In investing, there are 3 important things.

1) The ability to determine intrinsic value.
2) The ability to hold or buy more as the price goes down.
3) The ability to be right.

Good luck. I think you fucked up. But i might be wrong.


Posted by bunnypro > Jan 18, 2018 07:37 PM | Report Abuse

sifu-sifu, paktua and dream and dragon, im in paper lost 70k in just 2days after chase high on this sumatec, pls advice me on it... wechat bunbun8819, thx

How does this even make sense. KYY or IB is selling because they want to buy more? huh

Anyway, i sold my 6% stake at 17, rebuy 3% at 14.3

stockraider

HENGYUAN IS GOING TO REPORT A STRONG EPS OF RM 3.60 IN Q4....BUT MANY SELLER LIKE KYY AND INVESTMENT BANKERS ARE SELLING DOWN , HOPING TO BUY BACK AT LOWER PRICE LOH....!!

18/01/2018 18:40

Well, i sold a long time ago at 5.1, then sit there watch it fly above RM7.

Might be worth buying again. But i need to study more.

If pakatan dont want the toll, must pay penalty etc etc.

Still a good thing.

pakatan_harapan2 Pakatan say toll free. Ubah if you like toll free.
17/01/2018 12:47

Why do people smoke cigarettes when they know that it causes cancer?

People smoke cigarettes because nicotine is remarkably physically and psychologically addictive.

I started smoking cigarettes when I was 17 years old and a young Marine. I did it because… I don't honestly know. Just because everyone else did, I guess.

I didn't even like smoking. It made me cough. It made me dizzy. Sometimes it made me feel nauseated.

But I kept right on doing it because … I don't honestly know why.

Then came the day that I said, “Fuck this, no more Marlboro Reds for me. This is stupid!”

Guess what?

I couldn't quit.

My body rebelled. Every moment of every hour of every day that passed I was consumed with an overwhelming, fierce desire to light a cigarette and fill my lungs with that glorious, glorious smoke.

I itched. I burned. I had to have it.

And then I'd smoke. And then the first few drags would feel great. And then I'd realize that I didn't even like smoking. It was gross. I hated it.

And I could not quit.

I tried over and over. I'd get the shakes. I'd get nervous and angry and tense and fidgety. I’d want a cigarette more than I wanted anything.

And I'd smoke.

I finally quit when I left the military. It helped that my husband detested smoking and pushed me not to do it.

I stopped for ten years. Ten full years. Ten full years of always wanting to smoke. Every single day of my life.

Then he died.

I started smoking again. Smoked for five more years. Same stupid cycle. I hated it, but I couldn't quit.

Finally I did. I haven't picked up a cigarette in over 15 years.

As I type this, however, I'm experiencing a powerful urge to smoke, just thinking about it. That's how addictive nicotine is.

Oh, and also as I type, my father, who will die soon of advanced COPD caused by cigarettes, is sitting across the room from me.

He's smoking.

Because he can't quit.

People smoke because they can't quit.


This is why i want to buy BAT, but again, illegal cigarettes. Like drug addicts, people who smoke want the cheapest one that can help them scratch that itch. They dont really care so much about the flavor etc.

Bought a very small 3% position

Hmm,

Is it quantitatively cheap, assuming no growth? Well, its ok.

But if you price in the growth (even in absolute USD terms), and management, its pretty cheap.

Currently, RM is gaining against the USD, but i think this is temporary, like the rally of the USD against the RM last year.

The US economy is still moving fantastically, and trump tax cut on repatriation of profit (15.5% from 35%), will result in almost 1 trillion repatriated, apple alone is 252bil.

That is alot of demand for the USD. Which should push it up. In addition, there is also the interest rates in the US being raised.

Like everyone says, its a bit of a no brainer. I topped up at 3.41 before the run up to 3.6, before falling back to 3.38. I may buy a bit more soon.

The difficulty is in ensuring you do not extrapolate the current into the future permanently. Which is not easy.

Id like to buy in, but illegal ciggs really is too hard to compete. Even my friends with salary more than 7k per month, also buy illegal.

So easy, RM5 per pack if you get direct from source. He just go buy 20 packs one shot.

Nowadays, even when i come from overseas, ask who want one carton, nobody want, cause illegal is even cheaper than duty free from airport.

The only way to stop it, is to punish both the buyers and sellers, then maybe got chance.

Remember people, buy little bit, this is not the only NTA play in the Bursa

Also, guys, please note that the current dividend payouts is not sustainable. The company has gone into debt to sustain dividend payouts,.

