If he is smart enough, he should be back soon.
-----------------
Sslee Haha qqq3,
Icon8888 after earning one round now join back JAKS party for second helping.
You have earned few rounds from JAKS during Koon time why not join back JAKS party for happy hour?
10/03/2020 7:12 PM

Icon8888 sifu, Welcome back !

------------------
Icon8888 I am in

Long live OTB Sir !
10/03/2020 4:26 PM

I just can't understand qqq3. He is losing big in SCIB and KPOWER. Instead of licking his wounds there, he came here to enjoy himself by teasing OTB.

I went to open a margin account. I broke my own rule "never borrow to buy stock"

I never thought I would see Jaks below RM1 again. So, I can't resist the opportunity. Hope the bank will approve my margin account soon.

--------------------
Anon Where is DK66?
09/03/2020 5:20 PM

I went to open a margin account

--------------------
Anon Where is DK66?
09/03/2020 5:20 PM

Thank you i3lurker, it seems that there is a possibility that the COD can be achieved earlier than expected.

If it only takes a few minutes to sychronise to the national grid, then maybe Unit 1 can achieve COD much earlier ?

I3lurker, given your experience, can Jaks achieve COD for Unit 1 in May/June 2020 ?

Uptrending, yes, it is the net profit after tax.

uptrending, the various estimated profits represent net profit after tax of JHDP which is the JV company housing the power plant in Vietnam.

Time is our friend. Time is on our side. With each day passing by, the power plant is one day closer to commissioning. Good luck to those who are still waiting to buy cheap.

qqq3, obviously you do not know the ownership agreement of JHDP well to think that Jaks will be marginalized.

At least you got one thing right, coal price doesn't have much influence over the profitability of the power plant other than making coal powered electricity cheaper and more competitive.

Why spreading fear ? Because you have sold or because OTB is here ?

Please talk sense

If the previous dead president is so important, so all foreign companies are in deep shit now ?

qqq3, this kind of question can be directed at any companies listed on bursa and only insiders have the answer. Maybe you can show proof that Jaks cannot meet its cash flow requirements.

I have already proven that Jaks is able to meet its capital commitment long ago while you were still holding holding Jaks. Didn't hear you raising the doubts, why now ? because you have sold ?

------------------------------
qqq33333333 DK,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,does Jaks have enough cash to last another year? for capital commitments, for creditors, for late delivery penalties, for HQ, for completion of local projects, for local losses..and of course do not expect dividends from IPP for at least 1- 2 years...........rights issue/ private placements?

what kind of prices to have successful rights issue/ private placements?

me? This thing will go below $ 1 for rights issue / private placements to have any chance of success.............
05/03/2020 11:58 PM

Dear Sslee,

Thank you for your prompt reply.

I m just surprised with their decision to let the warrants expire. Wasted an opportunity to seize total control of Insas. I hope their decision will not be taken as lack of confidence in the company.

Anyway, if the company can continue to pile up its cash or distribute more dividend, Insas will not be taken lightly. I sincerely wish you all the best with insas.

Thank you.

Dear Sslee,

All the 132,601,268 Redeemable Preference Shares 2015/2020 ("RPS") were fully redeemed by the Company at RM1.00 each. It means the RPS were not utilised to exercise the warrants.

How do you assess the current situation of Insas given that the warrants were likely to be left expired ?

Thank you

All issuance of new shares to be listed must be approved by bursa malaysia and the listing of new shares must be announced.

Please enlighten me. Are you saying there is no need to announce issuance of new shares from the exercise of warrants ?

The article on Mong Duong II, however, revealed an important information about the capacity payment. I would expect all the 3 power plants to have very similar capacity payment which is not affected by operating efficiency. However, energy payment is highly dependent on plant load factor, plant availability, and plant efficiency.

Yes, they all have the same BOT contracts and their PPAs are very similar, if not identical. By right, Mong Dong II should be a closer resemblance to Jaks as their BOT and PPAs were the first 2 signed and Vinh Tan was sealed a year later. However, both Vinh Tan 1 and JHDP are using chinese technologies while Mong Duong II is using American technology.

Chinese thermal power technology has out grown Western technology. Mong Duong II was operating at 33-34% efficiency whilst chinese technology can achieve 36-38% efficiency for sub-critical design. As I have said, plant efficiency is an important determinant of profitability.

Therefore, I would say Vinh Tan 1 would be a closer match for JHDP.

Hope I have explained well.

-----------------
newbie8080 @DK66
This blog still apply if Vinh Tan 1 is closest?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-04-29-story204...
05/03/2020 6:39 PM

There is no announcement of issuance of new shares from the exercise of warrants

It seems that the warrants were not exercised .....

