I guess I was lucky that I found a business I understood, within my circle of competence, fit Peter lunch idea of long for businesses around you. But the was also many ql staff and workers, even my boss he knows the chia brothers directly and gets invited during CNY.

But did they all buy and hold QL? I don't think so.

There is much to be said on receiving public information, seeing the different future possibilities and acting on it.

That is where I think the efficient market school gets out wrong. Everyone gets the same info, they see 1+1, they think it equals 2. I see 1+1, I think it equals 2 now, but long term it can go to 11. That's part of being a contrarian.

To be honest you already knew since the day shell sold to hengyuan, that it was a fixer upper and hengyuan was going to have to do upgrades to the refinery plant to do ron92.

Downtime was almost guaranteed. It was a question of when.

Did that require insider knowledge or some fancy insight, I live it up to you to decide.

My exposure to QL is simply this:

I visited the plants to do upgrades and installations.
I met with the management, made friends with them. Never have they told me to buy QL shares or told me how their future quarterly report was going to go.
In terms of payment, QL was the best paymaster we ever had. We got paid on the dot. PO and VO was raised without request for discounts. They were willing to pay for airfreight, speed was more important than price.

If you asked any of QL customers they would tell you the same.

How many of them acted on and bought stock?

I think your idea of insider info and mine is totally different.

Kyy and aminvest went to Vietnam to view the status of the jaks power plant. How did that turn out?

Warren visited the HQ of GEICO, many others did but he saw something different that other people didn't.

I used the same operational framework for YINSON, topglove and public bank. I spend time to understand my investments, which is why I'm confused someone can buy 50 stocks and promote 20 more. Every stock I buy is carefully understood.

I could tell you my wife works at public bank. Does that constitute insider information that allows me to purchase stocks in public bank since 2012?

Most information are really available to serious investors and business owners. In fact I find it weird for me that everyone is investing heavily into hengyuan and CARIMIN without trying to understand the business model or visiting the plants. Hengyuan plant in is peninsular Malaysia, its not like it's in Brazil. Why not drive over, take a look, request for a tour? It's your investment!

What is the harm of understanding your business properly before betting the farm on it? In fact, if you wanted to buy a new bungalow house, wouldn't you want to visit the developer showroom, see the showhouse, interview your friend who works with the developer?

Should investing 1 million in pieces of paper warrant the same kind of dedication and attention?

I was exposed to ql since 2003 when the company I worked at started doing work for QL frozen plant and palm oil refinery in tawau and kalimba tan Uber ql boilermech. I got to see their capex growth first hand, and the number of new boats they buy, new feedmills and processing plants they do. From 2005-2008 I started to monitor their annual report, I really liked what I saw. But that time since owing money to a lot of people from bad stock market decisions I doubt myself in buying. In 2009, the annual report still doing very good things. After 4 years of good governance I decide to go in, after I saw Dr chia new expansion plans for QL.

So in some way insider information. But I think I stay in the stock for far longer than most insiders, because I kept buying the same stock for 10 years now from 2009 until 2019.

Who knows if the results for this quarter is also good, and the company no nasty surprise, I will continue to buy.

On contrary, I think Malaysia market is the lowest it had been in years. When all the other stock markets are flailing, I think this year Malaysia stock market will do very well overall.

I sure hope he does well, I did that for 3 years trading options. Then I've black swan event semua hilang.

:(

Should have followed icon8888 instead back then.

Obviously that is why I monitor closely every quarter results lo.

So far since 2009 has the story changed? What has its historical cagr been? Has it made a lost in any quarter? Has it failed to turn a profit?

You look at ql and you say it can't do it. I look at my report card and see no reason why I should doubt the management.

Have they ever failed me yet?

Has your wonderful insas ever failed you? For all it's margin of safety. This quarter it had lower revenue and profits of last year, and half the revenue of previous quarter and earnings mainly from selling it's inari stock. Is it growing organically?

Is it giving you any belief?

Stockraider average 15% yearly return on 45 stocks many years until today? Impressive. Sell buy sell buy everyday win big!

I can't fight general raider. He is the best!

Luckily this is not a competition. There is no winner or loser in the long term.

