It is always better to own a quality company at fair price than to own a lousy company at bargain price. This applies to those who like to own companies for the long term.

Caveat emptor. My fair value maybe absolutely wrong.

At price of 99 sen per share, its market cap today is 1.36 billion. Its PE ratio 3.99. Its DY 2.53%.

This DY cannot be sustained as the company paid a special dividend to reward its shareholders from the profit of sale of its assets, and this is non-recurrent.

As for the PE of 3.99, this low PE reflects the sentiment in the market that its future earnings will normalise in the future. Its 1H 2023 EPS is 2.90 sen. Annualise this, the EPS for the whole year maybe 6 sen. At 99 sen per share, its PE will be 99/6 = 16.5x.

Note that its earnings for the latest 3 qtrs showed a declining trend in the EPS.

I thought the fair value for this stock should be around RM 1.00 and with the need to have a margin of safety of 30%, perhaps, will look at this stock when it is around 70 sen per share, for short term punting only.

TSH historical share price

From 2021 to now, its share price hovered for the most part within the range of RM1.23 to 92 sen, except for a short few months period from Jan 2022 to July 2022, when its price rose from RM 1.10 in Jan 2022 to peak at RM 1.80 in April 2022 and back to 96 sen in July 2022.

calvintaneng was promoting this stock very aggressively and enthusiastically when its price was at RM 1.78 then.

For its FYE Dec 2022
Non Operating Income RM 316 m (from sale of plantation asset)

1H 2023 Financial Result for TSH
1H2023 …. Rev (RM ,000) …. Net Prof (RM ,000) …. EPS (sen) …. Div (sen) …. NTA (RM)
1H 2023 .... 506,868 .... 39,990 .... 2.90 .... 0.00 .... 1.513

Quarterly results of TSH
Qtr …. Rev (RM ,000) …. Net Prof (RM ,000) …. EPS (sen) …. Div (sen) …. NTA (RM)
Q2 Jun 23 …. 256,570 …. 10,562 …. 0.77 …. 0.00 …. 1.513
Q1 Mar 23 …. 250,298 …. 29,428 …. 2.13 …. 0.00 …. 1.445
Q4 Dec 22 …. 283,384 …. 45,257 …. 3.28 …. 2.50 …. 1.378
Q3 Sep 22 …. 262,652 …. 258,428 …. 18.72 …. 8.00 …. 1.507
Q2 Jun 22 …. 424,413 …. 57,335 …. 4.15 …. 0.00 …. 1.286
Q1 Mar 22 …. 337,349 …. 101,864 …. 6.99 …. 0.00 …. 1.263
Q4 Dec 21 …. 328,350 …. 63,433 …. 4.6 …. 3.00 …. 1.189
Q3 Sep 21 …. 309,074 …. 45,078 …. 3.27 …. 0.00 …. 1.139
Q2 Jun 21 …. 307,414 …. 39,715 …. 2.88 …. 0.00 …. 1.082
Q1 Mar 21 …. 198,717 …. 20,783 …. 1.51 …. 0.00 …. 1.064
Q4 Dec 20 …. 195,241 …. 32,954 …. 2.39 …. 1.50 …. 1.053
Q3 Sep 20 …. 194,170 …. 24,068 …. 1.74 …. 0.00 …. 1.003
Q2 Jun 20 …. 210,566 …. 19,818 …. 1.44 …. 0.00 …. 1.083
Q1 Mar 20 …. 257,388 …. 2,254 …. 0.16 …. 0.00 …. 0.917

