I think it is wasting time to keep making fun and bullying old grandfather stories. As he is a prolific storyteller, and does amuse me from time to time on his confident promotions, I just leave it up to here and respect that Calvin tan does say " do your own due diligence" if you decide to buy or sell any stock.

His stories in maybulk and using just one metric (BDI) to decide the future of a business is exemplary.

As he loves to tell imaginary stories, we should just respect his right to post and just be the check and balance for him.

As usual, in each article he writes, I will just leave his track record here for us to monitor yearly and see his overall performance.


https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp


Good luck sifu calvin tan. May you make your profit by raising prices and denying hardworking johor people of the most basic of rights: food, shelter, transportation and health.

Your property speculation activities has raised the price of housing and made many individuals unable to pay a cheap fair price for housing, even as salary increase have been stuck for many years.

The only reason why house pricing had gone up and up and up, while salary has gone lower and lower is due to rampant speculation.

By speculating on the price of housing, you are taking advantage of poor and young families that need a roof over their heads. I hope your religion does you proud. You would rather leave a house empty than sell it at a cheaper price or let a family buy it. Good for you.

20 homes and proud. Why proud? You should be ashamed instead...

There are many ways to make money, gambling, vices, alcohol, monopolies of basic life needs are not things we should be proud of doing.

Maybe one day you should visit Hong Kong and those families living in cardboard cage apartments, and understand the cost of your greed.

But your reply is always simple, if cannot afford to live here, then move out la? Why stay in?

You only need one house to live in. Why speculate on 20? Taking advantage to buy low cost housing that is needed by the the majority of population and selling it to them at ever higher prices knowing they have to buy sooner or later? Where is the Christianity in that?

Now I know where Calvin tan money comes from. From the sweat and tears of low income families.

It is not from stocks ( he doesn't know how to make wealth from stocks only cookie crumbs), but it is from his rampant speculation of a basic right of humankind. That is how he really makes money. Taking from the young and poor to feed the rich.

Buying a property for 79k in Johor? Those are not homes that one should be buying and speculating on, as there are very few types of dwellings that fit that price unless it is meant for low and middle income families( selling at 250k 6 years later and proud of it? Who do you think your are selling to?)

SCUM.

SCUM.

I hope your Jesus is proud of you.

Imagine if there was no HDB flats in Singapore, you and your kind would have speculated and bought all the surrounding property and forcing everyone to pay an even higher price for middle and low income families, driving them into a debt trap. Thank God for a forward thinking leader that anticipated parasites like you.


AGAIN I SAY, SCUM.

AND TO BE PROUD OF BEING A PARASITE. Of buying low and selling that necessary basic life need to a family that requires it at a high price.

SCUM.

315 dropping

The reason why it is trading at high PE is because the management is exemplary, hiring european team to lead and having very good financial strength in perpetual bonds (which armada doesn't even dare ask because they know no one will give) which allows them to operate efficiently and win projects with high profit .

also, not having its share price crash from RM1 to 65 cents to 15 cents does help in giving shareholders faith in the company, unlike bumi armada which not only change ceos, pays its directors absurdly but also chooses the roughest worse seas to send their fpso and pump for oil.

What do you mean on paper looks good? You mean the profit trails and FPSO charter wins and charter rates (just compare average rates with armada) are not good? Gosh!

There is nothing more transparent than a ferry business that transports oil.

Leave it up to the minority shareholder to make things more complicated than it really is.

>>>>>>>>


RJ87 As long on paper looks good, can get more perpetual bond. Can pay more dividend summore.
Isn't that why it's trading at PE32? Awesome!
26/09/2019 1:15 AM

This is from a guy who says think deeply. What a hack. Everyday new stocks to promote, buy sell buy sell like an old man on viagra.

>>>>>>>
calvintaneng OK guys

Bdi index has dropped to 2051 now

Calvin thinks better not chase maybulk now.

Watch and see first and reduce further exposure

Nov 2019 results should still be ok as there is only 6 more days left for Sept month of 2019

There are 3 stocks I think will be well supported

1. Scomies 7045. This one has a contract with Kuwait oil Corp for the supply of drilling fluid for rm610 millions. Ceo has bought 1.8 million scomies at 10.5 sen. Now scomies has retraced to 10.5 sen. If you don't have can buy some now

2. Opcom. This is the top stock for THE DIGITAL ECONOMY. Govt 12 MP thrust is for nationwide fiberisation. Opcom is the biggest listed company for fiber optics in Malaysia

3. Netx. Totally oversold and bombed out at 1 sen now. This price is low and Insiders expecting better times ahead have bought big chunks lately

Regards
Calvin
26/09/2019 8:26 AM

Hi Herbert

I totally agree on calvin tan johor sifu mentality. I find myself posting less and less as I realized most investors are gamblers and traders and whisperers. In fact majority have no portfolio or a record of long term returns and simply post, lose money and disappear from the forum.

But one thing we do have to admit, if calvintaneng really was a simple promoter, he would have long ago loss all his major funds and dissipated from the forum.

So we have a few deductions:
1) either Calvin tan makes some money from his incessant promotions of stocks ( enough that he stays on the forum, but not enough that he can retire properly and enjoy Holland life like his johor sifu)
2) Calvin tan doesn't make money, but neither does he loses it, because his hobby is to report on stock promotion, and not to act heavily on it. he knows his long term track record overall.
3) His real income is from other business. This is due to the sheer number of promotions and the impossibility to deploy enough funds on each one to make a difference.

In either case I hope he continues to post his promotional material as it saves me time delving through bursa stocks, and it is faster for me to plot through rubbish to find veins of gold sometimes.

