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2020-05-02 20:05 | Report Abuse
if you are in mechanical engineering like I used to be, you would be very familiar with the company Honeywell. As you can see from here,
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/hon?ltr=1
honeywell is a very strong company with global reach and influence, and their R&D is also not too bad. As GKENT has signed a long term license agreement with honeywell to sell automated meter reading systems, NRW(non revenue water) and smart meter (IOT) systems.
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/06/04/george-kent-banks-on-metering-business
http://www.georgekent.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/20190716-The-Sun-George-Kent-water-meter-biz-gets-Honeywell-boost.pdf
As such, let me just paraphrase what GKENT management has said about their water meter business.
They are currently doing 17% of earnings from water meter solutions. This amounts to historically 30+ million revenue/6 million earnings (20% of earnings), quarterly. basically what they are trying to do is increase this amount in the middle term with new systems to 60+ million revenue/ 15 million earnings (50% of earnings) quarterly.
How are they planning to achieve this?
In September 2019, the Selangor water authority contracted the group to supply, deliver and install 5,540 water meters fitted with the group’s smart metering solution for a six-month pilot test.
The pilot project’s delivery and installation are almost complete.
GKent noted that potential growth from smart metering is significant, given the group’s status as the first mover and market leader in the region.
I believe based on Honeywell history and GKENT history of execution, the increase to 26 territories, including 15 new territories in the Asia to supply the new volumetric meters in existing and new channel markets will make this very achievable. They will be producing cheaper and supplying to honeywell existing distributors and system integrators throughout the world at a far cheaper price than honeywell would be able to do producing it in USA and shipping it over.
So at these prices alone, if assuming GKENT doesn't win any new tenders, they will have 240 million+ in revenue after 2024, and 60 million in earnings, post LRT3.
Buying at 60+ cents a share, this is just a waiting game.
And since they have net 200 million in cash and 0.90 in asset values, I am very content to build my position in the long term.
But do you seriously think that GKENT with its cash position and job completion capability + experience in railway systems in LRT3, LRT, MRT2 and LRT2 vo, do you really think with the deluge of new railway projects being proposed (ECRL, penang rail, Singapore -Malaysia-Thailand rail), do you really think they will not be able to get even a single portion?
Plus, they also have a long experience in handing over water treatment plant systems (which I used to work with them on in Sarawak), hospital construction (sure to be a critical issue post Covid-19 recovery), and construction and engineering.
I think, just because there is no upcoming new projects doesn't mean they will not have any. It is more a case of having too much on their plate to digest (LRT3 + MRT2 + hospitals), and they want to complete a few before going full bore to get new exciting projects.
This is a wonderful opportunity for me to build my position in the long term, and of course when they announcce new project, it will be too late to buy cheap.
2020-05-02 12:11 | Report Abuse
so you cannot even answer why INSAS stock underperformance for 5 years? Do you even know INSAS business or the products they sell? Have you tried buying their products on a daily basis or visited their production center, or talked to their suppliers, contractors, staff? Do you even know why DS thong sell his entire 4.5 million stake in inari?
This is the same as sarifah just buying JAKS just because of a power plant, and he doesn't even own the power plant but a minority stake of the plant, as JAKS will own 30% of the powerplant, and sarifah owns 0.00000001% of jaks, so she can't even influence any decision andy ang makes on jaks earnings, much less "taruk" andy ang. He will just ask you, "berapa share you ada kat JAKS? 100K share? diam lah klu tak ada duit beli, buat gelak ja keyboard warrior but no investment capability.
This in a nutshell explains the conundrum of INSAS selling far far FAR below balance sheet of .. .RM3.6? or whatever figure you want to put today or next week.
People who think investing is easy, buy today sell tomorrow, those are not investors. Those are speculators.
Speculators who are stuck in an investment to become long term holders are not called investors. Those are called egoistic amateurs. if you hold a stock for more than 3 years, and you still don't see any improvement in earning, revenues and changes in the company? Then you are just another donald trump wannabe, investing large capital based on gut feel.
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Sslee Haha
Of cause this is not an answer but a challenge.
02/05/2020 8:18 AM
2020-05-02 12:01 | Report Abuse
Why would it? If you look at the numnbers, the GDP and the world production capability is not damaged. Currently now it is just a matter of no one knowing what to do, uncertainty in proper measures of tackling covid and what the long term picture is. My nearest analogy is of a schoolboy who has fallen sick and is resting at home until he recovers (which the rate of recover is 98%). To be brutal about it, in terms of economic progress, and pardon my insensitivity to the matter, the elderly (including myself) will always be a burden to the young, because since we are no longer producing, we have to rely on the young to produce for the both of us (thus EPF etc). In the old days, statistically I would not live past 65. These days, the rate is more to 75+.
In other words, by killing us old and sick off, the future generation will have less mouths to feed and less costs to bear, and more growth will be possible (since we consume more than we produce by nature).
This is different from a World War or major sickness which kills 98% of the population. In this scenario gross domestic product will be affected, and there will be a huge effect to society and production. In this end of days case, then definitely buy and hold will no longer work. Or it will, but now buying property, and holding food and farms will be far more useful than stock trading.