TSH
FYE …. Rev (RM ,000) …. Net Prof (RM ,000) …. EPS (sen) …. Div (sen) …. NTA (RM) …. ROE
2022 …. 557,035 …. 462,884 …. 33.14 …. 10.50 …. 1.378 …. 24.0%
2021 …. 235,728 …. 169,009 …. 12.26 …. 3.00 …. 1.189 …. 10.3%
2020 …. 120,548 …. 79,094 …. 5.73 …. 1.50 …. 1.053 …. 5.4%
2019 …. 73,794 …. 44,034 …. 3.19 …. 1.00 …. 1.043 …. 3.1%
2018 …. 81,330 …. 40,099 …. 2.91 …. 1.00 …. 0.991 …. 2.9%
2017 …. 192,094 …. 113,968 …. 8.36 …. 2.00 …. 1.067 …. 7.8%
2016 …. 161,341 …. 56,521 …. 4.2 …. 2.00 …. 1.117 …. 3.8%
2015 …. -81,862 …. -98,997 …. -7.31 …. 2.00 …. 1.015 …. -7.2%
2014 …. 170,782 …. 125,489 …. 13.49 …. 2.50 …. 0.89 …. 15.2%
2013 …. 165,818 …. 153,098 …. 17.83 …. 3.50 …. 1.188 …. 15.0%

Calvintan was bullish on TSH when it was priced around RM 1.80 per share. However, he never shared how he value TSH. What was his intrinsic value for TSH? Presumably at multiples of RM 1.80.

True to his style and past behaviour, he continues with his promotion of TSH, based on the value of its various assets, it sales of asset to pare down its humongous previous debts and the proximity of its land to Nusantara.

His style has not changed. Netx was going to benefit greatly from NFCP. Calvin spoke to Ms Penelope. That telephone call was so important, everyone must know of this. Netx used to do some job in laying for Telecom, they were supremely well placed to benefit. Alas, the business world is highly competitive. Alas. Another was GSB. GSB was going to sell a hotel for RM12 million. This meant GSB would be transformed into a fantastic company. He then shared various calculations that showed its price might go up many folds, just like he did in Netx.

Good morning.

Oil price crosses above US$90

Picking apples in UK ????

PBB and HLB ... good for the long term.

Peter Lynch said that if you spent 10 minutes analysing the macro-economy, you had wasted 10 minutes which you could have spent productively investigating a company and its stock. I agree.

Look at inefficiency in the market, when the stock is mispriced.
Take big swings when a big opportunity comes along. (Baseball analogy) Be patient.
Don;t be afraid of a concentrated portfolio.

Be charitable when you are able.

You only need to do a few things.
You are not going to find a million ideas.

Investing is simple but not easy. :-)

Prospects
Glove Division
The rubber glove market remains lacklustre as the prevailing unfavourable demand-supply dynamic continues to re-balance itself post-pandemic. The over-supply situation is expected to moderate gradually as more and more of the smaller players exit the market. Some of the big players are also scaling back their expansion and retiring older factories and production lines. Nevertheless, average selling prices (ASPs) remain suppressed and a meaningful market recovery may only take place sometime late into year 2024.

At the present time, new contracts secured by the Supermax Group are at prevailing low prices and low margins. The Group does not expect to see a significant improvement in performance in the near to medium term owing to the high volume of high-priced stocks at its overseas distribution centres. For its manufacturing division, in preparing for better times ahead, Supermax has shut down 4 of its old plants over the last 1¾ years. Meanwhile, the plan to build 6 new modern and more efficient manufacturing blocks is still in place, with production lines being installed gradually at a pace that takes into account the current and expected market conditions.

The construction of the Group’s USA plant is also underway and is very much in response to the steps taken by an increasing number of countries including the US which are taking steps to re-shore or shore-up domestic production to ensure security of supply especially in times of crises.

The Company is also continuing to engage with the US CBP to demonstrate the huge strides made in improving its human resource policies and procedures including actively reaching out to all former workers for the purpose of remediation. The Group has thus far paid out a total of RM 41.2 million in remediation payments to existing and former workers.

As the Group refreshes more of its production capacity by replacing old lines with newer highcapacity high efficiency lines and at the same time maintaining its existing work force through redeployment to newer plants, expect to see Supermax continuing to put itself in a strong position to take advantage when the glove market regains its vibrancy sometime in the next 5 – 6 quarters.

The improved performance is mainly due to the factors as follows:
- Average selling prices (ASPs) have stabilised and have improved slightly.
- Increased capacity utilisation rate as demand has started to improve albeit moderately. The
significant overstocking built up as a result of over-buying during the pandemic has started to
deplete appreciably and some re-stocking is taking place again.
- Improving economies of scale as the capacity utilisation improves.