Long live the Promoter! (and like calvin says, do your own due diligence, and dont just see and dumb dumb buy)

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

>>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 29, 2019 11:17 PM | Report Abuse

Precisely naysayers appeared

SEE

I once asked My Johor Sifu why he didn't participate more in Forum chat groups.

And he told me his reason for not doing. He said that when he shared his views - others will oppose him. Sometimes so heated that he will scold them, "I am not your father or your mother why should I teach you about investments"? Since the discussion led him to be contentious he totally given up.

Hi herbert

Hi sifu rj87, trying to understand more on your information, hope you can teach teach. I'm trying to understand how to confirm the debt figures from 16 billion you arrived at in 2016 as detailed from the linked reports. From quarterly and annual reports total debt though was at 13.04 billion. What am I looking at wrong?

31 Dec 2018 31 Dec 2017 31 Dec 2016 31 Dec 2015 31 Dec 2014

Total Debt 10,386.08 11,523.19 13,046.49 8,029.55
6 ,192.95

I'm assuming that your thinking is the reduction of 16 billion to 11.5 billion (4.5b) including principal and interest coverage is coming from cashflow profits, sales of OMV and JV profit sharing sales.

In your opinion is this sustainable and long term profitable? Or is it possible in the next 4 years ( Mabel says confident to clear off all debt) can be done simply through profits and cash flow without selling any more assets and JV profit sharing?

Thanks you in advance sifu rj87

as for your kps,

you promoted at 1.55 25 april 2019. you received bonus of 46 sen. but share price today is 0.685. meaning you have lost 0.405 on this trade (26% loss). since you didn't give a sell call, I expect that you are still holding on to this unrealized 26% loss. Even more so if you reinvested your dividends into buying more kps stocks (we will never know how you think).

So what is your total return of all the stocks with all the returns? the keyword here is volume and total invested value.

dont forget processing fees for dividend have a minimum amount, around rm30-50 depending on the bank.

calvintan you must include your stocks volume, how much you invest in. Every dividend has a minimum transactional fee for processing. for carimin you left after making measly 20 cents profit while others held for longer period.

based on your 40 stocks, if you put rm10,000 on each stock, you would have needed 400K cash for your returns. for a more realistic average, I would assume you invested 200K with RM5000 on each stock.

for example carimin, total dividend was 0.014 and 0.016 based on your initial purchase of 0.4. spending 5k on this you will get 12500 shares, at this holding cost your returns would be RM500 for the first cycle, with your returns slightly at the RM450 after taxes and processing fees. since you said that you quickly sold after getting a few cents profit (i believe you said you sold at 0.65), for 25 cents gain. how about the real annualized returns of your holdings AVERAGED OUT?

Calvintaneng is a very happy young girl looking forward to a bright and wonderful future!


>>>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

Sounds logical. Can you put that logic into explaining the inari and it's major shareholder Insas and the relationship on share price? By your logic something is leaking in INSAS and Inari?

>>>>>>>>

i_investor Truth is always truth, see it now.
When box is filled with valueable, the box must not be called empty box since it is filled up.

As always choivo your analysis doesn't take into account making a profit of make much sense at all. How is your rcecap investment doing?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/225697.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/225697.jsp

Trying to interview this guy recently, he has a 10 year record of trading that seems to make sense to me. The record is very impressive.

No one is here to learn about boasting, as luck may play a big issue. The purpose of looking at the portfolio history is to understand the reasoning behind each trade or investment and to see what happened after the stock was sold just as much as what happened when the stock was held. I think those who promote thinking without showing a proof of performance as boasting instead. Those I don't respect.

Like this post I have no interest in and I consider boasting.

"HSBC Holdings PLC for 20 years (I also hold several pieces of land for 30 years." Simply because there is nothing to learn from this statement, but much can be learned about why you bought the stock, was it a confident purchase ( +50% of you're net worth in one purchase), what other stocks did you buy along the way, or did you buy it and top up along the way and not sell a single share. Things like that interest me far more than just a simple shareholding analysis ( which is useless in learning anything).

Sslee u might want to Google who the co-founder of gamuda and ijm was. Then you might realize where the money trail started from.

>>>>>>>>

Sslee Hahahaha,
3iii may I ask is Mr. Koon fabulously rich by not holding great stocks for very long period of time?
Are you fabulously rich by holding great stocks for very long time?
18/09/2019 8:26 PM

Risktransformer you seem to think I have something against you. I don't. But hiring below the belt or not, I have been trading for a long time as well before I switched to a far more efficient and safe method of buying wonderful companies and paying the premium. But one thing I have always asked traders is to show the depth and volume of their trades, but sadly everytime I asked to see their portfolio history, almost all of them start spouting trade secrets and being defensive about their real returns on trading plans. Very few were willing to show their portfolio, and if those who did has only been trading for 5 years or less. Long term wise, great wealth has always come from following the great stock.

This concept is wrong. This common term of reference is taught wrongly. You can use this for bonds or fixed income vehicles or buying a business outright.

Your concept of paying pe50 as unsustainable is also patently wrong, as any short term differences in earnings ( example bumi armada or sapura) where past pe and forward pe is destroyed by shareholder dilution, a sudden shift in industry prospects, or a suddenly force majeure which changes short term or long term pe ratios.

If you believe this common reference of the world is flat I do not blame you, but as proof to the contrary abound (and earnings multiplication turn pe50 now into pe50 in the future but with huge earnings growth), I would sincerely advice you not to bring others to this "pay-back period" concept.

