Valuations matter, Really?

I am not about to convince you that valuations do not matter but valuations have a wide acceptable range and whilst a sense of valuations is useful it is no panacea, no guarantee for success in the stock market. A necessary but insufficient condition to justify confidence.

Too many uncertainties, too many unknowns and where to find convictions when prices go against you? How you know your valuations are right and the market valuations are wrong?

Hundreds of full time analysts in Malaysia nowadays. They are paid a salary and a full time job to analyse shares. If they cannot do a good job, what makes you think you can do a good job?

Out of 100 value investors, after one year, two years, three years, five years, ten years.........the end result of the 100 value investors will differ greatly, spanning the whole range of possibilities.

As for the results of these value investors, are they consistent over time, ? consistent by individuals, ? or random? fooled by randomness? that ceratin individuals , certain strategies do well in certain eras, the combinations are indeed infinite....and no way of knowing ahead of time. What people have are horse before cannon....boasting after the event.

What is the evidence of any co relationship between results and knowledge of valuation methods? Between value investors and throwing of darts anyway?

Repeatability of portfolio performance  is not about valuation methods employed......but about employing portfolio theories in its management.

Valuations matter? Really?

People have lost half their money buying steel counters at PE 8 last year, now trading at PE 3....and people have made 100% gains buying Vitrox at high PE, now  PE 30 after making 100% gain.

Valuations matter? Really?

How long do you intend to hold the shares anyway? One week? One month? One year? Five years? Ten years?

Some one should do research and tell us what is the average  holding period for retailers in Malaysia?

The truth is that in most cases, speculations gone wrong become long term investments. Long term investments is a result of speculations gone wrong, not an objective for most participants.

Definitely, especially among retailers, holding period in Bursa is much less than in NYSE or LSE. There are huge differences between Bursa and NYSE/ LSE.

Bursa have tried for many years already but without much success to increase participation by millennials .  Bursa is still a baby boomer generation activity. Millennials are more attracted by bitcoins, by start ups, crowd fundings and newer and trendier stuffs.

Know what I think?

I think most of what people read and write about is just nonsense. More noise than good advise. I think experience is the best teacher, let them experience it themselves, what don't kill you will benefit you. I think people are smart and they should think for themselves, should be encouraged to think.

I think people should Think Different....that what the majority thinks is usually wrong and literally useless.

Value investors, contrarian investors

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/165703.jsp

do u start with the price/ valuation or do u start with what you want / like?

I think misers and losers start with price/ valuations.....and winners start with what they want / like.........

 loves this


http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/guru/166204.jsp