Yes, no need to worry about short term volatility, gkent had gone up from 1.01 and up to 1.09 . So is it a good deal or a bad deal? My advice is to ignore the noise from oil, pH, bursa and trade war. Just look to the business and understand the business. The main points to predict and understand is still the same.

1. Is gkent still doing lrt3 job? If they are what is the difference between PDP and turnkey? And in essence, once it is complete what will be gkent net profit to shareholders?
2. Will the net profit and revenue be more in the next few years than it is today?
3 will the dividend be more or less in the next few years compared to previous year? Will they declare no dividend?
4. Will the profit from water meter business alone be enough to pay growing dividend? Will they have competitors in their industry portions?


Everything else is an assumption. These are details which you can ask and find out from the AGM and their competitors and subcontractors.

Please note that the price going up and down has come before quarterly report announcement, meaning it is all speculation. Quarterly report is the real fact on business performance.

Again I always say if the previous quaterv report was good enough for you to make an investment ( which I did from rm 1.12-1.15), if the share price drop without news or announcement from management, it can only mean 2 things, a change in short term perspective ( meaning discount day), or a change in insider information trading ( which is why I rarely buy into smallcaps).

In either case investment should be done upon valuation of information and long term prospects, not based on charts, patterns and conjecture.

Calvin has added yet another stock to his comparison list. If things proceed he might as well start an exchange traded fund that we can track in totality, his recommendation is that much. We will use that to monitor his long term results.

>>>>>>>>

Https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/225083.jsp

It seems short term traders and long term investors will always never see eye to eye, and whatever comment I make ( good or bad) will be taken the wrong way. I wish you good look on your journey. I am buying PCHEM on a timeframe of 5-10 years so I don't need to worry about short term volatility of RM8 drop to rm6. I did try to find your explanation 7-8 months ago ( I only started investing in PCHEM volume in late February) but couldn't find any further information of clarity. In either case I really don't worry why other people are buying or selling as long as I know why I do so. I consider it short term noise, and I still believe the true indication of long term share profits lie in growth of revenue, earnings and keeping shareholder value. In the end the business itself is of utmost importance, and not what the markets and individual are reacting towards.

Peace.

Hi risktransformer, I truly apologize if you thought that I am attacking you. I do not know you nor have any intention to know you or your trading methods. I personally wrote an article on my investment in late February when I bought it at rm8.15.

I have never attacked you very I felt inclined to say something because I felt that your comments had no grounds.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchsh/5183.jsp

If you looked at EPF declaration of purchase/sales you would notice that the amounts they are selling and buying are varied and balanced throughout the entire 8 month period., In fact, they had roughly 605 million shares of pchem in February, and 600 million shares in PCHEM in the latest announcement. So how do you mean EPF consistent heavy selling? They still own 600 million shares in PCHEM...

Again I am not attacking you because I always appreciate good and well researched information. I think you are a hard working young man, but I think you are still trying to find your way in the bursa investing world which is definitely not easy.

However, sometimes I do wish investors spent more time to understand exactly why PCHEM share price went down in the past months, is it a permanent drop in business fundamentals causing the share price drop it is it a temporary volatility in price. That would be far more helpful than being biased on people and business.

I wish you a fruitful Malaysia day. I repost my story here, hoping you would find it useful.


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/188844.jsp


>>>>>>>>>>>>

. I won't explain much further because every time I explain some things in detail, Philip and his followers would start attacking me..... just like 7 or 8 months ago when I explained how EPF's consistently heavy selling would bring down PCHEM's price & cause many people to lose money (at that time PCHEM was around RM8.50 to RM9.50).

I am sure there are many ways to make short term profit, by feeling //with high volatility in profit and loss. However I have been investing in the stock market since 90's. During the days when you could easily day trade, short, buy options ( yes bursa used to allow you to buy and trade option contracts), I used to buy single stock futures, options contracts and go every which way. I had many sifus back then ( all gone now). For almost 27 years now, I have realized one simple fact.

Long term results come from long term understanding of the business/ commodities/investment that you know about.

Buy & dumb dumb hold to me basically means: sticking to what you know and buying businesses that you understand, rather than casting a wide net and buying/ selling on fear, market rumors, personal objectives etc.

I do agree totally with you on the fact that knowledge and skill is of paramount importance.

But how can buying 40 stocks which business you hardly know about ( but trade based on hocus pocus like trends and patterns) make you successful. I tell you truthfully, in 27 years of investing, I have yet to meet a sifu who is willing show you his charting results that work long term. Why is it that billionaires like Warren buffet, Ken fisher and ray dalio willing to write books and show you their results while no one who uses charts and daytrading and patterns even willing show show you their 20 years returns? I believe since there is so little evidence that it works ( other than Jim Simon's medallion fund, which has stopped reporting since 2005 and booted out all outside investors). So I rule out short term trading ( although not currency, commodities and corporate raiding), where I see Icahn and Soros doing things very differently from what you think trading means.

