Sadly, I just cannot tahan when someone professes to know what is intrinsic value, and yet holds this basket of stocks.

And he says I don't know a thing about intrinsic value...

I know that intrinsic value is the price a rational investor is willing to pay for an investment, given its level of risk.

Why does the market value ql at pe60?, Amazon 87? Salesforce 198? Tesla ?

You can say that the market is wrong. That it is overvalued bla bla bla. That is another question for another day.

The qualitative question here is why does the market value these companies at high pe ratios?

The answers are simple.

1. They hold a dominant position in the industry that is hard to break. Many have tried. But these companies keep on taking market share, brand recognition, growth.

2. They have been growing cash flow, revenues, earnings for years and years. Reinvesting back into the business because the total addressable market is huge. They h

3. While others are losing money, losing customers, shrinking profits these companies keep on growing and growing and growing.

4. These companies by its nature is in a very safe and monopolistic industry. It's history of share price growth begets a history of share price safety. Companies with swings in volatility of price action and
profits rarely have a consistent growth in PE.

PRICE IS WHAT YOU PAY. VALUE IS WHAT YOU GET.

Imagine selling Amazon, Tesla just because the share price has gone up and picking say Walmart or Faraday future just because the pe is low. Why? Unlike in accounting land, in the real world, a company with low pe can go even lower ( or lose money), while companies with high pe can normalize ( due to margin expansion) or go even higher ( due to market performance).

Never look at share price as a measure of success. Look at the business itself to drive growth.


>>>>>>>>>>

kcchongz - luckily thanks to enigmatic (appreciate your effort), i finally have some of his stock picks.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/13147.jsp, with a good portfolio tracker too.

Why the 10 stocks above? Of course that is because I think they present value. I had others too like SP Setia, Johore Tin, Scientex, Padini, Zhulian, Freight, Coastal Contracts, icap etc but I have sold them just recently, trying to reduce my investment in the market.

he even has a glowing commentary on the stocks that he sold and those that he bought.

Wow, no wonder he was shy to share his portfolio returns. from 2013 onwards, he sold scientex to buy jobstreet, johore tin to buy plenitude.

Dear sslee, please do not propogate speculation And unfair comments off activities that has not happened.

I invite you to read what did happen.

http://www.sarawakreport.org/2020/02/malaysias-meltdown-moment-inside-story/

Comparing profitable gkent with 200 million cash and 11 billion confirmed order and netx 33k revenue and 10 years of losses and NO orderbook is laughable.

I totally agree. And I would not have said anything, except that for someone who is supposed to teach fundamental lessons, he finds the gall to comment heavily on i3 forum on dayang, eversendai, ql, kyy and myself for great stories.

But, if his investment methods were really good I would totally follow his analysis.

But I guess it is hard to find a good teacher out there.


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by popo92 > Feb 25, 2020 11:37 AM | Report Abuse

Philip, don’t be too harsh on kc. I still have great respect for him teaching very basic fundamental and spending so much time writing so many useful stuffs for beginners. Yes he may not prove he’s a great investor who make tons of money but he doesn’t need to prove he’s one. It’s his choice. Whether he’s an average or shrewd investor, he don’t deserve be to critised after all.

On this I agree 100%.

Those who have the ability to make stocks in the market don't need to make money ( or time) by selling classes. None of the real investors did. Charlie was a lawyer. Warren was a stock salesman at Falk and then a professional analyst at Graham Newman before starting his partnership.

Obviously to get outside investments he has to show his returns and put money where his mouth.

The question remains the same, if you are so good that you can charge money teaching how to stock pick, why don't I just give you my money to invest and you get a proportion of the profits? Very few actually can make outsized returns and use vague concepts like ( helping you save money and reduce losses), instead of helping you choose winners.

As for stock market, I agree you don't have to be a rocket scientist, but the most important criteria is being RATIONAL. Doing rational things means choosing profitable companies and growing companies, investing more as it grows. Being rational during crisis, not selling just for the sake of selling or buying just for the sake of diversification ( diworsification). A lot of these do not require Monte Carlo simulations or writing complex formulas and branching patterns. Being able to rationally ( not looking for confirmation bias) understand the future prospects of a company, why management does things in a certain way, a rational mind if far more important than smartness or intelligence.

>>>>>>>>>

mostly I think all internet sifus are rubbish....and stock market is not about intelligent or smartness.....

Holland sifu shrugging. He doesn't know he bought the bank with the highest loan impairments among the big banks, has the biggest exposure to construction loans and commercial lending and the smallest number of deposits and savings accounts.

You think London biscuit is the only impairment? Tip of the iceberg.

Today 2.31.

(Shrug)

>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 20, 2020 8:52 AM | Report Abuse

I bought at 260, pocketed 6 Sen dividend

My cost 254

Now 240

Meaning lost 5%

So what ?

(Shrug)

It is very hard for Calvin tan to comment.

You see, he is what in the industry is known as a penny stocks operator. He promotes a huge basket of stocks (40+), and keeps repeating of the few stocks in his basket that work out ( carimin lafarge, etc) and hides those that don't work out under his bed.

He gives the false impression that he is a chun chun call, runs a WhatsApp group for his "friends" and tries to use that to artificially push up microcap stocks. In this case his new stock darling is NETX ( judging by the amount of promotional articles he has been writing lately, despite horrible latest q report).


https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp
>>>>>>>>

Posted by tcking > Feb 24, 2020 1:04 PM | Report Abuse

Calvin, u were promoting this counter a year ago when its price was 55c. What happen now? Simultaneously, u were screaming sell for Greatec when its price then was $1 but now Greatec is more than $3. Your research was terrible. Any comment?

Appreciate it very much enigmatic. Finally thanks to the eager efforts of the internet, I have more information on the various gurus on i3.


SSLEE - insas, xinquan, hengyuan, dayang. You can see he is learning his way, slowly improving his investing methods, slowly moving from just low PE high NTA stocks (property counters), going towards businesses that grow profits and earnings yearly. I'm thinking he will soon realize the stocks choices he chose not to make versus his insas holdings will be a drag on the most important commodity: time.

Choivo Capital - hengyuan, timecom, petronm, rcecap, abmb, etc etc. He writes many articles, but buys just as much stocks. You can see he is trying to learn by process of elimination, diversifying to minimize his losses (and also his profits). He is so happy to get his first 100% stock return (but regrets that he puts so little into it).

Icon8888 - ecovest warrants, jaks warrants, bumi armada, lctitan. Contrarian gambler, you can see he likes to be called a contrarian. Whether he makes money or not, he doesn't care.

stockraider - gambler. his gambling push on insas warrants and sapura energy and emotional rants show a interesting form of internet addiction.

