My portfolio is still good and solid, my 700K stocks in pchem made 8.5% over the short term (I'm not sellling) as I believed I bought a good chunk during the height of the speculation on disaster.

Now the Russia has realized their mistake and caused the crash of the oil prices, they realize they can never compete with saudi arabia and middle east countries.

Middle east production cost per barrel is around USD5, no one can even begin to compete. Russia onshore is 30.

Russia has capitulated, and back to negotiation table.

https://knoema.com/vyronoe/cost-of-oil-production-by-country

Post removed.Why?

Icon8888 asked a simple question, I highlight my stocks to him.

funnily enough,

PE60 stock QL - went up (23% of last year price) 6.9 to 8.11
Yinson - went up (45% of last year price) 4.43 to 6.46
Topglove - went up (45% of last year price) 4.32 to 6.28
Stoneco - went up (26% of last year price ) 31.97 to 40.31

how about my investment yesterday of 700K shares ?
PCHEM - went up (8.5%) 4.35 to 4.72

Did you LEARN something new today holland sifu icon8888?

>
What other stocks don’t get hit in this recent bear market ? Would be happy if you can highlight a few
11/03/2020 10:40 PM

funnily enough,

PE60 stock QL - went up (23% of last year price) 6.9 to 8.11
Yinson - went up (45% of last year price) 4.43 to 6.46
Topglove - went up (45% of last year price) 4.32 to 6.28
Stoneco - went up (26% of last year price ) 31.97 to 40.31

how about my investment yesterday of 700K shares ?
PCHEM - went up (8.5%) 4.35 to 4.72

Did you LEARN something new today holland sifu icon8888?

>
What other stocks don’t get hit in this recent bear market ? Would be happy if you can highlight a few

If you don't believe me and still think INSAS is with it, by ask means use another year to prove your love and buy more of insas at discount price ( same as last year) and collect more and put your entire net worth into it.

If no conviction on the future long term prospects of INSAS, stop repeating and comparing it to QL.

You and I know which company is 13 billion and which one is 460 million.

So, many stories and many speculation. But fact remains. No one wants to take INSAS private.

Why?

Because INSAS is only valuable because it is undervalued. At fair value insas is worthless because no long term prospects.

Many people are willing to pay through their nose for ql, topglove and yinson.

Why?

They have shown their ability to perform historically and promise impressive long term prospects.

That is why QL is overvalued, because they know it will be undervalue 10 years from now.

Action?

Yes you are right. Because we live in the real world. And banks see dangers which you are blind to.

I can tell you the result.

MGO failed.

If it was that easy to do your beloved CEO would have long ago converted warrants and trigger MGO and borrow money from Bank to buy over INSAS.

Why did they NOT do it? Cannot borrow money mah. Simple and easy and true.

If INSAS real value was 2.67 as you say, then answer me a simple question. Why did banks not borrow money to CEO to take over INSAS, do MGO and realize "true" value.

Maybe you should ask this question directly to CEO instead of asking for more dividend.

Assuming including forced selling,

600 million, at 10% the bank interest cost per year is 60 million. He owns 30%, so he only borrow and pay 40 million in interest cost per year. Take out cash and can pay everyone off. Even at rm1.80 he got money to earn.

In accounting land.

But in real world why doesn't bank borrow money to do this corporate

Classic case of those who can't reach for the grapes say it is sour.

My topglove, yinson, stoneco and ql still doing super.

Your stock picks all Holland. Show me one that is still doing well in this environment. You fake Holland sifu think he knows so much but in the end knows nothing.

How is your abmb doing? Success? Iqgroup? Lctitan? SAM?

All your stocks 1 year lows.

Who is the real loser here. If you follow all my picks

Topglove
Ql
Pchem
Gkent
PPHB
Stoneco
Yinson

You would still be up during this time and have ample access to margin to buy attractive stocks.

So, shut up. Everyone at abmb already cursing your mother.

I'm still profitable.
>>>>>>>

con8888 QL growth fuelled by debt

Classic growing itself into bankruptcy
11/03/2020 6:52 AM

Here is the thing about financing debt and financial costs for growth. Is it sustainable? Is the growth in revenue per dollar spent making sense?

