is there anything of material change to look forward to in insas business moving forward? or are they doing the same exact thing as the last 7 years?

When one has no stock acumen or any form of stock analysis that matters, they will resort to trolling as usual instead of sharing and implementing knowledge. And we wonder why Malaysia is going down the drain. Maybe one day when CharlesT actually starts writing a stock valuation or analysis I will read to better understand him. As it is now, no difference between CharlesT and Shrek. Both are pure comedy.
>>>>>>
CharlesT

Windy1974 u like rich old guy ah?

I think Philip's wife is still around

Wonder how high it will go if latest qr they make surprise profit compare to all the competitors?
>>>>>>
Wonder how low it will drop if latest qr also GG n asp keeps lower low ??

Very easy to say on hindsight, but how many actually put their money where their mouth is and bought double or triple the shares they started with and averaged down? Very few I wonder.

Closed trade on mynews jump, sold at 0.535 over the past few days

Don't be silly. It was buying cheap on margin before when prices were too low. Now that prices is up then reduce margin exposure is normal. Margin is a double edged sword. One should never use margin to average up. For me I use it to average down when prices are good.
>>>>>
AlsvinChangan

Fundamental investor become trader?

Sold some harta to reduce margin exposure

Don't forget to add serba dinamik to that row of ducks. Obviously along the years ( just like my portfolio) I do not only choose those stocks, but include a few others as well.

The difference this time around is that the majority of my money is in solid strong companies ( like pchem) and minimized in companies like serba ( which I managed to cut and save what was left). If anything my portfolio is far more real than your imaginary jho low life where you service high networth individuals and cut profit in gdex at just the right time and buy other unnamed stocks just as they are making profits.

Let's face it: my "imaginary" stock performance over the last 3 years results are far far better than your "hidden" performance of your imaginary stocks.

True?

>>>>>
i3lurker

what are the odds ?
except extreme fantastic super duper hyper good educated cutting edge forward looking skillsets that someone will actually choose Aokam Perdana, Ekran and Renong bhd just like ducks in a row?

Noted and thanks. For something that you believe will be very exceptional good results didn't seem like you have much conviction in the company. As do I as well.
>>>>>
Good morning Philip,
I only put in abt 4% of my portfolio into HRC and warrants (betting purpose)

How much % exposure of your portfolio are you putting into HRC Lee?
>>>>>>
HRC Q3 EPS and Balance Sheet will be exceptional good.

You mean trolling is a relevant skillset?

I don't think you have ever given a single stock recommendation that worked before

Is that what you keep telling your high net worth clients to do gdex boy? Wow.

You sound so smart until we look at your results and comments to date. You talk as if you are serving high networth individuals and doing business deals etc etc. But the fact is, you can barely even get your facts straight. When you were talking so much nonsense on gloves were when I did my largest purchases at 1.6+. And now you come back with your nonsense again as if you have any more credibility.

Just go back to your cave gdex boy, you really know nothing about investing or stocks other than to talk bad

>>>>>
i3lurker

sslee
you are so smart !!

For me the easiest way to look at insas is to look at the entry for A9 in the quarterly report and just look at the growth of revenue, earnings, assets and liabilities. You will quickly find that they have not been growing revenues and assets of the subsidiaries well at all over the long period, which has contributed to why a 2 billion "net worth" company being valued at "500" million. Since you know the owners will never want to capitalize on the arbitrage, why should you?

And if you look at the business itself, do you really want to own it?

You are still looking at price. Imagine if you took out share price out of the equation, you will find that the only reliable guide for investing as a MINORITY shareholder is gains from the growth of earnings, revenue and dividends.

Take for example my ownership of pchem. By simply holding on, buying when the price is low, and selling to remove my margin costs, my basis cost has already dropped to around rm4.1. at this price, without doing anything at all, the dividend I am collecting at 48 cents is enough to double my balance capital in 7 years. All without doing anything but sitting and waiting

Take for example astra agro lestari. If you were to look at this company and not be able to have the ability to look at the share price but just buy offhand from the owner a piece of the business, how would you value it? Definitely you would not be looking at just the plantation land, but you would concentrate on how much the boss is making and how much he will be distributing to you the shareholder. You would be asking for a seat as a director for a monthly salary, and a yearly dividends based on earnings. And you would be closely looking to see how much the business is growing year by year, how much land they are acquiring for planting, how much they are paying for replanting, and how they are performing compared to peers like sinar mas agro and provident. That is how you decide which business to buy.

