Stock investment is about managing risk and buying common stocks is already intrinsically risky. People are willing to pay higher multiples for safe, rich and growing businesses.

Rcecap basically borrows money to poor people ( b40 civil servants etc) using a riskier model than elk-desa. Not only can you buy vehicles like motorcycles ( which aeon and elk is doing) which can be auctioned or resold, but rcecap also borrows for riskier ventures like personal loans for renovation, vacation, expenditure which cannot be recouped. On top of that, none of the loans are secured or collateralised unlike a regular loan from public bank, Maybank etc. More importantly, to get their margins, they find less financially adept individuals, and reduce their loan approval criteria.

For a simple explanation: to get their yearly profit of 100 million, rcecap has a loan book of 1.4 billion ( treat this as the production material banks use to make money, more money). The production material comes at a big cost, non performing loans ( basically ppl who didn't play back loans) of between 11% (2011) and 4%(2018).

How safe and secure is that 1.4 billion of loans? That is the 2008 subprime l million dollar question everyone would love to know.

Which is safer: a rich businessman getting a housing loan or buying a new Mercedes?
Or a b40 civil servant earning 1500, getting a 15000 loan to renovate his house?

That is why rcecap is still stuck at pe6.

Banks and money lenders, just like any other business can and will go bankrupt if they are not disciplined.

>>>>>>>

antoniomc27 Guys, why do you think market is paying PE 15 and a PB ratio 1.2 for ELK-DESA (1.66 RM at the time of writing, 50% increase YTD)
and RCECAP is still stuck at PE 6 and PB ratio of 1 ?

No, I negotiated a special rate with minimum 1m of margin brokerage.

To be honest I don't like this rule also. One of my biggest misses of all time was Amazon. Amazon after dot-com crash kept piling in all profits and returns growing the business.

It's like that old children's game: 1 cookie now, or 2 cookies tomorrow.

This rule will automatically exclude those businesses which decided to not eat cookies for 10 years for the whole business.



>>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 21, 2019 9:14 AM | Report Abuse

sifu Philips The two quarters thingy is KYY new golden rule

His old golden rule is Buy stocks that earning next year higher than this year

He has already abandoned this rule but I faithfully hold on to it

I understand none of those companies. Or more accurately, I know what they do, but I have no way of understanding those businesses place in the world, hope competitive they will be compared to China, Taiwan and Japan which produces the same thing at a more expensive price.

But I do know one thing, the biggest reason they win those contracts are due to price, not technology.

The main reason they have a low price is because they are using the tax free period given by MITI, which has a time limit.

When that runs out, how competitive will they be? That is a question I have no idea how to begin guessing.

I don't really like KYY golden rule concept actually, just because revenue and earnings go up for 2 quarters doesn't make it a golden business. It is better to understand what caused the 2 quarters of price up and what the growth triggers are. Kyy makes too many assumptions ( dayang was a huge example where he makes assumptions of hard profit guarantees from the Petronas provisional contracts)

Gkent was very simple. Just remove all the assumptions.
Gkent/mrcb got money to complete lrt3? Yes.
Gkent work startup, in progress and progress claim started? Yes. ( Slight insider information, but not very important)
Gkent guaranteed contract with government? Yes. 16 billion.
Government got money to pay? Yes.
Gkent profitable company with our without lrt3 contract? Yes ( water meter).
Future r&d expenditure and planning? Yes.
Gkent earnings growth? Yes. Cash positive.
Low debt? Yes.
Good sales team? Yes. ( They sold to both najib and LGE unlike other companies).

Just practise the 15 points scuttlebutt from Philip fisher to get a clear picture of the future.

It is like the casino telling you to put your money on red. And tells you what number to put it on.


>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 21, 2019 8:21 AM | Report Abuse

I follow KYY "buy stocks next year earning likely higher than this year"

I think it applies to Gkent

The good thing about buying wonderful companies is the timer horizon. You see 18% drop, I see the price post split is same period 2 years ago is 2.81 with many cents of dividends. I kept buying during that quarter and built up my position this year to varying degrees of success. I probably won't be as successful as those able to buy wonderful stocks and at good timing like Warren buffet, but I'm just a simple salaryman working for the enjoyment of it. I'm still up long term with dividends buying more shares as time passes.

My personal opinion during uncertain times all businesses will have discount days, we will only regret when the price has gone up too late.

I think very few investors in this forum also bought yinson in bulk as I did.