Buy and hold definitely will ALWAYS work. However, it depends on your ability to see what is worth buying and holding for the long term. If the world ends, buying and holding on to that merida racing bike might be a brilliant idea, but if the world doesn't end, holding on to cash might have been the stupid mistake you will beat yourself over the head with as you reminisce about how you could have bought when the everyone is selling. I choose to buy wonderful companies when everyone in the world is selling me their stock at cheap prices.
2020-05-02 11:43 | Report Abuse
MCO started in March 18, and GKENT started work back in April 19, so just a month of production lost. No worries, GKENT is in a business model which is resistant to COVID- 19, aka their demand of water meters still outstrips supply, and this is merely an opportunity to build up inventory to sell at higher prices. FYI, unlike speculator SSLEE who has never used any of INSAS services and products, I have visited GKENT water meter manufacturing plant in puchong. It is quite automated, so I have no worries about GKENT products and its ability to execute in the long term.
2020-05-02 11:39 | Report Abuse
Don't worry, GKENT will not break its history of profitability just because SSLEE says so.
>>>>>>>
George Kent, meanwhile, updated that it has received the approval from the government to resume its manufacturing activities of its water meters since April 19.
“This [has] enabled the group to reactivate its production line on April 20, 2020, albeit on a limited scale,” it said.
Subsequently, the opening up of key economic sectors from April 29 under strict labour movement conditions has allowed the group's operations to return to normalcy, it said, but highlighted that “it will take time for the production to gradually reach full capacity”.
2020-05-02 11:38 | Report Abuse
if you look at the results, it is far from poor. The engineering division results have begun climbed, due to a pickup in work submission and claims from LRT3 subcontractors and others.
previous quarter - 39.8 million / 8.8 million profit (22% gross profit)
this quarter - 52 million / 12.5 million profit ( 24% gross profit)
The revenue and claims are steadily increasing, especially considerang work stoppage in the previous year for LRT3 redesign and redeployment.
yoy quarter - 79.6 million / 38.8 million profit ( 48% gross profit)
yoy quarter - 65.1 million/ 24.8 million profit (33% gross profit)
you may choose to see the worse in things, or you may choose to understand that it takes time for a 11.9 billion project to take time to restart and go back on the rails. Yes, GKENT costs have started to increase as they need to start payments and costs to their subcontractors, but on the same vein, those job completions will be followed by claim submissions that will increase over time.
Yes, for now covid19 and slow progress for LRT3 will be a downer. However, there is a given extension of work progress, and profit increase claims to continue upward trend in the months and years to come.
2020-05-02 11:15 | Report Abuse
This is very true, which is why I am also actively monitoring. Based on my overall cost structure today of 70 cents, it is below the NTA value of GKENT of 92 cents, which is selling at a huge nett cash asset value, so I am incentivised to just wait and see, as the constant share buyback is increasing my shareholding in the company, and the dividend yield is not too bad. Since I can wait 4-5 years to see how GKENT will perform over time, I am OK sitting on my margin play here. Past history has shown that GKENT is a well performing company. Lets see how the future unfolds.
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Alex™ Stoneco, the Brazilian Fintech IPO that Berkshire participated. It's in my buying basket now.
I also joined GKent. The scuttlebutt due diligence by Fisher is good. However, if Fisher were still alive today, he would probably see past the LRT3 earning, and weighs GKent on its long term water meter businesses, hospitals, as well as infrastructure based order book. GKent needs to perform beyond what marginal companies couldn't with standard 10% profit off contract value and still keep a handsome bottom line for its shareholders.
2020-05-02 11:02 | Report Abuse
xterrorsinx, you do know that LCTITAN has to import all of its feedstock right?
While PCHEM production supply refinery is just next door which is Pangerang Integrated Complex, crude oil is delivered there, and it also produces naphta directly ( it says so in the website, got naphta crackers).
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/pengerang-integrated-petroleum-complex-pipc-pengerang/
How much is LCTITAN delivery cost? How much is PCHEM delivery cost?
>>>>>>>>>>
Posted by xterrorsinx > May 2, 2020 10:23 AM | Report Abuse
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/04/14/10495899/podcas... PCHEM's advantage is over as it uses Ethane as feedstock. IT's LCTITAN's Time to shine
2020-05-02 08:18 | Report Abuse
EPF can do whatever they want, as long as QL management believe that it is still valuable and shouldn't be sold at any price, their 70% ownership of the company will continue to be a fortress holding up the price well, unlike ds thong sell all INARI at the first sign of trouble.
2020-05-02 08:14 | Report Abuse
If you can collect it BELOW 50 cents next week, I will buy you bak kut teh. But short term traders and speculators rarely make good long term decisions. But since you can see the future, good luck to you.
>>>>>>>>>
Sslee Haha
Must ask Philip why this quarter end 31th Jan 2020 result soo poor?
Next quarter end 30th April 2020 sure red red.
Time to collect below 50 cents again.
01/05/2020 12:59 PM
2020-05-01 22:09 | Report Abuse
That is not an answer.
