9% per annum total returns over next 5 years is nothing to scoff at.
KLCI returns past 5 years is negative.
Compare to that, that's around 10% per annum outperformance, although we compare 2 different periods and strictly not comparable.
It should also beat EPF.
However, in Malaysia and in stock market, anything can happen, and one stock ownership is extremely dangerous. Hence, diversify to as a protection of our ignorance - we will never know everything about 1 company ever, even with the most transparent reporting, which Malaysia doesn't quite rank highly globally.

A longer term view on MAYBANK is their long term business growth / return on capital.
My gut feel is the business is still good for around 9% p.a. returns over the next, where roughly 6%-6.5% comes from Dividend Yield and 2.5%-3% comes from Price gains. And the current price since Covid lows in 2020 gives better than average chances to earn substantially higher than 3% p.a. price gains sometime over the next 5 years.

Past 3 years was great opportunity for Investors to accumulate MAYBANK, to earn returns that significantly beat EPF average returns of 5.5-6% p.a. over next 5 years or so.

A fourth view is to compare the position 5 years ago, FYE2018 Actual vs FYE2023 Estimate.
FYE2018 NTA ~ 6.8.
FYE2023 NTA ~ 7.6.
NTA has grown by ~ 2% p.a. whereas their long term DPS growth ~ 1% p.a.
So, there's some room, to share more of their retained wealth over the past 5 years with shareholders via higher DPS.

I can accept 30 sen, but I'm cautiously hoping for more than 30 sen and nearer to 35 sen :-). Haha

If EPS is a record high, then, very good odds for DPS to follow.
9m/23 EPS = 57.75 sen
9m/22 EPS = 50.96 sen.
So, looks like almost certainty that FYE2023 EPS should beat FYE2022.
So, I'm expecting total DPS to exceed 59 sen this year, flooring at 30 sen this quarter.

A second view is if MAYBANK adopts 80% dividend payout, and if FYE2023 ends in 76 sen or higher, then expected DPS is 61 sen. They already paid 29 sen, leaving 32 sen to come. 32 sen is 2 sen higher than same time last year of 30 sen.

A third view is back in 2019, MAYBANK EPS was 73 sen only and they are generous to pay out 64 sen (more than 80% payout). If they make 64 sen, then, they can declare 35 sen for last quarter, based on 2019 practice.

In short, I would guess 80% chance, the DPS will come in between 30-35 sen, which should be higher than 29 sen declared last year.

It's about time.

To paraphrase Buffet's advise to investors:
1. When you buy, don't count on a good selling price.
2. Rely instead on a purchase price so attractive, that even a mediocre sale price gives good results.
This applies to average or better quality business.
Because if the business economics is terrible, then, even a rock bottom price is too much to pay, if its value is deteriorating and more lower prices are coming.

Whether socks, or stocks, buy Quality stocks when it is marked down.

@Dicky, it depends on your own investment objective, which can be different than others.

TENAGA is slower stock, but can still meet someone's conservative objective. E.g. I own TENAGA because I'm aiming for 6%-9% per annum returns from TENAGA.

When I bought TENAGA around RM8-9 averaging 8.34, my goal was to get something like 5% Dividend Yield + 4% Price gain yield.

At the time, long term DPS estimate was around 40-44, giving nearly 5% dividend yield, plus minus.
So, to me, it's whether TENAGA can give me a 4% per annum price gains.

It's a no brainer that the more it is marked down, the greater the odds of this happening. E.g. if you could enter at say RM8.5 and if in 5 years time, you think you can get RM10.5 (or roughly 20% gain say), then, that's your 4% price gain per annum if one takes a 5 year view.

It's almost a sure thing that within 5 years when price was RM8.5, one day, it will get to RM10.5. With the 5% Dividend Yield, you get paid whilst waiting.

TENAGA is not a top quality stock - e.g. its DPS is volatile. But its EPS is "assured" and it has pricing power (i.e. if profits starts to decline, theoretically it has pricing power although whether it can price higher is also subject to political risk). Also, long term chart showed RM8.5 is lowish - its all time high is like RM16+, so, RM10.5 has ample Margin of Safety.