I never said Nestle is cheap.

Stop putting words in my mouth.

Posted by limch > Jan 12, 2018 02:40 PM | Report Abuse

You haven't answered why Nestle PE 40 never mind?

They only do that, because they are forced to do so. Every good thing they do, is only because it was forced upon them.

Having said that, they are also in the double whammy of stupid laws increasing cigarette duties. Which really only increase the spread of illegal ones.

I would not pay more than 10 P/E for this company.

Posted by pclim > Jan 12, 2018 02:30 PM | Report Abuse

They do encourage moderate and responsible smoking lah..definitely not killing smokers
A lot of high positioned corporate people also smoke 4 to 5 cigarettes a day. Effective to relieve work stress. Anything below 35 is a good buy

I never said Nestle was cheap :)

In any event, nestle do deserve a higher valuation. As it is doing business the true, fair and ethical way. Or at least more than BAT.

For BAT to succeed, will give more people lung cancer. It relies on the addiction of their current customers on the thing that kills them in order to make money.

Society dont want BAT to make money, lawmakers dont like BAT, even the smokers dont like BAT, but because they cannot tahan.

You don't see lawmakers rushing to put 100% tariff/tax on nestle products, because it is in general good for you.




Posted by limch > Jan 12, 2018 12:15 PM | Report Abuse

If BAT too richly valued how abt Nestle at RM 100 why cheap at PE 40?

It was too richly valued for a long time anyway, due to high div payouts.

Im waiting at 20. May never reach, but if it reach there, i think time for me to go in.


IBestDividend This giant company over 100 years in Malaysia. Share price drop back to year of 2000.
Very very bad :-(
11/01/2018 21:25

So so so sad.

REALLY wanted to buy some for my portfolio a few months back, but i figured others was better T_T.

I still think i was right, cant make money from every single stock in the market i suppose.

Drop to 25, then got hope d =D

Looks like nothing special tbh, anything i missed out?

What so good about this company, anything to read?

From a value standpoint, its a no brainer.

Now, i can think of things i would do if i was in loh kian chong shoes that is good for the company and the shareholders, long or short term wise.

Id talk to aberdeen about buying their entire holdings are prevailing market price through open market.

Then i would sell or develop the land, not all at once, but at an increasing but sustainable pace.

Then the palm oil, i will talk to united plantations, the best plantation company in the world, for some kind of JV, letting them manage their plantation, with the financial backing of oriental.

Having said that, kian chong is competent and conservative. Depending on who you are, his conservative-ness may be a pro or a con. Im fine with it. I know my money safe, down sides very little, upsides, well if he aggressive abit, upside sure alot d. I can wait.

I think they just buay tahan d.They buy in 2014 and 2015. Price no move for 4 years ahaha.

I can wait. Its only 6% of my portfolio anyway.

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Jan 9, 2018 08:17 PM | Report Abuse

Aberdeen keep selling. Do they know something we don't?

I have actually, may buy a little to keep it as part of the NTA plays.

Fabien Extraordinaire Jon, have a look at TA. EV/EBIT of 4. Substantial discount to NTA, P/BV less than 0.5x.
09/01/2018 20:21

Ok, the company did not do any segmental reporting, so its quite hard to estimate the figures, but lets try.

What is the marginal increase in profit, if depreciation charges stay the same (could be conservative, could be not, since there is economies of scale for the others)?

Lets assume that the all the profit is from logging. Adding back depreciation charges profit for the quarter is RM7 million, or RM28mil per year.

RM28mil/18*50= RM77 million profit if 50,000 cubic meter. Less the current depreciation cost of RM24mil per year. Assuming they can really do 50,000 cubic metre, expected profit is RM53 million. or a nice PE of 6 or EV/EBIT of 9 at current market MV.

Now, this could be higher due to the additional contribution of plywood production, and it can also be much lower due to cost of getting everything set up etc, and the problems that come with scaling up.

Conclusion: Assuming everything mostly goes right, you get a company at valuations of P/E of 6 and EV/EBIT of 9.

Why not FAVCO then? Its EV/EBIT of 3, and you get the oil boom. Why not Liihen? EV/EBIT of 5 and it has the hurricanes in the USA driving up demand, as well as the economy boom. Why not ORIENT? EV/EBIT of 4, record honda car sales, plantation division just turned to profit in 2017, and at roughly 65% discount to RNAV (and real valuable book value mind you, land held in penang at 1974 prices), Hengyuan and Petronm etc etc

Well, there is also the goreng factor. if profit shoots from RM1m to RM53m, despite most of the positive fundamentals already priced in, you can bet that people are not going to see that, but would buy, betting that someone will be willing to pay more.