Buying stocks signify risk. That risk is what we look at PE as a market indicator.

It doesn't make sense to use PE as a predictive method.


>>>>>
The common term for reference is pay-back period. Hence naturally I equate PE 50 as pay-back period of 50 years if there is no yearly increase rate of return (growth rate). We then used the past 10 year market data available to project the best case and worst case growth rate to derive at the projected pay-back period.

Here is another example:

INSAS

2006 share price 0.38 cents 163 million revenue 21 million profit 618 million shares outstanding PE 12.6
2010 share price 0.53 cents 423 million revenue 60 million profit 660 million oustanding shares PE 5.88
2018 share price 1.00 cents 341 million revenue 90 million profit 663 million oustanding shares PE7.4

the question here is why has INSAS been on a low end of financial community analysis of PE value? The exact reason escapes me: but I will try my best to explore:

1) The businesses that INSAS is in is not a growth industry, therefore the prospects are low and not expected to warrant a high PE (as seen from revenue and earnings growth from 2006 to 2018)
2) INSAS management has not found the ability to turn profit into more future revenue and business units (as seen from growing NTA but management unable to grow business). sagging revenues and sagging profits will deter investors, unless point 3 is done.
3) if unable to grow business units, management should return unused capital back to investors in terms of share buyback/dividends. This is not very apparent.

Here is my point, if you know the future of INSAS, and you treat it as only a fixed deposit account, when matured in february 2020 you will take it out and get back your premium, would you pay a higher PE for the company? Probably not. You will in the end pay the exact amount of the business itself with no premium for the future.

PE cannot tell you about the future of the company, but it can tell you how the financial community thinks about the future of the company,

Thank you

Dear Lee Soon Sheng,

I find that you keep using this wrongful misconcept of the meaning of PE in your valuation of companies. I hope to explain to you once and for all so you can put it into your lexicon and stop asking preposterous questions.

"May I ask, in order for company shares to deserve a PE of more than 50X what should be the yearly growth rate of revenues and earnings?"

There is no correlation between PE and the prediction of future returns or growth of a company.

PE is merely what the financial community (to paraphrase peter lynch) is willing to pay for a companies earnings RIGHT NOW. IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT A COMPANY WITH HIGH GROWTH RATE DESERVES HIGH PE OR A COMPANY WITH LOW GROWTH RATE DESERVES A LOW PE.

As far as I can tell, the Price that the investing community is willing to pay for a stock right now is based on:

a) how transparent the business is ( how consistent the growth is, how much debt, what is the historical performance of the business, how clear is the earnings and growth estimates)
b) how confident the public is in the growth of the business (businesses that consistently beat earnings expectations will have higher pe compared to those that meet or fail those expectations), also historical growth rates true.
c)news and rumours (public or insider announcements)
d) market maker, movers and institutional buying

As I have tried to explain to you many times, PE does not predict future returns, only current interest.

Let me give you a simple example:

Amazon in:

2006 Earnings 0.45, share price of 39.46, PE of 87.69 (426 million shares)
2010 Earnings 2.28, share price of 135.77, PE of 59.55 (456 million shares)
2018 Earnings 7.94, share price of 1477.34, PE of 182.28 (500 million shares)

the revenue growth would be:
2006 10 billion 191 million profit
2010 34 billion 1 billion net profit
2018 233 billion 3.974 billion net profit

Do you see how silly it would be to apply just one metric in measuring the quality of a company and thus paying PE for it? If you had paid a pe of 87.69 in 2006, do you think that 10 years on you would be using a simple growth rate of revenue and earnings yield to judge a simple online store? of course not. As long as the business performs and grows, the share price of the business will always goes up as confidence grows. Using your simplified concept, you will never invest in gems like APPLE, QL, TOPGLOVE, AMAZON etc forever as you have screened youreself out of the keyword PE. businesess that keep on growing and growing will ALWAYS command a premium. Especially those with a huge moat.

QL in:

2006 Earnings 24 sen, share price of 4.86, PE of 20 (220 million shares)
2010 Earnings 27 sen, share price of 3.51, PE of 13 (390 million shares)
2018 Earnings 13 sen, share price of 6, PE of 46.15 (1622 million shares)

in the meanwhile, the revenue and earnings growth went from:

1 billion, 48 million in 2006
1.4 billion, 106 million in 2010
3.26 billion, 215 million in 2018

my question is SSLEE. how can you use PE to define the future of a company? or if a company deserves it or not? share price is guaranteed to go up if the business fundamentals perform well. If you pay pe50 for a wonderful company today, you will probably far more for the same company tomorrow, if it continues to grow and grow and grow.

THANK YOU.

>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Sep 13, 2019 12:30 PM | Report Abuse

Dear 3iii,
My Golden Rule of Investing: “Companies that grow revenues and earnings will see share prices grow over time.”

May I ask, in order for company shares to deserve a PE of more than 50X what should be the yearly growth rate of revenues and earnings?

Do QL deserved PE of more than 50X with it past, current and projected growth rate? and with CAPEX more that the net profit?
Long term borrowings (LT Debts/Total Equity): 30%

Thank you

well from what information that I do have now:

From what we know, government squeeze gkent for discount, they squeeze us for discount. But still fair price, so its win-win.

Hopefully I can get more info from forumers on the status of these projects
1. Design and Build 150-Bed District Hospital in Tanjung Karang (progress claim submission) - 277 million
2. Design and build 220-bed Hospital Endokrin in Precinct 7, Putrajaya from Public Works Department -364.9 million
3. the mrt2 package ssp-sy-204 (1 billion JV CCCC and gkent) still to be completed in May 1st 2021 (work package for trackworks, maintenance vehicles and work trains for the entire 52.2-km Sungai Buloh-Serdang-Putrajaya (SSP) mass rapid transit (MRT) alignment, also known as MRT2.

anyone have any idea what is going on with these other contracts?