Personally, in today's market, I think it is risky to do anything except dumb dumb hold and accumulate in businesses and stocks you know well rather than chasing the hot stock or stock tip or buying a stock where you can't see where the revenue and earnings will be coming from 5 years from now.

I like Philip fisher and Warren buffet concept the best: of you do decide to buy something, be so sure of the company that you will be confident holding it for 3 years to 10 years or longer. If you aren't confident enough on the long term prospects of the company, then don't buy it at all.

Show me a daytrader( or weektrader) on the Forbes list. I'll change my mindset then.

The ONLY GUARANTEED way to profit LONG TERM is to buy companies where the revenue, earnings grow year after year, while keeping debt and shareholderb dilution in check.

I can personally vouch for this: from 1995-2008 I was a horrible failure and loser at profiting from stocks. 2009 onwards after changing my mindset, my results were far more than satisfactory.

You don't have to be a genius to profit from stock picking, you just need a very disciplined mind set.


>>>>>>>>

Posted by risktransformer > Sep 14, 2019 9:45 AM | Report Abuse

@enigmatic, it doesn't has to be "viewed from yearly perspective" ONLY. U r free to view it from different perspective, whether it is yearly, weekly or daily. There is no ONE way that is right to profit from any stock (including PCHEM). It all depends on your personal objectives, taking into consideration your age, the amount of capital u have, your monthly income (from other source), and your level of knowledge & skill in investing/trading. This forum should cater to all different types of investor/trader & I don't think it is right to insist that the ONLY way to profit is to "buy & dumb dumb hold." Personally, I think it is very risky to stick to "dumb dumb hold" strategy in the current market environment.

-------------------------------------------------------------
enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing]: Profiting from Pchem has to be viewed from yearly perspective, not daily. Buy at RM7+ now and HODL until RM10. It takes months, probably years, but ultimately Pchem will make us wealthier.
13/09/2019 5:43 PM
--------------------------------------------
14/09/2019 9:44 A

My belief is Herbert has bought a lot of shares at the rm0.5-0.9 level and is feeling frustrated and cheated by layhong management. My heart goes out to him.

The only advice I can give to him the same that I learnt from Charlie munger. You don't have to make your money back the same way you lost it.

By cutting your losses and quickly redeploying it in either turnaround companies with growing earnings, or in wonderful companies suffering temporary setback from trump trade war offshoot, or in growth industries like semiconductor tech or oil and gas companies growing good profits at all time low prices, you really can make your own turnaround.

You don't have to make back your losses by profiting back in the same stock.

That is where ego lies.

Just cut your loss, learn from your mistakes, refine your technique, buy better stocks and move on.

The market can be wrong for far longer than you can stay solvent.

This concept, while I agree very much, is also mm in complete thinking.

The concept of comparing stocks to milo tins is more in relation to buying commodities and bonds rather than stocks.

Buying stocks based on past earnings is a recipe for disaster, as the stock prices goes up or down based on future earnings and results, not the past.

Instead, a better comparison would be this by Philip Fischer. You have a choice of giving £100 to one of the students in the graduating class of Harvard. Each one will take your money for a future share of his salary years from now when he gets a job. Who do you choose?

You will quickly realize that the smartest students with the best results usually get the best jobs writing for large corporations. They will give you the biggest long term results.

But also, do you sell your share when the smartest student becomes senior manager of the company and instead invest in the worst performing student of the class just because he has not found a job yet, based only on the assumption that since he did not get a job yet, he might have a better one in the future?

No of course not. There is no guarantee that the senior manager top student might lose his job, in fact, there is usually a high chance that such a well performing achiever might just become the vice President of the company in the near future.

In fact that is what stock picking is about, trying to predict future performance of a stock based on an evaluation of the current and past earnings of the company, the managerial performance, the industry and the company characteristics and it's long term capability versus peers.




>>>>>>>>>

Pitfall #3: Buying Expensive Stocks assuming they are cheap.
Many people think that a stock which trades at $1.00 is cheaper than one stock which trades at $10.00.
It is flawed thinking.
Let me put it this way.
You are two choices between two tins of Milo: Tin A and Tin B. Tin A is priced at $10.00 and Tin B is priced at $12.00. Which of the two tins is cheaper?
Some of you may ask: ‘How big is Tin A and Tin B?’
If that is you, I believe you are getting the idea. It is very possible for Tin B to be cheaper than Tin A.

If we find that Tin A contains 500g of Milo Powder and Tin B has 850g, then, it’s obvious that Tin B offers better value than Tin A in terms of the amount of Milo Powder per Dollar and thus, is cheaper. You get more Milo Powder per Dollar if you buy Tin B than Tan A.
Likewise, stock prices alone does not tell you whether or not a stock is cheap or expensive. Stock prices should be compared relatively with its earnings to really find out of its true worth. This would tell us effectively whether or not a stock is undervalued or overvalued, which enables us to make better decisions.

