Of course I did, at 6.30.

Oh gosh using made up figures again, that is the problem you had with hengyuan and petronm. And not to mention serba dinamik. Your net earnings 3Q is 140,160,000 thereabouts. If you want to make up numbers from the air line serba dinamik case again, then it is a total waste of time, just like you say pe50 ql is at 6.7 overpriced, gkent only 1 billion in revenue from lrt3 etc.

In that case, something fishy about the way you calculate.

Good day and have fun doing your magic math.

Choivo trying to be another troll? Why don't you stick to your stock analysis, instead of eating time in coldish comments. Oh wait, none of your investment thesis ever seen to come true.

Ok now about your 200 million owners earnings for petronm. If it doesn't come true like you said it will in 2019( one quarter left to go), I want you to write in your articles a preface, " I am usually wrong in my analysis, and take my article with a grain of salt as I have no long term earnings results to back my writing".

Deal?

Waste of time replying when all replies are deleted by uses who don't want to read financial reports.

WEIDA just received LoA for nfcp1 for construction of towers in Sabah. What did netx get? Zero. Nada. Nothing.

Unchanged? Of course not. No announcement by netx of getting nfcp1.

No hope. No news. But guess what, calvintaneng big cheerleader promoting something that netx is not even promoting.

Too bad.

This kind of lansi remarks, and he sees fit for a kettle to call the pot black.

Who is the real lansi guy here.

And the funniest thing, the moment he wrote his ewint articleb on adding more, the stock crashed. Within weeks.

Unlike my yinson article, my stoneco article, my pphb article, and my ql article. They keep going up and up, just like pchem will recover when pengerang goes full bore and they realize coronavirus will not affect pchem business in the long run, and gkent will gain billions of revenue from lrt3.

But too bad, cyberbullies are too intent on insulting others that they don't have time to learn anything.


>>>>>>


Icon8888 Bjland is crap lah

After insas it is another retard stock for ass Lee
17/12/2019 10:22 PM


Feb 2, 2020 2:58 PM | Report Abuse

Just ignore ks55

Negative and cynical

Hopeless fellow

Feb 2, 2020 1:54 PM | Report Abuse

Not that I don’t dare to tell exact affin cost, I just can’t remember exactly what price I bought because I have bought and sold few times (but around 220)

Didn’t mean to lie about few cents

Sochai


Nov 10, 2019 11:07 AM | Report Abuse

Make money you dance and you laugh

Lost money cry mum cry dad curse people

Low class stock for Low class Herbert


Who is the lansi girl in reality?

Piss off.

In fact, icon8888 buys just as much stocks as Calvin tan promotes, and gambles even more. But his emotional quotient even worse than Calvin tan when his stocks not doing well.

Icon8888, i3lurker, if my ending comments on my articles make you feel small, then I apologise and shall remove my offending " I hope you learn something new today" from my articles. In fact I will stop writing new articles to make you feel less small.

But then, can you stop your cyber bullying tactics?

Insulting new investors who disagree with you as sorchai, stupid, no brains, bloody idiots etc( look at your own comments).

Even more lansi is buying stocks with one hand behind the wheel, and saying other people are lansi.

I will continue to keep my investment portfolio, so you can see if my investment are fake or true compared to all the articles written by everyone on this forum

The purpose of this forum is to obtain and share knowledge.

So far, you are neither.

Icon8888 I am finally convinced you are a small heart investor who has never seen or home through a stock market crisis before.

If anything all I can tell you is, be patient. Be a clear investor unencumbered by fear and worry and emotions. If you decide to buy something, be clear on what you buy instead of gambling and diving yourself into a corner by buying warrants with a time value ( stockraider on his insas warrant escapade should give you enough understanding that you cannot time a trade war or a coronavirus).
All I can tell you is: in the long run, excellent companies with a high return of equity and growth will always outdo expectations.

Time is the friend of the wonderful company, and the enemy of the average one.

I don't know how much you have lost gambling on stocks, but I wish you the best, and I hope your recover your losses.

If anything stick to stocks that let you sleep well at night.

As for lansi, >>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 2, 2020 1:48 PM | Report Abuse

I snubbed fire hawk few months back, didn’t even scold or Attack him, and he remember until now

Such a small heart

Choivo I find you a waste of time with your sarcasm.