Proven competence of gkent.

A. Water meter
B. Water treatment plant construction and operation
C. Hospitals construction
D. Railways systems

I think a company like this is far better than those that just concentrate on building condos and houses and hotels and stuck with high assets but huge debts.

Who would you rather have building your railways? Binapuri,spsetia, Sunway, gamuda or Gkent?

>>>>>>

4.undeniable water meter is part of GKENT competence but dont forget all the years before this the big star contribution is from construction segment and not water meter, profit margin from water meter also far lower than construction segment

A. KUALA LUMPUR (April 12): Malaysia Rail Link Sdn Bhd (MRL) and China Communications Construction Co Ltd (CCCC) have signed a supplementary agreement pursuant to the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project, which will proceed at a lower cost of RM44 billion


B. A state-initiated project, the PTMP is expected to cost an estimated RM46 billion.
Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/04/16/penang-lrt-project-to-start-next-year#0Hy4kZjkbWwADCqM.99

How sure are you gkent will not get a portion of these two mega projects (90 BILLION altogether)? A company profile with a track record of completing lrt, mrt2(2022) trackworks and trains, and lrt3 I believe will always have a higher chance than other local companies that do not have a track record. If course I may be wrong as usual and rainT already has the full list of subcontractors.

>>>>>>

2.the profit and sales will be more until the construction project is finish. take note that GKENT do not have high replenish order book as before already, and PH gomen also do less big project already

1.turnkey or PDP will have profit margin effect to GKENT
this is why PH gomen want to review all the big projects and cut companies who get high margin frm this project.

Lim pointed out that the government and Prasarana Malaysia Bhd had renegotiated the 6% fees for the PDP, which amounted to RM948mil.

“The payments will now be based on a fixed fee contract, which is tied to fixed costs, and this means the 6% fee term does not exist,” he said.


Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/08/08/mrcb-and-gkent-shares-rise-on-confirmation-as-pdp-for-lrt3#tMpHOm7AjWK4ROVf.99

Previously their fees is only for project delivery partner, meaning is consultation and management fees.

Now we are looking at fixed contract of 16.6 billion, so their profit margins are based on this fixed contract, meaning based on renegotiation ( reduced underground, reduced tracks and size of stations, reduced number of stations), anything gkent makes will be based on how efficient they are in handling these costs. I will be the first person to say it is being handled very well.

At a turnkey contractor profit of 10% ( overall), they are looking at additional profit of 1.6 billion for the same project which is even better. Take note on the reduction of size and expenses of lrt3, it will play a huge portion in the final net profit due to mrcb and gkent.
If we just look at gkent only on PDP end management they still earn 948 million, the cost cutting measure will see them earning even more.

I repeat here a word of wisdom that has guided my investment philosophy since I bought ql in 2009 and never sold a single share since.

From Philip fisher:

Conversely, as such a stock rises to, say, 50 or 60 or 70, the urge to sell and take a profit now that the stock is “high” becomes irresistible to many people. Giving in to this urge can be very costly. This is because the genuinely worthwhile profits in stock investing have come from holding the surprisingly large number of stocks that have gone up many times from their original cost. The only true test of whether a stock is “cheap” or “high” is not its current price in relation to some former price, no matter how accustomed we may have become to that former price, but whether the company’s fundamentals are significantly more or less favorable than the current financial-community appraisal of that stock.

From my understanding, pchem did not guide towards reduced profit next quarter ( I may be totally wrong on this, RainT monitors short term reports far more accurately than an old man like me), as much as they have guided towards a planned turnaround of a few of their plants in the quarter. But as I understand it they have also increased the number of inventory stockup to meet this production shortage. So I may be wrong on a profit reduction, then again I am also usually wrong on my stock purchase timing,( but rarely wrong on the stock itself).

In either case: to each his own. Everyone has their own way of making money. As long as we all make money from the forum, I am happy for you haha.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Sslee Dear Philip
Peace, manage to sold some Pchem for quick profit, will buy back some during discount day as everyone is expecting reduce profit for next quarter.
17/09/2019 12:59 PM

Hi RainT, I have not forgotten. I used my dividend to buy more shares as well as margin expansion in late August during the discount day. But as I do not know exactly how much the turn around will be or how low the results will go, I will just wait for the next quarter results to make my decision on whether to hold our buy more.

It is sad that sslee has turned into a trader instead of a long term investor, but I guess making 10%+ on a stock beats fixed deposit.

But the more important question is, where to deploy the profits into the next stock? I still find few stock as solid and undervalued currently as PCHEM with huge cash hoard, an incredible 10 year future, and a monopoly of the local market like no other.

>>>>>>>>>

RainT now all hu ha hu ha

the share price go up

all forget next qtr result have turn around ...?
17/09/2019 2:15 PM

Yes, no need to worry about short term volatility, gkent had gone up from 1.01 and up to 1.09 . So is it a good deal or a bad deal? My advice is to ignore the noise from oil, pH, bursa and trade war. Just look to the business and understand the business. The main points to predict and understand is still the same.

1. Is gkent still doing lrt3 job? If they are what is the difference between PDP and turnkey? And in essence, once it is complete what will be gkent net profit to shareholders?
2. Will the net profit and revenue be more in the next few years than it is today?
3 will the dividend be more or less in the next few years compared to previous year? Will they declare no dividend?
4. Will the profit from water meter business alone be enough to pay growing dividend? Will they have competitors in their industry portions?