Calvintaneng - penny stock pusher. Writes articles on 40+ stocks per year, hides those that didn't work out, promotes the hell out of those that does.

qqq333 - london biscuit, vitrox, serba dinamik, kpower. Speculator buying on attitude. He says he makes money, I like the attitude. I wish I knew his volume, date of purchase and date of selling so I can see if attitude works.

3iii - dlady, nestle. long term holder of wonderful companies (you only need 3 in life). His replies and lack of emotional angry responses, shows someone who doesn't need to gamble or buy a huge bucket of stocks. Either a lucky investor or a good one, it doesn't matter as long as you make money.

kcchongz - luckily thanks to enigmatic (appreciate your effort), i finally have some of his stock picks.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/13147.jsp, with a good portfolio tracker too.

Why the 10 stocks above? Of course that is because I think they present value. I had others too like SP Setia, Johore Tin, Scientex, Padini, Zhulian, Freight, Coastal Contracts, icap etc but I have sold them just recently, trying to reduce my investment in the market.

he even has a glowing commentary on the stocks that he sold and those that he bought.

Wow, no wonder he was shy to share his portfolio returns. from 2013 onwards, he sold scientex to buy jobstreet, johore tin to buy plenitude.

kcchongnz I have to reiterate that the 6-9 months of the good performance posted is too short a record to boast about. It could very well be due to luck. Really the measurement of successful investing does not just based on a short-term of seven months performance. Investing to me is a long term endeavour. So we have to look at the more important long-term return. So how to measure the long term performance of your portfolio?

Table 1 below shows the performance measurement of my portfolio for one to five years. Again this is just for discussion purpose. I hope others do not construe this as a self bragging exercise. Some of the stocks only have prices of 2-3 years as they are either only listed 2-3 years ago, or data is not available from the Yahoo website.
Table 1: Stock prices 1-5 years

kcchongz used to agree with me, I am sad that he no longer does.

He did get one thing right. His results are the very much due to luck.

It's ok, I would rather be amused by how you say you are a long term investor, but then proceed to buy and sell rcecap at highs and lows, then buy again at highs, oblivious to your original qualitative analysis on the risk profile of rcecap, but again blinded by the quantitative side (the greed part when you saw increased revenues and profits). Or do you have another RM5,000 research article on a stock idea coming up?

But at least, you do try to keep a semi honest portfolio of returns. AS you do know the importance of having a portfolio to match your articles.

https://choivocapital.com/2019/12/29/2019-fund-update/

kcchongz knows this is important, because he keeps repeating lessons from warren buffet instead of some indian guru teaching value investing in delhi.

I struggle to explain this important fact to him, but he doesn't seem to get it.

however, having xx xx as a investment item with percentage does nothing for your reliability. Or your returns. Which I do believe is semi honest.

However, I also once knew a guy named madoff who had 10-12% returns consistently over a 17 year period
https://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/12/if-you-ever-see-a-chart-like-this-run-away-fast.html

so, no one really knows your results as well.

Is it one big lie as well? Well,at least we can monitor your long term results from investments in timecom and petronm, which apparently you said is your biggest weightage (but dont really know really).

Still, honesty is far more important character in an investor.

Except for new zealand guy. I think it is high time I stopped replying to academicians with no stock picks.


>>>>>>>

Posted by Choivo Capital > Feb 24, 2020 7:24 PM | Report Abuse

Phillip ah,

If you think QL can grow earnings per share by around 22% per year for the next 15 years. And lets say you value a company (with similar capital structures) that can grow 10% per year for the next 15 years at say 10 PE.

I thought this was what you have been doing all this while, copy pasting from sooner investment book without any real results of note.

I can show my understanding of intrinsic value by hire I buy stoneco, how I buy topglov, how I buy yinson, how I buy QL, how I buy gkent and how I buy PCHEM.

You only know how to write without any results to guide from.

Wasting time.

Let me know when you do finally start investing in the stock market.

>>>>>>>>>

kcchongnz As a matter of fact, you don't even seem to understand what you copy and paste from Investopedia.

And also, what you can get from investopedia is just some simplistic explanation, good as a guide only.
24/02/2020 5:45 PM

Yes it is a number. It has served me well buying QL in 2009, and holding it through 2018,2019 and until currently 2020. I used qualitative models, scuttlebutt, governance, and target market figures to arrive at a figure for QL, which I deem to be currently fairly valued in 2020, and very undervalued in 2018. Obviously this is based on real application of stock purchases, holding and buying more after quarterly reports, market journals, the performance of competitors like layhong, lhi and the target market future vs competitors like CP.Foods.

You who seem to only know quantitative valuation just seek to use past extrapolated data to do your valuation.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2019-06-12-story210548-Dayang_and_contrarian_investing_kcchongnz.jsp

what about the future? no conviction here.

You don't see any problem? Nothing at all?

That is why you have lost your underwear punting on Sendai from RM1.40 to 60 sen.

Still in denial? How to become a 200 millionaire?

Can! Go to live in Indonesia.
13/06/2019 6:52 AM

but you find the resolve to comment much about other investors. For someone who talks about understanding intrinsic value so much, you have only to see your own results to see the depth of your understanding.

Ah, it is a waste of time explaining further.

Good day to you, and GOOD DAY.

>>>>>>>>

Intrinsic Value Explained
Intrinsic value is an umbrella term with useful meanings in several areas. Most often the term implies the work of a financial analyst who attempts to estimate an asset's intrinsic value through the use of fundamental and technical analysis.

There is no universal standard for calculating the intrinsic value of a company, but financial analysts build valuation models based on aspects of a business that include qualitative, quantitative and perceptual factors.

Qualitative factors—such as business model, governance, and target markets—are those items specific to the what the business does. Quantitative factors found in fundamental analysis include financial ratios and financial statement analysis. These factors refer to the measures of how well the business performs. Perceptual factors seek to capture investors perceptions of the relative worth of an asset. These factors are largely accounted for by means of technical analysis.

Creating an effective mathematical model for weighing these factors is the bread and butter work of a financial analyst. The analyst must use a variety of assumptions and attempt to reduce subjective measures as much as possible. In the end, however, any such estimation is at least partly subjective. The analyst compares the value derived by this model to the asset's current market price to determine whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.

Some analysts and investors might place a higher weighting on a corporation's management team while others might view earnings and revenue as the gold standard. For example, a company might have steady profits, but the management has violated the law or government regulations, the stock price would likely decline. By performing an analysis of the company's financials, however, the findings might show that the company is undervalued.

Typically, investors try to use both qualitative and quantitative to measure the intrinsic value of a company, but investors should keep in mind that the result is still only an estimate.

sports and investment is 2 different things. one is defined by age, the other is defined by results. In either case, everything that kcchongz has written so far can be repeated ad verbatim by youtube videos and reading investopedia or just reading through investing books.

but it is the real application of investment that interests me. I simply found it interesting that someone who said QL was overvalued in 2017, 2018,2019, 2020 while the shareprice and results reached all time highs, and am interested to know what kcchongz did buy in 2017,2018,2019 and 2020 instead.

but since sslee is more interested in great stories and extrapolation of the past stock performance instead of learning what stocks mr kcchongz has picked and what his real time analysis were, what went right, what went wrong, where does he go from here,

then I realized that sslee is not interested in improving his practical knowledge, but more interested in being academically proficient.

