Over the years I have bought a lot of classes and subscriptions from many frauds and fake sifus. Suffice to say, and have spent a lot of money on classes. I have built a series of red flags to define this frauds. You can use it to evaluate before you buy classes, it has been very effective for me.

Kcchongnz fulfills every criteria.

1. Self promotion. Either by talking bad about other investors ( in this case KYY and myself), writing articles by referencing super investor methodology ( without the same results), etc.
2. No history of results. Almost every subscription classes I went to ( receipt for 2, who are now my investing partners), they will keep talking about stock picks analysis, but have no record of long term multiple year portfolios.
3. Very defensive when questioned on results. They spout things like comparing sausages etc but do not consider the importance of such. If you think about it qualitatively, who cares about the GREAT STORIES written, but the financial reports and returns? But almost all frauds are unable to keep a portfolio: because they have none. They take it as a personal affront instead.
4. Never looking back and studying his poor investments or selling activities. Selling is just as important as buying. Since frauds are just about selling stock picks and successes, they never understand the importance of learning from bad choices. You never see them studying or writing articles about their investment mistakes or their losses or selling prices.
5. Income sources. If you notice that they sell a lot of other supplementary products like subscription classes, stock pick services, book selling, e-book etc, they very rarely manage funds or are good enough at stock picking to live entirely off of it.
6. DIWORSIFICATION. Generally, most top investors have a tight investing policy of diversification. The number of stocks invested should coincide with the capital at hand, due to liquidity. Peter lynch is a brilliant individual, but he had to buy many stocks due to the mutual fund capital flowing in. His results despite the ever growing mutual fund capital is nothing short of amazing. Most frauds promote a lot of stocks picks because it is the only way to drum up interest and sales. It becomes very boring to keep buying the same stocks year after year, which many frauds have no idea about. There are limited good companies to invest in out there, despite the thousands available.

On his inconsistencies, I started noticing a huge deviation.

He would write comments like this:

One way to evaluate BH is look at the price to book value and decide on how much premium you are willing to pay for the service of the Oracle of Omaha; 1.1, 1.2, 1.5, or 2.0?

I don't buy BH as I am an active investor myself, and often dwell in the mid to small cap space to find better value. BH may suit many but doesn't suit my risk appetite.

Everyone is different.

Then in the same breath write things like this:


I would say a valuation of a company selling eggs, surimi, palm oil, things in a convenient stores selling at a PE even at of 50 (not to say 60) is way too rich. As a matter of fact, most super investors in the world would say that. Affirmative. It would be a very bad deal for me to buy it.

S tell me, can its profit double the next year, and what about the next? And why do you think at PE 60 for the kinds of business in QL, that it is still a good buy? A good buy even at PE 100? and how you justify it with some numbers? Or your great stories is good enough?

Why say things like everyone is different, but bash me directly?

I also noticed him writing articles to directly counter everytime KYY writes and article to talk bad indirectly.

When KYY writes about dayang, he writes when to sell.
When KYY writes about margin, he writes about the dark side.

You notice this pattern stretching back multiple years. I started asking myself why?

Let's scuttlebutt.

My truthful experience of kcchongnz? I used to respect his articles, and you can see from my many replies agreeing with his well written articles. I have even liked his articles.

This was my comments:

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Feb 3, 2019 10:59 PM | Report Abuse X

I think all of you have got it wrong. The main aim of investing is long term compounded gains. I tell you truly, even if kc is bottom of 2017 stock pick challenge, as long as he never leads you to negative gains yearly then he will have been a success.

Someone who can teach you how to never lose money will win over those who teach you to win big and lose big. Don't believe me?

The secret is compounded gains. Reinvestment into safe growing stocks that leave you happy over a long term.

If you take all the top 10 winners of stock pick challenge and you average out their stock picks ( reinvesting all their previous year gains), what do you get?

A teacher who can guide you to grow your book value steadily is worth 10 koon yew yins who lead you to big wins in latitude one day, and a xingquan the next. Hengyuan one day and sailang Jaks the next day.

Investing in stocks is about watching paint dry. If your idea of investing is 1 year stock challenge sailang all?

Then I noticed a pattern of his: he would consistently attack and smear other investors and commenters when his inconsistencies were brought up.

This is what he said Connie55 commented on him bringing down JAKS.

Posted by Connie555 > Nov 7, 2019 5:03 PM | Report Abuse
so as this kc....the more he use jaks as scenario the more i feel like puking....jaks already come bck frm 0.40 last time keep talk bull shit cashflow this that....nw that it bck to 1.1 he come out advice ppl this that...once i see...ah diu jaks again....yau hai this kcchong....wahlan.....instant turn off my cpu...u knw why? i duwan sit my electric bill on this bull shit


Seriously I did not expect anyone to become vulgar and started to personally attack others. I wish the society here is more civilized than that. Most of us were educated to be as such. Anyway, can't expect everyone to be the same

But then this is his replies to others:

Aiyo, you don't even realize how stupid you are. The more you talk, the more you reveal how retarded you are. Take my advice. Keep quiet, then no one will know you are that ridiculously and incredibly stupid.
---
Posted by kcchongnz > May 10, 2019 6:23 PM | Report Abuse

I really don't know what is the fuss about my portfolio. I am still making 3%. If annualized, it could be 10%. If I could maintain it every year for 20-30 years, I will be one of the top performers investing in Bursa.

Anywhere, isn't my portfolio better than the 2 below who lost 37% and 59% respectively?