Now do the same to insas and bplant. How would you justify buying back more insas and bplant? Is their business growing year after year? Is their earnings and dividends growing year after year? If not, is their landbank and business assets growing yearly to increase their long term returns?

Forget about share price for a long moment and just concentrate on the business fundamentals. Unless it is a total fraud company like serba which forged their results, you will be able to use your own managerial and business sense to decide on the investment.

Or better yet, tell me what stocks to buy instead that you think is better than pchem right now

Better mind your own business, and take care of your own money first before telling others what to do with theirs.
>>>>>>
Investmalaysiaa

Better sell your pchem. Otherwise your paper gain become less and less

Not good. Elections coming soon. Stocks will have a field day tomorrow

When ARBB erp profit margins are higher and faster "growth" than SAP the worlds biggest and most efficient ERP player you really need to ask the question... HOW?

why doesn't the clients use solutions which is cheaper and better directly from:

SAP
MICROSOFT
EPICOR
IFS
ORACLE

why are those thailand companies not using solutions from the big reliable companies which are cheaper than ARBB offerings? Are they that silly, corrupted or ARBB solutions that powerful instead?
>>>>>>
EastWestTalker

When everyone look bad, Mr Market will always feedback the different answer. Arbb is full potential and full flash erp player. Worth for the time

ok, remember this. if you were in real life and talking to someone face to face, would you act the same way? it is funny how people can be so rude and insulting when hiding behind the computer and be so respectful and nice when face 2 face.

Not my problem. The other admin kicked you out for criticizing and bullying other readers. The best advise for a public space is always to be respectful and not confrontational. The goal is to learn new things, not to troll.

Whatever you would not want done against you in public, you should not do to others.

Hope you learn something new.

As for mynews, I own both QL and mynews. One is for trading thanks to another member in my telegram group sharing, the other is my long term holdings which are still growing it's revenue every quarter. As usual trading is only small amounts, while the investing portion is much bigger
>>>>>>
enigmatic [hodl your shares]

Can we know the reasoning behind your sale of RHONEMA? And why MYNEWS, which has similar business model to QL's FamilyMart? A bit curious here.

3 days ago

I posted on the transactions tab of why I sold rhonema. In my opinion as their main business model was reselling animal health products from foreign companies like CEVA for the swine and bovine cure and selling it in Malaysia, as well as importing Australian cows and products to grow with kulim their costs would limit competitiveness with incumbents for a very long time.

As I realized that their business model didn't pivot fast enough they are still among those companies that buy foreign and sell local, which is the total opposite of the business that I am looking tob invest into in this juncture with the high inflation and exchange rate. USA is telling you they want to be uncompetitive, so we should be looking to buy those companies that export to USA instead as they will be very well rewarded in the long run

So far I like the stock as a trade idea. We will see.

If one sees any more interesting trade ideas following the same principles that I have outlined, please forward it to me for more reading and understanding. Thanks

You still have replied my messages to invest my money with your sure win trading strategy, why? Is it talk and post a lot, but when push comes to shove you don't have the results to show for it?
>>>>>>
NB: if U ever try to do research in FA, do make sure it is purely accurate 1st, n oso complete = then only u can win BIG in stocks.,.

Joined jack in his belief that CU as a business can turnaround. I like the idea, worried about the debt, but they have many things that can be easily improved to gain profitability. More stores, less wastage, more efficiency. Bought some at 0.41-0.43 @400k shares

But Lee he has a point. Why is hengyuan nta dropping? Is it fake numbers?

No problems.

But I'm still curious, as you seem to have very high conviction in this stock.

How much are you deploying for this company, 20% of portfolio? 50%, 100%? Or 150% with margin

Firstly. Pchem has 25% profit margins. Which is far more than every other comparable major petrochemical company.

