I m glad that probability has validated my articles and is now convinced.

I hope more can proofread my articles so that everyone including myself can be more confident.

Thank you, Probability

i3lurker, you are welcome

The delay here cited by the Ministry Of Industry And Trade was based on the original planned schedule. Extension was given to Jaks to secure a new partner after Kaidi failed to secure financing. After the new partner,CPECC, secured financial close, the finalised deadline for completion of unit 1 is 48 months from the project official start date of 1 Dec 2016. Therefore, commercial operation date (COD) for unit 1 is set on 1st Dec 2020 after which penalty will apply.

Now the plant is set to complete in Mid 2020 which is about 6 months ahead of schedule. No delay.

Just look at London biscuits ........... RM363m receivables write off. Fishy ??

My stock investment ideology;

1. Find and confirm the gem
2. Pound on it
3. Hold and continue to evaluate
4. If Wrong - Exit and return to step 1
5. If Right - Need more $$ - return to step 1
- Enough $$ - Retire

Stock market is a dangerous place to stay. More failure than success. Full of traps.

Always do homework and understand your investments. Do not over-invest until you have to jump off the twin towers if your investment lets you down. Always keep a second chance 留得青山在。

Treat all your investments seriously. Do not sell prematurely for small gains because your next investment may not be successful. Minimise your losses and maximise your profit.

Just to share. Thank you.

I found this in the article "The quickest way to validate an idea, a theory, or a hypothesis is not to confirm, but to falsify it." - I totally agree !

Believe it or not, this is exactly what I have been doing. I have been trying to prove that the power plant is not that great, but i failed.

You can see that I have used various different ways to evaluate the power plant. I was trying to prove myself wrong !

Why I asked for feedback ? Because I was hoping someone could prove otherwise.

I don't need people to agree with me, but I actually treasure those disagreed. Because I become more right if I can prove them wrong.

Thank you.

---------------------------------
Up_down Ricky yeo article “ First, Kill Your Ideas“
29/11/2019 11:34 PM

I believe it will worth your time. I spent so much time on the power plant.

I would be grateful if you could provide feedback.

Thank You.

---------------------------
probability true DK66...i really need to sit and go through all your articles.
29/11/2019 11:10 PM

Probability, I agree with you.

I have seen many come and go on Jaks including Mr Koon. But I remain confident with Jaks Hai Duong Power plant.

I will not leave until I found reason to believe otherwise.

Each has his/her own reason, including fatigue, to buy and sell. Don't simply follow others. Follow you own path to your destiny. Whether right or wrong, at least you won't regret your decision.

The reason why I present my articles with evidences is I do not want blind followers. I hope everyone can buy with self confidence.

I believe there is a fundamental reason for every price action. Jaks fell from 1.84 to 0.40 due to margin calls. The near completion power plant could be the reason for the recent price surge. Now, price correction on profit taking is normal. However, what could be the reason for Jaks to give up all the price gain and fall back to RM0.80 ? Well, Market crash could be a possible explanation. Otherwise, there could be something wrong, if so, any reason to buy anymore ?

--------------------------------
OTB Posted by Icon8888 > Nov 29, 2019 9:59 PM | Report Abuse
If it falls back to 80+ i will be back in

Ans :
In this case, the trend of Jaks is no longer up trending.
If it is down trending, no need to buy Jaks anymore.
Please read my updated article sent to you, please note that the major support level.
Thank you.
29/11/2019 10:12 PM

RTO is most likely as consideration is fully settled by new PEB shares

Star tower CCC obtained as well ??

Despite the better-than-expected results, we lower our EPS forecasts for 2020/21 by 32% and 6% respectively to factor in the LAD charges arising from the delay in the completion of the Pacific Star projects. Management had previously guided that the overall project will be completed by end- 2019; however, we believe that the whole project may only be completed earliest by mid-2020. Nevertheless, there are some positive developments, as the Business Hub and Car Park has obtained the certificate of completion (CCC). - Affin

A listed company's status is worth some RM20m

Yes, including me.