>>>>>>>>
Posted by Sslee > May 1, 2020 8:44 PM | Report Abuse
Haha Philip,
I start to invest in Insas 8n yeat 2017 and top up Insas year by year and will continues to do so for the next 5 year. May I ask when is your last time top up QL? Dare to top up more for the next 5 years?
2020-05-01 20:34 | Report Abuse
Still bashing stocks I see. What stocks do you have that is performing? Oh I forgot. You don't have any, gdex boy.
>>>>>
Posted by i3lurker > May 1, 2020 11:24 AM | Report Abuse
one of the least performing counter on thursday
sellers still hiding in the bushes waiting to do Halloween tricks
2020-05-01 20:20 | Report Abuse
Boring every time same answer, but one simple question until today not answered. Why is it for the last 5+ years with the same balance sheet is INSAS trading at such a huge discount to balance sheet? Why are banks avoiding, institutional investors who avoiding, Philip avoiding? Was it the right action not to invest in INSAS for the last 5 years despite huge difference in balance sheet? Why is this happening?
Can sslee stop repeating same balance sheet story and explain why for last 5 years INSAS share price is trading to such huge discount, similar to icap also trading at a discount?
Will the same story repeat 5 years of from now? Will INSAS still trade below its NAV 10 years from now?
Sslee. Learn to scuttlebutt. Don't just try on CEO teatime. Visit dome. Visit melium. Go visit numoni. Go use vigcash, tribecar. Go use their trading facility.
Then you will know that business is so much more than just pieces of paper.
FYI. I have used tribecar in Singapore.
Have you used any of INSAS services and products?
>>>>>>>
Posted by Sslee > May 1, 2020 11:21 AM | Report Abuse
Haha,
One look at the Balance Sheet already know cash rich Insas BOD had nothing similar with ALP except inari is cash cow for Insas and JPP is cash cow to Jaks.
So fake news again from Philip
2020-05-01 13:14 | Report Abuse
Ricky Yeo is in Australia lo. Very young man and handsome and still writing articles that sound good but have no results one la.
Of course very sarcastic, he thinks just because he emigrated to Australia he is better than the average Malaysian, not knowing that while he is earning peanuts in a foreign land and jumping from job to job, others are making millions in Malaysia, the land of the hard working asians.
He is also another one who want to start a stock competition ( 10 years woh) with me,
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/138504.jsp
>>>>>>>>>>
https://au.linkedin.com/in/jiayeo
2020-05-01 10:38 | Report Abuse
Is this even a relevant comment that relates to investing?
>>>>>>>>
DickyMe All good but will "ABANG" let lapdog brother to report freely?
They must remain subservient and toe the trail of the donkey.
30/04/2020 11:27 AM
2020-05-01 10:31 | Report Abuse
Let us revisit just one year ago.
>>>>>>>>
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip5/2019-01-28-story191626-My_First_Pump_and_Dump_Article_How_to_pump_with_a_CONCIENCE.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip5/2019-01-30-story-h1456984491-CUN_CUN_CALL_BY_PHILIPTANGRAIDING_RESEARCH_GROUP_UNLIMITED_POWER_UP_TRA.jsp
2020-05-01 10:11 | Report Abuse
But in any case I don't make the prices. I have also gone through extensive reading of YST farms annual reports and their production and selling prices to plot the growth rate to feihe.
The prices that YST is selling at is quite low, but it is on the higher side compared to the market sales prices of the dairy farmers in china.
So, pricing power is not there due to market competition. For Feihe, it is almost the opposite way around.
Since I can't force feihe to pay higher prices for milk or sell lower price for astrobaby, I will just follow them as a minority shareholder and participate in the long term growth of the company.
2020-05-01 10:08 | Report Abuse
With tesco selling nestle NAN at 113.99 per 800g (the price my son bought for my granddaughter), you can understand why I am so bullish on this. My daughter in law stopped breastfeeding almost as soon as she started going back to the law firm.
>>>>>>>>>
https://eshop.tesco.com.my/groceries/en-GB/products/7004958942
2020-05-01 10:02 | Report Abuse
If anything, the writing of pump and dump articles (with a conscience) is a very difficult and tiring process. So far my track record is 1 per year. I may or may not even find any penny stocks worth buying over short period that has enough growth factor to rise up in price.
In any case, for the pump and dump stocks, I may not even be the one buying them, it is merely an exercise in valuation.
I repeat, if warren buffet can make a mistake with heinz and dexter shoes and airplane stocks, I can and definitely WILL make a stock pick mistake.
Just know that if that happens, I will be in the same boat as yourself.
>>>>>>>
Posted by Sslee > May 1, 2020 9:23 AM | Report Abuse
Haha Alex,
I manage to sell some STAR for 50% profit still hold some. A big thanks you to Sifu Philip. I am eagerly looking forward to Philip next pump and dump article. This time must buy more.
2020-05-01 09:34 | Report Abuse
if you look under other dairy milk products RMB210 million which includes packaged and processed butter, fresh milk packed etc their GP margin is also around 36%, so there is no supply chain bullying.