Everything else is an assumption. These are details which you can ask and find out from the AGM and their competitors and subcontractors.

Please note that the price going up and down has come before quarterly report announcement, meaning it is all speculation. Quarterly report is the real fact on business performance.

Again I always say if the previous quaterv report was good enough for you to make an investment ( which I did from rm 1.12-1.15), if the share price drop without news or announcement from management, it can only mean 2 things, a change in short term perspective ( meaning discount day), or a change in insider information trading ( which is why I rarely buy into smallcaps).

In either case investment should be done upon valuation of information and long term prospects, not based on charts, patterns and conjecture.

Calvin has added yet another stock to his comparison list. If things proceed he might as well start an exchange traded fund that we can track in totality, his recommendation is that much. We will use that to monitor his long term results.

>>>>>>>>

Https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/225083.jsp

It seems short term traders and long term investors will always never see eye to eye, and whatever comment I make ( good or bad) will be taken the wrong way. I wish you good look on your journey. I am buying PCHEM on a timeframe of 5-10 years so I don't need to worry about short term volatility of RM8 drop to rm6. I did try to find your explanation 7-8 months ago ( I only started investing in PCHEM volume in late February) but couldn't find any further information of clarity. In either case I really don't worry why other people are buying or selling as long as I know why I do so. I consider it short term noise, and I still believe the true indication of long term share profits lie in growth of revenue, earnings and keeping shareholder value. In the end the business itself is of utmost importance, and not what the markets and individual are reacting towards.

Peace.

Hi risktransformer, I truly apologize if you thought that I am attacking you. I do not know you nor have any intention to know you or your trading methods. I personally wrote an article on my investment in late February when I bought it at rm8.15.

I have never attacked you very I felt inclined to say something because I felt that your comments had no grounds.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchsh/5183.jsp

If you looked at EPF declaration of purchase/sales you would notice that the amounts they are selling and buying are varied and balanced throughout the entire 8 month period., In fact, they had roughly 605 million shares of pchem in February, and 600 million shares in PCHEM in the latest announcement. So how do you mean EPF consistent heavy selling? They still own 600 million shares in PCHEM...

Again I am not attacking you because I always appreciate good and well researched information. I think you are a hard working young man, but I think you are still trying to find your way in the bursa investing world which is definitely not easy.

However, sometimes I do wish investors spent more time to understand exactly why PCHEM share price went down in the past months, is it a permanent drop in business fundamentals causing the share price drop it is it a temporary volatility in price. That would be far more helpful than being biased on people and business.

I wish you a fruitful Malaysia day. I repost my story here, hoping you would find it useful.


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/188844.jsp


>>>>>>>>>>>>

. I won't explain much further because every time I explain some things in detail, Philip and his followers would start attacking me..... just like 7 or 8 months ago when I explained how EPF's consistently heavy selling would bring down PCHEM's price & cause many people to lose money (at that time PCHEM was around RM8.50 to RM9.50).

I am sure there are many ways to make short term profit, by feeling //with high volatility in profit and loss. However I have been investing in the stock market since 90's. During the days when you could easily day trade, short, buy options ( yes bursa used to allow you to buy and trade option contracts), I used to buy single stock futures, options contracts and go every which way. I had many sifus back then ( all gone now). For almost 27 years now, I have realized one simple fact.

Long term results come from long term understanding of the business/ commodities/investment that you know about.

Buy & dumb dumb hold to me basically means: sticking to what you know and buying businesses that you understand, rather than casting a wide net and buying/ selling on fear, market rumors, personal objectives etc.

I do agree totally with you on the fact that knowledge and skill is of paramount importance.

But how can buying 40 stocks which business you hardly know about ( but trade based on hocus pocus like trends and patterns) make you successful. I tell you truthfully, in 27 years of investing, I have yet to meet a sifu who is willing show you his charting results that work long term. Why is it that billionaires like Warren buffet, Ken fisher and ray dalio willing to write books and show you their results while no one who uses charts and daytrading and patterns even willing show show you their 20 years returns? I believe since there is so little evidence that it works ( other than Jim Simon's medallion fund, which has stopped reporting since 2005 and booted out all outside investors). So I rule out short term trading ( although not currency, commodities and corporate raiding), where I see Icahn and Soros doing things very differently from what you think trading means.

Personally, in today's market, I think it is risky to do anything except dumb dumb hold and accumulate in businesses and stocks you know well rather than chasing the hot stock or stock tip or buying a stock where you can't see where the revenue and earnings will be coming from 5 years from now.

I like Philip fisher and Warren buffet concept the best: of you do decide to buy something, be so sure of the company that you will be confident holding it for 3 years to 10 years or longer. If you aren't confident enough on the long term prospects of the company, then don't buy it at all.

Show me a daytrader( or weektrader) on the Forbes list. I'll change my mindset then.

The ONLY GUARANTEED way to profit LONG TERM is to buy companies where the revenue, earnings grow year after year, while keeping debt and shareholderb dilution in check.

I can personally vouch for this: from 1995-2008 I was a horrible failure and loser at profiting from stocks. 2009 onwards after changing my mindset, my results were far more than satisfactory.

You don't have to be a genius to profit from stock picking, you just need a very disciplined mind set.