So, when TENAGA price fell below RM9, it was accumulation time. At RM10.5, it has already met my objective. But when something is rising, my exit will follow my technical outlook. Why not hold on as it continue to rise? And yes, my discipline will force me to take partial profits at higher prices, but I plan to hold a majority nevertheless as long term, we are still at the bottom half and foreigners haven't come back in a big way yet .

Haha .. Our electricity at home is a necessity indeed, and that view that dividends pay for electricity is interesting/funny. Dividends aside, TENAGA provides price gains too - e.g. my average cost is RM8.34. To me, total returns = Dividend yield + Price gains matters. With profits, we can use this to pay forward for many years electricity bills. Haha.

More Buffett wisdom, paraphrased by DividendGuy:
3. Focus on Quality and Value. Quality stocks grows EPS and DPS long term. Value comes from owning such stocks long term. Even greater Value comes when the rare opportunities come to let you buy Quality stocks at a lower Price.

Buffett wisdom:
1. The most important thing to do, when in a hole, is to stop digging.
2. In a chronically leaking boat like BAT, energy devoted to changing vessels are likely to be more productive than perpetually patching leaks.

Today's candle looks like a breakout, but less ideal due to longer upper wick than lower wick. RSI is also overbought. Just as to be mindful that there is potential bearish divergence pattern about to be formed if GENM cannot keep rising to cause RSI to be higher than 77 say. Half the time, it signals potential top and price falls. This signal is not yet formed. As it is uncertain, I took the liberty to lighten a little bit near 2.80, as it has grown to be a bit too big relative to my other positions. Slowly raising cash back again when market gives the opportunity. I don't mind earning a tad less if markets keep rising. Short term resistance should be 2.90 and 3, so, I'll queue to take profits a little bit more there and still hold majority past 3, but that's just the base case plan. Plan B depends if that bearish divergence pattern emerges, if so, I hope there's a chance to lighten a bit more there, so that when price falls, I'll be able to pick it back up again. This Plan B might never emerge, but just stay ready.

Hi moba,
It was just an illustration. I don't have a fixed approach to decide entry or exit. It's a combination of fundamental, technical, other and ideally, it should be "obvious" to me that it's time to enter and relatively "obvious" to me that it's time to lighten. I only trade/invest in stocks that are fundamentally sound, and where technical supports, considering market past and outlook and sometimes sector past and outlook (depending). For some sound stocks, strong dose of courage to average down, for losing stocks, courage not to average down. :-) As for timing entries and lightening exits, to be honest, I rely on charts more.

Fuiyoh! HEIM + 42 sen. KLCI closed green, hope most investors make record profits. Thanks to HEIM, GENM, MI, MAYBANK and 24 other green stocks to offset 6 reds, my portfolio made new all time high again today. What a great start to 2024 after a very strong 2023!

GENM closed 2.80, +6 sen. KLCI closed green, hope everyone is making record profits today. Thanks to GENM, MI, MAYBANK and 25 other green stocks to offset 6 red losses, my portfolio made new all time highs again today. What a great start to 2024 after a strong 2023!

MI closed 1.88, + 7 sen. Nice. KLCI also closed green today, hopefully, everyone making record profits. Thank-you MI together with MAYBANK and 26 other green stocks to offset 6 reds to bring my portfolio to new all time highs again today. What a great start to 2024 after a very strong 2023!

KLCI green again, and hopefully most investors sees record level profits. Thank-you MAYBANK for edging higher, together with 27 other green stocks to offset 6 red ones today to bring my portfolio to new all time high again today, after yesterday's all time high. This month, the portfolio has made 3 new highs. Thank you Mr Market.

Perfect entry is unnecessary. Warren Buffett has the courage to buy when value is compelling. For MAYBANK, that's when price is lower and DY is higher.

Consider avoiding BAT, or sell at price spikes (even at a loss).
Fwiw, since I got rid of BAT in Sep last year, my portfolio has been freed from this drag - and it went on to make new all time highs 17 times without the BAT drag, including today.

Whereas if one keeps averaging down on this loser, if this counter still doesn't run, or keeps declining like what it has been doing for the past decade, one might as well park that money into FD.

BAT is still downtrending longer term. The longer you hold, the greater the odds of losing, even if it doesn't crash - it creeps down after false spikes. The monies tied up in BAT are better deployed elsewhere (including EPF or even FD over past 10 years).