I only compete with my previous self.

Probability,

That is because you don't look at things the same way I do.
Let me give you some insight,

In 2009 when I bought ql they had 89 million earnings with 1.3 billion sales.
In 2013 they did 2.1 billion sales and 131 earnings.
In 2017 they did 3 billion sales and 200 million earnings.

What is the long term earnings that you can guess in 2022? How much revenue will family Mart add and earnings add in 2022?, How much will the other items add in 2022?

How about 2025? When do you think growth will end and earnings become flat? Is it in 2019? Will they crash their business this year?

Or do I have a insight on how ql in long term can get 8 billion revenue and 500 million earnings yearly flat when it exits growth stage?

Obviously I don't have an insight on that. That's why I rely on contrarianism from everyone in i3. Or optimism. Or idiotism. Or quarterly reports updates.

So far my journey since 2009 is on track and not done. I'm constantly changing my long term view on QL.

Same with YINSON. Same with topglove. Same with PBB. Same with STNE. When the story changes I sell.

Purebull if I am you, I will follow TAKAFUL closely. Their use of float is horrible ( they can only invest in shariah compliant stocks), but their underwriting profit from takaful family is fabulous.

Probability, Howard marks, Peter lunch, Warren Buffett all invest in the same way. There is no calculation of exact method if you are looking for it because investing is not a science. There is no formula that always works. It is more an art than science. It is a series of mindsets:

From all their annual reports, brk:

We select our marketable equity securities in much the same way we would evaluate a business for acquisition in its entirety.
We want the business to be (1) one that we can understand, (2) with favorable long-term prospects, (3) operated by honest and
competent people, and (4) available at an attractive price.

Purebull, you definitely can't use the same strategy forever. Ask kyy. Read the nifty fifty. Read the dogs of the Dow.

It works until it doesn't.

I think the one constant to ask this is to buy a stock where the future value you believe it's lower than is current value.

Margin of safety rule works in this way. It doesn't matter if:
1. You buy based on liquidated net asset value. You hope it will turnaround.
2. You buy based on future earnings. You hope the business will grow.
3. You buy based on wrong evaluation of information. You hope the results will be contrary to public belief.
4. You buy based on inside information. You have a crystal ball.

All of this is bought because you think you have margin of safety based on your idea of intrinsic value.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip6/

You do not.
1. Management can waste retained earnings on horrible ideas. Sell assets at below your assumed value to pay for debts. No turnaround.
2. Management can miss earnings. Low growth and no growth gets the same results.
3. The market is right. You were just plain wrong.
4. Be wrong and waiting too long to be right is the same thing. You still register losses.

Purebull, I've invested long enough to know that right timing is just that poor bull (shit). Anyone who tells you they have indicators, technical analysis and charts that can help you pick the right timing to buy or sell stocks you should avoid. If more than 100 years of stock market, the smartest men on the planet (LTCM long term capital management) couldn't do it, if Warren buffet told you he can't do it.

Trust me. It can't be done.

For me being contrarian will always be based on facts and the quarterly reports. If QL is PE50 and doesn't do anything different and just sits on their laurels, if buta buta keep and close eyes knowing that the revenues and earnings will stagnate or even go down is just stupid to buy or hold.

But if you practise 2nd level thinking and realize that they are constantly improving their management and constantly investing your earnings in smart investments like sustainable aquaculture, family Mart, regional replication to Vietnam and Indonesia, and you foresee a future for the palm oil industry improving, why not go along for the ride?

Level 1 thinking: ql is overvalued pe50, it is bad. Sell.
Level 2 contrarian thinking: QL is overvalued pe50, but will people stop eating chicken, eggs and seafood? Will their factories and plants suddenly become obsolete? Will their capex today generate more revenue tomorrow? Will their investments into family Mart, Indonesia and Vietnam work out?, Will the revenue and profits be exponentially more 5-10 years from now? Yes? Then don't sell. Hold or Buy.

Being a contrarian means looking further, but don't be a contrarian just for kicks. If your house is on fire and someone points it out. Don't bloody go in.

