kl_guy, that's true and very common.

A week plus ago, Jonathan shared "Strong possibilities of Lctitan testing new low below 95 sen." This is a common TA trader view back then as it was downtrending, so, majority odds.

Subsequently, it printed a higher low of 0.985, 0.5 sen higher than the normal expectation of 0.98, which I mentioned. The fact that it didn't happen means market knows how TA traders thinks and moves ahead of them.

However, because market knows that we know, so, market thinks another step ahead typically. I.e. typically 2 steps ahead of TA traders.

Meaning, 0.985 might not be the low - I would say 30%-40% chance it could revisit this.
Whereas the chance of touching 1.46 within next 12 months, IMHO, is slightly better than 40% chance.
Vast majority of the time, it's going to try to exhaust participants first, before it makes its move.
The odds add up to more than 100% because price revisits same levels many, many times.

Don't be greedy. I've seen fundamental stocks priced at P/NTA = 0.2, then, fall to 0.1, i.e. 50% fall from current price. Nothing is impossible.

(sorry ... a company that is about to be taken over soon will have a completely different price action than what's printed so far ... quite certain there is no take over soon).

Take over soon? Haha ...

A few comments:

1. Technical analysis alone, has lower win rate. Simply because you can have 2 stocks printing the same chart set-up, but they have different businesses ranging from sound businesses to "goreng" stocks. So, if you want an easier trade, avoid the latter.

2. LCTITAN has sunk billions of good cash into expansion the past 3 years. However, Mr Market became more pessimistic, to the point that today, it values each RM1 cash invested at only 20 sen. It's low, but nobody knows if it's the bottom.

3. If price continues to fall, you will see worse news and worse financials reported AFTER price falls. The problem of speculating too big is that your hands are weaker. Weak hands tend to panic when price goes into a new downtrend, printing lower lows. The lower highs then play their emotions like violin - like a fisherman toying with a catch - pull them in (with lower highs), then let them go to panic (with lower lows), etc - to make them feel trapped to make them become desperate. And if you have a weak banker, suddenly, what was originally just a technical factor turns into a real fundamental business factor, to cause the business to go bust. By this stage, because you bet too big and trapped, you cannot get out. Therefore, for this type of plays, never bet the farm.

4. Nevertheless, with P/NTA of only 0.2 times, when it turn around, the rewards will easily beat KLCI returns. LCTITAN is now looking like a coiled spring that has been wound up even more tightly with each price fall. So, when it turns, there will be an incredibly strong fundamental tailwind. Combined with FOMO, the move up could be fast and strong. So fast, you might not catch it. Especially if you're like me who has a full time work and family life. A long green candle one day will put you off from jumping in.

5. 1.46 is only the first of many potential gap fills. There are higher gap fills shown in the chart. Therefore, I will never sell 100% at 1.46. Always leave something behind for higher gap fills. Nothing is impossible, even the upside.

6. To avoid watching markets, you may set a GTC sell order at 1.46, slightly below that, or slightly higher than that. Then, you don't need to monitor markets.

I just posted an article on LCTITAN here, sharing my trading idea.
I'm patient and can wait for 1, 2 or 3 years for my trading idea to come to fruition. If it happens within a few months, that is a bonus to me.

Glad I ignored that downtrend line resistance. HEIM today powered up strongly +84 sen! The long term uptrend holds, when we look at the monthly chart. Thanks to HEIM and other greens offsetting reds, and thanks to KLCI edging up, my portfolio made a new all time highs again! Thank-you Mr Market.

Blogged on HEIM here. HEIM closed at the downtrend line resistance, a line swing traders usually respects because it connects 5 points and is normally considered an important resistance.

However, as long term dividend investor, I am ignoring it and just holding. This is because on monthly candle charts spanning 30 years of prices, it is still near the accumulation zone connecting nearly 20 points over 30 year period i.e. this line is much stronger than the first line.

I explain in more detail in my article.

Thanks to 28 greens (including HEIM) offseting 12 reds, my portfolio hit new all time high again today, as KLCI powers up.

PAVREIT powers up. +4 sen. Thanks to 28 greens (including PAVREIT) offsetting 12 reds, my portfolio hit new all time high again as KLCI also powering up too. Everyone happy!

Strong 8 sen gain, at high volume. Have we seen BESHOM's bottom?

Despite BESHOM downtrending and small holdings, 28 greens including small BESHOM holding offset 12 reds to cause my portfolio to hit new all time high again today, as KLCI powers up too! All happy!

Nice price action this week, past 4 weeks, and past year.

Thanks to PPHB and 25 green stocks offsetting 13 red stocks, my portfolio made new all time high again today. Thank-you PPHB, thank-you Mr Market!

