TQ, travestor

How is Jaks' technical views ?

As I have promised not to blog too often. So, I am making a copy of this and will answer when the price hit RM1.00.

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newbie8080 @ deMusangking

Mark my words, even at half of 800 cent is already hard to achieve.

My opinion on DK66 computation for his TP between rm6 to rm10 is based on perfect conditions such as :
1.40% ownership which currently not materialise yet a
2. Assuming zero delays
3. Zero cost escalation(in capex & opex) in next 25 years
4. No changes in government(incl policies)in the next 25 years
5. Forex remains unchanged for next 25 years(@RM 4.15:1USD)
6. No financial difficulty in loan servicing on the USD1.4 bil for both Jaks and CPECC.
7. Assuming interest rate at 6% for the next 25 years.
8. Assuming no financial crisis in Vietnam that impacts on demand of electricity despite the "guarantee of payment".
9. No financial criminal in the collaboration eg: fraud or scandals in the 25 years journey.
10. Assuming no changes in State Bank of Vietnam(Central Bank) policies on funds repatriation, capital control and money outflows. Able to repatriate the earnings back to Msia in the next 25 years without hiccups.
Remember China's recent restriction.

My first 2 articles has more than 3500+ hits.

It shows that retailers were more interested when Jaks was 0.4 - 0.5.


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newbie8080 @ DK66

It's quite a good hit nevertheless.

Sarifah, you think I should stop commenting for a while ?

Actually, I blogged more often recently as I was hoping to stop the retailers from selling too early. Fund managers are more informed and are more capable of doing their own analysis and begin to buy when others are still in doubt.


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SarifahSelinder Maybe blog too often u leave nothing to imagination

Mcm can't buy on rumours sell on fact cos u leave the cat out too soon

But in the first place target audience u bkn retailers kan
19/03/2019 17:35

As i have always suspected..... price up after reporting a poor Q4 results. Most retailers would sell on rally. Who took the opportunity to buy out the retailers ??

It seems like most retailers have taken profit. Now waiting for the price to come down.

1200+

No need to get too excited. There isn't many retail investors on this counter. I m judging from the low attention I get on my latest article "Jaks Resources - A new chapter ?". I was expecting a much higher number of clips given the upward momentum on this counter now. Need to wait.....

Welcome, Sillypan

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sillypan Thanks DK66, am decided to join you in Jaks.

Dear Sslee,

Although we differ in views, thank you for your comments.

Anyway, I must stress that non-academic rationales are not to be taken as fundamental analysis.

I only brought this up as a matter of interests. It will not affect my fundamental judgement on Jaks.

Think seriously .....

All the articles I mentioned above in one way or another implied a few points;

1. fight for control and eliminate intruder
2. suppressing share price to cause margin calls
3. manipulated results to benefit from under-subscription of warrants
4. Suppressing share price to give free RSP to directors

There were a lot of fights and manipulations, for what ??

You only fight for gold mines not shit holes.

Under normal circumstances, all directors want to maintain their share prices as high as possible for the following reasons;

1. higher status
2. fence off hostile takeovers
3. financing requirements
4. higher sale value for share disposal by insiders

Even share prices of sub-standard stocks are kept high for higher sale value by insiders.

Of course, there are times when share prices are kept depressed for the following reasons;

1. privatisation by major shareholders
2. enable the controlling shareholders to increase their holdings at low prices
3. The stock is a shit hole and the insiders are continuously selling

Unless Jaks is good-for-nothing, the non-academic speculations on the great fall in jaks' price may have spoken the truth.

Some of the articles suggested "mission accomplished" implying imminent turnaround in share price which indeed happened recently.

CEO, Andy Ang, has increased his effective shareholding to 14.5% from 9% during this period.

Judge for yourself.

Thank you for your opinion, Sslee.

I believe a lot of readers probably share your concern about doing businesses in Vietnam.

Sovereign risk is always the biggest concern when investing in another country. That is why you need to have enforceable contracts to protect your investments. Jaks Hai Duong Power signed several agreements including a government guarantee for its RM8b power plant project in Hai Duong Province. The 3 chinese bankers has obtained approval from the Chinese government to finance the project under the 1B1R initiative. Some will say "so What, look at mudajaya".

US and China are probably the only 2 countries in the world that the Vietnam government will bow to. I m sure you are aware of the following incident.

"HANOI/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Vietnam has halted an oil drilling project in the “Red Emperor” block off its southeastern coast licensed to Spanish energy firm Repsol following pressure from China, three sources with direct knowledge of the situation told Reuters on Friday."

Hence, given china's influence on vietnam, I believe the vietnam government will honor its BOT contracts on the Hai Duong power plant project.

So, maybe it is worth your effort to take a second and deeper look into Jaks if you believe there is excessive profit from the vietnam IPP.

Vietnam needs power and willing to pay and China can deliver. This is bilateral trade, not free lunch.

Dear Sslee,

Would you like to share your opinion on the potential of the vietnam ipp ?

Dear Sslee,

You are welcome and feel free to make comments, for or against, to my articles even if i didn't make reference to any of your articles.

