Stockmanmy,

Yes capacity is not reached, but you think whole world only got top glove? Supermax, Kossan, Hartalega all expanding, and they are expanding very aggressively.

Margins for all of them are being compressed year on year.

Rubber stocks are definitely overpriced, Hartalega is at best a 20PE stock and Top glove a 15 PE. Not their current price.

What is the loan for, why the borrowing shoot up suddenly?

Despite being down for so long EV/EBIT is still a high 10. Which is insane considering that its in a dying business.

When PE down to 10. Ill buy. This is a zero growth or negative growth industry. Gambling is all online, No one from GenY still buys toto. All gamble online.

"If you calculate the EV/EBITDA and EV/EBIT for T4Q, it is under 4.0X! Lots of future expansion growth totally disregarded.

Hopefully I can come in within the next 2 weeks."

Exactly, kind of the reason i didnt sell. Close eye buy.

If you do an analysis of their real margin, its actually comparable to magni's

Petchem up 100%.

Hengyuan this quarter should be fantastic.

Just dont respond. Just bought some warrants.

Soon liao. Come to 12 sen pls.

Did otb ask to sell or somthing?

I think you're right on this one stockraider.

I sold mine at 7.8, ill consider the extra i need to pay as tuition money.

I'm not encouraging punting (pump and dump) to get rich, i'm encouraging being almost 70-80% invested at times, with you ready to leap in during bear markets.

You say what you're doing is "punting", but in essence what you're really doing is just value investing anyway, just that you focus more and cyclical, turnarounds and fast growth, but you try to get out somewhere near 10-20% of the peak.

Yes, you can make a lot of money in the market, if you're aiming to make 10 times in 10 years etc. But this is not what the people who started investing in the last couple years are aiming for. They are aiming for super fast returns like Aemulus, VIS, Krono, and they are coming in when prices are very close to all time high, not understanding that the risk is no longer much better than the rewards.They want 20% next week. Or double in a year. Alot of the people i know are super concentrated.

One friend of mine laughed at me for only making 35% in airasia, he makes 10-30% per day gambling on crypto, during the major drop the last few week, luckily he didn't lose everything since he had presence of mind to not sell all.

Icon,you are one of the few i really respect, because of how insanely good you are sometimes. You are the only guy i know who held airasia from 3 plus all the way down to 2.1 and even top up.

I bought in at 2.5 on the way down and topped up a little bit down, but i almost sold at 2.1 because i was looking at 15% loss and i keep thinking KYY comment to cut at 10%. I sold half when it rebound to 2.5 but luckily kept the rest and averaged up to 3 once i did my research properly.

TLDR: Many people who are investing now, they are not pricing the risk correctly, they think they are genius because everything going up.They think they are special.

I'm saying balance that arrogance and humility, since in investing you need both, the arrogance to go against the market, and the humility to know you might still be very stupid and wrong.

Now punting make you rich, cause basically bull market for 10 years d (got some up and down, but nothing major). The people who started investing in the last few years, all very happy and make alot of money.

but its precisely these people who when crisis come, see portfolio down 30% in one day, wont know how to cope and panic sell, losing everything, cause they cannot participate in the future rebound.

My suggestion, if you think really you're really good and punting can make you rich, invest for your friend. Guarantee his capital, and EPF interest rate and give him 20% of the profit (above EPF) on top of it. Full skin in game.

Yes punting can make some rich. But icon, you are particularly good at it, most are not.

I remember what peter lynch said, you can never really be sure if you're a good investor. Studies show that you need at least 64 years record before you can say you are actually pretty good.

So many people so successful for years, some even for more than 10 years. Then suddenly, lose it all.

You know how to size bet and manage risk, and your articles are popular, so thats a major risk mitigator, when it comes to time risk.

Remember Croesus, story is not done until you die. Until then, better dont be greedy. You keep making money, later really sailang 100% on one stock because so confident, result down, limit down, margin call. Lose it all in a day.

Lim Goh Tong eldest son died owing RM400mil to cimb investment bank.

In 2012, they spend 370.255M in Capex, 165M in 2013. 55M in 2014 and 98M in 2015.

2015 and 2017 negligible at 37m total.

2014 record loss, 2015 profit, 2016 slightly higher profit.

If we assume that the PPE only come online in 2015, might be the reason. Need look deeper.

What aseng says is true, the faster the stock shoot up, the higher the increment of risk.

