Tambun is a lesson in "what is already cheap can become much cheaper".

The people who paid 1.2 above, it was cheap-ish then. But at 0.95, its quite attractive given the type of property development company it is. Its nowhere near as good NTA or RNAV wise compared to say ORIENT, DAIMAN or PLENITUDE, but this company is much much more efficient with its capital allocation that those above, and yet, it trades at such low valuation.

Need to wait? At this kind of price, i can wait forever hahaha. Only question now is, where to find the money to buy, sell or deposit in money =(

Ok, i want me some tambun.

Bought a bit more at 3.11 to average down.

Well, come down to RM3.

All already priced in.

Most of the loan is fixed rate, so no gain there.


thurston So many good news for MBSB
1. Dividend 5 cents
2. Good Q4 2017 financial results
3. 2017 profit double up
4. Bank license obtained.
5. Interest rate up 0.25%

So, got chance limit up on Friday?

Well... I think we now have a net net company.

I hope you get to keep it.


goreng_kaki I AM 26 YEARS OLD, MONTHLY INCOME ONLY RM 3,500.
TOTAL WEALTH RM 170,000.00 (CASH+SHARES)

MY ADVICE:


GORENG STOCK
30/01/2018 12:44

Wow, even the people who bought about 5 years ago will have lost money.

Except, netted off got about extra 10 sen in div.

really want some now. But, my god, high capex co in cost based industry, the business is not nice at all. But at the right price..

If will limit up why need let people know? go 3x margin, borrow money from father mother, uncle auntie loan shark and buy lah.

My average is 3.9.

Previously sold out completely at 4.1, cost then was 3.09. Then after the fire i bought some at 4. Will probably buy more this month.

Either way, i hold both, with liihen being a bit bigger. Will probably buy more liihen next month.

I somewhat prefer liihen, not as undervalued, but management appear more competent and is more shareholder centric. Except they have very undemanding valuations. Also, with rubberwood export banned in malaysia, should be a big plus for them.

This! My goal for this year is to spend more. I save and invest close to 80% or more of my income.

Need to enjoy more.

VenFx Maybe can add 1 more elements,
SPEND your 5% of total income to get a change to taste or learn new experiences & skill.
29/01/2018 19:47

Barely above 15. It would have been ~20% if not for my gross misjudgment and inexperience on several stocks.

If i can get 15-20% per annum for 50 years, i and my investors will very happy. In any event, records done during bull periods don't mean much. Its how you do during recession that counts.



CharlesT I pressume yr return is less than 15% last year...no bad is better than calvin but still in bottom 50
29/01/2018 07:17

I topped up a week or 2 back at 3.3

I'm now waiting for 3.0. Come to daddy.

True. There is nothing wrong. Every market need a speculator, if everyone like warren buffet kiamsiap as hell, market no need exist d.

But its important to know the pro and cons of your position. Which people often do not.


Posted by simplasimon > Jan 28, 2018 09:17 PM | Report Abuse

FA or TA , no problem , as long we make money , nothing wrong with being a speculator , or investor , at the end , it's still a bet .



I'll show it to you when it becomes meaningful, with both bull and bear periods. I think in 2023 - 2025. We should have had 1 or more years of bull before the crash.

In any event, i show you also no point. Its not like you're paying me RM1,000 for a subscription, nor am i asking you to invest with me.

I'm also primarily process based. So if that is your first question, not that interested in you as an investor d. Its a question i expect to be asked by my investors, but only at the end of the discussion.

Posted by Babihutan88 > Jan 28, 2018 09:04 PM | Report Abuse

No need fight. Show yr prove track record. If no track record say wat also no use.

Dear Mr Ooi,

On the statement with KCC, i'm fairly certain you said something to that respect in one of your comments i read a long time ago. But i'm not going to argue that point or find the time to go find it again. Consider it my mistake.

You have done well since 2009?

Well, so did my mom who took out all the money in 2008 to buy a house, and just started buying after the crisis. And her style is very crude, just see if she knows the name of the company, and roughly whats the average historic price of it based on her experience. If the price is low, just buy every month, no need to think, don't even need to read annual report.

With respect, 2009 to now is a bull market. Every bull market have their minor bear moments, every bear market/recession have bull moments.

There were even bull periods in the recession of late 2007 to 2009.

In 2007, after the initial fall of some CDO's, the federal reserve governor said that the impact is limited, and there was a few weeks of constant rises, where EMA was probably positivetive.

