If prices stay low, it means the sale is unlikely to happen. Don't hold your breath for this to happen.

Stock NTA is 8.75. Still holding.

MAYBANK is still in bull market. Not interested in selling before ex-div, and buying back after ex-div. The rule about bull market is sit tight. In time, what goes down will go back up and make new highs, if all else equal.

So, I only have 1 key rule. Don't lose money.

Means what?

Means don't average down blindly when you are losing.

If you don't average down, you'll never have big losses.

And if you learn how to fish yourself, in a year, I find 50 ideas quite easily. 1 wrong idea, still got 49 other ideas. My actual win rate is in the region of 85%+. I include LCTITAN since despite entering at RM2, my average cost is now RM1.14 and since today closed RM1.15, it's a win!!!

With the positive bias from a decent dividend yield portfolio, plus a win rate much higher than lose rate, plus never ever lose big from any one trade, your portfolio is just going to make new highs quite regularly. The goal is to beat EPF by 1%-2% but in reality exceeding this significantly more. So, it's not exciting. It's kind of boring. So many others make much, much larger % gains. But I can invest much bigger $ in this. Scaleable. Same strategy whether 5 digit, 6 digit, or 7 digit. Hopefully can keep doing this for long periods of time, to keep accumulating higher than EPF rate. It's subconscious for me now for a few years already.

Think of it this way. When your entire portfolio dividend yield is 5.4%, you know you have an edge. After 1 year, if price don't fall, you earned 5.4%. That's a positive edge.

So, I trade here and there occasionally. Like RAPID - I bet 0.5% capital and now, I lost like 0.3% capital. 0.3% capital is small relative to dividends. Each month, on average, my dividends is around 0.45%. So, whilst RAPID loses over 60%, it is tiny and in less than a month, I made that up from dividends elsewhere. So, my RAPID is not a permanent loss, because more than a month has passed and I have forgotten about my RAPID.

Basically, you want to put yourself in these type of position. Even when you are hugely wrong, you still grow your monies.

And more importantly, is prepare for more price falls.
Let say price falls to 97 sen.
What will I do?
Very likely, as I said, I have already looked at the long term charts.
It will tell me to buy again at 1.00. Smaller.
The great thing about being diversified so much is your emotions doesn't come into the picture.
What's the worst loss that I can have, if price falls to 97 sen, when average cost is 1.14 and at 1.15 it is 3% capital?

1. When price falls from 1.15 to 97 sen, the 3% capital shrinks.
- If you don't average down, your loss shrinks.
- If all else is equal, now, your LCTITAN shrink to around 2.55% capital.
- So, you lose 0.45% capital.
Big deal.

2. Here, you use your chart reading skills. Has it bottomed? Because price action is key.
I can't tell in advance. I have to wait until the chart forms itself. Have to wait for other things.
The decision on when to average down is usually a bit trickier if it's not obvious from long term charts.

So, here, my trading plan is hazy. I'll have to wait and see. But regardless, losing 0.45% capital is tiny. I have many other stocks that offsets these kind of losses. Hence, overall, these tend to rise more than fall because of the higher win rate.

And dividends help.

There's also another principle regarding statistical edge.

If you have an edge in trading - let say 60% win rate, 40% lose rate (my win rate is much higher because I combine fundamentals).

You want to make as many constant bet size as possible. (Hence I diversify with over 33 high dividend yield stocks). The more you "trade", the greater the odds of winning to grow your total portfolio.

This is another key principle for me.

There's a few principles regarding position size. Here's a theoretical example (not talking about LCTITAN anymore).

1. If you first entered at RM2 with 1 lot, and bought RM 1 with 10 lots, your average cost is going to be closer to RM1 than RM2. It has an average cost of RM1.09.

2. If price goes to RM1.5 and you sell 5 lots (nearly half), your average cost will drop to 75 sen.

3. If price goes back down to RM1, and you buy back 5 lots, your average cost will rise to 86 sen.

If you understand this principles, and apply them to certain type of stocks, then, you can get the kind of results that I got. It's mathematics. Combined with charts. Combined with what you know about cyclical stocks and fundamentals.

It's hard to imagine, if your maths are not strong.
I first entered LCTITAN at RM2.

How can my position be profitable now, with an average cost of 1.14?