QL Nestle pe50 is not a sign to sell or buy, it just means you have to understand why it is PE50. Do you know why Nestle is PE50? Why QL is PE50? If you know then it is possible to be a contrarian. If you know next quarter report QL revenue and earnings is going to do badly, can do idss and short QL. But if you are hoping QL price at pe50 is going to drop just because it is PE50, that is not being a contrarian when you short.

That's just plain stupid.

Diversification is for those who don't know how to value their stocks properly. They lack clarity and business sense, so they think to reduce their risk by buying other stocks (which they also don't know as well).

But if you know your risk and stock well, why bother diversifying into other lesser understood stocks.

You will never convince me after you buy into bjcorp, weida, etc etc will, you decide to diversify into bad stocks like PRTASCO,talam and binapuri is a GOOD idea. Calvin tan did (or did not) that to 50 stocks.

How can that be a good business strategy? It is impossible for you to know all those stocks well enough all the time, otherwise how would you lose money on those turds?

The answer is you don't know well enough about those stocks to make an educated decision. Diversification should be about opportunity costs, where you buy other stocks because you think those others might do better than the stocks you currently hold.

The risk is in not understanding your stocks. NOT in diversification.

But believe what you want. You have repeated your sentence word for word in every forum page with the same thought process. Same words, all in capslocks. No new info, nothing new to learn. We get it.

It's getting boring.

But I'm sure you also bought your Hong leong based on pe ratio also back in 1998, or am I talkcock also?

One measures the float, the " free money" a bank has that allows them to give loans on free money.

The other measures the risk of their loans, how high the risk of being caught naked when the tide come out.

Book value is important, but measuring based on a single metric of price versus book value is just as bad as measuring based on earnings alone.

If you knew that you would probably have bought more Hong leong raider.

I give you chance to explain why I bought public bank since 2012. I give you hint, deposits and loan assets quality. You know how to measure those?

Hmmmm.... Anyone who simply just uses p/e as a valuation measure of banks is either a new investor, or someone who didn't know how to value banks. You have to look at it's book value, and the quality of it's book. As most banks are very closely related to a high degree, you have to be more discerning in the metrics you use to measure.

I think we should ask be envious of raider more leh. He invested in HL for so long since 1998, from rm1 to rm20 with many many dividends.
Problem is, he lack the conviction to realize opportunity costs. If he put in all his quarterly salary, savings, margin loan and borrowing every quarter since 1998 until 2019, I think he can become substantial shareholder in Hong leong and make more money than kyy.

Too bad.

I think one big question you need to ask is:


Is time cheap fibre selling cost versus tmnet fibre selling an issue of the legacy rates of tm wanting to earn more or is it some technology that only time has that allows it to sell at much lower prices?

If it is not, and a price war begins ( remember the old days of Digi versus maxis commercials),

but this time between fibre operators
Gigabroadband
Maxis fibre internet
Tm unifi
time fibre

And you add in 5g/6g incoming from cell operators (which no one ever saw coming 10 years ago)
Digi
Celcom
Maxis

Then you add in the alternative internet suppliers who are coming out with more offerings and better technology ( never expected 10 years ago either)
Measat

The race for cheap internet will become far more integrated, more low prices and commodities and the company with the lowest "internet" costs will succeed in the long term.

Who it is? No one knows. What I do know is South Korea charges 44000 won or rm159 for 1 gigabit (1000 MB) broadband speed access(via multiple methods). Who in Malaysia has the capex and the capability to undergo big investments like this in the future?

That is who I feel will be the winner in the future.

What is fair price? That's The question you should ask.

No one ever expected Amazon to be a trillion dollars company, except those who were willing to pay pe350 for it back in the day.

Not that I'm telling you to go buy QL, but I'm just proving you wrong.

More facts you are wrong, and pe and valuation are 2 didn't things:
Warren bought and held:

Suncor Energy Inc. (USA) (SU): 478.78
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (AXTA): 106.42
Liberty Media Corp (LMCA): 132.74

Of course at his stage, it would have been much more difficult to sell stocks without causing a big rip in panic selling.

It is important to remember that he bought in 1988, when coke was actually cheap because of some bad decisions. At the time, was a contrarian investment case.

