There will not be anymore depreciation under the new accounting standard. The power plant will not be recognised as concession assets. It will be recognised as "Loan receivables".

edkfc, Thanks for sharing the news.

Yes, lower cost of coal, though will not benefit JHDP much but will reduce the cost of electricity to EVN

-----------------------
edkfc Lowest thermal coal px in a decade !! Looks like it will drop further or remain low for a long time to come. This is great news as it will cost less n less for Viet govn to operates and thus higher priority will be accorded to Hai duong type of power plant to function. PTL

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/27/price-of-australia...
28/12/2019 12:28 PM

Probability,

This is due to market inefficiency. Many are still doubtful or unaware of the potential of Jaks.

I m not here to hard sell Jaks but to invite the Sifus here to read and comment on my articles. This will help to improve the credibility of my articles and more importantly increase my confidence in Jaks.

Thank you.

All the smart sifus are here !

why you worried?

I believe many will include JAKS as its power plant will start operation in mid 2020

I have not seen JAKS yet.....

Every increase in foreign investment would increase demand for electricity

Direct investment flows from Hong Kong and mainland China to Vietnam increased by 3.9-fold and 2-fold year-on-year in the January – November period, respectively, amid escalation of the ongoing US – China trade tensions , a report of the Foreign Investment Agency (FIA) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment has shown.

The data shows that out of 117 countries and territories investing in Vietnam in the eleven-month period, Hong Kong (China) took the lead with US$6.69 billion. South Korea came second with US$5.73 billion, while the third place belonged to Singapore with US$4.47 billion.

Among 60 cities and provinces having received FDI between January and November, Hanoi has attracted the largest portion of capital commitments with over US$6.82 billion, accounting for 21.5% of total commitments in the period.

https://vietnamnet.vn/en/business/china-investment-in-vietnam-surges-amid-trade-war-592462.html

Just for information

冷眼.孙子战市-杂集

14. 捷碩（JAKS，4723，主板建築股）
-需要自己做功課和留意。
-從事水供業務。
-越南發電廠工程（80億令吉），獲得所有營運製造，與中國電力合作。將控制權交於中國電力，負責60億電力工程，但是獲得18億令吉的基礎設施建造合約。（生意手法不錯）。
-擁有3成股權，可增持至40%。
-一年營業額4億令吉，單是越南的發電工程已保證4年的營業額，但賺幅未知。
-在大馬獲得另外5億的合約。
-營業額可增加至7億至8億，可賺10多仙。

http://aliinvest.blogspot.com/2016/11/blog-post_7.html

------------------------------------------
lim900510 will cold eye buy into jaks?
27/12/2019 9:21 PM

Mong Duong II was operating at dismal utilisation rate. The tariff payments were majority made up of capacity charge with minimal energy charge from electricity sales. Operating at low utilisation rate require HFO as supplement fuel. This eroded profit margin as HFO is more expensive in term of heat value.

However, improvements were witnessed in 2019 as evidenced by the increase in dividend from US$88m to US$145m.

In any case, just use the 2016/2017 results as your base for calculation of worse case scenario.

If you are referring to Sslee's posting, yes, I saw the article.

Why I can't view the article?

----------------
deMusangking yes, i agree with kukuman TP = 3.00!!!!!!!!
https://klse.i3investorcom/blogs/JAKS%20-%20follow%20the%20facts/2017-...
27/12/2019 10:08 AM

I only have a single stock pick JAKS (100%). I m not qualified to contest.

------------------------
probability I really look forward for all the active i3 sifus recommendation for 2020, whether they underperform or performed well last year..does not matter.

All their ideas will be highly appreciated..

Icon sifu, yistock, tankw, john lu, paperplane, moneykj, updown, intelligent investor, otb, kchongz

Look forward for new participant as per below:

Vip: dk66, pjseow, sslee

Other elusive sifus:

3iii, stockraider, qqq3..kukuman n etc
26/12/2019 7:58 PM

leapkdfy,

Don't worry, so long as there are readers who think my sharing is sincere, i will continue to share. I m not concern about those who tried to discredit me. They can't provide credible arguments against my articles except picking on words like "amazing", "soon", "> 1 year" etc.