For many years, academics were championing random walk theories and efficient markets exactly because they were not getting results from buying stocks, and assumed everyone else had pretty much the same results.

The only way Warren Bufffet (and the superinvestors of doddsville) could prove them wrong was simply through the application of long term results.

It was the same with passive investing versus professional active investing. It was only after a bet was made between warren against the active managed funds (over 10 years, 1 million dollar bet), that we could have conclusive proof that fund managers mutual funds were inefficient because of the fees charged.

The vehemence of kcchongz leads me to one conclusion:

You don't have a clue what intrinsic value is. But you presume to know what price is, which is bad because you dont keep track of your results, or how it compares versus your picks. I can accept that, and will filter accordingly, the same as I do when koon yew yin promotes his golden rule concept, I dont simply take what he says, but compares it to his results to decide whether the "golden rule" is worth listening to or applying. Unfortunately (which is the case with all paid gurus), their investing methods rarely comes with long term results, so we do not know how they actually fare.

In any case, we come to a change of governments, Tun has stepped down (due to too many complaints by sslee), and the future of businesses is at hand.

As prices and valuation go crazy in unstable malaysia, if you buy stocks expecting one year, 2 year or 3 year results, then you are in for many rude surprises.

Those who buy with a long term view of business prospects 5 years, 10 years from now, will see huge opportunity in the market.



>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 24, 2020 12:55 PM | Report Abuse

the share price goes up doesn't mean it is not overvalue.

You once remarked this in your article on QL.

To me, the most risky thing in investing is to buy something at high price.

For me price is what you pay, value is what you get. To those that don't understand value, the riskiest thing is to buy something that you don't understand.

All I am saying is, you have never recommended or written an article on a stock that you thought would be good to buy in your articles.

"In fact, let me ask him when and where KC has “recommended” to buy or sell any share in i3investor?"

You commented on QL that it is overvalued in 2018, 2019, 2020. You were proven wrong as many institutions and individuals found value and safety in the business, growing dividends and assets.

You seem to only comment on safe stocks, judge how bad it is etc. In dayang, vitrox etc etc.

Well, when the question is put to you on what stocks you thought were great, what did you buy, what did you sell, what you are holding today, etc, you seem to have no comment.

If you feel butthurt when someone points this out, it is more a measure of your character as a person than someone wanting to hurt or make fun of another person.

"Trained and worked as an Engineer. Passion in finance and investing. Later qualified as a personal financial planner and a finance and investment professional. Now engage in training in fundamental value investing through internet."

I truly believed that you were a professional.

As a professional, you must realize the importance of certification. As an investor, the only certification that is important is your stockpicking ability.

This is just facts. Not making fun of you. Not hurting you.

But the bald truth.

If you find it painful, then I apologize and will stop commenting on your blogs from now on.

I am always trying to learn something new everyday.

Peace.

You feel fun in poking fun at other people's strategies? Great stories and whatnot? But when the obvious point is brought up, in that you comment academically but without any substance, you say poking fun in others and gain satisfaction while hurting others?

Why is it that every "guru" responds the same when questioned on their application of theories?

When one seeks knowledge in how you apply your theories in real life, what real results you had, was every investment successful, and what is your success rate, you balk and stop short and consider it an affront?

Come on. Stop being so childish. If you are so quick to comment on other opinions, you should be ready to back it up with results. Or at the very least be honest about your investing results.

Otherwise you are another stockraider, Calvin tan, and qqq333.

FYI, if you averaged 10% a year, it would already be a cause for celebration and a validation of your investing methods that you seek to teach and write ebooks about.

Would you listen to Howard marks, Warren buffet or ray Dalio if their investment strategies were not backed up by hard results? You obviously know the answer to that.

Would you read long articles by Jon choivo, icon8888 or calvintaneng if they did not come with a history of more winners versus losers?

Obviously not.

Stop being so emotional. Investing is anything but.

Results based investing is the most important criteria in listening to ebook "advice".

Anything else is just promotion and marketing.

Or do you not agree? Would you read a book by some random guru that charges 8k per class, but makes more money from organising investing classes than investing themselves?

Try it. Apply it in real life. Start a portfolio of stocks in 2020 based on your investing acumen and knowledge and skills. Let us judge and see and applaud your 1 year,3 year, and 5 year results of your chosen stock. Or be more practical, and keep a tracked record of continuous buying and selling so we can understand how your investing mind works, and your application theories and concepts.

Be like Warren and munger.

DO AS I DO, NOT AS I SAY.

No they don't.

The last time they did was in 2011, when HUAWEI was still freshly in Malaysia. Now that their equipment is entrenched in the infra backbone, companies like NETX are no longer needed, HUAWEI deals directly with TM, Digi and uMobile.

Tell me again when the infra network is made by HUAWEI, sold by HUAWEI and supported by HUAWEI, why they need to get a job from NETX?

That is why NETX last job for TM is in 2011. After that they changed into a mobile app maker selling PAYALLZ and gemspot, both failed projects cost millions of dollars to develop, millions of dollars to market, and have no results so far.

In fact, Telekom had already signed mou with HUAWEI to use their infra network solution, which is cheaper than Nokia or Ericsson today.

Tell me, what infra network system does NETX sells again? If they couldn't get any sales from 2012 to 2020... Obviously not competitive enough.

>>>>>>>>>>>

calvintaneng Note: Telekom needs Netx expertise in Network infrar enhancement
23/02/2020 11:21 PM

Ah we have come to the gist of the matter.

I have maintained a results oriented approach exactly for this matter. The results tracked here are since 2019, so individuals like kcchongz and icon8888 and sslee can see how I properly do my investments, when I buy, when I sell. You can clearly see me top up 6 million here when Pchem was priced at 6.3, and also when I started buying GKENT and how much. When I sell my stocks you can immediately see and question.

It is an honest conversation. You can see immediately my investing methods and whether I am with listening to.

The feature has been in i3 investor for a long time now.

Icon8888 on the other hand,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-01-30-story-h1457006496-019-_Icon_LC_Titan_Price_Collapse_Shaken_Shareholders_and_Contrarians_Scram.jsp

Writes glowing articles like these, buys at 4.15. then proceeds to keep quiet about his real results. When pushed he quietly says now that he sold at a small loss and just dipped his fingers. He talks about conviction and holding through bad times. But you don't see his volume of buying, his cut loss criteria, when he buys it when he sells.