After reaching RM1.43, I didn't think anyone can get to buy at RM1.10. What a golden second chance for those left behind.

----------------------------
i3Value

Do share some current TA reading if you can, please. Many here got shocked today
27/11/2019 7:12 PM

Ramada, you are welcome

Ramada,

In my opinion, Pacific star will be completed soon which will stop the LAD.

Malls take time to break even.

Without the LAD, I think Jaks should be able to keep its annual operating losses on malls within RM5m. Just my estimate.


----------------------
ramada DK66, how about the loss-making property division? You think this division can turnaround in 2020? Just want to listen to your view.

As I have expected, Jaks recorded about 9% progress billings on its Vietnam EPC works in Q3 which is lower than the 12% in Q2. This is normal as the management has indicated that the billings will follow "S" curve. As the works on the power plant has progressed into testing phase, it is normal that the progress billings will gradually slow down.

As I have said, the results is primarily construction profit which is non recurring in nature. Therefore, it has no bearing on the valuation of Jaks whose future earnings will be dominated by power business.

Many could have feared of a loss results for Q3 2019 as Q3 2018 recorded a loss of 2.7m.

RM25m profit in current quarter will help keep large funds invested while waiting for the plant to start operation.

For the benefit of those new to this forum, I provide the following information;

1. I expect unit 1 of the power plant to start operation in April/May 2020, unit 2 to start 4 months later
2. The power plant will be IMMEDIATELY profitable upon operation. This is proven by 2 other power plants in vietnam under the same BOT contracts which began operation not long ago.
3. I have evaluated the power plants using various methodologies and all pointing to very high valuation (please visit my articles for details)
4. My first target price is RM2.50

Thank you

----------------------------------------
probability key catalyst question is when is the power plant going to contribute economically?
for short term holders more than 6 months, current price may not be that attractive...
for long terms holders even 9 months could be very attractive.
..............
may be sifu DK66 can enlighten on the above...i am sure he would have done that earlier..but for newbies a refresher would be very helpful

Is the concession based on "take or pay" basis ?

OTB is right.

It doesn't matter how much Jaks is making in Q3 as long as it is not making losses which will frighten fund managers away. Jaks reported heavy losses in Q4 2017 and a mild loss in Q3 2018 when share prices were devastated after results announcements.

Until the power plant starts operation, Jaks depends on its EPC jobs in vietnam to overcome domestic losses to stay profitable. However, these are non recurring construction profit. Therefore not meaningful for valuation purposes.

Thus, valuation of Jaks hinges on its 25 years cash flows from the vietnam power plant.

I have deployed various valuation methods and all pointed to very high valuation. You may visit my blogs for those valuation articles.

Recently, I found evidences to substantiate my earnings estimates of between RM300m to RM500m to Jaks. However, I need confirmation from AES and Vinh Tan 1 2019 annual reports which will only be available in early 2020. I hope not to be disappointed.

In any case, I remain confident with my first target price.


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OTB Posted by DK66 > Nov 21, 2019 3:09 PM | Report Abuse

I m only expecting Q3 2019 EPC progress billings to be around 7 - 10%

Ans :
As long as Malaysian operations do not lose big money, Q3 2019 result should be good enough for the share price to move up north.
Presently, the share price continue to break new high which is a good news to us.
"Human can lie, chart never lie", continue to break new high is what we want.
Thank you.
21/11/2019 7:53 PM

Progress billings in Q2 was 12%

I m only expecting Q3 2019 EPC progress billings to be around 7 - 10%

i3dk66@gmail.com

human, thanks

human, mind to share how you arrived at your earnings estimates ?

Pjseow and VIN3133, You are welcome. I m glad that both of you have benefited from my sharing.

connie24, just visit my blog on i3. No need to subscribe. It is free for everyone

Probability,

Q3 2018 results showed a loss of 2m. Are you expecting this qtr results to be a loss too ??