However, one thing I m clear; everyone is here because they are interested in Jaks except some want to buy cheap. Why would anyone not keen on Jaks and spent so much time here ?

-------------------------------
leapkcfy DK66, if u have any addition info about jaks hai duong power plant please share with us.. i really believe that now is the right timing.. as the timeframe of COD is near. Just need to wait patiently..

OTB u r very honest and a knowledgeable person. Just ignore those attackers..

Time will prove to us that jaks will make us tons of money. Have faith in our own pick..

Both of u r good sifu of jaks! Please ignore the attackers and continue to share ur views and knowledge about jaks here!

Sincerely thank you!
26/12/2019 10:26 PM

Dear Sslee, I deeply agree.

It is the true meaning of Karma. We must learn to think positively and reject the negative energy within us. There are many ways to gain wealth. I believe in shared prosperity through sharing. I reject gaining at the expense of others like inciting fears to buy cheap.

Thanks for sharing.

Just recently, I received emails from certain resourceful individuals who acknowledged my doing in I3investor and voluntarily provide useful information for my research work. I m especially thankful to these people.

If others who are media-shy but have information to share, please email to i3dk66@gmail.com. Your identity will not be disclosed.

Probability, you are welcome

Probability,

Yes, you are right. bypassing the turbine so that it will not be damaged by the debris that remained in the pipes during welding etc . A temporary piping is build to blow the steam outside the turbine room.

------------------
probability DK66, If i understand correctly, steam blowing means the boiler would be generating steam from the heat of the coal combustion and the steam produced is passed through its pathway from boiler steam outlet to the exhaust chimney - only bypassing the turbine to avoid generating power.

Is that your understanding too?

Company is arranging this event to explain the steam blowing which will be carried out over a week. Steam blow will cause huge noise and air pollution when large amount of steam were blown into the air.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDcEnSkrBlU

Steam blowing is scheduled to be carried out on 4th Jan 2020

Translation;

On December 18, in order to ensure the smooth progress of the next chemical cleaning and steam blowing work of Unit 1 of the Hai Duong Project in Vietnam, and to ensure that it complies with relevant environmental protection regulations, and to avoid surrounding villagers from misunderstanding the normal process of project construction, the company held an “Environmental Open Day” event. A total of more than 40 people from the party committee of the city, government officials, and representatives of surrounding villagers participated in the event.

12月18日，为保证越南海阳项目1号机组下一步酸洗、吹管工作的顺利推进，确保其符合环境保护相关规定，避免周边村民对项目建设正常工序产生误解，公司总承包的越南海阳2×60万千瓦燃煤电厂工程项目部举行了“环境开放日”活动。来自项目所在地光城乡党委、政府有关人员，以及周边村民代表共40余人参加了活动。

　　相关人员在项目建设现场进行了实地参观。座谈会上，项目部安质环部介绍了项目各建设阶段环境保护工作的实际开展情况，并针对其中水、噪音、空气等重要环境关切点进行了详细讲解。同时，对村民代表提出的问题进行了释疑，加深了其对电厂环境保护具体情况的认识，消除了相关疑虑。

　　本次活动拉近了越南海阳总承包项目部与当地乡党委、乡政府、周边村民的距离，增进了大家对项目建设及环保措施的了解和信任，搭建了良好的沟通交流平台，为项目建设的顺利推进提供了有利条件。

I googled on "How to Deal With Negative People Who Just Aren't Going Away" and found some useful tips;

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Negative people love bringing others down. It can sometimes seem like that’s the only thing they enjoy doing. So what should you do when faced with a negative friend, co-worker, family member or colleague? At first you listen, offering a compassionate ear and hoping their negativity is just a passing phase. After all, everyone has a bad day now and again.

