Cost stayed high in 1HFY23. Its 2QFY23 CPO price was flattish QoQ while FFB output improved 11% QoQ to 0.222m MT (-7% YoY) but plantation earnings dipped 34% compared to the first quarter, an indication of the cost pressures in 2QFY23 and 1HFY23 compared to the operating environment just a year earlier.

Kenanga Research

Always look at its normalised or core earnings.

Standard and Poor’s latest version of the measurement of core earnings excludes any gains related to pension activities, net revenues from the sale of assets, impairment of goodwill charges, prior-year charge and provision reversals, and settlements related to litigation. Our measurement further excludes fair value gain or loss on capital assets as well as unrealized foreign exchange gain or loss. Expenses related to employee stock option grants, pensions, restructuring of present operations or any merger and acquisition costs, R&D purchases, write-downs of depreciable or amortizable operating assets, realized forex gain or loss and realized gains/losses from hedging activities are all included in (i.e. not subtracted from) the core earnings.

At price of RM 1.00 per share:

Market capitalisation of TSH is RM 1.375 billion.
Enterprise value of TSH is RM 1.785 billion.

Yes, it generated one off gains from disposal of land and estates. The cash in flow reduces its debts significantly.

80% of TSH revenues come from its plantation sector. The other segment contributes about 20% of its revenues but the earnings here are more volatile.

Indonesia’s export levy and duties continued to dampen net CPO prices attributable to TSH, resulting in 2QFY23 realised CPO of only RM3,493 per MT (-2% QoQ, -31% YoY).

Its 1HFY23 net profit also included a disposal gain of RM27.6m which stemmed from the agreed disposal of 13,898 Ha land (only 28% planted) in NE Kalimantan for RM731m cash in June 2022. RM429m worth of lands was transferred before FY22 ended, with a realised gain of RM311m then. In Jan 2023, a small parcel (575 Ha) was transferred resulting in a gain in 1QFY23.

The sales of the remaining pieces of land (along with divestment gain of RM120m-RM140m) is now likely to be in 2024 as both parties agreed to extend the agreement till mid-2024.

Kenanga Research

Its 1HFY23 core net profit of RM20.9m disappointed at only 18% and 16% of our full-year forecast and the full-year consensus estimate, respectively. The variance against our forecast came largely from weaker-than-expected CPO price realised and FFB output.

Kenanga Research

24 Aug 2023, 09:50 AM
TSH’s 1HFY23 results disappointed on higher cost and weak CPO prices. Its 1HFY23 core net profit plunged 85% due to weaker CPO price and FFB output, coupled with losses from a refining JV with Wilmar. We cut our FY23-24F net profit forecasts by 50-41%, reduce our TP by 9% to RM1.00 (from RM1.10) but maintain our MARKET PERFORM call.

Kenanga Research

YEAR .. DPS(SEN) .. EPS(SEN) .. YEPX
2009 .. 0 .. 0.34 .. 0.45
2010 .. 0 .. 5.72 .. 0.45
2011 .. 0 .. 11.99 .. 0.39
2012 .. 0 .. 1.5 .. 0.36
2013 .. 0.81 .. 7.62 .. 0.72
2014 .. 0.82 .. 19.88 .. 0.65
2015 .. 0.89 .. 12.25 .. 0.69
2016 .. 0.89 .. 10.41 .. 0.63
2017 .. 0.89 .. 22.2 .. 0.83
2018 .. 0.89 .. 14.61 .. 0.6
2019 .. 1.78 .. 11.77 .. 0.73
2020 .. 1.78 .. 1.99 .. 0.84
2021 .. 2 .. 23.99 .. 0.97
2022 .. 2.5 .. 12.69 .. 0.81


DPS, EPS and Year End Price are adjusted for capital changes
Total cumulative EPS 156.96
Total Cumulative DPS 13.25
DPO Ratio 8.4%
Insas

YEAR DPS(SEN) .. EPS(SEN) .. YEPX
2009 41.25 .. 53.94 .. 8.5
2010 45 .. 59.51 .. 8.58
2011 45 .. 67.62 .. 8.58
2012 51 .. 68.06 .. 9.2
2013 51 .. 73.94 .. 9.94
2014 55 .. 72.07 .. 9.17
2015 57 .. 67.05 .. 8.4
2016 50 .. 66.06 .. 8.2
2017 55 .. 70.61 .. 9.8
2018 57 .. 73.29 .. 9.5
2019 57 .. 73.52 .. 8.64
2020 52.5 .. 57.55 .. 8.46
2021 66.5 .. 68.4 .. 8.3
2022 58 .. 68.22 .. 8.7
2023 59.00E .. 73.00E .. 9.16

DPS, EPS and Year End Price are adjusted for capital changes
Total cumulative EPS 939.84
Total Cumulative DPS 741.25
DPO Ratio 78.9%
MBB

