Before you delete posts like Calvin tan.


>>>>>>>>
Posted by stockraider > Mar 27, 2019 3:51 PM | Report Abuse

U use ur head & think lah....!!

How people can lose when Raider 3 yrs 3 mths TP Rm 3.00 and when the share price only 33 sen leh ??

U must invest long term loh....if u look at the price everyday...u sure get confuse and get panic loh...!!

Believe raider mah, bcos raider is cocksure u will sure make money in 3 yrs time mah....and not 3 mins, 3 hours , 3 days or 3 mths time loh...it is always long term 3 yrs time....u must buy & lock up loh....!!

Who promote sape 3 years 3 months price will be rm3?

You want me to dig back your old post?

If you write one don't dare to admit then fxxk off la, you fake.

Whose maths you write or I write in your post? Or you forgot already who write sape 3 years 3 month rm3.

You mean in Pchem? In all honesty, the effects of covid 19 will have a full effect in the next quarter, as this quarter was due to turnaround and us-china trade war (up to dec this quarter, jan quarter is covid).

I have a feeling the pent up recovering of product prices will be more during the 2nd quarter of 2020 FY.

But in any case with big cap stocks like this the push is slow and steady. More than enough time to monitor.

For me, I will use my dividends to buy more stock after ex-date 12 march, which I suspect will have another drop (or increase, who knows) in share price.

Currently if you assume the normalized EPS to be 15 cents per share per quarter, the normalized PE would be around 60 cents per quarter, PE10. which is very good for a stock of this quality.

I am waiting for a price below RM5 (below IPO price) before I throw another few million into it. Else if it recovers, I will be happy to slowly build up a position.

You know my methods, slowly buy quarter after quarter. I dont have to win big, just be right over the long term.

>>>>>>

Posted by Outliar > Feb 27, 2020 3:49 PM | Report Abuse

Philip, when do you intend to put your money where your mouth is and top up again? (that came off abit crass, not my intention)

Please, just go away and hang around with your friends in bumi armada and sapura. Im busy using my dividends to buy more shares of PCHEM.

you want to do another bet?

In 3 years 3 months time (like you promote mah right?),
PCHEM will be rm10,
your Sapura Energy you said will be worth rm3 right?

Dare to bet?



>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Feb 27, 2020 3:19 PM | Report Abuse

This Philip sohai talk longrun N short run loh...!!

Look at the facts, Philip says Pchem will be Rm 10.00.

But long run now about 1 year it is about Rm 5.80 loh...!!

If u listen to him buy 1 year ago...u will be another sohai loh...!!

In the short term stocks is a popularity contest. In the long term it is a weighing machine. So now why don't you go wag your tail and find other people to chat with in your netx forum and your sapura forum. Maybe Calvin tan will pet your head instead.

I already know your investment concepts and gambling methods.

But in the end talk big and no money.

Say very big with insas warrants but in the end only lose 5k? Wasting time la you.

Are you looking for a friend or people to give you attention?

Sorry, please go away, you keep repeat same story which don't work and I lazy layan you.

Hengyuan.
Bjland.
Insas.
Sapura.
Netx.


>>>>>>>

stockraider I don think so loh...just bcos Ql leading by a very small margin, this Philip start singing already loh...!!

U must remember insas was leading almost for the whole year mah...!!

I think by year end insas will beat QL flat loh...!!

Hi Titan, petrochemical business is not only "plastics". Pchem Produces olefins, derivatives, aromatics and many base materials used in many markets. This is a super compound which is sold to many producers to make many products which currently cannot be replaced with green materials due to price considerations.

Among them:

Apparel
Sports & active wear, socks, hoodies, thermal underwear; lining fabrics.

Home furnishing
Olefin can be used by itself or in blends for indoor and outdoor carpets, carpet tiles, and carpet backing. The fiber can also be used in upholstery, draperies, wall coverings, slipcovers, and floor coverings.

Automotive
Olefin can be used for interior fabrics, sun visors, arm rests, door and side panels, trunks, parcel shelves, and resin replacement as binder fibers.

Industrial
In an industrial setting, olefin creates carpets; ropes, geo-textiles that are in contact with the soil, filter fabrics, bagging, concrete reinforcement, and heat-sealable paper (e.g. tea- and coffee-bags).
Adhesives and sealants
Construction chemicals
Corrosion control chemicals

Cosmetics and drugs
(With their purchase of da Vinci)
Cosmetics raw materials
Electronic chemicals and materials
Flavourings, fragrances, food additives
Pharmaceutical drugs
Specialty and industrial chemicals(
Specialty and industrial gases
Inks, dyes and printing supplies
Packaging, bottles, and containers
Paint, coatings, and resins
Polymer additives
Specialty and life sciences chemicals
Surfactants and cleaning agents

There are so many applications out there, if people stopped using plastic bags, the last people to worry about is PCHEM.

Now maybe you should read up on the isonanol plant being constructed in pangerang by Pchem. The only one of its kind in that size in this region.

No prizes if you can guess what is the application of isonanol.

It is also a country with a terrorist training center, support for Iran, and funnily enough the biggest US airbase in the region.

Donald trump keep scolding Qatar for supporting terrorist but his chief of staff general keep trying to support Qatar because it helps to store US army troops.

>>>>>>

qqq33333333 every few people know Qatar but in fact Qatar is nearest to heaven on earth with world's highest GDP per capital, a population consisting of 90% expatriates and good governance and second safest place on earth, next only to Singapore.
27/02/2020 12:34 PM

It was a hard choice, I hate to sell stocks. I sold ql at 8.6( from my previous purchase of QL at 6.25 during Christmas 2018) to buy more yinson at 6.4 earlier this month. I think almost all industries other than o&g will find themselves hurting in the short term under the virus and trade wars.

But I believed that yinson will get the Ghana contract ( they have previous project there) over international SGM, and in the next few years things will be really looking up for yinson.

Who knows? In a few years it may just be my 3rd 10 bagger company I hold.