I admit! So what does this have to say about PCHEM. If EPF seek then it is a bad stock? If they buy then is a good stock?

So EPF bought many stocks which crash, and some sticks which make money. More importantly EPF is not just one party which buy and sell stocks, but outsourced to a huge group of fund managers which invest on EPF behalf buy under same account. They manage billions in bursa.

So which EPF find manager disposed, and which EPF find manager acquire. Do you know? I certainly don't.

Therefore I choose to trust in myself. As EPF didn't buy ql in 2009, topglove in 2010, and yinson in 2012( which I did) and more importantly, EPF did not hold it until today as long as me, I would like to believe that you should always trust and improve your own valuation skills, instead of putting blind trust in EPF.


8888_ EPF disposed why no1 admit?
13/09/2019 5:08 PM


>>>>>>>>>

EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 10-Sep-2019 Disposed 41,700 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 06-Sep-2019 Disposed 3,000,000 0.000 View Detail
AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA ("ASB") 06-Sep-2019 Acquired 642,600 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 05-Sep-2019 Disposed 3,000,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 04-Sep-2019 Disposed 1,177,100 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 03-Sep-2019 Disposed 2,000,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 30-Aug-2019 Disposed 2,782,600 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 28-Aug-2019 Disposed 434,700 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 27-Aug-2019 Disposed 322,600 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 23-Aug-2019 Disposed 337,700 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 22-Aug-2019 Acquired 1,889,100 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 21-Aug-2019 Acquired 174,100 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 20-Aug-2019 Acquired 2,198,748 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 19-Aug-2019 Disposed 1,000,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 16-Aug-2019 Acquired 1,013,500 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 15-Aug-2019 Acquired 1,818,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 15-Aug-2019 Acquired 150,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 14-Aug-2019 Acquired 102,800 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 13-Aug-2019 Acquired 840,100 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 09-Aug-2019 Acquired 783,400 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 08-Aug-2019 Acquired 951,300 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 07-Aug-2019 Acquired 2,000,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 06-Aug-2019 Acquired 140,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 05-Aug-2019 Acquired 1,565,800 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD ("EPF BOARD") 02-Aug-2019 Acquired 625,000 0.000

There are 2 points i an wondering about:

1. Their products have not gained full acceptance yet. In an effort to do so, they have built demonstration machines to show off their capabilities. Apparently all the demonstration machines were then sold and they're in the process of building more. How long does it take them to build one machine turnaround usually? Their main specialty is in osats market and semiconductor quality testing. Their current main customer is ASE, I'm trying to figure out how much of the cake they have a potential to take and who the major supplier to ASE is.

2. I'm always worried about long term profit margins of companies who use the tax free incentive from MITI as a way of generating extraordinary earnings within the 5 years it is available. As the company I am working for also had the MITI tax free incentive, we used the tax free profits to push more sales and revenue. This drastically dropped when the tax incentive ended, but clients were used to our low prices so when it ended we had a huge problem keeping up margins. If you take a look at the before and after of mikro MSc bhd you will get an idea of what I mean of the long term effects of this competitive value. I guess what I mean is: how is mi competing with the other Taiwanese, Korean, China and Japanese firms, is it with price? Quality? A special patent? Will mi still be viable or will it suffer when it has to start paying 24% taxes on earnings before tax.

Hi sslee, just out of curiosity what is the 5 year cash position and deposits of INSAS? Can you advise how much the cash and deposits have grown?

The one sure and true way for a share price to go up is through the growth and increase of revenue and earnings. If every year earnings and revenue goes up ( after taking into account debt management, tax payments and share dilution), the the share price will go up. Everything else is prone to financial engineering, no matter how lovely.

What does mi sell? And who is the current market leader? May I know?

Their main production 50% is caustic soda. And long term prices for this is very low, so I think there is a reason why the company is pe3.5. somehow I don't see the margins staying put there at anytime soon.

Just because I don't keep blasting comments out like Stockraider does not mean I disappear from forum for a long time. In fact I start current as possible with my stock purchases which you can see at any time, but in the end stick investment is about waiting, not about talking like Stockraider and Calvin tan.

I chose to respond with my portfolio of buying and selling. In fact I added a huge block right after dividend ex, on 2nd September when the price dropped to historic lows.

How many times can I say I have faith in PCHEM without it being boring? The information and fundamentals never changed, after all.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp

>>>>>>>>

risktransformer Hehehe..... if PCHEM's price shooting up then nobody can win argument with Philip but when the price keep dropping to historical low then Philip disappeared from forum for a long time.
12/09/2019 12:35 PM

This is not yet happening, because your next sentence is "building" which means not yet happen. In either case if it has already happen, then it will still not be efficient as building a petrochemical plant closer to source of oil refinery and processing. Note that China is the biggest importer of oil, meaning its internal production is not enough to cover. In fact south East Asia is a big producer ( Petronas) and Saudi ( Aramco) which is exporting nearer to.... IPIC PCHEM. What this means is pchem will continue to be the cheapest source or petrochemicals in the future ( hence it's large net profit margin compared to existing China and Korea competitors). With below 5% margins currently, it will only be suicide for China to start "flooding" the market against a company that has 25% bet profit margins.

