Latitude PE 6.2x only mah....!!
Don use rubbish EV/EBIT...like do business don need to pay interest & tax meh....!!

Just use PE already good mah...!!

Posted by Jon Choivo > Nov 13, 2017 09:32 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by Halite > Nov 13, 2017 09:27 PM | Report Abuse

nothing is cheap is you dare not buy

Latitude is trading at 3 times EV/EBIT. That means you buy the company now, in 3 years, the company earn enough to pay you back.

I bought 15% of portfolio =)

Spoken like a true quarter punter.

If you used P/E only, you would have bought GM back in the day. Market value of the company only USD 2 bil. But debt was 115 billion. Bankrupted and need US govt save.

Posted by stockraider > Nov 13, 2017 09:31 PM | Report Abuse

Again u talk so many cock ??

Tell me what is the PE of Evergreen and ekovest leh ??

Hengyuan even based on q3 eps Rm 0.60....annualzed eps rm 2.60...even at share price of Rm 15.00 is only PE 6x loh...!!

But one thing eps rm 2.60...Hengyuan cannot be the most profitable co in klse can only be 2nd most profitable mah...!!

The Most profitable will be nestle eps Rm 2.70...PE 33x share price Rm 88.00 loh...!!

Except the earnings is not consistent. They can earn 100 mill today, lose 200 mill tmr. How do you think it drop from RM8 to RM2? Magic ah?

The income is not recurring, they have no moat, they have no branding.

Yes, i know now they are no longer forced to sell to shell, but can sell to china. But the real result remains to be seen.

Posted by Halite > Nov 13, 2017 09:27 PM | Report Abuse

nothing is cheap is you dare not buy

Latitude is trading at 3 times EV/EBIT. That means you buy the company now, in 3 years, the company earn enough to pay you back.

I bought 15% of portfolio =)

Posted by kimhaolian > Nov 13, 2017 09:27 PM | Report Abuse

I think in investing, beside all the FA, another important thing is to read the trend, the ability to see the future growth...this is something we cannot know from reading all the annual report.

Yes, but find me one person who can do this consistently for decades. Not one person on the top 10 richest investors now do technical or trend.

People talk like jesse livemore is god, but they seem to forget he went bankrupt so many times.

The only exception maybe, is soros. But that guy is an absolute monster at balancing thinking, controlling emotion and taking decisive action quickly.

And lets not forget, its really only one trade that made him the money. the rest was a slow growth in investing in good companies, coupled with some forex and options trading.

Unless you're name is soros, dont focus so much on trend. I also cannot help looking at chart before i buy, but the thing about technical analysis is that it only makes sense in retrospect.

Posted by 3iii > Nov 13, 2017 09:23 PM | Report Abuse

The true margin on refining maybe much lower than the simple crack spread would suggest.

Thus, we soon realise the promoters got their estimated profits of Hengyuan so wrong in Q2.

Is analysisng Hengyuan within their circle of competence?

More hypes and hot airs, than real substance are the many posts on the various price levels that Hengyuan may reach! ;-)

The margin of error is definitely lower. But lets be fair.

You messed up at calling a sell at RM3.6. I wish i saw it at RM3.6.

Chances are, you called a sell before its up from RM2. Therefore you make the mistake of comparing to historical price instead of intrinsic value of the company.

At the current level of goreng, 60 sen is not enough i think need at least RM1.

If it stayed at around RM8, 60 sen enough d, but its now RM10.6, before quarter, might even reach RM 11.5 due to panic buying.

But, im no expert at this predicting quarter thing, nor do i intend to work at it.

I'll focus on just understanding businesses.

Posted by Halite > Nov 13, 2017 09:18 PM | Report Abuse

talking about expected value with value investor ?

wrong target lah......

you should talk to the day traders

How does it not apply in value investing? If you buy something that is good and cheap, all you need is some unexpected good news to cause people to notice it, like hengyuan at RM2.00. If result not good, price dont really move.

If you buy something good but expensive. You need god to come down and give you fantastic quarter otherwise you lose monye.

You're not a value investor, or even a day trader. You're a quarter investor. Dont kid yourself. :)

Posted by Jon Choivo > Nov 13, 2017 09:04 PM | Report Abuse

Ekovest is almost cheap. But not really. At 70 sen, then its definitely cheap. RM1. Not sure.

that shows you don't see far , yo see near

you do not look at its asset and earning potential , you are no different from others only looking at Bandar Malaysia , did not see it is a great favour botak had help Najib.

do not forget our masyarakat is kasih sayang masyarakat

you help me , I help you


At the current valuations, using EPF valuation for the highway, the highway is worth 1.3 bil and the construction business is the valued by the market at RM800mil. Pretty ok, almost cheap.