>>>>>>>>>

Outliar Wait a min, Philip sold QL?
27/02/2020 12:00 PM

Old Man learn new tricks like buying Apple mah. In either case this is still a small sum under margin and selling at a good Corona discount.

We shall see where this leads.

I'm not saying Serba dinamik is a wonderful company etc, but having done maintenance contracts myself if you don't need to stock products it is quite profitable. And if problems happen in Qatar, they can get out with minimal losses, unlike case in point sumatec.

To be honest Serba for me is a safer bet. I treat them as a specialist company working in an o&g industry but not o&g themselves. Similar to how I previously bought yinson for the long term.

Hopefully they expand their operations away from middle East and concentrate more internationally.

>>>>>>>>

whereyoupunter oldman finally added serba dinamik ah? wakaka
27/02/2020 1:55 PM

Sapura go Holland got la.

As far as I know despite accounting land statistics, stockraider insas is losing 2 year bet with ql. And his big bet on this year stock competition of 30% weight age is not doing well, no dividend, no profits etc. How leh?

As far as I know, you are a fraud. Got no portfolio, got no results. Bjland la , insas warrants mgo la, sapnrg la whatever all bullshit.

Me? Pchem and gkent got lose money meh? No ah. Got no dividend meh? Got ah. Got factory exploded and disappear meh? No ah. Last I check IPIC and LRT3 contract still there and submitted claim to prasarana leh.

Follow you where? NETX ah?


>>>>>>>>>

stockraider As far as i know philip pick on oil n gas Pchem and construction gkent is very poor n all will make losses if follow him loh...!!
27/02/2020 12:27 PM

Really? After looking at the results, got dividend, got profit got sky-high revenue leh.


Unlike netx 76 million cap, 33k revenue, 10 years losses, 17 staff and no NFCP job for u.

My qualitative view on adding Serba dinamik, their main business model is operations and maintenance, all items that require very little in purchasing big ticket items or storing warehouses of equipment. Mostly needed is just simple manpower and high level of expertise in servicing and maintaining equipment ( high engineering skill). They have 21 years of experience in this, their CEO karim is a technical man who knows a thing or two about engineering ( IR in mechanical engineering, same as me in requiring to get a certain level of points every year to keep the ir status and learniwhereng more everyday).

In terms of business prospects, Qatar is their biggest revenue and profit center. They are a unique country, very rich but supporting both Iran and USA ( terrorism and also the biggest US airbase this side of the world).

The interesting part has been that ever since the blockade and embargo ( but Saudi still says they will send aid to Qatar if needed), of Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi etc a lot of contractors and suppliers have dropped ( forced) to leave the country since 2014. Leaving the o&m space pretty much open to Serba dinamik to step in at high margins and huge demand. Going in at cheap prices, using technology transfers from cse global and India subsidiary ( https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/04/13/serba-dinamik-buys-big-stake-in-cse-global), they are building up a localized price with cheap costs to take jobs from international companies.

O&M is an interesting beast, due to its nature you will find that manpower expenses are the biggest cost ( variable costs) which is easily managed compared to inventory. Therefore you will see 1.2 billion in receivables ( below 30 days payment no impairment due to if not payment entire plant stops production not an option to delay, as we know production and profits to owner). On the other hand payables are very low due to only stocking small spare parts and ordering big items only when overhaul needed ( which if maintenance is done right not often).

Serba is also interesting in that it is similar to yinson, where it started out internationally, getting international team together first, then expanding back to Malaysia and SEA.

Is it a good bet? So far it seems good as the results have shown increasing revenues and profits, and a good line of credit from sukuk to fund projects.

We shall monitor and see from the latest qr report coming up to decide what to do.

SilvaMS, do you think QL business only consists of chicken and eggs? If only chicken and eggs I long time drop it loh...

But think about it, a chicken and egg business where you own the feedstock supply and production company? Where your chicken and eggs are sold in family mart? Where the chicken fertilizer is sent down to the palm oil plantations and mills? Where the frozen chicken, frozen seafood is sent to Australia and Japan? Where the biggest surumi supplier this side of town is being turned into ready to eat packages?

Eggs only no one cares. But eggs which make money when everyone else is losing money? Double the production in Vietnamese and Indonesia?

Sell more, drive lhi and layhong to losing quarters and shrinking profits. If eggs don't work, many other industries astound

That is why QL is worth my investment money in the long term.

>>>>>>>>>


SilvaMS Qqq33333..ive made a general statement..no nees to get emotionally involve..answer me this...at supermarket went normal people buy eggs ..did they pick only ql brand only?..people couldnt care ql...or LHi or tpc or etc..they pick eggs only..dont be typical guys just like an eggs ..hehe..
23/02/2020 5:05 PM

Well, I hate disloyal betrayers who use a non existent excuse to grab power from a lawfully elected government.

But having said that, it is true.

He is not laughing or being smart now.

When you fly too near the sun, you get burnt.

Lctitan results is one time gain from disposal.

>>>>>>>

4Q19 PATAMI jumped to RM188m mainly on higher associate income driven by one-off gain from partial disposal of LCUSA’s equity interest amounted to RM140m. Excluding this, core earnings growth was rather minimal at 7% yoy to RM96m

I have 6 million in margin. And main cash assets is family investment.

Firstly, we look to the business itself.
?
Is PCHEM sustaining plant utilisation level above industry benchmark. YES.
What about the sales? While sales are dropping everywhere due to the virus, all production on hold, factories shutting down, businesses dropping, did it go down? No, the revenue of salesactually went up ( due to inventory clearance).

How about profits? Did Pchem lose money during this quarter? NO.

What happened to the profits? Margin compression due to MYR increase vs USD, Pchem clearing stock With the incoming slowdown at bargain prices. Still profitable, while maintaining 7.37% margins during the worst of times.

What is my qualitative view?

It is always an interesting question, sell more at a lower margin, or Sell less at a higher margin. In my view, if the long term demand is there and there is profit to be made, don't lose your existing customers and sell it to them at best market price. At 7% margins, they can do 4.2 billion sales in a world market slowdown, excellent! Drive the other competitors out of business into deep losses and production cuts, then when supply is cut short and demand normalizes, increase price and profits.

