In sorry, your timeline and my timeline is very different. My investment in 2019/2020 has already returned me 60% over a year with a return of 6.7m over a 11m capital employed. For me that return is more than enough to wait through o&g return to positive earnings in 2024 and beyond.

I don't know about your trading methods, but for me the rational thing is to buy o&g stocks now when no one even wants to look at it. It is currently the lowest price it has been on in 19 years.

The last time oil prices were this low was when I lost everything during the Asian financial crisis.

The average 10 year price was around 65. In the long run, oil prices will definitely recover even though now it may not seem that way. There will be a huge consolidation after the bankruptcy and closure of multiple o&g companies. Those that survive will see a lot of long term growth after the consolidation.

I don't know exactly when this will happen. But I am confident in the long term that this will happen.

I think if you were unable to predict that gloves would do so well this year, and buy big into glove stocks, then you will also be unable to predict what will happen 6 months and 1 year from now.

But my method is far simpler. There are only a few companies that are captains of industry. Even in o&g industry there are companies which are growing and making profits even through this oil crisis. At the low prices which they are selling for, all I have to do is buy them when entire world doesn't want them. The dividends and my past earnings is enough to pay for my daily needs ( which can be very low I realized after mco), 5 years from now, you can bet your bottom dollar that the o&g industry will look far brighter.

No one knows the answer everything is just an estimation. That is why you need to take the good and the bad and make your decision.

If you decide to buy Jaks based on power plant alone, then you have to understand the business in entirety because that is what you are investing in.

If everyone know the answer then all sure kaya already. We are working on incomplete information, you have to weigh the risks involved.

But here is a true answer for you. If DK66 and OTB is 100% sure of the results, they would have sold everything, take up 100% margin and put everything in Jaks, buying at the low and selling at the high. Sslee will not be commenting, i3lurker will be keeping quiet.

But as long as there is uncertainty, everyone need to invest in a safe and controlled manner which reduces risk.

Do you know the answer?

Buying stocks is SCARY. So why don't you make it less scary by doing your own research, instead of listening to the sifus you like and scolding those that don't agree with you.

It is very clear from your tone that you already have money in buying Jaks. So obviously anyone who likes jaks will be your friend, and those who don't like Jaks is your enemy.

Stop thinking like that. Everyone here who gives an opinion is helping you build a better picture of Jaks and it's future.

Make YOUR mind and your own research, don't turn off your brain and just use other brain.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Do you know the answer ?
if you know , then say it out , loud and clear , in a most straightforward language
don't have to make it so mysterious to scare people .

Sslee here makes a good point.

If you wish to present your points, once is enough. Aseng keeps trying to argue and get the whole world to see his point, what is the purpose?

In the end both sslee, i3lurker, DK66, OTB etc are all using their best estimation and research on incomplete information. The possibility of it going wrong or right is why it is called investing and trading.

The point here is, you can say whatever you want, but until the results come up in 2021, you do not know if you are going to be right or wrong.

One simple example, your irr of 12% will all go out the window, if the power plant does not complete by November 2020, when the LAD will start to come into play. This was the same case that happened during Star issue.

Will a LAD occur? I do not know.

So there is no point arguing and shooting up and down. Just agreeb to disagree and let results speak for itself. If you are proven correct, then you can jump and laugh talk you want.

It's easy for Howard gold to say. It's easy to allocate capital when you are managing small sums. Turning 1 dollar into 2 in one day is simple. Turning 100 billion to 200 billion in one day is a far better magic trick.

It's like the MLM game where one recruits 5 who recruits 5 more to join the company. After the 7 or 8 round, you pretty much have the entire planet.

Being able to perform as well as they did over the period of time with the increasing capital allocation is already impressive enough.

But then again, everyone makes mistakes. The difference is warren knows exactly how and when to pull the trigger, which is even more impressive.

Contrast that to individuals like bill ackman, who let their ego get ahead of them and chased bad investments into the ground.

Buying is easy. Knowing when to sell takes real skill.


>>>>>>

Posted by qqq33333333 > May 15, 2020 10:29 PM | Report Abuse

end of Bufalo era?


lecturers and authors cannot use old banner...how?


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dud-stock-picks-bad-industry-bets-va...

Haha, i3lurker, my buying price for gloves is far far far lower than yours. My returns and share price increase have already far exceeded what I expected it to come in 2 years from now.

Speculators like you are buying on news, you will end up selling on earnings results.

I have been buying and holding glove stocks far longer than you have been investing

I think I will keep a record of your claims to amuse myself on how trolls are rarely rational. When things are going great they see it never ending. And when things are not doing so well, they think the company and industry will go bankrupt.

But the fact of the matter is your investment results reflect your rationality.

And irrational as you are, with your comments and claims, you are just a small gas blowing hot air. You have much to learn about investing.

At rm18-19, you are saying topglove will be worth 56 billion ringgit, with pe of 169.

As sslee is so fond of applying this weird concept, it will take you 169 years to get back your investment.

Then again, you may be fond of collecting tulips. If that is the case, you can join kyy, calvintaneng, stockraider, qqq3 in speculating on glove stocks. I'm sure you will be in great company and will do absurdly well.

Just remember timing the market is silly if you don't have a crystal ball.

>>>>>>

Posted by i3lurker > May 15, 2020 10:09 PM | Report Abuse

sslee

thats good news that Philip sold all cheap

coz TopGlove may power up from current RM10 to RM18 ~ RM19

coz you know IB always very conservative
and share prices may exceed IB TP = 13.30 it is normal

I would rather play with the certainty of TIME instead of timing the market. In the long run, oil selling at -37 USD is not normal but a very rare occurance.