>>>>>

lazycat philip u dispose public bank shares is a good move , i assume u disposed around RM25?
if u din't , the outcome would be same like topglove , -18% :/
15/08/2019 5:49 PM

Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 20, 2019 6:06 PM | Report Abuse

My cost 503

Dumb dumb hold pass to my grandson

>>>>>>

I like this sentiment. I also planning the same thing for QL. Most banks in Malaysia are a good bet due to the high savings culture ( also forced by EPF). Maybank is almost 6.55% (72% payout) due to the bad loans it has buy won't affect structurally. Public Bank is down to 20 from the price I sold at 25. CIMB is a good investment, at 4.8%(42%) payout I'm sure it will keep growing is dividends and earnings in the years to come.

Discount day.

Here is my take on 5G after some further reading.

5G isn’t one technology, but a complex collection of technologies, many of which have not been sorted out by the standards bodies.

In general, however, it’s helpful to oversimplify the explanation about how 5G works. So here goes.

The technologies behind 5G enable the use of very high frequencies. The higher the frequency, the shorter the wavelength. Shorter wavelengths enable faster speeds and lower latency.

But there’s the catch: With shorter wavelengths, the distance between the device and the “tower” has to be much shorter, and the signal has a harder time penetrating through materials such as walls and trees. To get around those obstacles, companies need to deploy vastly more towers than existing technologies do. And companies such as Verizon are using beamforming to direct signals around objects and toward devices.

In order to have reasonable coverage, providers have got to build 5G antennas and towers all over the place, and very close to users. It’s time-consuming and expensive to place these devices everywhere, so the rollout will be slow and uneven.

Because 5G connections suck more power, the chips that power 5G will be designed to favor 4G and kick into 5G mode only when the application demands high bandwidth.

In essence, 5g will take a lot longer ( 10 years+) to really get things together before it becomes something really useful.

We will probably need to wait a lot longer before you can move everything into the cloud and start buying rm50 smartphones ( which only need screen and sound), get smart car access everywhere and all those IoT dreams like Ironman movies.

In essence the jump from 2g to 3g to 4g is quite similar (upgrading of existing cell tower equipment) I know this because I just installed a signal booster in mukah water treatment plant that gave me strong celcom connection locally. It's basically the same device

But the jump from 4g to 5g is on an entirely different scale altogether. It's almost an entirely new technology all together. I'm not sure who will actually be the beneficiary of the new technology or which company will actually be profitable from it long term.

The basic thought process was very simple. Public Bank is a very conservative business, and banking is a very tightly controlled industry, so it is very unlikely for pbb to expand to say Japan or Australia to do business. Meaning that it is very difficult to break into, but at the same time very clear on its growth plan.

PCHEM offers far higher returns ( especially with acquisitions of da Vinci and pic), also a similar stability and cash security ( market leader locally), but with increased risk ( explosion in PIC during commissioning).

Basically, in 5-10 years I see PCHEM revenue and net profit doubling, and I expect to see rm1-2 earnings per year, which means using their 50% payment policy I can get at least rm1 per share dividend yearly.

As PCHEM products is being used is not only olefin, but their target market is growing into fertilizers, skincare and aromatics and specialty chemicals, I think they are on a very nice track to grow into many new markets.

Especially with da Vinci the biggest thing holding them back before was capital. With huge pchem muscle behind them now, I think many interesting growth factors can happen.

>>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip6/193465.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

>>>>>>>>>

The first time Calvin promoted this counter share price was at 80 cents. Let us see and monitor his long term performance using this tracked portfolio.

He only knows how to buy stocks that go down, buy has never bought a stock that went up. That is why he knows all the down trending stocks.

>>>>>>>

Posted by kelvin > Aug 15, 2019 9:25 AM | Report Abuse

gooshen since you know the market, you should be billionaire now right ?

Hi yes, I got lucky on that one. That's why it is good to review the investments you made as well as the ones you didn't make to know the total return. Yes I sold around 25.


>>>>>>>>
8/2019 12:59 PM

lazycat philip u dispose public bank shares is a good move , i assume u disposed around RM25?
if u din't , the outcome would be same like topglove , -18% :/

Hi please not in my portfolio thread. I want to keep this one clean and constructive.

It is because of people like this that I can make money in stock market. When everyone start looking down on Malaysia is when I turn 1 million into 5 million.