How about this? I am willing to bet that your petronm will not hit 200 million in earnings for this year. As I am sure that you don't know anything about your analysis on petronm, I am willing to give you a heads up.

If I am wrong I will write whatever you want me to write. I will give you my revised honest intrinsic valuation for ql.

If you are wrong and petronm does not hit 200m in earnings this year, you will write whatever I ask you to write.

Deal?

Firstly, i thought you can't tell the future, how come now become expert?

Secondly, if you take my words out of context, remember that my exact words were I hope you learn something new today, and I hope you learned something new every day ( which is in my articles). What this is mean to contribute is to let investors to always have open mind to learn something new and not a closed mind unlike some fake engineers and ex bankers I know.

Sadly, something icon8888 and choivo have failed to absorb or understand at all.

They view pe50 as bad, gambling as good, and buying stocks with one hand behind the wheel as excellent.

FYI, my margin contribution now is below 6 million, of my total investment portfolio. By next quarter results of pchem and gkent I am willing and able to double up to 12 million without much worry.

But sadly, simple minds who buy on instinct instead of business earnings will forever be caught by fear and worry.

For those who have a good grasp of valuation, they will quickly realized that with the assets and business capability of pchem, after increasing the production by 3.3 mpta and adding new businesses in aromatics, and specially chemicals and reducing costs from aramco supply, you will see 6 billion of earnings ( with 3 billion in dividends) every year starting from 2022.

But trolls will be trolls. I will continue to buy at these low prices if the long term business outlook does not change, and stay away from those who write articles about buying stocks with one hand behind the wheel.



>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 3, 2020 9:06 AM | Report Abuse

whoever that doesn't sell now will be trapped for another 5 years

Stockraider your sapura energy you are so confident go up .5 cent every day I still remember even more rm3 , your bjland vt claims, your hengyuan rm35, so many of your claims already proven to be bad deals. Your stock competition put 30% in sape did you put real money inside too? Today value 24 cents. For me I have no worries to buy more during this discount period because pangerang has already completed and started minimum production run last week, and fill production run by end of the year. The trade war and coronavirus is just something that will scare investors in the short run. When confidence returns and earnings of pchem goes up, I will just keep quiet and let you fill yourself with jealousy that you didn't buy when stocks were cheap and complain when stocks reach pe50.

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Later on sure turn around and say I sold at a big profit. Sure buddy.


>>>>>>>>>>


Icon8888 I didn’t sell anything
12/12/2019 5:06 PM

The fraud is more than sweating, he is going around attacking everyone and going sorchai sorchai. It is as if this is his first time investing and hitting a crisis. Panicked + complains + scolding everyone around him. I don't know how he even makes money in the stock market.

Really pity investors like him. Make a little bit of money the head go too big. Then when market hours down he starts eating his children.

Pathetic.

>>>>>>

gemfinder Icon888 now sweating
01/02/2020 4:23 PM

Suddenly now a super expert. Sure thing buddy. Whatever you say. You probably don't even know how much you will be making from pchem next quarter. Oversupply? Do you even know how much stocks in inventory and orders for pchem? Did you check?

Then answer me this: did they sell all of their inventory? It is the drop due to their inability to produce more due to scheduled turnarounds and production drop by 22% for the quarter.

Oversupply in the market is global. But local market is still dominated by pchem which has cheap supply, the biggest plant in the region with location and pricing control, and of course davinci which is into skincare and aromatics. Not to mention urea which is shortage right now due to Malaysia and Indonesia biggest Palm oil producer in the world.

Pchem is diverse, it's business more than just olefins.

This year is a discount year due to trade war and virus ( which is temporary effects on pchem), so when the earnings come out and confidence increases, the discounts will become bigger earnings.

But now you suddenly can become an expert on pchem? Wow icon8888, you so smart thinking petrochemical only means plastics.

My advice? Stick to shit you know, instead of betting on everything.

Luckily you sold your lctitan. At least when the stock recovers, you don't get to tell everyone I told you so.

Just stop buying stocks with one hand behind the wheel. That is real arrogance.

>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 2, 2020 3:12 PM | Report Abuse

Fertiliser is more resilient

But only 40% contribution

Remaining 60% are petrochemical affected by oversupply

The stock will underperform next few years

Sure.... Now say sell, so you can say whatever you want. How much is it this time. 220? 230? 240?