Calvintan, cleverness, clairvoyance
3Cs. :-)


Calvintan is a top down clown analyst. :-)
Better to use a bottom up approach.

Your homework checklist:
1. Know how this company makes money
2. Be able to articulate a thesis for owning the stock
3. Understand how the stock price could increase or decrease
4. Start off as a skeptic of any stock
5. Don't buy into the hype machine

Learning from the mistakes of calvintaneng

Your homework checklist:
1. Know how this company makes money
2. Be able to articulate a thesis for owning the stock
3. Understand how the stock price could increase or decrease
4. Start off as a skeptic of any stock
5. Don't buy into the hype machine

>>>>
calvintaneng

Berlin

Bplant was 57 sen in year 2021
After 24 sen dividend its price readjust to 33 sen

Now Klk offers Rm1.55 to take it private

From 33 sen to Rm1.55 is up 469%

For Fgv buy call was around Rm1.10 and now up to Rm1.41 or gained 28%
If we add another 11 sen for Fgv dividend the yield is 38%

For the rest their time will come as well

And i will wait

>>>>

He who promoted everything, promoted nothing.

Newly listed. Will need to see its 5 years track record.
How strong is its economic moat? No unique product or unique service.
Is this a competitive business? Who are its competitors?

For plantation stocks, look at Kim Loong and United Plantation.

Yes, PMX is doing something good for Forest City.

The types of stocks in our market:
Growth
Cyclical
Defensive

LPI Capital's 2Q net profit up 19% on stronger general insurance contribution
By Justin Lim / theedgemalaysia.com
25 Aug 2023, 06:21 pm

main news image
KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 25): LPI Capital Group Bhd’s net profit rose 19.42% to RM63.94 million in the second quarter ended June 30, 2023 (2QFY2023), from RM53.52 million a year ago, driven by higher earnings contribution from the general insurance segment amid higher investment return. Earnings per share increased to 16.05 sen from 13.44 sen.

Revenue came in at RM462.36 million, 14.39% higher than the RM404.22 million reported for 2QFY2022, on the back of higher insurance revenue, according to the group's bourse filing on Friday (Aug 25).

The insurer, founded by the late banking magnate Tan Sri Teh Hong Piow, declared a first interim dividend of 26 sen per share, compared to 25 sen last year. Totalling RM103.6 million, the dividend represents 75.2% of the group’s net profit attributable to shareholders. It will be paid on Sept 20.


For the cumulative six months ended June 30, LPI Capital's net profit grew 16.34% to RM137.78 million, from RM118.42 million in the previous January-June period, as revenue expanded 12.84% to RM925.66 million from RM820.31 million.

The better first-half profitability was contributed by higher profit contributions from the general insurance segment, which recorded higher investment return due to net fair value gains of RM17 million in its investment portfolio, compared with net fair value losses of RM11.1 million previously.

The increase in revenue for the six-month period was also driven by the general insurance segment. However, it was offset by the investment holding segment, which recorded lower contributions due to lower dividends received.

Looking ahead, LPI said it will continue efforts to expand its insurance market share, especially in the fire and miscellaneous accident insurance segments.

On top of that, it will also seek new opportunities through various government initiatives.

“With prudent underwriting and claims management as its core business philosophy, LPI group also aims to improve the insurance service result in the second half of FY2023,” the group added.

At Friday's closing bell, LPI shares settled unchanged at RM11.86, valuing the group at RM4.73 billion. Over the past one year, the stock has dropped 10%.

Watching paint dry

Nestle
DLady
Petronas Dagangan
Petgas
PBB
Maybank
Heim
iCAP
AeonCredit
Coastal
Bonia
HLBank
PPB
UMW
GENM
LPI
Hartalega
Topglove
Penta
TongHerr
Scientex
MYEG

I rarely / almost never trade stocks. I like to own stocks for the long term. Therefore, I have to choose stocks that can be owned for the long term profitably.