But if course he writes beautiful pump and dump articles, being a master of buying warrants. How did his insas warrants perform? You can ask stockraider for that. But at least they both bought, so you know at heart both of them are gamblers.

Was for stock pick competition, did you even put in your picks? Ever?
If you have ( which is why I respect choivo when I compete every year), you will know stocks rarely pop out year by year and one should look at it over a long period. Hence, why I say you should track a continuous 10 year period.

As for pointing out gkent and Pchem results, I thank you for pointing it out. The conversation continues, as my goal for GKENT is a 2024 completion of LRT3 11 billion earnings and 1 billion mrt2 warnings which as on hold for negotiation with new pH government ( approved last year), and PCHEM 42 billion IPIC complex ( test run end 2019, full run 2020, normalized production 2021), my investment methods and results are clearly documented, so you cannot say when I tell you I bought PCHEM at its lowest point in 10 years (6.3), that I did not have conviction when it grew it's capacity by 3.3 million, years later. My investment methods are for multi year growth of earnings. Of course I have to buy companies which have wonderful assets, high roe, cash position, little debt, and orderbook that can fill up for the next 5-10 years. Selling at a wonderfully low valuation. Obviously I did not buy QL at a high valuation ( you can see what I bought more of in 2019), but I did pick up GKENT at all time lows, and PCHEM at all time lows.

For me, when I tell someone here I bought ql in 2009, topglove in 2010, yinson in 2012, how can I expect you to believe me when I hold until today, ask you to come over to kl to look for my remisier so I can show you my results? That would be silly.

Again, for someone who is so quick to compare results, your inability to put one up is disconcerting.

Maybe I should start writing an e-book now that I have retired.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 23, 2020 1:00 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 23, 2020 11:35 AM | Report Abuse
( You seem so quick to judge. I have posted up portfolio with results. You only have arrogant words).


So how great is your result?
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp

How are your recent picks on PChemical and GKent compared to others who pick other stocks during the same period here?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2019/2019-12-31-story-h14...

I stopped going to netx thread a while ago. No point posting until October when nfcp2 results come out. If Calvin is right and netx won tender, then we have to congratulate him and say good choice.

If the tender still come out and no hint of orders to netx, then the results or earnings from gempro and payallz will not justify a 72 million dollar company.

Don't worry, those with eyes to see will notice all the red flags in netx, and how the stock holders are trying to influence and manipulate the comments to be positive to netx only.

Those who ignore the red flags and still buy are usually small fishes who just started out and can easily recoup their losses next time. A lesson in investing in the stock market should always be tempered with fear.

Those with capital to invest in NETX will look to the meaning behind the mass deletion of information and get to the same realisation we did.

Investhor/bursamaster, how can you say you are not the same person?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/InvesthorsHammer/2019-03-18-story-h1457189090-MJPERAK_BSKL_Code_8141_Time_to_Catchup_with_brother_KUB.jsp

This is an article you wrote. Notice the grammar, the colour coding, the charts, the explanations. They are both not only very similar, but exactly the same.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2020-02-04-story-h1483049632-Quality_Investing_kcchongnz.jsp

This is an example of another sifu kcchongz, notice how he writes his article, his structure, his prose is so different from you?

Come on bursamaster/investhor is the same person. Not only in how he writes his articles, but also how he picks his stocks.

You both have a tendency to pick micro cap stocks, penny stocks.

Why?

Why create multiple identity? Promote those kinds of stocks which always seem to crash right after promotion?

What is your goal?

How come Calvin tan sell 8 houses to buy netx shares still not in top 30 ah shareholders?

The can I advise you was an ode to ms birkin bag lady ( too bad you don't live in Malaysia).

Lets not argue whose method of investing is right or wrong. And especially get into talking about other people's characters. Yes people can judge themselves, like from what I have written and what you have.

( You seem so quick to judge. I have posted up portfolio with results. You only have arrogant words).

The fact of the matter is: no one is asking or arguing about investing method, as you seem to have none except some nicely worded theories.

Method implies application. Application implies results. When gurus stop short of reviewing their own methods, but repeat generally accepted investment theologies, it becomes religion.

And religion does not need application, or methods.

Ok. Good luck in your investing. With these kinds of questions, your arrogant tone, and your lack of results. You need every bit of it.


>>>>>>>>>>>

I would say a valuation of a company selling eggs, surimi, palm oil, things in a convenient stores selling at a PE even at of 50 (not to say 60) is way too rich. As a matter of fact, most super investors in the world would say that. Affirmative. It would be a very bad deal for me to buy it.

S tell me, can its profit double the next year, and what about the next? And why do you think at PE 60 for the kinds of business in QL, that it is still a good buy? A good buy even at PE 100? and how you justify it with some numbers? Or your great stories is good enough?

This is almost the same answer the American trader lady gave to me.

I will repeat one more time, the purpose of putting in your long term portfolio results is not to show off how rich or great you are, but to understand in practice how you buy and when you sell, what stocks you bought that you thought were good choices but turned into turds( like how Warren buffet was not shy about admitting his decker shoes investment). Everyone can learn something from failures and winners, only those without results would think it being showoff or proud to show a trackable year by year results portfolio.

It shows a lot of your real character in being defensive and negative when one is asking about your real world performance to understand more on your selection criteria.

You remind me of Jeff skillings.

Mark to market accounting much?


>>>>>>>>>

My purpose of writing is not to tell oh I have these great stocks, and I have these bad stocks. Or here is my ten years result, "see how great and rich I am"

One last free lesson on the concept of convenient stores.

Not all convenience stores are the same. Why did ql choose family mart franchise versus say a Lawson, oxxo or alimentation?

For comparisons between accounting land and real life, we can understand the business model of a trader Joe's (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trader_Joe%27s) and family mart versus say a mynews or 7-11.

One sells store space like a regular supermarket, the other uses vertical integration to sell its own branded goods and fresh foods instead of reselling others people's stuff. More in store profits, better customer loyalty, fresher and better management of goods, lower risk of margin contraction from famous brands squeezing you.

Use the same analogy for an in-n-out burger store versus a McDonald's or KFC and you will quickly learn how to spot wonderful companies before they become pe50-pe60 company's.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/78dne4/in-n-out-burger-might-be-too-good-to-be-true

Accounting land versus real life.

Yes sslee, I totally agree.

Especially when those who do not have any results to speak of sell classes and lessons at high prices.

I recently paid rm8k to attend a class run by an American woman who apparently was a legendary trader winning awards etc, trying to learn new things and understand new technical analysis methods to improve my own methods.

But when I politely asked for her trading portfolio history so I can simulate and understand how she does her buying patterns, she hedged and fumed saying how she buys and sell many option contracts everyday, too many to show and some are based on her proprietary indicator systems so unable to just give it to me.

And here I am wondering what I received paying her 8k for a ta class, and how she found time to trade everyday when she flies around the world teaching classes at 8k per person.