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/99613.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/99183.jsp

By the way, to me, investing is a marathon, not a sprint.

Sslee, you are a very disgusting troll.

Luckily I like your profile photo. But also promoted INSAS during bloggers day 2019... Much to their detriment.

Appreciate if you can spend more time analysing stocks instead of trolling around.

Thank you.

FYI sslee, please stop trying to promote INSAS in JAKS forum, for the last 3+ years the results have not been fruitful. This durian need to chop down.


Thank you.

Sslee,

1. This is known as a pump and dump article with conscience, meaning short term buying and profit taking. You already took profit, and tp given at 40 cents which was achieved in a far far shorter period. You should know the difference between short term investing and long term investing. Fyi you also know my buy price and sell price and position size.

2. Apparently GDEX boy never bought a single share or even own GDEX buy randomly picked a stock without any investment horizon, since he protects his behind, I could care less. It is another case like Calvin tan, works out he says chun chun, doesn't work out he quietly files it away.

3.sslee, please stop being a troll and share some good investment ideas soon, otherwise you too will start being another troll who talk bad about everything and everyone, but never helped to give a good stock pick.

Please grow up.

Thank you.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 13, 2020 3:44 PM | Report Abuse

Haha i3lurker,
Your Gdex is close in on Philip STAR and I think very good chance to overtake STAR soon.
Philip will very soon eat his humble pie and call you Gdex Sifu instead of Gdex boy.

Fyi I still have 923k shares in topglove, which is around the same amount I had pre split. Stockraider you want to make fun of me? Wait 100000 years la ok? Your stoneraider skill need to brush up a bit ok?

At least I pick winners, unlike some bought:

NETX at 1.5-2 cents
Bjcorp expecting privatisation
Insas expecting mgo
Sapura energy expecting rm3 in 3 years
Bumi armada
Insas-wa

Etc etc..... How are you still in stock market when everything you pick is a bunch of losers?

Not forgetting Star which sslee very smartly sold at b40 cents while you still holding...

Trading also not good. Long term investing also not good.

You comment what bullshit oh?


>>>>>>>

stockraider U r still selling your winners & buying into your bunch of losers ah ??

For the short term, I have no idea what the markets will do or how stocks will perform. In fact, I managed to be the idiot who sells topglove at rm8 to buy stocks just when the share price jumped by 20% almost the next few days.

In the mid term, STONECO cash levels and business strategy will keep them afloat.

In the long term, I believe STONECO business model is a very very intrinsically strong model, which will be far more effective and customer centric than many of the incumbent Banks, which is a nightmare to navigate in Brazil.

>>>>>>>

popo92 Philip sifu, have the plunged of BRL affect your view on StoneCo? Do you still hold your view on StoneCo manage to continue its growth for the next few years?
13/05/2020 10:16 PM

Very easy to say, depends on your horizon.

When you plant durian for 3+ years and don't see any fruit, you also will become stress.

Some will start to promote their stocks in JAKS forum telling everyone how good it is, which is all well and good, except for the long term results.

But in the end, investing is about a little bit of luck here and there, a good break for the company here and there, and a little rain and sunshine when you need it.

Anyone who can profess to see a TP in the next few months or weeks is just silly.



>>>>>>>>

Posted by Aseng > May 13, 2020 3:08 PM | Report Abuse

After planted Durian, to see the fruits, you got to wait. This is the most boriing part. But God is great love, when you are bored, there is always provide you topic to talk

I don't get it, are you complaining? Isn't this an opportunity to collect and build the position? They have received multiple orders and earnings guidance and refilled orderbook.

At this juncture being able to buy a company with growing revenue and earnings at cheap prices and you are worried about the low prices?

My question was a simple yes/no question, DID your investment in JAKS after 3 years in 2017 buying at low price of PE4, which you paid RM1 for it, DID you get back your investment back in 2020?

No?

Then why the long story? Your "reasoning" and your real world results dont make sense.


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 12, 2020 2:13 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
You are very cute. You ask me questions and I answer your questions and ask you are my answers right?

Your reply, “I am giving confusing answers and half truths”

I agree I do not know what truth is or half truths are because this crazy man called Mr. Market say 1 + 1 can be 3 or Zero.

Thank you

I don't know about speculation, but the sudden rise of share price is not backed by the growth in earnings. I am still keeping a majority of my shares in topglove, however moving some out and reinvesting more in the heavily undervalued stocks that I currently hold which I believe are still very undervalued.

I really hate to sell stocks, but since I am already full on margin, sometimes you can't have it all.

Sold topglove at rm8, and bought PCHEM at 5.43, gkent at 0.66, Serbadk wa at 0.25, YINSON 5.17.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/FongSilingColdeye/2020-05-10-story-h1506972670.jsp

Very solid explanation of how to really invest in stocks.

In simple terms, OF COURSE they are. Not only do they write well, their portfolio results year after year show that they are worth listening to.

Unlike some writers who drop names, but fill 2/3rd of the article with a shameless plug for their book sales.

I mean... Who cares if they sell 2000 books? I could write one as well and it would mean nothing at all if the readers don't actually benefit from it.

If you are a super investor who have made billions for their investors, they are definitely GOOD investors.

But good investors are not necessarily good writers.

Just as good writers are not necessarily good investors.

But nice story though.