Mark my words, those who wait for the Islamic Revolution are those who miss buying stocks at cheap prices.

I learned my lesson from the 1997 hongkong China-British fear, not realising wonderful business will continue no matter what.

I wasn't as smart as KYY back then, and thought the end was near for Hong Kong.

But we learn new things every day.

This remark by i3lurker is making me consider increasing my margin account and going full ham.

>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by i3lurker > Aug 15, 2019 10:54 AM | Report Abuse

beneath the rock bottom is liquid metal bottom.

ALL western investors are bypassing Malaysia due to the high probability of Islamic Revolution coz now we have a racist Ayatollah sponsored, morally supported and helped by Tun Dr M himself.

Who is stupid to invest when Islamic Revolution gonna happen very soon?

It is more a case of samur is the biggest monopoly this side of sea, where so many Palm oil plantations rely on urea fertilizer which no other competitor in scale and price. Which is why I always laugh when people think pchem is a one horse trick.

The bigger trick is when aromatics and specialty chemicals from pic and da Vinci acquainted comes online, for a good revenue and net profit growth trajectory 10 years into the future.

>>>>>>>

I notice almost half profit from fertiliser

Exactly, PCHEM is paying me 250k (11 cents dividend) to wait. At rm7, I am more than happy to do so, especially after the completion of da Vinci acquisition and PIC rollout. 2020 will be a wonderful year, with Olympics in Japan ( QL big beneficiary) gkent( LRT3 revenue incoming) and many others.

CIMB is a good play, actually almost all stocks now are downgraded because of market worries about trade war and whatnot. In the long run, these temporary effects of just another way of giving you a discount day.

Thong Guan seems interesting, let me study it a bit.

You call that an official track record? Do you know what a portfolio is?

Stockraider does not have a trackable record, only bullshit. He everyday say only, but cannot verify.

Myvi driver wants to talk mathematics, let's talk chaos theory and probability analysis.

Let's try it out, shall we?

Stockraider has guaranteed 31st August 2019 as a date where INSAS will hit 0.9 cents. You have 1 million which MUST BE INVESTED.

Option A. You buy an option that pays you 10x if INSAS share price is above 0.9 cents but you lose EVERYTHING if it doesn't hit 0.9.

Option B. You buy an option that pays you 2x if INSAS share is above 0.8, but lose EVERYTHING if INSAS share price is below 0.8.

Option C. You buy PCHEM to get a dividend of 11 cents on 28 August 2019 at 7.30, but have to lose the difference of the share price at 31st August 2019.

What is the most probable action where you have the most profit to gain, but at the same time the best protection of your capital.

You can try this exercise and view your results at the end of the month to understand why Warren buffets golden rule is

1. Never lose money.
2. Refer rule 1.

By understanding capital risk, opportunity risk and business risk you become a better investor.





>>>>>>>>
Of course this sohai, says pchem hitting above Rm 10.00 is a big deal but mathematically is not mah...!!

Wish you luck!

I won't argue with you on that, as both are business that I don't understand well and so will not invest in. In all honesty my thought process was vitrox had a bigger base of customers, a bigger casual and cash flow levels than penta, and better long term mix especially with customers involved in 5g. I did miss the fact The net profit is higher because of the tax free status which is ending soon.

Most importantly when I value risk, i mean business risk. You cannot honestly say pchem business is riskier than hibiscus.

A very simple question. If Sabah shell was so good and profitable, why did they sell it to hibiscus in the first place? For an asset which is nearing send of life in resources, hope secure are the oil barrels and the price? That is risk.

>>>>>>>


lazycat i don't think hibiscus is riskier than pchem

i remember early this year i ask your opinion about penta, u seem interested ,but u said vitrox is better, well, penta almost double it share price now and it did not pay any dividend, while vitrox stagnant :/
14/08/2019 8:10 PM

The smartest decision would be to pick the stock with the lowest risk and highest upside. For hibiscus to go from rm1 to rm3 a lot of assumptions need to be made, whole pchem trading above rm10 is assured. In the meanwhile, hibiscus has never given out a dividend, while pchem operates on very high net margins, a healthy level of dividend payouts( below 50%), and it is a market leader with a very strong brand and customer base. The risk involved is so low I am willing to risk millions, my wife retirement fund, my own retirement fund, my father in law retirement fund on this investment.

How much is your risk appetite for hibiscus? Are you willing to put your entire family fortune on hibiscus?