Some stocks are for trading only. Only a few stocks can be held long term. Such stocks are almost never sold.

Since 2019, I have sold 1 stock totally and 1 stock partially. :-)

Many in Ipoh who believed in Tan Sri Lee Loy Seng and invested in KLK from its early years are millionaires today.

After KLK buying over BPlantation, the higher likelihood will be this plantation will be delisted and parked within KLK.

In my town, about 95% of students in government schools are Malays. With more non-Chinese choosing to study in Chinese schools, the Chinese schools are slightly more multi-cultural and multi-racial compared to the government schools.

A lot of debates on issues regarding government and Chinese schools. Yet, there is a huge proliferation of International schools in many big towns in Malaysia. These have not attracted much debates or controversies to date. Interesting indeed.

Those who attend Chinese vernacular schools and who are good, can master B.M., English and Chinese in that environment. These skills equip them very well for a better future, given the importance of China, US & English speaking allies and Indonesia in this region.

Padini
FY ending 30.6.2023
EPS is at historical high level of 33.85 sen per share.
DPS for this year 11.50 sen per share.

YoY
Revenue 1822m
Gross Profit 718m
GPM 39%
PBT 296m
PBTM 16.2%
EPS 33.85 sen

OPBCWC 419m
Capex 26.4m

Cash 605m
ST Borrowings 3.9m
NA per share RM1.58
ROE 21.4%

Despite retailing being a very challenging sector, Padini seems to be the "king among local retailers", This company has given fantastic returns to those who invested in it from its earlier years, when its price per share was less than 50 sen (adjusted for capital changes to date.)

Wealth is created by finding these companies and staying in them for the long term.

Latest quarterly results continue to be good. ROE 13%.
A good company in one's portfolio, hardly have to be monitored.
DY is in the 4% range.
Has this stock since its listing on Bursa.

Never just look at price.
There was a time when someone mentioned to me that Jaks at 40 sen and below was safe to plough money into.
Imagine, what was low, has got lower.

Always look at the quality of a company first. If this criteria is not met, move on to another. Do not even look further.

Note that SIME does not intent to maintain the listing status of UMW.
UMW was just performing better the last 1 year or so, and alas, its taken over by another company.

You can either sell now and reinvest into another stock.
Alternatively, you can wait for Sime Darby to take your share at RM 5.00 at a not too distant future date.

For a long time, calvintan has posted many recommendations in i3. These are welcome but often he did not appear to be honest, from my observations.

AFTER the CPO prices climbed and continued to climb 2 years ago, he started promoting the plantation stocks. At its peak, he continued to promote these stocks.

I came across TSH and his wanton promotion at the time when the price of TSH was around RM 1.70. I did a valuation and thought its fair value was perhaps RM 1.00 and demanding a 30% margin of safety, proposed that a safe price to buy would be 70 sen.

At the RM 1.70 price, calvintan promoted it was undervalued. Its true value was very much higher. A lot higher. Why? So much land in Nusantara. So much cash generated from selling estates which will pare down the debts. All these are known facts to all. Also, looked at the insider buying 500,000 shares incessantly non-stop for so many months. The insiders cannot be wrong (yes, often true too).

But plantation is a capital intensive slow growth business that has to be carefully managed. The CPO price is cyclical. The very good price at the peak, was not sustained for very long. Every owner of plantation felt very happy during this period, but just for a few months. (Personal experience too.)

Now the price of TSH is nearer RM 1.00, occasionally penny range. calvintan changed his tune. This time, it is undervalued, and you should buy.

Thus, at RM 1.78, it was undervalued. The true value was much higher according to calvintaneng. At RM 1.00, yes, it is definitely better value than when it was at RM 1.78. But what is the potential upside versus the potential downside at $1.00 today?

My conclusion of having observed Mr. Calvin is be wary.

Improved margins ahead. We expect a stronger 2H in terms of sales, especially in 4Q due to seasonality. DLADY is also poised for improved margins given the softening soft commodity prices.