Hence, with good long term dividend yield stocks like MAYBANK, you must have courage to buy more when its price is lower. And diversify into as many stocks as you can but you have to watch your position sizing too. The biggest risk when buying what you think is good quality stocks is one day, that one "good" stock turns out to be a dud. Then, your courage to buy more at lower prices will kill you. Therefore, your only control is diversification and position sizing. The strategy is a simple one, but 99% of "investors" cannot execute consistently long term. They just don't have the discipline, the commitment and the belief to execute consistently over long term.

Price and dividend yield are never constant in the stock market.
With MAYBANK, this is a stock that should be bought/added when its price is low.
A low price has 2 benefits - first, the LT dividend yield is higher when price is low. Second, a low price also gives good chance for price gains too.

For example.
Scenario 1 - Average Buy Price = 8.8. DPS say 57 sen. DY = 6.48%.
Scenario 2 - Average Buy Price = 9.4. DPS same at 57 sen. DY = 6.06%.

Let say in 5 years time, price rise to RM10.
Scenario 1 - Price gain = 10 / 8.8 = 13.6% which if annualized over 5 years = 2.58% per annum gains.
So, Total returns = DY + Price gains = 6.48% + 2.58% = 9.07%.

Whereas Scenario 2 Price Gain = (10 / 9.4)^(1/5) = 1.25%.
So, Total Returns = 6.06% + 1.25% = 7.31%.

Now, 7.31% per annum, over 5 years is not a bad return.
But if you can buy when price is lower, even if just by a little bit lower (like difference between 9.4 vs 8.8), then, your per annum returns over 5 years is nicer like 9.07%.

So, the key is to buy good earnings and good dividend stocks over the next 5, 10, 20 years when its price is depressed. That helps to juice up your yearly long term returns.

GENM closed 2.74. +1.86%. Thanks to GENM, MBMR, TENAGA, MAYBANK and 23 other stocks offsetting reds from 11 stocks, my portfolio made new all time high again today!

MBMR closed 4.30. +2.38%. Thanks to MBMR, TENAGA, MAYBANK and 24 other green stocks offsetting 11 red stocks, my portfolio made new all time high again today!

TENAGA closed 10.42. +3.58%. Thanks to TENAGA, MAYBANK and 26 other green stocks offsetting 11 red stocks, my portfolio made new all time high again today!

MAYBANK 9.03 close, +1.57%. Together with 27 other green stocks offsetting 11 red stocks, my portfolio made new all time high again today! Thank-you MAYBANK!

Fuiyoh! 1.31 close, higher than swing high in August of 1.30.

Fuiyoh! So nice. 1.45 close, higher than swing high of 1.43 a week ago. Decent chance to close the gap at 1.56.

Today I topped up at 8.88 and 8.85.

Pity. This company is no longer the same company as it was 10-18 years ago.
Last annual report showed it only has 3 vessels left. Customer concentration risks are high.
Market cap is only RM305 million - a small company, no longer a shade of what it was 10-18 years ago.

Last Balance sheet showed 19+ sen cash. NTA 52 sen. Trading at 30.5 sen, so, undervalued by P/NTA basis and interesting.
However, business appears fairly valued (?). My estimate of 1 year EPS is around 1.2 sen. Excluding cash, the business is available for sale at 30.5 sen - 19 sen = 11.5 sen i.e. P/E of < 10, which is very fair for the future earnings from the 3 vessels.
Total cash is around 190 million + meaning they can't scale / grow their business in the future - if they use the entire 190 million to buy 2-3 vessels, that cash is gone.
If they pay out the 190 million + cash as dividends, market is going to drop down ex-div. We already seen that market is pricing fairly - on the last ex-div date, price fell 1.5 sen, exactly equal to the dividend paid out. At this juncture, this is now a penny stock with little upside / downside prospect.

It's not clear to me what happened to MAYBULK. I haven't monitored for over a decade and suddenly noticed this business is nothing like the business that it was 10-18 years ago. It looks to me this company is now ceasing / substantially reducing market's interest.

If you are a Book Value investor and are very patient, perhaps accumulating at low prices and hoping for a price spike to sell out may work out, but this can test even the most patient investors. Keep such plays a small % of one's capital.