Is the business model strong enough and the company wonderful enough that you feel confident enough to bet the farm on it?

If you think making gains from rm 1-3 with a high risk in the business is worthwhile, then you are smarter than me. I prefer making rm7-10, with 30-40 cents dividends every year consistently with a company with strong balance sheet and very low risk of losing money.

I see, your investment horizon is 6 months?, If that is the case, you should probably be looking at other portfolios with higher risk appetites. As I am looking to buy strong businesses with good fundamentals, I try to stay away from companies with volatile speculative share price movements and swingy business models. If you are interested in short term jumps of 20-30% I suggest you to look at other portfolios and investors. For me, new businesses, financially unstable companies and microcap stocks will have those big jumps, followed by big drops in share price.

Also my year to date result is based on starting in 2019, when almost all of my stocks have had big climbs in share price ( QL doubled last year, topglove,). Yinson this year finally found it's tender confirmation up from rm4 to rm7 ytd. My new held stocks is gkent, pchem, both of which are waiting for results from their billion dollar projects in 2020.( PIC commercialization in 4Q 2019, lRT3 revenue to realize in 1Q 2020).

It would probably be a good idea to come back 1-2 years from now to revisit my results.

Another exercise which I think all young investors to do is not only to look at the returns of their current picks, but also review the returns of the picks not bought but researched, and also to compare vs Bursa market returns.

That gives you an idea of the real performance of your stock portfolio.

During the US CHINA trade war, I find it hard to judge any stock performance of a company fairly.

Huawei is one of China biggest companies, but at the same time the trade war is hurting then a lot today. But in the future 5-10 years from now? Huawei is the cheapest and most efficient 5G manufacturer in the market with a very very strong R&D team. If you judge Huawei returns on today result, you would be making a mistake.

Ask I can say is: enjoy the discount day while it lasts.

I rarely look okay short term results, but concentrate more on their long term opportunities. Their huge cash hoard, their excellent acquisition of da Vinci and ability to leverage capital to grow the specialty chemicals division as well as production of PIC next year will ensure that long term, buying at 7.12 and averaging down would be an excellent decision.

Bought 200k shares at 7.12, averaged down on margin and enjoying my dividend yield. I owe Donald Trump dinner. His invented trade war and market uncertainty has given me a buying opportunity to build up my position in pchem. I ended up paying 7.01 for my block of PCHEM shares, amazing discount day, with 11 cents dividend.

Hopefully more discount days for PCHEM to come, all the while management it's moving towards commercialization of PIC in 4Q, ( killing overpriced Lotte) and doubling revenue in the coming years, acquisition of da Vinci ( opening up their loreal, Korean and Japanese skincare aromatics market), which will increase 5% to their earnings next year.

Why spend the effort to be contrarian when one can just be a part of an amazing company?

Looks like I don't have to do a vlog for icon8888 anytime soon on pchem.

Picked up pchem at 7.12@200k shares today on margin.

Hard sell hard sell! Good job. Kwap buys a stock you like, you will say kwap smart. Kwap sells a stock you like, you say kwap is a moron. In this case I'm sure you will say all the institutions selling uzma are blind fools.

Interesting concept. But I believe that bitcoin is accepted far less around the world than visa and MasterCard. In terms of exchange of goods and services, credit cards are far more efficient currently than bitcoin, which I believe when ask the bitcoins are mined, the transaction costs will be more than Visa.

I don't think bitcoin is a currency, if every transaction done on bitcoin is fine in relation to a real world currency.

No one ever buys out sells bitcoin. It is always bitcoin as a measure of value in comparison with the USD. More of a conversion of value for acceptable transaction, with no underwriting value or protection of the bitcoin value. I could buy a Bitcoin at 17k, and tomorrow it would drop to 6k and the next 11k. This huge variance is a very difficult upsell as a currency. A currency truly only works if it is stable and resilient to problems of supply and demand. A store of value works best if the asset is backed by real world usage demand.

Bitcoin will never be accepted every where in the world for the simple fact that there are still many many places where you will not have internet or social engineering to facilitate ready use of Bitcoin.

In fact, the world first currency to be accepted anywhere in the world is the British pound, followed by the us dollar.

To be honest, I am sure crypto currency will be a thing. I just don't see why Bitcoin will be it.

>>>>>>

It could be the world's first currency accepted any where in the world.

What is a currency?
It just takes two people to be willing to accept it in exchange for goods and services.