The answer is mathematics ... plus a combination of buy lower, sell higher, and relative position size.

If you haven't experienced this, it means you have not traded enough nor understand the mathematics.

I don't have special insights into LCTITAN. I blog and you'll see I do make mistakes like RAPID (but RAPID is tiny). When LCTITAN went to 1.5+, iirc, it was around 5% +/- of my portfolio if not mistaken (going by memory here, which can be hazy) and that is considered big in my portfolio as I am very highly diversified. But I did take profits as price went up as I said I would. I kept more than half for higher prices to let go but price didn't accomodate me, before it crashes.

But fwiw, when I include the past dividends, my average cost price (after reducing by dividends) is 1.14. Today closed at 1.15, so, I no longer lose any monies here. It helps that when a stock price is volatile, cyclical, adopt some buying and selling at logical price ranges - that helps to lower your average cost progressively. But it requires good chart readings. In my previous life (over a decade ago), I was a chart based swing trader but not very good because of overtrading. Today, I do much better as a dividend investor, focusing on fundamentals and incorporating chart trading in my entries and exits, but the number 1 factor is position sizing. This gives a much more stable result.

6 days ago, I wrote this ... I shared I plan to accumulate at 1.10 and 1.00, but bite less ... I followed my plan. I bite LCTITAN at 1.10 and I bite "less". Now, LCTITAN is 3% of my portfolio. That's a neutral position for me. Not feeling greedy nor fearful, just neutral. And I have many other stocks in my highly diversified portfolio.

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Strong price drop from 1.57 swing high down to 1.15 close over short time (1+ months). Significant fear there.
Originally planned to accumulate at 1.10 and 1.00, but in view of strong price drop, will only bite small there.
Odds to make new all time lows below 0.975 is now significant - say 20%-30% chance. We like fear opportunities, but the question is always - where is that point of maximum fear? So many levels to choose from.

In the scenario where it makes new all time low, patience is required for cyclical stock. It could take years. Meanwhile EPF monies earn consistently 5%-7% per annum returns, so, why rush? If 3 years, your EPF earns 20% profit already. If you own LCTITAN, you are betting that it will rebound faster but more likely (in view of downtrend) to lose out to EPF.

Always play with the odds. Better to not add to your losers, but if must add, add small and be prepared to be underwater for up to years if need be.

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@cheated, what an interesting handle name. If you click on my name, follow carefully my comments in its entirety (rather than cherry picking), then, you'll know that I am very highly diversified. I have at least 33 holdings where the DY is 4% or higher. My portfolio DY is currently around 5.4% (market price basis), so, I won't get very large % gains, but like an FD balance, each day, your FD is just going to keep rising and rising isn't it?

My LCTITAN is small. When it crossed to around 1.5 or so recently, I sold nearly half of my holdings. So, I just bought some at 1.1 today. Whilst my core holdings are long term dividend yields, I also sometimes do trading like this for LCTITAN because it's a cyclical stock. More often than not, price tends to mean revert. Sometimes, strong trends emerges and that's when selling loses out profits.

Neither is necessarily better styles, but for my own risk appetite, I prefer to buy when it's low and start taking profits slowly when it starts to beat my gain expectations and depending (it's judgement), either accelerate the selling as price goes higher or slow down the selling as price goes higher. Here, I'm only half right with LCTITAN as after hitting 1.5, I didn't expect it to fall so much, else I would have sold more above 1.5.

But that sort of activity does smoothen my portfolio results but it's not uncommon for my portfolio, for majority of months, to keep making new highs, largely due to a combination of recent market moves up and the high dividend yield (and also buying when price is low and also buying above average quality stocks).

Managed to trim a little bit, but still my Top 15% holdings by market value. Dividend yield on cost is 8.3%. Can hold for a long time if not look at markets and just collect dividends. Of course, sitting on winners and do nothing is often the right strategy unless it is a bear market or clearly sideways market.

Fuiyoh ... biggest gain in my portfolio today. Feeling blessed and thankful ...

I'm still waiting for the right entry price for speculative trading purposes.
Rohit won't leave. He's not one to give up with this setback. Chartwise, it's clear that he has turn around the company, halted the massive downtrend caused by previous CEOs.