Really, lousy investor like you should stop commenting so much or writing your fake articles. Everything you say is full of fakery. Buy comment, cut loss don't comment.

Fake engineer, fake Banker. Sometimes buy 220, then when pressed say maybe bought 230, 240. Who knows?

For someone who buys stocks with one hand behind the wheel, can you hope for honesty?

At least I am honest and I show if I buy or sell.

As for not daring to make a noise, you can see my online portfolio to see if I increased my exposure or reduced it.

Unlike you anything also can say. Then armada go up say you bought. Then when armada go down you say you sold.

Then say you bought affin at 220. But when pressed you don't even know if you bought it at 230 or 240. Probably 2.60 who knows.

Piss off you fake investor.

I'm tired of even entertaining your fake existence.

You talk and act like as if this is your first market drop.

Maybe you still need to work at your overtime join to pay for your losses.

It's alright to be upset when your stocks don't do well. But if you don't have the patience and balls for long term investing, why keep attacking those who do?

Maybe you really are an ex Banker. You act like one. Small minded. Penny wise and pound foolish.

Oh no Icon8888 caught lying through his teeth about his purchase.

I wonder if he will admit his position on lctitan

Calvin tan for your own sake please understand this 100 times. You assume netx will get nfcp. Any guaranteed ordered? Any Loa? And Mou? None. This is already one huge extrapolation of a company with 17 staff, consistent losses and inability to make any form of profits.

Secondly, even if they do get any it will definitely not be as a main contractor, but as a sub sub contractor ( not in NFC tenderer list).

Even with 1 billion in orders, do you think with their management capability thus far so you think they will be able to earn money,

If you want to extrapolate, then do it properly instead of believing what you will.

No orders, assume got nfcp orders.
No profits, assume got nfcp profits.

Funny.

Buy netx? The last time Dutch lady lost money was..... Never.

Latest qr netx lost 7 million. 17 staff company only make 33 thousand and lost 7 million.

Why are you trying to get everyone to follow you into a loss making business Calvin? Every quarter losing money....

This year Dutch lady will still make 100 million. Can buy a netx every year to lose money on if they wanted to.

If Dutch lady went lower I would happily buy it.

If you gave me netx for free, I wouldn't waste my time.

If I could predict the future then I would be the best investor in the world. All I can do is buy pchem below intrinsic value, so I bought at 8.15, I bought at 7, I bought at 6.64, I'm waiting until next quarter results to buy pchem at 5. Any other way and I would be lying or trying to do something that cannot be done.

But the last time pchem was below 6 was 5 years ago, and it definitely did not earn as much with the same assets or samur.

That is why I can keep buying pchem even lower and lower.

Can you say the same about your 50% drop into lctitan? How about your armada? Drop so bad while yinson and ql steady as she goes.

I sleep well at night. You obviously don't .

As usual icon8888 knows even better, that's why he bought lctitan at even higher price and with one hand at the wheel. But unhappy his lctitan doing so bad now need to justify his self ego by taking about others.

I hope nothing goes wrong with AirAsia, as I feel it's existence is one of the core reasons for tourism herewith in south east Asia.

Malaysia airlines has cost Malaysia enough.

Choivo I find you a waste of time.

How about this? I am willing to bet that your petronm will not hit 200 million in earnings for this year. As I am sure that you don't know anything about your analysis on petronm, I am willing to give you a heads up.

If I am wrong I will write whatever you want me to write. I will give you my revised honest intrinsic valuation for ql.

If you are wrong and petronm does not hit 200m in earnings this year, you will write whatever I ask you to write.

Deal?

I once read your investment thesis on symlife, where you appeared so confident on your mid term and long term targets. But the analysis was so extrapolated I couldn't believe it. Then I read the analysis of SMRT where you extrapolated an entire investment thesis on one quarter of returns ( which soon became a loss of 12 million in the latest quarter). I did like your analysis on mhb, but you were so far off the mark where your prediction was 1 year late, and the crash then happened faster than anyone could expect.

I do like your articles though, it is written with wonderful prose and execution. But I worry about your real returns versus analysis. I think you will do far far better if you left the microcap space and started analysing companies with stronger financials instead of aiming for that home run tags to riches company.

It is more efficient to compound 15% a year for 5 years instead of big win and big losses throughout your investing period.

I wish you the best young man, and keep writing!