And here is the thing about depreciation and amortization. Capital expenditure and assets that you need to understand, and I am sure you do.

Accounting land versus real world.

1. What is the value of an apartment in the middle of nowhere? You build it, it is valued on the books at 200 million. Every year property price goes up.But no one buys it, no one rents it, no one wants it. So, can it be worth 200 million in real world? No. It is worth whatever anyone will pay for it.
2. What is the value of a palm oil mill built in the middle of nowhere? You build it, it is valued on the books at 200 million. Every year it depreciated and is amortised. But everyone needs it, if will run and maintained will bring you huge income and is a must have in a plantation. But after amortisation and depreciation it is worth zero. So, do you throw away your lorry after 4 years?, Do you throw away your crusher, boiler and other machinery after it is fully depreciated and amortised? What is it worth in the REAL world?

https://www.depreciationrates.net.au/machinery

Therefore, accounting value is just a guide for you to understand real world. The problem many investors have is to replace accounting figures with real world understanding.

So, INSAS has a lot of cash? Major shareholder of inari? Financial accounting left right and center? Sure, no doubt. 1.7 billion in accounting value.

Now try to step out into the real world for a bit.
What happens when major owners decide to liquidate inari immediately tomorrow to fund a new project. Will they get full value as in accounting land or only a fraction due to share price cash as in real world.

So step into the real world for a bit. Your "cash" has a amortisation cost which will be realized the moment you sell it. Therefore you real work value is only the interest you can get out of inari aka 5.9 million.

By the way, what is it doing in Australia?

Stop beating a dead horse and be fair.

QL debt and financial cost is being used to fund huge growth. The return on assets and equities justifies it. It is not like lhi or layhong or insas where ever cent spent produces negative returns, failed businesses and lossmaking projects.

This is the reality.

The simple fact of why QL is stable and INSAS is not is because one has a much brighter long term business prospects than the other.

One is targeted to build 1000 family mart stores after which the debt and financial cost will be paid from the earnings and continuously making profits. The other cannot grow tribecar without losing money, cannot build a new dome outlet without losing money on each new shop cannot grow biotech business because revenues not enough to cover expansion.

Just answer this: why in the last 5 years insas share price, revenues and earnings going down and stagnate, while ql share price, earnings and revenues going up?

Simple answer.
Public expectation. Is it justified?
Based on past results, very justified. Ql has been increasing revenue every year and growing net assets.

Simple question to you: who will you support?
The rich spolit kid with 1.7 billion trust fund but only use inheritance money to spend buying frivolous things while waiting for trust fund?

Or the hardworking kid who built 1.7 billion assets out of nothing, has 4 billion revenue every quarter, profitable every year, and tells you trust my performance, I am not done yet, I have more I want to do. I want to double my quarterly revenue to 2 billion and double my earnings.

>>>>>>>>>>
Sslee haha Philip,
Please read INSAS Financial Report. Insas is cash rich. A lot of dividend and interest income. Dividend 2 cents and will ask for more.

Also check QL Financial Report. How much debt and financial cost per year?
10/03/2020 8:38 AM

Post removed.Why?

Why did yinson go up from 6 to 6.30 at this hour? Very simple. Yinson is not actually an oil & gas play. They are a transport play. Their contracts are not based on production per barrel like sapura or armada. Their profits are based on day rate for ship charter over 25 years. Very big difference.

I3lurker, can you stop spamming nonessential things on my portfolio thread? Why don't you start your own and find friends there? You add nothing to the conversation.

Today added 700,000 shares or 3 million in margin Pchem at 4.35.

What do you mean armada know how to structure contract? Read back again, they have the exact same contract details as sapura. Look at their Claire. Same contract. You compare that with yinson contract and tell me it's the same thing.

Don't be stupid, read first then say. You always like to say say before verifying, very dangerous like that...

If you dont understand how their contracts are structured please dont comment. It is written clearly and binding contract, before project begin the client will advance payment to buy the ship for conversion (sunk costs already paid), in eventuality of contract dispute, yinson will own the FPSO plus the penalty of early termination fee.

https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/yinson-gets-fpso-contract-termination-notice/

They used the free FPSO and the advance cash from nippon JX to do conversion for FPSO helang in malaysia.