No worries.

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Sslee Dear DK66,
I do not hold any JAKS share and I am not against anyone interest. I only speak the truth as a response to your article citing my previous blog article: JAKS “The Conspiracy Theory” Part (II)

Good suggestion

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Icon8888 Print this out and frame it

Hang it on the wall, Pass it to your Son

Charlie Munger's Big Lesson: Prepare for Opportunity

What is the most important personal quality an investor can have?

Patience... followed by pretty aggressive conduct. It is given to human beings who work hard at it—who look and sift the world for a mispriced bet — that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don’t. It’s just that simple.

Dear Sslee,

"The next question is why KYY sold all?
Mr. Koon always mentioned he does not read the financial report or care about the detail but did you know he has a full time Chartered Accountant and a former Auditor as his Personal Assistant? There is more than meets the eye as of why he sold all, margin call? "

Does it mean that his accountant could have advised him on the following article ?

JAKS - My Advice - Koon Yew Yin
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/185968.jsp

"As you know the company has a lot of unsold properties and under the current depressed market condition, it will not be able to sell its properties. Moreover, Star’s legal claim for non performance and late completion has not been settled.

As a result, interest charges will be amounting in the next few years. The company cannot hide its losses anymore and it has already reported losses in the latest quarter.

It can only report losses in the next few years.

Why should you buy when the company cannot report any profit?"


Icon8888 has responded to his article as below;

Jaks Resources (8) - Uncle Koon's Information Inaccurate
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/186385.jsp

"Based on the above information, my understanding is that the Group no longer has much exposure to the depressed local property industry, apart from losses related to operation of Evolve Concept Mall at approximately RM30 mil per annum and Pacific Star LADs, which should end by mid 2019 following completion of the project. Jaks has 50% exposure to these two items."

Please read their full articles.

Dear Sslee,

Thank you for your comment.

I would like to point out that Jaks still reported a full year profit of RM15m inclusive of the RM50m losses from BG.

Without the RM50m BS losses, it would have been a profit RM13m in Q4 2018 and much higher on a full year basis.

Pin pointing losses from property division as a gauge of Jaks' fundamentals is highly debatable. I would prefer to judge on its overall performance.

"Capital contribution contracted but not provided for in respect of shares subscription in JAKS Pacific Power Limited, joint venture of the Group amounted to approximately USD92.14 million or RM381.3 million, using exchange rate of USD1 : RM4.1385. So this accounting profit (no real cash inflow) from Vietnam EPC construction works still has a very long way to settle shares subscription in JAKS Pacific Power Limited RM 381.3 million." - I don't see this a problem.

Jaks has unbilled sales of RM154m from the pacific star project which will add to its coffer. More will be collected upon completion. It is premature to draw a conclusion on its cash flows.

Anyway, your comment will be appreciated by readers here. It provides them an alternative view. TQ

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/198170.jsp

I will tell Mr koon that he was right about the vietnam IPP since the first day he invested in Jaks.

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SarifahSelinder DK66

Klau Koon says he is goin to invest RM 50m into Jaks and he asks u "DK66 Is Jaks a good company to invest in?" berani u look into his eyes and jawab "Yes Jaks is a good company to invest in" ?
16/03/2019 21:58

Yee Mimi,

You must understand Jaks' potential to make your own decision. It is too dangerous to trust anyone in i3.

You may like to read the following articles.

1. Understanding Jaks Hai Duong thermal power plant in Vietnam https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/189891.jsp

2. Jaks Resources - My Opinion
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/192780.jsp

3. Jaks Resources in 2019
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/196652.jsp

4. (Icon) Jaks Resources (7) - Jaks WB Is My 2019 Sailang Stock
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/185277.jsp

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Yee Mimi Jaks 会好的吗，这个时候买回太贵吗

High return draws private equity investments to Vietnam

http://www.hanoitimes.vn/investment/2018/08/81e0cb52/high-return-draws-private-equity-investments-to-vietnam/

Well, these people already left this forum. Can't bear to see you laughing to the bank.

Currant warrant's price is indicating a mother price of at least RM1.16 (0.52+0.64)

越南海阳：石灰石破碎站深基坑土方正式开挖

http://www.aepc1.ceec.net.cn/art/2019/3/14/art_14630_1853373.html

An old house was demolished as there is gold beneath it. Someone mined the gold and now planning to turn it into sunway lagoon theme park. Now offering a meager price to buy over the land. Those unsheltered by the demolition, now eager to sell out for a piece of bread. DON'T SELL. At least ask for a life time unlimited access to the theme park so you can enjoy for life ! Just for laugh :)

Yes to all your questions

May I suggest you go thru my article "Understanding Jaks Hai Duong thermal power plant in Vietnam" for better understanding.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/189891.jsp


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newbie8080 @ DK66

Does Jaks incur debt financing for the power plant?
Does your figures factor in the interest & principal servicing?
I recalled the consortium took 75% debt financing.

Just a matter of time ....

Now doubled in price

Yes, Icon8888 did a good and brave call to sailang the warrants

Jaks has yet to subscribe for the optional 10% at cost. It has up to 3 years after the COD to do so.