------------------------
probability suggest to exit Jaks tomorrow - just gut feeling earnings wont be good this qtr and good earnings is still very far..far away

Prospects
Power Division
1. Hydropower - Don Sahong Hydropower Project (“Don Sahong Project”)
Civil works of the Don Sahong power plant and Don Sahong’s portion of the
transmission line from the Don Sahong switchyard to Ban Hut sub-station are
completed at the date of this report. On even date, all four generating turbines
have been successfully tested and are ready for commissioning.
Construction of the 500KV by-pass transmission line by Électricité du Laos (“EDL”)
to the Laos/Cambodia border and the 500KV connecting transmission line by
Electricite Du Cambodge (“EDC”) from Laos/Cambodia border to Stung Treng in
Cambodia is scheduled for completion before the year end.
Management remains confident of achieving commercial operation date (COD) by
the end January 2020.
The Group is expected to recognise most, if not all, of the remaining 5% of the
construction revenue and profit in the final quarter of 2019. Additionally, the Group
is expected to recognise some energy sales from commissioned turbines in the
fourth quarter. Before the completion of the 500KV line which is capable of
transmitting up to 85 MW of power.
On 12 September 2019, EDL of Laos signed a new PPA with EDC of Cambodia
to sell up to 500 MW hydro power to Cambodia. This is on top of the 195 MW PPA
signed between the same parties earlier on 6 March 2019. Given the additional
hydro power demand from Cambodia, the government of Laos has given in
principal approval for the 5th turbine expansion by Don Sahong subject to, amongst
others, approval of feasibility study report and environmental report, and the
conclusion of negotiation of the commercial terms with EDL.

From MFCB results announcement :

Prospects
Power Division
1. Hydropower - Don Sahong Hydropower Project (“Don Sahong Project”)
Civil works of the Don Sahong power plant and Don Sahong’s portion of the
transmission line from the Don Sahong switchyard to Ban Hut sub-station are
completed at the date of this report. On even date, all four generating turbines
have been successfully tested and are ready for commissioning.
Construction of the 500KV by-pass transmission line by Électricité du Laos (“EDL”)
to the Laos/Cambodia border and the 500KV connecting transmission line by
Electricite Du Cambodge (“EDC”) from Laos/Cambodia border to Stung Treng in
Cambodia is scheduled for completion before the year end.
Management remains confident of achieving commercial operation date (COD) by
the end January 2020.
The Group is expected to recognise most, if not all, of the remaining 5% of the
construction revenue and profit in the final quarter of 2019. Additionally, the Group
is expected to recognise some energy sales from commissioned turbines in the
fourth quarter. Before the completion of the 500KV line which is capable of
transmitting up to 85 MW of power.
On 12 September 2019, EDL of Laos signed a new PPA with EDC of Cambodia
to sell up to 500 MW hydro power to Cambodia. This is on top of the 195 MW PPA
signed between the same parties earlier on 6 March 2019. Given the additional
hydro power demand from Cambodia, the government of Laos has given in
principal approval for the 5th turbine expansion by Don Sahong subject to, amongst
others, approval of feasibility study report and environmental report, and the
conclusion of negotiation of the commercial terms with EDL.

I have warned multiple times that for those who wish to wait for the power plant to start operation before buying must be prepared to give up the first few hundreds percentage gains.

You are welcome

----------------------
paktua73 paktua n his troops..
stand salute to good sifu..
thanks fir good sharing dear DK66..
paktua bring lion heart spiritual only..
fight to awake all feeble traders
we stand salute too good sifu like DK66

you rise we up..

https://youtu.be/lMW9EkIRadQ

stand salute too DK66
a greats sifu on jaks kingdom..

tut tut
troopers stand uppp...
standdd saaaluteee!!
18/11/2019 12:25 PM

The solar MOU lapsed on 30 Sept with no announcement of extension.