But even if he did pay to buy more in 1998, he would still not have let his shareholders down.

Coke was the highest P/E stock Warren Buffett had in his portfolio.

KO traded over 50 times earnings during 1998. And Buffett didn't sell his shares.

Warren regretted not investing in Amazon too. He said he knew it was a wonderful company, but the price asked was to great.

He was both wrong to be right and right to be wrong.

And today the share price of latitude is 3.88. superb destruction of value.
Maybe what the 2nd level thinking should have been was the viability of the guaranteed rising costs of the 2 more depressed raw ingredients in local furniture industry to it's bottom line aka labor and rubber wood prices?

Perhaps samarang should have taken a look at the furniture made and sold by latitude and thought why would you invest in a company based in Vietnam, domiciled in Malaysia, 95% of it's products exported to the USA, and a product list that no self respecting Malaysian or Vietnamese would ever think of buying for his own home?

No one knows, best if no one makes any decisions until next quarter. Who knows, kyy might be right and it has an even more amazing results of 10 cents earnings

For those 3 stocks chunchun call, all the profit earn from the (30-40% gain in 2 years), all lost in a blink of an eye:

Armada (1.10 t0 22 cents, which you like to hold for decades)
PRTASCO (1.20 to 24 cents, deep undervalue until macc come find)
Talam (6 cents deep to 2.5 cents, super deep undervalue)
Perisai ( perisai bought at 45-46 cents, now undervalue until pn17 delist)

Those who follow blindly, do so at your own risk.

For he will lead you to the valley of the dead, and have no Fear.

Because he can run away to fight another Day.

While you try to keep the debtors at Bay.

And he has 5% net worth spread over 50 counters, understand okay?

Outliar you might want to read the whole book. I read the book in 2012, right after that I invested in public bank, when everyone said it was overvalued and boring compared to manufacturing stocks.

While average investors have been practicing 1st level thinking, I'd like to think I've been practising 2nd level thinking for quite a while now.

Public bank is overvalued, don't buy. 1st level thinking.

Public bank is overvalued, because it has the best assets and deposits in Malaysia. When there is a economic crisis, public bank will hurt least, and recover faster. It is rock solid. Buy! 2nd level thinking.

Choivo, if you have noticed by now, my way of investing is not like the others aggressive bang table type. I rarely if ever invest in penny stocks.

My brother in law works for them. They are very capable. My wife has shares in PPHB.

What my goal in PPHB was to explain what a undervalued stock with margin of safety was. A temporary mispricing due to lack of coverage, slow growth, poor management or lack of shareholder alignment.

For one reason or another, PPHB is a small cap stock which is undervalued, with good assets and management, and most of all a profitable and growing company.

I would be glad to put my name inb recommending this company, going forward. As it is one of the few net cash among all the packaging companies in bursa, and also one of the few profitable ones.

This will surely be reflected in the share price one day.

I rarely recommend books or blogs, but as very big fan of Howard Mark since the old days reading his memos,I highly recommend.

You can read some more info here.

Buy the book, it outlines what I am trying to say in understanding intrinsic value far better than I can articulate.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/192499.jsp

Oh gosh, how is this a listed company? My neighbor earns more money in a year than this company, and all he does is collects palm oil and resells it at his collection center.

"Successful investing requires thoughtful attention to many separate aspects, all at the same time. Omit any one and the result is likely to be less than satisfactory."

This resounded to me because everyone uses asset values in vacuum when trying to understand a company instead of looking at multiple aspects.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip6/

Now this is something important and useful to investors. Kudos. Uncommon sense for the thoughtful investor was a rough good book for me!

Now we're getting somewhere Calvin.

for that last part,
assuming if you were thinking pure long term:
if a stock was asking for PE50, and you had earnings of 1 dollar, yes you would have 50 dollars of earnings in 28 years. But imagine in 100 years you would have 1.2 million earnings. Yearly. the power of compounding.

Do you think you will be able to buy a quality stock at a cheap price?