Duke is a fantastic highway, almost RM0.5 sen per KM and the volume is insane. Looking at DUKE 2 and 3, i expect those to be great highways as well and to earn buckets.

But like i said, its not nearly cheap enough that its a no brainer. If a business relies on corruption to succeed, its death when it comes will come swiftly.

On the off chance the opposition win this round, ekovest will die for you to see, like so many other companies that relied on political favours.

If ekovest spin off the highways, ill buy those. The constuction asset, i dont want.

its very hard to lose money when you underpay for something. And its very easy to lose money if you overestimate and overpay for potential.

The crack spread is the easiest measure people have to measure future profit. But it is the least precise.

Before someone say you only need to be roughly right and not precisely wrong.

Remember this, you have no out. The only way hengyuan will go up, if it beats last quarter and last year by a fantastic amount. If it show even flat earning. Sure drop.

Business wise, hengyuan i still ok, but not that cheap anymore.

thesteward
1655 posts
Posted by thesteward > Nov 13, 2017 09:08 PM | Report Abuse

Journalist sud hv some code of ethics

You should not be gambling. No gamble, no lose money.

Halite, i bought hengyuan before you did. :)

Posted by ESPESP > Nov 13, 2017 08:49 PM | Report Abuse

Stupid..

I think a more good calculation or estimation is as follows:

Expected value is where you put a valuation on the probability of an incident happening. Its useful for traders

For example

Probability of hengyuan fantastic result :20%
Price of Hengyuan if fantastic result: RM 18

Probability of hengyuan good result :50%
Price of Hengyuan if good result: RM 15

Probability of hengyuan bad result : 20%
Price of Hengyuan if bad result: RM 10

Probability of hengyuan horrible result : 10%
Price of Hengyuan if bad result: RM 8

EV is = ((20*18)+(50*15)+(20*10)+(10*8))/100
= RM 13.90

Like i said, that figure can pull from ass. Manatau, you really go pull.

When hengyuan shoot from RM2 to RM6. Its cause nobody expected a good result. Now everyone expects a good result, therefore a good result wont result in it shooting that high but may even result in a drop.

Now, i think hengyuan may go up more before the result since sentiment is so good for it, but that does not change the fact that its not that cheap anymore.

Ekovest is almost cheap. But not really. At 70 sen, then its definitely cheap. RM1. Not sure.

Ricky Yeo Given the unpredictable nature of macro factors, you want to be roughly right not precisely wrong. And it is common even for analyst to miss actual EPS by 10-30% +/-

Again this underlie a huge misassumption. EPS of a quarter has little to do with value, hence it rarely changes the fundamental valuation of a company. If share price does change, it has more has to do with market sentiment that true fundamental, disagree as you like. It is not that hard to test this hypothesis. That is why I can never fathom why someone would enjoy estimating EPS, throw in a multiple, 10x just to make it convenient, and assume the market will agree with him. And worse, when the actual EPS came out and confirmed his prediction and the share price followed, he started to think he is skilful. I think this misconception of fundamental is worse than the estimation of EPS, which itself is a futile exercise to begin with.
13/11/2017 09:15

Dont forget last round. Everyone predict heavenly result, show red.

This time, probability for good result is higher. Later, higher maintenance cost, give you see red. All die again.

jon, your method not convicing.. investment in stock dont think based on luck or probability.. LOL..

I dont base it on luck or probability. But for the people stockraider and probability is pushing to, are punters at heart, except they think they are investors. This means they wont know how to size their bets accordingly, and they wont use EV.

EV is also tied to the saying kcchongnz like to say. If im correct, i make alot, if im wrong i dont lose much.

That statement essentially describes EV.

anyway, im out. i hope you guys make your money.

The expecting value thing highlighted by chivo maybe good for gambling...but not suitable for Hengyuan investment mah..!!

1. Hengyuan deal with almost certainty deliverable with huge margin of safety loh.....!!

2. It is derived with good understanding of business like insider do loh..!1

3. The valuation is based on comparative valuation of peers in the mkt, which a step better than insider loh....!!

4. The valuation also derived...but gap analysis ...in earnings valuation by the mkt mah....!!

It is with this we say HENGYUAN is a great investment buy loh...!!
Even rm 10.60 still cheap mah...!!