The difference is in the high in milk formula powder series. Those have very high margins (similar to Apple iphone) due mostly to brand recognition, market perception of quality and marketing efforts, and high R&D to produce quality results. As it is very hard to quantify the eficacy of milk powder (so just take my word for it and buy the most expensive formula milk available in the market for your baby), long term branding is very very important.
Contrast that to our local products, dutch lady. The price sold is very high compared to other local brands (in sabah we have SID and ecoyap), if the price was the same or even slightly more expensive, when it comes to your baby, would you feed them ecoyap, SID or Nestle? Why? Did you look at the label and compare what actually is beneficial for your kids when you bought the milk powder formula? Or did you listen to you wife and just bought the more expensive brand, for the added reassurance and quality reputation?
That is why feihe has 70% gross margins. Because they sell every thing out at 70% margins, so why sell it cheap?
And personally, i think the milk formula industry is funny that way. A reduction in price does not equate to an increase in sales. In PRC most individuals are more afraid of fake products and labels than even malaysians due to the prevalence and lack of quality control in the past (not so today though). My experience of PRC individuals, if something is expensive, then the general belief is it must be good.
Even when they come to Malaysia, my PRC friends always look for the most expensive durian like musang king, instead of enjoying other not so famous ones, which is cheaper but not necessarily worse.
FYI I stand by my claim that red prawn and XO durians are BETTER than most varieties musang king. At half the price, I love it even more sometimes.
>>>>>>>
Yet Mengniu only achieves a 37% GP margin. Perhaps Feihe is able to procure fresh milk at much cheaper rate (sslee might be right about supply chain bullying)
2020-05-01 09:03 | Report Abuse
If you read through the transactions, you will notice almost half is on margin to buy stocks at all time lows.
2020-05-01 09:02 | Report Abuse
Just look to the top of the page.
2020-05-01 08:47 | Report Abuse
I don't cover, but I do own a stock or two. My wife owns berkshire hathaway, and I own stoneco.
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Alex™ do u cover usa stock?
29/04/2020 1:03 PM
2020-05-01 08:38 | Report Abuse
Personally, I have never liked the concept of reits, unless I am the one launching reits myself.
1. 90% of all earnings have to be paid out as dividends. For me this is insanity, as it does not provide any opportunity of growth without significant dilution, and it does not provide any cushion in times of crisis.
2. The valuation of reits is usually based on net-nets, with little possibility of earnings expansion of a normal stock, but with all the inherent risk of a stock. If that were the case, I would rather buy bonds or fixed deposit instead for the risk level. During debt calls, stockholders are always the last to be paid.
3. REITS are usually overpriced after IPO, and will remain the same or lose value over time. Almost every REIT that I have monitored that has paid out 10% per annum has dropped in share price value over the years, making the dividend payment inefficient.
4. Costs and depreciation increase over time, but when REITS are involved, somehow the math just doesn't work right most of the time for me.
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ferrarimaker STOR reit in US - Look interesting especially recent price got beaten to IPO level, likely to ride out of the covid storm as majority of the tenants are SME service providers that everybody needs after lock down. http://ir.storecapital.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/4553160/STORE_Ca...
http://ir.storecapital.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/4553160/STOR_CEO...
30/04/2020 11:33 AM
2020-05-01 08:00 | Report Abuse
what kind of shit company is this, the moment the share price goes up the directors start dumping shares. Crooks each and every single one of them. They know they company is overvalued, you know they know. And they still sell.
IF the company directors themselves do not have faith in the company enough to hold, why should you buy??
2020-05-01 07:56 | Report Abuse
in my opinion of JAKS, I am not an investor. This is because I cannot invest directly in the power plant. Instead, I have to put money into JAKS itself, which is run by a CEO that I do not trust or respect in Andy Ang who hides information from shareholders and does poison pill defence, a management that does a poor job in building a shopping mall in a place no one wants to go to (evolve), and has multiple LAD and delays in its property development (50 million incoming LAD to STAR), and a legacy business of steel pipe supply that cannot compete locally. The company also has a history of funneling company funds to many ventures like that has expenses but so far no adequate returns on capital. Many cash calls, zero dividends.
The power plant is definitely going to complete and COD will strike. Hopefully before December when the LAD will kick in.
I have faith in the chinese counterpart to complete the power plant on time.
I have zero faith in JAKS management to manage the earnings from the power plant to grow shareholder value.
I compare the power plant to inari, and JAKS to INSAS. Why is INSAS selling at such a huge discount to assets despite holding a huge portion of INARI shares?
2 words: Management Execution.
I wish connie all the best. You are a brilliant investor, especially coming from kuantan. But the fact is, once JAKS gets the earnings, how sure are you they will be able to either pay a consistent dividend, buyback shares, use the earnings to take on bigger profitable jobs instead of going further into debt?
Their history already shows execution risk.
2020-05-01 06:05 | Report Abuse
Ricky Yeo is in Australia lo. Very young man and handsome and still writing articles that sound good but have no results one la.
