at this price, sbb is better than div no?

CharlesT

I think Jon can do better in Yoga or other biz than stocks.

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Hope so. In general, i think there is no point to do business and take on all the stress, workload etc, unless you are looking at 3-4x higher returns that investing in market.

But, its also quite fun.

PureBULL ...

choivo, ur action tells u oso give up on KLSE stocks, yes or YES?
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Not really, around 30% of portfolio in malaysia. Its just that overseas markets have so much more compelling opportunities.

Haha no idea.

I only hold a few positions in malaysia now. Mostly overseas. I like MFCB, IFCA, Yinson, Oriental kopi (when list see how), SOP at current prices.

Basically spend alot less time studying stocks (though i still do as i love it), mostly working on my businesses.

One is a yoga studio opening soon, come visit haha.

value_invest

3/4 have hit 1st oil only minimine part of the early risk elements- there are many others variable risks involved, operationally, currency, financial and unforeseen risk ... This is my concern....Super High leverage and financing cost leave the company little room for mistake. Yinson now operate like PE funds,,, high leverage for More projects. There is no right or wrong for the company... They can hit jackpot if Execution is perfectly done along the ways, we assume NO another oil crisis, counter party default, well operational oil field etc...
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Agree having said that

1) Loans are non recourse, secured against the ship
2) Oil prices being low is not a problem, their fields have super low BOE profit points. So basically not likely that customer stop production
3) Counterparty, their counterparties are super strong.
4) Disaster etc, there is insurance.

The rest of it, well, there is risk in everything, however, in general it seems well covered.

Having said that, its quite possible for yinson to show ugly numbers this year due to

1) Agogo first sail in March 2025, interest and depreciation cost start then. But only first oil by end of 2025, due to comissioning, testing, approval

2) Drawdown of the RCPS starts in march 2025. So itnerest also starts unless they quickly win a project to start so can capitalise the interest cost etc.

Correct, this is the debt portion, secured against the ship. But rmbr, banks wont lend 100%, they will ask you for deposit also.

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Yinson Production completes USD 1.3 billion debt financing for the Agogo FPSO

2 May 2024 — The financing is provided by a consortium of 13 lenders, including international banks and institutional investors, and will be utilised over ...

Imaging from yinson perspective.

I have a USD1.3b contract. I need USD300m equity and borrow USD1b to fund the project.

I dont have the USD300m now, what do i do?

1) Dont do, sit there and wait, collect money from current projects. But then, what does you project team/suppliers who did the huge projects with you do if there is no jobs?
2) Right issues, but your shareholders will hate it.
3) Do placement, but your share price is not at a level where you want to dilute yourself more.
4) Do rcps/mezz, banks are ok but rate is 13%.

With this RCPS, they can effectively do another 3-4 USD1.5bn jobs without raising any equity.

13% seems high, but raising money from right issue is also risky and opportunity cost of for equity is around there. And in this rcps, they can actually just defer everything and dotn pay cash if they dont want to.

Ofc if screw up, they rank above equity in a liquidation.

Now, upside for these 3-4 jobs is around RM300-400m each in pat, so around 1.2-1.5b profit.

Mean while your current jobs producting cashflow incl agogo will give cf of RM3b, use 2b reduce debt, the rest for buybacks and divs.

Now, ofc why not do it like mfcb, slowly do one project, collect money, do the next. But this is much slower.

and also what makes us think FSPO market will be in shortage forever, now market is greatly in your favour, people offering you 18-19% IRR projects. You want to be sigining them as much as you can now.

Yinson management thinks like a US private equity firm. Which means highly agressive but very sharp. And so share price increase 50x in 14 years. While mfcb up around 7x in 14 years.

Take your pick, want it slow and steady go mfcb, want it big and fast go yinson.

I Hold both.

This is fact of life for any oil and gas company unfortunately.

Which is why its also a sellers maket for FSPO business.
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For any business, the 9.625% of financing cost for bond and 12.95%- 13.5% coupon rate for RCPS are considered at very HIGH if you take the financing cost into the investment-return equation.

In fact, this has left the company very little room for any mistake in managing the risk, e.g. countries risk, execution risk, currency and counter-party risk, just to name fews. Any minor of the mistake in execution can severely impact the company bottom line.

Posted by CharlesT > 7 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Anyway, glad to see Jon is still alive n active in stock mkt

How's yr fund management biz?

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Stop doing much fund management, mostly for friends and family. these days im doing business.

For me I also don't like company wasting cash for SBB and then raise cash with borrowing/Bond/RPS with very high interest rate.

Yinson should stop all these wasteful utilisation of capital and raise cash in foreign market with high interest rate.

Yinson should raise cash in Malaysia either from shareholders or Malaysia capital market that will benefit Malaysia and shareholders.

I for one will q overnight and bought their bond issued with such a high interest rate

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Malaysia cant really do USD bonds, and they must do USD bonds to match with USD revenue, otherwise need to hedge.