The qualitative impact here is this: while all the competitors are losing money and selling less, PCHEM can still make a profit and sell more.

The very definition of a economic juggernaut.

Now: will covid continue, trade war resume? I find it highly unlikely in the next couple of years. Is this a permanent condition for PCHEM, or a salad oil crisis for AMEX? I firmly believe IPIC would not have existed if the damand was not there.

Will product prices normalize? Yes I believe so, in the long run Pchem will be ok. This is probably a perfect storm, trade war+covid19+ soft supply market. But just as much, many petrochemical companies will declare huge losses, cut production and reduce supply in the wake of these factors, leading to a big turnaround when IPIC production picks up by 2021.

I know many of you may be upset and angry at the results, but bare in mind:

In this worst of times, PCHEM is still maintaining revenues, still making 300 million in profit.

I am still fully invested as I don't see anything that will affect the long term business prospects of PCHEM.

I still have a 7 cent dividend this quarter. Which come to around 238k to me, free of tax.

Which I will be using to buy more PCHEM this year at IPO PRICES.

I also have a further 10 million in unutilised margin set aside for these discount days.

But of course, sell if you want. I'm looking to buy more at cheap price

(Shrug)

>>>>>>>

management to sustain plant utilisation level at above industry benchmark.
The Group expects that product prices to stabilise in the coming quarter. This is in view of supply limitation following planned regional plant turnarounds, supported by stable demand. However, we remain cautious amidst market uncertainties caused by the ongoing US-China trade disputes and the COVID-19 outbreak which can further dampen GDP growth.

And in the last 3 years insas and inari revenue and profits has been steadily dropping, long term performance?

Explain to me what good performance do you see?

I am very interested to learn what has grown in INSAS valuation for the last few years in business growth.

https://youtu.be/JvEas_zZ4fM

Treat it as buying businesses instead of buying stocks.

Yes very hard to work out. Let's try.
Strong results, revenue 46 million, profit after tax 31 million. But of course, not all profit is the same. How do we check that? Tax expense ( 2 million). Why pay so little tax?, Shouldn't insas pay 10 million in tax expense like the rest of us?

( mainly due to higher brokerage and corporate
advisory fee income generated by the stock broking and corporate finance advisory units and
higher unrealised gain on fair value changes of financial assets at fair value through profit or
loss. )

Unrealised gain on fair value. Ah, is not cash. It's accounting land. So, what is real?

5.3 million in dividends paid out to preferred shares holder and retail investors.
Very good.

Insas business itself:
Financial services revenue 17.9 m, profit 7.8 m.
Investment holding, revenue 8.8m, profit 5.3m. UNREALISED gain on fair value and foreign exchange 10m
Technology, revenue 2.4m, profit -0.8m. gain from Inari 6.9m.

In terms of year to year, business in terms of REALIZED operations, real revenue and profits has dropped. Gains for this quarter are non cash. In terms of operational profits, revenue and profits are dropping year on year, quarter on quarter in business terms. This business is not growing its retained earnings, and is selling subsidiaries.

Thank you.

Hmmm

Sadly, I just cannot tahan when someone professes to know what is intrinsic value, and yet holds this basket of stocks.

And he says I don't know a thing about intrinsic value...

I know that intrinsic value is the price a rational investor is willing to pay for an investment, given its level of risk.

Why does the market value ql at pe60?, Amazon 87? Salesforce 198? Tesla ?

You can say that the market is wrong. That it is overvalued bla bla bla. That is another question for another day.

The qualitative question here is why does the market value these companies at high pe ratios?

The answers are simple.

1. They hold a dominant position in the industry that is hard to break. Many have tried. But these companies keep on taking market share, brand recognition, growth.

2. They have been growing cash flow, revenues, earnings for years and years. Reinvesting back into the business because the total addressable market is huge. They h

3. While others are losing money, losing customers, shrinking profits these companies keep on growing and growing and growing.

4. These companies by its nature is in a very safe and monopolistic industry. It's history of share price growth begets a history of share price safety. Companies with swings in volatility of price action and
profits rarely have a consistent growth in PE.

PRICE IS WHAT YOU PAY. VALUE IS WHAT YOU GET.

Imagine selling Amazon, Tesla just because the share price has gone up and picking say Walmart or Faraday future just because the pe is low. Why? Unlike in accounting land, in the real world, a company with low pe can go even lower ( or lose money), while companies with high pe can normalize ( due to margin expansion) or go even higher ( due to market performance).

Never look at share price as a measure of success. Look at the business itself to drive growth.


>>>>>>>>>>

kcchongz - luckily thanks to enigmatic (appreciate your effort), i finally have some of his stock picks.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/13147.jsp, with a good portfolio tracker too.

Why the 10 stocks above? Of course that is because I think they present value. I had others too like SP Setia, Johore Tin, Scientex, Padini, Zhulian, Freight, Coastal Contracts, icap etc but I have sold them just recently, trying to reduce my investment in the market.

he even has a glowing commentary on the stocks that he sold and those that he bought.

Wow, no wonder he was shy to share his portfolio returns. from 2013 onwards, he sold scientex to buy jobstreet, johore tin to buy plenitude.

Dear sslee, please do not propogate speculation And unfair comments off activities that has not happened.

I invite you to read what did happen.

http://www.sarawakreport.org/2020/02/malaysias-meltdown-moment-inside-story/

Comparing profitable gkent with 200 million cash and 11 billion confirmed order and netx 33k revenue and 10 years of losses and NO orderbook is laughable.

I totally agree. And I would not have said anything, except that for someone who is supposed to teach fundamental lessons, he finds the gall to comment heavily on i3 forum on dayang, eversendai, ql, kyy and myself for great stories.

But, if his investment methods were really good I would totally follow his analysis.

But I guess it is hard to find a good teacher out there.