Of course very sarcastic, he thinks just because he emigrated to Australia he is better than the average Malaysian, not knowing that while he is earning peanuts in a foreign land and jumping from job to job, others are making millions in Malaysia, the land of the hard working asians.
He is also another one who want to start a stock competition ( 10 years woh) with me,
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/138504.jsp
>>>>>>>>>>
https://au.linkedin.com/in/jiayeo
2020-05-01 05:46 | Report Abuse
For those who are into pump and dump activities and short term profits, maybe speculating here will be more up your alley.
>>>>>>>>>>
https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/philip5/2020-04-11-story-h1505927167-My_Second_Pump_Dump_Article_How_to_pump_with_a_Conscience.jsp
2020-05-01 05:44 | Report Abuse
This qr is for the 3 months until January 20. With the mrcb JV results, we already know what the expected numbers were going to be. The next quarter results will see acceleration to complete the 2 hospitals due to covid and some effect from mco. But by end 2020 we will see claim for LRT3.
For those who live in kl, you can easily scuttlebutt. Visit the lrt3 station sites. See the completion progress. Then ask yourself once this project is complete will gkent-mrcb get paid? If the answer is yes, then all you need to exercise is patience. If the answer is no, then you need to ask yourself why GKENT are not getting paid.
If the only reason why you are posting such things is because you are a short term trader and you cannot hold a stock longer than 1 year and average down. Then you need to find different stocks to invest in.
If you are that kind of pump and dump investor, maybe this will he
But remember that these kind of investments can only be done using small amounts, and only for short term trading profits. As for no dividends, I would rather my company buy back shares when it is first cheap like I did, so that my share of profit ( and I believe LRT3 profit is guaranteed) later on.,
30-Apr-2020 30-Apr-2020 Buyback 30,000 0.685 0.690 View Detail.
27-Apr-2020 27-Apr-2020 Buyback 30,000 0.660 0.665 View Detail
24-Apr-2020 24-Apr-2020 Buyback 30,000 0.660 0.665 View Detail
23-Apr-2020 23-Apr-2020 Buyback 20,000 0.670 0.675 View Detai
22-Apr-2020 22-Apr-2020 Buyback 20,000 0.680 0.680 View Detail
21-Apr-2020 21-Apr-2020 Buyback 30,000 0.675 0.680 View Detail
16-Apr-2020 16-Apr-2020 Buyback 20,000 0.675 0.680 View Detail
14-Apr-2020 14-Apr-2020 Buyback 20,000 0.665 0.665 View Detail
13-Apr-2020 13-Apr-2020 Buyback 100,000 0.655 0.670 View Detail
08-Apr-2020 08-Apr-2020 Buyback 70,000 0.660 0.665 View Detail
07-Apr-2020 07-Apr-2020 Buyback 25,000 0.630 0.635 View Detail
03-Apr-2020 03-Apr-2020 Buyback 30,000 0.570 0.580 View Detail
01-Apr-2020 01-Apr-2020 Buyback 160,000 0.550 0.590 View Detail
31-Mar-2020 31-Mar-2020 Buyback 51,000 0.540 0.555 View Detail
30-Mar-2020 30-Mar-2020 Buyback 60,000 0.535 0.540 View Detail
27-Mar-2020 27-Mar-2020 Buyback 190,000 0.540 0.585 View Detail
26-Mar-2020 26-Mar-2020 Buyback 20,000 0.535 0.545 View Detail
25-Mar-2020 25-Mar-2020 Buyback 25,000 0.500 0.520 View Detail
24-Mar-2020 24-Mar-2020 Buyback 20,000 0.495 0.510 View Detail
23-Mar-2020 23-Mar-2020 Buyback 155,000 0.475 0.490 View Detail
20-Mar-2020 20-Mar-2020 Buyback 230,000 0.490 0.530 View Detail
19-Mar-2020 19-Mar-2020 Buyback 440,000 0.435 0.490 View Detail
18-Mar-2020 18-Mar-2020 Buyback 655,000 0.475 0.510 View Detail
17-Mar-2020 17-Mar-2020 Buyback 260,000 0.485
How can so many people see the same thing and think different things? It all depends on your investing horizon, your ability to average and to understand the long term prospects of the company. I for one already know that Selangor is already running the smart meter trials to reduce NRW( none revenue water) with GKENT pilot.
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp
This is my portfolio, and you can see I have been averaging down on GKENT same as management in buying back gkent shares at low prices. My cost average now is 0.701. GKENT may be the smallest of my holdings in bursa, but it is one that was bought with the same level of consideration as my other long term holdings in QL, topglove, yinson.
All I can advise you is to learn how to enjoy paint dry. When I buy GKENT, it is not with the expectation of results this quarter or tomorrow or goreng next week. I only know a few facts. LRT3 completion is in 2024, somewhere between them GKENT will receive progress claims for works done on LRT3, vo on lrt2, the rail system on mrt2 and the 2 hospitals. I do not have an issue holding until 2024, and averaging down on the megasales, as it brings my cost down more and I expect the with all the buyback the share price and profit increase will go up much higher in the future, as they will be flush with cash again and the ability to complete more bigger jobs, especially after having the reputation of being the maincon of LRT3.