On 25 February 2020, all 132,601,268 Redeemable Preference Shares 2015/2020 ("RPS") were fully redeemed by the Company at RM1.00 each out of profits pursuant to Section 72(4)(a) of the Companies Act 2016 ("Act"). A sum equal to the amount of the RPS redeemed i.e. RM132,601,268 has been transferred to the share capital account of the Company pursuant to Section 72(5) of the Act.

reloy, Vietnam is very hungry for electricity now and is expecting shortage of electricity in the next decade. In view of the trade war, factories are moving from china to vietnam. Vietnam economic growth is currently the fastest in the world. Covid19 will not last forever, otherwise, you should consider spending all the money to stock up food and essentials.

JHDP has a 25 years PPA with the Vietnam government. It is protected by the capacity payment which will be paid by the government regardless of the production output of the power plant. In short, the government will have to pay even if the power plant is shut down.

A lot of research works have been done by myself and other i3 members here. All studies point to very high valuations but the price doesn't seem to respond well. There is only one possible explanation to this. Distrust and disbelieve are the words to describe the feelings of those still sitting on the fence. - "Why should we believe those writing with vested interest ?"

All I can say is you have already missed the chance to buy at RM0.50 and RM0.80 when you questioned my integrity. You must realise that I can't control the price. I could not possibly have pushed the price up.

You must not buy Jaks base on your intuition towards someone in i3. You must buy Jaks base on your understanding of Jaks. The articles found in this forum contain facts and figures which could serve as a guide. Even though you could net rely on them totally but at least they are better than "Why KYY sold?, Why Merican sold? Why CFO sold ? Why Mudajaya failed ? etc"

Thank you.

you are welcome

Edkfc, although the valuations derived in "Jaks Resources - Higher Expected Investment Returns from JHDP ?" and this article are both using data from Vinh Tan 1. However, different bases and assumptions were used . The former combines data from vietnam government, management guidance and Vinh Tan 1 utilization hours to arrive at the valuation. This article extract Vinh Tan 1 results from abbreviated results of its holding company by assuming the increase in profit attributable to NCI in 2019 was entirely pertaining to Vinh Tan 1.

Even though wild assumptions were made in both cases, the results were not vastly different. This suggests that Power plants under Vietnam BOT contracts are very lucrative.

Dear OTB, Noted with thanks.

Dear OTB,

I m still confident that the COD for Unit 1 will be May/June 2020. However, I will keep readers here informed if there is any new development which suggests otherwise.

----------------------
OTB Dear DK66,

I was told COD of unit 1 is May/June 2020. This timing is not changed yet as far as I was told.

Please help to verify COD of unit 1.
Thank you.
04/03/2020 10:09 AM

Gunter, thanks for the info

Probability, your understanding is correct. Thank you for helping to explain.

Monetary Policy Statement
3 March 2020

At its meeting today, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Bank Negara Malaysia decided to reduce the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 2.50 percent. The ceiling and floor rates of the corridor of the OPR are correspondingly reduced to 2.75 percent and 2.25 percent, respectively.

liewtz06, because the RMB553m is the portion attributable to the 45% NCI (100%-55%). I have to add back the PATNCI of 2018 because the prorate amount of RMB497m represents the INCREASE in PATNCI.


-----------------------
liewtz06 Hi DK66, thanks much for sharing. just 1 question, from what you've mentioned above 100% Vinh Tan 1 PAT = RMB553 / 45% = RMB1,230m should it be divided by 55% instead of 45%? since the ownership you've mentioned above is 55%.
03/03/2020 3:02 PM

liewtz06 Also, after the projection of 12 months PATNCI by /9 x 12 using 9 months results, why add another 53M which made the calculation based on 12 + 1 = 13 month? Kindly seek your clarification.... thanks!
03/03/2020 3:05 PM

I think some are still misinformed about the electricity landscape in vietnam. I am reposting Probability's findings.

--------------
probability Drastically deploy solutions to ensure electricity supply

March 2, 2020

http://hanoimoi.com.vn/tin-tuc/Doi-thoai/959878/quyet-liet-trien-khai-...

(HNM) - Forecasting that electricity demand in 2020 will continue to grow highly, while the electricity system has almost no backup of power sources, the water level of hydroelectric reservoirs is very low. Facing these challenges, Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) is actively implementing measures to ensure electricity supply. New Hanoi Reporter spoke with Mr. Nguyen Duc Ninh, Director of the National Electricity Dispatching System Center (EVN) on this issue.

- Could you tell us the challenges that EVN faces in securing electricity supply this year?

- This year, the estimated power output of the whole system is 260.5 billion kWh, an increase of 8.57%; in which, EVN's electricity production and purchase is 251.6 billion kWh; maximum capacity (Pmax) reaches 41,237MW, an increase of 7.9% compared to 2019. Meanwhile, the Group forecasts that the electricity produced and purchased by the whole system this year may reach 265.4 billion kWh, an increase of 9.1% compared to 2019. Based on the calculation of electricity supply - demand in 2020, the task of ensuring electricity supply, especially in the dry season power supply in 2020, will face many challenges.