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by popo92 > Feb 25, 2020 11:37 AM | Report Abuse

Philip, don’t be too harsh on kc. I still have great respect for him teaching very basic fundamental and spending so much time writing so many useful stuffs for beginners. Yes he may not prove he’s a great investor who make tons of money but he doesn’t need to prove he’s one. It’s his choice. Whether he’s an average or shrewd investor, he don’t deserve be to critised after all.

On this I agree 100%.

Those who have the ability to make stocks in the market don't need to make money ( or time) by selling classes. None of the real investors did. Charlie was a lawyer. Warren was a stock salesman at Falk and then a professional analyst at Graham Newman before starting his partnership.

Obviously to get outside investments he has to show his returns and put money where his mouth.

The question remains the same, if you are so good that you can charge money teaching how to stock pick, why don't I just give you my money to invest and you get a proportion of the profits? Very few actually can make outsized returns and use vague concepts like ( helping you save money and reduce losses), instead of helping you choose winners.

As for stock market, I agree you don't have to be a rocket scientist, but the most important criteria is being RATIONAL. Doing rational things means choosing profitable companies and growing companies, investing more as it grows. Being rational during crisis, not selling just for the sake of selling or buying just for the sake of diversification ( diworsification). A lot of these do not require Monte Carlo simulations or writing complex formulas and branching patterns. Being able to rationally ( not looking for confirmation bias) understand the future prospects of a company, why management does things in a certain way, a rational mind if far more important than smartness or intelligence.

>>>>>>>>>

mostly I think all internet sifus are rubbish....and stock market is not about intelligent or smartness.....

Holland sifu shrugging. He doesn't know he bought the bank with the highest loan impairments among the big banks, has the biggest exposure to construction loans and commercial lending and the smallest number of deposits and savings accounts.

You think London biscuit is the only impairment? Tip of the iceberg.

Today 2.31.

(Shrug)

>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 20, 2020 8:52 AM | Report Abuse

I bought at 260, pocketed 6 Sen dividend

My cost 254

Now 240

Meaning lost 5%

So what ?

(Shrug)

It is very hard for Calvin tan to comment.

You see, he is what in the industry is known as a penny stocks operator. He promotes a huge basket of stocks (40+), and keeps repeating of the few stocks in his basket that work out ( carimin lafarge, etc) and hides those that don't work out under his bed.

He gives the false impression that he is a chun chun call, runs a WhatsApp group for his "friends" and tries to use that to artificially push up microcap stocks. In this case his new stock darling is NETX ( judging by the amount of promotional articles he has been writing lately, despite horrible latest q report).


https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp
>>>>>>>>

Posted by tcking > Feb 24, 2020 1:04 PM | Report Abuse

Calvin, u were promoting this counter a year ago when its price was 55c. What happen now? Simultaneously, u were screaming sell for Greatec when its price then was $1 but now Greatec is more than $3. Your research was terrible. Any comment?

Appreciate it very much enigmatic. Finally thanks to the eager efforts of the internet, I have more information on the various gurus on i3.


SSLEE - insas, xinquan, hengyuan, dayang. You can see he is learning his way, slowly improving his investing methods, slowly moving from just low PE high NTA stocks (property counters), going towards businesses that grow profits and earnings yearly. I'm thinking he will soon realize the stocks choices he chose not to make versus his insas holdings will be a drag on the most important commodity: time.

Choivo Capital - hengyuan, timecom, petronm, rcecap, abmb, etc etc. He writes many articles, but buys just as much stocks. You can see he is trying to learn by process of elimination, diversifying to minimize his losses (and also his profits). He is so happy to get his first 100% stock return (but regrets that he puts so little into it).

Icon8888 - ecovest warrants, jaks warrants, bumi armada, lctitan. Contrarian gambler, you can see he likes to be called a contrarian. Whether he makes money or not, he doesn't care.

stockraider - gambler. his gambling push on insas warrants and sapura energy and emotional rants show a interesting form of internet addiction.

Calvintaneng - penny stock pusher. Writes articles on 40+ stocks per year, hides those that didn't work out, promotes the hell out of those that does.

qqq333 - london biscuit, vitrox, serba dinamik, kpower. Speculator buying on attitude. He says he makes money, I like the attitude. I wish I knew his volume, date of purchase and date of selling so I can see if attitude works.

3iii - dlady, nestle. long term holder of wonderful companies (you only need 3 in life). His replies and lack of emotional angry responses, shows someone who doesn't need to gamble or buy a huge bucket of stocks. Either a lucky investor or a good one, it doesn't matter as long as you make money.

kcchongz - luckily thanks to enigmatic (appreciate your effort), i finally have some of his stock picks.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/13147.jsp, with a good portfolio tracker too.

Why the 10 stocks above? Of course that is because I think they present value. I had others too like SP Setia, Johore Tin, Scientex, Padini, Zhulian, Freight, Coastal Contracts, icap etc but I have sold them just recently, trying to reduce my investment in the market.

he even has a glowing commentary on the stocks that he sold and those that he bought.

Wow, no wonder he was shy to share his portfolio returns. from 2013 onwards, he sold scientex to buy jobstreet, johore tin to buy plenitude.

kcchongnz I have to reiterate that the 6-9 months of the good performance posted is too short a record to boast about. It could very well be due to luck. Really the measurement of successful investing does not just based on a short-term of seven months performance. Investing to me is a long term endeavour. So we have to look at the more important long-term return. So how to measure the long term performance of your portfolio?

Table 1 below shows the performance measurement of my portfolio for one to five years. Again this is just for discussion purpose. I hope others do not construe this as a self bragging exercise. Some of the stocks only have prices of 2-3 years as they are either only listed 2-3 years ago, or data is not available from the Yahoo website.
Table 1: Stock prices 1-5 years

kcchongz used to agree with me, I am sad that he no longer does.

He did get one thing right. His results are the very much due to luck.

It's ok, I would rather be amused by how you say you are a long term investor, but then proceed to buy and sell rcecap at highs and lows, then buy again at highs, oblivious to your original qualitative analysis on the risk profile of rcecap, but again blinded by the quantitative side (the greed part when you saw increased revenues and profits). Or do you have another RM5,000 research article on a stock idea coming up?