YEAR .. DPS(SEN) .. EPS(SEN) .. YEPX
2009 .. 0.32 .. 2.55 .. 0.34
2010 .. 0.56 .. 4.43 .. 0.4
2011 .. 1.38 .. 3.51 .. 0.41
2012 .. 1.13 .. 3.99 .. 0.42
2013 .. 1.75 .. 5.61 .. 1.08
2014 .. 1.75 .. 5.6 .. 1.12
2015 .. 2.5 .. 7.72 .. 2.33
2016 .. 2.88 .. 6.71 .. 1.65
2017 .. 2.75 .. 6.86 .. 2.03
2018 .. 1.5 .. 7.83 .. 2.17
2019 .. 3 .. 8.86 .. 2.08
2020 .. 6 .. 42.12 .. 4.5
2021 .. 47 .. 113.83 .. 1.92
2022 .. 12 .. 5.61 .. 1.1
2023 .. 2.50E .. 0.50E .. 1.36

DPS, EPS and Year End Price are adjusted for capital changes
Total cumulative EPS 225.23
Total Cumulative DPS 84.52
DPO Ratio 37.5%
Kossan

Some Plantation Stocks

YEAR DPS(SEN) .. EPS(SEN) .. YEPX
2009 6.07 .. 18.29 .. 4.28
2010 13.3 .. 19.57 .. 4.54
2011 13.3 .. 22.63 .. 4.21
2012 12.12 .. 21.14 .. 3.99
2013 12.12 .. 19.34 .. 4.71
2014 20 .. 19.68 .. 4.8
2015 9 .. 14.25 .. 4.46
2016 8 .. 14.3 .. 4.4
2017 9.5 .. 16.93 .. 4.54
2018 20.5 .. 15.41 .. 4.45
2019 8 .. 11.31 .. 4.61
2020 8 .. 12.06 .. 4.37
2021 9 .. 25.00E .. 3.73
2022 12 .. 26.00F .. 4.05
2023 NAE .. NA .. 4.03

DPS, EPS and Year End Price are adjusted for capital changes
Total cumulative EPS 204.91
Total Cumulative DPS 160.91
DPO Ratio 78.5%
IOI Plantation

====

YEAR DPS(SEN) .. EPS(SEN) .. YEPX
2009 4.69 .. 9.19 .. 1.22
2010 5.32 .. 15.27 .. 1.73
2011 7.82 .. 20.43 .. 1.77
2012 10.42 .. 6.33 .. 1.66
2013 3.83 .. 7.17 .. 1.88
2014 3.62 .. 4.22 .. 1.7
2015 2 .. 4.92 .. 1.16
2016 0 .. 5.11 .. 1.1
2017 7.6 .. 2.56 .. 1.15
2018 2 .. -43.78 .. 0.47
2019 0 .. -13.41 .. 0.65
2020 0 .. 1.81 .. 0.57
2021 0 .. 8.35 .. 0.6
2022 1.5 .. 7.00E .. 0.53
2023 1.50E .. 6.00F .. 0.54

DPS, EPS and Year End Price are adjusted for capital changes
Total cumulative EPS 28.17
Total Cumulative DPS 48.8
DPO Ratio 173.2%
THPlantation

====

YEAR DPS(SEN) .. EPS(SEN) .. YEPX
2009 0 .. 0 .. 0
2010 NA .. NA .. 0
2011 NA .. NA .. 0
2012 NA .. NA .. 0
2013 NA .. NA .. 0
2014 NA .. NA .. 0
2015 NA .. NA .. 0
2016 NA .. 12.37 .. 6
2017 6.5 .. 15.5 .. 4.76
2018 6.5 .. 2.7 .. 4.76
2019 12.7 .. 3 .. 5.45
2020 5 .. 17.21 .. 4.99
2021 12.5 .. 30.00E .. 3.76
2022 NA .. NA .. 4.65
2023 NAE .. NA .. 4.3

DPS, EPS and Year End Price are adjusted for capital changes
Total cumulative EPS 50.78
Total Cumulative DPS 43.2
DPO Ratio 85.1%
Sime Plantation

====

YEAR DPS(SEN) .. EPS(SEN) .. YEPX
2009 0 .. 1.94 .. 0.83
2010 0.48 .. 2.9 .. 1.49
2011 1.43 .. 17.42 .. 2.18
2012 3.86 .. 15.7 .. 1.99
2013 1 .. 1.16 .. 2.04
2014 1.5 .. 6.41 .. 2.02
2015 1 .. 3.84 .. 1.33
2016 1.3 .. 6 .. 1.34
2017 0.5 .. 8.57 .. 1.08
2018 0.5 .. -5.15 .. 0.47
2019 0 .. -26.57 .. 1.04
2020 0 .. -6.51 .. 0.9
2021 0 .. 1.06 .. 0.62
2022 2.8 .. 13.83P .. 0.64
2023 3.00E .. 11.00E .. 0.78

DPS, EPS and Year End Price are adjusted for capital changes
Total cumulative EPS 26.77
Total Cumulative DPS 14.37
DPO Ratio 53.7%
Jtiasa