>>>>>>>>>>>>>

kcchongnz Posted by Cnlim > May 12, 2020 7:30 AM | Report Abuse
Normally good writers are not good in investment in stock market cas investment has alots of others factors if so good no need to write n investment in the market better

Are the following super investors who have made billions for their investors and themselves good investors?

Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Marks, Seth Klarman, Mohnish Pabrai, etc.

You are the one giving out simplistic methods by saying if I pay PE4 for INSAS I can get back my investment in 4 years.

Now you are giving long-winded and confusing answer. So I wanted you back, is investing that simple? If you paid pe4 for INSAS the last few years WHAT DID YOU GET BACK? Did you get back your returns in 4 years?

The simple answer is of course not.

You are giving confusing answers and half truths. The fact is, if you gave out all your earnings do you really think you can maintain your future earnings output?

More importantly as a minority shareholder, there is no way for you to transfer those earnings directly to yourself.

So if that is the case, why are you using simplistic net net asset investment theology and simplistic concept if I pay low PE4 for the company I will get it back in 4 years?

This is an untrue statement and real life doesn't work this way. That is why no REAL INVESTOR is willing to pay 500 million for an asset based that is worth 1.7 billion.

Frankly, that is not how good investing works, and as a minority investor you need to invest AS a minority investor. You either find a good management where the majority investor treats you as a partner not a piggy bank, that makes decisions that benefit everyone not only themselves, that grows earnings and revenues over time, and takes calculated risks and doesn't keep going back to investors for money.

By simply buying based on net assets, you have to learn how to apply a discount based on your understand of how management is going to use those assets efficiently.

Who do you reward more?

Company A with assets of 1.6 billion, but fully utilize that 1.6 billion in assets to generate 4 billion in revenue and 400 million in earnings?

Or company B with assets of 1.7 billion, but utilize only a portion of it to generate 400 million in revenue and 100 million in earnings.

Please read Howard Marks memo on IRR which I posted to understand how to value companies better.

Thank you.

FYI please stop using childish concepts like buying pe4 company you get back your investment in 4 years. It's misleading and has no basis in reality of investing.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 12, 2020 9:20 AM | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Just to answer Philip questions:
Is it true if I buy INSAS pe4, if I buy INSAS today I will earn back the cash I paid for it in 4 years?
Or is it true that not all earnings are cash? Some is just revaluation of mark to market securities?

Insas last financial year EPS 12.35 cents if you buy INSAS at 49.5 cents PE4 it just mean if INSAS maintain the same EPS of 12.35 cents for next 4 year then in 4 year time the cumulative earning is about 49.5 cent. The earning part of it will be from share of profit from associate companies and profit/loss of mark to market securities which do not contribute to operation cash flow but dividend by associate companies and securities contribute to the Free Cash Flow.

From free cash flow and cash reserve if INSAS give out all his yearly earning EPS as dividend then the answer is yes you will earn back the cash of 49.5 cents as cumulative dividend in year 4.

Just need you to answer one simple question.

Is it true if I buy INSAS pe4, if I buy INSAS today I will earn back the cash I paid for it in 4 years?

Or is it true that not all earnings are cash? Some is just revaluation of mark to market securities?

If your logic is correct buy INSAS now in four years earn back the initial cash outlay, do many millionaires and billionaires in Malaysia why no one is doing it? Why doesn't EPF, ASB, tabung Haji mutual funds all are not interested in taking advantage of this deal?

3 years ago you paid rm1+ to buy INSAS at low PE... Did you get back rm1 in dividends yet?

What happen?


>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > May 11, 2020 9:30 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Pardon me to promote INSAS in JAKS forum.

As of 31/12/2019
INSAS Earning

A wonderful example of the dunning Krueger effect.

Trolls like i3lurker.

>>>>>>>>>

3lurker taking incomplete information and making a story out of it

I dun own GDex => actually means I sold it off already, my friends too.

I had never owned GDex => I had never ever bought GDex

aiseh, Some people need English lessons, too old semile already.

That's my conclusion on Philip's character => taking incomplete information and making a story out of it.

Philip is totally incapable of reading English properly, attributed to speed reading.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > May 11, 2020 9:13 AM | Report Abuse
First they promote GDEX, then they say they don't own GDEX. But they don't find any issues in asking their friends to buy something they themselves would not touch.
11/05/2020 9:19 AM

I have never held fixed deposit in my entire life, as I believe the returns from stocks in Bursa is far too great.

One thing you have to realize is that there is no double taxation of dividends from companies. Meaning when you receive dividends locally, there is no 30% tax on dividends unlike in USA stocks.

This makes it far more useful to hold stocks that fixed deposits.

Even when I loss everything during the 90s, I still believed this was true. I put my money in leveraging on ASB by dealing with my bumi staff and friends and converting it to real stock certificates that I held and taking out yearly dividends and splitting it with them.

In my opinion even with the risk of volatility and fraud, holding stocks in the long run will always be better than commodities.

It's not like holding a barrel of oil or bar of gold will multiply itself for you over time. But choosing a company with excellent management and cash that is able to navigate out of this crisis, we will see wonderful growth and returns in the future.

As for holding cash, holding a portion of it as insurance ( and paying the premium that is devaluation) is ok to take advantage of the market. However being all in cash over the long term is silly. I have lived for many decades, and I have seen huge almost every decade. Noodles used to cost 20 cents, and I remember paying 15 cents for a bottle of cola. Imagine holding cash hoard over 60 years, you would be wiped out.

In the end, all I can say is: buy what you understand.

First they promote GDEX, then they say they don't own GDEX. But they don't find any issues in asking their friends to buy something they themselves would not touch.