Warren originally was only willing to pay 20 million for Sees candy. (Charlie thought 30 million was a fair price in 1972). Imagine if Warren followed ben graham concept of margin of safety, he would have wasted 10 million opportunity cost to get 1.6 billion in cash flow return ( on a business that had 85 million earnings yearly)

To be honest this is less about calvin and more about introducing the concept of accountability for financial crimes ( of which the crimes are very vague).

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2017-01-13/101043227.html

FYI I don't give a damn about calvin. My good friend died because he lost his pension fund, his childrens savings and a loan he took because of a ponzi scheme that worked, until it didn't.

That JJPTR guy is never going to be hanged. Never mind that the biggest economic damage he did was in Sabah, to desperate uneducated individuals who had to pay the "tuition fee" to learn.

Happy Chinese New Year All. May you never be brought to holland for a drive.

*KC you make a good point as usual.

I have said my piece, "Sifus" like Calvin will never be caught, bursa will never punish red stocks because too them volume and IPOs are the important thing, not credibility, and the biggest corruption case in Sabah in recent years (170 million found in house) of our local jabatan air directors has just been cleaned up and turned into a money laundering case. A simple penalty payment and problem solved

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabah_State_Water_Department_corruption_probe

Enjoy your stay in Holland drive pastor Kong Hee. I will do everything I can to save as many of the ones you bring to Holland as possible.

If you learn anything from me, it is just to never listen to any sifu especially his buy calls or sell calls. Learn the technique but make your own decisions. I do not or have not recommended anyone to buy into QL. Even if I do recommend, my advice would be you buy after the quarterly report and analyze what you see.

Don't listen to "Christian" leaders like Calvin tan ( real name Kong hee from city harvest church) who say one thing to build up the followers but do another. He uses church money to fund his lifestyle saying he deserves it.

He say he put money but did not say what date and at what share price he put. After those other stocks patron posted dropped by 50% he pretends dont know and run away to fight another day. Zero clarity, zero responsibility to readers, zero honesty to community.

At least Icon is a gentleman to really help i3 investors understand why he bought the stock and what price he bought in, and even advice when he got out.

Calvin is just another big fraud. May God have mercy on his black soul.

I mean think about it. You don't need a degree or a licence to sell an investment class. You just need Facebook. The more you charge the more popular you become.

What is the to protect the public from fraud?

Wouldn't it make sense to at least make it a requirement to show the public access to your portfolio returns 5 year as 10 year a sort of n annual report before they pay your stock investment fees?

The was that famous fat Malay trainer with fake credentials teaching the Malay community how to invest and buy stocks recently.

His big stock prediction was sumatec.

Is kyy a CRIMINAL activity? No, he put his own money in, he says he doesn't care if retail investors buy in or not, and you know his exposure. If any harm is caused, he himself takes a big but as major shareholder. I'm sure he lost money in Jaks, but you know it was his own money. So definitely there is no criminal activity there.

Is Calvin a criminal activity? To be honest I really don't know. But his methods are surely suspicious. Kcchongz posts recommendation because if he does well, his subscription goes up. Same with Tradeview, same with OTB.

In my case I share because I followed the wrong recommendations of people exactly like Calvin and I learned later on that they have not invested a single cent in the stocks they promoted but posted in 100 other stocks so they can tell their buddies and friends the ones that did turn out well so the can sell subscriptions, invest on their friends behalf and sell stock calls. Conveniently hiding the ones that did not. I share because I think new investors get the wrong info and methods out there and it's information that is easily available and free if you spend the time to learn.

But in Calvin case what is the angle? I am looking through an his chun chun stock picks and not so chun ones, and I have come to the conclusion that if you invested in ALL his stocks, you would be losing money in the long run without a sell call. Which he seems to be able to do perfectly.

I may be totally wrong. Calvin might be a good Christian that just does his things the wrong way ( otherwise the would not be so many detractors in the STOCKS he promotes). If so I humbly apologize.

But I think not, if you can figure out what is behind Calvin's chun chun call, there is definitely a reason to how he makes his money in his johorinvest eaglevision. It is definitely not through stock picking.

And I can buy my bottom dollar there is something naughty naughty.

Account in Singapore.

Ok, so in your case you think if do small naughty thing is ok and we should only look at the big bad thing?