Hi what is the basis of this assumption? Why not 2 trillion, 10 trillion or 100? If 10 years ago bitcoin was worth 1 USD, it should be just as easy to believe that it can reach 100k or 200k per bitcoin level, no? But the main driver for this would clearly be speculative activities correct? As bitcoin itself does not generate any asset classes or consumable products.

>>>>>>>

My take is that Bitcoin would eventually reach 1 trillion dollars in market cap.

Which is around the $50k level. ( Probably in 1-2 years

Always something to learn every day.

I'm also waiting for your vlog with one hand on the steering wheel and the other contrarian buying Lotte at 4.15, and both eyes watched it down to 2.50. What's the plan? do we buy? Hold? Cutloss?

Interestingly,

Lotte current market cap now at 6 billion. Revenue of 4 cumulative quarters of 9 billion, 380 million in earnings.

It's IPO was 15 billion in 2017. Revenue of 8 billion, 1.3 billion earnings, with plans to upgrade older plants.

Even more interesting when they privatised titan chemical back in 2011, it had revenues of 6.3 billion, 300 million in earnings (5%), and a takeover price of 4 billion back then.

At 5% margins, how do we invest around this? But facts around this volatile company is obviously useless.

>>>>>>>>

Icon8888 thought you have nothing more to learn in life ?
13/08/2019 7:49 AM

My understanding is there is a few hard truths to Bitcoin platform. Here is my fundamentals understanding. Please help me to revise.

1) There are 21 million bitcoins in total, which once fully mined becomes the control limit. However the entire system runs on Bitcoin miners. Currently Bitcoin miners make money from the Bitcoin rewards of mining. After mining is effectively over, the only money to make is from transaction charges. At this point, the transaction costs will either escalate to banking levels so miners will stay, or miners will leave and stop processing of bitcoins, causing the system to be slower, more expensive to process, and causing problems to Bitcoin platform itself.

2) there is also 1 million+ bitcoins floating which is unaccounted for and believed to being to the Satoshi group. There is a possibility the hard drive and password was lost, but also a likely possibility they were behind the crash and dumping of the bitcoin bubble as they cashed out at 20k USD. Will this happen again? As there is no accountability in Bitcoin( with counbase, Mt gox, and subsequent bans and crash of Bitcoin depositories) trust is a huge issue going forward.

3) until today, no one is able to calculate or define an INTRINSIC value for bitcoin. What is your take on it? How much do you value Bitcoin and why?

Cheers and thanks for your reply.

Hi I am very interested in this sphere but I lack much understanding about it. Can you enlighten me?


3) IF Bitcoin is a "scam" and its really bad, why has it been around for over 10 years. Why are the smart money into Bitcoin?
A famous quote once said: "Don't follow what smart money says. Follow where the smart money is"

>>>>
If Bitcoin is good, why are ICOs being started almost every other day with it's open block chain application? Why is Bitcoin itself forking? Bitcoin is the first, but it's technology is very time consuming and expensive to mine, store and deliver ( compared to many new coins like etherium, and new systems). Bitcoin is the first ( like altavista, netscape, rocketmail), but it's it the most efficient? ( Like google) 10 years from now, will Bitcoin still exist? Or will another more efficient and faster ( and easier to use) and more government friendly.

2) It is an asset that is not tied to the GDP / Earnings / Economy / Political Influence . ( Unlike stocks/ commodities / bonds/ etfs/ unit trust/ property )

>>>>>>>>

Https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_bitcoin_by_country_or_territory

Bitcoin is banned in China, and I suspect sooner or later china will either produce it's own crypto currency, or wechat ( tencent) alipay (Alibaba), Uber/grabpay, Facebook credit, bigpay(airasia), will all produce their own currency platform. The biggest reason for owning Bitcoin is it's ease of use, but in the end it is still tied to your local currency ( you need myr to buy btc after all, it doesn't stand alone like to USD or myr which is tied to the country). Wechat becomes a very efficient model of fast efficient online payments and wallets with huge growing traction of accepted merchants while Bitcoin is being banned in so many countries. What is the possibility of future fast transfer and payment models following WeChat model instead of Bitcoin model which antagonize so many countries?


1) Bitcoin existed since 2008 and is one of the best performing asset in the world.