So who is the fool now? The contracts is straightforward and not based on production, just a simple delivery and transport.

You think Yinson business model like your sapura? Think again loh. Sapura income based on production, share sales per barrel of oil sold. Yinson business model is straight 10 year/25 year contract, per day rate for delivery, with O&M services optional and separate calculate.

Tell me I am wrong.

>>>>>>>


stockraider Remember Yinson is not a wonderful company loh...most of their client production cost above USD 40...u think they don play tricks on yinson in order to survive loh ??

When traders start losing money, then they start becoming long term investors.

I don't see any problems, if you buy wonderful companies you will see the share price will be more crisis proof versus speculated ones.

QL was 6.90 last year, now still holding steady at 8.
Topglove dropped to 4.5 last year, now up to 6.11.
Yinson last year my lowest purchase was 4.09. today still at 6.
Stoneco was 20, today still at 36.
Magni was 2.02, today still 2.09 and enjoying dividends.
Liihen was 2.62, today still at 2.68 and enjoying dividends.

Contrast that to companies that are speculative, with huge debt and high interest payments or buyout plays which didn't happen.

Sapura - 30 cents to 10 cents.
Armada - 23 cents to 16 cents.
Insas - 78 cents to 68 cents.
Bjland - 28 cents to 16 cents.

The fact remains, during good times a lot of speculation on stocks so many share are buoyed by sentiment. During bad times, then suddenly everyone looking for security and safety, and everyone looking for the floatation device.

That is why I always ask investors to buy into wonderful companies ( they always reply everyone got their own methods of making money). During good times everyone complains about the good companies as overvalued and can make monies with speculating penny stocks. However, it is during the bad times that you see the power of investing in wonderful companies.

So continue buying good companies at low prices instead of bad companies at rock bottom price.


As for gkent and Pchem,
Gkent and PCHEM still having good dividends and share buyback, so sleeping well at night should not be a problem.

Still up 50% from 2019 when top up a big quarterly chunk.

How about your beloved counter?


>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by whereyoupunter > Mar 9, 2020 10:37 AM | Report Abuse

eh philip apa macam your beloved counter?

I also own QL and topglove Woh. They never move during this period. How come you don't go there talk 3 talk 4? My overall portfolio including stoneco is still up from 2019.

How about your record? Your 30% sailang into sape now gone to dust leh...

Your insas versus QL bet going far far distance Liao.. ql catch up after 2 year now lapping one round around your pitiful INSAS. So how leh?

>>>>>>>

stockraider but philip talk like an expert & look like very knowledgeable woh....!!

Agreed. Thank God I didn't also buy the following stocks:

Some idiot bought at 2.85 and he don't know why it drop.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-11-13-story-h1480185633-_Icon_Alliance_Bank_One_Off_Provision_Affected_Previous_Quarter_Earning.jsp

Another idiot bought this at 4.15.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-01-30-story-h1457006496-_Icon_LC_Titan_Price_Collapse_Shaken_Shareholders_and_Contrarians_Scram.jsp

This idiot bought at RM 1 expecting led lights all over Malaysia to be replaced by success. Pure speculation.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-02-01-story192265-_Icon_Success_Transformer_Meets_My_Buy_Criteria.jsp

Oh sorry, I think that idiot bought this.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-06-17-story211175-_Icon_IQ_Group_Is_it_About_To_Turn_Around.jsp

Guess what, other than my long term bet on PCHEM,gkent and Serba which I bought recently, my long term holdings into QL and yinson and topglov holding steady. Why? How come?

What are your results like these past few days? Did you sell any sticks out know this was going to happen?

Most likely not.

You don't even know why share price drop today.


>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Mar 9, 2020 5:36 PM | Report Abuse

one key take away from this case is that you should never buy into something you don't understand and assume you know all

Saprnrg deals are structured very differently to say a yinson. Their payments are based on the selling price per barrel of oil shares with owner. So it's a huge risk, every barrel they produce now loses money. If price is good they make tons, but at these prices they might as well stop operations and make more money that way.

Yinson on the other hand is relatively stable due to 25 year delivery contracts where they are paid a firm fix day rate to deliver, and not based on oil price.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Choivo Capital > Mar 9, 2020 3:17 PM | Report Abuse

For Phillip, sell all to go in might make sense.