====

YEAR DPS(SEN) .. EPS(SEN) .. YEPX
2009 2.1 .. 7.13 .. 0.69
2010 3.63 .. 5.22 .. 0.87
2011 4.29 .. 6.29 .. 0.77
2012 4.95 .. 10.39 .. 0.75
2013 3.96 .. 6.2 .. 0.84
2014 4.95 .. 6.71 .. 0.88
2015 7.59 .. 8.13 .. 1
2016 4.95 .. 7.96 .. 1.14
2017 7.26 .. 7.53 .. 1.41
2018 4.98 .. 10.31 .. 1.18
2019 6 .. 5.73 .. 1.6
2020 4 .. 4.31 .. 1.6
2021 8 .. 10.16 .. 1.66
2022 11 .. 13.87 .. 1.86
2023 14.00E .. 16.00E .. 1.82

DPS, EPS and Year End Price are adjusted for capital changes
Total cumulative EPS 109.94
Total Cumulative DPS 77.66
DPO Ratio 70.6%
Kim Loong

====

YEAR DPS(SEN) .. EPS(SEN) .. YEPX
2009 18.75 .. 64.44 .. 6.82
2010 31.88 .. 66.61 .. 8.55
2011 35.63 .. 91.08 .. 9.5
2012 45 .. 88.62 .. 12.5
2013 46.94 .. 70.48 .. 13
2014 84.38 .. 64.95 .. 12.2
2015 45 .. 70.57 .. 12.68
2016 50 .. 74.36 .. 13.46
2017 57.5 .. 93.63 .. 14.04
2018 75 .. 92.28 .. 12.75
2019 75 .. 67.08 .. 13.14
2020 72.5 .. 91.08 .. 14.52
2021 95 .. 126.04 .. 13.88
2022 125 .. 146.04 .. 15.3
2023 140.00E .. 125.00E .. 16

DPS, EPS and Year End Price are adjusted for capital changes
Total cumulative EPS 1207.26
Total Cumulative DPS 857.58
DPO Ratio 71.0%
United Plantation

====

Keep in mind.

1. Great minds talk about ideas
2. Good minds talk about things
3. Weak minds talk about people

:-)

YEAR …. ADJ DPS(SEN) …. ADJ EPS(SEN) …. ADJ YEPX
2009 …. 1.67 …. 4.42 …. 0.66
2010 …. 1.67 …. 6.37 …. 0.94
2011 …. 2 …. 9.67 …. 1.27
2012 …. 2.33 …. 6.86 …. 1.45
2013 …. 1.67 …. 9.58 …. 2.01
2014 …. 2.33 …. 9.83 …. 2.31
2015 …. 2.5 …. 6.39 …. 1.96
2016 …. 2 …. 6.49 …. 1.86
2017 …. 2 …. 5.55 …. 1.65
2018 …. 2 …. 2.48 …. 0.99
2019 …. 1 …. 2.45 …. 1.54
2020 …. 1 …. 4.73 …. 1.15
2021 …. 1.5 …. 6.5 …. 1.08
2022 …. 11 …. 11.50 …. 1.07



Total cumulative EPS 81.32
Total Cumulative DPS 34.67
DPO Ratio 42.6%

The price of this stock spiked in April 2023. It was "played up" with the news a new shareholder was buying into this stock.

In retrospect, what happened in April 2023 which led to its price spiked up. It spiked and quickly withered away as quickly too.

If you wish to bounce some ideas on your stock pick, you may wish to post them here for sharing.

As long as Anwar remains focussed on the reform agenda, some of these compromises maybe necessarily tolerated. The path to achieving these higher goals ain't going to be smooth.

Simple calculation:

From 2009 to 2023:
Its share price has risen from RM 0.75 in 2009 to RM 4.22 today = price gain of RM 3.47.
Its shareholders would have received at least RM 1.112 in dividends.
Those who invested at RM 0,75 per share and held onto their shares all these years, would have realised RM 3.47 + RM 1.112 = RM 4.582 in gains.

Thus, for these shareholders, PBB is a multibagger stock. (RM 4.582/ RM 0.75 = 6.1x)


Be long term greedy.

DPS, EPS and Year End Price are adjusted for capital changes

YEAR …. DPS(SEN) …. EPS(SEN) …. YE Price RM
2009 …. 2.7 …. 7.53 …. 0.75
2010 …. 3 …. 9.27 …. 1.09
2011 …. 4 …. 11.51 …. 1.09
2012 …. 6 …. 14.59 …. 1.85
2013 …. 8 …. 12.98 …. 1.81
2014 …. 11.5 …. 13.82 …. 1.46
2015 …. 10 …. 12.19 …. 1.87
2016 …. 11.5 …. 20.88 …. 2.55
2017 …. 11.5 …. 23.4 …. 5.28
2018 …. 11.5 …. 22.79 …. 3.51
2019 …. 11.5 …. 24.04 …. 3.24
2020 …. 2.5 …. 10.9 …. 2.88
2021 …. 5 …. 8.5 …. 2.8
2022 …. 12.5 …. 22.95 …. 3.35

From 2009 to 2022:
Cumulative total EPS = 215.35 sen
Cumulative total DPS = 111.2 sen
DPO ratio = 52%

It is very important to know the DY of a share as this figure provides us with a direct comparison against the return we can get from other form of investments such as fixed deposit. The return we can expect from a share should bear some relationship to the return on alternative forms of investment. Very generally speaking, the DY of share one would want to invest in typically falls roughly within the range of 2-6%. Investors should not buy share with DY of less than 2% except in exceptional circumstances such as cyclically low dividend year or very fast growing companies.