It's ok, we understand. You are incapable of proper investing but only full of useless comments like below.

In the end, you are only a troll.

The difference between you and me and dk66 is we take responsibility. What we comment on are only things that we owned or did analysis in with the intent to own. So if the stock goes down or up you know we all feel the pain and joy.

You are treasure chest full of useless information, hinting at things you barely know anything about.

3000 comments, no positions, no portfolio, no results.

Wow, why do you enjoy just trolling instead of giving out useful information?

Every comment is negative, narcissistic, noncontributory, nondescript, nullificatory, full of nincompoopery with an added dash of nonconformist nazi neoliberalism. Your niggardliness of noteworthy notions will notify to us of your nepotism of nonsense, and nevertheless all that remains is to nurse and nutrilize ourselves of your nonexistent notoriety, and as noncombatants to ignore your blatant neurasthenia and enjoy a beautiful day outside.

Note to self: Nix you.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by i3lurker > May 11, 2020 7:58 AM | Report Abuse

In case any of you dun understand what this means

Big data, IoT and Al had been done since the 1800s

American Red Indians sent smoke signals back to base camp to plan how to kill off those White Faces

Then Standard Oil staff sent morse code back to HQ along those railway lines.

Then Exxon staff used remote sensing data on oil pipes conditions to transmit back to field HQ

=> it's old technology, Chinese used pigeons to send Big Data which needed to be decrypted before its readable.

Trolls always want publicity.

What they lack is class.

That and actual results.

Why I ask for results? Because troll say his trades pay for half the division of IB that sit at his beck and call.

But he suddenly say he writes audit and reports for power plant running at the speed of light.

And his GDEX pick and any 1000 stock picks he makes will give better results than STAR picks.

And his 3000+ comments is all full of cynical venom and negative comments without a single positive one.

He must be the greatest short seller alive.

Sorry GDEX boy, I already know your mental age, investing capability, and the accuracy of your claims. Thank God you never wrote an article or blog, it would be a calamity.

Grow up kid.

As my grandson likes to keep saying these days, "drop the mic (microphone)".

Luckily you have deleted your tall tales of insas in QL forum, but you still don't admit that you were promoting INSAS in QL forum.

Too bad.

But now we know the truth, and honestly I do not derive any pleasure and in fact felt very bad to be team and cruel to a junior but sometimes you need to be cruel in order to be kind.

I wish you good luck in your 3 year investment in INSAS. May your IRR one day be a solid number, and may you finally earn enough so that you can divest your investment in INSAS as it obviously gives you no joy.

Unlike you, I see a very good future in all the stocks i hold, while you buy because of net asset value despite a huge drop in share price over your 3+ years in holding the stock.

I wish you good health, continues with your creative mind to write more tall tales and live happily.


>>>>>>>>>>

I derived no pleasure and in fact felt very bad to be mean and cruel to an elder but as I said before sometime you need to be cruel in order to be kind. I offer my unreservedly thousand apologies if I had hurt you and mistaken your good intention as you are indeed a good GIANT MALAYSIAN. I wish you good health, continues with you creative mind to write more tall tales and live happily.

Hi sslee, maybe you have forgotten because you deleted your self promotions?

>>>>>>>>>

Dear all,
I am not promoting INSAS in fact I am waiting to collect INSAS at RM 0.5 from i3lurker.
The blog is supposed to be a comment in QL forum in sharing with 10154899906070843 comments dated: Jan 2, 2019 11:09 PM as what I see in INSAS. But somehow the comment page keep rejected my comment and hence I was forced to posted it as blog.

Thank you
P/S: You can go to QL forum to read his comment dated: Jan 2, 2019 11:09 PM

>>>>>>>>>

Dear Mr. Phillip Fisher,
I do not know why I cannot paste in the comment in QL forum. Hence I post my responds in my blog.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/188711.jsp

Thank you

>>>>>>>>>

I am confident at current price INSAS will outperform QL in two year time in gain of capital.

Thank you.
P/S: In Tun Dr Mahathir blog I had encountered this @mubarakchan non stop talking nonsense in the blog comments and after some heated exchange and knowing no matter how much faults I pointed out to him in his comments he will be what he is hence finally I give up. Long story cut short on some of the exchange as bellow:

You are “paranoia” and “schizophrenia” mental derangement with delusions of grandeur, disconnection between intellect, emotions, action and etc as what our MO1 is suffered now still maintain he is innocent, his conscience is clear and the billion is from donation Arab tales.
I derived no pleasure and in fact felt very bad to be mean and cruel to an elder but as I said before sometime you need to be cruel in order to be kind. I offer my unreservedly thousand apologies if I had hurt you and mistaken your good intention as you are indeed a good GIANT MALAYSIAN. I wish you good health, continues with you creative mind to write more tall tales and live happily.

Exactly why I am very very careful about writing articles.

In any case, I usually only write articles in which I have a stake in, and I am honest upfront about my portfolio position and purchase price so everyone knows that if a bad recommendation is made, when I sell everyone will know it immediately.

Unlike some individuals who buy LCTITAN at 4.15 and quietly comment "I sold" when it dropped to rm2, while leaving the disclaimer choice to buy is yours. I'm not held responsible if you lose money.

But the fact is: you writing articles is not wrong at all, and totally appreciated.

But why pull yourself down to their level and fight trolls like i3lurker? Just let time prove him wrong.