>>>>>>>>>>>

Bitcoin also had one of the biggest bubbles and crashes in history of a commodity that is tied to nothing ( although the tulip crash might have been far spectacular) . It is the purest form of derivatives, where almost every single buyer is buying based on speculation that one day Bitcoin will be an efficient and powerful tool of internet economy.

But if you were to look into the intrinsic value of Bitcoin

Hi value88,

How can you foresee that there will not be any repeat of the tragedies of this year? From my knowledge of the tuaran farms in Sabah for LAYHONG,

1. The bird culling loss may reoccur because the farm conditions have not changed at all, no additional health upgrades and controls similar to the QL farms on the other side, meaning all they were doing was culling with no planning for future issues.

2. Feed costs will reduce? I highly doubt it, as LAYHONG doesn't have a feed mill production business, and trade war will cause many unnecessary costs which will affect everyone in different ways.

3. I would wait until the nh operations actually turn a profit before being so confident about something that is currently losing money.


>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by value88 > Aug 11, 2019 2:28 PM | Report Abuse

In FY19 (ends in Mar'19), LayHong had the worst year in past 5 years mainly due to RM15mil bird culling in Sabah farm, uptrend in corn and soya bean prices, i.e. feed cost, and operating loss in new JV NH plant.
I foresee the worst is over for LayHong and its performance is almost certain to improve in FY20 (Apr19 - Mar20) due to the following positive factors :
I) No more bird culling loss
ii) Feed cost has reduced due to recent US-China trade war
iii) The new NH Foods operation should turn loss in FY19 to gain in FY20 when new plant's utilisation rate increases and start-up cost reduces.

Hi there sohai, can you repost where I said INSAS not worth 0.67? I distinctly remember my opinion is the long term growth of INSAS business units is limited, but I have no idea how the short term share price will perform.

But of course you can say whatever you want,

Just like another sohai I know who promises INSAS share price will got 90 cents by national day 31st ogos.

Oh wait, you are the same sohai.

Sorry for wasting my time.

>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Aug 12, 2019 1:08 PM | Report Abuse

PHILIP,
U HAVE NO RIGHT TO ADVICE PEOPLE WHAT PRICE TO SELL ABOVE RM 1.00 AS U SAY INSAS NOT WORTH RM 0.67 MAH....!!

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > Aug 12, 2019 1:00 PM | Report Abuse

Why sell at rm1? Stockraider and sslee hold so long due to valuation at 2.54, they should at least ask for NTA maximum discount 20%, request them buy shares go at rm2 log!

Why sell at rm1? Stockraider and sslee hold so long due to valuation at 2.54, they should at least ask for NTA maximum discount 20%, request them buy shares go at rm2 log!

The term circumstances is the difference between making and losing money. Temporary change in circumstance is just another reason to invest, a permanent change in circumstance ( like LAYHONG) is a big reason to just stay away.

I bought pchem at 8.15-8.33, with top up at 7.29. with dividend of 18 cents, I have very little to worry about from a strong profitable company.

Somebody bought shares a 4.15 then watched it crash to 2.63, you blaming complicated share market and volatility?

I'm waiting for you to vlog first, so we can see how much you can scramble...


>>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/192060.jsp

As a contrarian, I scrambled in the opposite direction, picking up some shares at RM4.15.

My friend visited this mall and posted up a vlog in it.

https://youtu.be/s5c7HYg5NuI

my advice to Herbert and icon8888 is to practise less quantitative investing and do more qualitative investing instead.

Just one visit into this mall told me all I needed to know about GADANG and how much in debt they are. How to make life less complicated and avoid volatile business? Stay far away from companies like these...


Big capital gain on the way my ASS!

A very good example of icon8888 concept of volatility and making things unnecessarily complicated.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/144190.jsp

He promoted gadang in January of 2018 ( I assume after he bought stocks) with some very nice write up and projections of things that has not occurred yet. So many assumptions, if he only waited until the mall actually completed and up and running he would have been able to see if the results matched. He assumed customers and tenants would come flocking in to tampoi. He assumed mall management would be good. He assumed business would be booking. He assumed there wouldn't be an influx of new malls into JB. He assumed people actually enjoy buying overpriced goods and eating expensive food in malls all the time ( and online purchasing would not be a thing). He assumed paying for expensive parking would be a fun thing for the family.

That was assumption. So many assumptions.

This is fact.

https://says.com/my/lifestyle/johor-capital-21-city-mall

Business is bad, tenants are poor. Gadang not vomiting money it growing money from trees like his ASSUMPTIONS.