Icon8888, stockraider, I will say this one last time because it is getting irritating and stupid.

If you want to follow my analysis, follow it all the way. Not halfway and then complain like a little girl.

I bought GKENT for lrt3 and mrt2 earnings. So if you want to complain at least look to 2022 for mrt2 and 2024 for lrt3 because that is the timeline of investment. Not warrants and gambling that you are so fond of.

I bought PCHEM for IPIC earnings, which will start up this year, and only full run production in beginning of 2021.

I don't buy something to get earnings this year short term. But I buy it with multi year expectations. If you want to discuss my returns for 2019-2020, why not discuss my returns for ql? Pe50 but 20% increase, yinson, 50%, topglove 30%, stoneco,100+%, pphb, 100%.

I know you are very stressed out by the volatility of your stock process and the market in the short term.

But this is getting irritating. If you cannot relax and wait for earnings to justify your investments and look only at stock prices to justify your results, then you should not be putting money into the stock market in the first place.

So shut up, sit down and have a drink of coffee and shut the fuck up.

And stop buying stocks with one hand on the driving wheel or gambling with warrants that put a time value on your stock investment.

Noleh, where got no revenue! 33k is a lot of money! I was earning only 25k a month as a senior project manager before I retired. It is definitely a big sum.

Of course, I don't think 33k can pay all the 17 staff in NETX hq, and the directors at the office.

At the very least

Office rental, electricity and AC = 10k x 3 months.
Employee salary = 2k x17 = 35 k X 3 months.
Entertainment, KTV, golf membership etc = 13k X 3 months.
We are looking at least 70k a month on expenses.
What are they doing at the office these staff... Sleeping on the job?

Calvin should cough up 33 million (10m sgd, cheap for billionaire like you who always chun chun call) to buy 51% of NETX, kick out the management and go for those NFCP tenders.

Price 3iii and his foolish remarks wrong?

Excellent results for netx! Only 7 million losses, which means they can only go up! By three next quarters definitely will be 7 million in earnings!

A revenue of 33k is no problem as it is only half the dividend I received from gkent this year. Once the business improves and more revenue is recognized from 50 billion of NFCP tenders, netx will definitely some like the brightest star in Bursa.

Time to double the investment and increase the exposure to NETX before it is too late.

Money is coming SOON!!!!

Huat huat huat arrrr!!!

Yes, many companies do share buyback when the price is high, or conserve cash during bad times. For gkent to do cash buyback and dividends during trying times show them either doing something funny ( which I find hard to believe when there is no esos, warrants, private placements or debt raising), or good management doing the prudent thing for investors by buying back shares at low prices, getting big orders 12 billion orderbook versus 487 market cap, and having a good cash level with no debt. Why worry much?

When the entire Bursa market is becoming irrational due to China trade war and China Wuhan virus, it becomes even more important to know what businesses have a structural problem and what businesses are just having a temporary discount day.

Nothing odd here. Your long term returns reflect your investing acumen. Rather than being an ass, just compare your 10 year investment returns with your investing principle, the docks that you bought, the stocks you thought were good but didn't buy, and the stocks that others bought but you thought were not good. No use giving a million analysis if your investing returns are not there.

I think I will stop replying your messages, as I find you making no sense whatsoever, and the results shows.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 31, 2020 10:34 AM | Report Abuse

Phillip,

Not trying to be an ass. I'm being sincere with this comment here.

But that article actually made me want to buy more. Really odd right.

You still have hospital not yet complete 70% 2020 hand over endokrin and 2021 the other hospital. MRT2 1 billion 2022 handover, 2024 handover lrt3 5.7b. I don't believe they can only do 40 million a year earnings for the next 5 years with this kind of orderbook, and share buyback only increases long term shareholder profit.

Bye bye chickywawa. Last 3 days 800k shares off the market into treasury. How many companies doing aggressive buyback of 25 million last year, 5% of market cap, with dividends every year and a 50% earnings payment, retained earnings and no record of losses in the past few years. If this kind of company is still a bad deal to invest in I don't know what kind of companies will make you invest in the market. And a 11.4 lrt3 and 1b mrt2 orderbook by Malaysian government on the books.

Current progress 41 percent of entire package, gkent claim will come in at 70% completeness for m&e

http://www.georgekent.net/projects-reference/

It is package ssy2014. The NSC for track rail systems is GKENT. The entire package was reduced by 3.4 billion which is not affecting gkent tender won which is 1 billion to be delivered in 2022.