I find I am better served with a free class here,

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html

With analysis, a year to year explanation of what this sifu bought, why he bought it, how he changed his selection criteria through the years, his long term results, his losses and profits, how he performed versus the market, and even an audited portfolio showing figures and numbers.

This was sold free.

Tell me again why I should pay for a class from someone who doesn't maintain a portfolio with results?

Even sslee I respect.

He first become top 30 shareholders in xinguan buying based on sound PE, ROE and NTA principles. However, he assumed efficient markets theory, not realising that a profitable Chinese company with billion of cash why would he list IPO in Malaysia instead of China? Markets are not efficient ( or fair), thus learning his first lesson of accounting land versus real life. Honesty, company management, performance has a definite effect on price you pay per earnings. Margins of real life safety.

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdf

Then he invested in insas, based on sound principles of buying based on margin of accounting safety ( there are many kinds of safety you see). Net assets, the dividend yield from inari, valuation of existing assets as a safety for future, buying below intrinsic value. However he assumed all assets are the same value ( in dollars, not quality), as accounting methods cannot put a risk profile into each asset ( which is why Moody's standard and Poor's exist). Thus he cannot explain why insas is always undervalued by institutions. The one important rule is this: a company that increases revenue and earnings while maintaining shareholder value is GUARANTEED to rise in stock value. Any other method has exceptions, a high dividend yields company can crash in stock price, a high earnings company, with dropping revenues can crash in stock price, a high revenue company with no profit, can crash in stock price. A company that doesn't take debt to maximize results, can lose interest in stock price.

When sslee made money is when he realized, growing profits, earnings and revenues increases is the best way for a stock price to increase. He hit oil when he invested in o&g companies, right time, right place. Now, bouyed by good results, he has to maintain this for the next 10-20 years. Question is, sell what to buy what? Can he maintain or repeat his success consistently?

Now we come to kcchongz character. Sure, he writes good articles and sound principles. But what stocks does he buy? What is his long term performance? Does he did deep and buy more when his stocks go south? Does he cut loss and stay in cash like TTB?

If he maintains his results like an ICAP, what would it look like?

The lessons you can pick up for free from investopedia, and annual letters from Berkshire, memos from Howard marks.

The man kcchongz is a mystery. Does he even make his money from running classes or stock investing?

I know the American woman I paid 8k to does it from conducting classes. Her one year schedule is full, her advanced classes run 15-20k.

But still, no portfolio to analyze the quality of her investing.

Sslee,

Thank you

How to follow you? You sold your 8 houses, bought netx at 1.5 Sen and pushed Microcap stock up. Now you are simply waiting for the next idiot to buy those shares from you so you can book profit.

However.... A 72 million cap company with 33,000 revenue, no profit for last 10 years, reselling telco gear that manufacturing giant huawei is selling directly to the end user... What competitive advantage does netx have for them to get nfcp tender? The last TM tender they won was in 2011. The greater fool theory?

>>>>>>>

calvintaneng Those who followed Calvin bought Netx at 1 sen now sitting on 100% gain as it is now 2 sen

Sasbadi, maybulk ( buy and retract within weeks, like someone who doesn't know what he is doing).

Fyi you also sold carimin far too early, and not hold until today (documented) meaning you also did not know what you are doing.

This is why so many people detest you so much. You keep repeating your results on buying cheap carimin and looking up kps and buying lafarge and how you make 6 figures of profits bla bla bla.

The problem is you promoted so many stocks last year.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

When you put in your results versus the backdrop of all your stock picks, it turns into the little boy who cried wolf too many times.

If you had bought only 3 stocks last year kps, lafarge and carimin, your words would have a lot of weight. But you went further to promote anjoo, pantech, asianpac, so many other random bullshit companies, but only concentrate those that went up?

You have cried wolf too many times.

The advice seems sound. But what are you doing going against all the sound advice buying companies like talamt, netx and scomies?

And writing such glowing articles like this...

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2019-09-19-story225697-SCOMI_ENERGY_7045_THE_HIDDEN_GEM_IN_O_G_BULL_RUN_Calvin_Tan_Research.jsp

And this...

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2019-06-27-story-h1478253342-TALAMT_IS_TRANSFORMING_BY_PAST_WEALTH_PRESENT_WEALTH_FUTURE_WEALTH_Calv.jsp

Or maybe Calvin should just stop writing his own articles and repost his johor sifu articles instead?

FYI, stay far away from NETX. When Calvin tan says he sold 8 houses to buy a company that was worth 36 million but still cannot crack top30 shareholders, you know that something is wrong somewhere.

Fyi, ever since I retired, I have started a long term portfolio comparison in i3. Here it is:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp

This started in 2019. On top of this, I also added 200,000 shares of stoneco:nyse bought at beginning of last year 4th January. All documented and written with real time article, valuation and results. Not great stories, but full of real life as it happened reporting. I bare my investing methods AND how I perform them.

This is so you can see why I don't need to sell classes and write promotional ebooks.

Even koon yew yin that you like to compare and say you are a better investor than he is ( many times you said you write that you helped him save money).

The fact is, he is in the top 30 shareholders of many companies that made millions. Not articles but from annual reports and findings. Yes here made huge losses from Jaks, which I respect because unlike kcchongz who has never EVER revealed his bad investment choices, only how to pick good stocks, we know for a fact that kyy made millions in dayang, hengyuan, liihen etc.

That is how you should preface you ebooks.

Although obviously not in the arrogant way kyy does it, but in the softspoken respectful way that the kcchongz I like does it.

This is my 10 years results. These are what I bought, these are what I sold. This is my 10 year performance. If you like my performance, this is my ebook and my classes.

Fyi OTB does the same thing.

A business operating an online supermarket would have been too much for you at PE 100. Or did you buy Amazon?

A business selling 100k electric cars a year being valued more than many major car makers selling millions of cars despite not making a profit for many years. Or did you buy Tesla?

How about buying a business that operates as a bus company plying the Singapore/johor routes that is now worth 8 billion? Did you buy yinson?

When you last analyzed ql, did you know it would sign a 2016 family Mart 300 store franchise agreement? Or that it would double egg production overseas in Indonesia and Philippines? Obviously I didn't.
Anyone who told you they knew would be lying, because even the management did not.

But what I did differently than you and many gurus, was staying invested.

WHY SELL SOMETHING THAT HAS GONE UP, JUST BECAUSE IT HAS GONE UP?

When you notice a certain ability in a company to perform, you stick around to see what happens, see if it was just luck, or whether they are able to meet the challenges. If you say a simple egg company like lhi is not worth pe60, I totally agree. But a ql? They have shown the ability to enter new industries and dominate. Not only dominate, while many companies are losing money, their vertical integration has allowed them to profit while others show losses.