If you assume that this will be the new normal and oil prices will always be low, then I believe TIME will prove you wrong.

In any case, by looking at the beaten down industry and choosing the wonderful company that no one wants to pay a high price anymore to own, I can build up a much larger position without causing a liquidity flux. By the time the position is built, the O&G market would have recovered.

My timeline for O&G stocks is 24 dec 2024. If what I believe is true, and many more oil companies will go under, the consolidation of prices will be far swifter than expected, and those companies left standing will benefit greatly when the consolidation comes.

As I cannot know when Covid will end, just as I cannot know when oil prices will go up, I prefer to just invest in wonderful companies at fair prices and wait while enjoying my dividends.

As for trading in a band and doing short term trades, have you looked at the commissions and costs that I pay for my positions? It makes no sense giving out hundreds of thousands in commissions (you can look at the costs I pay on average in my transactions group) for trading activities, which win 6/10 trades most of the time on average.

For playing small money I think it is ok. But if you are trading with far larger sums, the costs alone will kill you.

I paid almost 200K in commissions on my stock investments YOY.

That is a pretty penny to pay for trying to time the market.

>>>>>>>>

U should try to sell OnG stocks on spike or spurt up.
OIL just crashed weeks ago. these stocks at best could trade in a band, if u know how to max those #.

My reasoning for holding serbadk Warrants versus just buying the stock is as below:

Listing Date: 13 Dec 2019
Maturity Date: 05 Dec 2024
Number of warrants: 881,099,921
Exercise Price: MYR 2.6200

As I believe that at my current per warrant prices now of 0.237 per share, with 21 million warrants in my hand, I would be able to convert it all at the latest date of 5 dec 2024, which is within my expectations of conversion. As paying a cost of RM2.86 to buy a share of serbadk 4 years from today is a cheap investment in my opinion for a company that is guiding towards growing 15% in 2020 and onwards.

https://e-serbadk.com/serba-dinamik-lowers-target-growth-to-15serba-dinamik-agih-pek-makanan-rm500000-kepada-petugas-barisan-hadapan/

If they can keep the growth up, at a 4.5b revenue and 500m earnings guidance,
for FY2020, they are targeting 5.1b in revenue, 575m earnings
for FY2021, they are targeting 5.9b in revenue, 661m earnings
for fy2022, they are targeting 6.8b in revenue, 760m earnings

if we assume 5 billion shares dilution by 2024, and consistent growth trajectory with a PE20, an estimate share price of RM3.2 by 2025, paying 5 million is a reasonable cost for holding 21 million shares of something that I would have bought in the first place, with the added possibility of a upward swing on market rerating should the business perform better than expected.

In my opinion, Serba the company is running on the same legs as baker hughes and haliburton in its growth stage, by building up competency in its offices around the world, producing and training its own team of servicemen and software application in O&M services to increase efficiency. If they keep on the same track record and increasing its competency and footprint around the world in the same way, I don't see why the overall addressable market for serba cannot reach the same level.

I think Serba can definitely be a USD 4 billion company in the long run, if it is run as efficiently as haliburton (previously USD20b company) and baker hughes (USD30b company), but it depends on how serba comes out of this oil and covid crisis.

Sold my last batch of topglove at 10.20 @ 523.8K shares. I must say, this covid has really got me spooked. I usually prefer to hold shares as long as possible, but with the super speculative demand for glove counters + the fact that almost everyone has sold all their O&G stocks to pile into gloves, means that rationally, I have to sell, especially when the speculation is so great. I have shifted fully into cratered O&G stocks, GKENT and QL over this period as the stocks with a huge growth potential but still selling at a reasonable price. It has been a great 10 year ride, but sometimes when you have to make choices on what stocks to buy and what to sell.

My O&G picks for the next 5-10 years are those that are unaffected by the price of oil, or will greatly benefit from a low price/ high supply low demand environment:

1. Serba Dinamik - O&M works supplier. A muslim company working in muslim nations where oil price is still profitable selling at low prices compared to the rest of the world. And they pay no tax over there, via labuan connection.
2. Yinson - Charter rates and day payment with firm long term contracts. As the awarded contracts have not been canceled yet, and they always need a place to store oil in the current environment, Yinson should be looking to profit greatly.
3. PCHEM - Low prices of raw materials equals higher margins in sales prices. With averaging down in prices to further lows, my average cost has dropped to RM6.3 per share. As the IPO price for pchem was RM5, and I have managed to buy a bulk of my shares below IPO prices, I think I am very confident of a good return in the future once PIC goes full production. YTD I have received 36 cents in dividend, bringing me almost 760K in dividends to date. I can afford to wait it out.

My estimates is for the market to recover within the next 2-3 years to normal level (oil prices at 47+), and for the share price confidence to return.

Who knows, with China figures coming up fast and relevant, this may be a really short sneeze instead.

Hi popo92, macro economics is way way out of my expertise or ability to forecast. Frankly, I have no idea how to country economy will do, as there are just too many variables. I could have one opinion, then one well placed riot and change of government will change everything. Not my cup of tea.

how is serba dinamik an artificial intelligence company?>???

I don't know. Did you validate your account? I am only changing my last name in the selection tool.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by RainT > May 15, 2020 12:37 PM | Report Abuse

@philip

why u can always change your user name & still using old account in i3 investor?