I see. So you believe that a company which earns 6% PDP from 31.65b if cancelled they would get a 4.2b payout? Meaning they would get a cancellation compensation far more then their agreed PDP contract? I find that hard to believe, especially since if the government can revise the prices of a contract value, they can also fix price a new contract to make it unprofitable for anyone taking it ( forcing them to reject the new deal and demand continuation of the old contract or compensate).

In any case, believe what you will. I choose to believe lrt3 is going to be profitable for GKENT. More importantly ( since I have actually been to their office and discussed technical design with their team previously), I choose to believe that their "inability" to grab new projects is more a case of them having too much on their plate already to swallow thus concentrating of successful completion first,( showing prudent management to complete ORDERBOOK of 11 billion LRT3 works, 1 billion mrt2 works, and water meter orders outstripping supply) rather than being on the "blacklist" of PH government contracts.

If you believe the price of gkent today reflects it's future earnings... I invite you to visit this forum 4 years from now when they hand over LRT3 and see how much the shares are with then. That is all I can say. At this point of time anyone can say whatever analysis they want. It is only the future will define whether or their analysis comes true.

Producers that sell the cheapest PE will win more market share.

You finally read this article on why I see lctitan long term future as dead. Other than this one-off gain, lctitan would have made a huge loss this quarter.

PCHEM on the other hand has the da Vinci acquisition, which will bring them the beauty and cosmetics market. They also have the fertilizer market in samur, which is a huge balancer of agriculture ( I learnt this from ql as one of their big purchasers). And they also have many different chemicals that are exclusively sold, thus the huge margins compared to lctitan and other peers.

And yes PIC will bring about great earnings growth once all the small time companies like lctitan are dead. Pangerang has so much integration with refineries and room for growth that you can sit tight and buy into the next 5-10 years without worry.

>>>>>>>>>

Choivo Capital https://medium.com/proof-of-value/plastic-prices-have-crashed-how-coul...
30/01/2020 3:03 PM

My total exposure with Maybank is my topglove and ql position. My margin into gkent is a small portion of my exposure. I could lose my entire position in GKENT and still not get margin call.

>>>>>>>>>
____________________________________________________________________

I remember you bought with margin facilities. Do you get margin call?
30/01/2020 12:07 PM

Hi malpac63, can you specify what compensation clause and hotter much does it amount to? Where did you get this news? As the were multiple other contractors that had the contracts cancelled by government with no compensation clause. Case in point: IJM.

>>>>>>>>>

malpac63 The LRT3 contract was initially cancelled by PH and LGE. However, after discovering the compensation cost from the cancellation was astronomical, they reawarded it back to Gkent/Mrcb with changes to it. If the compensation clause wasn't there, it'll be a different story altogether.
30/01/2020 12:25 PM

And a 250k share buy back at low prices is an excellent use of shareholder equity.

Hi master Yoda, I was also thinking that, however, if gkent was a umno counter, how did they get LRT3 from lim Guan eng? Thanks in advance.

So to simplify my intrinsic valuation of the business, I expect them to do:
2020-2024.

Revenue estimation:

Water meter: 40 million earnings a year
LRT3: 385 million earnings over 5 years (7% of 5.5 billion), 70 million a year
MRT2: 150 million earnings over 3 years (15% of 1 billion), 50 million a year.
Engineering:? If I told you they submitted a bid for NFCP package 1 with Ericsson would you be impressed? I can't confirm this, but if march comes round and this comes true I would be the first person to be happy, unlikely as it may sound. In any case, any company that goes from treatment plant contractor to sole water meter manufacturer in Malaysia to hospital contractor to wtp concession to rail contractor has to have a strong technical team. They will have a fighting chance unlike many contractors out there.
Discounting= 20%

Yearly earnings 128 million for the next 4 years, or 5 year outlook of 500 million in earnings from which I only need to pay 273 million today ( with 200 million in cash).

Am I buying it below intrinsic value today? Definitely. Do I think this investment better than PPHB? Definitely

But I suppose you already have a clever remark ready. Just recall that my 1 year investment proposals in QL, STONECO, TOPGLOV, PPHB, YINSON is already doing very well. And the results of PCHEM ( which is awaiting results from PIC contribution) and GKENT ( awaiting LRT3 contribution)
Is just a waiting game over the next few years.