>>>>
>>>>
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥

1H 2023 Financial Result for TSH
1H2023 …. Rev (RM ,000) …. Net Prof (RM ,000) …. EPS (sen) …. Div (sen) …. NTA (RM)
1H 2023 .... 506,868 .... 39,990 .... 2.90 .... 0.00 .... 1.513

18 hours ago
>>>>

The last 3 qtrs, the qtrly EPS showed a downtrending pattern.
The 1H of 2023, TSH delivered EPS of 2.9 sen per share.
Annualising this to project its EPS for this whole year of 2023 = 2 x 2.9 sen = 5.8 sen per share.
Its NTA is RM 1.513 per share.
Thus, its ROE = 5.8 / 151.3 = 3.83%.


I usually like for companies with ROE of 15% or more.

In any case, a company with an ROE of 3.83% and NTA of RM 1.513 per share, what is its fair value in these various scenarios:

1. when you seek returns = to risk free treasury bond rate of 5%?
2. when you seek returns = 10% per year?
3. when you seek returns = 15% per year?

Does calvintaneng's irrational price of RM 4.00 make much sense? How does he justify this?

Do you know why some businesses trade below their NTA values and some businesses trade a premium above their NTA values?

>>>>


The average long term cost of funds is about 6% to 8%. You should at least look for companies with ROEs that are reasonable. ROE gives us an idea how well the managers are utilising the assets of the company in generating profits.

Ideally, the DPS of a share is best both stable and growing. In that case, we would know that this share will provide reliable return.

We can use DY for comparing companies in the same business. If the DY and its trend of a company are better than its peers in the same industry, we can say that it would seem to represent better investment value.

Exceptionally high DY may not be maintainable as it is often caused by a temporary phenomenon If the share has a reasonably narrow DY range, a high current DY is indicative of current low price.

Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield (DY) is computed by dividing the DPS by the Market Price. This shows the current return one can obtain in buying a share. The unit is percent per annum as with all return computations.

It is very important to know the DY of a share because this figure provides us with a direct comparison against the return we can get from one year fixed deposit (The average for the last 10 years is about 4%). The return we can expect from a share should bear some relationship to the average return on fixed deposit.

Very generally speaking, the DY of share we want to invest in ought to fall roughly within the range of 2-6%. Investors are willing to accept lower DY for shares with faster growing DPS/EPS and vice versa. We ought to buy shares with DY of less than 1.5% only in exceptional circumstances.

Dividend is inherently a much more stable figure than EPS and for most companies, the variability from the long term trend is small. As a result, DY is a useful judge of the investment value of a share taken in consideration with its ROE. As a general guide, the better the ROE and DPS growth rate, the lower can be the DY at which we can invest in the share.

My intrinsic value for Padini is RM 6.00 per share!

PADINI Financial Information
Learn how to use the financial indicators
Market Capital (RM) : 2.599b
EPS (cent) : 33.85 Business+ :
Number of Share : 657.91m
P/E Ratio : 11.67 YoY Score :
TTM Revenue : 1.822B
ROE : 21.42%
QoQ Score :
TTM Profit : 222.69M
Dividend (cent) : 11.500 ^
Debt/Asset Ratio :
TTM Profit Margin : 12.2%
Dividend Yield : 2.91%
Net Cash (RM) :
CAGR - Revenue : 1.7%
Dividend Policy :
Net Cash/Share (RM) :
CAGR - PAT : 4.6%
Dividend Payout :
Equity Growth :
NTA (RM) : 1.580
P/B Ratio : 2.50
Free Cash Flow (cent) :

Jaya Tiasa

This is a company that is difficult to value. Accordingly, how to invest intelligently. Look for another.

>>>>
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥

1H 2023 Financial Result for TSH
1H2023 …. Rev (RM ,000) …. Net Prof (RM ,000) …. EPS (sen) …. Div (sen) …. NTA (RM)
1H 2023 .... 506,868 .... 39,990 .... 2.90 .... 0.00 .... 1.513

18 hours ago
>>>>

The last 3 qtrs, the qtrly EPS showed a downtrending pattern.
The 1H of 2023, TSH delivered EPS of 2.9 sen per share.
Annualising this to project its EPS for this whole year of 2023 = 2 x 2.9 sen = 5.8 sen per share.
Its NTA is RM 1.513 per share.
Thus, its ROE = 5.8 / 151.3 = 3.83%.


I usually like for companies with ROE of 15% or more.

In any case, a company with an ROE of 3.83% and NTA of RM 1.513 per share, what is its fair value in these various scenarios:

1. when you seek returns = to risk free treasury bond rate of 5%?
2. when you seek returns = 10% per year?
3. when you seek returns = 15% per year?

Does calvintaneng's irrational price of RM 4.00 make much sense? How does he justify this?

Do you know why some businesses trade below their NTA values and some businesses trade a premium above their NTA values?