You can compare Korea Lotte profit margin and China petrochemical profit margin.

One thing is clear, in the long term, oil prices will rebound, pchem will have increased revenue and even cheaper production costs after IPIC is completed and running.

Start comparing what is already happening, instead of what ifs.


>>>>>>>>

It is already happening. China is building a new petrochemical plant which upon completion will flood the market so bad that Japan and Korea already worried on the oversupply.

This is not how Palm oil industry works. Fertilizer is not put today, tomorrow increased results. You have to continuously put fertilizer to get maximum output in size and bunch in a year or two. Maybe you should ask a Palm oil plantations on the fertilizer cycle and whether it is something that is "wasting money" long term. They will rather save money on equipment maintenance and replacement than cut down on fertilizer cycles.

>>>>>>>>

Palm oil will use less fertiliser because since oil palm price is not good, why wanna waste money on fertiliser.

When Mr market gives you a discount day. Those who only look at share price will always be ruled by share price. When share price goes up, Calvin gets scared and says it is overvalue, don't buy. When share price goes down, Calvin also says scared and says buy again when cheaper.

But has the long term business Cub fundamentals changed? Will Lotte overtake pchem? Will a major petrochemical company flood the market and destroy margins? Highly unlikely. It takes huge amount of capex to construct a petrochemical complex. This is truly a business where lowest cost producer takes everything.

Will people stop using chemicals and aromatics and fertilizer and plastics? Not in the next 15 years. Beauty products relying on chemical aromatics are becoming more and more, judging by the new brands and stores in the malls and shops ( pchem new market with high margin). Will Palm oil plantations stop using fertilizer? ( Malaysia's is world's second largest Palm oil producer). Will Asia stop using olefins? Impossible.

The next 5-15 years business fundamentals for PCHEM will not change at all.

With PIC and da Vinci inline, the past growth rate for PCHEM will be nothing like the next coming years.

With the changing government and improvements to governmental policies and reduction of corruption ( slowly but surely),

I remain confident.

Dumb dumb buy and hold.

Ps Calvin tan, tomorrow I am receiving 11 cents dividend, 200k+ to buy more shares of pchem.

>>>>>>>>>

calvintaneng Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Sep 5, 2019 12:06 AM | Report Abuse

Pchem collapsing? Don't make me laugh. 50 billion dollar company with 4.3 billion in revenue and 1.1 billion in profit AFTER TAX and a horde of cash behind it.

I am just enjoying collecting my 11 +18 cents dividend since February when I started buying at 8.15 collecting my 11 +18 cents dividend

SO?

COST OF PURCHASE Rm8.15

Less 29 sen dividend = Rm7.86

Price now Rm6.83

SO REAL LOST OF Rm1.03 PER SHARE

IS THIS PHILIP IN HIS RIGHT MIND?

YOU BETTER DON'T LEAD SORCHAI TO HOLLAND HOR!
05/09/2019 12:12 AM

Is seal and atta considered undervalued if no one wants to buy their assets for sale? Somehow I don't think accounting methods properly underline the assets for sale of property counters.

When we say property counters are asset rich let's just be honest. They would wish that the assets were cash instead of unsellable properties and developing assets.

We should be looking for the property counter that has tons of cash, no debt and lots of properties being built in areas of high demand.

Not this. This is just a disaster waiting to happen.

>>>>>>>>>>>


funitec i like the target price set.Asset rich: But No rocket to boost up.
21/04/2017 11:00 PM

Do you even have the patience to wait for ten baggers? With your track record, I think you already mati pucuk sell before the business growth shows itself.

I bought yinson from rm1.15 to today and enjoy multiple growth in business, you on the other hand like to buy rumors and speculations like your bjland which dropped to 20 cents after your incessant promotion.

Who is the one cheating forum investors?

>>>>>>>>>>>>

stockraider Most importantly do not missed this 10 baggers opportunity, very hard to find mah.....!!

Posted by stockraider > Sep 8, 2019 10:24 AM | Report Abuse X

Very simple answer the fact is armada is better & has beaten yinson in terms of earnings in the past consecutive latest qtr mah...!!

ARMADA IS CURRENTLY MORE PROFITABLE COMPARE WITH YINSON MAH....!!

TO TELL U THE PROSPECT OF ARMADA COMPARE WITH YINSON, U SEE THE FOLLOWING LOH...!!