If he had just waited for the sure, safe thing, ( public bank, Hong leong, ql, Nestle) companies with factual results, strong business model, conservative and good management, good cash hoard, he would have done so much better and would not have so much white hair.

But what to do lah, he say he make tons of money and laughing to the bank, Herbert is a billionaire, everybody doing well in stock market all the time, all I can say is congratulations and good luck!

LAYHONG, here are the facts.

Oversupply of DOC and eggs? Facts.
Only one business model? Fact.
Very low margins, high competition? Fact.
Disease and illness ? Fact.
Poor growth history? Fact.
Not market leader? Fact.
Lackluster management? Fact.
No expansion plans? Fact.
Poor share price performance? Fact.

There are so many assumptions to make to predict LAYHONG success, I find it so hard to even try.

Minimized assumptions, maximized facts.

What are facts for pchem?

PIC completion: fact.
Increase of revenue from production of PIC: guaranteed.
High net profit from sustainable business advantage: fact.
20% PAT: fact.
No losing quarters in last 10 years: fact.
Consistent yearly growth: fact.
Cash hoard: fact.
Resilient business model: fact.
China trade war temporary: fact. ( Until they dump Trump).
Pchem market leader in sea? Fact.
Business model resistant to disruption? Fact.

So many facts, I can minimize assumptions.

Circumstances change is not overnight. You can always see it coming if you look at the long term.

Those who can't will always give excuses and promote random walk theory, and efficient market theory.

Your point is there is no point. You find life is complicated and business volatile because you choose to invest in volatile companies like armada and Lotte. Loss making, warrants, gambling. So your point of view is clouded by your investments.

You choose to make your life complicated.

I just make my life simple and buy wonderful companies with consistent growth and minimized risks and maximized opportunity.

I buy pchem and yinson instead.

My point is I choose to make my life simple and consistent.


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 11, 2019 7:00 AM | Report Abuse

Is buying pchem based on facts or assumptions ?

Herbert, you must learn 2 things.

Take your time when buying stocks. No need to buy or trade everyday. Making money is about being right, not being active. If you missed in 1000 stocks you won't lose money, it is only when you buy that you take a risk. So be patient and be very very sure if the company and minimize as much as possible all your assumptions but sticks to facts.



2. Never fall in love with your stocks. If business had not been doing well for last 3 years, it won't suddenly explode up and do well, especially if commodities. Most importantly, if the signs show that business will not be good in the future for entire INDUSTRY, then you should be very careful.

You will never get anywhere with your investment technique raider. You will forever be stuck with your myvi if you try to spam your stocks in other people's counters and blogs if you don't understand what you are buying.

I feel you very sad. Hope you learn how to do INVESTMENTs one day that don't crash.

I comment on my own held stocks, who say don't work? I already make money holding it for long long time, your INSAS say 90 cents by 31st August how leh? Bring ppl to Holland? Stick to your own stocks la sohai, post your stocks in other counters for what? So you can upgrade your myvi to Japanese car?

Hi stockraider, your INSAS 90 cents by 31st August how? Any news?

If your guarantee doesn't work as your promotion, can you stop commenting on my blog and fcuk off? You keep drowning other posts, whole your prediction never work out.

Lanchester law of linear combat:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanchester%27s_laws#Lanchester's_linear_law

Basically what does this mental model describe: the bigger the force, the lower the attrition and casualty rate.

In business economics we can apply it with this mental model: whenever you consider businesses, you need to understand what is the minimum size required to "fight" a battle with competitors, how big you need your business to be to have an uneven competitive advantage, and at what point does the business size start being disadvantageous in competing with peers.

An interesting thought process in when too big is not good, too small is not good, but capturing a business at just the right size and time.

The mathematical formula created by lanchester to calculate army sizes and attrition rates are worth considering indeed.

Business itself is a form of economical warfare.

We can apply this to the situation of

LHI
LAYHONG
TEOSENG
QL

Within the agriculture sphere

Or

Maybank
Rhb
Pbb
Cimb

Within the banking sphere

To have a deeper understanding of how predict these businesses 5-10 years from now in relation to each other.

I can think of 10 stocks that fit KYY "golden rule", but are pieces of bird droppings.

Market is always acting volatile. The same people that value npchem at v70 billion a few months back, now suddenly value pchem at 50 billion. Results are not even out yet.