For me, honestly, for some reason SAPRNG looks very interesting now. Market cap less than 20% of the enterprise value. Banks are funding your bet (because this is nothing but a speculative punt). Would PNB allow SAPNRG to go down right after putting 8bil into the company?

====
Outliar I honestly think it would be a +ev move to sell all your stocks and go all in on PCHEM, not going to do it though obviously but still.
09/03/2020 12:32 PM

If you thought insas was a good buy at 1.00, there is a 30% discount for you now.

>>>>>>>>


Sslee Haha qqq3,
I just withdraw one of my FD due on 9/3/2020. Tomorrow which stocks to buy?

Malaysia government is not 100% from oil like Brunei.
Malaysia pay huge income tax, got manufacturing of semiconductors, got tourism.

And contract already sign. So what are you talking about?


>>>>>>>


freddiehero if goverment no easy money from oil, u think construction can easy get profit ka?
08/03/2020 9:54 AM

Yes, old news. And GKENT as the new maincon will enjoy the difference.

>>>>>>
Trade111 MGK will deal with a lower project cost
08/03/2020 3:37 PM

Oh, my.... That method is so old. Using separate governer and AVR? Here is more efficient and cheaper method.

https://new.siemens.com/global/en/products/energy/energy-automation-and-smart-grid/protection-relays-and-control/siprotec-4/paralleling-device/paralleling-device-siprotec-7ve6.html

Let me introduce you to a non governer method for switching and paralleling power.

I didn't need to write a report. I was doing design & build and testing commissioning of the system.

I am the lead Ir. Engineer ( and chargeman) for the project using Siemens system.

Smart grid supplier.

Again, none of it takes 1 second to synchronize.

Do you even know how electrical changeover system and generator to grid coupling even works???

Not that I am trying to humiliate you or insult you, but if you don't know I am more than willing to teach you.

But if don't know and act like you know is worse because you learn nothing and mislead everyone.

Sslee, we already caught this i3lurker with his pants down for bulshitting.

I don't know about old style or not, but have been doing generstor synchronization using Kingwood since before i3lurker was born. Then using ABB synchronization panel in Sarawak hydro station and using Siemens turbine system for KKIP ranhill powertron in Sabah.

I totally agree with Lee. There is nothing special about your "synchronization" and of course there is no such thing as taking 1 second to synch. Please let me know what brand, what system can do such a thing just by controlling "valves" and running at the speed of light?

What design are you even talking about?

Trying to say others are fake engineers while you yourself talk without any facts is silly.

Grow up and give me exact details of what supplier brand and system can do such a thing? WHAT is the synchronisation system supplier and the turbine and generator supplier and how one single Staten can link all.

Then I will start to believe you.

Until then stop bulshitting.

You forgot gross loans impairment.

Pbb 0.49%
Dbs 1.5%

It's interesting how quantitative and qualitative approaches differ. You used pe, income and return on equity to judge the quality of a bank

For me the more important criteria I look for in a bank is the loan impairments ratio and the loan profile. My idea of the perfect bank is a huge savings and fixed deposit accounts, and a every loan protected by solid collateral.

All the criteria you used to define a banks quality leave out the loan profile and the inherent risks in those loans.

During the subprime crises all the investors only looked at how much they made, not the risk they take to make the money. In fact, only a few analysts tracked the loan impairments ratio, and the income group of the individuals making the loans.

When I bought public Bank in 2012, this became the core tender of my investing policy.

In scuttlebutt terms, " how much leverage is the bank giving out to the corporate company in relation to their assets and ability service the debt".

My ex company was able to borrow 25 million in cash and 25 million in overdraft, all with 10 million in assets simply by raising paid up capital to 10m and having a fixed deposit of 5 million and property values at 5 million.

The car loan I have on the other hand, is based on a 5 year loan with a collateral on the car worth 368,000, and where the interest is paid first during the first 1 year, and the principal paid off after that.

If you have ever borrowed money to your friends and family, you will know borrowing money is a risky business. Assuming that your friends will pay you back with interest and expanding out into the next 5-10 years is a very risky risky business indeed.

Maybank had hyflux. Alliance Bank has London biscuit.

You are saying it won't repeat. How do you even know who they loan to?