For me, my rule is that the dividends must be funded by a % of earnings. If EPS is 1.2 sen and DPS is 1 sen, that's 3.3% of 30 sen price which is similar to FD rates and doesn't beat EPF, so, I'll pass. Sure, I'll grant that MAYBULK might use some of its cash to enhance the DPS to be larger than 1 sen, however, it will reduce its cash and limits its future ability to grow its fleets i.e. the more cash it distributes as dividends, the less chance it can grow its business in the future.

Just documenting my thoughts here for my own future reference to remind me to pass this trade.

Looks like resistance zone around 19.4-19.6 held the past 3-5 trading days. Hopefully, price will dip down to around 19+ to allow accumulation again.

LIIHEN + 2 sen today. Together with 22 other green stocks offsetting 11 red stocks and several unchanged, my portfolio has made new all time high again today. This is new all time highs for the 3rd time in December month alone.

So, I have disposed all of my AXIATA holdings that I bought 20 days ago at 2.32, to sell at 2.43, netting 11 sen. I don't like to trade by holding such a short term like 20 days - I prefer to hold for months / years, but in this case, as MAXIS was cheaper a few days ago, I disposed AXIATA to buy MAXIS.

Fwiw, this company's long term financial character has changed quite considerably, after Celcom operations discontinued last year. Over past 9 years, its EPS and DPS results are extremely volatile, if compared with say CDB or MAXIS. Honestly, relative to MAXIS, MAXIS has in my view the more optimal longer term earnings yield and dividend yield characteristics. As investors, its longer term EPS, DPS, and Price action matters and as investors we have a choice to invest in one or the other ... I own 40+ stocks and I don't want to over-diversify to own MAXIS, CDB and AXIATA and/or TM and if I have to choose one over these 4 counters for long term investment, based on historical results, MAXIS looks like the better choice to me from just the pure numbers perspective. I invest based on numbers and as they say ... numbers never lie.

Ah Beng is in a tight spot now.

With recent selling in December, and price crash, it will surely attract SEC attention.

And we know the 5 sen Special Dividend traditionally reserved for the coming Q4 is not sustainable anymore, when 9 months earnings is not even 5 sen, but 4.89 sen.

Special Dividends are not guaranteed.

But because Ah Beng sold, I bet he's going to try to still pay the 5 sen Dividend to avoid SEC scrutiny for insider trading. So, I think, notwitstanding its low earnings, I think more than 50% odds, ZHULIAN will still try to pay the 5 sen Special Dividends, to avoid SEC scrutiny for insider trading. And they will spin that their business model is still fine, cash still positive, nil debts, etc.

But this time, the price rally will not sustain - it will more likely show a lower low. In next 12 months, unlikely to exceed 1.8, unless there is a positive earnings surprise from a new business model or something similar.

But in the scenario for dividend maintenance (best case, 17 sen for 2023), after payment of this final special dividend, if ZHULIAN is responsible, it should start to flag out expectations for lower future dividends. If it doesn't call out these future expectations, then, you are dealing with shareholders who are not transparent.

IMHO, this process of regular selling by Ah Beng in December is a strategic mistake. It is possible (but no one really knows) if he panicked knowing the business keeps getting worse after 8 years.

Looks Ah Beng is forced to stop selling for a while as price has crashed.

But he still owns 48 million Direct + 231 million Indirect = 279 million total
Last round this month, he barely sold 1% of that and price crashed.
There is no way he can realize the remaining 99% at 1.6. More likely, it will be around 0.5 if he really wants to exit. Of course, he might just be selling the 1% to raise spending cash, and still hold the 99% but it doesn't bode well long term for this company, if selling 1% causes price to crash. He picked the wrong time to sell - he should have disposed much earlier like 10 years ago when its price was rising exponentially with high volume.

Wow, I was extremely lucky to have exited completely, before Ah Beng started selling off his shares.
I sold off at 1.90 at a small profit (due to dividends, but nothing on price gains).
Now trading at 1.62/1.63.
Is it worth to buy at 1.62?

