainty,
1.Brent oil price 61.39
2.Crack spread movement
2017-12-07 14:12
OTB sir, yes, should apply 8x to HENGYUAN. Market will give 8x p/e ratio to HENGYUAN gradually in next year, I think.
2017-12-07 14:19
All syiok sendiri. China discovered the largest oil reserve recently. China is not going to import anymore. Instead, China will export.
2017-12-07 14:26
Further more, Hengyuan has been delaying to upgrade it's refinery as lack of capital. The deadline given by our Gov is riped within 9 months time. Wait and see!
2017-12-07 14:28
Ooi Teik Bee
Please note that there is an unabsorbed tax credit of RM 1.1 billion, hence FY 2017, there is no such tax of 24%.
FY 2017 EPS cannot be 2.03. Presently for 3 quarters, EPS is already 2.41. I expect Q4 2017 EPS to be 1.00. Full year EPS for 2017 is 3.41.
PER = 8, target price is 27.28.
Please check again your calculation.
Thank you.
Ooi
2017-12-07 13:31