Good reading.

TONGHER Financial Information

Market Capital (RM) : 409.32m
EPS (cent) : 24.95
Number of Share : 157.43m
P/E Ratio : 10.42
ROE : 6.95%
Dividend (cent) : 20.000 ^
Dividend Yield : 7.69%
NTA (RM) : 3.590
P/B Ratio : 0.72

High PEs of Tongher
2009 34.7x
2012 34.7x
2015 64.07x
2019 34.67x


Low PEs of Tongher
2011 6.03x
2013/14 6.09x
2017 5.17x
2021/22 5.08x

Tongher continues to deliver good dividends yearly. To profit from investing in this stock, just do not buy when it was obviously high priced (corresponding to time of high EPS and low PE ratio)

From 2009 to 2023, its price was highest of 4.48 per share in 2017 and lowest of 1.23 per share in 2020.

At average dividend of 14.6 sen per year, the high DY was 11.9% (assuming you bought the share at the lowest price of RM 1.23 per share) and the low DY was 3.36% (assuming you bought at the highest price of RM 4.48 per share)

How to time your buying and selling of Tongher, a cyclical stock?

How do you invest in Tongher?

From 2009 to 2023
Tongher's earnings were cyclical.
During this period, its EPS peaked in 2010, 2014, 2017/18 and 2022.
Its PE similarly showed cyclical pattern: lower PEs in 2011, 2013/14, 2017and 2021.

During this period, its earnings were lowest in 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2019.
Its PE was highest in 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2019.

From 2009 to 2022 (14 years),
its cumulative total EPS was 334.08 sen or averaging 23.9 sen per year
its cumulative distributed EPS was 205 sen or averaging 14.6 sen per year.
Its DPO ratio = 61.4%.


The price chart of Tongher during this period is also very interesting and characteristically cylical. The price chart followed the cyclical pattern of the EPS chart (price was high when EPS was high), and the pattern exhibited the opposite of the PE chart (price was high and PE correspondingly was low).

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

>>>

Posted by SEE_Research > 6 minutes ago | Report Abuse

FULLY EXPOSED


Lapsap longkang fella who had badly speculated a panjang longkang list of 9 plantation stocks are fully exposed with his mouse tail that protrude


CLEARLY WITH IS TOTAL LOSSES , WHAT EVER IT MAY BE ( PAPAER LOSSES ) ARE HUMONGOUS AT RM 1,185 ,470 .00 CHEERS TO HIM FROM HIS 50 DISGRUNTLED FOLLOWERS.

>>>

Always look at risks of the stock. By eliminating or minimising the risks, the upside take care of itself.

>>>>
Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-11-24 12:45 | Report Abuse

Calvin, TSH is awarded the concession to rehabilitate about 123,000 ha forest land . So far only about 30,000 ha has been rehabilitated up to end of last year. The biological assets value are the fair value of all tree planted on these 30,000 ha which can be harvested when they mature one day . Once the assets already reflecting current fair value (thru fair value changes on qtrly basis) , there is no gain when they are harvested and sold .
You must understand that biological assets is simply just another class of asset.


calvintaneng

51,088 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-11-24 13:01 | Report Abuse

Yes,

But the balance of 93,000 hectares also got a value as TSH called it "Rights of Use Assets" with 100 years lease

Right of use assets book value is Rm292 Millions

What is the current market value? As in all Assets - Right of Use Assets also can be revalued & sold


Johnzhang

2,887 posts

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-11-24 13:54 | Report Abuse

Calvin,
I don’t think there is any commercial value to the un-rehabilitated forest land . I am not privy to the concession agreement and can’t confirm if the concession is even transferable. But I seriously doubt it is transferable!
The concession is only the rights to cultivate timber tree for later harvest. The concession land , which I believe is non transferable, is NOT an asset to the company. Consequently, we don’t see it being reported in the list of assets in the annual report .
Sarawak government has cancelled quite some forestry concession and threaten to withdraw more if the awarded companies fail to comply to the rate of forest rehabilitation.
The right of use assets in the book are for all the leasehold oil palm lands in Indonesia . Domestic and foreign company can only hold leasehold or right to use property in Indonesia. The lease in Indonesia is always very short , 20-40 years only. In the case of TSH, the lease is for 35 years and all leases are expiring in 2040-2046 ie 20 years time . Consequently, the value of the land will continue to depreciate as the renaming lease get shorter. Extension of lease to foreign company in Indonesia is a big question mark! Don’t expect land appreciation for TSH!


novice2020

133 posts

Posted by novice2020 > 2021-11-24 14:01 | Report Abuse

@Johnzhang, Thanks for your clear explanations stated above. Also agree with you that it is more accurate to evaluate the performance of the company based on PE rather than EPS. There are certainly many plantation companies with better PE based on 3rd Quarter results. And prospective PE based on the full year results.


Johnzhang

2,887 posts

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-11-24 14:08 | Report Abuse

I evaluate TSH solely for its oil palm business. If you include the timber business in the equation, there are a lot more issues such as state policy , long term timber products price , cost of production , gestation period , etc to be looked into , which entails very different discussion.


calvintaneng

51,088 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-11-24 14:44 | Report Abuse

Johnzhang Calvin,
I don’t think there is any commercial value to the un-rehabilitated forest land . I am not privy to the concession agreement and can’t confirm if the concession is even transferable. But I seriously doubt it is transferable!