This definitely looks like a nice goreng purchase, but on pure fundamentals, not that interesting.

Interesting.

I really want one, but the company is just not expanding at all. So its very similar to FD valuations wise

I like it, but valuations wise, may be cheaper than most plantation companies, but not that much cheaper than other things in the market. But i think ill buy some.

Our of curiosity, why is margin compressing so much over the years?

This company is actually amazing, too bad its not that cheap nta wise, but other than that, wow.

EV/EBIT wise, this is one of the cheapest plantations in malaysia

Definitely, looking at EKOVEST with sadness. Really wanted to buy at 90, but bolui. Than at thursday, wanted to buy the warrants at 585, but i am the conservative type one, hate paying more. Now. Haih

godhand if i may correct u. the whole bursa is bullish.
07/01/2018 01:14


It definitely is. Its not so precise that its like physics, nor is it so abstract, that its like a painting.

But the movement in price does not mean that i am wrong. Enron and Valeant reach incredibly high prices as well.

If i'm wrong, it must come from either something i overlooked or miscalculated fundamentally.

My figures on the impairment is definitely not precise and may even be wrong =) And MBSB may very well be worth RM1.35 or whatever the bulls want to put on it.

Invest_168 "why Coldeye is wrong on MBSB"???? With recent surge of MBSB share price, then we know investment is an ART. You no need to know too deep in those banking theory behind.
07/01/2018 00:53

Every time share market goes up, i always a bit depressed one, cause everything expensive d.

No idea why it drop. Short term price movements can mean anything or nothing.

Long term wise, the reason why the price no move is due to earnings being uneven, and most of the cash earnings is distributed (which is a good thing) with low leverage. Management is competent and conservative.

I think the bosses see this co as a FD haha.

The ability to make money is not important, because anyone can do that.

Its the ability to make money or not lose money in a bear market that is important, because very few can do that.


Posted by Jonathan Keung > Jan 8, 2018 03:02 PM | Report Abuse

robert kuok says dissecting charts same as dissecting corpse . Chartist ??? not applicable in a bull run

"There were no gains on land sale in 2012-2015, so that means these agencies, did not pay much more than book value for them."

Edit, there was in 2014, but all the lands were revalued up to Jan 2017, so not sure where the gains are going to come from.

The lands were revalued on Janaury 2017. Not sure how much higher can it can go.

Also, do note Johor can really screw them by compulsory acquisitions

"Due to compulsory acquisitions by the Johor State Government and Petroliam National Berhad in 2012 to 2015, the Pengerang land has been reduced from 4,644.09 acres to its current acreage of 1,702.52"

There were no gains on land sale in 2012-2015, so that means these agencies, did not pay much more than book value for them.

It is one of the factors, but the way he put it is way too simplistic.



Posted by risktransformer > Jan 8, 2018 01:23 PM | Report Abuse

The TP has nothing to do with the NTA.

Waseh, icon8888 must be having a very good new year hahaha

I definitely can see what you mean, however, this is also how people die when the bull run ends. The bull run is definitely coming to its peak d, since everyone is so optimistic now. When i say coming to its peak, it may last another 3 months or 2 years.

Lets not forget, interest rates around the world is rising, which should slow the bubble (but it isnt).

But my god, definitely abit sad, on wednesday last week, i wanted to throw into the warrants, but didnt.

chinchiahor Look at those O&G stocks, no amount of FA can convincingly tell you its a good value buy…..juz ride the momentum…. momentum play is the name of the game in a bull market. Wht more the big picture of Eko is very positive
08/01/2018 12:39

:(

Missed the train. I really wanted to buy in at 0.9 but no more cash, now, as price go up, getting harder and harder to buy in, unless i do an in depth analysis and clearly define the range of value for Eko.

But definitely, FV is roughly 1.5 (at this valuation, it would be the same as Gamuda, the most similar co). So still got 30% margin of safety when compared to a "not cheap" prop dev, construction and highway concession co.

Do quote what you said of me from my old post, i've never deleted anything from my history.

Orange88 Boys and girls listen

Did the author, in May 2017 also said that Hengyuan is was overvalued at RM 5 saying buying Hengyuan is even more risky that Bitcoin...