Until the fall of Lehman brothers, when it drops again, before the federal reserve governor say, it is only limited to Lehman due to Lehman being more risky. That there is no systemic risk. So market go up again, cause people not see got discount!

Until they take Bear Sterns out on the street and shoot it in the head. Oh boy the suddenly, definitely got systemic risk and everyone die for you to see.

I am not denying the brilliance of your bet on Masteel at 0.5, or that it was the best among all the rebar companies.

Yes you made 100%. But i doubt the people who buy Masteel now will make 100% (especially over a 5 year period), i may very well be wrong.

I can think of a lot of your Ms Universe picks who, if your followers buy late (despite it still being in the list), they will have lost money.

What i really want to see, is your returns from 2009 to 2030. I hope you really are that good, and all your followers become very rich. But in my own humble perspective, i'm not that certain. Again, i may very well be wrong, and i hope i'm wrong. Its sad to see people lose money.

On you being a speculator or whatever nice things others or you want to call yourselves, Trader, momentum trader etc.

I stand by it. The concept of cutting loss and letting your winners run come fundamentally from a gambling perspective. This was appropriated into trading in equities or commodities. Why? Because in these scenarios, the fundamentals means very little, but the movement in price does. Which makes it very much like gambling.

The investor is someone who buys more and more as prices go down, and sells more and more as prices go up.

A trader or speculator, attempts to time the market, to buy it when prices have moved up already (but before the boom), and to sell when prices are starting to move down (but before the crash). This can often work in the short term.

But it fails in the long term, or when capital is too much. Doing it consistently is the difficult part. I can barely think of one more other than George Soros who did this, and even he stop doing it d.

Good luck. i hope you keep making you and your investors more money.

Great piece as always. Id love to meet up for teh tarik some time. Let me know if you're ever back in malaysia.

cresbinvest,

You are right as well. There is a chinese saying, the old man has eaten more salt than the young man have eaten rice.

However, it would be foolish to automatically assume what your elders say is correct, and it would also be foolish to assume what the younger person is saying is wrong.

Your idea and analysis needs to stand on its own. Not on the other's reputation.

If your way of investing is by relying solely on reputation and track record. How can you criticize if a rural Malays votes BN solely based on their track record?

Every time BN wants vote, just point at KLCC and say we built that. What have the opposition built? Nothing!

It does not make sense!


CharlesT,

You are also correct. However, what is your analysis period? The last 4-5 years? OTB himself said his returns was rubbish until 4 years ago when he learn some FA from Kcchongnz.

What is 4 to 5 years in the history of the markets, very close to nothing. Especially if they are bull years.

As i said, lets see how effective this theory is during a recession. Alot of things that work during periods of good time, turn out to just be spurious correlation when shit hits the fan.

KYY also likes to sell. he was almost scared out of his wits when Hengyuan move abit. In the last few recessions, he was not in the market, allowing him to buy in then. Both for the Hong Kong crisis and the his KLSE record in the last 4-5 years.

Now that both of them appear to be 100% in the market, it would be very interesting to see their record in the next impending one.



YLR33,

Yes! Question is this. When the price have gone up 500% or more over the last 2 year. What part of the cycle are you at? The peak or the bottom? =)

George Soros is a world class speculator, and today he also hold Berkshire Hathaway. But don't forget, he is a speculator, and one that have not died in the market yet.

And here's the funnier thing, for the last few decades, he has barely speculated anymore, except with small amounts of money. The vast majority of his wealth is in long term holdings.

Makes you think.

Nobody says he never bought good companies as well.

The problem here is, there is an ugly tint to be called a speculator.

Well, if you want, feel free to call him a trader. A mid term trader. A sentiment with FA trader. A momentum trader. Or even fund manager.

But lets not jump straight to calling him a investor much less a true blue value investor.

How can you be an investor if you have a cut loss? Shouldn't the companies you like become more attractive in the event of a fall in price? Shouldn't it be called a "Buy more!" price?

It very dangerous. Imagine the last person to buy the shares in Masteel before the fall because OTB tell him the share price is cheap at 8 P/E conveniently forgetting to mention its a cyclical stock, at peak earnings and huge debts.

Unless he got infinite money and can average down to kingdom come. He will definitely make quite a severe loss. And even if he an average down, it will be a long long time before he see's a profit.