All I can say is, if you are someone that likes margin of safety, you should find the margin of safety in banks, aka how much profit does the bank gain in relation to the risk it takes from its customer group.

In any case, you should update your graph with their annual impairments of loan profile, their client base breakdown and the growth of those safe loans profile.

It's all there hidden deep in the notes.

Where most of the important things are.

I3lurker please stop talking bullshit, this is not how synchronization works. Take it from a real engineer.


I'll simplify, and you check with A REAL ENGINEER so you know I don't bullshit like you.

First the coal heats up water which generates steam energy which turns the turbines. The turbine then spins the generator to a required rpm to produce energy at a certain AC frequency (50/60hz). Once this is stabilized, then a giant contactor or coupler ACB will connect the generator to the main grid.

It's 2 different steps in the process. The synchronization only happens once the generators are running at the approved rpm( usually 3600 revolutions per minute) and produce the correct amount of AC power.

And no it's not one plc with steam lag detection. That's silly.

There are two components to it, a mechanical process and three electrical process.

2 PLC. One is usually the autosynch control panel, the other is the generator turbine MCC.

And no synchronization is not done in 1 second. That's also not how it works. You need to match the speeds first, the synch.

"
synchronization is the process of matching parameters such as voltage, frequency, phase angle, phase sequence, and waveform of alternator (generator) or other source with a healthy or running power system. This is done before the generator is reconnected to the power system. "

We control synch on the generator end, not the turbine end.

Syncing on the turbine end causes explosions and no powerplant I have ever commissioned does it the way you explain.

Maybe in Cuba.


>>>>>>>>>
Posted by i3lurker > Mar 8, 2020 2:59 PM | Report Abuse

sychronisation is done within seconds (less than 1 second) by computer who gives a linear programming soltution

the PLC then moves those valves as ordered by computer and sychronisation is completed within 5 to 10 minutes due to steam lag delays


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by i3lurker > Mar 8, 2020 2:05 PM | Report Abuse

"The word electricity refers generally to the movement of electrons (or other charge carriers) through a conductor in the presence of potential and an electric field. The speed of this flow has multiple meanings. In everyday electrical and electronic devices, the signals travel as electromagnetic waves typically with the 50%–99% of the speed of light, while the electrons themselves move much more slowly."

Which family mart has 3 staff or more?
What do you mean by lack of opportunity from family marts? Neither female or male??? What are you taking about? Please elaborate.

Have you ever even been to a family mart before? It is a convenience store that sells freshly made, healthy, good quality food at a much cheaper price than restaurant but much higher quality than mynews or 7-11. The revenue last year was 200 million from family mart alone.

Room to grow?
Family mart target is 1000 stores in Malaysia. They have achieved 200+ and will open 300 by 2021.
Egg and poultry have already started building and will double capacity in Indonesia and Vietnam.
Frozen seafood capacity just completed and is already designed to double production.
Palm oil growth and prices to soon increase.

Those who bought last year happily laughing to the bank.
Those who bought 5 years ago are dancing in the streets.
Those who bought 10 years ago... Well there is me. And I'm confident for the future.

The only ones sore and criticize are those who don't own a single share of QL. There has never been a shareholder of QL saying bad things about the company.

That shows you more about the company than you know.

Outsiders looking in.

>>>>>>


i3lurker when companies grow
they run out of opportunities
another hurdle is business complexity

you can see the evidence of lack of opportunity from family marts
Family marts are a hybrid chapalang shop.
its neither female nor male, its a shemale
Its not a restaurant and also not a sundry shop.
Resulting overheads are high coz 3 staff or more.

For me I look at the business first and the share price second. Every criticism now is on the share price, not the business. So far I have not heard a single bad news on their construction and management from federal government, subcon or prasarana.

I'll change my mind when that happens

>>>>>>>>>

RainT Philip very optimistic on GKENT
06/03/2020 3:36 PM

Following your advice, I put my money where my mouth is, 3 million of the balance 8 million of my margin has been used to average more PCHEM at 5.2.