Just the way I prove GDEX boy i3lurker WRONG with his egoistical comments by showing smart trading investments in STAR.

Investing is like watching paint dry. Let time prove your investments right.

Then you can laugh and make fun of trolls like i3lurker. You know and I know that he has zero credibility.

Why argue further with trolls?

>>>>>>>>>

DK66 Philip, what would you do if you made a wrong recommendation, beside saying sorry ?
10/05/2020 4:41 PM

I also remember you bought hengyuan and kyy promoting that hengyuan only need 3 years to recoup money to buy company. Did that happen?

FYI, using this simplistic concept your INSAS pe is 4. So only 4 years to recoup the money used to buy the company.

Is this true???

So, third year now, how many years for you to recoup your 1m investment?

>>>>>>
Another way to look at PE is the number of years one required to recoup the money used to buy the company, that is 54 years based on RM 8 per share (close 24/4/20).
10/05/2020 4:52 PM

Funny Sslee my investments in GKENT already showing good returns due to high dividend and and share share buybacks unlike INSAS, why need to say wrong recommendation? I am like dk66 waiting for earnings from 11.9 billion LRT3 project to complete by 2024 and 50 % progress by 2021 as per MANAGEMENT GUIDANCE.

I have no need to write charts and irr and earnings guidance as it is already given by management responses, and PROVEN with management confidence in heavy share buyback.

As we all know, investing is putting money today to get back money in the future.

Interestingly enough, sslee returns and dk66 returns in JAKS and INSAS follow the same trajectory for the past 3 years, and the same beautiful articles.

Did sslee keep recommending INSAS in QL forum since 2019 is honest and fruitful?

Only sslee knows.

However one thing is true, those who do not scuttlebutt and try out INSAS products will never realized the future of INSAS.

But sadly, when you buy a house you check everything you can, location, price, history of developer, rental yield, loans and discounts etc.

But when you buy a stock you just drop millions to buy something which you don't even understand.

" Investors".


>>>>>>>>

Sslee Dear DK66,
Philip, what would you do if you made a wrong recommendation, beside saying sorry?
10/05/2020 4:41 PM

Do not expect any apology from Philip if he made a wrong recommendation. You can look into his comments in Gkent forum. He keeps average down his cost and telling all the Q4 result:

George Kent’s 4QFY20 (Jan) core earnings of MYR6.8m (-34% QoQ, -73% YoY) bringing FY20 core earnings to MYR41.6m (-52.6% YoY). No dividends were declared; is a very good result.
10/05/2020 5:04 PM

I have done what not many in i3 investor dare to do.

I post my entire portfolio online, I write articles about my investing and back it up with my investments. You can see the position size in percentage of each stock that I do buy and the long term results of those investment positions. I mark down dates of purchases, dates of sales and margin levels of my portfolio.

In short, I put up a public portfolio to match my writings up against. Same like all the mutual fund managers, Howard marks, Peter lynch, Warren buffet, Charlie munger.

You can see my returns so if you have doubt about my sharings, you can look at my portfolio to see my transactions.

FYI unlike articles, portfolio cannot be edited or deleted.

So, who is against the concept of responsible sharing?

P.S. Every IB fund manager or IB mutual manager has a prospectus and a historical return portfolio.

>>>>>>>>

I suppose you are against the concept of sharing.

I repeat, you are not wrong or right because people say you are. You are wrong or right because your results say you are.

Why keep writing so many articles? Is it because a large part of your networth is in JAKS and it is to your best interest to keep writing articles using assumptions and estimations and FORECASTING without a PROFIT GUARANTEE from JAKS management?

Let's face facts: if you have invested in JAKS unprofitably for the last 3 years without dividends or share buybacks or increase in share price value, then your IRR must be bad. So if you need to write articles then go ahead.

But you do not need to be so argumentative. Just provide your points and move on.

Let people agree to disagree.

If you want to step on their necks, please provide portfolio results to show that you are right and they are wrong. Articles and charts alone are useless if they do not CORRECTLY FORECAST THE FUTURE.

This is an investing forum, not an engineering forum.

and since results is just around the corner, why don't you just wait for results to justify your investment thesis, rather than fighting with everyone around you?

FYI, I know exactly how you feel. You can read my comments on QL forum arguing with everyone on why I am still holding a pe50 stock. But today none of them are in QL forum anymore (except for sslee), probability, stockraider, icon8888, choivo, Ricky yeoh, kcchongnz.

The reason was simple. I was right and they were wrong. While their stocks cratered to 10 year lows in their low PE high dividend etc strategies, my pe50 stock kept going up in price and stayed steady during the crisis.

That is how you build a reputation. By being right.

Agree to disagree.


>>>>>>

Posted by DK66 > May 10, 2020 4:08 PM | Report Abuse

Philip, I m not a superman, I spent all my time in the last 3 years on Jaks. Please do not task me with other jobs. It is like saying "if you can't do this, then you must be wrong"

Only those without results look on it as arrogant to check credentials.

In the internet world where everyone hides behind a mask, isn't the right thing to do is to compare what you say with what your investment returns.

This is why everyone buys subscription from OTB, because of his past results.

In the same vein, you have admitted what everyone knows, that your calculations and articles are based on comparisons and estimates and trial/error because your returns just cannot be CALCULATED, but iterated.

This is already a red flag for me, especially when you do not have real cash flow data to work with.