Risk is always highest at the peak. This stock now is at all time high since 2013 June.

Need to do much more research, is the refinery super improved thats why profit so nice. or just lucky only.

I know, but valuations wise. Lets say this makes 1bil this year. current EV is 11bil. A EV/EBIT of 10.

Hengyuan, lets say only 500m profit this year. EV of 3.8bil. Thats EBIT/EV of 7.5.

But hengyuan is assume that the next 3 quarters is equal to the first quarter only. If we extrapolate, it drops to 3.5-4 (really optimistic).

BY that metric, i would buy at 3 or around there, dont worry, i will live long time, let it drop summore.

You are telling the truth for you. But you did not take expected value into account.

Outcome does not indicate probability.

People can do stupid things and make money, or do smart things and lose money.

I know people make few hundred k better on options during trump and brexit. I also know people lose that few hundred k in just a few month after.

Icon, your demographic is not the general public.

Successful people very obvious, every day tell you how successful, people who lose money very quiet, never say anything, giving you the impression that a lot of people make money.

you go visit IWC forum see.

3 Ringgit i buy, otherwise hengyuan better.

stockraider REMEMBER TO APPLY WARREN BUFFET STRATEGY ON HRC LOH....!!

• Allocate your investment funds proportionately, placing the biggest bets on the highest-probability events.

• As long as things don’t deteriorate, leave the portfolio largely intact for at least five years (longer is better), and teach yourself to ride through the bumps of price volatility with equanimity.

Not just allocated to highest probably, but make sure to times expected returns since returns is asymmetric. This thing might be like KESM, but go always struggle, until suddenly break up. Or like Ulicorp, suddenly die for you to see.

business wise, i like refineries, but dunno why malaysia refineries, other than PCHEM, cannot sure consistent profit.

I think you need to do an Expected Value decision tree.

I think 40% chance next quarter will go up yoy and qoq. 50% chance go up YoY but not QoQ. 10% drop for QOQ and YOY.

If up qoq and yoy, it should shoot up 5% that day. If go down qoq but up yoy, it should go down 10%. If drop qoq and yoy, drop 50%.

Expected value is: (0.05*0.4)+(-0.1*0.5)+(0.5*0.1)= (0.08) or Loss of 8% expected value wise. Ill follow you guys to quarter, but sell before.

This is close to the all time high price for hengyuan.

The last time it was this high was in 2013.

Its very hard to just compare crack to profit. They are some inconsistencies

Jan to June 2016, crack drop like siao, profit up. Crack up from Jul to Sep 2016, they make loss. Crack up from Sept to Dec 2016, profit go up by alot.

Jan to March 2017, crack technically even or going up abit, profit go up.

Unless they changed their machinery or something its very hard to say next quarter going to up or down. This quarter, crack is down abit but not much. Im guessing YOY is up QOQ is down alot.

Interesting. Thanks.

Can you indicate the page on the annual report where you got the actual refining margin?

Including OCI, this quarter was better than the last, and 2017 earned more than 2016 no?

Wait, isnt the profit actually up? Theres a 1 million gain in forex.

Haha, revenue up, GP down.

This looks cheap.

Its the debt lah, 12billion in debt, even if they make 1bil in OPCF each year (Very optimistic), they need 12 year to pay the debt off. No thanks.

EV is more than 14billion for a company that can barely make 200mil a year, or break 1bil cashflow.

So many better companies in bursa.

Looks pretty good.

No complaints.

Sold liao probably

Until it drops, then everyone cry.

Tmr will be interesting.

In terms of moat, not really, very few companies in Bursa have moat. Companies with definite moat and hard to die.

1) PBA
2) TENAGA
3) AJINOMOTO
4) TIMECOM
5) NESTLE

Etc etc. other than PBA, the rest are really not cheap.

Hey niki,

I don't bother understanding or identifying churning, got better things to do with my time.

but personally, if you ask me i would have bought Esceram back then, i would'nt with what i knew now. I bought then using wrong logic.

1) P/OPCF ratio of the industry does not mean that a company in the industry should have a similar ratio or if its below the ratio it is undervalued.

A good business is a good business period. They should be valued individually.

2) They are cheaper companies.

but i'm holding cause i want to know if my analysis is right.

Simple.This company generates 30mil a year in cash.

The current MV is 46 times the current opcf. Why does this company deserve such an unbelievable valuation.