Secondly 50% of pchem revenues comes from urea or fertilizer. They have an ungodly gross margins on fertilizer. Why?

Thirdly, neither basf, the Koreans, Japanese or the Americans have a major petrochemical processing center in South East Asia. Which means with the delay and difficulty and distance of transportation and logistics, the cheese stands alone.

Neither lctitan has anywhere near the profit margins (-5%)
Or Dow Inc (11%)
Or BASF (7%)
Or Formosa petrochemical (8%)

Now you start to understand why I am investing in pchem?
They serve South East Asia, the fastest growing economy in the world right now with Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia.

They have gross margins of almost 32%, name me another petrochemical company in the world that has that.

They have huge growth potential in the market, with long term TAM ( after adding the new businesses) of 100 billion ringgit a year. And the transparency and clarity of earnings stretch 10 years with the number of FID projects they are doing.

It is 50% of my portfolio.

For your conviction in hengyuan, how big a space does it hold on yours?

>>>>>>>
probability

HY makes margin from refining, independent on oil price

PCHEM only has the competitive advantage as long oil price is high and help by petronas, the moment price goes down - it loses its competitive advantage if i am not mistaken

Hi probability,
In my opinion this is a very valid risk which is why I do not invest in hengyuan. Yes you may be right and you will make handsomely on the hedging that hy does and hopefully they pay a dividend or share buyback.

However what are the risks involved? For me there is one hundred percent certainty that in the long run ( or short) their hedging will cause them to lose money.

Yes they may make tons of money in the short term. And I'm sure you will have great success with it.

But for me if I am looking at the long term aspects of the business, I do not like how the management is running it.

In any case I wish you luck.

For me, as you will know I almost never agree with stockraider on anything. But for this, he and I see the same thing.

Take it as you will.

Good luck on your investments sir.

>>>>>>>>
probability

ALREADY EXPLAINED how the derivative loss figure in OCI comes about mah!!

NEED A FUNCTIONING BRAIN TO UNDERSTAND Lorrr!!!

One of those 2 does not gamble with the price of oil.

>>>>>
AlsvinChangan

SELL PCHEM BUY HENGYANG ?

3 hours ago

How long will insas stay irrational before it reflects is true value? Is it possible that people can be blind for 7 years?
>>>>>>

Sslee

I can only say, Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent/rational.

7 hours ago

How many plantation and steel stocks have family mart type of business and export internationally their products?

>>>>>
CharlesT

Why Steel stocks n Plantation stocks at low single digit PE........

7 hours ago

The simplest basic form of understanding is to go to your relatives and and friends who own gas stations and talk to them.

Start from big picture.

They suffer from 2 issues: first is the low profits which is single digits rates, and coupled with high volatile volume. Which is not as consistent as you would think.

The second issue is in storage: when oil prices are low, they are not allowed to stock more. When oil prices are high, they still have to sell at the same price and absorb. Since they cannot do hedging and profits are so small, they actually have to do other things to make money like getting it from convenience store and renting to maintenance and services.

As for oil traders who make hedging and buying and trading of oil as their main source of income, can you really use PE and consistency as a way of calculating profit and loss? Doing that with noble group, hin Leong etc would have been suicide.

Why then would you want to take so much risk in your investment on unknowns?

The main principle remains: why is shell selling their refineries and getting out of Malaysian market refining and gas station business?

Your last posting on tguan also scolding other investors on their comments on tguan. And yet you sell without a peep, make a " profit" and go along your merry way.

Who is the hypocrite here?

At least I am consistent. When I buy I say. When I sell I say. More importantly my core ownership in QL and pchem and yinson are still those which I have held on over the years without selling out, still making good money every year, good dividends every year, and making more and more revenue and retained earnings every year in growth.

Why sell my Rolex just for small profit? When the time comes to buy it back, no more chance to get at old price.

>>>>>>
Stock: [TGUAN]: THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BHD

2022-02-25 18:37 | Report Abuse

@auditorandconsultant

luckily no one bought into your bull crap, I hoped. Tuneupro QR like shit, I never bat an eye to this crap company before. My conviction to Tguan for a holding period of at least 5 years remains. Looking forward for a record high profit.

