Thecontrarian.

How diversified are you? I always see you in the forums i like.

Like OSK, how do you collect for 2 years, so many things to collect.

Whats your biggest position and how big is it.

Nice write up. Btw, how do you link a blogpost to a stock? Or label.

Unlikely to gap down, negatives mostly priced in. They did say VSS was going to be RM50m but wasnt expecting headcount to also grow? Wtf?Position is still very small, keep only lah.

Losses brought forward. Deferred tax not used etc.


Posted by fruni > Nov 30, 2017 05:43 PM | Report Abuse

How come Hengyuan don't pay any taxes? This is since 2015

Congratulations.

Good luck to everyone, end of the day, i hope you all make money.

Its not a matter of business but the price you pay.

Overpay for a good business, and it will turn into a bad investment.

Question now is this, is utilities prices in general depressed, or should malakoff valuation be even lower.

Posted by kelvinfixx > Nov 30, 2017 10:55 AM | Report Abuse

Jon, I didn't say malakoff is fantastic, I just disagree you said it has no value, your statement is wrong, because I have been getting dividend since year one and their earning is okay. I am certain the price movement is weird.

Valuation wise, its just as expensive as Tenaga at 12x EV/EBIT.

Is malakoff so fantastic valuation should be same as tenaga ah.

Posted by kelvinfixx > Nov 29, 2017 04:39 PM | Report Abuse

I disagree it has no value. The earning is okay. It has dividend every quarter. I think some one is creating volatile, so malakof has to buy back share, because under value.

More than 2x book value and at 24 p/e.

Every plantation company in malaysia is cheaper other than united plantation.

ProfJPMorgan this share definitely under value, will go above RM7 very soon
30/11/2017 09:30

At this price, macam tiada harapan, so i think can buy abit, since masa hadapan sure got one.

Valuations for magnum have started to look attractive, but that 471mil hit is not yet provided at all. So a little worrying.

I've been looking at it a long time. But the price is just not at the level where its really attractive. I like the business a lot though.

Needs to drop more.

Not people pushing down, its called lack of value. 60 sen come!

Aiyo, TMCLIFE is multi-generational investment. Why look everyday. You go heaven d still want check i3 meh.

If MRCB did not get HSR, would your call be wrong then?

Your calls require god to help only will right one ah?

They buy, because you shout and because the price go up.

Where got need iron balls, Got OTB and gang to push, got raider and gang to push, and most importantly got KYY and gang to push. KYY also say he buy until no more money d.

ASB scare what.

Last time you say KYY is scammer, now he is what? Buddha?

Long term your head. I guarantee you this. Next year Nov, you sure wont be shouting in hengyuan forum d. Sure choose another to shout as if that stock now best stock in the world.

Posted by stockraider > Nov 29, 2017 11:18 AM | Report Abuse

Not true loh....!!
Most investors of hengyuan are quality mid & long term players mah...!!
Why leh ??

1. Hengyuan is a quality high price stock above Rm 10.00 punters and short term players are reluctant to touch.
2. People already know ASB is disposing, only those dare devils with iron brave balls dare to buy loh...!!
3. Punters have alternative to buy into many choices of call warrant mah....!!

Conclusion
Hengyuan up bcos of very good quality earnings coming loh....!!

See what i said about shouting. I bought when you starting asking to buy at RM5.6. It was definitely cheap then.

I wonder what would happen if you stayed at evergreen. You remember how loud you shout anot? Everyday telling the whole world how fantastic evergreen is, like the company got zero downside like that. Now, down 24% d. 3 bad quarters in a row, when you said the last 2 will 100% be green.

Were you right or wrong about the call?

Imagine this, if not for hengyuan, your picks for 2017 will be down 25%, probably more since you use margin.

stockraider U DON BOTHER U COME HERE FOR WHAT ??

I THINK U R JEALOUS LOH...!!

I also don't think i very smart. But i think how i cope with being not being very smart is my advantage.

I don't bother with HRC anymore, i still have some. Its not cheap enough for me to buy more, nor is it so overvalued i have to sell.

If go up, i make some money, if it go down low enough, i can buy more then.

Whole bursa got alot of other good things to buy at cheap price.

Good luck everyone.

How is the Modiplam machinery unique or much more useful compared to the competitors.

Who are their competitors.

What can the Modipalm machine do that others cannot do.

Every time i read raider post.

"Where there is shouting, there is no true knowledge." — Leonardo da Vinci

He's a former car and real estate salesman. Face very very thick one, can handle rejection day in day out. Hahaha

Have to respect his persistence, not so much his goreng-ing.

I know at 60-70 sen is a definite buy lah. Rm1, not sure.

Why are you investing based on tips, are you a waiter?

Give a man 1 million dollars and have him invest based on insider tips and he will leave a bankrupt.