The target is parity with PetDag in 2 yrs time about Rm 24.00 loh..!1
And it is realistic too...!!

At the current price, hengyuan will need to perform at the current level or better for at least 7 years, in order to earn enough to give you back the money you paid for it.

Its still very possible. But its not that cheap anymore. At RM5.6 or 7 or even 8, yes, promote like siao, can bring out dragon dance, the price is really low.

But 10.6, i would not promote so loudly if i was you.

I honestly not sure for future for hengyuan. It looks ok to good.

But at this price, its very close to fair value for me d. I might be wrong, like how i was with KESM to sell at RM10. Then again, KLSE is one of the most richly valued stock exchanges since we have so many institution support price.

There is no business so good that you cant overpay for. And there is no business so bad, it can never be cheap enough.

Probability and stockraider. You guys did not lie, nor did you con people.

But you definitely did not tell people regarding the downside of hengyuan. Since your on focus is to cultivate positive emotion and greed, and cause people to buy more.

Or perhaps, you do genuinely feel that hengyuan is such a good investment and nothing can go wrong.

In which case, what is a bubble except an investment that people feel can do never go wrong?

I dont think im a genius. I think im just probably more aware of what i dont know than most.

You guys may be right, hengyuan might actually grow into its valuations, and reach up to RM24 in 2 years and get fantastic result this quarter.

But i think, like all things, hengyuan will regress to the mean. It should not be trading at much more than current valuations, as i cant really identify a strong moat for it.

but in economics and stocks, things take longer than you think it would to happen, and when it happens, it happens faster than you think it should. It may go to RM24 and it may drop to RM5 in the next few years, but i think fair value is around here.

Last time people think oil price forever USD140, then they think can never go past USD30 after the drop. Now everyone thinking oil price will continue go up from USD60.

this is the same for crack spread and hengyuan performance.

So ah jon, hrc only worth 12 kah? U took into consideration of product crack spread for 2017 and 18 d?

I dont time the market. I just look for stocks selling far below their value.

Yes. You think if crack spread increase, other people wont ensure that their refinery operate at max capacity, increasing supply, and thus lowering the spread?

This year, people predicted MYR to USD to reach 4.8. Now its 4.1. Siao ah? Yes, long term trend SGD to MYR should be up, USD to MYR, i dont know, still alot of QE on their end.

Its futile to predict so I don't bother.

I look for companies that can do well despite low crack spread, and will kill it when high crack spread.

At the end of the day, the way we humans predict or extrapolate is by taking the current and putting into the future.

IE: RM dropping vs USD, so it should continue dropping all the way. (this turned out to be wrong)

Crack spread increasing, therefore it should maintain or even increase over time. (it might maintain or even go up abit, but as supply increase due to the high spread, it should go down, unless the demand for petroleum products is far higher than i expect)

Yes, it might be slightly accurate in the short term, but is pretty meaningless long term wise.

The question is this, you dont think people who buy the stock now dont know crack spread is high meh? If they know its priced in. What is a stock price other than future earnings paid today?

What do people dont know, but you know? I know a little about that for one of the companies i've been commenting on recently. But ill keep silent, as unlike stockraider, im not so rich, need wait for salary to buy more, or when people give me money to invest, and i havent buy enough.

Posted by Alex Foo > Nov 13, 2017 07:38 PM | Report Abuse

Can do similar probability analysis for q4?

I dont bother, its a waste of time, more art than science, figures all pull out from ass.

Even if i predict correctly, so what? I cant do it consistently. And the only predictions that make you money are the outlier ones. The six sigma events.

The only six sigma event i managed to predict was trump winning. That's it. Put some pocket money to bet then.

I think my life can predict two or three of such events is enough liao.

What i suggest is you learn to get a feel for things. I sold KESM at RM10. Did i make a mistake? I'm not sure, maybe. But i only know it was above my fair value and got other better things to buy.

Anyway, im done with posting for awhile. Time to get back to my annual reports.

Posted by probability > Nov 13, 2017 07:38 PM | Report Abuse

Despite all the elaboration..you still dont understand the refinery business...

I definitely recommend you to sell your stakes here and let go.

The most dumbest person to invest is the one who invest blindly using ratios and probability without any understanding of business.

It like you do all the research on the breast size and hip size...only to realize later you are f&%king a pondan!