But at least, you do try to keep a semi honest portfolio of returns. AS you do know the importance of having a portfolio to match your articles.

https://choivocapital.com/2019/12/29/2019-fund-update/

kcchongz knows this is important, because he keeps repeating lessons from warren buffet instead of some indian guru teaching value investing in delhi.

I struggle to explain this important fact to him, but he doesn't seem to get it.

however, having xx xx as a investment item with percentage does nothing for your reliability. Or your returns. Which I do believe is semi honest.

However, I also once knew a guy named madoff who had 10-12% returns consistently over a 17 year period
https://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/12/if-you-ever-see-a-chart-like-this-run-away-fast.html

so, no one really knows your results as well.

Is it one big lie as well? Well,at least we can monitor your long term results from investments in timecom and petronm, which apparently you said is your biggest weightage (but dont really know really).

Still, honesty is far more important character in an investor.

Except for new zealand guy. I think it is high time I stopped replying to academicians with no stock picks.


>>>>>>>

Posted by Choivo Capital > Feb 24, 2020 7:24 PM | Report Abuse

Phillip ah,

If you think QL can grow earnings per share by around 22% per year for the next 15 years. And lets say you value a company (with similar capital structures) that can grow 10% per year for the next 15 years at say 10 PE.

I thought this was what you have been doing all this while, copy pasting from sooner investment book without any real results of note.

I can show my understanding of intrinsic value by hire I buy stoneco, how I buy topglov, how I buy yinson, how I buy QL, how I buy gkent and how I buy PCHEM.

You only know how to write without any results to guide from.

Wasting time.

Let me know when you do finally start investing in the stock market.

>>>>>>>>>

kcchongnz As a matter of fact, you don't even seem to understand what you copy and paste from Investopedia.

And also, what you can get from investopedia is just some simplistic explanation, good as a guide only.
24/02/2020 5:45 PM

Yes it is a number. It has served me well buying QL in 2009, and holding it through 2018,2019 and until currently 2020. I used qualitative models, scuttlebutt, governance, and target market figures to arrive at a figure for QL, which I deem to be currently fairly valued in 2020, and very undervalued in 2018. Obviously this is based on real application of stock purchases, holding and buying more after quarterly reports, market journals, the performance of competitors like layhong, lhi and the target market future vs competitors like CP.Foods.

You who seem to only know quantitative valuation just seek to use past extrapolated data to do your valuation.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2019-06-12-story210548-Dayang_and_contrarian_investing_kcchongnz.jsp

what about the future? no conviction here.

You don't see any problem? Nothing at all?

That is why you have lost your underwear punting on Sendai from RM1.40 to 60 sen.

Still in denial? How to become a 200 millionaire?

Can! Go to live in Indonesia.
13/06/2019 6:52 AM

but you find the resolve to comment much about other investors. For someone who talks about understanding intrinsic value so much, you have only to see your own results to see the depth of your understanding.

Ah, it is a waste of time explaining further.

Good day to you, and GOOD DAY.

>>>>>>>>

Intrinsic Value Explained
Intrinsic value is an umbrella term with useful meanings in several areas. Most often the term implies the work of a financial analyst who attempts to estimate an asset's intrinsic value through the use of fundamental and technical analysis.

There is no universal standard for calculating the intrinsic value of a company, but financial analysts build valuation models based on aspects of a business that include qualitative, quantitative and perceptual factors.

Qualitative factors—such as business model, governance, and target markets—are those items specific to the what the business does. Quantitative factors found in fundamental analysis include financial ratios and financial statement analysis. These factors refer to the measures of how well the business performs. Perceptual factors seek to capture investors perceptions of the relative worth of an asset. These factors are largely accounted for by means of technical analysis.

Creating an effective mathematical model for weighing these factors is the bread and butter work of a financial analyst. The analyst must use a variety of assumptions and attempt to reduce subjective measures as much as possible. In the end, however, any such estimation is at least partly subjective. The analyst compares the value derived by this model to the asset's current market price to determine whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.

Some analysts and investors might place a higher weighting on a corporation's management team while others might view earnings and revenue as the gold standard. For example, a company might have steady profits, but the management has violated the law or government regulations, the stock price would likely decline. By performing an analysis of the company's financials, however, the findings might show that the company is undervalued.

Typically, investors try to use both qualitative and quantitative to measure the intrinsic value of a company, but investors should keep in mind that the result is still only an estimate.

sports and investment is 2 different things. one is defined by age, the other is defined by results. In either case, everything that kcchongz has written so far can be repeated ad verbatim by youtube videos and reading investopedia or just reading through investing books.

but it is the real application of investment that interests me. I simply found it interesting that someone who said QL was overvalued in 2017, 2018,2019, 2020 while the shareprice and results reached all time highs, and am interested to know what kcchongz did buy in 2017,2018,2019 and 2020 instead.

but since sslee is more interested in great stories and extrapolation of the past stock performance instead of learning what stocks mr kcchongz has picked and what his real time analysis were, what went right, what went wrong, where does he go from here,

then I realized that sslee is not interested in improving his practical knowledge, but more interested in being academically proficient.

For many years, academics were championing random walk theories and efficient markets exactly because they were not getting results from buying stocks, and assumed everyone else had pretty much the same results.

The only way Warren Bufffet (and the superinvestors of doddsville) could prove them wrong was simply through the application of long term results.

It was the same with passive investing versus professional active investing. It was only after a bet was made between warren against the active managed funds (over 10 years, 1 million dollar bet), that we could have conclusive proof that fund managers mutual funds were inefficient because of the fees charged.

The vehemence of kcchongz leads me to one conclusion:

You don't have a clue what intrinsic value is. But you presume to know what price is, which is bad because you dont keep track of your results, or how it compares versus your picks. I can accept that, and will filter accordingly, the same as I do when koon yew yin promotes his golden rule concept, I dont simply take what he says, but compares it to his results to decide whether the "golden rule" is worth listening to or applying. Unfortunately (which is the case with all paid gurus), their investing methods rarely comes with long term results, so we do not know how they actually fare.