Lucas Chan, I repost my past comment

--------------------------------------------------------
Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Oct 14, 2019 5:05 PM | Report Abuse

If you read my past comments, you will notice that I reduced my TP due to a tragic drama where someone died. I appreciate reminder from AhSeng that many could be following my calls and I should not "induce" sailang behaviours. Therefore, I reduced my TP.

For the same reason, I should not reveal my next TP until my first TP is hit.

Thank you.

----------------------------
dailyklse2010 DK66,

May i know your second target price ?
14/10/2019 4:58 PM

Lucas Chan Dk66, first tp 2.5, second tp?
18/11/2019 1:29 PM

jakko, Weiiii ,

My FIRST tp is RM2.50

You are welcome

--------------------------
VIN3133 Bro DK66, u r great !! TQVM !!
Hope OTB & group continue to support Miss Jaks all the way to its intended TP as projected by DK66 !!

Let us Huat Huat together !!

You are welcome.

I m strongly confident that I will be able to substantiate my earnings estimates of between RM300m to RM500m to Jaks (40%) next year when both Mong Duong 2 and Vinh Tan 1 release their 2019 annual report in early 2020.

I hope my next article will take the stock to my Target price.

-------------------------------
OTB Thank you DK66, you had made my group laughing all the way to the bank.
I hope my Miss Universe stock will never disappoint me.
Thank you for your excellent report.
18/11/2019 11:01 AM

Anyway, the case is ongoing. It is not for us to judge.

The court ordered to release the 50m as the BG is irrevocable and repayable on demand. Nothing to do with the underlying transaction.

Jaks is claiming 600+ millions from The Star

I think most are only "punting" here

I wonder how many here actually believe that the price is up because of accumulations by large investors in anticipation of the power plant coming online soon.

The IBs needs to revise their target prices higher. It is now trading at 181% of publicinvest's TP (0.75), 136% of Affin (1.00)

steady31, thanks for the information. This is another method of peer comparison.

-------------------------
steady31 the market valuation for bursa stocks is cheap.Jaks should be over 3.00 on completion .Yesterday a biomass power company,Absolute Clean Energy with a operating capacity of 211MW and eventual capacity of 1000MW was listed in Bangkok with a market cap of USD1470m(RM 6027M) giving it a valuation of mre than 6m per MW.Jaks 360MW would be 2160M or 3.35 per share

Dear Sslee,

Are all companies that pay dividend debt free ?

-------------------------------------
Word of caution, JAKS’s cash flow is still negative and it will take sometimes to pay off the debt, only then FCF will be used to pay dividend.

You are welcome
----------------------------
michaelwong A great indept contributions by DK66 ever since when jaks price was somewhere around.70cents. Bro! many thanks to your greatest jobs and many will salute and remember your solid informative contributions . I regretted l sold part of the share too early . Anyway , for this counter stock, l still make handsome profits . Cheers !
14/11/2019 8:25 PM

At today closing price, even those who bought Jaks at 1.77 and subscribed for the warrants have made half cent gain.

1.36 + (1.08-0.25)/2 = RM1.775

I m happy for those who have faith in me as they would have made a fortune by now. Those who have doubted my sincerity have missed the great opportunity to buy cheap. I wish they had focused on the facts presented by me instead of trying to judge me. How could you judge anyone in i3 whom you have never met ??

-------------------------
VIN3133 Yes, bro DK66, indeed your FA sharing on Jaks is a great sharing and in creating greater awareness on Jaks potential .
Even TA sifu OTB has to read your reports in detail many times to make sure his recommendation is backed by solid FA.

I m glad that many have benefited from my sharing. Thank you

Thank you

-------------------
OTB Dear DK66,
I will send you a copy of my recommendation report privately.
Thank you.
14/11/2019 10:04 AM

@0.82, 193% ROI = RM2.40 which is almost my first TP too