I can understand how you feel, I was also more than 1 million paper loss, but having the conviction in GKENT and buying 4 million of shares in march when the price dropped below 50 cents gave me the confidence to average down.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp
>>>>>>>


SHQuah Still holding with paper loss more than half a million. Use to getting good dividend. Hopefully can recover next year and continue giving dividend.
15/05/2020 7:31 AM

Sold 400k shares of topglove@10.32, bought gkent 0.63, yinson 5.15, serbadk-wa 0.25

Now this is a well written totally unbiased article.

Kudos Sslee.

In the absence of real concrete results, I believe it is safer to use the most conservative figure available. At least that way when the real results come up you can be pleasantly surprised instead of aggressive investing based on anticipated good results and very shocked.

Don't worry, don't need you to teach me to buy and sell stocks.

You hold star too long I already laughing lo. Sslee already sold with 50% profit but small volume. I sold at 30% profit but much larger volume.

My topglove sales the more I sell the more the value keep going up, but don't worry, my profit in one year already 60+% for a pe50 stock.

But traders like you, kcchongnz, choivo and Ricky yeoh will never buy a pe50 stock right?

I already hold Topglove for 10 years lo, in all that time the share price going up steadily based on performance. Now the price is going up is based on speculation, I think I will keep to my own methods and sell off slowly.

Your sapura energy until now how come not yet reach rm3 one? Your NETX how come until now still not yet 8 cents one?

You still got money buy glove stocks?



>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > May 14, 2020 2:41 PM | Report Abuse

Then there is a fourth category a sohai who complaining on everything including a good guy who write a book....in the course of this sohai keep complaining...he over look opportunity & lost focus on the art of making monies loh....!!

If you are receiving 6% dividend every year to hold with SBB, I don't see any problem buying it cheap in the short term and enjoying the long term profits.

If you really want to count here is the timeline:

2020 - final progress claim for hospitals and vo work for lrt
2021 - MRT2 trail system contract 1 billion,
2023 - Honeywell smart water meter technology transfer water meter earnings guidance 50%
2024 - Lrt3 completion and profit

So, we have clear orderbook for the next 5 years of more than 7 billion to gkent.

Patience is the key.

But when it comes time to buy, will you want to?

>>>>>>>>>>

HQuah Don't know have to hold for how long ? 2 years or 5 years ? But how many 10 years do we have ?
13/05/2020 5:46 PM

If you are receiving 6% dividend every year to hold with SBB, I don't see any problem buying it cheap in the short term and enjoying the long term profits.

If you really want to count here is the timeline:

2021 - MRT2 trail system contract 1 billion,
2023 - honey well new smart meter contract
2024 - Lrt3 contract
2025- to monitor onwards

>>>>>>>>>>

HQuah Don't know have to hold for how long ? 2 years or 5 years ? But how many 10 years do we have ?
13/05/2020 5:46 PM

Sslee, I have zero issue with individuals posting their articles. Look at teoct, even though he writes articles decrying QL, I gave him a like and even started a position in the China milk industry.

What I have zero patience for is those who keep writing articles and repeating my investments are bad just because they are pe50.

So if you are able to write great stories, if you don't post your results to match the blogs articles I have no issue whatsoever.

But insulting others and commenting on their stock picks at the same time to push their own agenda, I find that repulsive. For those that seek to gain credit by discrediting others, I found it important to scuttlebutt and understand the confidence from where their investment theories lie.

Like yourself, I would not bother to comment at all, but for the fact that you seem to like defending INSAS not by commenting on INSAS share price, it's growth in earnings and returns in the long run, but by commenting on QL, gkent and Pchem results instead.

I don't mind these discussions, but in the end it has to be based on the reality of financial results, and I believe my pe50+ stocks in QL and topglove by now ( held over a very long time) should have expanded by now the concept of understanding businesses instead of just using pe, net assets and debt as a means of validating the long term performance of a company.

Flexibility yes, openness yes, but in finance and investing it is a very dangerous weapon if used without understanding.

If someone told you they can fly, and they can teach you or to fly, and all you have to do is buy a book and jump out the window and you can fly as well.

My recommendation is to ask him to show you that he can actually fly first before jumping out that window.

If you do not agree that having a portfolio is paramount in investing in someone's advice, I can give you 4 fund managers that have approached me to manage my money recently and their articles and prospectus. You can choose any one of them. After that I will give you their portfolio results and you can see which articles you loved best and if their 5 year results matched their words.

Thank you.

Attacking you personally would be to call you names and laughing at your investments.

I HUMBLY BEG YOUR FORGIVENESS FOR EXPOSING YOUR INCONSISTENCIES AS AN INVESTOR, STOCK SUBSCRIPTION SELLER AND FICTIONAL BOOK WRITER.

I did have to learn a lesson myself, by exposing Ricky yeoh, Jon choivo and kcchongnz credibility by highlighting the lack of a results based approach to writing, they have written substantially less. This is both good and bad for the i3 community.

It would be like my criticizing Mary buffett for her speaking tour, her 3 bestsellers on investing by asking a simple question: if we removed the buffett daughter in law tag, what would are your portfolio returns over the last 10 years?

That would be wrong and hurtful.

I humbly apologize kcchongnz.

I stop now before I do more damage to the community.

I was about to write an article on your stock picks over the last 6-7 years as many have emailed to me their experiences with your subscription and portfolio returns. I have built an entire portfolio results analysis.

But in the end, I no longer think it is right or worth it. The MCO is about fixing problems, not expanding them. DK66 and teoct did teach me a few good lessons.

Have a good weekend.


>>>>>>>>>>>>

So, the problem is above? Someone sharing that a stock is overvalued with some good reasoning and you considered it as a bashing of yourself? And you will start to even attack him personally?

OMG. What kind of character are you?

So yes, I believe I am very good at analysis and understanding business ( and people) to find the inconsistencies.