FYI I am not challenging anybody with results. If you do not wish to show your portfolio results, then there is no reason to push, because you yourself bought triplec based on writings by jay back then.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-04-03-story200864-Who_is_DK66.jsp

I too used to follow many sifu who wrote beautiful articles. Where is triplec now?

There are many Warren buffetts in the world. But only one we listen to, why? Because his "sharings" come with a legendary portfolio.

Seriously, I have no issues with you and your sharings.

But the fact is, if your sharings don't work out, all you can do is say I'm sorry or stop posting.

Which does no good to investors who bought and loss based on your sharings.

>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by DK66 > May 10, 2020 3:55 PM | Report Abuse

Philip, how do I appear arrogance to you ? By putting up a challenge ? Are you speaking for yourself too, challenging everyone with results ?

I am not interested in speculation.

You know as well as I do without first year cash flow generation, historical returns, quality of maintenance and operation, a clear form of payments guarantee and collection of receivables you can make NPV any value to fit.

So, using relative comparison, I can judge the production capacity of LSS project of 5MW run in putrajaya versus a 5MW LSS project run in kudat, sabah?. Both are same contract, same year, same rates, but different company managements. I invite you to give your best evaluation, then I will post up the real returns of both companies. Then you can compare real life investing versus accounting book land.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by DK66 > May 10, 2020 3:44 PM | Report Abuse

Relative comparison is a far better evaluation method than IRR for JHDP given the similarity between Vinh Tan 1 and JHDP.

But will his results be exactly like United plantations? Obviously not. So there is no point to argue. Let's just wait and see and invest if you want and stay away if you don't.

No point to argue when no results are out.

Unlike a pump and dump article to compare star media versus GDEX, eh i3lurker? Sslee sold for 50% returns in a few weeks. Your GDEX leh?

>>>>>

Imagine if sslee is starting a new Palm oil plantation. Since he doesn't know what the results in the future will be, he has to make estimates. He can either use results and cashflows generated per hectare from United plantations, or use results from kretam.

But the arrogance and ego just to assume that writing beautiful articles equals results is silly.

This is like Jon choivo charging rm5k for his articles, i3lurker saying any 1000 stocks he picks is better than Star, Ricky Yeo writing his articles and not forgetting icon8888 with his infamous buy articles.

If I may be so bold, your reputation is not based on how popular or how many views your article has. But how wrong or right your stock pick is over time.

I remember that DK66 has gravitated to minimum tp of rm2.50 in the very near future ( after powerplant full run and capacity energy generation), and was confident of rm4, rm8, RM10 share price based on huge incoming earnings.

As DK66 still hasn't been proven right/ or wrong yet, I hope you hold on to your attitude in the future ( Jon choivos articles on rcecap was equally beautiful, and filled with charts and calculations as well).

More importantly though,

1. What is your holding cost.( To understand your investment criteria. Fyi qqq3 bought at 45 cents before. Where were you then?)
2. How many shares do you hold of Jaks in your portfolio( your conviction. You said something about margin before, did you buy more at these prices? Are you holding? Are you waiting for a push up in prices to buy? Are you fully leveraged?)
3. What other stocks are you holding and the performance (what is your reputation)
4. What have your performance been in the last 1-5 years? ( How right have you been on your other picks)

Please understand, I am not here to belittle you. I am not fishing for numbers, but am trying to understand your portfolio position. It can be in terms of percentages.

But if JAKS is your single and only stock, and if you have only been investing for the last 4 years, and your buys into puncak niaga, Petra energy and mieco shows a lot of research done, but also without much results, then I must apologize and ask,

What reputation?

>>>>>>>>

My reputation in Jaks forum is not built in one day. It takes more than just words of mouth to discredit me. You want to void this article, you need to do a lot better. The article is simple and easily understood, it doesn't take a scientist to understand the logic.

To a certain extent, I believe both i3lurker and dk66 aare both wrong and right in their analysis.

Let me put it in terms of rationality. First you need to understand what is IRR.

https://www.calculatestuff.com/financial/irr-calculator

The fact of the matter is, if you were to create a spreadsheet to " calculate" internal rate of return you would not get it. There is no final answer simply because there is no single correct answer.

In fact, since IRR is iterative, it cannot be calculated exactly ( unlike PE, ROIC, etc) but must be derivated by adding a discount rate that so that NPV is equal to zero.

By the way, if expected future cashflows are always positive, then there is no IRR – because you can’t make the NPV nil – unless the IRR is infinite. Put it another way: any project with only positive future free cashflows has an infinite IRR. Great. But confusing.

Maybe Howard marks can explain further.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2006-07-12-you-cant-eat-irr.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjH39zh_qfpAhXYb30KHW-zDSEQFjAAegQICBAB&usg=AOvVaw28sZycjz_tM5C5LtqSySva

Anyway, this is a dangerous and stupid tool to use to estimate future profitable, especially if there is no PROFIT GUARANTEE from JAKS management.

So think about it rationally. Basically what DK66 is doing is assuming figures from multiple places: IRR given by one party, cashflow generated by another party, and making the estimates work to fit his theory. I3lurker is also doing the same thing.

Therefore without profit guarantee from JAKS, or 1st year cashflow results, both of them are really just speculating on numbers to fit whatever story they want. It's just playing with numbers.

A very simple example.

Imagine if sslee is starting a new Palm oil plantation. Since he doesn't know what the results in the future will be, he has to make estimates. He can either use results and cashflows generated per hectare from United plantations, or use results from kretam.