I say you are wrong. Why do you think Singapore is such an example of efficiency and best city in South East Asia?

Try reading Malcolm Gladwell on his book the Tipping point. Especially note on the broken Windows theory and how the mayor of New York turned his city from one of the highest crime rate cities in USA to one of the best places to live in 2019.

Why does Singapore harp down so bad on chewing gum and have such low crime rates? Just walk across the causeway between woodlands and JB, you would see an immediate difference.

I believe if you punish the small crimes heavily the big crimes will disappear, not the other way around.

Hi lazycat that would be crazy stupid. Haha. Maybank sometimes wasting time

I use the TD Ameritrade account in Singapore. Much better rates, buy local got capital guarantee. The online brokerage very mafan sometimes.

I think the rates are unlimited trades usd11 per transaction or something like that.

In Soros case the one in the wrong is not Soros but our financial controllers, finance ministers and bankers working together to condemn the nation buy speculating, KNOWING that what they were doing was risky, wrong and investing others people (our nation's) money in something with high risk.

But those individuals were never put in prison or tried. In most cases they were promoted and transferred quietly while the nation suffered.

I used to remember the old days when I could travel to Taiwan and South Korea and eat and live like a king ( I'm not joking). Today my ringgit is not good in Thailand, or anywhere outside of Malaysia.

The has to be a check and balance system. Problem is the committee on that is the committee who writes the rules and pays the bills.

I died renong listening to bad advice. I would not wish the next 10 years of that life running from friends and hiding from family with your head down trying to pay back loans on anyone.

Again blaming the village idiot instead of the Piper that blew his pipe.

Do you know how much economic damage people like Jordan Belfort did to the uneducated public in USA? Or how many pension funds(including your own EPF money) died in renong and sumatec via prior like halim bin saad?

At least USA put Jordan Belfort in prison.
How about those others who constantly whisper in your ears ( buy sumatec, buy talam, buy binapuri, Vincent tan will show you the blowjob way....)

How do you judge the quality and conviction of their words without putting some betting money into sumatec and talam and try? Then when you die leave the market....

If I put 50k on your lap, and tell you yeah use it brother, you can pay me later! You just have to sign along the dotted line....

My hope is to remove the bad advice and CRIMINAL activity from the market.

And yet syndicate activity in bursa exists unpunished.

That's why I won't touch penny stocks in bursa no matter how profitable it seems.

>>>>>
When I was young, you know, Asian Economic Crisis. I hate Soros too. But as one getting mature, I know it wasn't Soros, at least not only him.

There are many other reasons for those who failed to achieve financial freedom, say education, family, etc etc, but mostly it is due to personal weakness. But there are always good teaching, good advice around. Those failed to make money in the stock market, shut their door and listen to the wrong advice.

Stop the blame game.

Posted by deMusangking > Feb 4, 2019 04:01 PM | Report Abuse

bursa is a battlefield!!!! dun talk about fairness in a battle field!!!! u win if u kill ur enemy , by hook or by crook!

>>>>

Don't be stupid. Stock investing is not a zero sum game like forex, options or derivatives. We can all be winners if everyone treats it like buying a business ( Although in brk, a lot of the retail investors don't even want to sell their shares for you to buy)

We are participating in the growth of a company.

Those who are not participating but choose to promote and tell unsuspecting newbies ( tuition fee mah) to buy into bad companies citing undervalued but not enough analysis or dipping into the waters of baptism buying themselves are just being unchristian.

How many new England textile companies died while having their company sold for parts. Are you going to use Berkshire as an shining example of an undervalued stock to buy all the other new England textile companies? You would have died spectacularly.

If Calvin tan actually put big money into an those company's that he is promoting, he would know how well his portfolio will do over 5-10 years.

If he only holds 5% of his networth over 50 stocks he should put a very big disclaimer.

BUY THESE STOCKS AT YOUR OWN RISK. I ONLY BOUGHT 50 LOTS IN BJCORP AND TALAM, AND I HAVE THE OTHER 40 STOCKS WHICH ARE UNDERWATER.

At least then we would have more data and ability to judge the stocks he promotes without blind belief in chun chun calls.