30-6-2019

ARMADA PAT RM 78.2M
YINSON PAT RM 49.9M

31-3-2019

ARMADA PAT RM 62.2M
YINSON PAT RM 60.7M

U will notice that Armada profit has exceeded yinson for the past 2 latest qtr loh.....!! Armada will be a big fish again soon mah..!

NOW DID ARMADA DEFAULT ? THE ANSWER IS NO LOH...!!
ARMADA HAS NEVER BEEN PN 17 MAH....!!
YES ARMADA DID THREATEN to DEFAULT, IF THE BANKS INSIST ON RECALLING THEIR LOANS LOH..!! IT JUST A NEGOTIATION TACTICS MAH....SINCE AT THAT TIME ARMADA OWE MORE THAN RM 13 BILLIONS MAH, AND ARMADA HAS NOT MISSED OUT IN ANY LOAN INSTALMENT PAYMENT JUST LIKE WHAT YINSON HAS BEEN PAYING ITS INSTALMENT CONTRACTUALLY LOH...!!

Armada did that to bring the banks to their financial senses loh...if they simply recalled and do not refinance their loan of few billions there are dire consequence for both the banks and armada to suffer loh..!!

Furthermore the huge impairment losses has no bearing on the operating cashflow of armada mah, in fact the operating cashflow is even better than yinson mah...!!

The fact is all has end well...Armada did pay down at least Rm 3 billion of loans eventually, the bank agree to extend and eventually to refinance their loans and lately kraken issue has been positively solve.

That means u are looking armada should value close to Yinson matrix that is Rm 2.60 and not Rm 0.26 loh...!! Armada will shine again & great profit opportunity of 10x bagger mah...!!

Now if u look at yinson, if the same happen,banks recalled a few billion loans, the samething will happen like armada too....but yinson risk bankrupt bcos financial muscle less strong n armada has proven it can survive loh...!!


Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Sep 8, 2019 7:07 AM | Report Abuse

Very simple answer to why yinson is valued so much higher than armada.

1. Has yinson defaulted on their perpetual loan? Is armada in default of its loan? Is it able to pay back the loan by November or MUST negotiate? When a company is forced to do things, that is when banks know they have them by the balls and can squeeze out any contractual agreement.

2. Why did armada default? Could it be the interest repayments are too high? Could it be the jobs they win are not enough to even pay back the interest repayments?

3. For armada to be a big fish soon they need to settle the 11.5 billion debt into manageable profitable business. Is this even doable with the current market environment?

4. You want to think that armada is yinson up to you, buy don't go around saying that yinson is worse than armada. It just make you look cheap and bad.

How about your sapura rm3 in 3 years 3 months? No more singing the same song?

How about INSAS rm0.9 by August 31? Failed attempt also? Now push to rm1 in February? Or become July?

Or how about your hengyuan intrinsic value margin safety rm35? How many kids you have to tell before we know what kind of investor you are?

Face the facts myvi boy, you throw numbers around like they mean something, but you have zero credibility.
08/09/2019 10:31 AM

Sohai Stockraider, making false promises again as usual? How you know exactly what the privatisation price will be? Everyday lie again myvi boy?

>>>>>>>>

stockraider RAIDER ADVICE THAT U KEEP COLLECTING AT RM 0.20 TO RM 0.22 WHENEVER U HAVE MONIES TO SPARE LOH....!

REMEMBER TO BUY HOLD LOH....!!

THE TP FOR PRIVATIZATION IS RM 0.43, SO PLS DON SIMPLY SELL MAH...!!
06/09/2019 10:03 PM

A review for long term investors. How holding for the long term can benefit.


>>>>>>>
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip5/191626.jsp

For once Calvin ta n has made good research on Baltic index and it's effects on shipping companies. However as usual he doesn't dig deep enough and get the right companies to invest in.

Either that or he has a smokescreen going.

We ask know maybulk is not the main proxy to bulk carriers. They only have handyman and supermax and a few old panamax.

But 70% of index is dominated by the biggest ships the capesize with huge dwt of more than 100k tonnes. Those are the ones enjoying the huge profit margins recently

As usual we need to understand the shipping industry clearly.

1. The best companies are those with good long term contracts. In these case charters from vales iron ore mine startup in South America sending to China bypassing Panama canal.
2. The bigger the ship, the lower the costs of delivery and operational expenses. It is true there has been a huge consolidation and selloff of old ships to comply with new rules and just general building of the newer more efficient ships.
3. Maybulk is a non profitable bulk carrier company. It is true that it will make some money from the rise and the supply increase from commodities, but that is just a temporary short term action.
4. We should look to the wonderful drybulk shipping company that has been profitable even through the lean years, with superior management, good profit margin, fantastic locations and charters. That is what we should be buying with the recent increase in the Baltic dry index.

I am sure Calvin tan knows which company I am talking about.

Thanks Calvin for sharing this idea, even a broken clock can be right twice a day. I have just added to my portfolio a new non bursa stock.

Very simple answer to why yinson is valued so much higher than armada.