>>>>>>>>>>>

Yes.
They have no ball to take up the challenge because they are just too lazy to do their homework to work out the figures.
Nothing had been done except sweeping statement.
They are tin kosong as Philip said.

What is your context?

Ok noted.

Appreciate if you can email me your references, CV and portfolio returns and accreditation. To be honest, I have been approached recently by a few Maybank fund managers recently who requested permission to look at my Maybank portfolio returns after reading the blogs I put up to verify. I would love to introduce you to them, I do not need any 6 months salary, I am satisfied with what I have.

Please email to me your portfolio returns and docs to rylakk2016@gmail.com.

Cheers.

Hi purebull,

As you have posted this about yourself with 20+ years of stock investment and fund management. You seem to be very successful with your trading strategies. You state that you are a fund manager. I would be very interested in looking at your fund and seeing if we able to put some money for you to invest. May I know which fund you are currently advising and the audited returns? Are you based locally or overseas? So far are you managing a PE or mutual?

I would love to see your returns and discuss future proposals. Are you accredited?

>>>>>>>>>>>

About Me
PureBULL
Achievement oriented investment professional with demonstrated analytical capacity to identify opportunities and solutions to turbulence market conditions. Twenty plus years of broad, in-depth experience with deep understanding of fundamental and technical skills in stock investment. •Formulated high growth stock selection system & portfolio based on fundamental and technical analysis. •Established & implemented right market timing for entry, holding and exit points of execution. •Successfully created a technical methodology to identify the strongest stocks and sectors for core holding. •Conducting & presenting investment talks, seminars & workshops to the investing public. Advising PLC on creating values with best practices in equity capital market(ecm) strategies.

Sorry I no longer invest based on downtrend and uptrend. I invest based on company prospects, it's financial viability and competitiveness over the longer period.

In fact, I no longer believe in concepts like trends in long term investing, or even short term investing.

If investing or trading based on trends are reliable indicators, the smart money would have sold during the onset of crisis, and bought when the market was at its lowest.

But the fact was: all I did was buy and hold topglove over a long period of time to enjoy great returns.

In fact, I can never understand the concept of trends in real life.

In real life, when you have a discount on burgers and birthday month coupons, you take advantage. And when scalpers are selling overpriced tickets to a Knicks game, why buy?

But in stock market, it is the total reverse. When prices go up you BUY? When prices crash you SELL?

I prefer to buy stocks when market has crashed and I can name my price.

Following the crowd to buy speculation? I much prefer to avoid that.



>>>>>>>

Posted by PureBULL ... > May 9, 2020 4:53 PM | Report Abuse

Looking at long # phillip super RICH super clever portfolio,

ALL downtrend, only TOPGLOV is uptrending.


OnG stocks r the worst, OIL just crashed few weeks ago. will be purebear for yrs.

Luckin was never profitable.

/>>>>>>>>>

China companies with high profitability

Here is how I look at luckin. Firstly, they were a very new chain in a world dominated by Starbucks and friends. There was no r&d or differentiating capacity about them. So a few red flags that make me instinctively worried would be:

1. Impossible growth speeds with a clear differentiator.
2. It was founded in 2017.
3. The coffee wasnt even that good. I tried it in Guangzhou during my last trade Fair trip before to see what the fuss was about.
4. They were giving out free coffee everywhere. Why give free if you can sell it?
5. It was revenue growth all the way without even looking at profitability.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90487535/embattled-luckin-coffee-sees-wild-surge-as-customers-scramble-to-cash-in-on-free-drink-vouchers

When it was founded in 2017, it was already losing a lot of money. In 2018 revenue was up but they were still burning 400 million in cash. In 2019, the jig was up.

On the other hand, feihe was founded in 1964. The sales and production can be easily corroborated by the income tax payments, production figures from it's suppliers, and industry journals of market reach.

In terms of profits, as you say it is a red flag for me also. But as they have guided towards paying 30% of their profits as dividends I am content to wait and see.

But more importantly the competition level and requirements are in a entirely different level compared to coffee.

Anyone can make coffee, even my son.

How many people can make baby formula?


>>>>>>>>

Founded in 2017, Luckin has opened stores at a breakneck pace. Even on its now discredited numbers, Luckin was heavily lossmaking. It was primarily valued on revenue growth and its ability to show a path to profitability.

It seems my wife is a far better investor than I am, but the reasons for her choosing to buy stocks confound me, though she definitely has her own ways of investing.

She bought PPHB at 45 cents post split, and recently she also bought Oriental at 4.82.

Her reasoning was very simple: she buy them because they are penangite companies run by first generation Penang Chinese. Cannot go wrong one!

You can guess by now where my wife is from.

Sslee, smart meter has many types. Please read up of non revenue water ( nrw) before commenting. Household systems are still using volumetric which is monopolised by GKENT. The upstream monitoring with smart meter purpose is to save money for utility which is a direct return of cost employed for them.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-revenue_water

Here I simplify for you.

FYI you do not seem to understand GKENT business model. I think if you have not noticed yet, unlike those China companies which is paid per month, subcon is paid by milestone which is progress completion.

If progress done, submit for claim.

Maybe you should go back to trying out INSAS products and services first before deciding if you want to sell INSAS to buy GKENT.

My advice, please don't invest in GKENT. Most likely, the moment you buy the share price will drop. And the moment you sell the shares price will jump 20%.