I also understand the importance of maintaining a portfolio, not to show sausages, but to track my own results, failures, successes in a very fair way for readers out there.

KYY puts his heart on the table, every success every failure. We can and should respect that.

Trolls like sslee and i3lurker are those with promoting articles or taking bad about everything, but looking at their promote stock performance, based on financial results one knows to take them seriously or not.

As for kcchongz, I believe I have had done enough explanation. He is someone I used to think was a reliable sifu on i3 with good writings.

Then when I saw his article dont buy stock picks services ( but he himself had done it for multiple years) I felt sick to my stomach.

This is the last comment I will leave on any of his articles.

I believe the results of QL and Topglove during this crisis ( both pe50+ stocks) and the subsequent margin fuelled purchases into Pchem during the crisis has shown the validity of my words over his articles.


Actions speak louder than words.

I have sold almost half of the stock split shares of topglove this year, and I still have as much in value as last year before splits.

Well written articles, stock pick subscription services and book sales pale in comparison to investment results.

For once why doesn't those investment book attach his the meat of the annual reports in his book? His past 10 year results, the balance sheet, the returns?

http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/The-Superinvestors-of-Graham-and-Doddsville-by-Warren-Buffett.pdf

This is one of the few blog articles that Warren wrote: what did he concentrate on?

RESULTS.

Over the years I have bought a lot of classes and subscriptions from many frauds and fake sifus. Suffice to say, and have spent a lot of money on classes. I have built a series of red flags to define this frauds. You can use it to evaluate before you buy classes, it has been very effective for me.

Kcchongnz fulfills every criteria.

1. Self promotion. Either by talking bad about other investors ( in this case KYY and myself), writing articles by referencing super investor methodology ( without the same results), etc.
2. No history of results. Almost every subscription classes I went to ( receipt for 2, who are now my investing partners), they will keep talking about stock picks analysis, but have no record of long term multiple year portfolios.
3. Very defensive when questioned on results. They spout things like comparing sausages etc but do not consider the importance of such. If you think about it qualitatively, who cares about the GREAT STORIES written, but the financial reports and returns? But almost all frauds are unable to keep a portfolio: because they have none. They take it as a personal affront instead.
4. Never looking back and studying his poor investments or selling activities. Selling is just as important as buying. Since frauds are just about selling stock picks and successes, they never understand the importance of learning from bad choices. You never see them studying or writing articles about their investment mistakes or their losses or selling prices.
5. Income sources. If you notice that they sell a lot of other supplementary products like subscription classes, stock pick services, book selling, e-book etc, they very rarely manage funds or are good enough at stock picking to live entirely off of it.
6. DIWORSIFICATION. Generally, most top investors have a tight investing policy of diversification. The number of stocks invested should coincide with the capital at hand, due to liquidity. Peter lynch is a brilliant individual, but he had to buy many stocks due to the mutual fund capital flowing in. His results despite the ever growing mutual fund capital is nothing short of amazing. Most frauds promote a lot of stocks picks because it is the only way to drum up interest and sales. It becomes very boring to keep buying the same stocks year after year, which many frauds have no idea about. There are limited good companies to invest in out there, despite the thousands available.

On his inconsistencies, I started noticing a huge deviation.

He would write comments like this:

One way to evaluate BH is look at the price to book value and decide on how much premium you are willing to pay for the service of the Oracle of Omaha; 1.1, 1.2, 1.5, or 2.0?

I don't buy BH as I am an active investor myself, and often dwell in the mid to small cap space to find better value. BH may suit many but doesn't suit my risk appetite.

Everyone is different.

Then in the same breath write things like this:


I would say a valuation of a company selling eggs, surimi, palm oil, things in a convenient stores selling at a PE even at of 50 (not to say 60) is way too rich. As a matter of fact, most super investors in the world would say that. Affirmative. It would be a very bad deal for me to buy it.

S tell me, can its profit double the next year, and what about the next? And why do you think at PE 60 for the kinds of business in QL, that it is still a good buy? A good buy even at PE 100? and how you justify it with some numbers? Or your great stories is good enough?

Why say things like everyone is different, but bash me directly?

I also noticed him writing articles to directly counter everytime KYY writes and article to talk bad indirectly.

When KYY writes about dayang, he writes when to sell.
When KYY writes about margin, he writes about the dark side.

You notice this pattern stretching back multiple years. I started asking myself why?

Let's scuttlebutt.

My truthful experience of kcchongnz? I used to respect his articles, and you can see from my many replies agreeing with his well written articles. I have even liked his articles.

This was my comments:

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Feb 3, 2019 10:59 PM | Report Abuse X

I think all of you have got it wrong. The main aim of investing is long term compounded gains. I tell you truly, even if kc is bottom of 2017 stock pick challenge, as long as he never leads you to negative gains yearly then he will have been a success.

Someone who can teach you how to never lose money will win over those who teach you to win big and lose big. Don't believe me?

The secret is compounded gains. Reinvestment into safe growing stocks that leave you happy over a long term.

If you take all the top 10 winners of stock pick challenge and you average out their stock picks ( reinvesting all their previous year gains), what do you get?

A teacher who can guide you to grow your book value steadily is worth 10 koon yew yins who lead you to big wins in latitude one day, and a xingquan the next. Hengyuan one day and sailang Jaks the next day.

Investing in stocks is about watching paint dry. If your idea of investing is 1 year stock challenge sailang all?

Then I noticed a pattern of his: he would consistently attack and smear other investors and commenters when his inconsistencies were brought up.

This is what he said Connie55 commented on him bringing down JAKS.