No. These lands are not transferable but only the remaining years of "Rights" could be sold

The company has to register these lands under different sub entities that got the Rights

So they can be sold as sub companies

This was how many Bumi and non bumi entities get Govt allocated "concession lands at nominal sums and do nothing themselves. They either "rent out these lands for a yearly fee for others or out right sale of these separate companies if price is right
>>>

Good sharing by one who is more knowledgeable than the promoter on land matters in Indonesia. This add values to this discussion and to this forum. Thanks.

>>>
Posted by stockraider > 2021-12-12 16:43 | Report Abuse

Correctloh...just ignore the TSH land sales profit...which has not even materialize loh, now still pending due diligence findings mah!


Posted by Investorrr > Dec 12, 2021 11:11 AM | Report Abuse

if long term investments, better hope and forecast into TSh 's core earnings only.hope for consistently palm oil price above rm5k per ton for 1st half in 2022.The land sales profit is just a one time profit.

>>>

Agreed totally. An intelligent investor should that this into account in his valuation of this company.

>>>>

Posted by th1216 > 2022-01-18 22:27 | Report Abuse

>>>>

hi calvin, i would like to join your whatsapp group on palm oil too ..


calvintaneng

51,088 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-01-19 01:00 | Report Abuse

The is Teong Hee

Welcome welcome

anyone genuine investor of palm oil shares just whataspp freely this number 0146101668

Posted by vpn388 > 2022-01-21 13:13 | Report Abuse

Calvin,

What's the difference of joining your Whatsapp group? I don't see much difference... It's it disappointing? It's a waste of phone space, right?

Why won't you tell the targeted buying price, selling price and their dates? This time I'll make you feel more comfortable and won't blame you if you fail/ inaccurate. Do you feel better now? Let me trust you that you are not misleading people for your own advantage.

Let's reply here. And please be clear this time. Thank you

Posted by vcinvestor > 2022-01-21 13:50 | Report Abuse

why do i need to join the whatsapp group if every morning i see 5-10 forum posts by calvintaneng on palm oil...

>>>>


Are you in the whatsapp group? Do you find this whatsapp group useful?

>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-02-21 21:11 | Report Abuse

Velocityy

Calvin thinks palm oil Bull run is just starting

Long way more up to go

Calvin expects to see Tsh gives 300% to 500% profits for all who can buy and hold tightly for all the value to be unlocked
>>>>


CPO historical price movement

Low price in April 2020.
Climbed to its highest and peaked in April 2022.
Tumbled from this peak price down to its trough in October 2022.


TSH historical share price

Rose from RM 1.10 in Jan 2022
Peaked at RM 1.80 in April 2022
Dropped back to 96 sen in July 2022.

>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-02 09:31 | Report Abuse

Buy hold till Rm2.00

Then?

Hold till Rm3.00

Then?

Still hold on till Rm4.00

Then?

Still hold on till a blue chip over Rm10.00

Possible ?

Hohoho!!!
....
Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-04 15:50 | Report Abuse

Last time tsh was Rm1. 96 when it took private Ekowood at 40 sen

Now Tsh only rm1. 76

Less 40 sen for Ekowood Tsh only Rm1. 37 real cost

When ijmplant was rm4.00 Tsh was also rm4.00 last palm oil bull

Klk took ijmplant private at Rm3.10

Now in real time Tsh should be at least Rm2. 50 (ex one for two bonus)

Tsh below rm2.00 just buy as much as you can afford
.....
Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-04 08:45 | Report Abuse

Tsh Insiders' are mopping up cheap Tsh shares

The longer you delay the less Tsh share will be in the market and the higher price you must pay

Tsh won't wait for you

You don't wait to buy Tsh

You buy Tsh and wait
....
Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-07 14:57 | Report Abuse

Just stay in Tsh now best

Insider boss bought at Rm1.69 last Friday

The new benchmark of value

Anything below Rm1.69 just take

Definitely big things yet ahead
....

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-07 17:43 | Report Abuse

RM1.674

TSH BOSS BOUGHT 200,000 SHARES OF TSH AT ABOVE PRICES

NO NEED PANIC
BE STEADY. VERY STEADY

BIG THINGS ARE YET AHEAD.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3240515

.......
>>>>>>>>>>>


Taking comfort from the actions of insiders!

Surely, there are valuable lessons we can learn from observing the behaviour of fellow "investors".

Thanks for the education.

Good morning.

>>>>

51,088 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-04 20:35 | Report Abuse

Wallstreetrookie

Why do you wait until Oct 2022 when Tsh would have reached Rm4.00 to enter?

......

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-05 10:08 | Report Abuse

Good morning

Value investing champion is Warren Buffet and certainty not dead

Moneyontheway

Klk has exceeded it's all time historic high which Tsh has not reach it's previous high of Rm2.60 (after ex bonus one for two free at Rm4.02)

So long way up more

>>>>>>

>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-01 17:54 | Report Abuse

For long term investing we don't bother with short term sentiment or price fluctuation now

So we will continue to buy on weakness irrespective of how market behaves

......