At least otb has a stock recommendation in his list and has a reason for selection. This is Stock forum after all and we get to actually learn things. He even has PORTFOLIO so we can see his picks and we can judge how it performs.

You on the other hand, don't have a PORTFOLIO, talk bad about other people's stock picks and post no analysis of your own, and more importantly there one you talk about the most which is tguan, you don't even hold and quietly sell "for a profit" somehow and someway without commenting.

So what stocks are you actually holding or have analysed now?

Do something useful for once in your life instead of being a troll.

Do share your new stock analysis. At least then you can start criticizing others.

You are like that fat kid sitting on the couch at home everyday talking to the TV about how football players should be doing things differently. Ironic isn't it?

My recommendation is to understand the industry.

Shell sold their refining assets to hengyuan.
Shell sold their exploration assets to hibiscus.

And today shell is finally able to sell their Brunei assets to Petronas ( if the agreement pulls through).

When did shell sell if they can make so much money? That is a very interesting question to ask.

What is shell not selling? Shell chemicals. Why? Now that becomes a very interesting question indeed.

But back to stock raider clearly defined answer: you cannot use PE to measure hengyuan earnings and long term viability. Any approach to use quarterly earnings to define the value of the share price is just a dangerous laxative.

Mid term trade I have no idea. But I'm convinced long term hengyuan is not viable


>>>>>>
I also recommend you to buy Hengyuan since you can buy so much of Pchem.

But being not so smart my goal then becomes easier.

Find companies that are producing in myr. Sell internationally in USD (4.5). Are good enough to compete on global stage. ROE better than peers in the same industry. And then monitor them.

When the Price is attractive enough, buy.

For me the game then becomes about collecting "Rolex" companies that appreciate in value over time instead of trying to "time" the market perfectly.

Otb I am not saying your strategy is wrong, more I am saying I'm not smart enough to understand trading to make it a big part of my investing strategy (I do try though, you will find me trying to trade hiaptek as much as the next guy)

For me profit is never the most important criteria, it is risk. For you based on TA selling at 10 and buying back at 8.7 may be profit, but for me I find it impossible to know exactly what price movement and more importantly, when will it happen. If we are honest, if it is so easy to calculate, then we would be able to consistently use TA to analyze jaks and hiaptek efficiently. More importantly, if we can use TA with accuracy, we could put 50% of the portfolio into buying hengyuan, or even 100% of portfolio into buying it.

The concept is simple, as sums get bigger and bigger, it becomes harder and harder to trade efficiently.

For me it is simple, as harta price goes lower and lower, my risk in owning it becomes lower and lower.

I just have to make sure of 3 things.
1. Is harta a wonderful company?
2. Is the management of harta good and are they shareholder friendly?
3. Am I paying a discount to existing company value and future earnings?

If the answer is yes, then I buy. If I have money and the answer is still yes, then I buy more. So it becomes easier to allocate future money into buying that good stock idea,

>>>>>>>
I did buy Pchem and I sold all around 10.00.
Based on TA chart, I will buy back around 8.70 in the next few days if I can catch them.
To you the profit is small, but to me a gain is still a gain.

I do seriously think about this. Which is why I am not touching hengyuan at all.


>>>>>>>
probability

you take out dividend, this stock is trading at 4.50 now

It has delivered EPS even better than what was estimated and yet, purely because of wrong perception on the meaning of the two clauses below, market is thinking it will revert back to its earlier earnings.

In terms of trading opportunity, I'm sure you are far more capable than I am. But similar to kyy, I worry about the idea of using fundamental analysis over a assumed future value of stocks to determine your trading buy call. As you know when speculative buys based on a few quarters pushed the entire company to unsustainable market cap and the subsequent crash.

For me I just choose to stay away for a simple basic business reason.

Does hengyuan/shell have a competitive advantage in Malaysia over Petronas, petronm?

Do they have a refining cost advantage that would allow them to take market share?

Are they able to export their goods internationally and compete globally in China/Korea/Japan etc?

Do they have superior management that allows them to upgrade gas stations to the newest euro compliancy at a far cheaper price than their competitors?