Thanks to MAYBANK and other greens offsetting reds, my portfolio made new all time high again today! May has been a great month, it's the 6th time it made new all time highs.

Anyway, as it approaches RM10, the perennial question that always come up is - should I sell if I already has 20% price gain.

I blogged about it here in i3. Short answer for me is a clear no. As usual, you are responsible for your own investment decisions.

Fwiw, old investors always favor to get rich slowly, than win big and fast.

This stock is really great in a 30-50 stock portfolio - in this type of portfolio, the owner can't hep but get rich slowly but surely.

However, this stock should never be the 1 out of 1 stock portfolio, to get rich and fast.

If you are a hardcore Buffet fan, you are not wrong to quote that when he was younger 6 decades ago in the 1960s, he did not diversify but concentrated. He can do this because he won the lottery of being born in the US, a country that allowed him to be an activist and force management to unlock value, that even today in Malaysia, you are unlikely to be successful as an individual with PPHB.

So, no need to pick a fight with PPHB. Just own a little bit, in a diversified portfolio. Then, imagine market is closed for 2, 3, 5 years. When market reopens, odds are good the NAPS and Net Cash is much larger and odds are good that the price will rise to create that small buffer. Or if we are in a bull market, the mania at the tail end of a bull market will bid this stock up to ridiculous levels.

So, the risk is not having a position at the tip of the bull market mania.

When I first entered, its net cash was much lower and I entered at an average price of 58 sen.
After a while, last QR, its Net Cash is 55 sen, so, without selling, I already feel safe at 58 sen entry.
Time helps - the company generated cash regularly and the Net worth rises steadily as a result.
Next year if it makes 40 million PAT after paying fat checks to everyone, that adds another 15 sen to the NAPS and that's not a bad increase in Net Worth.
The following year, same idea.
And so on ...
The odds are overwhelmingly favoring buy and hold investors here for several years at least.

But as always, nothing is guaranteed in investing. So, don't bet the farm. But own some of it. It's good odds.

Fwiw, I do understand that the dividend declared has been extremely small, and I do understand that it looks like an insult. But for those with longer term orientation, it always look darkest before dawn.

The dad, founder, head honcho is 72 years old now, but he has his family in the Board and Senior Management with his 2 sons age 47 and 43 in the Board and Senior Management. Whilst nothing is guaranteed in investing, I feel it's great odds that over the next 2, 3, 5 years, the cash will keep building in the company. The continuity is there, it's in a great business profile wise.

Warren Buffet likes to say - after you buy, imagine that the security is no longer traded in Bursa for the next 5 years - would you be comfortable to own this business?

For me, in a diversified portfolio, my answer is definitely yes.

I don't need the daily quotes of Bursa to validate my ownership of this business.

I don't bet the farm, so, 5 years later, odds are good that they won't squander the Net Cash and by that stage, they have little choice but to do something with it. Family founded business rarely allow their children age 43 and 47 to kill the net worth built up, so, odds are good that it's worth owning and investing.

Just don't borrow, leverage and bet the moon on one stock.

For me, I stick to my position sizing and ignore the market price gyrations.

Sell something small like 5% of your holdings if you want to create a yearly dividend, if this action gets you to hold for several years.

The worst decision is to sell all for a company like this to earn 10% and then see the stock rising over the next 5 years.

Yup. Thanks to PPHB, plus the greens offsetting the reds, my portfolio made new all time high again today. Thank-you PPHB, thank-you Mr Market. With so much cash, I hope one day it will decide to pay out some dividends and that is going to be very, very good for long term investors. Normally, "hope" is not a word I like to use when investing, but here, the longer term upside looks more promising than the downside given how much it has generated net cash the past few years. It wasn't always like this, but the company has changed the past 4-5 years and let's hope management continues to generate cash like this.

I just blogged about PPHB. Nice moves. More to come for the patient long term investor - I'm thinking at least another 2 years if not longer as long as it keeps generating cash.

Thanks to GENM, GENTING, HUPSENG, OSK, PPHB, SHANG and 16 other green stocks to offset 11 red stocks (22 vs 11), my portfolio made new all time high again today. Thank-you GENM, thank you GENTING, thank-you Mr Market, even though KLCI only edged +0.14%.

Investors already have position before today's move up.
What about you short term traders? Chase tomorrow at 2.72? (I'm not because I'm an investor 😅 - already positioned).

Warren Buffet said that investing is best done if you imagine you can punch only 20 tickets over your investing lifetime. When do you punch that ticket?

The trouble with traders is that the theory sounds great on paper, but incredibly hard to practice. Whereas with only 20 tickets to punch over a lifetime, when do you punch?

I would open a 20-30 year chart and then make that decision. You can't go wrong doing what Mr Buffet recommends.