So, do you think gkent will never get another major contract again in the future? I find that highly unlikely. When that happens, then you will know the difference between investing and speculating.
>>>>>>>>>>
mamatede slowly but surely, Gkent is slowly slipping to the drain...
30/04/2020 8:09 PM
2020-04-30 15:23 | Report Abuse
One thing that I can pretty much guarantee is that there will not be a reduction in the consumption of baby formula over this covid-19 period.
2020-04-30 14:48 | Report Abuse
Ok. But I will recommend you to open up your mind and look at businesses instead of locality. In every country ( USA and Malaysia included), there are always bad and good companies. However
Munger invested in BYD.
Warren buffet invested in Petrochina.
Alibaba is one of the world's biggest companies.
Jim Rogers had this to say about China.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-27/Investor-Jim-Rogers-I-would-rather-buy-from-China-than-the-U-S--Pb3cWwJ6xi/index.html
The idea about investing is to look at critical areas that are undervalued. Stock fraud carry many alerts and red marks. But to assume that all stocks in China is a fraud is to lock yourself out of a huge fast growing market that will recover out of covid-19 faster than any other major country.
2020-04-30 14:33 | Report Abuse
There are cheaper options in the markets, why do Chinese still choose to buy astrobaby in large growing numbers? The fact is PRC Chinese are becoming much wealthier, and for them children are the most important future asset in their old days. Willing buyer willing seller, and no one is complaining about there business model but you.
I'm very interested however, what is a fair price for material suppliers to you?
>>>>>>>>>>>
By the way do you think a business model that did not pay a fair price to their material suppliers and then raping their customers to reward themselves, their distributors and retailers is a win-win business model.
2020-04-30 11:38 | Report Abuse
Hi alex, if you mirror my stocks I am not sure if you can make money.
1. I will definitely buy first, then write articles. And most likely, sell first then remark on my stock portfolio page. So, if you plan to do short term trades it will definitely not benefit you.
2. My holding period of stocks is usually 5 years or more(some remain unsold), although there are exceptions to the rule, such as STAR and AUSNUTRIA, which I sold after making 30% and 20% earnings.
3. I am able to do dollar averaging (up and down) every quarter to average out purchases, and dip into margin to buy when there is a significant discount to value. Are you able to withstand and entire year or two of inaction, and go crazy buying stocks during crisis?
4. I am a retiree, so I do not need to pay or upkeep many things in life. My overhead costs are low, are yours the same?
If you are unable to follow the following criteria in investing, I recommend that you simply look at my investing philosophies instead and put your own twist on investing on top of the foundation of mistakes that I made instead. Rather than giving people a fish, learning how to fish yourself is infinitely more fun and profitable. Rather than complaining when stocks go down, and cursing when it happens because you dont understand the business you invested in.
Hope you learned something.
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Alex™ thank you Philip. Alex™ officially follow you now. Please let me know if i can mirror all your stocks. Alex aim to retire in 20 years tq.
Criteria: as long as perform better than sp500 avg (14% all time)
29/04/2020 12:54 PM
2020-04-30 11:30 | Report Abuse
And then STAR went up by 50% in price, while GDEX recommendation is still stuck.
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i3lurker To me, life is simple
company does not have any growth => NO GOOD
Star Media => No Growth
Star Media => No Good
15/04/2020 8:17 PM
2020-04-30 11:18 | Report Abuse
ok. but you are more speculator than me leh. how come your recommendations all dont work out?
insas warrant
insas
sapura
hengyuan
petron
all.. garbage.
2020-04-29 23:28 | Report Abuse
Xterrorsinx, if u look back at lctitan history, it was already privatised before and relisted. Why do you think it is highly possible? Privatisation will lock you out of share sales, rights issues and other ways of raising money during this period. More importantly, if they privatised no one will ever trust them again to relist a third time to claim money from shareholders. Trust is a two way bridge
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Option 3 - Privatise. I think it is very likely possible. Due to - low public spread (they need RM 840 million at current price to take it private for a company that has nett asset of RM 12 billion). Only 24% to buy up unlike Genting which is 55% publicly owned.
2020-04-29 23:22 | Report Abuse
Where is stockraider when you need him?
2020-04-29 23:17 | Report Abuse
In my humble opinion it is always far more important to buy what you understand than to diversify for diversification sake.
The key word here being understand. If you don't understand the business, diversification can easily lead to DIWORSIFICATION.
2020-04-29 23:07 | Report Abuse
In any case I find the report very frivolous. Why is a stock based just because they did not pay dividends for 5 years? Berkshire Hathaway hasn't paid a dividend ever.
Only cheap investors keep begging management to give out dividend without thinking about the big picture in terms of the business.
I believe if the company is able to turn 1 dollar of retained earnings into many more dollars of growth than I can by giving out a dividend, then I believe the company should not give out a dividend and instead grow the business and capture market share.
If in 5 years just by not giving out a dividend feihe is able to grow to 13% of the market, then I believe it is the right thing to do.