Is their barrel production constantly growing year after year? Are they building more refineries? Do they have the cash to build new refineries?

For me those are the basic blocks for further growth for hengyuan for long term analysis.

In the short term the crack spread etc may be useful, but in the long term the ups will always be balanced by the downs.

Which is why I prefer to avoid hengyuan and the other producers. Low margin business, high competition, no differentiation.

>>>>>>>
probability

ROCK BOTTOM EPS analysis

In any case here I am enjoying my 700k of dividends, which is growing larger and larger as the day passes. And today at my holding cost, I am collecting 10% dividends from pchem, lowest price paid 4.09. guess what, pchem is now going to 9.

That is how you should be approaching long term investing.

Not trying to time the market trying to sell at highest and buy at lowest. In the end you miss out on the best deals by being to inflexible.

How do I become a mid term trader if my core stocks has not changed in the last 4 years? I think you have a very bad investment mind when you think in absolutes that someone is either all in, or all out on a stock. That is silly thinking and very amateurish.

Ask yourself this, if I am a mid term trader, why is pchem, QL, yinson still 75% of my portfolio? After so long?

Unlike those who keep talking about how good tguan is and how they are in it for the long term, but they still end up selling everything after 6 months of holding without saying a single word when they sold out. Very kyy of you.

I think your idea of long term offering and mine are very very different indeed.

More importantly Maxpower, time for you to realize this:

I post to show the benefit of long term sit down investing in excellent companies.

So take for example now, I did nothing with pchem and bought at 8.5, and now after ex dividend it is 9, and I get 25 cent dividend.

That is the art of doing nothing and watching and excellent business grow over time.

>>>>>>
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

And thanks for the pointer, I have bought 100k shares in pchem as well.. on margin at 8.5+

Even if this were true. That would still mean that in 2019 I started with 260k and turned it into 560k in the period, with a CAGR North of 21% every year for the last 4 years. Growth compounded every year by 20% no matter the value of the account is still a 20% growth which in my kocky opinion better than EPF, sp500, most etf etc before fees. Tell me your CAGR results with ever growing sums of money. I wonder how everyone is doing in the last 4-5 years? I know many institutional traders who are not even doing nearly as well if you look percentage wise.

Maybe I am the minority.
The only one who posts his portfolio results and his How-To guide to DIY your own investments and timeline with a daily snapshot of what happens your portfolio goes UP as well as DOWN.

Trust me. Not many people dare to show their portfolio when it is down.

They only like to show when it is going up and getting results.

Trust me, other than me, Felicity, and the founder of the edge magazine, I can't remember finding anyone else posting their long term portfolio online, what they buy and what they sell, and what their results are.


>>>>>>
they said Phillip conveniently added 2 ZERO to his portfolio a/c as konsultant to convince, confuse, condemn n kon =
don't u ever think so?

5 hours ago

I remember I messaged you and asked you to meet up so I can put some money with you to trade and see how effective your trading is. You have me some excuses when I pushed and until today you have still not replied me when I want to give you some money to trade and invest because I want to learn this trading thing.

So how? Are you still unable to show your trading portfolio results or come to terms with an agreement to trade some of my money?

We can start with 500k or 1 million with profit sharing discussion. Of course being fair any losses should also be shared between you and me 50%.

So far you still have not replied my private message.

Any reason why?

>>>>>>>
PureBULL ...

In stock mkt since August 1987 = That forced me to be a TALENT scout.

So you only comment if you have something against them?

Well, let me remark properly for those who can't read my words as posted. I do go to AGM, but only those which I have something specific that I wish to learn from. Omaha once a year, and in fact I attended the rhonema AGM and yinson AGM before as well. I think just like stocks, some AGMs are more useful than others.

Sadly you find a lot of nonsense in AGM as well.

Like kids going just to collect vouchers, or asking to increase dividends instead of asking them what they are going with the business.

You even have some asking people to do share split, like it makes any difference.

More importantly I only attend AGMs where the information is not freely given or clear and I need to ask direct questions. So far hartalega management is very very transparent compared to many others in the market. Majority of necessary information is available. Tell me what do you gain by going to AGM if the business is a solid and straightforward company.