In any case, we come to a change of governments, Tun has stepped down (due to too many complaints by sslee), and the future of businesses is at hand.

As prices and valuation go crazy in unstable malaysia, if you buy stocks expecting one year, 2 year or 3 year results, then you are in for many rude surprises.

Those who buy with a long term view of business prospects 5 years, 10 years from now, will see huge opportunity in the market.



>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 24, 2020 12:55 PM | Report Abuse

the share price goes up doesn't mean it is not overvalue.

You once remarked this in your article on QL.

To me, the most risky thing in investing is to buy something at high price.

For me price is what you pay, value is what you get. To those that don't understand value, the riskiest thing is to buy something that you don't understand.

All I am saying is, you have never recommended or written an article on a stock that you thought would be good to buy in your articles.

"In fact, let me ask him when and where KC has “recommended” to buy or sell any share in i3investor?"

You commented on QL that it is overvalued in 2018, 2019, 2020. You were proven wrong as many institutions and individuals found value and safety in the business, growing dividends and assets.

You seem to only comment on safe stocks, judge how bad it is etc. In dayang, vitrox etc etc.

Well, when the question is put to you on what stocks you thought were great, what did you buy, what did you sell, what you are holding today, etc, you seem to have no comment.

If you feel butthurt when someone points this out, it is more a measure of your character as a person than someone wanting to hurt or make fun of another person.

"Trained and worked as an Engineer. Passion in finance and investing. Later qualified as a personal financial planner and a finance and investment professional. Now engage in training in fundamental value investing through internet."

I truly believed that you were a professional.

As a professional, you must realize the importance of certification. As an investor, the only certification that is important is your stockpicking ability.

This is just facts. Not making fun of you. Not hurting you.

But the bald truth.

If you find it painful, then I apologize and will stop commenting on your blogs from now on.

I am always trying to learn something new everyday.

Peace.

You feel fun in poking fun at other people's strategies? Great stories and whatnot? But when the obvious point is brought up, in that you comment academically but without any substance, you say poking fun in others and gain satisfaction while hurting others?

Why is it that every "guru" responds the same when questioned on their application of theories?

When one seeks knowledge in how you apply your theories in real life, what real results you had, was every investment successful, and what is your success rate, you balk and stop short and consider it an affront?

Come on. Stop being so childish. If you are so quick to comment on other opinions, you should be ready to back it up with results. Or at the very least be honest about your investing results.

Otherwise you are another stockraider, Calvin tan, and qqq333.

FYI, if you averaged 10% a year, it would already be a cause for celebration and a validation of your investing methods that you seek to teach and write ebooks about.

Would you listen to Howard marks, Warren buffet or ray Dalio if their investment strategies were not backed up by hard results? You obviously know the answer to that.

Would you read long articles by Jon choivo, icon8888 or calvintaneng if they did not come with a history of more winners versus losers?

Obviously not.

Stop being so emotional. Investing is anything but.

Results based investing is the most important criteria in listening to ebook "advice".

Anything else is just promotion and marketing.

Or do you not agree? Would you read a book by some random guru that charges 8k per class, but makes more money from organising investing classes than investing themselves?

Try it. Apply it in real life. Start a portfolio of stocks in 2020 based on your investing acumen and knowledge and skills. Let us judge and see and applaud your 1 year,3 year, and 5 year results of your chosen stock. Or be more practical, and keep a tracked record of continuous buying and selling so we can understand how your investing mind works, and your application theories and concepts.

Be like Warren and munger.

DO AS I DO, NOT AS I SAY.

No they don't.

The last time they did was in 2011, when HUAWEI was still freshly in Malaysia. Now that their equipment is entrenched in the infra backbone, companies like NETX are no longer needed, HUAWEI deals directly with TM, Digi and uMobile.

Tell me again when the infra network is made by HUAWEI, sold by HUAWEI and supported by HUAWEI, why they need to get a job from NETX?

That is why NETX last job for TM is in 2011. After that they changed into a mobile app maker selling PAYALLZ and gemspot, both failed projects cost millions of dollars to develop, millions of dollars to market, and have no results so far.

In fact, Telekom had already signed mou with HUAWEI to use their infra network solution, which is cheaper than Nokia or Ericsson today.

Tell me, what infra network system does NETX sells again? If they couldn't get any sales from 2012 to 2020... Obviously not competitive enough.

>>>>>>>>>>>

calvintaneng Note: Telekom needs Netx expertise in Network infrar enhancement
23/02/2020 11:21 PM

Ah we have come to the gist of the matter.

I have maintained a results oriented approach exactly for this matter. The results tracked here are since 2019, so individuals like kcchongz and icon8888 and sslee can see how I properly do my investments, when I buy, when I sell. You can clearly see me top up 6 million here when Pchem was priced at 6.3, and also when I started buying GKENT and how much. When I sell my stocks you can immediately see and question.

It is an honest conversation. You can see immediately my investing methods and whether I am with listening to.

The feature has been in i3 investor for a long time now.

Icon8888 on the other hand,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-01-30-story-h1457006496-019-_Icon_LC_Titan_Price_Collapse_Shaken_Shareholders_and_Contrarians_Scram.jsp

Writes glowing articles like these, buys at 4.15. then proceeds to keep quiet about his real results. When pushed he quietly says now that he sold at a small loss and just dipped his fingers. He talks about conviction and holding through bad times. But you don't see his volume of buying, his cut loss criteria, when he buys it when he sells.

But if course he writes beautiful pump and dump articles, being a master of buying warrants. How did his insas warrants perform? You can ask stockraider for that. But at least they both bought, so you know at heart both of them are gamblers.

Was for stock pick competition, did you even put in your picks? Ever?
If you have ( which is why I respect choivo when I compete every year), you will know stocks rarely pop out year by year and one should look at it over a long period. Hence, why I say you should track a continuous 10 year period.