In any case, you have written many great stories yourself. However you only show half the picture, of what you think people should do. How about the other half? ( Which many gurus suddenly go quiet and shy away from saying)

HOW HAVE YOU IMPLEMENTED YOUR OPEN STRATEGIES SO FAR AND WHAT AE YOUR LONG TERM RESULTS?

If possible, I would like see your 10 years record of your portfolio holdings, date of purchase, date of selling, results.

This is to hear great stories from you.

1. How you value stocks by looking at what you bought when you bought it.
2. What you did when the stocks went up. Did you sell too fast?
3. How you reacted when the stock pick went down. Did you average down? Or did you cut loss too fast?
4. What was the performance of the overall market, and how you performed versus the market at the time.

Yes, I would like to read the annual report and letter of Mr kcchongz, who seems to know so much like warren buffet, does classes and writes ebooks.

But no sifu or guru teaches by example like warren or charlie.

Or are you one of those who practice,

DO AS I SAY, NOT AS I DO?

There are 2 very interesting facts here.

1. How to identify wonderful companies.
2. What price should one pay for them.

The problem is usually hindsight. In actuality, most people identify a quality company only after it has overperformed and hit targets. Then we say oh yes public bank is a quality company, and topglove is a quality company. But rarely do individuals buy it when it was a good company becoming into a quality one.
The fact of the matter is: no one ever buys a wonderful company. What everyone usually does is start with a potentially good company, and sit along for the ride.

As for price: no one can say a valuation is too rich or too poor for a wonderful company. Just because a company has high PE does not make it a bad deal, if it continues to hit it's targets and milestones.

I remember kcchongz saying that he noticed ql during one of his seminars. He did not buy it then. Last year I remember everyone saying ql was overpriced at pe50 and should sold. Then as revenue and earnings hit all time highs the share price increased by 25%. Now it is pe60+.

Is this overpriced? If using past data and metrics it is. But if the earnings double, you would only be paying pe25+ in terms of future earnings ( assuming you have a crystal ball).

In absence of a crystal ball, I use the boxer analogy. A young boxer who trains everyday, fights everyday gains a certain reputation, a certain confidence. You can't tell how he will perform, but the diet, the roadwork, the management. As he goes to the fight, you hold your breath and wait for the results. When he wins, you can breath a sigh of relief and put more betting money in him. You check his training schedule. What belt he is going for, in which country. If he is fighting against the best fighters, it a sure won battle. Each time he wins, you get more confidence because of his history of winnings and the opponents that he will face. Each time he loses, you check and see if he lost because he was drinking or partying, or if he has the will to retain and improve his body. By backing the right boxer slowly as he grows, you will find yourself supporting a world champion.

I always find the concept of dropping a world champion just because he has won a belt silly, and picking a new one that hasn't won one just because he COULD even sillier.

But putting all your money on the young boxer that won his first fight every sillier, just because he won a fight and the world doesn't know his name yet doesn't mean you should go all in on him.

In other words, buying just because nta is high or PE is low is a recipe for distaster. Investing is a far more complicated sport than reducing it to a few standard metrics.

It doesn't matter who or where they come from. The biggest fraud affecting the Malaysian people is jho low, a Malaysian.

For me, in valuation, I keep a valuation metric that is simple and easy to use that it becomes subconscious. You should use it as well for every deal in life, not only in stocks, but general valuation of a proposal.

How to think like a crook.
1. Appeal to their greed.
2. Appeal to the fear.
3. Hide important info.
4. Make the business as complicated as possible.

For me, making money is usually a very straightforward deal that is easy to understand. So when one of those 4 criteria come up my subconscious gets worried, and if any combination come up or all 4? I just walk away, even if the business might actually be real.

Sometimes you have to just walk away.

The frauds usually have a recurrent theme.

1. Greed: a high assets base ( but low valuation), like buying a BMW for only 10,000. Or a business with 50% growing margins ( in an industry where the average is 15%), or high dividend or 10%, or a billion in cash in bank but entire company value is 200 million. Basically anything that sounds too good to be true.

2. Fear: stock had run up in price, and you fear losing out so chase further. If you don't buy now in the next ten minutes the offer disappears forever. Never be cornered to make immediate decisions. It's ok to make less, and buy in bunches after reading the quarterly report, trade journal, market review, instead of buying everything in one go. It is important to learn the difference between a temporary dip in profits and a permanent dip in profits.

3. Read the fine print. If a company promises 20% a month in gains but doesn't reveal exactly how they do it, stay away. If every company takes 50% deposit to build shoes, then collects the rest before delivery, you have to wonder why xinquan could have sold 3.6 million shoes without collecting full payment. Impairments. Risky deals. How Bernie Madoff could make 10+% growth consistently like clockwork for decades, even through crises and good years.

4. A company that has a lot of subsidiaries, where the accountants themselves get lost in the shuffle. Mark to market accounting, bizarre investments like wework ( long term lease from owner, short term lease to tenants), welife, wegrow which tried to brand everything as a tech company. Things that you don't understand but sounds amazing had nothing to do with making money.

Instead of complaining when you step on shit, it is usually more efficient to avoid stepping on shit in the first place.

>>>>>>>>>

pjseow Remember Transmile and Megan media ? The CEO s were from Malaysia and Singapore. What about ENRON , an American company who cheated on its shareholders life savings? What about the money game companies like JJPTR, MBI,GENEVA etc .These are Malaysian companies. While there are ugly Chinese, there are also ugly Americans and Ugly Malaysians.
19/01/2020 12:25 AM

When you have buybacks, contract wins, successful handover and a perpetual bond guarantee, that is a recipe for success.

After manny years, I realized going to AGM serves very little purpose which can be solved by reading annual report and fact checking info from third parties.

1. If you have to attend AGM to get info it means there is something that you distrust about management that is not revealed clearly in the annual reports.

2. If the management is not doing a good job, why but the stock in the first place.

Icon8888 has no way one knowing when stocks are fundamentally cheap. You see, he bought lctitan at 4.15.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-01-30-story-h1457006496-_Icon_LC_Titan_Price_Collapse_Shaken_Shareholders_and_Contrarians_Scram.jsp

And when pressed about it he says he cut loss and sold quickly.

But when he buys stocks with one hand behind the wheel and another frantically pressing the buy option on his handphone, you will know that he really doesn't have a plan, but a series of lucky guesses.

Not to mention he is super emotional guy. Emotional people do not make good investors. Down a bit they say bring you to Holland. Up a bit they shake their waggly tail

>>>>>>>
Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 20, 2020 9:08 AM | Report Abuse

I have been through worse thing in this forum. People cursed my deceased mother and said wanted to fxxk

I am used to being cursed

By people like you

So, go ahead to hate me


>>>>>>>

It is impossible to buy at the bottom. Based on my experience, 9 out of 10 times, stock price will continue to drop after you take position. However, if your judgment is correct, it will ultimately rebound. (of course, the opposite is true. If you are wrong, you will go to Holland)
>>>>>

Posted by TA_trader > Feb 20, 2020 10:37 AM | Report Abuse

Icon please share how you derived your conclusion on abmb being fundamentally cheap?