At hartalega's peak, it was trading at 25X OPCF, and this is the company that created nitrile gloves, have a fully automated line which the other glove makers don't and have the highest gross and operating margin in the industry.

Legal cigarettes is a dead industry in Malaysia. Even my Chinese friends starting to buy illegal ones.

Yeah, many malays smoke, but most got no money to buy Dunhill etc, they all buy the cheap illegal ones.

The question now is, is the msian govt be willing to lower tax on cigarettes since its obviously pointless in terms stopping people from smoking.

10 bucks bet nickicheong wont sell at 465.

Lai lai, ucky limpeh didint sell.

lol ckcs got banned.

I sold my warrants in prlexus on the first day, and bought more mother at 1.3.

In hindshight, i should have just sold everything and buy at 1.3, But i also remember ekovest, where i tried to time market, i bought at 2, sold at 2.2, wanted to wait for it to go below 2.2 to buy again. In the end it never went down, and i never bought, because in my mind, i kept thinking i could have gotten it cheaper, making me fail to value it as and then.

Also if your looking, fimacor is at 5 times and have moat since it makes security documents. Aeoncr is also a fantastic company, trading at 3 times operating cashflow, people fail to value it properly since most of its earnings go back in to make more money. If they gave it out in div, price would double.

Niki,

So yeah, i buy at the price i consider fair cause i dont have the brain power or time to really predict the bottom. and the time spent timing the market is better spent doing research.

I've also looked at asiafile once. Great BS, good div etc. But NTA wise its not undervalued, since most of the asset in PPE and Investment in associate. Which i just discount to zero, since in the event of liquidation its really not worth much.

OPCF to MV is it about 8-9 times. Which is really high since this is a business that is not growing (or even going down since people these days just upload docs into system) and really susceptible to attacks by lower pricing in say china. Plus PRLEXUS trades at 5 times, PetronM also 5 times,, thong guan 5 times, Except these are all in growing industries, and petronm is really cheap actually.

the only reason the price stay there is cause of dividend. In which case, if that is important, id just buy liihen, trading at 6-7 times opcf.

nikicheong,

Is it possible to predict the absolute lowest price with some accuracy to bottom fish?

Yes actually, however, it is stupidly difficult since it requires you to read volume, distribution etc, and to back test against bursa to test efficacy of your theory. Which is why, i think this is the domain of quants, or algorithmic trading. And the thing is, the more quant firms and AI's they are, the harder it is and the smaller the gain, since the previous patterns would have people bottom fishing too.

I follow like this. I do my analysis to determine is i would like to buy at that price, and i buy or don't buy. That's it. Though if im honest, sometimes i try to time it, but its like 50/50 honestly.

There are certain reliable and easy to recognize patterns which i use. but am not going to say since if more people use, the edge reduces. But its very hard for algo trading to work in msia since we dont have options and shorting ability.

dollychai2,

I actually read through the annual reports of every company in bursa =P. Doing comparative analysis now. Bursa is actually really small with less than 900 companies. The S&P plus DOW is more than 10k companies. You cant even keep track of quarterlies unlike here in msia.

i finished them in 2 months. A lot of companies is really easy to skip since you just look also you know wont hit your criteria. So in the end, you only really do analysis on like 100 companies and in there got like 40-50 that is considered cheap. and like 10-20 that is really cheap.

Skliew.

Just dont reply him. Later you will turn this forum into like the evergreen forum.

He's a troll. He gets off from pissing people off to get a reaction. Relax.

If you think its a worthy investment, all the talking by him wont change anything in the long term anyway. Everything moves towards fair value in the long term.

Its not someone deliberate sell down. Its KYY selling.

He still has 9million shares or so. Today volume only 2.2 million.

Ill give it 1-2months before he is done selling.

Close eye buy.

Wah, someone sell 22k shares price drop 4%. If tmr open at 2.20 i laugh till die. Buy till siao.

Im wondering if i should sell the warrants for the mother or mother for the warrants.

Skliew, you're right. PPE in terms of purchase cost, prlexus is 3 times less than magnitech. But in the report, it appears that the PPE for magnitech is only 1.7X more.

This is due to the machinery in Magnitech being much older. I think in terms of growth, prlexus is in a better position.

...Thailand buy rubberwood from thailand mah. You so free move the rubberwood to thailand for what, use in malaysia factory lah.

Any news or just market movement?

Ma de, where is my quarterly report ><

Haha