I can do a calculated estimate of Vinh Tan 1's 2019 earnings with one wild assumption. The estimate may deviate substantially from actual results which will not be known until end April. Should I rather wait until end April or you don't mind a wild estimate ? Please advise.

You are welcome. 2.50 is my first TP
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Anon DK66 thx for your sharing. Mind to share what is your 1st TP?
02/03/2020 8:23 PM

Just a timely sharing of brief information on Mong Duong II

1. Income Distribution in Q4 2019 = US$4m. Total for 2019 = US$149m
2. Total Revenue increased 40% or US$98m from US$245m in 2018 to US$343m in 2019

Bear in mind that the revenue figure does not include capacity payment which is recognised as interest income. The revenue is essentially Energy payment.

I m still waiting for more information. That is all for now.

Thank you.

Probability, thanks for the info

Dear VIN3133, I don't live in KL.

Don't worry, I trust OTB is more than capable to ask for crucial information. He is aware of the information I m looking for and I know he will try his best to get those information. Of course, ALP is aware of what we want to know. The question is how much information is ALP willing to disclose.

What I will ask is classified information which requires PPA to be revealed but I don't think the market needs to know those technical information. Just the estimated range of future earnings from the power plant will allow the IBs to value Jaks more appropriately.

I will find ways to get the information we wanted. For now, Jaks' price is trading at 50% discount to my first TP. It was distracted by the recent political turmoil. It should be back to normal now as we have a new PM. I believe UMNO linked stocks will thrill for a while.

Thank You.

There is no earnings guidance on Hai Duong Power plant given to Publicinvest to enable them to value Jaks on future earnings. For a company to be valued using RNAV with discount, it is usually distress valuation without regard to earnings. It is normally done when the company is believed to be facing current earnings setback. This method is not suitable for Jaks as any valuation without consideration of its power plant which is commissioning soon is not fair and reliable. IBs may not wish to spend too much time doing research on their own, they usually rely on management for guidance.

Some were constantly questioning why Dato' Razali Merican bin Naina Merican, a director of Jaks, was selling Jaks' shares.

For those who still haven't figure out the reason, let me give you a hint. Find out who is Dato' Sri Reezal Merican bin Naina Merican and his relationship with Dato' Razali Merican bin Naina Merican.

Would it make any difference to Jaks if UMNO is back in play? Just guessing ......Maybe, maybe not .....

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HuatRex>Lol DK66, don't keep throw your Holland guessing to trap people buying
29/02/2020 8:44 PM

Why are you afraid of this possibility? But at the same time you keep guessing also ....
Other people cannot guess ?

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HuatRex Lol DK66, don't keep throw your Holland guessing to trap people buying
29/02/2020 8:44 PM

Will Merican buy back Jaks now?

you are welcome

I expect it to be in May/June 2020
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Anon DK66, do u know when unit 1 start full.commercial operation?
28/02/2020 9:19 PM

From the company announcements to bursa malaysia

Kalteh, it is good that you spotted the abnormally. It get complicated to explain. I was only using 49% as a general guideline as Jaks owns 51% of its major property arm, island circle development. However, do note that Jaks had a few dealings with its subsidiary where Jaks purchased car parks, residential and commercial units from its subsidiary at below book value. These transactions resulted in losses incurred at subsidiary level but no effect on group level. Thus, the share of losses by non controlling interests is actually greater than 49%.

Apart from property losses, there are investment holdings and share plan expenses as well as taxation with non controlling interests.

Probability, thanks for the info

Updated

Jaks Resources - Q4 2019 results

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-27-story-h1483998942-Jaks_Resources_Q4_2019_results.jsp

kalteh, You are welcome. I m glad that you have a new knowledge.

qqq3, don't you have dignity ? You talked bad about Jaks just because OTB is here ?

Political turmoil and Covid19 are temporary so is your opportunity.

Thank you for correction. Actually, political tumour is also appropriate to describe certain of our politicians.
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Investing_Bursa Wah DK, political tumour very hard to cure d.....political turmoil easier....heheheeh
28/02/2020 3:30 PM

Political tumour and Covid19 are temporary so is your opportunity.

There are 1108 down counters now. People should spend their quality time on the stocks they want to buy. Don't wait this precious opportunity.

There is 1094 down counters today. Jaks is no exception

I have seen the worse correction of Jaks. This is nothing to me.

Thank you

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OTB Posted by DK66 > Feb 28, 2020 9:24 AM | Report Abuse

I m not in KL
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Ans :
I will update you.
Thank you
28/02/2020 9:26 AM

I m not in KL

Probability, it would be RM44m

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-27-story-h1483998942-Jaks_Resources_Q4_2019_results.jsp

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@DK66, If the above impairments are taken out, what would be the profit attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent (Jaks)?
28/02/2020 1:09 AM

edkfc, you are welcome. Hope this article can keep readers here timely informed. I apologize for the rush work.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-27-story-h1483998942-Jaks_Resources_Q4_2019_results.jsp

I will provide an analysis of the current results in a while. In short the results was good. The progress billings was better than expected. The management has taken the opportunity of the overall good 2019 results to accelerate the goodwill and assets write off. This is good for future accounting.

leapkcfy, pjseow, thanks.

Knowledge and confidence are very important during those difficult periods.

leapkcfy, it wasn't a pleasant experience, it was hell. I lived in disbelieve. However, I remained confident of my own research. I believe the stock fell because of corporate tussle. I told myself it is an opportunity of a lifetime, just buy and wait of the power plant to come online and I will be rewarded. I saw the award of free shares to directors as an indication of turnaround and I was right.