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Posted by risktransformer > Sep 14, 2019 9:45 AM | Report Abuse

@enigmatic, it doesn't has to be "viewed from yearly perspective" ONLY. U r free to view it from different perspective, whether it is yearly, weekly or daily. There is no ONE way that is right to profit from any stock (including PCHEM). It all depends on your personal objectives, taking into consideration your age, the amount of capital u have, your monthly income (from other source), and your level of knowledge & skill in investing/trading. This forum should cater to all different types of investor/trader & I don't think it is right to insist that the ONLY way to profit is to "buy & dumb dumb hold." Personally, I think it is very risky to stick to "dumb dumb hold" strategy in the current market environment.

-------------------------------------------------------------
enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing]: Profiting from Pchem has to be viewed from yearly perspective, not daily. Buy at RM7+ now and HODL until RM10. It takes months, probably years, but ultimately Pchem will make us wealthier.
13/09/2019 5:43 PM
--------------------------------------------
14/09/2019 9:44 A

My belief is Herbert has bought a lot of shares at the rm0.5-0.9 level and is feeling frustrated and cheated by layhong management. My heart goes out to him.

The only advice I can give to him the same that I learnt from Charlie munger. You don't have to make your money back the same way you lost it.

By cutting your losses and quickly redeploying it in either turnaround companies with growing earnings, or in wonderful companies suffering temporary setback from trump trade war offshoot, or in growth industries like semiconductor tech or oil and gas companies growing good profits at all time low prices, you really can make your own turnaround.

You don't have to make back your losses by profiting back in the same stock.

That is where ego lies.

Just cut your loss, learn from your mistakes, refine your technique, buy better stocks and move on.

The market can be wrong for far longer than you can stay solvent.

This concept, while I agree very much, is also mm in complete thinking.

The concept of comparing stocks to milo tins is more in relation to buying commodities and bonds rather than stocks.

Buying stocks based on past earnings is a recipe for disaster, as the stock prices goes up or down based on future earnings and results, not the past.

Instead, a better comparison would be this by Philip Fischer. You have a choice of giving £100 to one of the students in the graduating class of Harvard. Each one will take your money for a future share of his salary years from now when he gets a job. Who do you choose?

You will quickly realize that the smartest students with the best results usually get the best jobs writing for large corporations. They will give you the biggest long term results.

But also, do you sell your share when the smartest student becomes senior manager of the company and instead invest in the worst performing student of the class just because he has not found a job yet, based only on the assumption that since he did not get a job yet, he might have a better one in the future?

No of course not. There is no guarantee that the senior manager top student might lose his job, in fact, there is usually a high chance that such a well performing achiever might just become the vice President of the company in the near future.

In fact that is what stock picking is about, trying to predict future performance of a stock based on an evaluation of the current and past earnings of the company, the managerial performance, the industry and the company characteristics and it's long term capability versus peers.




>>>>>>>>>

Pitfall #3: Buying Expensive Stocks assuming they are cheap.
Many people think that a stock which trades at $1.00 is cheaper than one stock which trades at $10.00.
It is flawed thinking.
Let me put it this way.
You are two choices between two tins of Milo: Tin A and Tin B. Tin A is priced at $10.00 and Tin B is priced at $12.00. Which of the two tins is cheaper?
Some of you may ask: ‘How big is Tin A and Tin B?’
If that is you, I believe you are getting the idea. It is very possible for Tin B to be cheaper than Tin A.

If we find that Tin A contains 500g of Milo Powder and Tin B has 850g, then, it’s obvious that Tin B offers better value than Tin A in terms of the amount of Milo Powder per Dollar and thus, is cheaper. You get more Milo Powder per Dollar if you buy Tin B than Tan A.
Likewise, stock prices alone does not tell you whether or not a stock is cheap or expensive. Stock prices should be compared relatively with its earnings to really find out of its true worth. This would tell us effectively whether or not a stock is undervalued or overvalued, which enables us to make better decisions.

I admit! So what does this have to say about PCHEM. If EPF seek then it is a bad stock? If they buy then is a good stock?

So EPF bought many stocks which crash, and some sticks which make money. More importantly EPF is not just one party which buy and sell stocks, but outsourced to a huge group of fund managers which invest on EPF behalf buy under same account. They manage billions in bursa.

So which EPF find manager disposed, and which EPF find manager acquire. Do you know? I certainly don't.

Therefore I choose to trust in myself. As EPF didn't buy ql in 2009, topglove in 2010, and yinson in 2012( which I did) and more importantly, EPF did not hold it until today as long as me, I would like to believe that you should always trust and improve your own valuation skills, instead of putting blind trust in EPF.


8888_ EPF disposed why no1 admit?
13/09/2019 5:08 PM


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EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 10-Sep-2019 Disposed 41,700 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 06-Sep-2019 Disposed 3,000,000 0.000 View Detail
AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA ("ASB") 06-Sep-2019 Acquired 642,600 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 05-Sep-2019 Disposed 3,000,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 04-Sep-2019 Disposed 1,177,100 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 03-Sep-2019 Disposed 2,000,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 30-Aug-2019 Disposed 2,782,600 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 28-Aug-2019 Disposed 434,700 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 27-Aug-2019 Disposed 322,600 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 23-Aug-2019 Disposed 337,700 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 22-Aug-2019 Acquired 1,889,100 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 21-Aug-2019 Acquired 174,100 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 20-Aug-2019 Acquired 2,198,748 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 19-Aug-2019 Disposed 1,000,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 16-Aug-2019 Acquired 1,013,500 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 15-Aug-2019 Acquired 1,818,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 15-Aug-2019 Acquired 150,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 14-Aug-2019 Acquired 102,800 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 13-Aug-2019 Acquired 840,100 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 09-Aug-2019 Acquired 783,400 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 08-Aug-2019 Acquired 951,300 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 07-Aug-2019 Acquired 2,000,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 06-Aug-2019 Acquired 140,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 05-Aug-2019 Acquired 1,565,800 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 02-Aug-2019 Acquired 625,000 0.000

There are 2 points i an wondering about:

1. Their products have not gained full acceptance yet. In an effort to do so, they have built demonstration machines to show off their capabilities. Apparently all the demonstration machines were then sold and they're in the process of building more. How long does it take them to build one machine turnaround usually? Their main specialty is in osats market and semiconductor quality testing. Their current main customer is ASE, I'm trying to figure out how much of the cake they have a potential to take and who the major supplier to ASE is.