Bonds secured against the ship is 9%. add hedging etc, you basically get to 12-13%, except its a bond. And this is a huge bond. RM7b almost.

When was the last time malaysia launched a Rm7b bond that is not by CIMB or Maybank?

My concern is why all those bond issuers treated their bond as junk bond grade with much higher coupon rate...

Philip's theory is that this is a very positive scenario as it shows Yinson is capable of paying high coupon rate to show their financial strength..

Do u buy his theory?

1 day ago
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This is not a bond or a loan. It does not carry the usual convenants etc. Its RCPS, and so its treated as equity and unsecured, so its 12-13%.

Also, the reason they willing to accept 12-13% rcps is due to the contracts giving better returns than this, and again, very little recourse, treated as basically equity,


Again, the lending market is completely closed to oil and gas businesses. And Malaysians banks got burnt so badly from sapura kencana and bumi armada, that there is absolutely zero appetite for the lending money to oil and gas, much less ships regardless of rates.

Hibiscus could only get loans from vitol, an oil trader. Not from malaysian banks. Literally impossible.

The sneaky Jon managed to run fm his Serbak Bond at some minor losses I think.

I think Philip only cut later....
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Small profit, but not proud of it. I thought serbadk had something wrong, and thought maybe the malaysia side is fine.

But, i actually didnt know heads or tail of the business/problem and should have never bought anything. Thank god i sold in basically 2 days after i buy.

I thought Bond 9.625% is oredi very bad, now RCPS with 12.95%- 13.5% coupon rate....omg...

Anyway for existing Yinson shareholders no worries...u hv beautiful profit projections in yr sweet dreams...

And 2 cents div in real life

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Up to you. Its a hugely cashflowing business, that can reinvest every cent at high returns.

But yes, given the huge size of the Agogo, Atlanta (done), Mary Quitera (done), Anna Nery (done), these contracts were something like 10x the size of their historical orderbooks, they were running on pretty decently high risk if there was any problem with the construction etc.

But now that 3/4 have hit first oil, most of the risk is behind us. Left agogo. But im sure the management will get another 1-2 big deals in 2025 given the financing is in place now.

The conversion for the RCPS is interesting, the higher the share price, the less the dilution.

CharlesT

BTW, Bumi Armada's bond issued in 2024 comes with 6.35% coupon rate...

1 day ago

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Its issued in 2014, different world. Today financing market is closed to oil and gas.

Read the deal in detail, its pretty good. Conversion price at close to 50% higher than today share price.

Through my many interactions with them, i have a strong confidence in their thought processes and business thinking, so its quite likely they have found a way to do it very well, likely via certain fruits/vegetables/herbs, that have very different margin profile etc, due to different methods of growth, geographic constraints, supply/demand mismatch etc.


BursaVulture

To be honest, I am not a fan of indoor farming or vertical farming or whatever they call it. Most greenhouse farming simply doesn't work. I am still holding MFCB and will continue to do so, I hope if things doesn't work out, they will shut it down. But I hope they succeed.

I hope they are smart enough to plant Herbs, Onions, Mushrooms and etc. Dont compete with those in Cameroon, compete with food we import, if they are able to scale, our gov might help out without hurting the small farmers in Malaysia.

I think you didnt get the right lesson from PBA.

From PBA the lesson is this. For fixed tariff businesses, people get depressed over a very long time, because cost everyday go up, but tariff does not, resulting in lower and lower profit each year.

At some point, the lower profit results in lower maintenance and thus more problem pops up, necessitating an increase in tariff. When tariff increases, the operational leverage results in a huge increase in the share price.

The other thing to keep track of is lower cost of materials in fixed tariff industry, which is basically coal back in 2015 for TNB.

Hibiscus 11,800 / 30%
Yinson-wa 68900 / 30%
Mynews 38400 / 20%
MFCB 2700 / 10%
MBMR 2300 / 10%

UncleFollower

I think odds for yinson to double before warrant expires in 2025 is pretty decent. If that happens, you get 6x if you take warrants.

But the risk is that, oil price crashes, sentiment is bad, and so despite executing, share price goes down and stays even, and so you lose 100% of the warrant.

High risk, high gain game :)

Ofc lets not forget, fire risk, accident risk, natural disaster risk. All this is quite real in FSPO business, though it has not impacted yinson yet.

By buying shares, you only make 2x if yinson executes and market sentiment normal, but you can hold onto the shares if anything happen.

I would disagree. YTL and YTLP just happen to have good sentiment now.

Just give it a few Q.

the warrants do seem abit interesting.

Chickens die.

hahaha

Speakup, wanna bet?

How is their dyson contracts, from what i know their pricing is losing out to the vietnamese.

Thanks, ive been out of msian markets for too long, only holding, hibiscus, mfcb and yinson. And missed this.