Albukhary,

Precisely! You got it =) Which is why i say it is a gamble, because from an owner's perspective, its very hard to justify the purchase, but from a gambler's one. Its quite attractive.

Remember, when buying these kind of stock imagine you are going to genting, except, maybank will cover 70% of your loss and give you 100% of the gain (technically).

Its an attractive and admitted gamble.

On the borrowings part. You are also correct. Most banks borrowed the money during boom times, not taking into account reversion to the mean? Why? Greed and a lack of fear due to management being agents and not owners!

Except for public bank (and to a small extent Hong Leong Bank), the banks in malaysia are not owned by the person running the bank! So for example, as a CEO of say Maybank, my goal is to do my job in an acceptable or great manner in the medium to short term, take my fat bonus and run away.

I dont care if 5-10 years down the line the company cannot pay back the loan i give. I have already taken my bonus and go to another bank already.

Public Bank on the other hand, Teh Hong Piow holds the control and his entire net worth is in the bank. I guarantee you, any loan above RM50- RM100mil, he will look personally.

Brightsmart,

You are right. In times of boom, a lot of method work better than value investing. Momentum lah, growth lah, etc etc. But during recession, value investing works the best. And over a long period of time (10-50 years), this is the method to follow.

But lets be honest, value investing is really the only of investing. Value investing is paying less than what something is really worth.

So you could say the real worth of the book value, current earnings, or if you're a growth guy, future earnings, or if you're a venture capital guy, future market share or position in the market.

Everyone have their predilection and biases. I have never met an investor who was a growth and bull investor, up until the very peak where he disposed exactly on time. And then as the price fall, he becomes a value net net investor etc etc.

Chances are he lost a good part his gains during the fall.

As i wrote in my previous article, the majority of gains is due to large asset buybacks by the central banks of the big 4.

I remember seeing a chart, where they showed the net worth of a person who only invested in S&P500 versus the person who invested only in Fixed Deposits for 50 years. At the peak of the 2008 crisis, the compounded net worth of the person who invested in the S&P500 actually fell below that of the person who put it into fixed deposits.

Wow. Incredible.

Before the subsequent rally due to large asset buybacks that saved everyone.

Its like Datuk Quek's (Hong Leong Boss) son. He open startup, take RM15 million from daddy, burn it all but still ok in the end, since he was saved by his father.

Investing with the mindset that there will always be someone out there to save your ass is not the right way to go about it i reckon.

Mr Ooi,

Lets get a few things straight. I respect you quite a bit. When it comes to your picks, at least the ones that get publicized. I make sure to study it in depth.

And as a sign of respect, i will reply you thoroughly

Just because one is a speculator with some investor mindset, does not mean one cannot get the kind of track record you did.

Richard Dennis, one of the best commodities speculators in the world, turned USD1,600 (actually only USD400 was used since he paid USD1,200 in fees for a seat at the exchange), into USD 1 million in just slightly over 3 years. A far better record than yours!

And just because one is a speculator, does not mean one is inferior to an investor. A market must have both.

I would consider you as one of the most best, and most thorough speculator in i3.At least among those known in the public sphere. The depth of your research is quite good for one, at least in KLSE.

How do we differentiate between investing and speculating? Often the lines between them are so incredibly blurred. For some clarity lets ask Graham and Dodd, the fathers of value investing.

"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principle and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these require are speculative."

Wow, this is still quite blurred. One could very much argue that you still fall into the realms of investor. Well lets ask further. What is intrinsic value?

"The value which is justified by the facts, e,g, the assets, earnings, dividends and definite prospects, AS DISTINCT, let us say, from market quotations established by market manipulation or distorted by psychological excesses"

Well considering that, in your own words, you rely on TA first. You clearly do not meet the second when it comes to establishing intrinsic value. As you do rely on sentiment first and foremost.

In any event, track records over such short period means nothing. The only somewhat reliable short term test, is how you perform during a recession, when the tides recede. I would like to see your record then. Would you hold if the price of MASTEEL drops 80% over 3 days? Are you that confident of your assessment in its intrinsic value?

I know i am for my holdings.




Let me simplify it by giving you a rule of thumb that i use for myself when determining if its a speculation or investment, and if i would buy it.

If you were as rich as koon yew yin, or lets say, richer than him. And you have a few billion in the bank.

Would you privatize Masteel at the current price? Would you pay the 540 million AND take on the 314 million in debt? With its future profits being the only way you would get your money back? I doubt it.