1. Has yinson defaulted on their perpetual loan? Is armada in default of its loan? Is it able to pay back the loan by November or MUST negotiate? When a company is forced to do things, that is when banks know they have them by the balls and can squeeze out any contractual agreement.

2. Why did armada default? Could it be the interest repayments are too high? Could it be the jobs they win are not enough to even pay back the interest repayments?

3. For armada to be a big fish soon they need to settle the 11.5 billion debt into manageable profitable business. Is this even doable with the current market environment?

4. You want to think that armada is yinson up to you, buy don't go around saying that yinson is worse than armada. It just make you look cheap and bad.

How about your sapura rm3 in 3 years 3 months? No more singing the same song?

How about INSAS rm0.9 by August 31? Failed attempt also? Now push to rm1 in February? Or become July?

Or how about your hengyuan intrinsic value margin safety rm35? How many kids you have to tell before we know what kind of investor you are?

Face the facts myvi boy, you throw numbers around like they mean something, but you have zero credibility.

>>>>>>>


Posted by stockraider > Sep 7, 2019 4:34 PM | Report Abuse

ARMADA IS CURRENTLY A MORE PROFITABLE COMPARE WITH YINSON MAH....!!

TO TELL U THE PROSPECT OF ARMADA COMPARE WITH YINSON, U SEE THE FOLLOWING LOH...!!

30-6-2019

ARMADA PAT RM 78.2M
YINSON PAT RM 49.9M

31-3-2019

ARMADA PAT RM 62.2M
YINSON PAT RM 60.7M

U will notice that Armada profit has exceeded yinson for the past 2 latest qtr loh.....!! Armada will be a big fish again soon mah..!

The most confusing thing to me is individuals who sell or refuse to buy excellent companies just because the pe is too high, believing that lower pe stocks will have a chance to run up and have a potential to perform Vs stock that has already "performed".

This is erroneous thinking.

It would be better to use the concept of investing now for a share of the future income of a group of individuals that just graduated university. Do we suddenly sell the rights for the top student in university that was accepted in a big company as management just because he has already performed? Is his future days already over at this point? It may be so, but to transfer our investment to one of the lesser graduates of the group just because he was not accepted in a big company or received a job yet just because of the potential of becoming one is silly.

Cream always rises to the top. Excellent companies that perform usually theme to continue to perform, while the mediocre ones tend to stay mediocre, no matter the potential.

Why not invest in the rubber company with 25% world market share? Or invest in the biggest nitrile glove manufacturer instead? Either topglove or hartalega would outshine kossan any day. In the long term this will be even more clear.

This is not the first time stockraider ha been caught to his face trying to lie through his teeth.

His logic however is insane.

He thinks short term debt that was due in April and now extended to November 2019 to pay back full payment is the same as a perpetual loan that is due in 999 years.

His argument is if cannot pay the interest then all loans are the same. I laugh at his foolishness and his lack of understanding between bad debt and good debt.

But of course he cannot stand the fact that I am a long term investor of YINSON, while he is a small time ikan bilis driving a myvi and acting as if he is a biggest minority shareholder of INSAS.

But such is the actions of tin kosong who interprets financial reports in a special (retarded) way.

>>>>>>>>


1. Armada gearing is about the same as YINSON mah.....how can u say armada highly leverage and yinson is not leh ??

If you look at history, one of the biggest reasons America went to war of independence from Britain is due to the backbreaker taxes and interests piled on by the bank of England. In the end the debt kept increasing and increasing until war because inevitable.

Bumi armada extension of debt repayment came under a very heavy cost, exchanging a reprieve of time to restructure its debts with a more onerous long term deal.

It's like that myvi driving kid who just started working and had his first credit card. He puts 11k on his card and soon realized all his hard work only serves to pay off the credit card debt and not his principal amount.

Bumi armada is struggling just to pay off the interests whole barely touching the principal amount.

Worse still, the toys and rolexes that he bought that he thought would be worth a lot of money if he resold them received a rude awakening when no one wants to buy those unutilised assets.

Things actually get worse when he sells the assets, his impairments and NTA goes straight down destroying value, and if he doesn't sell the assets he can't make payments.

How now brown cow?

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by ckca > Sep 7, 2019 6:51 AM | Report Abuse

you people are so good at your calculations, go and calculate how to ever solve the RM11.5 billion every growing debts ? All of you say so many things, ca go up 30sen lah, big FPSO market lah, oil price go up lah.. BUT can the RM11.5 billion fast growing debt be fixed ?

At first I thought only RM10 billion, suddenly I got a shock today.. people say already RM11.5 billion. Increase by RM1.5 billion... did Armada sell Perdana FPSO for RM1.5 billion to cover that debt increase ?

Still got another idle FPSO Claire for sales,by the time they sell Claire... how much more the debt would have increased ?

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Sep 4, 2019 9:15 PM | Report Abuse X

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

Your track record.