Posted by Connie555 > Nov 7, 2019 5:03 PM | Report Abuse
so as this kc....the more he use jaks as scenario the more i feel like puking....jaks already come bck frm 0.40 last time keep talk bull shit cashflow this that....nw that it bck to 1.1 he come out advice ppl this that...once i see...ah diu jaks again....yau hai this kcchong....wahlan.....instant turn off my cpu...u knw why? i duwan sit my electric bill on this bull shit


Seriously I did not expect anyone to become vulgar and started to personally attack others. I wish the society here is more civilized than that. Most of us were educated to be as such. Anyway, can't expect everyone to be the same

But then this is his replies to others:

Aiyo, you don't even realize how stupid you are. The more you talk, the more you reveal how retarded you are. Take my advice. Keep quiet, then no one will know you are that ridiculously and incredibly stupid.
---
Posted by kcchongnz > May 10, 2019 6:23 PM | Report Abuse

I really don't know what is the fuss about my portfolio. I am still making 3%. If annualized, it could be 10%. If I could maintain it every year for 20-30 years, I will be one of the top performers investing in Bursa.

Anywhere, isn't my portfolio better than the 2 below who lost 37% and 59% respectively?

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/99613.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/99183.jsp

By the way, to me, investing is a marathon, not a sprint.

Sslee, you are a very disgusting troll.

Luckily I like your profile photo. But also promoted INSAS during bloggers day 2019... Much to their detriment.

Appreciate if you can spend more time analysing stocks instead of trolling around.

Thank you.

FYI sslee, please stop trying to promote INSAS in JAKS forum, for the last 3+ years the results have not been fruitful. This durian need to chop down.


Thank you.

Sslee,

1. This is known as a pump and dump article with conscience, meaning short term buying and profit taking. You already took profit, and tp given at 40 cents which was achieved in a far far shorter period. You should know the difference between short term investing and long term investing. Fyi you also know my buy price and sell price and position size.

2. Apparently GDEX boy never bought a single share or even own GDEX buy randomly picked a stock without any investment horizon, since he protects his behind, I could care less. It is another case like Calvin tan, works out he says chun chun, doesn't work out he quietly files it away.

3.sslee, please stop being a troll and share some good investment ideas soon, otherwise you too will start being another troll who talk bad about everything and everyone, but never helped to give a good stock pick.

Please grow up.

Thank you.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 13, 2020 3:44 PM | Report Abuse

Haha i3lurker,
Your Gdex is close in on Philip STAR and I think very good chance to overtake STAR soon.
Philip will very soon eat his humble pie and call you Gdex Sifu instead of Gdex boy.

Fyi I still have 923k shares in topglove, which is around the same amount I had pre split. Stockraider you want to make fun of me? Wait 100000 years la ok? Your stoneraider skill need to brush up a bit ok?

At least I pick winners, unlike some bought:

NETX at 1.5-2 cents
Bjcorp expecting privatisation
Insas expecting mgo
Sapura energy expecting rm3 in 3 years
Bumi armada
Insas-wa

Etc etc..... How are you still in stock market when everything you pick is a bunch of losers?

Not forgetting Star which sslee very smartly sold at b40 cents while you still holding...

Trading also not good. Long term investing also not good.

You comment what bullshit oh?


>>>>>>>

stockraider U r still selling your winners & buying into your bunch of losers ah ??

For the short term, I have no idea what the markets will do or how stocks will perform. In fact, I managed to be the idiot who sells topglove at rm8 to buy stocks just when the share price jumped by 20% almost the next few days.

In the mid term, STONECO cash levels and business strategy will keep them afloat.

In the long term, I believe STONECO business model is a very very intrinsically strong model, which will be far more effective and customer centric than many of the incumbent Banks, which is a nightmare to navigate in Brazil.

>>>>>>>

popo92 Philip sifu, have the plunged of BRL affect your view on StoneCo? Do you still hold your view on StoneCo manage to continue its growth for the next few years?
13/05/2020 10:16 PM

Very easy to say, depends on your horizon.

When you plant durian for 3+ years and don't see any fruit, you also will become stress.

Some will start to promote their stocks in JAKS forum telling everyone how good it is, which is all well and good, except for the long term results.

But in the end, investing is about a little bit of luck here and there, a good break for the company here and there, and a little rain and sunshine when you need it.

Anyone who can profess to see a TP in the next few months or weeks is just silly.



>>>>>>>>

Posted by Aseng > May 13, 2020 3:08 PM | Report Abuse

After planted Durian, to see the fruits, you got to wait. This is the most boriing part. But God is great love, when you are bored, there is always provide you topic to talk

I don't get it, are you complaining? Isn't this an opportunity to collect and build the position? They have received multiple orders and earnings guidance and refilled orderbook.

At this juncture being able to buy a company with growing revenue and earnings at cheap prices and you are worried about the low prices?

My question was a simple yes/no question, DID your investment in JAKS after 3 years in 2017 buying at low price of PE4, which you paid RM1 for it, DID you get back your investment back in 2020?

No?

Then why the long story? Your "reasoning" and your real world results dont make sense.


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 12, 2020 2:13 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
You are very cute. You ask me questions and I answer your questions and ask you are my answers right?

Your reply, “I am giving confusing answers and half truths”

I agree I do not know what truth is or half truths are because this crazy man called Mr. Market say 1 + 1 can be 3 or Zero.

Thank you

I don't know about speculation, but the sudden rise of share price is not backed by the growth in earnings. I am still keeping a majority of my shares in topglove, however moving some out and reinvesting more in the heavily undervalued stocks that I currently hold which I believe are still very undervalued.