But if you’re dealing with a habitually pessimistic person, you're at risk of being drained emotionally. Negativity can be contagious, and if you don’t take action to protect your mindset, you may find your mood infected with hostility.

You can shield yourself from their hostility using some simple strategies.

1. Don’t buy into their negativity.
Don’t allow yourself to become infected with toxic negativity. Do not engage in a difficult person’s habitual skepticism. Whatever you do, don’t stoop to their level. Maintain your emotional distance. This doesn’t mean ignoring them. Nor should you try to bright-side everything. Trying to convince someone to stop being negative may only challenge to them to amp up their hostility.

A difficult person is probably locked into a negative mindset that is part of the fabric of his or her personality. Negative people often have a demanding nature and put pressure on those close to them. They want others to love and respect them, to “be there for them,” yet they are incapable of offering emotional support to others.

2. You are not their problem solver.
It is not your job to make an unhappy person happy. If you set out change a person overnight, you will fall short and may end up feeling disgruntled yourself. The only person whose happiness you can control is your own. You can (and should) remain positive when dealing with negative people, but don’t fool yourself into thinking you can cheer them up or change their mindset.

Ultimately, the best way to protect yourself emotionally from a negative person is to be secure and confident. Don't let a negative person cause you to doubt your abilities or undermine your desire to pursue your dreams.

3. Give yourself a break.
Setting boundaries is how you give yourself a break from an encroaching negative person. You need space where you can clear your head after dealing with someone who zaps you emotionally. Keep the a negative person at arm’s length to avoid being overwhelmed by their toxicity."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

pjseow, I think you are right

Kukuman, do you think I m sincere or NOT ?

Dear OTB,

How I wish I3investor can be a better place. I thought of being nice here so that I will be well treated too.

---------------------
OTB Dear DK66,

You are too nice to them, they bully you.
Thank you.
25/12/2019 3:01 PM

pjseow, he is trying to discredit me but pretend to be impartial. I have written so many articles. instead of personal attack, isn't finding faults in my article the best way to expose me ? What is the relevance of my own investment here...... stuck ?? ( My average is 0.70). Wrong calls ??

-----------------
pjseow Kukuman, did you.buy Jaks ? At what price you bought?Why are you so hostile to DK 66? Did you get burned inJAKS because you bought JAKS at the peak? DK has been very kind and generous to share his knowledge and experience . Instead of making fair remarks , you picked on him. Pls.share your investment experience so that we can make our comments too.
25/12/2019 1:27 PM

Those who think I m not sincere, be brave and be a man to make a statement now. No need to beat around the bush trying to be sarcastic. No need to say that I m honest but.....

VIN3133, I agree with OTB and you.

The focus on Jaks will soon shift to its earnings potential from its vietnam power plant. Debates on the future earnings will intensify.

The construction and completion risks of the power plant is negligible now. Once the power plant gone thru current performance tests, It is a matter of waiting for COD.

Merry X'mas to all !

Some have questioned why I m not buying at current price.

I bought Jaks as high as 1.40 more than 2 years ago even when the power plant has only started to lay foundations and I continued to average down when the price dropped to 0.405.

It seems that I bought too early at 1.40. However, if I had no confidence to buy then would I have the confidence to average down ? I used up my investment funds to buy the final portion at 0.43 and I couldn't buy anymore when I saw the price at 0.405.

I advised readers to buy when the price was below 0.50 and 0.80. Some did and I presumed many didn't. I m not surprised because even Sslee was hesitating and deterred by poor management records. Only until OTB advised his followers to take positions in Jaks around 0.82, the interest in Jaks started to show up and the price shot up to 1.43. Many would think this is momentary impulse and fail to see that it is due to the power plant going online soon.

Sslee was worried that I made readers chase high, so I promised him that would be my last call below 0.80. I made a strong statement then; "Either you buy now or you don't buy at all". I intend to keep that promise. I won't make anymore buy calls but I will update my target price when new information unfold.