Calvin tan eng Yee angry I am posting and meeting track of his portfolio.

Calvin you are free to take a look at my portfolio at any time.

I'm sorry you didn't get to buy and hold QL for many many years and enjoy excellent growing dividend and profits.

Calvin tan as a pastor of city harvest church does not understand real world mechanics or the meaning of the word sarcasm.

SARCASM.

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Sep 4, 2019 9:15 PM | Report Abuse X

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

Your track record.

Calvin tan eng Yee angry I am posting and meeting track of his portfolio.

Calvin you are free to take a look at my portfolio at any time.

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Sep 4, 2019 9:15 PM | Report Abuse X

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

Your track record.

Calvin tan eng Yee angry I am posting and meeting track of his portfolio.

Calvin you are free to take a look at my portfolio at any time.

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Sep 4, 2019 9:15 PM | Report Abuse X

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

Your track record.

Calvin tan eng Yee angry I am posting and meeting track of his portfolio.

Calvin you are free to take a look at my portfolio at any time.

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Sep 4, 2019 9:15 PM | Report Abuse X

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

Your track record.

Calvin tan eng Yee angry I am posting and meeting track of his portfolio.

Calvin you are free to take a look at my portfolio at any time.

(HK1997 again) Philip https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

This is Calvin tan deep value portfolio for 2019. You can judge for yourself his long term performance.

Just ignore him when he says he has future sight and knows when to buy and sell and buy back exactly. His kps drop like a rock, business really crashing, after big dividend entire business gone down the drain.

But he says he made 20k.

Incredible! I assume he made money in TALAMT as well.
05/09/2019 9:38 AM

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

This is Calvin tan deep value portfolio for 2019. You can judge for yourself his long term performance.

Just ignore him when he says he has future sight and knows when to buy and sell and buy back exactly. His kps drop like a rock, business really crashing, after big dividend entire business gone down the drain.

But he says he made 20k.

Incredible! I assume he made money in TALAMT as well.

Your buy stocks based on share price? I thought you buy based on deep assets and value investing? Why everyday shifting goal posts? When I buy or hold depends on business fundamentals first, price second, when I bought pchem did 4 billion and 1 billion in EARNINGS. It was cheap at 8.15.
Now it is still doing 4 billion and 1 billion in EARNINGS. It is a discount day at 6.83. did we have a reduction in profit and announcement of losses? What justifies your idea of "collapse"?

Oh wait, you are the one leading sorchai to buy TALAMT at 9 cents and protasco and karambunai.

Why don't you just stick to your pastor work at city harvest church and wait for Kong hee to retire?

That way you can actually earn money.

Pchem collapsing? Don't make me laugh. 50 billion dollar company with 4.3 billion in revenue and 1.1 billion in profit AFTER TAX and a horde of cash behind it.

I am just enjoying collecting my 11 +18 cents dividend since February when I started buying at 8.15 and using it to buy more at cheap discounts.

What did your stock do? Oh wait, here is your track record.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp

The more I read the sicker I get. Same kind as Stockraider. Can airways predict bottom and top infinite accuracy? Incredible loser skills. Great sage of liars.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

Your track record.

Hi Patrick13, I am glad that Gkent did not win any new construction contract as their funds and efforts should be concentrated in completing the 16 billion contract that they have already won. If they take action to spread themselves too thin and take jobs that they cannot complete that would be worrying for me. I like management's that know their limits and capabilities. You don't always have to take new jobs that you may end up losing money on and doing low margins.

Case in point uzma, take so many jobs high cost, high revenue high risk low margins.

Id much rather a net cash company take on unique jobs where they have an advantage and build a reputation for quality instead

Salary deduction guaranteed? No collateral as long as government worker is a safe bet? Many have said and many have been broken.

False assumptions to equate government workers as a guaranteed high quality resource.

If you assume just because it's a government worker then definitely will be a safe bet no need to worry no need collateral, then you deserve to lose every cent of you're investment.

Read deeper into the financial statements, don't get fooled by the nice sounding business introduction or the nice looking covers. For a annual report/qr the important points has always been the last few back pages, the balance sheets, the notes and the errata.
Why don't you read again properly, how much of the loan book breakdown is like. How many percent is loans for corporate financing, how much is for house loans, how much is for personal financing.

READ AGAIN THE NOTES IN DETAIL. HOW SECURE IS THE 20 BILLION IF PERSONAL FINANCING LOANS.

The automative land of 200 million yes secure.

The corporate financing and projected yes secure.

The housing loans yes secure.

The personal financing? I SUGGEST MR CALVINTANENG TO DO MORE STUDY, OTHERWISE HE WILL END UP EAT MORE TALAMT KUEH AT 9 CENTS TO 3.5 CENTS, KPS DROP AND DROP AND DROP AFTER DIVIDEND, AND UZMA FROM 89 CENTS DOWN DOWN DOWN.