2. I'm always worried about long term profit margins of companies who use the tax free incentive from MITI as a way of generating extraordinary earnings within the 5 years it is available. As the company I am working for also had the MITI tax free incentive, we used the tax free profits to push more sales and revenue. This drastically dropped when the tax incentive ended, but clients were used to our low prices so when it ended we had a huge problem keeping up margins. If you take a look at the before and after of mikro MSc bhd you will get an idea of what I mean of the long term effects of this competitive value. I guess what I mean is: how is mi competing with the other Taiwanese, Korean, China and Japanese firms, is it with price? Quality? A special patent? Will mi still be viable or will it suffer when it has to start paying 24% taxes on earnings before tax.

Hi sslee, just out of curiosity what is the 5 year cash position and deposits of INSAS? Can you advise how much the cash and deposits have grown?

The one sure and true way for a share price to go up is through the growth and increase of revenue and earnings. If every year earnings and revenue goes up ( after taking into account debt management, tax payments and share dilution), the the share price will go up. Everything else is prone to financial engineering, no matter how lovely.

What does mi sell? And who is the current market leader? May I know?

Their main production 50% is caustic soda. And long term prices for this is very low, so I think there is a reason why the company is pe3.5. somehow I don't see the margins staying put there at anytime soon.

Just because I don't keep blasting comments out like Stockraider does not mean I disappear from forum for a long time. In fact I start current as possible with my stock purchases which you can see at any time, but in the end stick investment is about waiting, not about talking like Stockraider and Calvin tan.

I chose to respond with my portfolio of buying and selling. In fact I added a huge block right after dividend ex, on 2nd September when the price dropped to historic lows.

How many times can I say I have faith in PCHEM without it being boring? The information and fundamentals never changed, after all.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp

>>>>>>>>

risktransformer Hehehe..... if PCHEM's price shooting up then nobody can win argument with Philip but when the price keep dropping to historical low then Philip disappeared from forum for a long time.
12/09/2019 12:35 PM

This is not yet happening, because your next sentence is "building" which means not yet happen. In either case if it has already happen, then it will still not be efficient as building a petrochemical plant closer to source of oil refinery and processing. Note that China is the biggest importer of oil, meaning its internal production is not enough to cover. In fact south East Asia is a big producer ( Petronas) and Saudi ( Aramco) which is exporting nearer to.... IPIC PCHEM. What this means is pchem will continue to be the cheapest source or petrochemicals in the future ( hence it's large net profit margin compared to existing China and Korea competitors). With below 5% margins currently, it will only be suicide for China to start "flooding" the market against a company that has 25% bet profit margins.

You can compare Korea Lotte profit margin and China petrochemical profit margin.

One thing is clear, in the long term, oil prices will rebound, pchem will have increased revenue and even cheaper production costs after IPIC is completed and running.

Start comparing what is already happening, instead of what ifs.


>>>>>>>>

It is already happening. China is building a new petrochemical plant which upon completion will flood the market so bad that Japan and Korea already worried on the oversupply.

This is not how Palm oil industry works. Fertilizer is not put today, tomorrow increased results. You have to continuously put fertilizer to get maximum output in size and bunch in a year or two. Maybe you should ask a Palm oil plantations on the fertilizer cycle and whether it is something that is "wasting money" long term. They will rather save money on equipment maintenance and replacement than cut down on fertilizer cycles.

>>>>>>>>

Palm oil will use less fertiliser because since oil palm price is not good, why wanna waste money on fertiliser.

When Mr market gives you a discount day. Those who only look at share price will always be ruled by share price. When share price goes up, Calvin gets scared and says it is overvalue, don't buy. When share price goes down, Calvin also says scared and says buy again when cheaper.

But has the long term business Cub fundamentals changed? Will Lotte overtake pchem? Will a major petrochemical company flood the market and destroy margins? Highly unlikely. It takes huge amount of capex to construct a petrochemical complex. This is truly a business where lowest cost producer takes everything.

Will people stop using chemicals and aromatics and fertilizer and plastics? Not in the next 15 years. Beauty products relying on chemical aromatics are becoming more and more, judging by the new brands and stores in the malls and shops ( pchem new market with high margin). Will Palm oil plantations stop using fertilizer? ( Malaysia's is world's second largest Palm oil producer). Will Asia stop using olefins? Impossible.

The next 5-15 years business fundamentals for PCHEM will not change at all.

With PIC and da Vinci inline, the past growth rate for PCHEM will be nothing like the next coming years.

With the changing government and improvements to governmental policies and reduction of corruption ( slowly but surely),

I remain confident.

Dumb dumb buy and hold.

Ps Calvin tan, tomorrow I am receiving 11 cents dividend, 200k+ to buy more shares of pchem.

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calvintaneng Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Sep 5, 2019 12:06 AM | Report Abuse

Pchem collapsing? Don't make me laugh. 50 billion dollar company with 4.3 billion in revenue and 1.1 billion in profit AFTER TAX and a horde of cash behind it.