The problem is when a person with an IQ of 120, acts like he has an IQ of 180. Ie when a genius thinks he's god giving them zero margin of safety.

You and the other guy predicted hengyuan last quarter result as if your god, can predict down to the million. When another guy tell you you're too optimistic. You and stockraider, fire him like he beat your mother like that.

Turns out, result not good. Drop to RM7.5. Raider say 3ii is bad for telling people to sell hengyuan at 3.6 and these people miss out on the subsequent gain.

He's right. But what about you and him frying the stock to RM8.6. The bad result cause it to drop to RM7.

Those thousands of people who buy not knowing what they bought, bought at 8.6, heart pain, cannot control emotion sell at rm7, and then dont want to look at the company again, and miss out to RM10.6.

You paying them money?

I make money not because of how much i know (although i think i'm pretty sharp on some things), but how i handle not knowing everything. Which is to research deeper and ensure a large margin of safety. You dont know what you dont know after all.

Let me put it this way, for the last 3 - 4 years, the method of predicting quarter results worked, because not many people doing. They buy expecting a good result, and when the good result come out, they sell to the people who find out about the good result at a higher price. Very lucrative as OTB have proven.

But now, everyone is doing it. Everyone buy expecting a good result, causing the price to shoot up, and everyone want to sell when the good result come out.

This is why so many companies got good result, but after quarter straight drop 3-4%.

My style is a bit different. I predict bad quarters from fantastic companies. So that when bad result out, i can buy cheaper. Or i look for companies no one want to look at because no one is goreng-ing the stock and thus it fall far under value. Or better still, a stock alot of people get burn so badly, they don't even want to see it anymore.

Hengyuan drop for 4 years from RM8 to RM2, that time, no one even look at the stock. At RM2, i looked at it, but didn't buy, cause no one goreng, and also because i stupid, rely on malaysiastock.biz, which hengyuan was buggy on then, the profit didnt show on the chart.

Same story for petronm, trade at RM3 for 4 years. No reason, company paying off debt so fast. At that time it was trading at 2x P/OPCF. You buy the company, within 2 years earn enough pure cash to pay you off, but people just dont want look cause no one goreng and O&G is bad.

I also did the same for airasia, buying from 1.2 to 0.9. I sold at 2.6 and rebuy at 2.1, sold at 3.

No need everyday goreng online and push people. No need feel bad for pushing people who have no business buying stocks into buying things that dont know.

And i can just spend my time reading annual reports. Just finished 5 years worth of annual reports from all 923 companies in KLSE a few months back and am now reading all the SGX and Nikkei companies. Much more useful that goreng-ing.

You see bonscythe, everyday goreng last time, then he go make that money, now, no one want to listen to him again, cause he sell to them after he post.

However, don't take it as me predicting the price of the stock in the future, i can only roughly identify the fair value.

Prices have a way of going far above or below fair value. =)

Expected value is where you put a valuation on the probability of an incident happening. Its useful for traders

For example

Probability of hengyuan fantastic result :30%
Price of Hengyuan if fantastic result: RM 11.5

Probability of hengyuan good result :30%
Price of Hengyuan if good result: RM 11.0

Probability of hengyuan bad result : 20%
Price of Hengyuan if bad result: RM 8.0

Probability of hengyuan horrible result : 20%
Price of Hengyuan if bad result: RM 6.5

EV is = ((30*11.5)+(30*11)+(8*20)+(6.5*20))/100
= RM 9.65

Intrinsic Value of the company on the other hand, is a whole another matter. I feel like Hengyuan is worth about 11 to 12. esp, since alot of the earning is revaluation. But i stopped buying at RM8.5 cause like 3iii said, refinery is not that easy of a business to understand. I only know that at 8.5 still worth buying, now, got alot of other better priced companies.

Sentiment wise, its definitely with hengyuan, but,i dont do sentiment, nor do i goreng. I just trust the value to surface at some point.

"Probability" your head. You know how to do "expected Value" calculation anot?

Some of the dumb man might swim, but alot will drown.

I own the stock dumbass.

Remember last round when you guys all predict heavenly result for hengyuan? What happen then.

My cost and your cost is damn low. Problem is the people who want to chase high starting at 10.6. You think if result good sure go up? People don't know how to buy beforehand and sell when result out?

So what if he bring attention here? He's only capability is then in goreng stock. And people who goreng stock is only interesting in taking other people money, not in the out perfomance of the company.