But I digress, maybe your 5K thesis into rcecap is probably worth the analytical knowledge compared to my free and simple investment thesis that span decade.

If you don't know how to value companies that you don't understand, why are you even trying in the first place?

My advise, if you don't know how to value a company, start away from them and stick to what you know instead of buying everything...

>>>>>>>>>>
I only know how to value companies i understand, this one i don't.

But i'll give it a crack anyway.

Let me iterate one last time, as this is getting irritating.

The difference between PDP and fixed price contract is simply this. In PDP, the risk is borne by the government, as the project delivery partner works to make sure the project is done within costs, and he gets a portion from the contract size ( in this case 6%). In the fixed price contract, the tenderer has to bear the risk, and source out financing to complete the project ( hence the mrcb lawyer discussion). With regards to this issue of added risk, the contractor will then have to charge a higher fee to complete the financing and project costs. The usual fees gathered as a main contractor usually run between 10-12%, more if it is a design and build project.
Now, the lrt3 project has been redesigned, reduced in size and number of cars and stations. It has been awarded here:

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/11/05/mrcb-gkent-accepts-lrt3-contract-award-for-revised-sum/

So now, here are some facts and figures and where I look at the earnings of gkent in the next 4 years:

1. Light Rail Transit 3 (LRT3) completion 2024 - 11.4 billion ( assume 5.5 billion to gkent).
Conservatively, 5% of 5.5 billion is 275 million to split in the next 4 years, or 68 million a year earnings from this project. Guaranteed orderbook confirmed by LGE in Nov. I personally am expecting gkent to do 10% with the revision of new contractors ( bye bye IJM), new redesign and new package, meaning I think they can do around 500 million over the 4 year period.

2. C) MRT Sungai Buloh-Serdang-Putrajaya (SSP) Line - Work Package SSP-SY-2014
This is going to complete in July 2022, and is 41% complete. Gkent is in charge of the rail systems control ( the M&E portion always at the end, civil work comes first), and their contract of 1 billion is expected to give them 25% earnings, or 250 million which will kick in in 2020-2022. So the next 3 years will see them earning 250 million or roughly 70 million in earnings in the next few years.

3. press release george kent forms agreement with honeywell
www.georgekent.net › wp-content › uploads › 2019/07 › GK_July-2019

Technology transfer and water meter manufacturing with Honeywell. They are now going to produce the v100 and v110 water meters which will be exclusively sold under GKM brand in 26 new territories internationally and in Asia. The non digital water meters are doing 25 million in earnings a year. As they resell these back to elater at cheaper prices than Honeywell produces it in Europe, a complete meter solution reduces manufacturing costs and increases margins. I believe with this technology transfer they can boost earnings to 40 million a year in the next 5 years post teething problems in upgrading the factory. But don't take it from me, gkent management expects the business to double ( 50 million) in the mid term next few years. I remain conservative.

As for the digital water meters, from edge - While it is still at the pilot stage, as they are working with mobile operators in testing the transmission of data, we believe that should it take off, it would be a strong growth factor for its metering division. We anticipate the smart meters could potentially grow its metering revenue by a minimum of 50%, should GKENT is able to package its smart meters together with its existing products. FYI, e Selangor water board pilot tests are complete and showing very good responses, especially as the internet and national fiberization plans on the way. Roll out is already imminent with gkent the only local manufacturer of these smart water meters in the market ( no competition locally). If this takes off, we can look forward to 10 million in earnings yearly in the mid term.

4. Water treatment plants/ hospitals. As they have a successfully completed and handed over projects and are bidding for the new tenders under kklw/ JBALB, I wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a few more projects here and there in the mid term. But this is currently in backbench as their main concern now is to simply complete and handover lrt3 project successfully instead of hunting down more projects which they cannot complete.

>>>>>>>

PDP vs Turnkey
PDP basically Cost Plus Contract. Turnkey, is make it happen within the agreed price. Given a choice, which one will a contractor choose, and which one will be more lucrative? Of course PDP lah, free money mah.