But maybe if you can write some nice article about INSAS future prospects and earnings clarity icon8888 300 million earnings to JAKS every year, I can consider.
>>>>>>>>

So can a household afford a USD 200 water meter? Who will maintain it and pay for it?
06/05/2020 12:00 PM

I only bought foreign stocks twice in the past 1 years. So I only paid 20 USD in commissions for 1 years.

Compare that to if I was with interactive brokers. Whether or not I bought stocks, if I did the same thing I would need to pay 120 USD in commissions or capacity payments even if I did not buy stocks at all.

For me as someone who only has 2 stocks in their portfolio ( both which do not pay dividends).

But one thing too be definitely sure of. The capital protection limit is the same 200k usd, so it might be a good idea to spread your accounts around to protect yourself.

In the end just get whatever makes you feel comfortable. But one thing I do not recommend, never overtrade. One of the big problems with new investors is that they buy and sell too many stocks, and they lose out of the hidden costs of trading.

IB system is designed to make you trade more.
Thinkorswim is more suitable for my investing style as I don't have to keep buying and selling every month. Last year when I bought stoneco I bought 200k shares in one afternoon. After that 1+ year of inactivity.

Fyi I use tdameritrade USA. Cheaper rates, not as low as IB, but acceptable for me.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by popo92 > May 7, 2020 5:24 PM | Report Abuse

Tdameritrade sg charges more than $10 commission per trade. I don’t see why it is a preference choice. Philip securities is a better choice than tdameritade as they offer multi markets with similar charges. IB has the most competitive margin rates I have encountered and their service center are prompted. Commission per trade are very competitive as well. Webull is one good choice too, in aspects they are quite close to IB. They offer free real data quote. Maybe Jon sifu can have a look with webull too

noted, keep safe and keep investing!

what does it even mean?

I invest using td ameritrade, as I like being in control of when and how I buy. I don't like being forced to buy/sell every month and being charged $10 a pmonth as a fee.

Yes it is a small amount, around RM45 after conversion. but imagine being forced to spend RM600 a year to use this service? I'm a cheap guy, as there is no way there is a good deal to buy and sell every month, I buy when it is needed, not because I have to.

TD ameritrade suits me better, they also have an office in singapore, and I can choose not to buy any stocks for 2 years and not have to pay any "penalty".


>>>>>>>>>>>

Accounts with balances of $100,000 or less must meet a minimum of $10 a month in trade commissions, or Interactive Brokers will charge the difference as a monthly fee. Accounts with an equity balance of $2,000 or less must meet minimum trade commissions of $20.

I got buy ah, you got buy meh?


>>>>>>>>

Posted by cheoky > May 6, 2020 12:37 AM | Report Abuse

MCO shutdown makes all uncle here talking as if his are the real true. Hello, throw money to support bursa stocks la.

No talk, act with your money. Energy needs to be released rather than study.

Ok you are right, he is not so smart. But his ability to turn 500 per share to 250,000 per share has nothing to do with being smart.

To be good at stock investing you don't have to be smart le. No need to know so many complicated math and figures and grand SMA/candlesticks etc.

You just need to be very very rational. If something makes sense, you buy it. If it doesn't make sense you don't buy it. Very simple, buy can you stick with the plan?. Sometimes for 2 years he doesn't buy any stock back in 65'. Sometimes in one month he buys 15 stocks. Can you stay out of the market that
Long? Or buy when everyone was selling?

Your concept of Berkshire using insurance float as piggy bank also doesn't make sense. You think it is like EPF? Only pay back when they reach 55? Got so easy? For one thing, Berkshire has underwriting profit every year compared to many of the big insurance companies. That means their premiums is enough to cover all losses payouts every year. They don't do like other insurance companies that pull underwriting losses just so they can have money to "invest" during good years. But the fact is Warren didn't take advantage of float like you think they do.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2020/02/24/559190.htm

Yes, they have 129 billion in float in 2019. But their average cost of float was 3.65%. you think it is free money? During the unprofitable years (1967-1999, got 14 years which lose money) their cost of float is 7.9%. of course the profitable years balanced everything out.

So if you think it is free money, you have another thing to think about. The thing about Berkshire is they used their 1.6 to 1 leveraging to grow at a far faster rate than if they didn't use leverage. I did the same thing more than 10 years ago, after finally understanding how to do rational investing and pay for wonderful companies.

So today, you have access to margin at cheaper rate than Warren buffet cost on float. What are you going to do with it?

Gamble on London biscuit again? Buy stocks without earnings and revenues?

Instead of proactive, creative, etc etc, first and most important is to be rational.

When everyone is selling me stocks are cheap prices ( 23 march 2020 before short selling blocked), I was able to use my MARGIN to buy GKENT at 45, Pchem at 4.09, Serbadk warrant at 18, Serbadk share at 1.19. star at 26

All below asset level, some at absurd below cash level.

If you don't have margin, how can you take advantage of Mr market irrationality? When gkent CASH ( never mind other plant, factory and assets) alone is 0.42 per share, paying 0.45 per share doesn't take intelligence. When star CASH per share is 50 cents ( never mind license, factory and condominium), paying 26 cents is just... Rational.

So you see, you don't have to be smart. You just need to understand how business works, not trend lines and candlesticks and charts.

So are you RATIONAL? Or does fear have you by the balls during Bear markets and you have sudden irrationality about your stockpicking skill during bull markets.

>>>>>>>>

But, in fact, he where got so smart?

Find out and let me know what you find thanks.

Why don't you find out why you are not using margin? And find out if Berkshire can use both cash and cheap borrowings.