>>>>>>>>>>
https://www.gmtresearch.com/en/research/china-feihe-fake-or-fab/
Have you read the GMT short report?
29/04/2020 10:32 PM
2020-04-29 22:59 | Report Abuse
Sslee, you never give up do you? What makes you think QL growth rate is going to be low? Ql is still one of my major holdings.
FYI, please give up on trying to bring down QL. It will still outperform INSAS. It will still return shareholder value far above what INSAS can it has ever done. And the consistent growth of QL is something that I appreciate and look forward to far more than the stocks that you peddle.
QL is a far safer, more consistent, more stable company with guaranteed growth over many many years compared to your INSAS.
Please give up commenting on my page, if you have nothing worthwhile to comment.
Full stop.
As you still have much to learn about investing, I recommend you talk less and read more.
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Sslee Haha,
Now Philip learn how much growth rate 30% revenue and 28% NP compare to his QL low single digit growth rate.
29/04/2020 8:50 PM
2020-04-29 22:53 | Report Abuse
Yes I already posted it up at the bottom, regarding their complaints on fraud and fake money because they have not given back any dividends in the last 5 years. I thought it was refuted when management has guaranteed 30% of profit payout as dividends to shareholders. If and when the dividend payout is not given out, then we shall see.
As for market share and sales claims , I believe Nielsen 3rd party and very reliable market reports has already refuted this fact.
2020-04-29 20:09 | Report Abuse
That is not to say Ausnutria is not the company to invest in, as their margins and growth are equally spectacular and not to be scoffed. But I believe as one company imports almost exclusively all its baby formula from netherlands and australia and another produces it locally, one will definitely make far higher margins than the other.
Plus the locally produced one is selling the high end series at absurd prices (and huge growth rates) and the marketing tag of "better for chinese babies", that just killed it for me. How do you compete foreign brands with that?
2020-04-28 20:30 | Report Abuse
Sold 400K Ausnutria at 15.50 and bought 400K shares of Feihe at 15.30.
2020-04-28 15:51 | Report Abuse
When I look at a company, this is always the first things that catch my view,
Quarter. Revenue. PBT. NP
31-Dec-2019 1,107,349 97,650 74,975 melium group
30-Sep-2019 1,072,852 84,330 69,872 melium group
30-Jun-2019 993,213 62,161 49,340 melium group
This is how I would like transparency in viewing the performance of a company.
With INSAS, I cannot find the transparency of the proper breakdown of all it's business units without inari share sales and dividends muddying everything up.
Simplified, what I meant to convey is I cannot have a feel of INSAS profit/losses of it's many startups and business units.
I did not say INSAS BOD is crooks. I just can't see the how much money the other business units are sucking up or generating back towards parent, and I don't like that particular reporting method.
That is all.
Thank you
2020-04-28 15:42 | Report Abuse
As I never once said that INSAS BOD are crooks, please do not put words in my mouth. The information I meant to convey is that too much information is spent on other details and very little spent on explaining the revenues and earnings of the the business units so that we can track more detailed performance. The earnings and revenues of tribecar, numoni, roset, and all the other growth units. In Warren's buffets letter, he explains in detail what he bought, why he bought it, the revenues and earnings and growth projections.
Vigsys and vigcash were little more than a footnote of losses. Was roset sold for a profit or for a loss? Is done, melium group growing revenues, flatlining or reducing in revenue and earnings.
This is what I meant about setting up accounting so that it looks better on paper than it really is. Not that INSAS BOD are crooks, but relevant information ( at least to me) that would contribute in long term growth of INSAS is not translated and monitored quarterly.
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It's ALWAYS a bargain price. For the last 5 years INSAS has remained a bargain.
Why?
When your core business is helping people buy and sell stocks, it is easy to game the system by setting the accounting up so that it ALWAYS looks nice on paper.
2020-04-28 15:32 | Report Abuse
Sslee, I did not INSIST. I only stated a fact. And I only posted it one time. Unlike those who keep repeating INSAS assets over and over and over.
I did not like INSAS business model from the minute I saw it. As Teoct has tactfully said, let us agree to do disagree. As you u cannot convince me to like INSAS and invest in it, just as you cannot convince me to hate QL and divest it, let's just move on. You think INSAS is a wonderful company. I think it is an average one. As the only thing that can be said as minority shareholder is the long term stock performance and dividend yield, all we can do is let time show who is right or wrong.
For me, it is simple. I have take a 2 year Bak kut teh bet with stockraider and CharlesT to which investment carried the best 2 year returns. I hope that will settle the matter on INSAS.
As I understand it, INSAS main business model is capital allocation. All I am saying is I do not like how they structured their financial report and accounting methodology which unnecessarily complicates proper valuation of the company. If you have construed my statement as saying that I said INSAS BOD is a bunch of crooks, then I apologize to you.
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Hence I do not understand why Philip insist INSAS core business is helping people buy and sell stocks, so it is easy for INSAS to game the system by setting the accounting up so that it ALWAYS looks nice on paper and his made up INSAS BOD to be crooks without even knowing them.