I really hate to sell stocks, but since I am already full on margin, sometimes you can't have it all.

Sold topglove at rm8, and bought PCHEM at 5.43, gkent at 0.66, Serbadk wa at 0.25, YINSON 5.17.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/FongSilingColdeye/2020-05-10-story-h1506972670.jsp

Very solid explanation of how to really invest in stocks.

In simple terms, OF COURSE they are. Not only do they write well, their portfolio results year after year show that they are worth listening to.

Unlike some writers who drop names, but fill 2/3rd of the article with a shameless plug for their book sales.

I mean... Who cares if they sell 2000 books? I could write one as well and it would mean nothing at all if the readers don't actually benefit from it.

If you are a super investor who have made billions for their investors, they are definitely GOOD investors.

But good investors are not necessarily good writers.

Just as good writers are not necessarily good investors.

But nice story though.



>>>>>>>>>>>>>

kcchongnz Posted by Cnlim > May 12, 2020 7:30 AM | Report Abuse
Normally good writers are not good in investment in stock market cas investment has alots of others factors if so good no need to write n investment in the market better

Are the following super investors who have made billions for their investors and themselves good investors?

Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Marks, Seth Klarman, Mohnish Pabrai, etc.

You are the one giving out simplistic methods by saying if I pay PE4 for INSAS I can get back my investment in 4 years.

Now you are giving long-winded and confusing answer. So I wanted you back, is investing that simple? If you paid pe4 for INSAS the last few years WHAT DID YOU GET BACK? Did you get back your returns in 4 years?

The simple answer is of course not.

You are giving confusing answers and half truths. The fact is, if you gave out all your earnings do you really think you can maintain your future earnings output?

More importantly as a minority shareholder, there is no way for you to transfer those earnings directly to yourself.

So if that is the case, why are you using simplistic net net asset investment theology and simplistic concept if I pay low PE4 for the company I will get it back in 4 years?

This is an untrue statement and real life doesn't work this way. That is why no REAL INVESTOR is willing to pay 500 million for an asset based that is worth 1.7 billion.

Frankly, that is not how good investing works, and as a minority investor you need to invest AS a minority investor. You either find a good management where the majority investor treats you as a partner not a piggy bank, that makes decisions that benefit everyone not only themselves, that grows earnings and revenues over time, and takes calculated risks and doesn't keep going back to investors for money.

By simply buying based on net assets, you have to learn how to apply a discount based on your understand of how management is going to use those assets efficiently.

Who do you reward more?

Company A with assets of 1.6 billion, but fully utilize that 1.6 billion in assets to generate 4 billion in revenue and 400 million in earnings?

Or company B with assets of 1.7 billion, but utilize only a portion of it to generate 400 million in revenue and 100 million in earnings.

Please read Howard Marks memo on IRR which I posted to understand how to value companies better.

Thank you.

FYI please stop using childish concepts like buying pe4 company you get back your investment in 4 years. It's misleading and has no basis in reality of investing.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 12, 2020 9:20 AM | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Just to answer Philip questions:
Is it true if I buy INSAS pe4, if I buy INSAS today I will earn back the cash I paid for it in 4 years?
Or is it true that not all earnings are cash? Some is just revaluation of mark to market securities?

Insas last financial year EPS 12.35 cents if you buy INSAS at 49.5 cents PE4 it just mean if INSAS maintain the same EPS of 12.35 cents for next 4 year then in 4 year time the cumulative earning is about 49.5 cent. The earning part of it will be from share of profit from associate companies and profit/loss of mark to market securities which do not contribute to operation cash flow but dividend by associate companies and securities contribute to the Free Cash Flow.

From free cash flow and cash reserve if INSAS give out all his yearly earning EPS as dividend then the answer is yes you will earn back the cash of 49.5 cents as cumulative dividend in year 4.

Just need you to answer one simple question.

Is it true if I buy INSAS pe4, if I buy INSAS today I will earn back the cash I paid for it in 4 years?

Or is it true that not all earnings are cash? Some is just revaluation of mark to market securities?

If your logic is correct buy INSAS now in four years earn back the initial cash outlay, do many millionaires and billionaires in Malaysia why no one is doing it? Why doesn't EPF, ASB, tabung Haji mutual funds all are not interested in taking advantage of this deal?

3 years ago you paid rm1+ to buy INSAS at low PE... Did you get back rm1 in dividends yet?

What happen?


>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 11, 2020 9:30 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Pardon me to promote INSAS in JAKS forum.

As of 31/12/2019
INSAS Earning

A wonderful example of the dunning Krueger effect.

Trolls like i3lurker.

>>>>>>>>>

3lurker taking incomplete information and making a story out of it

I dun own GDex => actually means I sold it off already, my friends too.

I had never owned GDex => I had never ever bought GDex

aiseh, Some people need English lessons, too old semile already.

That's my conclusion on Philip's character => taking incomplete information and making a story out of it.

Philip is totally incapable of reading English properly, attributed to speed reading.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > May 11, 2020 9:13 AM | Report Abuse
First they promote GDEX, then they say they don't own GDEX. But they don't find any issues in asking their friends to buy something they themselves would not touch.
11/05/2020 9:19 AM

I have never held fixed deposit in my entire life, as I believe the returns from stocks in Bursa is far too great.

One thing you have to realize is that there is no double taxation of dividends from companies. Meaning when you receive dividends locally, there is no 30% tax on dividends unlike in USA stocks.

This makes it far more useful to hold stocks that fixed deposits.