Joon Chan, my advise is to not look at short term stick volatility as there is no way you can predict how the share price will work out in the short term. Trying to time the market will always be an exercise in futility. When I was young in the 80s I tried to time the market, it didn't work. I then tried to time the market in the 90s, it also ask didn't work. You may be too young to remember renong, aokam and alta vista, but my prognosis is always hindsight is perfect. But in reality, if you have been losing big money in a stock, it becomes harder to buy back when you sell it, or even to just buy more as it goes down. Trying to trade dips is just something all the sifus like to teach in their classes, but rarely do they have a solid long term portfolio which they are willing to show you.

What the bullshit is 6% of 1 billion over 4 years? What is that 1 billion?

I would say during good times, people become over optimistic on a business future, during bad times people become negative on a company future.

I'm more surprised and scared that my topglove jumped so much higher than I believed it would.

People overreact to many things, but this year its more than normal share.

War in middle East. Coronavirus. Stock market overheating.

I start to believe more and more than investing is more about emotions than analysis.
It becomes really hard to keep a level head of everyone around is running around screaming the sky is falling.

But I just keep asking myself, what is PCHEM long term prospects? Am I buying it below the intrinsic value and the earnings generated for the business?

So I still come to the opinion that Pchem is wonderful company selling at a wonderful price now.

This is exactly the point. If you were investing in the amounts of money like choivo does, any capital loss he makes is easily recoverable by putting in extra overtime in his job.

For me investing large capital is an added pressure in that the investment itself has to be barred on the a safety of capital point of view, and since I am no longer tied to using profits to live on a daily basis, I am able to take a longer view on things and what to buy.

In these cases, buying and keeping for a longer period of time becomes more rewarding.

I am reminded of my long term investment in topglove, I had put in on a backend due to my annoyance at the company from its recent acquisition without full due diligence, and had expected it to take a few more years to recover its earnings.

Suddenly due to a virus, everyone is buying any available stock in topglove, just like how Mr market would act. I expect even more insanity when topglove shows worthwhile results and the price excludes further.

And even QL is impressive after all the comments on pe50 etc etc, the earnings keep growing, the confidence keep coming up, and say 6.7 last year today it is up to 8.17 with dividends growing while all the naysayers keep standing at the bylines.

All I can say is, PCHEM is far safer than many companies like lctitan. You don't have to worry about any cash calls or share dilution or private placements. You don't have to worry about any dividend reduction as their payout is still 50% of earnings. And it has 12 billion of cash in the bank to ride out any crises.

For those who don't buy, then I hope you spend the next 5 years following this company closely and looking at the long term results.

For those that buy, I hope you have the patience I had when I first bought my ten baggere in ql and topglove, which I am still holding until today.

For those that are considering selling, I hope you can answer the million dollar question, sell and buy what? Which is the better investment?

As Jonathan 5000 investment thesis into rcecap historical over 5 years, or timecom, or aeon credit, e investments you don't make matter as much as the investments you made in life.

Luckily I have had a long time to buy and look at the market too see when you have a discount day, and when you have a structural failure of the business.
>>>>>>>

Joon Chan Of course there are better.
Risk is opportunity cost to me.
But where would you park 5m or more?
25/01/2020 12:51 AM

Volatility is our friend. When stock prices go down without warning, especially on rock solid wealth generating companies that are triple A rated by banks ( Moody's rate Petronas as a safer investment than Malaysian government), and there is no clear reason for business downturn other than short term scares from China virus, this is a sure sign of a discount opportunity.

Like how munger likes to put it, look to the business first before determining the price. And when you look at the business try to understand the long term prospects of the company.

Once earnings normalize, we are looking at a company with:

20 billion in assets,
12 billion in cash.
And 2 billion in debts.

Historically it has been doing 4 billion in earnings, with the current drop-down recently. If you believe this will continue to stabilise and earn 4 billion a year , with 20+% profit margins,

You are paying 43 billion ( minus 10 billion in cash) for a company that generates 4 billion in earnings yearly, which I think is a great deal.

As it looks likely that you will receive 25 cents this year and using that as a benchmark, getting a 3.77% dividend with a likelihood of a company growing the next few years will be a wonderful investment.

I have increased my exposure at these wonderful prices which is a multi year low. Happy to invest further.

Topglove is doing well in my portfolio it has recovered far faster than I expected. However I believe this is a kneejerk reaction due to the coronavirus. But as the earnings results stabilise, which it will sooner or later, and growth comes in from the medical side, I believe topglove will have a good few years now to run.