Therefore, you have to seek advice from other sifus or your remisiers on your decisions.

For your information, Sslee has just included Jaks in his picks for 2020. I m glad that he is finally convinced and I believe he will share his research on Jaks.

Thank you

Some have questioned why I m not buying at current price.

I bought Jaks as high as 1.40 more than 2 years ago even when the power plant has only started to lay foundations and I continued to average down when the price dropped to 0.405.

It seems that I bought too early at 1.40. However, if I had no confidence to buy then would I have the confidence to average down ? I used up my investment funds to buy the final portion at 0.43 and I couldn't buy anymore when I saw the price at 0.405.

I advised readers to buy when the price was below 0.50 and 0.80. Some did and I presumed many didn't. I m not surprised because even Sslee was hesitating and deterred by poor management records. Only until OTB advised his followers to take positions in Jaks around 0.82, the interest in Jaks started to show up and the price shot up to 1.43. Many would think this is momentary impulse and fail to see that it is due to the power plant going online soon.

Sslee was worried that I made readers chase high, so I promised him that would be my last call below 0.80. I made a strong statement then; "Either you buy now or you don't buy at all". I intend to keep that promise. I won't make anymore buy calls but I will update my target price when new information unfold.

Therefore, you have to seek advice from other sifus or your remisiers on your decisions.

For your information, Sslee has just included Jaks in his picks for 2020. I m glad that he is finally convinced and I believe he will share his research on Jaks.

Thank you

FutureEyes, you are welcome.

Steam blow test is an important procedure marking the commencement of final performance testings of power unit before COD.

OTB,

Based on construction progress of Vinh Tan 1,

April is optimistic

Most likely May/June 2020

--------------------
OTB DK66,
Still the same question,
Can Hai Duong power plant produces and sells electricity earlier than Apr/May 2020 ?
Please advise.
Thank you.
24/12/2019 11:22 PM

Planned to carry out Steam blow test on 4th January

12月20日下午，中国能建在越南单笔投资最大项目越南海阳电厂一期工程启动锅炉储油罐进油45吨，标志着一期工程启动锅炉系统已具备投运条件。
　　自9月以来，越南海阳多雨天气减少，项目部抓住施工有利时机，除周六外每天下午连班到当时间晚上7点，使土建、安装工作全面提速。启动锅炉、燃油泵房及重油罐区域是全厂公用系统，事关机组调试工作，必须提前投运。项目部组织精兵强将仅用一个半月时间就完成了启动锅炉安装，同时加快燃油泵房及重油罐的土建和安装，采取穿插作业、同步作业等施工方式，使主体安装与地坪、排水和外部围墙同步推进。
　　目前，1号机组辅汽吹扫、1-1炉低温烘炉等调试工作已完成，正在准备进行1-2炉低温烘炉及锅炉冷态通风试验等调试工作，同时同步推进尾工安装进度。启动油罐进油，为下月4日锅炉开始点火冲管创造了有利的安全条件。

Dear all,

Thank you for all the supports and compliments. I m not as great as you think. I m just hardworking for my own good. I shared my works hoping that many can benefit as well.

I m not absolutely certain how much Jaks hai duong power plant will earn in future upon commercial operation. I gathered as much information as I can and analyse the information as logical as possible. I shared my research with analysis supported by evidences and I provided Links to my independent sources of information.

I laid out my analysis with explanation so that everyone can reason for themselves whether my logic is reasonable and acceptable. I have answered to all queries without fail.

I must admit it is extremely difficult to forecast the future earnings of the power plant with high degree of certainty as you can see my evaluations often showed high degree of variations. I often found myself encountering conflicting derivations. As more information unfold, you may find surprising revelations. I will continue to search and share new information whether good or bad so that we can make adjustment to our investment plans.

Therefore, it is important that you make early decision to take advantage of higher safety margin when the price is low. Just take the worst case scenario to determine the safest entry price. Plan a cut loss strategy so that you can minimise your losses.