The problem with ZHULIAN is that its earnings is still lower than the dividends paid out.
For 9 months ending Q3/23, total EPS is only 4.89 sen. Annualizing gives 6.5 sen. It pays out 3 sen dividend every quarter and final quarter is 8 sen (+ 5 sen Special Dividend) for a total of 17 sen.
The shortfall is 10.5 sen. Cost to ZHULIAN = 10.5 sen x 460m = RM48 million.

It's cash holdings has shrunk to RM161m. At this rate, in just 3+ years, all of its cash holdings will disappear if business remains status quo, to support dividends. It's cash holdings is only worth 35 sen, not RM1.62.

If it's business is able to generate 6 sen per annum, with risks of declining, noone would pay a P/E of more than 10 times in a declining EPS scenario. This declining business is worth 60 sen at the most.

Plus 35 sen cash gives 95 sen valuation. Hence, trading at RM1.62 looks expensive still, unless there is line of sight that its business is going to turn around.

Hence, everything depends on its business model.

The hard question is why did its EPS keep shrinking initially gradually every year and in 2023 appears to be accelerating in its fall?

2015: 12.5 sen
2016: 9.1 sen
2017: 11.5 sen
2018: 11.4 sen
2019: 10.8 sen
2020: 10.2 sen
2021: 9.9 sen
2022: 8.3 sen
2023E: 6.5 sen.

This decline is very persistent over past 8 years.

What has ZHULIAN management been doing the past 8 years?

Is this something in ZHULIAN's management powers to arrest the 8 years of EPS decline?

Recent price crash and recovery may not be the end of a longer term downtrend.

This morning, I trimmed my position slightly at 1.42, to sell of the portion I bought at 1.11. 31 sen gain in just a short time is to reduce risk, as it has become too large. Some selling is necessary, to allow price to dip, to form a base, before the next move.

Thanks to LCTITAN, my portfolio has made a new all time high again today.

Nice! 1.39 at lunch close. Greater volume, higher RSI highs suggest outlook on this stock may have changed. Looking closer at the chart, there's that gap early this year that's begging to be closed. That's around RM1.56.

My small position has now become my 2nd largest position after these 2 days move! If I didn't buy more MAYBANK today, it would have become my largest position after these 2 days move! Let's see how the price action goes till Chinese New Year.

If you are really interested in high dividend yields, my last advice here is to consider swapping BAT to MAYBANK.
Both have very high dividend yields, higher than EPF.
However, the comparisons ends there.

1. Price. MAYBANK is temporarily depressed in its price, as EPF and ASB have been disposing substantially in December, likely due to anticipation of paying dividends to EPF and ASB holders for FYE2023. Come January, these selling pressures are likely to stop.

2. I expect MAYBANK to make all time record Revenue and all time record PAT for FYE2023. Unlike BAT, this is not a stock with declining EPS or DPS.

If you can find another stock that matches or closely matches its EPS, DPS today, except one grows and the other shrinks, then, long term investors should take this one time opportunity to swap.

A random look at lsat 11 quarters EPS starting from Q1/21, Q2/21, ... to Q3/23.
What pattern do you see?

19.36 .. 16.81 .. 2.14 .. 8.2 .. 4.57 .. (6.41) .. (15.61) .. (13.93) .. (9.87) .. (13.76) .. (2.44).

Q1/23 looks hopeful when the loss went down from (13.93) to (9.87).
Q2/23 looks terrible, when the loss exploded from (9.87) to (13.76).
Q3/23 looks very hopeful, when the loss went down from (13.76) down to (2.44).

When a company financials improves, then, suddenly, the RM10 billlion spent into PPE gives hope and is no longer terrible. When financials deteriorated back in the earlier days and the company kept spending more and more on capital commitment, that's when the market fears the worst that this company is going to drive the business down to the ground. Of course, if the company survives, then, buying when fear is greatest will give the largest rewards. However, if the company did not survive, then, your investment would have gone down the drain together with the company. It was a massive risk taken by the company, hence, Mr Market penalizes this stock massively since 2017 listing.

LCTITAN capital commitment continues to shrink massively. At 31/12/22, it was 7.5 billion. At 30/9/23, it is now down to 3.4 billion, i.e. more than half has been spent. From capital perspective, we might be approaching the worst soon since there's clearly not enough cash i.e. LCTITAN will need more monies to complete its capital commitments, either by borrowings or raise capital (diluting shareholders) ... with this type of price action (if it gets to RM1.65 or above), market participants will be increasingly discounting the capital raising option and thinks LCTITAN can grow by borrowing more.