You are only recommending it because it fits your profile for sentiment and short term prospective earnings, and you intend to earn your keep by selling it off to others once your target is met, and not through the prospective earnings of the company.

I'm sure that if you were rich enough to be able to privatize a company at current market prices, you would prefer say, Plenitute, that's a very easy one, don't even need to think. Or better yet, Puncak! The cash in the company is 3 times than your investment (i personally do not hold this), or even INSAS.

Maybe we are thinking in terms of good business, instead of NTA companies. Well in that case, might as well privatize Latitude, Liihen, Orient or maybe OKA at current prices.

One would is unlikely to go and consider buying up the entire Masteel or AYH with those debt levels. Masteel have 20m in cash and 340M in debt, talk about leverage.


Unless of course, you have research that is so deep and thorough that you know for a fact the long term future for MASTEEL is just that fantastic.

You are right, i did start a fund, and i am looking for investors. But i as i wrote in my letter. The type of investor is very important.

The people who follow you far from fit this criteria. They often only know the price of a stock, and whether it goes up or not. They need a weekly update on the TA of the stock, and industry, and when the price drop even a bit, you are suddenly inundated by emails and calls asking you why the price drop.

I did get some inquiries after my previous posts, but i turned them all down. I like to sleep well at night.

KCCHONGNZ's followers however, i think some might fit my criteria! Hahahaha!

Cheers.

You want them to play in big box downwards anot?

Posted by Pmaster > Jan 28, 2018 03:31 AM | Report Abuse

The price is more stable , hope trader will not jist play in small box.

The risk seems to be getting lesser.

Ill be waiting below 90 sen.

Haha, can i join? meatboneteafriend@gmail.com

VenfxPandora18 Pplane2016 would u like to join 瓜子兄's private group (whatsapp)
04/01/2018 15:44

paperplane,

Why johan? What do you see in it? Cant seem to wrap my head around why its a good buy.

Ekovest makes me sad man, wanted to buy the warrant since last year end, but keep delay for other shares.

This is true, my new year goal is to save less money ahaha.

cheoky mohnish pabrai said to be rich, compound interest rate & length of the runway. but if you are not born rich, and you are rich only when you are like 60years old. what is the use of money then? so need to combine both, find a middle path. sometime aggressiveness and margin might be a means to increase that compound interest rate. but if unlucky.... no black and white answer le
23/01/2018 22:37

I like their development alot, but if want to argue value, plenitude, daiman, uems offer better value quantitatively.

What are the qualitative things tropicana have going for it compared to say daiman or uems

With some luck, can buy some at the end of this month.

I dont see this company making more than 80m per year in terms of operating earnings, lets not talk about possible tax income etc.

On an EV/FCF or EV/EBT basis, the company is trading at 10 times assuming 80m per year in earnings. Its by no means cheap.

But since otb is behind it, should go somewhere if you want a punt.

That debt though. Hard to swallow.

This is starting to look attractive again.

If the automation ever gets off, considering how hard it is to set it up. Thats a nice edge,

You forget to take into account the superbankrupts. Haha

I don't need to be rich or a super investor tomorrow.

I know its just a matter of time for me to be rich, and an investor with a decent track record (super or not, that one let other people tell me).

I'm very conservative minded lah, not much of a gambler.

brightsmart nevertheless you write well

but your approach will not make you a super investor....

to be superinvestor, you need to sailang and margin and all in.
22/01/2018 19:22

Fair point. I guess production wont be the bottleneck in this case.

Log prices went up due to low supply last year.

Worth a punt i guess, this kind of stock, need to think like Venture Capitalist or private equity, not value investor.

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 22, 2018 07:12 PM | Report Abuse

They are getting a gigantic forest concession mah

Sigh, why do I even bother to answer ?

Wouldn't FLBHD be a better idea? They raised their plywood production from 66mt to 77mt in 2016, should have raised further in 2017.

Depressed price, low ROIC and EV/FCF etc etc.

I don't tell people what i buy or sell. =)

If its good, no need to promote.

True.

And it's very hard to know if you're performing or non-performing because of luck (or lack of it), or skill (or lack of it).

Value88, true. It's one of the factors, but I consider it the main one.

For asean countries, if I have to venture a guess, it's because their countries are far less developed and so double digit growth on companies is more common.