In short, I do not have the right answer. I merely tried to derive the answer.

My estimates are only as good as the information I gathered.

I hope I m making my position clear.

Thank you and Happy Holidays !

DK66

Dear all,

Thank you for all the supports and compliments. I m not as great as you think. I m just hardworking for my own good. I shared my works hoping that many can benefit as well.

I m not absolutely certain how much Jaks hai duong power plant will earn in future upon commercial operation. I gathered as much information as I can and analyse the information as logical as possible. I shared my research with analysis supported by evidences and I provided Links to my independent sources of information.

I laid out my analysis with explanation so that everyone can reason for themselves whether my logic is reasonable and acceptable. I have answered to all queries without fail.

I must admit it is extremely difficult to forecast the future earnings of the power plant with high degree of certainty as you can see my evaluations often showed high degree of variations. I often found myself encountering conflicting derivations. As more information unfold, you may find surprising revelations. I will continue to search and share new information whether good or bad so that we can make adjustment to our investment plans.

Therefore, it is important that you make early decision to take advantage of higher safety margin when the price is low. Just take the worst case scenario to determine the safest entry price. Plan a cut loss strategy so that you can minimise your losses.

In short, I do not have the right answer. I merely tried to derive the answer.

My estimates are only as good as the information I gathered.

I hope I m making my position clear.

Thank you and Happy Holidays !

DK66

CT, Thanks

i3dk66@gmail.com

Newbiesi3, this isn't what you wanted ?

------------------------------------------
DK66 Newbiesi3,

Hng33 is right in so far as the anticipated slow down in progress billings on its vietnam EPC jobs. Total billings as at 30th Sept stood at around 74%.

Just a very logical estimation of progress billings for the next 5 quarters will be 7%,6%,5%,4%and 4% resulting in profit from vietnam of around RM31m, RM26m, RM22m, RM18m, and RM18m for the next 5 qtrs respectively.

So far, losses from property attributable to Jaks is around 8m to 10m per quarter. Assuming pacific star is completed by Q1 2020 and property operating loss attributable to Jaks reduced to 3m per quarter , the projected profit for the next 5 quarters would be around RM22m, RM15m, RM19m, RM15m, RM15m.

Note that the projection did not take into consideration profit from commercial operation of power plant in Vietnam which will start to contribute from Q3 2020 onwards.
23/12/2019 2:36 PM

---------------------------------
Newbiesi3 Hi DK66, can you please share the revenue of JAKS that you estimate for next quarter, for the entire company.
24/12/2019 9:39 AM

Only sharing of profit and income distribution will be reflected in Jaks books.

shareinvestor88

Equity method will be used to account for its associate in vietnam.

CT, Thanks for sharing your view.

Do you have access to the information on the 30% Posco profit sharing from Mong Duong II ?

---------------------------
I made reference to sharing of Posco 30% profit for AES-VCM Mong Duong Power Company Limited account.

leapkcfy, you are welcome and thank you

Yes, that is why I always answer to questions raised by Sslee.
-----------------------
dailyklse2010 Now i think Sslee opposing view is more better and high standard then alot of others. Some is to opose for oposed. The question asking is so far-fetched.
23/12/2019 11:07 PM

Kukuman, It is your hostile approach that puts me off. If only you can be more polite and friendlier, I would gladly answer to your questions regardless of how stupid they are.

You have to take people feelings into consideration. Even if you are right, there is no need to look down on people.

Noted, TanDavid88

I believe both Mong DUong II and Vinh Tan 1 have achieved optimal production. Therefore, their 2019 results to be released will paint a more realistic picture of the true potential of Jaks Hai Duong power plant. Judging from preliminary indications, I think and I hope I would be able to substantiate my estimate of between RM300m to RM500m earnings to Jaks when the full year results of Mong Duong II and Vinh Tan1 are released in 2020. Until then, please work with the lowered earning estimates derived in my previous articles.

Thank You.

Thank you, RainT