I am just enjoying collecting my 11 +18 cents dividend since February when I started buying at 8.15 collecting my 11 +18 cents dividend

SO?

COST OF PURCHASE Rm8.15

Less 29 sen dividend = Rm7.86

Price now Rm6.83

SO REAL LOST OF Rm1.03 PER SHARE

IS THIS PHILIP IN HIS RIGHT MIND?

YOU BETTER DON'T LEAD SORCHAI TO HOLLAND HOR!
05/09/2019 12:12 AM

Is seal and atta considered undervalued if no one wants to buy their assets for sale? Somehow I don't think accounting methods properly underline the assets for sale of property counters.

When we say property counters are asset rich let's just be honest. They would wish that the assets were cash instead of unsellable properties and developing assets.

We should be looking for the property counter that has tons of cash, no debt and lots of properties being built in areas of high demand.

Not this. This is just a disaster waiting to happen.

>>>>>>>>>>>


funitec i like the target price set.Asset rich: But No rocket to boost up.
21/04/2017 11:00 PM

Do you even have the patience to wait for ten baggers? With your track record, I think you already mati pucuk sell before the business growth shows itself.

I bought yinson from rm1.15 to today and enjoy multiple growth in business, you on the other hand like to buy rumors and speculations like your bjland which dropped to 20 cents after your incessant promotion.

Who is the one cheating forum investors?

>>>>>>>>>>>>

stockraider Most importantly do not missed this 10 baggers opportunity, very hard to find mah.....!!

Posted by stockraider > Sep 8, 2019 10:24 AM | Report Abuse X

Very simple answer the fact is armada is better & has beaten yinson in terms of earnings in the past consecutive latest qtr mah...!!

ARMADA IS CURRENTLY MORE PROFITABLE COMPARE WITH YINSON MAH....!!

TO TELL U THE PROSPECT OF ARMADA COMPARE WITH YINSON, U SEE THE FOLLOWING LOH...!!

30-6-2019

ARMADA PAT RM 78.2M
YINSON PAT RM 49.9M

31-3-2019

ARMADA PAT RM 62.2M
YINSON PAT RM 60.7M

U will notice that Armada profit has exceeded yinson for the past 2 latest qtr loh.....!! Armada will be a big fish again soon mah..!

NOW DID ARMADA DEFAULT ? THE ANSWER IS NO LOH...!!
ARMADA HAS NEVER BEEN PN 17 MAH....!!
YES ARMADA DID THREATEN to DEFAULT, IF THE BANKS INSIST ON RECALLING THEIR LOANS LOH..!! IT JUST A NEGOTIATION TACTICS MAH....SINCE AT THAT TIME ARMADA OWE MORE THAN RM 13 BILLIONS MAH, AND ARMADA HAS NOT MISSED OUT IN ANY LOAN INSTALMENT PAYMENT JUST LIKE WHAT YINSON HAS BEEN PAYING ITS INSTALMENT CONTRACTUALLY LOH...!!

Armada did that to bring the banks to their financial senses loh...if they simply recalled and do not refinance their loan of few billions there are dire consequence for both the banks and armada to suffer loh..!!

Furthermore the huge impairment losses has no bearing on the operating cashflow of armada mah, in fact the operating cashflow is even better than yinson mah...!!

The fact is all has end well...Armada did pay down at least Rm 3 billion of loans eventually, the bank agree to extend and eventually to refinance their loans and lately kraken issue has been positively solve.

That means u are looking armada should value close to Yinson matrix that is Rm 2.60 and not Rm 0.26 loh...!! Armada will shine again & great profit opportunity of 10x bagger mah...!!

Now if u look at yinson, if the same happen,banks recalled a few billion loans, the samething will happen like armada too....but yinson risk bankrupt bcos financial muscle less strong n armada has proven it can survive loh...!!


Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Sep 8, 2019 7:07 AM | Report Abuse

Very simple answer to why yinson is valued so much higher than armada.

1. Has yinson defaulted on their perpetual loan? Is armada in default of its loan? Is it able to pay back the loan by November or MUST negotiate? When a company is forced to do things, that is when banks know they have them by the balls and can squeeze out any contractual agreement.

2. Why did armada default? Could it be the interest repayments are too high? Could it be the jobs they win are not enough to even pay back the interest repayments?

3. For armada to be a big fish soon they need to settle the 11.5 billion debt into manageable profitable business. Is this even doable with the current market environment?

4. You want to think that armada is yinson up to you, buy don't go around saying that yinson is worse than armada. It just make you look cheap and bad.

How about your sapura rm3 in 3 years 3 months? No more singing the same song?

How about INSAS rm0.9 by August 31? Failed attempt also? Now push to rm1 in February? Or become July?

Or how about your hengyuan intrinsic value margin safety rm35? How many kids you have to tell before we know what kind of investor you are?

Face the facts myvi boy, you throw numbers around like they mean something, but you have zero credibility.
08/09/2019 10:31 AM

Sohai Stockraider, making false promises again as usual? How you know exactly what the privatisation price will be? Everyday lie again myvi boy?

>>>>>>>>

stockraider RAIDER ADVICE THAT U KEEP COLLECTING AT RM 0.20 TO RM 0.22 WHENEVER U HAVE MONIES TO SPARE LOH....!

REMEMBER TO BUY HOLD LOH....!!

THE TP FOR PRIVATIZATION IS RM 0.43, SO PLS DON SIMPLY SELL MAH...!!
06/09/2019 10:03 PM