Ricky Kiat, Thanks for the information

How do you get RM2.6/share ?

This is another strong evidence that Jaks will be immediately profitable upon operation.

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TST1234 The No. 2 unit of the first phase BOT project of Vinh Tan Coal-fired Power Plant successfully completed 100 days of continuous safe operation after commissioning.

It is understood that the No. 2 unit of Vinh Tan Project has been running continuously under high load since it was put into operation on November 27, 2018. As of March 5, 2019, the total power generation was 1.358 billion kWh and the load rate was 95.38%. Created a new record of safe operation since the project was put into production.

The above is the translation for the link below :-

http://chinapower.com.cn/dwzhxw/20190312/1269010.html

TST1234, thanks for the info. Wow, PLF at 95.38% !! Vietnam is really desperate for electricity.

There is no need to exercise unless there is a big discount which provides an arbitrage opportunity.

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newbie8080 @ DK66

When is best time to exercise them in view that the expiry date is still far away?
As it is not necessary to wait till it expires.

It was Jaks sharing the pie with China GLC, no the other way round.

edkfc,

Yes , My TP is very high.

I have made a conservative forecast of RM300m to RM500m profit from the vietnam power plant, and more if the power plant is operating at more than 80% PLF which is quite likely given the severe shortage of power in vietnam. Power generation business can easily command between 10 - 15x PE.

So, yes, my TP is jaw-dropping between RM7 - RM10 which is likely to materialise in 2022 after it reports a full year operating results from vietnam IPP. The power plant will be fully operational by end of 2020.

I have written 3 articles and made hundred of comments on Jaks. Hope you will be able to find some answers there.

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edkfc Yes DK66....thats a most likely event, smart money is moving in ! Btw whats your take on TP ? Its good to share and if v high can provide your reasons too. Tks

KLCI dropped 43 points from 1707 to 1664 in March so far. However, during this period, Jaks' share price increased 0.20 from 0.56 to 0.76 over the same period with above average daily volume.

Why is Jaks up against the market sentiment especially after posting a big loss in the latest quarterly results ? Most retail investors have probably taken the opportunity to sell out for safety. Others are likely to stay put wait and see.

So, who were buying ?

1. Smart investors
2. Institutional investors
3. Fund managers
4. Private equity funds
5. Insiders

More Importantly, why did they buy ? These investors are intelligent. They are able to forecast future earnings. Now the worst is behind Jaks. It is not difficult to see a good 12 months profits for Jaks in 2019. While the retail investors are hesitating, this is the best time for them to take advantage of current low prices to load up their holdings.

The volume of Jaks' shares transacted during this period were very big, a sign that big players have set sight on the stock.

Sorry, I don't understand.

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newbie8080 @ DK66

Market capitalisation looks more appropriate in view of the frequent corporate exercise that will inflate the no of shares.

icon8888 and I did. Why ?

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newbie8080 By the way, anyone here subscribe to the previous rights warrant?

so far icon8888 has the highest TP of RM4.00.

I dare not mention as people will laugh at my TP

Icon8888, you are not going bankrupt, you are laughing to the BANK !

Eventually .................. Everything has been accomplished, nothing to hold it back now.

These pending events may or may not happen in 2019.

1. The solar power investment in Vietnam

Malaysia’s Jaks Resources Bhd. and China Power Engineering Consulting Group Co., Ltd., that are building a 1,200 megawatt (MW), $1.87-billion coal-fired power plant in the northern province of Hai Duong, are seeking more power projects in other provinces in Vietnam, with a focus on the renewable energy segment.

Renewable energy is still in its infancy in Vietnam, due to its high costs and weather conditions in certain areas that are not conducive to wind and solar power generation.

“Aligning with our strategy, we will grow our power portfolio in Vietnam with a view to participating in the recent renewable energy drive in the country,” said Elaine Tai, general manager of Corporate Strategy at Jaks Resources.

In a recent visit to the southern province of Binh Phuoc, Haris F. Abdullah, representative of Jaks Resources in Vietnam, said that the firm plans to invest in a solar power project with the capacity of 200MW and total investment capital of $262.5 million, on an area of 240 hectares. The project would be divided into two phases, with the first phase boasting a capacity of 50MW and investment of $87.5 million, and covering 80ha.

Jaks Resources said it could develop upcoming projects in Vietnam alone or by forming a joint venture, depending on the size of the investment.

https://www.vir.com.vn/power-players-eye-renewable-energy-58820.html

2. Disposal of Evolve Mall

On the proposed sale of its 51% stake in Evolve Concept Mall at Ara Damansara, Selangor, Ang said the group is still set on selling, but acknowledges that things have been tough in the commercial property market.

“The market [for commercial properties] has been tough. However we have seen improvement in the tenancy [rate] of the mall, which is currently at 60% [occupancy],” he said.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/jaks-looks-renewable-energy-new...

These events will drive earnings growth and improve company's cash flow and halt losses from property division.

http://www.aepc1.ceec.net.cn/art/2019/3/10/art_14630_1850112.html