Very interesting, thanks. Look at oppstar when you have the time.

I still think on expected value across the range of possibilities is positive at this price. But i dont need the variance and i have better ideas.

I sold sometime back for USD41 to buy nagacorp. Cannot sleep even if hold bond haha. Got better ideas with better risk reward.

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CharlesT https://www.bondsupermart.com/bsm/bond-factsheet/XS2089155761

Indicative Bid Price 29+...below Philip n John's cost
15/09/2021 12:20 PM

It appears that people here are quoting my name and article alot.

I would like to say, its not so clear cut. After some deep study, i think the odds are more like 50/50 on Karim being legitimate.

I've bought a small position in the 2022 bonds at 40 cents on the dollar.

Good luck.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/hhe/2021-05-05-story-h1564288512-Mynews_outlets_retired_and_replaced_with_CU_Stores.jsp

I dont think people realize how big of a gamechanger this is.

MCO again? Good for Mynews.

Now all the shops no revenue anyway, makes it easier to just shut a few down and convert.

This is very good news

Knowing how talented he is, he will somehow lose money again, and then blame me.

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Chang Yee Fong WallStreetRookie So passive aggressive.
06/05/2021 3:26 PM

wallstreetrookie Go go go we make money at Choivo recommendation. I don't care about fundamentals I just want my gains
06/05/2021 3:22 PM

?

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dompeilee Chiovo & gang already distributed 2 u naive newbies already lo...u think he's so charitable 2 diligently do write up for you ppl 2 make $$$ meh? He pocket ur money first lo ...lol
27/04/2021 10:14 AM

Regardless of what people say (its very easy to find articles to support whatever viewpoint you desire),

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/category/shipping-news/dry-bulk-market/

You can keep track on all the news here, and make up your own mind.

:)

I like gkent, but i didnt like it after they said they going into gloves.

Market is forward looking

Well, last q lost 10m, today went up 1%

Pity i woke up late, couldnt get some 83 sen.

But honestly, considering how fast it rose last 2 weeks, today drop is so small, it looks like consolidation lol.

as expected, the drop not so bad, alot of big buyers

I think we need to note a few things.

No 1, has there been alot of retailer interest in this stock? Look at the comments at I3, just us few people keep comment only. I dont think so.

So where is the interest coming, well, its the fund houses. Aberdeen is the most obvious one, and their research is flowing out.

No 2, This quarter, basically the entire quarter kena MCO/CMCO, so revenue and profit down. Now, despite bad results, stock price every day up. Why is this the case, i dont believe the fund houses dont have lubang to know if earnings good or bad.

Chances are market is pricing in the future, which is vaccine, less movement controls and CU store.

You want to buy Family Mart now, you need to pay 70PE and also buy a whole chicken business. You want to buy SEM,, go pay 50 PE bah. You want buy Mynews and CU, less than 20 times normalized earnings.

I'm ok, ill hold and wait. See everyone on 1 April at the new CU store in centrepoint.

This company is quite linked to how restrictive travelling is. So i expected a loss. To be fair, the impact of the restriction is higher than what i expect.

Having said that, as the restrictions loosen continually moving forward, along with the news of the vaccine and the first CU store opening 1 April, and more to come during the year. Im quite ok with the company.

https://choivocapital.com/2018/11/28/the-art-of-valuing-insurance-companies-and-why-teh-hong-piow-is-a-god-lpi/

the thing people need to know is this.

Among all insurance co in msia, the absolute worst is MNRB, for everybody who wants to buy MNRB, there are so many institutions dying to sell.

Good luck.

investment banks and funds waking up d.

https://fb.watch/4fY8Epg-Nh/

One lorry worth Rm750mil is it?

The whole thing is packed with dry ice, just need to move it on a lorry. The lorry take a few trips per day for 1 week.

Since 3 phase, its 3 weeks, make the company worth RM750m more is it?



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Posted by Flying Fox > Feb 22, 2021 2:01 PM | Report Abuse

Malaysia government do no need your sense to do their business

amtheng they are the largest CCL in Malaysia and it doesn't make sense for MOH not to utilise them. There are still other vaccines to be distributed as well. You're aware DHL services doesn't come cheap and probably paid for by Pfizer to ensure the delivery goes well for the 1st batch.
22/02/2021 1:01 PM

Btw, insiders have told me training of staff for CU stores done. Reno all almost d. Opening end of feb to 1st week of March.

Just rumors cause stock prices to fly 20-30% in 1 week. What if actual picture of muyihaddin and other politicians taking vaccine show up?

Limpeh just going to hold, you remember Dec when vaccine news out, but in the end petered out as govt said will need more time.

Now confirm receive on 26 Feb, and will distribute right away.

You think go up or down then? Now price all time low, risk all time low.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/malaysia-covid-19-vaccines-pfizer-biontech-noor-hisham-14087814