Posted by sunnyspoon > 2022-05-02 01:16 | Report Abuse

Bought TSH at Rm 0.90,sold all at Rm 1.83 good profit, will buy back again after Indonesia lifts the ban.


calvintaneng

51,088 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-02 05:59 | Report Abuse

Sunnyspoon

Your words revealed your heart's intention : you have bought cheap and sold out all at a good price

Now for your own selfish and personal reason you come back to spread doubt and fear to cause weak hands to sell so that you hope to get in cheap again?

Is this ethical ? You got conscience?
For sake of your own gain you want to betray your fellow investors whose hope you once had when you bought cheaper and now made double

Since you already sold about Rm1.80 you should wish those who took over from you above Rm1.80 to also make some

This is the law of doing to others what you would others to do to you

>>>>

>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-29 15:24 | Report Abuse

Wait till May 2022 great results out

Then the rise will turn effortless and unstoppable by "dirty IB BANKERS" pressing down

Tsh shall rise up!!!

TO CALVIN TSH NOW IS A GREAT VALUE BUY AMONG ALL 42 PLANTATION STOCKS LISTED IN KLSE

......
Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-30 11:52 | Report Abuse

Don't bother with IB call warrants as Tsh Resources strong fundamental and explosive cash windfall from assets disposal plus earnings from high Cpo prices will surely and steadily to it's historic high Rm4.02 again

Yes Calvin's stronger buy call is Tsh resources by virtue of it being the laggard now

........

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-30 21:11 | Report Abuse

No Aeon

Palm oil cpo over Rm7000 per ton so we are in palm oil superbull

Warren Buffet said if he is out looking for a 7 footer a 5.5 feet won't do

What he meant is this

If you are out looking for a man 7 feet tall a person only 5.5 feet will not do

So palm oil is offering 200% or more profit while is a mediocre at only 6% to 8% real profit


sunnyspoon

339 posts

Posted by sunnyspoon > 2022-04-30 21:36 | Report Abuse

Indonesia still ban on exporting palm oil. Until when don't know, 3 months may be 6 months, TSH price can go anyway. More will sell again


calvintaneng

51,088 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-30 21:42 | Report Abuse

Do you know ?

Palm fruits unlike canola or sunflower are harvested every two weeks

As such the storage capacity will be full in just one month as fruitful times are here plus Indonesia got abundant workers

Storage capacity will overflow and Indonesia will still have to export again

Now we already know next month in May 2022 Results will include sale of Sabah lands worth Rm248 millions


>>>>>

>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-25 10:55 | Report Abuse

Just hold tight

Few more weeks

Tsh will report a very nice profit from Sabah land sale of 7.56 sen

Plus earnings from operation and remeasurement gain of 21.95% from inno the profit is double digits

Policy is to give 60% dividend from profit

SURE THOSE SELL TOO EARLY WILL REGRET LATER

THOSE WHO HOLD WILL BE RICHLY REWARDED

NAYSAYERS WILL GNASH THEIR TEETH

WE WILL REJOICE AND BE HAPPY

.....

Posted by calviniswrong > 2022-04-25 12:56 | Report Abuse

TSH Resources Berhad is currently the most overbought stock by retail investors. Which means TSH is now the weakest plantation stock. Price target is RM0.80
Too many retail investor will keep dropping


calvintaneng

51,088 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-25 13:52 | Report Abuse

the entity behind this spammer telling people about 80 sen is just too foolish

Director Tan Aik Pen already bought 16 million shares at average price of Rm1.643
and his total cost is over Rm26 millions on margin at 7% to 13% interest rate

So let all bear this in mind that Insider bosses are very bullish on Tsh resources

.....

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-25 16:20 | Report Abuse

Calvin operasi tong sampah now on

see which weak holders will let go cheap

//////

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-25 18:07 | Report Abuse

Wall street rookie

Calvin is full of 101% confidence in Tsh and bought more today

.......

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-25 18:18 | Report Abuse

Last time already got 30% retention for domestic market and after that it was lifted

So Matter of time policy will change again

But export of palm oil is not our main focus in Tsh

Our main focus is in its 5 gold mine lands

in bulungan Regency
Sale of over 30,000 acres will bring in Rm712 millions

And that will be 31 sen profit

After that still got 4 pieces of prime lands in Kutai/Nusantara new Capital of indonesia with 94,700 acres more than half the size of Singapore landmass of 180,000 acres

Tsh cost of investment as low as 13 sen pdf

If sold will unleash huge profits


so we invest longer term

Those who cannot wait and feel itchy may sell and go punt others

As for Calvin he will hold tight tight and buy more on weakness

.......

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-28 17:01 | Report Abuse

Hi guys

Calvin managed to buy some Tsh at Rm1.67 today

looking for more bullets to buy Tsh on weakness again

Must thank all naysayers causing fearful hands to throw cheap to Calvin and friends

Terima Kasih

kamsiah

Arogato gonsaimas

>>>>>>>>>>>>

<<<<<<<
Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-02-24 19:10 | Report Abuse

Rm1.60 only?