Raider raider.... After so many years you still don't understand what is meant by assets? If you ever learn anything, learn that there are many different types of assets, otherwise you will keep falling into the same trap forever.

If you only use level one thinking then you should buy all the property stocks, TALAMT, ASIAPAC, bjland, etc those companies. Asiapac is a good deal right? Selling for 13 send today with nta more than 1 ringgit?

But the answer is simple: there are many different types of assets, just as the earnings return on assets and equities employed play a huge difference in valuation.

It is pointless to shout insas is worth rm3.50, sapura is worth 0.86 per share, ASIAPAC is worth rm1 if you do it without context of the quality of the asset.

Why do people spend so much money to chase dlady? A company that has a net asset of RM 2.3 is about to produce rm1.65 in net earnings. Imagine how efficient that is. In comparison, a company like sape with 13 billion in "assets", last year has a asset value of 0.86 per share, but made you a loss of 2 ringgit.

Why is context important? It gives you a story of impairments. What is the real value of the assets, and how much in actuality you can monetize it. It answers the question why TALAMT, ASIAPAC, insas, sapura seem to be stuck for such a long time, while other stocks keep going up and up.

In the end all that matters is earnings per share, how much debt is being raised to fetch those earnings, how efficient the assets are in growing earnings, and how much you the shareholder is getting from your ownership of shares ( buybacks, dividends, etc)

If you want to keep on using NTA as your investment metric, at least do it properly and put it in the context of earnings return on assets employed, ROE, and assets to earnings growth.

In either case, if you need to chase, chase future earnings growth, instead of buying NTA accounting companies.

Else, just dump all your money into those developer companies. They have all the cheap assets you can ever want ( empty unsold condo which you have to pay loan and interest every year).

In August 19 stoneraider said insas go to 90 cent.
In January 20 stoneraider said insas go to rm1.
Now in April 2020, stoneraider say insas can go to 3.50????

Who is giving false information here?

>>>>>>>>>

AFTER 2 MTHS, WITH LONGEVITY OF INVESTMENT, IT CAN ATTAIN THE TARGET OF RM 3.50 A RESULT U CAN BE PROUD & CAN TELL YOUR CHILDREN OR YOUR GRAND CHILDREN YOUR SUCCESSFUL FORAY INTO AN UNDERVALUE MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT LOH....!!

Ok good for you! Hope everything goes well. For me I'm not looking for huge profits with huge volatility. I prefer growing consistently year by year with a company that has a high margin of safety, margin of safety in this case meaning chance of long term earnings hit is low.

Armchair analysts just talk nonsense from computers and buy with one hand behind the wheel and the other frantically pressing buy button on the phone.

Real investors go down to Penang to enjoy prawn mee and visit the factories to get a better understanding of the companies before deciding whether or not to buy and sell.

FYI, my remark was a sarcasm because someone lumped all earnings under semiconductor equipment.

>>>>>>>>>>>

Philip (Can I advise you?) I totally did not know they did semiconductor business. All this while when i visited their plant in penang I only thought they did fabrication of the hard disk drive pins and metal spring miniature steel fabs.

which part of semiconductors do they produce?
23/10/2019 7:27 PM

Since you know what you are talking, where does it come from? Like some Jokers who buy lctitan at high price with one hand behind the wheel. Unlike some who don't even bother understanding a company and just buy first think later, I try to understand the business first. Buy the ctos reports, get the industry journals.

FABRICATION OF PRECISION TOOLS AND MACHINERY PARTS AND MANUFACTURE OF AIRCRAFT AND OTHER EQUIPMENT PARTS, SPARES, COMPONENTS AND PRECISION ENGINEERING PARTS

https://www.ctoscredit.com.my/business/SAM-PRECISION-%28M%29-SDN-BHD-0043230K

I try to understand what it is that Sam precision, Sam tooling, Sam technologies what exactly that they do. Last year when Sam was brought to my attention by another investor, I went to Penang to have a visit. Their main locations are in Penang and Thailand. Aerospace in Singapore and Penang. With their latest Bukit minyak facility.

Like some idiot reply,
"Sam Engineering derived a significant amount of profit from semiconductor equipment manufacturing. " Funnily enough she lump everything under semiconductor equipment manufacturing.

If you go through the breakdown of companies revenue and earnings ( I did) from the ctos reports ( only a few ringgit per report), you can see how the breakdown of earnings come from their subsidiaries.


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-10-21-story231104-_Icon_Sam_Engineering_An_Overlooked_Semicon_Play.jsp this is the article where someone lumped all earnings as semiconductor equipment manufacturing.

You have Sam precision, Sam tooling, Sam precision Thailand and meerkat.

You will quickly notice they are a die and jig manufacturer ( which coincides with their speciality in aerospace CNC and 5axis precision cutting).

Do you think they are a semiconductor OSAT maker on the scale of inari? No, they supply precision equipment to them.

They do tooling and jigs for globetronics in Penang (LED), they supply equipment and support to ASE electronics. They supply obviously to manufacturer of HDD and SSD ( Thailand). I mean come on, they are a member of the fmm in Penang. So many ways to scuttlebutt and get info on what exactly they do and what are the limits of their production capacity. Why lie and lump all under semiconductor equipment manufacturing?

But lumping everything into one and calling it semiconductor equipment manufacturing, that is brilliant.

As for Holland in Pchem, it remains to be seen. My timeline is different from yours. If you bought Sam at 8.5 and saw the price today you will say Holland. But those who bought PCHEM with a 3-5 year view and bought rm6 million of shares during discount day at 6.2? Come back to me next year when PIC is in full production, if the earnings and revenues drop then, then you can say whatever you want.

Until then, YOU do not know what you are talking.


>>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 19, 2020 6:43 AM | Report Abuse

To those who claimed SAM non aerospace business is mainly from HDD, you don’t know what you talking

What does Corona virus have to do with the long term prospects of Sam? Similar to sars, I predict the virus is contained and will disappear by June,

I concur. And I think this is excellent 2nd level thinking.

>>>>>>>>>>>


I think SAM would continue to grow, albeit at a much slower pace, as I trust this Singaporean management team.

So I shall adjust your portfolio sell everything and concentrate on netx only right? Please advise when you are selling and buying more thank you.

Dutch Lady Milk Industries Bhd
KLSE: DLADY
43.36 MYR +0.86 (2.02%)
18 Feb, 5:00 pm MYT

NetX Holdings Bhd
KLSE: NETX
0.015 MYR −0.0050 (25.00%)
18 Feb, 5:00 pm MYT

The choice to invest is yours and yours alone.