I dont want anybody to buy my stocks because i say so, but only because they themselves got research properly and like it at that valuations themselves.

My comments there should give you a fairly decent path at doing your own valuation.

Look at RCECAP and do your own research. That's all ill say.

Posted by MayBee > Nov 28, 2017 04:13 PM | Report Abuse

Mr Jon, really hope you could share more good counters with us here.

We are mostly cash rich investors here to wait for next Petronm to emerge.

For the last few years, the car sector is not in the trough, but actually increasing, only recently start to taper.

Even when the sector is booming, tanchong can still die. This is not related to the industry but the company.

Just cause you lost money in this counter, does not mean you need to make it back here.

This company is being choked alive, due to mismanagement clearly.


Posted by nikicheong > Nov 28, 2017 08:46 PM | Report Abuse

Not BV per say, but the trough situation. We are at the bottom of the cycle. Improving Ringgit, improving GDP in Malaysia and Indochina, new models in the pipeline...from bottom to top, companies easily move 4-6x. Now the question is, are we at (or near) the bottom? That is the key.

Btw I like the Q3 report. Regardless there will be a selldown tomorrow and I will be there to pick up the pieces. Some of them at least.

Tunepro is one of the 2 insurers in Malaysia that actually make money on their premiums. Most insurance companies make a loss on premium, but make it back on the investment gain.

However, it is also one of the most expensive insurance outfit in malaysia at almost 2X book value, so many are not even 1x book value.

is the asset (insurance base) of Tunepro worth the premium. No idea, probably, but at 2x, might be abit high.

Fairly ok with the results. Nothing special.

Anyway, good luck with petronm everyone. Go up also not bad, i still got some shares, can make some money.

If drop also never mind, drop low enough, i can buy more.

Ikan bilis only here.

I'm not so keen on sharing my picks, because well, there is very little benefit, and if they don't perform in price, suddenly everything is my fault, despite me stating very very clearly that i can only estimate intrinsic value.

And i dont think its ethical to have a bunch of followers, and buy before my followers. Look at gadang and ays ( i dont have any), if you know the fundamental price fully, never mind, can top up. But if you follow others buy, when drop you really heart attack, cause all you see and know is the price, not the value.

Where the price go, i really don't know. I only know if it drops with no change in fundamentals, i will buy a bit more, if it goes up with no change in fundamentals, i will sell some or stop buying.

If i share my research, is only because i am truly not sure of my own research and need some comments. Ie, the stock is very clearly not cheap, i am clearly paying for potential, and potential is the easiest thing to overpay.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/133077.jsp

Timecom is the only company where i'm willing to pay for the potential and at close to fairvalue. It also happens to be the biggest position at 30%.

Due to how close it is to fair value, i'm willing to share, because i also not that sure if i'm overpaying for the potential.

Posted by UncleMau > Nov 28, 2017 03:59 PM | Report Abuse

Jon Choivo, pls share your experience and insight in this forum with us. Appreciate it.

I still holding =D

My target top up price reaching soon. RM1.4- RM1.45 come come.

You think msia only got petronm ah? No shell, petronas, caltex, bhp etc?

The other day i pumped at petron, and the seller automatic give me a membership card, i remember thinking "wow, that's interesting, other place never give automatically one or even ask, better keep the share."

Ask me to buy. Waseh, i have at least 2 companies that i think are trading at less than 30% of fair value, one of the management is fantastic.

3-4 at 50% of intrinsic value, 2 of the have very very good management.

3-4 that are fantastic net asset plays, with stocks only at 10-20% of RNAV fair value. Management is pretty ok also.

1 company that incredibly undervalued, great management, big room to grow. About 50% of intrinsic value. And this intrinsic value does not even take into account future growth and potential. Just the current value of earnings and asset.

And 1 company that is at fair value or slightly above, but the sheer moat i think is worth paying for.

You tell me, why i should buy more petronm instead of these others.

Posted by thenewbee > Nov 28, 2017 03:42 PM | Report Abuse

If u don’t know what’s the intrinsic value of petronm, how do u know the margin of safety? Come on la. A company which suffered huge debt previously is now having o debt with incredible amount of cash flow. The qr has factored in the debt they need to clear as well. Was thinking that they might have to propose right issue to clear the debt, but prove me wrong. Petronm is another kesm with an awesome management team

I had KESM at RM7.8, held to 14, then i sold most of it.

Things that are overpriced can go even higher, and things that are under priced can go even lower.

I don't dare to say i can predict where the price can go. I can only make a rough estimate of what i consider the intrinsic value of the company to be.

But KESM now, is definitely overvalued in my opinion. Yes cars going more electronic, will increase demand, therefore increasing price and therefore increase profit.

But an increase in price and profit will result in more competitors and capacity expansion, which will increase supply, and therefore lower price and profit.