Hold tight till Dec 2022 and expect Rm2 to Rm3 target my friend

----

Posted by Goldgent > 2022-03-11 09:16 | Report Abuse

TSH chairman Kelvin consistent buy in the past 2 weeks.
TAN AIK PEN 10-Mar-2022 Acquired 150,000
TAN AIK PEN 09-Mar-2022 Acquired 200,000
TAN AIK PEN 08-Mar-2022 Acquired 200,000
TAN AIK PEN 07-Mar-2022 Acquired 200,000
TAN AIK PEN 04-Mar-2022 Acquired 200,000
TAN AIK PEN 03-Mar-2022 Acquired 1,000,000
TAN AIK PEN 02-Mar-2022 Acquired 1,500,000
TAN AIK PEN 28-Feb-2022 Acquired 2,500,000
TAN AIK PEN 25-Feb-2022 Acquired 2,000,000

====

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-06 16:19 | Report Abuse

Thought today no more below Rm1.70?

But managed to grab some at Rm1.69

Queueing more to buy on weakness now

This may well be our final chance to get below Rm1.70

____

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-18 00:31 | Report Abuse

Superbull is now confirmed


1. in few weeks time both Sunflower oil and canola oil will be depleted

Soyoil already powered above 78 sen (was 25 sen not long ago)

So Cpo prices will rise up to cross Rm7000 per ton again solidly

This is an engine of growth for Tsh

The second engine of growth will be the sale of Sabah lands to be reported next month

then sale of Bulugan Regency land will come plus the Spectacular Explosive Bonanza if any one piece of Nusantara land is sold will propel Tsh to over Rm3 or Rm4 easily effortlessly

++++++++

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-24 17:00 | Report Abuse

Tsh does not depend on palm oil operation in Indonesia anymore as it has a change of fortune

Tsh hit 5 jackpots

One Bulugan estates sold Rm712 Mil to earn 31 sen a share

4 more in Nusantara if sold then Tsh will rise to Rm10 easily

______

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-02 23:06 | Report Abuse

Warren Buffet said

"Be greedy when others are fearful"

smart hands buy in fear not chase during euphoria

--------

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-07 23:13 | Report Abuse

Happy weekend till year end hold TSH tightly

Canola oil at world record
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/canola

TSH GOING TO RM4.00 IS A GIVEN

ANYTHING BELOW RM2.00 FOR TSH JUST COLLECT AS 100% PROFIT IS EXPECTED FOR ALL HOLDERS

______
>>>>>>>>

>>>>



calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 21 May 2022, 03:28 PM
Dear friends,

We are very happy to do another write up again on Tsh Resources

Things are getting very clear as we move forward

And these are some salient factors

1) TSH RESOURCES IS VERY UNDERVALUE

Tsh has 80% palm oil estates in Indonesia.

So is Bumitama with 100% Palm oil estates in Indonesia & Goldenagri also got majority palm oil estates in Indonesia

Latest news tell us that Indonesia has uplifted Palm oil export ban

Now we bought TSH at Rm1.10, Bumitama at 46 sen (Spore) & Goldenagri 14 sen (Spore)

Of of now TSH is up 30%, Bumitama up 60% & Goldenagri up by more than 100%



Since Indonesia has a higher levy & export tax and yet both Bumitama & Goldenagri up 60% to 100% we deem the price of TSH too cheap to ignore


TSH Now Rm1,45

Our Target Price Rm4.00 (One year)

See by May 31st 2023 TSH will have reached Rm4.00 or not



Best regards

Calvin Tan


https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2022-05-21-story-h1623337280-TSH_RESOURCES_9059_A_PALM_OIL_STOCK_WITH_GOOD_CLARITY_PROSPECTS_INSIDER
>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/financial-quarter/9059?type=quarter

>>>>
TSH historical share price

From 2021 to now, its share price hovered for the most part within the range of RM1.23 to 92 sen, except for a short few months period from Jan 2022 to July 2022, when its price rose from RM 1.10 in Jan 2022 to peak at RM 1.80 in April 2022 and back to 96 sen in July 2022.

calvintaneng was promoting this stock very aggressively and enthusiastically when its price was at RM 1.78 then.

>>>>

CPO historical price movement

Low price in April 2020.
Climbed to its highest and peaked in April 2022.
Tumbled from this peak price down to its trough in October 2022.


TSH historical share price

Rose from RM 1.10 in Jan 2022
Peaked at RM 1.80 in April 2022
Dropped back to 96 sen in July 2022.

From years 2013 to 2022, TSH has
-Total EPS of 93.8 sen per share
- Distributed 29 sen per shares as dividends.

DPO ratio = 30.9%

For FYE 2022, its PBT income was 507 m.
Of this, the non-operating income was 316 m.
Its EPS for FYE 2022 was 33.14 sen.

I calculated its normalised EPS (excluding the non-operating income) to be 12.48 sen per share for the FYE 2022.

Will its normalised EPS be better or worse than this for FYE 2023?