We'll have to wait and see.

Best thing to do when having a position is .. do nothing.

It is instructive to compare LCTITAN balance sheet at MRQ (30/9/23) vs say 31/12/20, before it embarks on LINE project. The difference in PPE is substantial - 5.1billion vs 14.9billion, or nearly 10 billion increase in PPE. Its cash holdings was pristine back at 31/12/20 - nearly 4 billion with zero borrowings. Today only 0.8 billion cash, with nearly 4 billion borrowings. With such massive increase in PPE of nearly RM10 billion, market penalizes LCTITAN over the past 2.75 years from RM3 down to RM1.2 say when its NAPS is steady around 5.19 to 5.23. When it price crashes, it was a DOOMSDAY scenario - a 2nd consecutive quarterly gross profit is going to convince more market participants that the earlier thought DOOMSDAY scenario might not happen and if so, there's going to be a strong reassessment of the billions invested in the LINE project. Under a normal scenario, 1 billion spent on PPE is going to valued by market by more than 1 billion, not 300 million worth i.e. this reassessment can really kick in a strong potential recovery if true ...

Looking at weekly charts since 2017 listing, it looks like LCTITAN is trying to put on a "round bottom", which if true suggests that 1.1 might be the low. Still too early to judge until it goes past RM1.65. Times like this is most uncertain and where the gains are also the largest if it really puts on the bottom.

Market must have been really pleased that last quarter showed first gross profit. My guess is someone must have shown a forecast of a second consecutive quarterly gross profit for this December, given December is only a few days away from closing. A second consecutive quarterly gross profit will make market excited that maybe LCTITAN might survive i.e. the billions it spent on LINE project is not going to go to zero and might be worth billions still.

I suspect we might see final dividend at around 82 sen though (LY around 98 sen) i.e. I think if one is patient, there is 60% chance, we may be able to add HEIM again at around 22.5 or thereabouts.

@sell, you sold way too early at 22.4 and 22.46.

Nevertheless, short term, I expect price to zig zag and usually, there's a second chance to buy back around the price that you sold, if HEIM's coming underlying results for Q4 are lower than the low expectation.

In this recent swing fall to 21.02 low, market expects a small dividend reduction comes 4th Quarter. Perhaps around 10-12 sen lower, but if it comes much lower than say 15 sen lower, we might see 22.5 again.

In hindsight, 2022 was an exceptional year for HEIM. So, looking forward to next year, I think it will be a good result if 2024 matches 2022 year or better. Dividend yield of 5%+ is a good result for FYE2023 and DPS should grow in 2024 vs 2023 IMHO.

HEIM 24.24 .. +0.46 .. wow ...

No news on LCTITAN but +7.3%? Still holding ... stock is very cheap by NTA standards. The company spent billions past 2 years to convert cash into PPE, but every RM1 converted to PPE is only valued at 20-25 sen by Mr Market. Something is obviously not right here for past 1-2 years but Mr Market is very depressed.

We can only dream to accumulate at 8.8. Go to sleep early, hope our dreams come true. Sweet dreams!

Today, both CARLSBG and HEIM helped made my portfolio hit new all time high.

CARLSBG testing 19.4x resistance zone. Half expecting we've seen the low already, but will know in next few weeks. If it gets stopped at this resistance zone, we'll be looking to accumulate more at lower prices to keep long term.

Thank-you HEIM, for making my portfolio hit new high today! What are great year this year!

Price didn't go higher than RM5.80 yet, because some people wants the monies now and so, are willing to sell first at below RM5.80, instead of waiting for RM5.80 later.

My guess is the Singapore buyers are looking at higher earnings yields offshore (Malaysia), and diversify by currency too. Also possible for future dividends to be increased, due to high net cash and not efficient capital wise. Current dividends 25-35 sen is likely to be enhanced (but speculative) or maybe special dividend after take-over.

Anyway, I had an extremely lovely ride - not inside my Top 3 largest wins - but still a very decent win having bought at 3.xx, excluding dividends and realized gains. The easy gains have already been had, now going forward, it's going to be harder.