Even when I loss everything during the 90s, I still believed this was true. I put my money in leveraging on ASB by dealing with my bumi staff and friends and converting it to real stock certificates that I held and taking out yearly dividends and splitting it with them.

In my opinion even with the risk of volatility and fraud, holding stocks in the long run will always be better than commodities.

It's not like holding a barrel of oil or bar of gold will multiply itself for you over time. But choosing a company with excellent management and cash that is able to navigate out of this crisis, we will see wonderful growth and returns in the future.

As for holding cash, holding a portion of it as insurance ( and paying the premium that is devaluation) is ok to take advantage of the market. However being all in cash over the long term is silly. I have lived for many decades, and I have seen huge almost every decade. Noodles used to cost 20 cents, and I remember paying 15 cents for a bottle of cola. Imagine holding cash hoard over 60 years, you would be wiped out.

In the end, all I can say is: buy what you understand.

First they promote GDEX, then they say they don't own GDEX. But they don't find any issues in asking their friends to buy something they themselves would not touch.

It's ok, we understand. You are incapable of proper investing but only full of useless comments like below.

In the end, you are only a troll.

The difference between you and me and dk66 is we take responsibility. What we comment on are only things that we owned or did analysis in with the intent to own. So if the stock goes down or up you know we all feel the pain and joy.

You are treasure chest full of useless information, hinting at things you barely know anything about.

3000 comments, no positions, no portfolio, no results.

Wow, why do you enjoy just trolling instead of giving out useful information?

Every comment is negative, narcissistic, noncontributory, nondescript, nullificatory, full of nincompoopery with an added dash of nonconformist nazi neoliberalism. Your niggardliness of noteworthy notions will notify to us of your nepotism of nonsense, and nevertheless all that remains is to nurse and nutrilize ourselves of your nonexistent notoriety, and as noncombatants to ignore your blatant neurasthenia and enjoy a beautiful day outside.

Note to self: Nix you.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by i3lurker > May 11, 2020 7:58 AM | Report Abuse

In case any of you dun understand what this means

Big data, IoT and Al had been done since the 1800s

American Red Indians sent smoke signals back to base camp to plan how to kill off those White Faces

Then Standard Oil staff sent morse code back to HQ along those railway lines.

Then Exxon staff used remote sensing data on oil pipes conditions to transmit back to field HQ

=> it's old technology, Chinese used pigeons to send Big Data which needed to be decrypted before its readable.

Trolls always want publicity.

What they lack is class.

That and actual results.

Why I ask for results? Because troll say his trades pay for half the division of IB that sit at his beck and call.

But he suddenly say he writes audit and reports for power plant running at the speed of light.

And his GDEX pick and any 1000 stock picks he makes will give better results than STAR picks.

And his 3000+ comments is all full of cynical venom and negative comments without a single positive one.

He must be the greatest short seller alive.

Sorry GDEX boy, I already know your mental age, investing capability, and the accuracy of your claims. Thank God you never wrote an article or blog, it would be a calamity.

Grow up kid.

As my grandson likes to keep saying these days, "drop the mic (microphone)".

Luckily you have deleted your tall tales of insas in QL forum, but you still don't admit that you were promoting INSAS in QL forum.

Too bad.

But now we know the truth, and honestly I do not derive any pleasure and in fact felt very bad to be team and cruel to a junior but sometimes you need to be cruel in order to be kind.

I wish you good luck in your 3 year investment in INSAS. May your IRR one day be a solid number, and may you finally earn enough so that you can divest your investment in INSAS as it obviously gives you no joy.

Unlike you, I see a very good future in all the stocks i hold, while you buy because of net asset value despite a huge drop in share price over your 3+ years in holding the stock.

I wish you good health, continues with your creative mind to write more tall tales and live happily.


>>>>>>>>>>

I derived no pleasure and in fact felt very bad to be mean and cruel to an elder but as I said before sometime you need to be cruel in order to be kind. I offer my unreservedly thousand apologies if I had hurt you and mistaken your good intention as you are indeed a good GIANT MALAYSIAN. I wish you good health, continues with you creative mind to write more tall tales and live happily.

Hi sslee, maybe you have forgotten because you deleted your self promotions?

>>>>>>>>>

Dear all,
I am not promoting INSAS in fact I am waiting to collect INSAS at RM 0.5 from i3lurker.
The blog is supposed to be a comment in QL forum in sharing with 10154899906070843 comments dated: Jan 2, 2019 11:09 PM as what I see in INSAS. But somehow the comment page keep rejected my comment and hence I was forced to posted it as blog.

Thank you
P/S: You can go to QL forum to read his comment dated: Jan 2, 2019 11:09 PM

>>>>>>>>>

Dear Mr. Phillip Fisher,
I do not know why I cannot paste in the comment in QL forum. Hence I post my responds in my blog.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/188711.jsp

Thank you

>>>>>>>>>

I am confident at current price INSAS will outperform QL in two year time in gain of capital.

Thank you.
P/S: In Tun Dr Mahathir blog I had encountered this @mubarakchan non stop talking nonsense in the blog comments and after some heated exchange and knowing no matter how much faults I pointed out to him in his comments he will be what he is hence finally I give up. Long story cut short on some of the exchange as bellow:

You are “paranoia” and “schizophrenia” mental derangement with delusions of grandeur, disconnection between intellect, emotions, action and etc as what our MO1 is suffered now still maintain he is innocent, his conscience is clear and the billion is from donation Arab tales.
I derived no pleasure and in fact felt very bad to be mean and cruel to an elder but as I said before sometime you need to be cruel in order to be kind. I offer my unreservedly thousand apologies if I had hurt you and mistaken your good intention as you are indeed a good GIANT MALAYSIAN. I wish you good health, continues with you creative mind to write more tall tales and live happily.