Not much moat there. Unless the management is so fantastic can constantly develop new and better product and stay ahead. They may well be able to, but that's a very small margin of safety.

Of course if you know something about the management and the market, and therefore you think its worth the valuation go on ahead and buy.

I don't know anything that will tell me its cheap, or that it has a moat worth paying for.

Posted by thenewbee > Nov 28, 2017 03:39 PM | Report Abuse

Kesm was at 4 den it move up to 8.12,16,20. So at 12 do you feel expensive or cheap ? If that’s the way u value a company . U better stay away from the market, u wouldn’t be able big in the market. Invest in mutual bond, fd, properties

Its not so much the value of this company. But the value of this opportunity compared to other companies in the bursa.

I don't doubt that this company will turn into a proper blue chip in the coming years and continue to grow well. That's why i still hold.

But so many other things to buy now. My FV for petronm is about 15-16 or so when i calculated it last time. At RM12, margin of safety not as big anymore, opportunity not that attractive anymore.


Posted by thenewbee > Nov 28, 2017 03:35 PM | Report Abuse

Tell me how u value this company ? Jon choivo, tell me what is not cheap nor expensive ? How do you understand the prospect of petronm and their future development?

Every stock also got potential. What is a share price other than future earning potential paid today.

Petronm have not arrived at my calculation of intrinsic value, but the margin of safety is too low for me to buy, nor is it so overvalued i have to sell. Since it does have a lot of stuff going for it, and i like how they do business and how the management run the company.

But ask me to buy more ah... so many cheaper ones in bursa and some of those also equally good.

Haha buy and prepare to hold 10 years. Must wait for them to die. Buy little bit can d.

Well, its no longer that cheap anymore. Not expensive, but not that cheap either.

For every "WHOOP WHOOP HOORAY" or "YIPEEEE" or every capslock in his post.

Be more conservative, look deeper and diversify when you buy his stuff. Rmbr, his sifu is Walter Schloss. Walter Schloss got hundreds of stock.

Maximum, all his picks should total up to be 10-20% max of your portfolio.

The companies, despite being undervalued, is rubbish. But the sheer cheapness of it makes it worth buying.

But Bursa, got alot of good company that are undervalued or even fantastic companies that are very nicely valued, with room to grow if you're looking for very long term.

You don't need to hold so much of calvin picks.

One thing to not forget is this.

Calvin is very good at finding undervalued stock. But like raider, when he talk, he talk as if you should sell house, sell car, sell wife, get loan and sailang all into his stocks.

He also like to goreng one.

but the reality is, he himself only put a very small amount of his networth in stocks, and they are all very very diversified into all his picks, and he is far more patient than most i3 investors. But people mistake him as a short term player.

So when he say buy bjcorp, dont go throw you mum in there. Its good, but no need sailang. Put 1-2%. Prepare to buy another 1% when it drop.

Calvin picks is about 10-20% of my portfolio. Though most of them are the really good picks like daiman or plenitude. Put little bit in talamt, muiind, puncak etc

Not sure about opcom, but duta is also a decent pick if you look at 10 years.

This starts to look attractive.

Hmm interesting.

However, why not NHFATT then if we want automotive stocks, similar companies. though NHFATT is more focused on making replacement exterior parts. Or Favco etc etc.

The thing about APM for me that i worry about i that, i have no idea what their competitive moat is. Is this drop in profit due to a temporary change in vehicle demand, or a more permanent condition due to inability to compete. Their main shareholder Tanchong is really fucking up over the last couple years when vehicle sales is actually rather stable.

Stuck mai stuck loh. I look as my purchases as Sdn Bhd companies.

Still have not bought, too many companies starting to look cheap these few weeks. Need to study more. But flbhd is cheap man, put like 2-3% of portfolio also ok.

Dont forget the fire.

I personally can't give a damn. But i'll just buy more if i drops then.

Want to bet? I'll give you 3:1 odds. I bet it wont limit up.

Posted by Ghostliker > Nov 23, 2017 08:47 PM | Report Abuse

Tomorrow limit up

If its just 100k shares or so that he sells, what is 100k shares. Less than 150k. He can only buy a honday civic with it.

I dont really care when a director sells these small amounts. Too many reason to sell.

But when he buys there is only one reason =)

Clone here saying hello.

My gosh, i guess the saying is true. People do get weird when they get old, especially if they spend most of their time on I3.

R40, relax. Let it drop lah. So what. I owned since 1.3.

If it drop below RM0.9 can start to buy more d.

The thing not good about this management is, always ESOS, always right issue, always warrant issue.

Niama, need money take loan lah, no need issue shares one.

That was a good result. In absolute USD, its up, what is a 5% drop in USD =)

Will buy more.

Fairly ok.

Out of curiosity, what is so good about the lands?