Thank you
2020-04-28 14:57 | Report Abuse
Instead of using a one brush to paint everything, I invite you to look at the circumstances of selection and a simple fact: why would a Chinese company doing business in China, with assets and management in China decide to do IPO in Malaysia? The associated costs and inefficiency must give them some certain earnings for them to producer that kind of effort.
But in buying a company based in a foreign land, we can apply the same qualitative and quantitative analysis to decide if the business is something that you would like to invest in.
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Posted by Sslee > Apr 28, 2020 8:37 AM | Report Abuse
Good morning i3lurker,
Me, once bitten twice shy. I will never trust any Mainland Chinese again. Philip say I lose 2 million in Xingquan because I hold 3million+ shares that become toilet paper. I learnt my lesson and never again.
2020-04-28 14:51 | Report Abuse
Hi teoct, I concur. I finished reading the last few years of audited financial of feihe,mengniu, yili and junlebao, all the competitors are having a good room to grow.
The allegations I think is not long term damaging, and the short selling has in fact pressed the price to a reasonable valuation that thanks to you, I was able to take advantage of.
While I believe feihe may be the right call in the long term, as you have done a lot of research and decided to invest in ausnutria compared to feihe, I will defer to you on this end and nibble nibble a bit on ausnutria while I monitor further.
Let's see how in the next quarter results.
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Posted by teoct > Apr 28, 2020 1:44 PM | Report Abuse
Hi Choivo Capital - been a while since we last chat.
Management quickly appointed an independent review committee (IRC) (consisting of all independent directors) as well as an independent consultant (Deloitte Advisory (Hong Kong) Limited) reporting to the IRC (only) to carry out investigation on the allegations.
2020-04-28 05:56 | Report Abuse
Sold 500k shares of topglove at 7.32.
Bought 400k shares of ausnutria at 12.5 in hang seng, appreciation and thanks to Teoct for the introduction to a wonderful company.
I believe glove counters are being overly manipulated and have decided to take a little off the top to balance out while waiting for the quarterly results.
Philip ( buy what you understand)'s Portfolio: PHILIP FARMS TRACKED PORTFOLIO ON I3INVESTOR
2020-05-02 20:28 | Report Abuse
Hi invest4future, share price is rarely my major criteria when I buy stocks. In fact, the truth of the matter is, I hate selling stocks that I hold. When I do sell, it is usually because I have no choice because I find a stock that I like or I think has a much further chance of growing, so I usually sell a bit to nibble a new stock that I purchase. If it performs, I invest more. If your idea is to buy the same stocks I hold, my recommendation is for you not to follow me, as my risks levels and profits levels are far different from yours. I started buying PCHEM last year at RM8.15, but my investment into yinson was in 2013 what it was little more than RM1, QL below 80 cents, topglove also below 80 cents etc (after share splits), I can hold because of the dividends that I am receiving is far more than my buying costs.
As for PCHEM, my critera for selling is more complicated, here are my factors for selling below:
1. Please watch the netflix episode of dirty money (my favourite documentary introduced by my son, so interesting), the episode on petrochemicals formosa,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formosa_Plastics_Corp
Here a strong indicator for me to sell is when PCHEM starts to look at getting profit at all costs, hurting and killing people near its production plants. Now, so far PCHEM is exemplary in its safety and health process, and they have given out a policy of 50% payout, leaving enough money for sustainable growth and good management. As long as this continues, I will hold the stock.
2. Future growth of the market - As long as PCHEM is investing into new petrochemical markets I am more than content to follow its growth. As their track record of M&A and new construction (SAMUR, Da vinci) and securing specialty high value products in cosmetics, beauty and healthcare (note the new isononanol plant in PIC), I have no worries that it will continue to grow in the region. I may sell if it starts to have a new competitor (and no LCTITAN is far from a competitor) that starts forcing PCHEM to throw price to gain revenue. As long as the revenue numbers (post COVID) continue to go up, I am content to hold on for dear life. If the company starts to have management problems or shrinking market share, then I will sell.
3.Net profits - As long as PCHEM continues to be able to increase revenues while maintaining 25% net profit, then I will always hold this stock.
So my young friend, share price is usually the last reason for me to sell a stock. Look at it this way, when you see a car accident, do you check to see if the heart is still beating? No, you check arms and legs, any holes or wounds or blood loss. Those will usually signal danger to you faster than putting your ear and listening to the heart beat.
There are many ways to check. Selling a stock just because the price has gone up or done is a stupid way of investing.
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Invest4Future Hi Philip, I am new in shares invest. I would like to learn from you. Based on your studies, what is the best price for PCHEM you will consider to sell your shares let’s say the price shoot up to 11.20 (100%) from current price. Will you consider to sell it off? Or you already set the price if more than 10 then you will sell? From your previous posts i know you invest in PCHEM for long terms because you are confident this company has a bright future. Will you hold this stock if it achieve highest price ever in one day and the company report is showing it still hv more room to growth. Just curious what is your ultimate mission for long terms investment in this PCHEM. Thanks in advance!
02/05/2020 6:00 PM