Historical price is not indicative of intrinsic value, see Sapura Kencana, it sed to be worth RM4, then RM2, now RM0.8

james86 mbsb can go higher to 3.2 since 2013
05/01/2018 11:54



Just because get license does not mean your profit go up immediately, remember what i said about banks finding it hard to increase profit a lot due to difficulty in obtaining deposits and managing cash flow.

Also, almost every bank have that license, and even better BIMB got the word "Islam" in their name. Why not that then?

latlut u have to consider the potential after getting the Islamic banking license mah.
05/01/2018 12:36

Why does felicity say tropicana is hugely undervalued? NTA wise, at 50% its not that much compared to others, and the properties/land are held in the books at 2010 etc value, not that undervalued.

Naturally. I was talking in terms of my 2018 Stock pick Competition heh.

PotentialGhost How good ? can survival 10 year then can call good , not 1 year 20% call good。
04/01/2018 13:48

Alot of their earnings is in USD too btw.

What goes down, can come up.

Posted by dompeilee > Jan 4, 2018 07:30 PM | Report Abuse

Roughly 65% of their 17b debt is US$ denominated. US dollar has fallen almost 10% since one yr ago.

The year have a long way to go. This is just first week of the year stock market exuberance.

Mgician @Jon Choivo.. good 1
04/01/2018 10:52

Quick question.

Im guessing all the land from the plantation will be sold right?

I like your thinking, where can i find your research on this company, or do you know where to find it?

chongyo LearnFromMistake, How do you arrive at fair price of $1.25 ? Pls share your calculation.

None of the self proclaimed "experts" can actually get it right all the time. Don't waste time to fish the bottom because the bottom is not known to anybody.

Stock market pricing is so dynamic and depend on whole lots of factors, both domestic and international and sometime beyond fundamental. You will agree if you are long enough in the market.

Just buy when you feel it is right.

When people sold down WCE to below $0.90, I continued picking up considerable volume between %0.84 to $0.90. At that point of time, some "expert" predicted that it would go down to $0.70 as the future of the company was in doubt. Should I have listened to the "expert's" advise to wait for $0.70, I would hate myself. Fortunately, I trusted myself.

The company is in much more solid footing now. There is continuous flow of earning from Rimbayu and expressway construction while waiting for the toll revenue to kick in 1 to 1.5 years from now.

I learnt from mistake NOT TRYING TO MAKE THE LAST DOLLAR from the market. Have you Learn From Mistake ?

No hard feeling. May be there is really something you know that I don't.
09/08/2017 19:57

Question is, how likely and resilient i the future profit, and how much of it is priced in already.

Posted by Kesley Tan > Jan 3, 2018 05:44 PM | Report Abuse

u don't value a growth stock purely by PE. If you want you need to based on forward PE.

Hng33, can you please point me to where i can find the info you wrote below.


Posted by hng33 > Jan 3, 2018 09:05 PM | Report Abuse

Compare to UMWOG, Sapura not only involve in upstream drilling, s but also by itself is largest independent oil and gas producer. Sapura maiden gas harvest alrdy commence since Oct 2017 and more gas field has developing in 2018 to further increase Sapura gas production ensuring steady long term earning visibility

"Ill give you no numbers. I'll give you no prices. I am not going to tell you which ones are going to succeed or fail. I think they are all pretty good companies, and if you bought a package of these stocks over the next four years, you would do very well. I hear this stuff all the time, how its a bubble, its ridiculous. If you just use the numbers to do this stuff, number one, you won't buy them, which is a good thing for some people, but you will never understand the amount of change that's going on and how much is still ahead of us"

Arthur J Samberg, Head of Pequot Capital Management and top technology investor early 2008. Every single one of his recommendations went bankrupt or suffered losses in excess of 96%.

Price and valuation matters alot.

Look at PERSTIMAS. RM8 to RM4 in 6 months, and this a good company with good div, just happen to be selling at a slightly rich valuation. of 20P/E, when earning crunch happen.

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > Jan 3, 2018 05:17 PM | Report Abuse

if you buy stock base on PE,then you need improve your knowledge. Aemulus is a gem among all tech stock, potential to grown in fy18&fy19 ,dealing with future technology which no other company can involve in. 5G and IOT plush wireless charging technology, wonderful combination .

Any chance you want to partner up?

Despite some difference in our styles, i always respected your views and research. I loved your stuff on Airasia, Lionind and Hengyuan.

jonathanchoiyikit@gmail.com