In case you're wondering what price I sold for partial profit taking and why, it was 16 Jan 24, at 1.49. I forgot now why I did that, most likely it was trying to take advantage of the 1.50 round number resistance, thinking it will hit and fall and I can pick it back up again on the cheap ... but I never could buy it back on the cheap ... and now, it went past 1.61 today.

This is what happens when we are not a trader ...

And it's so difficult even if you can watch because the market gyrations will consume you.

Much better, much easier to ignore and collect dividends and just focus on monthly charts over 2-3 decades to pick the peak of the bull market and stay focused on the market crashes and then just bet a significant chunk of your net worth to make a difference to your life. Otherwise, most of the time, ignore the noise up and down on small moves.

Ok, did a quick blog post on OSK to better share my thoughts. It may be low odds today, but after nearly 3 decades of ding dong, if it breaks above 2.19 its all time high over 3 decades, technicians will tell you that the breakout will be spectacular i.e. we could be looking at RM5 just using projection price methodology. Its NTA is 2.97, at the peak of a market bull run, it is not unusual for a stock like this to trade at its book value or a higher in a mania. All this payout is contingent on making a new high first and contingent on a bull run that will hit a peak. Minority odds. But my average cost is now only 45 sen, below COVID low, so, I'm very patient and in no rush and prefer to do nothing. Don't chase. Best of luck. Cheers!

Chart wise, definitely can't sell ... especially when average cost price is 45 sen. Definitely not chasing, but will keep holding and ignore price movement. Got to give the bull the chance to try to break 24 year high - last time was 2.19 at Feb 2000. Minority chance within 1 year but I like to hope there's a majority chance before this bull run is over.

The nice thing about accumulating dividend stocks when their prices are low is that they keep edging up and here, they moved up, and even though market is just up +0.14%, I have 22 green stocks, offsetting 11 red stocks, and thanks to these green stocks including OSK, my portfolio made new all time high again today. My average OSK entry price EXCLUDING dividends is 91 sen. Still holding on at 1.61. With dividends and some small profit taking in the past, my average cost price is 45 sen. As it keeps paying dividends, one day, I guess I will own the entire amount for free. And at that time, I look forward to a market crash and with the cash, buy again at low price. No need to do active trading, the cash dividends paid out does it for you and best of all, I haven't looked at OSK charts much this year or read about it, maybe once every quarter or so.

Same here, bought back GTRONIC I sold at 1.41-1.64 at 1.21 a couple of days ago.

New high RM2. Can't argue ...

Inches to test 9.88 high

Inches to 1.48, new high

When it was 18.28, the dividend yield was a ridiculous 5.1% for a superior stock like this!
Today at 19.4, the dividend yield is still attractive 4.5% per annum.
If patient, will beat that long term downtrend line - see my quick blog post on the chart I'm looking at.

If you missed out, no need to chase. My guess is majority odds it'll rise and not higher than RM20, then, fall back down to RM19 where you should be able to collect near there.

Remember, it's still downtrending since RM25 peak 15 months ago, so, majority bias is still lower prices, notwithstanding that if it does get to near RM20, that bottom we saw at 18.26 is maybe the swing bottom already.

Today looks like FOMO.

Oh my ... +70 sen. Such a long green candle on high volume, notwitstanding the longer downtrend since peaking at RM25 in Feb 15 months ago.

Thanks to CARLSBG and strong KLCI to make more greens than reds, my portfolio made new all time highs again today for 4 consecutive days this month!

I'm happy with my position size (targetting 2.5%-3% capital since I also owned HEIM and very diversified portfolio) - I continue to add on weakness the past months, my last add was at RM18.28. Easy average down strategy here.

Market is always euphoric on PN17 status companies when they perceive no more threat with AAG. With +7.13% gain today, clearly FOMO has strucked. My guess is all these doubts that was originally planned to be posed to Stony should be easily dismissed now as "fringe noises" as FOMO overwhelmed.

Thanks to CAPITALA and other greens offseting reds, my portfolio made new all-time highs again today - that's 4 times in a row this month. KLCI is so strong! A rising tide raise all boats as Mr Buffet likes to say (doesn't mean all of us a good stock pickers, but who's complaining? :-) ).

PPHB inches up 0.5 sen, KLCI moved up to 1605! Today is 4th consecutive days my portfolio made new all time highs in May. CARLSBG and CAPITALA helped too. 23 greens offsetting 13 reds, one of the reds being LCTITAN.

Thanks Plantermen. I'm indifferent to the outcome of this one trade, as I own many stocks.

Still, today closed at 1.00 with almost equal volume as yesterday. 4 red days. Usually, 5th day should be red (majority odds). However, today was not capitulation but slowing down, with only 2 sen from Open to Close. Not common to see a big capitulation after today's move down.