As for pointing out gkent and Pchem results, I thank you for pointing it out. The conversation continues, as my goal for GKENT is a 2024 completion of LRT3 11 billion earnings and 1 billion mrt2 warnings which as on hold for negotiation with new pH government ( approved last year), and PCHEM 42 billion IPIC complex ( test run end 2019, full run 2020, normalized production 2021), my investment methods and results are clearly documented, so you cannot say when I tell you I bought PCHEM at its lowest point in 10 years (6.3), that I did not have conviction when it grew it's capacity by 3.3 million, years later. My investment methods are for multi year growth of earnings. Of course I have to buy companies which have wonderful assets, high roe, cash position, little debt, and orderbook that can fill up for the next 5-10 years. Selling at a wonderfully low valuation. Obviously I did not buy QL at a high valuation ( you can see what I bought more of in 2019), but I did pick up GKENT at all time lows, and PCHEM at all time lows.

For me, when I tell someone here I bought ql in 2009, topglove in 2010, yinson in 2012, how can I expect you to believe me when I hold until today, ask you to come over to kl to look for my remisier so I can show you my results? That would be silly.

Again, for someone who is so quick to compare results, your inability to put one up is disconcerting.

Maybe I should start writing an e-book now that I have retired.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 23, 2020 1:00 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 23, 2020 11:35 AM | Report Abuse
( You seem so quick to judge. I have posted up portfolio with results. You only have arrogant words).


So how great is your result?
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp

How are your recent picks on PChemical and GKent compared to others who pick other stocks during the same period here?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2019/2019-12-31-story-h14...

I stopped going to netx thread a while ago. No point posting until October when nfcp2 results come out. If Calvin is right and netx won tender, then we have to congratulate him and say good choice.

If the tender still come out and no hint of orders to netx, then the results or earnings from gempro and payallz will not justify a 72 million dollar company.

Don't worry, those with eyes to see will notice all the red flags in netx, and how the stock holders are trying to influence and manipulate the comments to be positive to netx only.

Those who ignore the red flags and still buy are usually small fishes who just started out and can easily recoup their losses next time. A lesson in investing in the stock market should always be tempered with fear.

Those with capital to invest in NETX will look to the meaning behind the mass deletion of information and get to the same realisation we did.

Investhor/bursamaster, how can you say you are not the same person?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/InvesthorsHammer/2019-03-18-story-h1457189090-MJPERAK_BSKL_Code_8141_Time_to_Catchup_with_brother_KUB.jsp

This is an article you wrote. Notice the grammar, the colour coding, the charts, the explanations. They are both not only very similar, but exactly the same.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2020-02-04-story-h1483049632-Quality_Investing_kcchongnz.jsp

This is an example of another sifu kcchongz, notice how he writes his article, his structure, his prose is so different from you?

Come on bursamaster/investhor is the same person. Not only in how he writes his articles, but also how he picks his stocks.

You both have a tendency to pick micro cap stocks, penny stocks.

Why?

Why create multiple identity? Promote those kinds of stocks which always seem to crash right after promotion?

What is your goal?

How come Calvin tan sell 8 houses to buy netx shares still not in top 30 ah shareholders?

The can I advise you was an ode to ms birkin bag lady ( too bad you don't live in Malaysia).

Lets not argue whose method of investing is right or wrong. And especially get into talking about other people's characters. Yes people can judge themselves, like from what I have written and what you have.

( You seem so quick to judge. I have posted up portfolio with results. You only have arrogant words).

The fact of the matter is: no one is asking or arguing about investing method, as you seem to have none except some nicely worded theories.

Method implies application. Application implies results. When gurus stop short of reviewing their own methods, but repeat generally accepted investment theologies, it becomes religion.

And religion does not need application, or methods.

Ok. Good luck in your investing. With these kinds of questions, your arrogant tone, and your lack of results. You need every bit of it.


>>>>>>>>>>>

I would say a valuation of a company selling eggs, surimi, palm oil, things in a convenient stores selling at a PE even at of 50 (not to say 60) is way too rich. As a matter of fact, most super investors in the world would say that. Affirmative. It would be a very bad deal for me to buy it.

S tell me, can its profit double the next year, and what about the next? And why do you think at PE 60 for the kinds of business in QL, that it is still a good buy? A good buy even at PE 100? and how you justify it with some numbers? Or your great stories is good enough?

This is almost the same answer the American trader lady gave to me.

I will repeat one more time, the purpose of putting in your long term portfolio results is not to show off how rich or great you are, but to understand in practice how you buy and when you sell, what stocks you bought that you thought were good choices but turned into turds( like how Warren buffet was not shy about admitting his decker shoes investment). Everyone can learn something from failures and winners, only those without results would think it being showoff or proud to show a trackable year by year results portfolio.

It shows a lot of your real character in being defensive and negative when one is asking about your real world performance to understand more on your selection criteria.

You remind me of Jeff skillings.

Mark to market accounting much?


>>>>>>>>>

My purpose of writing is not to tell oh I have these great stocks, and I have these bad stocks. Or here is my ten years result, "see how great and rich I am"

One last free lesson on the concept of convenient stores.

Not all convenience stores are the same. Why did ql choose family mart franchise versus say a Lawson, oxxo or alimentation?

For comparisons between accounting land and real life, we can understand the business model of a trader Joe's (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trader_Joe%27s) and family mart versus say a mynews or 7-11.

One sells store space like a regular supermarket, the other uses vertical integration to sell its own branded goods and fresh foods instead of reselling others people's stuff. More in store profits, better customer loyalty, fresher and better management of goods, lower risk of margin contraction from famous brands squeezing you.

Use the same analogy for an in-n-out burger store versus a McDonald's or KFC and you will quickly learn how to spot wonderful companies before they become pe50-pe60 company's.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/78dne4/in-n-out-burger-might-be-too-good-to-be-true

Accounting land versus real life.

Yes sslee, I totally agree.

Especially when those who do not have any results to speak of sell classes and lessons at high prices.

I recently paid rm8k to attend a class run by an American woman who apparently was a legendary trader winning awards etc, trying to learn new things and understand new technical analysis methods to improve my own methods.