Specifically, in 2019, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the north on the Da river main are not flooded and the situation in the extreme direction is getting worse. The volume of water stored in hydroelectric reservoirs by the end of 2019 will be 4.55 billion cubic meters below the normal rising water level, and it is forecast that there will be many disadvantages in 2020. Along with that, the electricity system has almost no provision for power supply, the progress of investment in new source projects is slower than expected. In January and February 2020, hydropower reservoirs on the Red River system must operate discharge of more than 2.7 billion cubic meters of water to serve the winter-spring crop of 2019-2020 of the Northern Delta. This makes the reserve water of hydropower is in short supply
- So how does this make it difficult for EVN's activities, sir?

- EVN's calculations show that the expected mobilization output is lower than 2.7 billion kWh because the water flow to the hydropower reservoirs is 65% lower than the frequency; gas output for electricity generation continues to decrease; The electricity generated from gas sources is expected to be 417 million kWh lower than planned.

Meanwhile, the total new power capacity expected to come into operation in 2020 is only 4,329MW (including 1,200MW of BOT Hai Duong thermoelectricity;
............................

1,138MW hydroelectricity; 118MW wind power; 1,873MW of solar power).


As such, EVN will have to mobilize maximum sources of coal and gas thermal power sources in the dry season as well as the whole year 2020 and the system will no longer have backup.
.............................

Therefore, the electricity system has many potential risks of not ensuring electricity supply in case of fuel risks.

- Overcoming these difficulties, how has EVN built the solution?

- To ensure adequate supply of electricity for socio-economic development in 2020, EVN has regularly updated and proposed solutions and promptly reported to the Prime Minister and the State Capital Management Committee at the joint venture. Industry and Ministry of Industry and Trade; actively direct member units to drastically implement solutions to ensure electricity supply right in January 2020.

In addition to the mobilized sources from hydroelectricity, coal thermoelectricity, gas, renewable energy ... Electricity industry is expected to mobilize 5.12 billion kWh from high-cost oil-powered power sources, including the dry season (from January). by June) it is expected to mobilize about 4.9 billion kWh from oil-fired thermal power sources in the hydrological conditions not improved. In fact, EVN had to mobilize oil thermoelectricity right in January to regulate and keep hydropower plants to ensure adequate supply of electricity for load demand. EVN also increased mobilization from coal sources of 2.237 billion kWh, mainly from new coal-fired power plants

and experimental running plants.
...............................
02/03/2020 10:33 AM

Sarifah,

If JHDP 30% ownership is only worth RM0.70 to Jaks, and if the 70 sen is derived using PE of 10, it means it is only expecting 7 sen or RM45m annual profit from JHDP. Hence, JHDP will only earn RM152m (USD36m) a year, and total of USD900m for 25 years

In other words, after investing USD1870m in JHDP, it will only generate a total net cash flow of USD2770m (1870+900) for 25 years. This is a total of merely 48% return over 25 years, equivalent to a compound return of about 1.5%. Is this a good investment decision ?

OTB, thanks
-----------------------
OTB https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/nanyang_stock_expert/2020-03-03-stor...
----------------------
The share price of Jaks will challenge 3.25 to 3.35 resistance level.
All Jaks investors will be laughing all the way to the bank.
When ??

DK66, please read this technical chart.
Thank you.
03/03/2020 1:45 PM

ok. let me do some calculations

sarifah, I don't quite understand your 70 Sen. Could you elaborate?

i3value, yes, it is only the power plant. Still need to consider local expenses in Malaysia

i3value, The project cost and financing structure is very similar to JHDP. The PATNCI is already the Net profit after tax.
-----------------
i3Value DK, 221m or 295m is GP only isn't it? Still have to take into account local expenses and finance costs before calculating EPS
03/03/2020 12:02 PM

Anon, leapkcfy, you are welcome

Hng33, it is not advisable to place too much emphasis and reliance on the valuation derived in this article as the validity of the assumption used is highly debatable. It merely serves to prove that the power plants under BOT in Vietnam are highly profitable.

The valuation here is consistent with the average valuation derived in the article below;

Jaks Resources - A More Accurate And Reliable Average Valuation
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-16-story-h1483823173-Jaks_Resources_A_More_Accurate_And_Reliable_Average_Valuation.jsp

speedlikecy, you are welcome and thanks for your "like"

Davidleong, you are welcome

----------------
Davidleong thanks DK66 for another valuable analysis!
03/03/2020 11:19 AM

My first TP is just a safe discount of my ultimate TP

---------------------
Hector99 DK66,

Please go ahead with your estimates.

By the way, how do you arrived at your first TP 2.50. Thank you.

Jaks Resources - A Wild Estimate Based On Abbreviated Results

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-03-03-story-h1484685319-Jaks_Resources_A_Wild_Estimate_Based_on_Vinh_Tan_1_s_Abbreviated_Result.jsp

Ok, please wait a while. Please be reminded that the assumption is very wild.

--------------
leapkcfy DK66 we can decide ourself.. no harm to do wild estimate now.. and the believers will always the believer and naysayers will be forever stay away..
03/03/2020 9:44 AM