I will stop posting at this thread. Good luck all.


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > Feb 18, 2020 5:08 PM | Report Abuse

Yes ah

I will sell all others and wait at 1.5 sen then

I thought you were a transparent referee? How come can simply add words that were not in my posting? If you are really a referee, if you cannot find any post that say I bought at 10 and promote more at 10 ( highest Pchem price was 9.60), I expect you to apologize. I have indeed bought more shares ( rm6 million at 6.2-6.3) and it is listed in my portfolio.

Do you have any proof I bought and promoted at 10?


>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by dragonslayer > Feb 18, 2020 5:29 PM | Report Abuse

philips also tukang tilik at PChem mah.....tilik from Rm10...sampai..RM6 also...what a kaki lima tukang tilik....all also tukang tilik...only...different standard only...dun laugh lah;;;;

I never buy local companies that has their main exposure in other countries, as I cannot monitor or scuttlebutt as well.

For example,

Latitude tree
Xinquan
China stationary
Maxwell international
Kstar sports

There is just too many variables. At least here I can monitor, visit gkent office. See their projects. Understand the progress.

For kpower, there is too many unknowable items, to play 2 year.

I prefer gkent with its guaranteed orderbook.

>>>>>>>>>>

want to play 2 years money? then scib abd Kpower
18/02/2020 5:18 PM

I believe there will be a price pop in 2022 when mrt2 handover and full collection. There is also a big pop in 2023 when Honeywell manufacturing full transfer to GKENT. And 2024 lrt3 full handover will have a bug dividend.

In the short term, your guess is as good as mine.

But in the long term, a well managed company with cash and history of profitability will not let you down.

>>>>>>>>>>

RainT when price can touch RM2?
18/02/2020 2:25 PM

I couldn't have said better myself.

>>>>>>>>>>>
While we understand 50x PE may appear to be a rich valuation, given the size of QL, growth prospects highlighted above and lack of alternative investment options of this magnitude in the consumer sector, we feel this is justified.

Its funny how analysts are either very optimistic or very negative based on past info, but make funny assumptions into the future. Well, the thing is, these are all very achievable and simple goals to reach, low hanging fruit which have a low chance of failure, as the initial push and risk outlay has been done years ago. Now it is just a case of expanding on all cylinders and moving forward.

I believe QL will get 2 billion in revenue every quarter from organic expansion, with a 5% net earnings or 100 million a quarter in earnings in a few years.

When that happens, the next thing on the list is to start or buy over a growing franchise (i hope it is in& out burger), and expand in south east asia to become the next big thing here and dethrone cp.food.

>>>>>>>>>>>>

QL Resources - Consumer juggernaut deserves a premium PE
Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Tue, 4 Feb 2020, 5:29 PM

We met with QL management and came away feeling positive on the group’s prospects going forward. Forecasts remain unchanged. We raise our TP from RM6.56 to RM8.20 based on a higher PE multiple of 50x (+1SD above its 5 year average PE) from 40x previously. While we understand 50x PE may appear to be a rich valuation, given the size of QL, growth prospects and lack of alternative investment options of this magnitude in the consumer sector, we feel this is justified.

We met with QL management and came away feeling positive on the group’s prospects going forward.

Integrated Livestock Farming (ILF). QL intends to increase egg production capacities in Indonesia (to 1.4m from 0.85m) and Vietnam (to 1.8m from 0.85m) over the next four years. We expect egg consumptions in Indonesia and Vietnam continue to increase as both countries become increasingly wealthy (egg consumption in Indonesia increased from 60 eggs per person p.a. in 2011 to 90 currently). Note that in Malaysia, egg consumption tops 300 per person p.a. currently. We are positive on these growth ventures as we are confident there is still room for growth in consumption for Indonesia and Vietnam. As QL is already a large poultry player, we see little execution risk in these ventures. Note that currently, QL already produce approximately 5.7m eggs per day (4m of these in Malaysia).

Marine Processing Manufacturing (MPM). QL’s fish ball and surimi processing remain dependent on weather conditions, which effect volume of fish catches. In order to mitigate this risk, QL have ventured into aquaculture production (which involves farming of fish, prawns etc. under controlled conditions). QL intends to increase production capacity from 2,000MT currently to 6,000MT p.a. in the next four years. We understand aquaculture products are sold to Australia, China and Japan markets.

Palm Oil Activities (POA). Surging CPO price bodes well for QL’s plantation division. CPO price surged 45% since mid-2019 to ~RM2,850/mt currently. HLIB expects CPO to average RM2,550/mt in FY20 (+13.5% YoY). QL’s plantation division is well positioned to take advantage of the high price, as 85% of their planted trees are in their prime fruiting age.

Family Mart venture. QL currently has ~170 operational outlets, with plans to open a further 80 stores in FY20. We expect new outlets in Klang Valley and sub-urban areas in addition to further locations in Johor Bahru, Melaka and Negeri Sembilan. They intend to have 300 operational outlets by FY22. We are very positive on the group’s venture into the convenience store business as the profitability of stores has far exceeded our expectations due to (i) higher average ticket amount; (ii) higher average customer count; and (iii) skewed sales mix toward fresh food. QL shared that the capex requirement for each store averages RM400k. We are very positive on the group’s Family Mart venture as our internal calculations indicate Family Mart has already turned profitable in under 3 years, which was previously expected to take 7 years.

Forecast. Unchanged.

Upgrade to HOLD. We like QL for its diversified revenue streams, seasoned management team and decent growth prospects. We raise our TP from RM6.56 to

RM8.20 based on a higher PE multiple of 50x (+1SD above its 5 year average PE) from 40x previously. While we understand 50x PE may appear to be a rich valuation, given the size of QL, growth prospects highlighted above and lack of alternative investment options of this magnitude in the consumer sector, we feel this is justified.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 4 Feb 2020

3iii is making up for it by warning investors on NETX red flags.

Gkent has AWARD letter and just submitted 40% progress claim for lrt3 for 11 billion, not to mention mrt2 claim for 1 billion to order track cars, as well as final claim for hospitalsa to hand over this year. Got revenue, got earnings, got 200 million cash. As well as 25 million of share buybacks this past year.

Which is more than I can say for Calvin NETX. No award letter. 33k revenue. Never made money. Esos given for losing money at market price. Private placement. Billions of shares outstanding. The only reason why NETX can't go lower is because it is already a super penny stock fuelled by speculation. Once the speculation dies down, NETX will kaput.

No IMDB boss no worries, LGE award new contract to gkent for LRT3. Last time 8 billion project. Then increase capacity to 32 billion. Now revamped back to original design but give extra 2 billion. Share a bit with LGE party everyone happy happy.

Any news for NETX award letter yet?

>>>>>>>>>

calvintaneng Gkent

Gk?

Going kaput as IMDb boss not around anymore
17/02/2020 4:33 PM