But when I politely asked for her trading portfolio history so I can simulate and understand how she does her buying patterns, she hedged and fumed saying how she buys and sell many option contracts everyday, too many to show and some are based on her proprietary indicator systems so unable to just give it to me.

And here I am wondering what I received paying her 8k for a ta class, and how she found time to trade everyday when she flies around the world teaching classes at 8k per person.

I find I am better served with a free class here,

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html

With analysis, a year to year explanation of what this sifu bought, why he bought it, how he changed his selection criteria through the years, his long term results, his losses and profits, how he performed versus the market, and even an audited portfolio showing figures and numbers.

This was sold free.

Tell me again why I should pay for a class from someone who doesn't maintain a portfolio with results?

Even sslee I respect.

He first become top 30 shareholders in xinguan buying based on sound PE, ROE and NTA principles. However, he assumed efficient markets theory, not realising that a profitable Chinese company with billion of cash why would he list IPO in Malaysia instead of China? Markets are not efficient ( or fair), thus learning his first lesson of accounting land versus real life. Honesty, company management, performance has a definite effect on price you pay per earnings. Margins of real life safety.

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdf

Then he invested in insas, based on sound principles of buying based on margin of accounting safety ( there are many kinds of safety you see). Net assets, the dividend yield from inari, valuation of existing assets as a safety for future, buying below intrinsic value. However he assumed all assets are the same value ( in dollars, not quality), as accounting methods cannot put a risk profile into each asset ( which is why Moody's standard and Poor's exist). Thus he cannot explain why insas is always undervalued by institutions. The one important rule is this: a company that increases revenue and earnings while maintaining shareholder value is GUARANTEED to rise in stock value. Any other method has exceptions, a high dividend yields company can crash in stock price, a high earnings company, with dropping revenues can crash in stock price, a high revenue company with no profit, can crash in stock price. A company that doesn't take debt to maximize results, can lose interest in stock price.

When sslee made money is when he realized, growing profits, earnings and revenues increases is the best way for a stock price to increase. He hit oil when he invested in o&g companies, right time, right place. Now, bouyed by good results, he has to maintain this for the next 10-20 years. Question is, sell what to buy what? Can he maintain or repeat his success consistently?

Now we come to kcchongz character. Sure, he writes good articles and sound principles. But what stocks does he buy? What is his long term performance? Does he did deep and buy more when his stocks go south? Does he cut loss and stay in cash like TTB?

If he maintains his results like an ICAP, what would it look like?

The lessons you can pick up for free from investopedia, and annual letters from Berkshire, memos from Howard marks.

The man kcchongz is a mystery. Does he even make his money from running classes or stock investing?

I know the American woman I paid 8k to does it from conducting classes. Her one year schedule is full, her advanced classes run 15-20k.

But still, no portfolio to analyze the quality of her investing.

Sslee,

Thank you

How to follow you? You sold your 8 houses, bought netx at 1.5 Sen and pushed Microcap stock up. Now you are simply waiting for the next idiot to buy those shares from you so you can book profit.

However.... A 72 million cap company with 33,000 revenue, no profit for last 10 years, reselling telco gear that manufacturing giant huawei is selling directly to the end user... What competitive advantage does netx have for them to get nfcp tender? The last TM tender they won was in 2011. The greater fool theory?

>>>>>>>

calvintaneng Those who followed Calvin bought Netx at 1 sen now sitting on 100% gain as it is now 2 sen

Sasbadi, maybulk ( buy and retract within weeks, like someone who doesn't know what he is doing).

Fyi you also sold carimin far too early, and not hold until today (documented) meaning you also did not know what you are doing.

This is why so many people detest you so much. You keep repeating your results on buying cheap carimin and looking up kps and buying lafarge and how you make 6 figures of profits bla bla bla.

The problem is you promoted so many stocks last year.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

When you put in your results versus the backdrop of all your stock picks, it turns into the little boy who cried wolf too many times.

If you had bought only 3 stocks last year kps, lafarge and carimin, your words would have a lot of weight. But you went further to promote anjoo, pantech, asianpac, so many other random bullshit companies, but only concentrate those that went up?

You have cried wolf too many times.

The advice seems sound. But what are you doing going against all the sound advice buying companies like talamt, netx and scomies?

And writing such glowing articles like this...

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2019-09-19-story225697-SCOMI_ENERGY_7045_THE_HIDDEN_GEM_IN_O_G_BULL_RUN_Calvin_Tan_Research.jsp

And this...

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2019-06-27-story-h1478253342-TALAMT_IS_TRANSFORMING_BY_PAST_WEALTH_PRESENT_WEALTH_FUTURE_WEALTH_Calv.jsp

Or maybe Calvin should just stop writing his own articles and repost his johor sifu articles instead?

FYI, stay far away from NETX. When Calvin tan says he sold 8 houses to buy a company that was worth 36 million but still cannot crack top30 shareholders, you know that something is wrong somewhere.

Fyi, ever since I retired, I have started a long term portfolio comparison in i3. Here it is:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp

This started in 2019. On top of this, I also added 200,000 shares of stoneco:nyse bought at beginning of last year 4th January. All documented and written with real time article, valuation and results. Not great stories, but full of real life as it happened reporting. I bare my investing methods AND how I perform them.

This is so you can see why I don't need to sell classes and write promotional ebooks.

Even koon yew yin that you like to compare and say you are a better investor than he is ( many times you said you write that you helped him save money).

The fact is, he is in the top 30 shareholders of many companies that made millions. Not articles but from annual reports and findings. Yes here made huge losses from Jaks, which I respect because unlike kcchongz who has never EVER revealed his bad investment choices, only how to pick good stocks, we know for a fact that kyy made millions in dayang, hengyuan, liihen etc.

That is how you should preface you ebooks.

Although obviously not in the arrogant way kyy does it, but in the softspoken respectful way that the kcchongz I like does it.

This is my 10 years results. These are what I bought, these are what I sold. This is my 10 year performance. If you like my performance, this is my ebook and my classes.

Fyi OTB does the same thing.