WHY DON'T YOU ASK PROPERLY WHAT SECURITY THEY HAVE FOR THE 20 BILLION IN PERSONAL FINANCING LOANS, THE QUALITY OF LOANS AND IS AFFECT ON THE INTRINSIC BOOK VALUE OF MBSB?

if you want the truth do you listen to your pastor Kong hee, management of city harvest? Or the audited accounts of city harvest itself?

You need to use your eyes, ears and brains to invest wisely.

I'm sure the management of city harvest church is right and the entire 99% Singapore government is wrong.

I hope your church members still visit you in the penitentiary.

a billion in revenue this year , 50 million in earnings this quarter, good growth despite the drop in margins. Is the palm oil price drop a temporary or sign or permanence? In my opinion it is temporary due to Western view of Palm oil as a resource. This will recover in due course and prices will definitely go up to 2.5k - 2.8k sooner or later as ql builds more market share. Surimi growth of 30% and 50% is definitely expected to grow even further in next few years and especially far profits expected during the Tokyo Olympics. As for ilf growth, contrast that with earnings forecast from LHI and other poultry suppliers.

The thing about being the lowest cost producer: you can grow market share, bring costs lower and monopolize market while your competitors have to fight at your price level, making big losses or losing market share.

You start to notice what a wonderful company QL is when all its major competitors

Teoseng ( qoq drop 76%)
Leong hup ( drop 76%)
Layhong ( drop 67%)

Are doing badly, and QL is still growing and growing and growing.

It is like that 11,000 hectare Palm oil plantations with 3 mills setting the market price while the smallholder with 200 hectares and doesn't have is own mill having to sell their produce at a much lower rate to the big bully.

I don't see the circumstances changes for the next 10 years.

Results on target? Definitely.

Growth triggers still in play? Of course.

Family mart is like 7-11 a huge volume game that increases profitability the bigger the coverage. With a huge coverage it will be hard to crack. This kind of monopolistic criteria takes time to build up, but when it does, it can mint money for your grand children.

Buy high at 89 cents and keep dropping to 0.675 and can still make 20k? Amazing! Sifu. Whatever you say.

I believe Calvin bought at 80 cents and still holding until now.

On the non performing loans ration, as a comparison, mbsb is at 1.3%, while Hong Leong as an example is at 0.87%.

What did this mean? Taken as an example

Mbsb total 36 billion of loans, non performing is around 468 million every year. 1.3%

Hong leong total 137 billion of loans, non performance of 0.87% is around 1.19 billion.

Using the same ratio, if mbsb grew its b40 loan book ( which is almost impossible to grow further without increasing the NPL and seriously undermining the business).

If you think banks are a guaranteed pot of gold, I invite you to look at the list of defunct and BANKrupt banks in the history of Malaysia and Singapore, and the exact reasons as to what happened. The reason are all the same, foolhardy loans to foolhardy individuals done at greedy rates which exploded when they least expected it.

Good luck in your investing life Calvin.

If I may answer 3iii simple question for Calvin tan to educate him, when I look at Banks for investment I use this mental model as the basis. How many people give me money to borrow ( which determines how strong I am when there is a crisis), who and what forms of lending am I giving ( which determines how safe my loans are), and how high are my non performing loans ( which determines how much real income I actually make, as banks love to delay putting npl losses on their books as it affects profit and loss).

In mbsb case, their biggest customer group is the b40 segment. In latest quarterly financials, they are borrowing 20 billion for PERSONAL FINANCING, 9.9 billion for corporate loans and financing, 5.7 billion for property loans and mortgage financing and 208 million for auto financing. Basically the safest segments property and mortgage is only 5.7 while the riskiest segment is 20 billion.

20 billion in outstanding loans to b40 individuals for PERSONAL FINANCING. Does Calvin tan needs a dictionary to define what personal financing means? In times of crisis, how much of this 20 billion can we collateralise? What is the NPL ( borrowers run away, declare bankruptcy, or straight up not pay) for this 20 billion. Please just don't look at the profits, we need to look at the loan portfolio risk.

Then touch your heart and ask yourself sincerely, if a bank gives you fixed deposit rate of 3.8% and uses it for loans to this group instead of the corporate loans (like lending to topglove,ql,hartalega, Sunway, hapseng, etc), would you really feel comfortable putting money here instead of into backs like Hong Leong, Maybank and public Bank?

>>>>>>>>>>>

3iii Calvin has not enlighten us why this financial institution is trading at below its book value.
31/08/2019 8:29 AM

Added Calvin tan mbsb promotion on 29 August

The portfolio list is here, with the data of his promotion.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

Added Calvin tan mbsb stock selection to his portfolio list. Please advise which of the stocks in your followed lost that you are no longer into so I can edit and adjust your performance. If you have free time, also do advice the percentage of Holdings for each of your held stocks so we can understand your confidence level and belief in each stock.