Exactly why I am very very careful about writing articles.

In any case, I usually only write articles in which I have a stake in, and I am honest upfront about my portfolio position and purchase price so everyone knows that if a bad recommendation is made, when I sell everyone will know it immediately.

Unlike some individuals who buy LCTITAN at 4.15 and quietly comment "I sold" when it dropped to rm2, while leaving the disclaimer choice to buy is yours. I'm not held responsible if you lose money.

But the fact is: you writing articles is not wrong at all, and totally appreciated.

But why pull yourself down to their level and fight trolls like i3lurker? Just let time prove him wrong.

Just the way I prove GDEX boy i3lurker WRONG with his egoistical comments by showing smart trading investments in STAR.

Investing is like watching paint dry. Let time prove your investments right.

Then you can laugh and make fun of trolls like i3lurker. You know and I know that he has zero credibility.

Why argue further with trolls?

>>>>>>>>>

DK66 Philip, what would you do if you made a wrong recommendation, beside saying sorry ?
10/05/2020 4:41 PM

I also remember you bought hengyuan and kyy promoting that hengyuan only need 3 years to recoup money to buy company. Did that happen?

FYI, using this simplistic concept your INSAS pe is 4. So only 4 years to recoup the money used to buy the company.

Is this true???

So, third year now, how many years for you to recoup your 1m investment?

>>>>>>
Another way to look at PE is the number of years one required to recoup the money used to buy the company, that is 54 years based on RM 8 per share (close 24/4/20).
10/05/2020 4:52 PM

Funny Sslee my investments in GKENT already showing good returns due to high dividend and and share share buybacks unlike INSAS, why need to say wrong recommendation? I am like dk66 waiting for earnings from 11.9 billion LRT3 project to complete by 2024 and 50 % progress by 2021 as per MANAGEMENT GUIDANCE.

I have no need to write charts and irr and earnings guidance as it is already given by management responses, and PROVEN with management confidence in heavy share buyback.

As we all know, investing is putting money today to get back money in the future.

Interestingly enough, sslee returns and dk66 returns in JAKS and INSAS follow the same trajectory for the past 3 years, and the same beautiful articles.

Did sslee keep recommending INSAS in QL forum since 2019 is honest and fruitful?

Only sslee knows.

However one thing is true, those who do not scuttlebutt and try out INSAS products will never realized the future of INSAS.

But sadly, when you buy a house you check everything you can, location, price, history of developer, rental yield, loans and discounts etc.

But when you buy a stock you just drop millions to buy something which you don't even understand.

" Investors".


>>>>>>>>

Sslee Dear DK66,
Philip, what would you do if you made a wrong recommendation, beside saying sorry?
10/05/2020 4:41 PM

Do not expect any apology from Philip if he made a wrong recommendation. You can look into his comments in Gkent forum. He keeps average down his cost and telling all the Q4 result:

George Kent’s 4QFY20 (Jan) core earnings of MYR6.8m (-34% QoQ, -73% YoY) bringing FY20 core earnings to MYR41.6m (-52.6% YoY). No dividends were declared; is a very good result.
10/05/2020 5:04 PM

I have done what not many in i3 investor dare to do.

I post my entire portfolio online, I write articles about my investing and back it up with my investments. You can see the position size in percentage of each stock that I do buy and the long term results of those investment positions. I mark down dates of purchases, dates of sales and margin levels of my portfolio.

In short, I put up a public portfolio to match my writings up against. Same like all the mutual fund managers, Howard marks, Peter lynch, Warren buffet, Charlie munger.

You can see my returns so if you have doubt about my sharings, you can look at my portfolio to see my transactions.

FYI unlike articles, portfolio cannot be edited or deleted.

So, who is against the concept of responsible sharing?

P.S. Every IB fund manager or IB mutual manager has a prospectus and a historical return portfolio.

>>>>>>>>

I suppose you are against the concept of sharing.

I repeat, you are not wrong or right because people say you are. You are wrong or right because your results say you are.

Why keep writing so many articles? Is it because a large part of your networth is in JAKS and it is to your best interest to keep writing articles using assumptions and estimations and FORECASTING without a PROFIT GUARANTEE from JAKS management?

Let's face facts: if you have invested in JAKS unprofitably for the last 3 years without dividends or share buybacks or increase in share price value, then your IRR must be bad. So if you need to write articles then go ahead.

But you do not need to be so argumentative. Just provide your points and move on.

Let people agree to disagree.

If you want to step on their necks, please provide portfolio results to show that you are right and they are wrong. Articles and charts alone are useless if they do not CORRECTLY FORECAST THE FUTURE.

This is an investing forum, not an engineering forum.

and since results is just around the corner, why don't you just wait for results to justify your investment thesis, rather than fighting with everyone around you?

FYI, I know exactly how you feel. You can read my comments on QL forum arguing with everyone on why I am still holding a pe50 stock. But today none of them are in QL forum anymore (except for sslee), probability, stockraider, icon8888, choivo, Ricky yeoh, kcchongnz.

The reason was simple. I was right and they were wrong. While their stocks cratered to 10 year lows in their low PE high dividend etc strategies, my pe50 stock kept going up in price and stayed steady during the crisis.

That is how you build a reputation. By being right.

Agree to disagree.


>>>>>>

Posted by DK66 > May 10, 2020 4:08 PM | Report Abuse

Philip, I m not a superman, I spent all my time in the last 3 years on Jaks. Please do not task me with other jobs. It is like saying "if you can't do this, then you must be wrong"