If result good, at best hit 11 or 11.5, if it does not go down from all the punters selling due to good result.

If result bad, it will show you RM7. All the people listen to you guys buy at 10.6 mai die loh?

Yes, in stock market, like poker, wise man take money from dumb man. But stockraider is purposely pushing the dumb man into the pool.

EV/EBIT is now 7, it was 5.4 some time back.

Don't forget, alot of the earnings is revalued oil inventory gain. That is not real operating earnings.

At 7, Favco is cheaper at 28, liihen at 6.5, latitud at 3, prlexus at 3.8.

Valuation wise, its pretty close to fair value.

Problem is, people is buying because everyone hope someone else will buy for more.

Don't forget evergreen, all your goreng cause the people who buy for wrong reason to die.

End of the day, you're style is to take money from other people, not the out performance of the stock. If the stock so good, just diam and collect. No need everyday shout one.

"The board should reward shareholders with warrant or bonus shares beacause minority shareholders has given their support in last EGM."

This is not a reward. They pay you with your own shares, you stupid ah?

Just do buybacks or div. Their current great management is enough reward.

Raider, stop frying the stock can ah. People are going to get hurt.

Yes, its a fairly decent company, and valuations now are not that demanding. But its no where near as interesting than it was at RM7.

You used to scold KYY alot for frying stocks, now you're doing the same. Don't be hypocritical.

My E.G. Services Bhd group managing director Wong Thean Soon sold all his stocks.

No, it does not mean its bad, but the only reason why this stock price go up is because he buy. Looking to buy again at 16 sen.

Bought some at 1.63 and a little at 1.64 lol.

Oh well, 1 or 2 sen nvm lah.

Gross profit is down. Net profit only up due to lower deferred tax. Not a good result.

No, every listing is overvalued.

Valuations wise, EV/EBIT, its now the same as TENAGA, which is 12. If it didnt drop, it would be 20. You telling me malakoff is a better energy company than tenaga? You crazy ah?

It should be lower than 10. Ill start looking at 0.7

In terms of EV/EBIT. The ratio is now a flat 3.

Which means if you buy the whole company now, it will make back your cost in 3 years flat.

Its a no brainer. We might be at the higher end of a furniture cycle, but this is way way way too low.

I share to you for what? You think my name is bonescythe is it? Buy first, share, then sell to you?

If i find those kind of company to goreng, then i share to you and make my money.

This one i dont want to sell wor. Instead i want buy more when i find more money. Share to you to increase my purchase price for what? I do research about the company, i share to you and i then i rugi summore.

Pay me 1000 RCECAP shares, i share with you , i promise you will be worth it.

I got ask you share anything to me meh?

Jeff Lee anybody has any research with target price? kind to share?

I have, but i wont share. You can look at the initiation report by BCT asia. Very informative.

If market no look good. Its god give you chance to buy more.

Phew, lucky didnt go up so much.

Sell, QOQ is bad. Rubbish company. Sell now.

I dont want the div sial. I want them keep the money and invest in the business.

shit stock, why result so nice, now everyone know and will buy.

Id buy some, but i like other companies as well. Oh well.

Well, this looks appealing.

Relax. you think i money drop from sky meh. Can buy every day ah. One day maybe lah.

I will, dont worry about it. The only thing you should be wondering about is why you bought it and why you're still holding it.

Sien why this rubbish stock go up, only at 7% of portfolio havent buy more. Hope it drop after result.

The last time earnings was this low, is in 2012, and it was higher then. Share price then was RM3

Huh? Gross is down from 20mil to 8 mil.

Thats a big diff, div income in the operating not gross.

i expect dividend to be cut to at least 20 sen this year. Which makes it yield 4.5%.

Problem with this stock, is that everyone listen to kcchongnz. He has some great points, it is a good company, but not a good buy at that price.

Before the drop, EV/EBIT was something like 20 plus. Which is the equivalent of only making back your money in 10 years if the company can grow 20% per year for the next 10. Which is close to impossible since they had good times when steel was low price, which is not the case forever.

At 20EV/EBIT, its more expensive than carlsberg.

No idea about that one.

Either way, i just saw pictures of people buying iphone X on fb, and the phone is more than their 1 month salary.

People's inability to manage money is something i can rely on. And this stock is cheaper than Aeoncr. Tbh, aeoncr got lower borrowing cost, but aeoncr dont have direct salary deduction.

Took my new phone money buy more shares. heh.