So, if extend, majority odds tomorrow might see 98 sen. My position here is still significantly underweighted at around 2.36% of portfolio (target is 3%), as my total portfolio made new all time high again today! Expected as KLCI is strong, to land at 1605!

My accumulation order at 1.00 was filled. Basically bought nearly 40% of what I previously sold at 1.4x. I didn’t buy 100% because a larger part of me expects more downtrend. This is part of a longer term strategy. Not expecting anything to happen in near term except for lower prices.

All long traders should seriously thank Sslee for his hard work to persistently post bearish questions.
Think about it.
When there's so much bearish news but price goes up, isn't this one of the good setups to go long?

Divergence is a great trading idea ... :-).

Thank-you Sslee.

With open profits, I can go to several overseas Airasia trip paid for by Stony for my family!

My average buy price is 66 sen. If include past realized gain, then, average entry price is 41 sen. Sometimes, we are so lucky ... but I know the odds of repeating this type of trade is low.

To be honest, I hardly ever watch CAPITALA price chart this year even after closing.
So, I do extremely little work here.
So, very nice to open the chart and see a non-bearish long term price consolidation.
The serious trader will like this stock. (I'm not a trader but an investor, but not this stock).

CAPITALA - despite 10 consecutive green days - the broader price action is not bearish! Note a few higher lows that goes back since COVID low. The volatile price is good for traders who love to trade the price action. I have a small trading position here but not large relative to my other investing position. Very nice % win so far and MV has grown to 0.85% capital, which to me is a sizeable trading position given this is not exactly a Warren Buffet stock.

Shorts greatest fear for this stock is that after nearly 4 years of sideways consolidation, this stock closes the opening gap down which gives a target price of 2.85! It's not impossible if give another 1 to 4 years! Haha ...

All time low 0.975. Traders will be eyeing price action near here.
Given the downward momentum (huge fear), my tembak sense say maybe 50:50 chance we may see a new low, if RM1 round number support doesn't hold.

Apparently, market likes to make new low to trigger traders stop losses below there. I don't know and don't care.

If it does get there, then, maybe got some chance we might see capitulation i.e. big drop down fast and recover fast. This is because today's candle length is longer with bigger volume.

So, the question for this week is will tomorrow be even longer red candle with even bigger volume?

Traders love capitulation because this is when you make fast monies as a trader.

PPHB moving up nicely. New high since Dec 2020 high 0.895. I think more than 50% chance of exceeding that this round. Let's see.

Today is the 3rd consecutive days my portfolio made new all time highs in May.
In April, I counted the portfolio made new all time highs 10 days.

What a strong year this year has been. Thank-you Mr Market!

Thanks to PPHB, UOADEV and other greens offsetting reds, my portfolio made new all time high again today! Helped that KLCI closed green. Hope everyone made money!

UOADEV closed 1.94, +5 sen and broke above that multiple horizontal resistance. What a lovely price action. UOADEV is one of my larger position - Top 16%. Can't complain!

Thanks to UOADEV and all my greens to offset my reds, my portfolio made new all time high again today, as KLCI also goes green! Hope everyone makes money! Thank-you Mr Market!

Hi cheated. Yes, with KLCI up, majority of my stocks went up, to offset the reds and yes, my portfolio made new all time high again today, even with LCTITAN down 5 sen.

That is the beauty of a highly diversified above average quality businesses. No one single stock dominates.

Unfortunately, i3 has deleted all references to my blog. That's fine since I blog mostly for my own future reading and future reference. It reduces my sharing but I respect i3's wishes.

Whilst LCTITAN drop 5 sen, my other stock UOADEV went up 5 sen and I own more shares there than in LCTITAN, hence, that helps. But it's now behaving as I expect, so, curious to see how much lower LCTITAN can get. Times like this, as it approaches accumulation zone, this is an opportunity.

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

TENAGA bull! Thanks to TENAGA, HEKTAR, CSCSTEL and other green stocks offsetting red stocks, my portfolio has made new all time high again today, after yesterday's all time high. Trust everyone is happy. Still haven't sold since my last post a week ago. The bull is strong, this one RM13 resistance will be a magnet eventually. They never travel in a straight line up, but let them zig and zag, eventually, RM13 will come.

Having said that, not a chaser. As price rise, I am definitely not buying this power/utility company. Instead, I will be thinking to sell near resistance. Long term dividends is somewhere between 45 sen to 60 sen to be prudent (it can exceed this and it can be below this). As dividend investor, once a high yielder yield starts to drop to 3% or so, I will typically not be that interested anymore and will start to shift gradually towards cash. As long as the charts is bullish, will still ride it.

Good luck everyone!