The minor correction now caused by political tumor will not affect Jaks' power plant. In fact, it is opportunity for those waiting to buy.

The articles written by me along the way reflect my thoughts through the up and down. Feel free to read if you are interested.

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leapkcfy DK66, out of curious. Can u share ur experience on the ride from 1.8 to 0.40 then to current 1.40.. it is not an easy ride
27/02/2020 11:39 AM

MR ANG LAM POAH 13-Jun-2018 Acquired 50,000 1.400 View Detail
MR ANG LAM POAH 12-Jun-2018 Acquired 250,000 1.390 View Detail
MR ANG LAM POAH 08-Jun-2018 Acquired 550,000 1.403 View Detail
MR ANG LAM POAH 23-Oct-2017 Acquired 1,800,000 1.400 View Detail
MR ANG LAM POAH 13-Oct-2017 Acquired 176,200 1.260 View Detail
MR ANG LAM POAH 13-Oct-2017 Acquired 1,800,000 1.400 View Detail
MR ANG LAM POAH 20-Jun-2017 Acquired 100,000 1.500 View Detail
MR ANG LAM POAH 15-Jun-2017 Acquired 200,000 1.510 View Detail
MR ANG LAM POAH 19-Apr-2017 Acquired 230,000 1.590

Please be informed that if anyone says DK is selling, it is fake news.

pjseow, thank you for the analysis.

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pjseow Travestor, please see my.comment in.mfcb forum. The energy sales is 35.1 million with a profit of 26.4 million.from the 85 MW line to Laos. A.very good gross margin of 75 %. Water is free . This number translate into 323 million per year . MFCB management and the IB s estimated 240 to 260 million.profit per year.
26/02/2020 8:56 AM

Travestor, I think "evacuate" here means "dispatch out". Don Sahong is a hydropower, it depends on the water condition to generate electricity. It has a rated capacity of 260MW, hence, it could be generating 260MW but only dispatched out 85MW as the transmission line to Cambodia is not ready.

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Travestor DK66, do you know what's the meaning of "evacuate" in the following? Does it mean generate?

"During the period to 31 December 2019, Électricité du Laos (“EDL”) was able to evacuate only up to 85 MW of power while awaiting the completion of the new 500KV transmission line to
Cambodia."
26/02/2020 8:12 AM

I have a feeling that some big guys are taking every panic sell opportunity to accumulate big behind the scene. I don't think they are looking at the short term financial results. The must be attracted by the future earnings of the power plant. They have waited until the power plant is near commissioning to minimise their risks. This stock has very high liquidity, it is not easy for anyone to push up the stock without very strong background.

Windy, good on you ! I wonder how many followed your footstep ?

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Windy1974 Bought more at open 1.41 and Wa at 1.09. Today and tomorrow would be great to annouce QR
25/02/2020 9:21 AM
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DK66 sniper123, it is an opportunity to buy cheap.
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sniper123 DK wats ur take on jaks in d midst of poilitical uncertainties???
24/02/2020 12:41 AM
24/02/2020 8:04 AM

sniper, I made it clear already

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-12-22-story-h1481884872-Jaks_Resources_What_You_Should_Know_About_DK66.jsp

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sniper123 DK will u buy n add more 2 ur portfolio???
24/02/2020 9:44 AM

sniper123, it is an opportunity to buy cheap.
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sniper123 DK wats ur take on jaks in d midst of poilitical uncertainties???
24/02/2020 12:41 AM

elbrutus, I m totally clueless. Do note that results may be announced during afternoon break.

sonny7088, Thank you

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sonny7088 Thanks D66 for your unselfishness in sharing your research and analysis of Jaks. May you be well and happy always.
23/02/2020 10:44 AM

Jaks Resources - Ranked 170th In Market Capitalisation

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-22-story-h1483912636-Jaks_Resources_Ranked_170th_In_Market_Capitalisation.jsp

It is important to get fund managers' interest in Jaks as they usually invest for long term.

Paktua73, elbrutus, pputeh, I appreciate your good words.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-12-22-story-h1481884872-Jaks_Resources_What_You_Should_Know_About_DK66.jsp

sniper123 DK just curious wats ur average price 4 jaks??
22/02/2020 5:23 PM

Just my observation, do you think using 9 months PBT for projection will be a more reliable method. Just in case there are abnormality in Q3 results.

JHDP awarded 2 EPC contracts to CPECC and Jaks. EPC1 worth US$1,060.5m was awarded to CPECC, and EPC2 worth US$454.5m was awarded to Jaks. The entire EPC2 jobs was subcontracted to CEEC, a subsidiary of CPECC, and Jaks got a clean cut. However, Jaks still has to do the progress billings.

As the Jobs nature of EPC1 and EPC2 are completely different, hence, their level of completion will not be the same. For external reporting purposes, I believe only the overall completion is taken.

In any case, the ringgit equivalent of US$454.5 cannot be only RM1,678.8m as the implied exchange rate is only 3.69.

I meant 73.8% till Sept 2019

Thanks for sharing.

My opinion is you should not use the 82% as Jaks' total progress billings todate. The Edge's figure refers to the overall completion of the entire project.

Jaks' EPC2 is US$454.5m x 4.1 = RM1,863m instead of RM1,678.8m.

Therefore, I believe Jaks' progress billings is 73.8% todate.

elbrutus, yes carole king