>>>>>>>>


Outliar Philip, when do you intend to put your money where your mouth is and top up again? (that came off abit crass, not my intention)
27/02/2020 3:49 PM

As of your claim of investors buying into QL because of market perception, that is YOUR market perception. I bought into QL because of continued growth in all time revenue, earnings and share price. My total dividends ( after multiple share splits) has increased far far more than my original buying costs. This has been going on for the last 20 years, I bought it in 2009 after ql was awarded best run Bursa company at the 1 billion market cap. I have held it until today.

In fact, the reason why QL has such a high valuation is because it has been able to perform so well regionally. It is doubling egg production in Indonesia and Vietnam. And the faith is there. Malaysia consumes 5x the eggs of Vietnam and Indonesia because of the wealth of Malaysians and the feeling price of eggs. Vietnam and Indonesia is becoming a very wealthy country, and having their egg consumption double or triple is not hard to achieve.

Or did you forget the PE not only includes family mart valuation, but also includes their frozen fresh seafood business, the surumi business, chicken and eggs, Palm oil, and not to mention their share ownership of boilermech.

At each step of the way there have been detractors who do not know how safe and monopolistic the business structure is.

I'm just happy to be along for the ride.

My entire wealth has been in the back of investing in QL continuously over the years.

Every year I met Jokers like this. In 2017, same explanation of pe growth, value and price. Then QL price doubled, same thing in 2018. Share price up 30%. In 2019, share price goes up from 6.9 to 8.6. so far more than 20% gain you. Is it sustainable? YES.

Today during covid, share price is holding steady.

To set the stage, please read this article on 7-11 Taiwan.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/international.thenewslens.com/amparticle/116880

"It launched in Taiwan in 1979, and didn’t manage to turn a profit for the next six years, finally coming good when it ditched its focus on groceries and vegetables in favor of ready-made, localized goods and foods"

In any case, using benchmarks,

In 2018 7-11 Taiwan has 5220 stores and 152b nt in revenue with 5.6% net profit. Or or store count 500k per year

In 2018 7-11 Malaysia has 2287 stores and 2.2 billion in revenue, meaning roughly 1 million per store. 2.5% net profit.


With the figures of 1.2 million per year per store for family mart, it is already doing 20% more per store than 7-11, sure to Malaysian fascination with clean healthy Japanese food. The operating losses mentioned is due to branch growth and building new stores which drags down short term profitability for long term dominance. One thing you have to understand for each new store built in a different area, you need to build a centralised distribution warehouse center. Once you have a centralised distribution up and running, your new operating costs per store drop dramatically as you can build more stores everywhere and stock them to the brim. This saturation level is why 7-11 Taiwan is able to make a profit with small stores peppered everywhere around Taiwan.

"As at 31st March 2018, it registered an operating loss of RM 7,111,561 on the back of its revenue of RM 75,158,046 (source: CTOS). On 28th August 2018, it had opened 59 outlets if deriving from this, its revenue would be RM 1.274 million per store."

This remark is misleading and shows a lack of deep understanding of the combini business model. You just divide simply revenue per store without looking at the giant warehousing spaces and distribution centers at close distance to is served market. In fact you just have to look at how all the family mart stores are spaced out to know that this is true ( Penang, Johor, melaka and KL) around the North south highway only. In convenience store management, distribution is everything.

If you were to use their started target ( maximum distribution and logistics to store count), they are looking at a maximum efficiency of 1000 stores in West Malaya. At 1.2 million revenue per store, we are looking at 1.2 billion of additional revenue per year and 60 million in earnings per year. In a very very VERY SAFE industry like the convenience store. Simple to understand, simple to replicate template ( with enough cash), and gives additional value to QL as a whole ( surumi, chicken and eggs direct to end user).

Or did you think maxincome is making a loss? QL management has already said that they have broken even in revenue per store, meaning distribution system in each state is already up and running.

All that is left is to open more stores in the right places.

Based on his idea of rise by 200%, in 2020

1. Jaks will be worth rm3.60.
2. Dayang will be 6.60.
3. Mysterious will be worth 1.60.
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/11/21/stocks-mysterious-3800-rally-is-wiped-out-in-minutes

Based on his track record buying stocks like layhong, sure Hebert/ooi will have a good year in 2020.

Layhong!

Omg now this is plagiarism. Did you copy paste everything word for word?

I was hoping you understood the topic better and could formulate an opinion.