We like DLADY for: (i) its resilient top line underpinned by steady demand for staple food items despite an uncertain global economic outlook, (ii) the upside potential of its margins (beyond FY23) given the softening food commodity prices, (iii) its strong brand recognition and increasing awareness of the nutritional value of dairy products.

Kenanga

SIME is extending a Mandatory General Offer (MGO) for UMW shares at RM5.00 per piece, following its proposed acquisition of a 61.18% stake in UMW from Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB) and Amanahraya Trustees Berhad (ART) for RM3,574m or RM5.00 per share in cash. We recommend ACCEPT OFFER as we believe the MGO price is a good exit price for minority shareholders.

SIME takes over UMW. SIME (OP; TP: RM2.40) has proposed to acquire 61.18% stake of UMW from PNB and ART for RM3,574m or RM5.00 per share cash (8% premium to the last traded price of RM4.62). In accordance with the Malaysian Code on Take-overs and Mergers, SIME will undertake a mandatory general offer (MGO) for the remaining shares it does not own in UMW Holdings Berhad from minority shareholders at RM5.00 per share in cash as well, valuing the whole deal at RM5,841.5m. SIME does not intend to maintain the listing status of UMW. The proposed acquisition and MGO is expected to be completed by 4QCY23 and 1QCY24, respectively.

Acquisition PER of 13.2x and PBV of 1.2x.

$4.77

Dutch Lady: Focuses on cash flow management amid challenging market . Dutch Lady Milk Industries (DLMI) will continue to strictly manage its cash flow to steer the company in a tough market and manage internal financing for the new facility construction in Bandar Enstek, according to MD Ramjeet Kaur Virik. DLMI is investing RM540m in the new world-class manufacturing plant under construction in Bandar Enstek. The manufacturing plant will be fully operational within the course of 2024. (StarBiz)

3 segments: Bio-Energy, Water Treatment and Solar Energy.

Over the last 6 years (2017 to 2023), its revenue CAGR was 14.2% and its earnings CAGR was 8.3%.

In the medium and long term, the Group's strategy is well aligned with the government's renewable energy initiatives and global energy transition. The Group is well positioned to capture growth opportunities in Environment, Social and Governance (“ESG”) space. The Board is confident in delivering satisfactory growth and improved profitability for the financial year barring any external factors not within the control of the Company.

The milk commodity price has fallen from May 2022 (US 25/CWT) to July 2023 (US 14/CWT).

Recent weakness of Malaysian ringgit affects its profits adversely.

DLady is still able to grow its top line revenue y-o-y.

2023-08-24

Price Target

TSH Resources - Expecting a Strong Catch-Up in 2H
Source : PUBLIC BANK, Price Call : HOLD, Price Target : 1.10
Last Price : 0.995, Upside/Downside : +0.105(10.55%)

2023-08-24

Price Target

TSH Resources - Not Out of the Woods
Source : KENANGA, Price Call : HOLD, Price Target : 1.00
Last Price : 0.995, Upside/Downside : +0.005(0.50%)

2023-08-24

Price Target

TSH Resources - Weak FFB output growth
Source : AmInvest, Price Call : HOLD, Price Target : 1.05
Last Price : 0.995, Upside/Downside : +0.055(5.53%)


Read the Kenanga analyst report, which is the best of these three.

Financial Qtr ending 30.6.2023

Demand for milk remains strong. Operating profit increased due to softening of dairy raw materials, but negatively impacted by weak Malaysian ringgit currency. The global dairy prices remain historically at high levels, but are expected to soften further in the remainder of 2023.

Over the long term, the outlook for DLMI remains cautiously optimistic due to the
strength of our brands, and the increasing need for and recognition of the goodness
and nutritional value of milk amongst Malaysians. The Company will continue to
support the local dairy farmers and increase the quantity and quality of local fresh
milk.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2023/08/24/pnb-umw-holdings-sime-darby-merger-in-line-with-govts-new-industrial-master-plan-2030/86988

Sime Darby merger with UMW

Thank you PMX. Thank you for focusing and prioritising on the most important issues.

Any news yet.