Also their stock markets are alot newer than ours. When the Malaysian stock market first started, people were truly gambling in the market and frying everything up to the sky. MUIIND was worth more than RM20. While it's only 20 sen now.

Cambodia's stock market got less than 20 companies. I imagine Vietnam's is not that much bigger.

Yes. As in, I purchase my holdings only when it perfectly comfortable holding it at least 3 years. And I try to stick to this rule.

But if something goes up past my margin of safety, or change in fundamental occur. I may sell.

Feel free to search and add me on facebook.

Sentiment. Oil prices go up, SUMATEC is an oil driller. People start to buy, then people see other people buy, they also go and buy. Then everyone see everyone buy, we get greedy, go and chase it high.

Then the people who hold the share originally sell at first, but suddenly, they see it keep going up, they greedy, dont want to sell any more. Or even go buy back more at a higher price!

The only question is if the gains that be kept. Which now comes down to fundamentals.


OrlandoOIL Tat weird merlin guy didn't answered my question on hw sumatac wil solve its debt problems thn next thing d price flew by 50% knn

If no got operators hw sumatac flew like tat ? Can explain?
21/01/2018 08:18

The vast majority of them make money, or help them hedge for their own holdings.

spermwhale You think the ibs issue so many call and puts just to lose money?
21/01/2018 07:35

@More2It Why would they trade differently? And how differently would they trade? At the end of the day, they want returns.

I do concede that they may try to trade the trend etc, but not as this so called operator.


@BLee Yeap. However, i doubt they will be so foolish as to issue warrants with the assumption that they can control prices. Hengyuan now is worth RM4.4bil. And its not the only warrant in town. Unless the IB is Berkshire Hathaway and for some reason want to donate alot of money to public.

Its not possible.

@Fabien

You are probably right. I have not audited banks before. So my understanding is mostly from some brief reading.

Thanks for the comments!

@purebull

How to you know the right timing? In a bull market, any timing is the right timing, and in a bear market, any timing is the wrong timing.

Stocks become cornered (also know as liquidity crunch) where either, no one wants to sell, and the price shoots up like mad.

Or when no one wants to buy, and the price free fall for you to see.

Haha, feel free to explain your education theory a bit more.

Cash rich cause just IPO lah. The money not for buyback or div one. Siao meh.

I don't really bother trying to predict earnings. I focus on understanding the business and the moat.

If i need a fantastic quarter for my investment thesis to work out, i think im fucking up. Because it is not my edge or forte.

The funny thing about predicting earnings, is that a lot can go wrong. And what can go wrong, often the predictor does not even know.

However, because they believe in their prediction, they take a less than adequate margin of safety. Which means when they die, they really die.

All i know is that Hengyuan is now still cheap. But i always keep in mind that record earnings have a way to make things look cheap. And that the crack spread will compress. And that a significant proportion of earnings this year is due to inventory gain, forex gain as well as extenuating circumstances that result in record high spreads.

Which is why its only 3% of portfolio, while PetronM is 9%. Petronm is 9% because it can 100% sell its own product. Hengyuan must rely on china.

So question now is. What is the real operating earnings and how resilient is it. This is really really hard to answer, unless you have worked in refineries for decades and know the conditions worldwide.

When HY goes to 20, i think i'm out. I wont be sure if the woman is fat or not then.

pjseow, i try not to think too deeply. I use this method. I dont need to know the weight of a woman to know if she is fat, nor the age of a man to know if he is old.

If i need to know it with precision, its probably not that good of an investment if expected value is taken into account. They are many other investments that are easy to understand and still undervalued.



More2It, you would be surprised. How did bitcoin go up to USD20k at one point? One small group of people can push up a price, if no one wants to sell at all. As prices go higher, people get greedier, and want to keep the stock even more. This lack of supply ensures panic buying and price shoots up.

And as we can see the last few days, when one person wants to sell, everyone wants to sell. So we get panic selling and the price drops like no tomorrow. And as humans, we think it will really go to no tomorrow and sell.

I dont deny foreign funds are in, but that is never the big difference. Im writing 2 more post on the operators and why KLSE under perform other indices.

Ricky Yeo is one of the few people in the forum who i will read when he writes. His depth in thinking and research is truly very very hard to find in the KLSE.

I do not agree with some of his picks, but i will listen and ask clarifying questions.

Icon8818 Wasted 10 minutes reading rubbish! Jon choivo = Ricky yo brother?
20/01/2018 20:13