Those who really understand their subject matter should be able to summarize into clarity what you believe the message is.

Sadly, I still don't get it.

Then again I find macroeconomics to be too vague to be of economic use.

I still believe there are gems in business the world over, just as buying a piece of Uniqlo and Toyota during the most decades etc would still be profitable, and buying penny stocks in America during the 2009 turnaround would still have been disastrous.

For me the message is clear, stick to business you understand and can see the long term prospects.

Simply buying things in foreign countries ( like xinquan) just by reading the prospectus will always be a bad move.

Really?
World usage of gloves has already increased tremendously due to virus and china shutdown of plants and production. You really think the price will correct downwards?

>>>>>>>>

Posted by rayloo > Mar 6, 2020 4:19 PM | Report Abuse

You can expect significant price correction after the report..

A few red flags for me.

1. Any business with a good core that decides to diversify into property development makes me worry. Soft property market plus huge receivables is a big headache.
2. The impairments and late payments +90 days delay is worrying especially when credit impaired.
3. There are a few deals with suppliers/contractors of director related family members.
4. Development companies building high end properties should have much higher profit margins. This is impacted by high construction costs, which lead back to the director family member related suppliers selling at high price to company. I have seen almost every trick in the book and know how companies with a property development arm can do many tricks to funnel cash out of company in a legal way. I'm not saying kobay is one of them, as their manufacturing am is doing fabulous, but the red flags give me some cause for concern.

But other than that, their valuation, cash position and business growth is a very consistent increasing line.

It's your call to make.

12 billion in revenue, how much earnings do you need to sustain dividend?

Let's do estimate.
50% to mrcb total revenue left 6 billion.
Divided by the next 4 years, 1.5 billion in revenue per year.
6% earnings conservative is 90 million earnings a year without calculative water meter and hospital and wtp.

From 90 million, 50% payout is 45 million.

With heavy share buy back and falling outstanding shares to 538 million shares.

To maintain dividend Yield they just need to pay 38 million in dividends.

Easy.

But will the share price still be at 84 cents?

Actually I dont see what the fuss is about, both qqq3 and OTB both bought shares in JAKS.

So I do not understand why they are upset, both obviously agree with each other.

In any case I do not have any intention of ill will, I am just noting down in my portfolio page the calculations done by OTB as I find it interesting and I am lazy to find it back again later if I need to do comparison of results.

I find both qqq3 and otb useful and interesting to learn from. As they are both more on the technical analysis end (one trades using feel, the other trades using charts and fa), they both bought the same thing.

At the same time the stocks they buy are things that I would not touch.

Perhaps I still have a lot to learn about investing, a long journey left to go.

This is very good advice.

I will also evolve my thinking pattern and stop commenting so much on sslee, calvin and stoneraider. I will let my investing do the talking instead.

>>>>>

i3lurker otb

I stopped beating up Calvin and Stockraider and weakcow
they sound more shrill and more desperate every passing day

no point in beating up people who are already below you.

its like a big 20 ton lorry bully a kancil
05/03/2020 12:27 AM

I think good luck to you la. You have fallen in love with your stock, which is the worse thing for investors. You no longer see the business for what it is off loading, rationalization, downsizing. Whatever others say you will still hug your INSAS to sleep. Good luck to you.

Your stock does not know you love it.

This is why ql worth 13 billion and INSAS worth 400 million. Both have 2 billion in assets.
But one buys family Mart, boilermech, expands to Japan, Australia, Vietnam and Indonesia doubling revenue and profit.

The other sells roset at a loss. Tribecar lossess. Dome Cafe growth versus old Town coffee (frustrating). Melium group lossess. Vigcash losses sold. Biotech lossess.

If ceo continues to go on holiday they will not find another INARI.

Murphy's law is correct: those companies had already gone wrong, which is why for last 5 years share price has been languishing.

Yes I still like my superman family working hard for the company, no days off.

You can go on holiday.

>>>>>>>
QL CEO Dr Chia work OT every Saturday and Sunday, run entire business, do the job of 6 men (planter, mall operator, fisherman, chicken & eggs farmer, retailer) as oppose to INSAS CEO Dato’ Wong holidaying in UK with family from 23th Jan 2019 to 10th Feb 2020.

Recording here for my own record.

>>>>

Posted by OTB > Mar 4, 2020 6:47 PM | Report Abuse

Dear DK66,

I wish to show you the below calculation how I can get RM 248 million.

The cumulative power sales of Vinh Tan 1 were 8.194 billion kwh based on annual 7,238 utilization hours.

Since Hai Duong power plant is the same spec as Vinh Tan 1, I will assume same cumulative power sales were 8.194 billion kwh.
Profit margin is USD 0.024 (2.4 USD cents).
USD to RM conversion is 4.20.
Jaks owns 30% stake.

Calculation
= 8,194 * 0.024 * 4.20 * 30% = RM 248 million.
This profit is tax free.
EPS = 248/651 = 0.38
If PER = 10, the target price is 3.80 in 2021.
If PER = 15, the target price is 5.70 in 2021.

Thank you.

Insas price to value has been abnormal for the last 5 years. Imagine a company with 1.7b assets the same as petronm, except petronm did 11.4 billion revenue and 178 million in earnings. The other 1.7b asset company only does 200 million in revenue and 95 million in earnings. Which one is intrinsically safer and which would you pay more for?

Obviously both are companies I wouldn't touch because of the limited long term prospects.

But another story for another day.

As for PPHB, it is a company with networth of 247 million generating 203 million in revenue.

That is your starting point of asking if this is a business you would buy.
Then you look at earnings, 23 million.
Then you look at asking price for the entire business, 140 million.
Then you look at the long term prospects of the company.

That is how you should look at a stock, as a business.

Not pieces of paper to buy and sell.

Rationally speaking, if you were looking to buy a car,

If someone wanted to sell you a Ferrari worth 1.7 million for 170 thousand cash, would you say OK I'll buy it now? Or would you look everywhere inside and out to find out why the car is selling so cheap?

And if the car has been in sale for the last 5 years with no buyer, I'll be doubly careful.

The trick is to understand the mileage on the car, and how far it can go before it breaks down.

What is your point

Xinquan market value of quoted shares 27 million, net worth based on nosh 921,821,000.00
Parkson market value of quoted shares 197 million, net worth based on nosh 1,856,893,000.00
Asianpac market value of quoted shares 124 million, net worth based on nosh 1,532,243,000.00
Insas market value of quoted shares 437 million, net worth based on nosh 1,776,858,000.00

So many billion dollar companies with high net worth, shouldn't you buy them instead? More ACCOUNTING margin of safety in parkson and xinquan.

The important thing to apply here is logic and rational thinking.

Why are such high net worth companies having such depressed share price for so long? Is the market blind? Is everyone blind?

The answer is very simple and rational. Why don't you look at it like this, it's clear when I put it in this way:

QL networth 2 billion produces yearly revenue of 4.23 billion.
Yinson networth 1.7 billion produces orderbook of 40 billion in projects ( and counting).
Public Bank networth 43 billion produces yearly revenue of 22 billion.
Xinquan networth 921 million produces revenue of -110 million(after contra losses)
Parkson networth of 1.8 billion produces revenue of - 4 billion (if you contra losses)
Asiapac networth 1.5 billion produces yearly revenue of 190 million.
Amazon networth 225 billion produces yearly revenue of 280 billion.
Petronm networth 1.7 billion produces yearly revenue of 11.4 billion.
Insas networth 1.7 billion produces yearly revenue of 170 million.

If you use rational thinking,
1. A business is not a business of it doesn't make money
2. A business cannot generate more cash earnings than its revenue. ( Unless you start going to accounting land). Therefore revenue generation in terms assets is very important.
3. Efficient companies produces outperformance relative to its assets company's.
4. Retained earnings should be used to grow the business, else given out as dividends or share buybacks.

So, would you hire a cheap supervisor who can work OT every Saturday and Sunday, run entire plantation, do the job of 3 men? Or are you the type to overpay for a manager who works only 10% as hard as the supervisor, but has all the master degree, writes beautiful PowerPoint slides, but has no idea how to run the plantation?

I know what I would choose, rationally.

I hope you understand what I mean instead of repeating same old tired story.

Thank you.

Don't worry, if you don't buy, gkent will buy every day 40k shares. Good companies with high cash yield will buy back their shares at low prices.