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Strong price drop from 1.57 swing high down to 1.15 close over short time (1+ months). Significant fear there.
Originally planned to accumulate at 1.10 and 1.00, but in view of strong price drop, will only bite small there.
Odds to make new all time lows below 0.975 is now significant - say 20%-30% chance. We like fear opportunities, but the question is always - where is that point of maximum fear? So many levels to choose from.

In the scenario where it makes new all time low, patience is required for cyclical stock. It could take years. Meanwhile EPF monies earn consistently 5%-7% per annum returns, so, why rush? If 3 years, your EPF earns 20% profit already. If you own LCTITAN, you are betting that it will rebound faster but more likely (in view of downtrend) to lose out to EPF.

Always play with the odds. Better to not add to your losers, but if must add, add small and be prepared to be underwater for up to years if need be.

Beware sunset business.
Business EPS and DPS CAGR negative 12% per annum CAGR, price dropped similarly.
Follow long term fundamentals and follow long term price trend. When fundamentals and technical drops like this past 10 years, with no reversals, avoid. Don't be a hero to predict change in fundamentals and change in price trends - that is low probability game and more likely, you will lose out to EPF.

Post removed.Why?

Time is the chief enemy for a sunset stock like this - new lows in the past, new low today, the longer you hold, the more you average down, more new lows in the future. Don't fight the trend.

Can't blame the stock for living up to its name ... falling like "rapid" waterfall! 😂

@raider, you echo my thoughts - double before 5 years is a majority scenario in my book too, especially after this Special Dividend landmark decision. For the first time, in a very long time, HLIND finally decided to share more of its cash with shareholders. Truly landmark.

Now is only Q2, and total dividends 70 sen, highest ever (at least past 10 years).
Nice increase from the previous 57 sen too.
This is how dividends should be managed.

Hence, can recommend higher than neutral position for long term investment.
If the price fall, you'll find me there to support and accumulate to be higher than neutral.

Fuiyoh .... 50 sen special dividend beat my expectations so, so, nicely!
Total dividend this year is now 70 sen. At current price of 9.57, that's still easily above 7% dividend yield.
I am applauding management and the board for not hoarding the cash!
Bravo HLIND!

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

My most recent accumulation price is 1.19. It brings my average price down to 1.33, so, I'm still in red. I have around 2.5% of my capital here, so, the unrealized loss is very small.

Normally, I'm not excited at my losses, so, I don't think I'll add more because I already added at 1.19.

@raider, agree it is long term cyclical, that's a sound strategy for cyclicals, except the question is - has it bottomed yet ? What is your average accumulation price and position size (what % of capital) in LCTITAN?

Post removed.Why?

@1288, a couple of months ago, I penned this here. At the time, both BAT and HLIND were trading at similar levels at 9.17 or thereabouts. I shared my view then that it's probably better to swap BAT to HLIND, because both pays high dividends, but one shows declining EPS vs the other rising EPS.

Today, BAT is 9.02. HLIND is 9.40.

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To long term BAT lovers.
Today, BAT closes 9.16.
Another stock that closes similarly is HLIND 9.17.

If you are not a trader and you think you'll be holding BAT for "long term" (e.g. several years), you may want to consider partial / full swap.

Over the past 8 years, BAT EPS dropped from 318 sen (2015) down to 68 sen (2023 Est).
Over the same period, HLIND Net Cash grew from 275m (2016) up to 1600+ million (2023 Est).

HLIND pays a generally rising dividend from 29 sen (2015) to 57 sen (2023 Est).
BAT dividends shrunk from 312 sen (2015) down to 67 sen (2023 Est).

Think about the difference.
You don't need to be a Grade A+ trader like MOBA to win.
Buy HLIND when the price is low.
Do nothing and relax.
In a few years time, check up BAT prices again and compare your HLIND holdings.
Odds are good that you'll win with HLIND.

As usual, nothing is certain in investing.
Hence, don't bet more than 5% of your investment portfolio on any 1 idea.

Hmmm ... after 7 consecutive quarter reporting losses, chart action suggests that speculators are now trying to pick bottoms and betting that LCTITAN's prospects are now looking brighter.

Can't complain. Not chasing. Happy to hold and watch.

On Valentine's Day, I took a trading buy position to buy SHANG at 2.03. Didn't expect it to take off so quickly to close at 2.16. For whatever reason, SHANG is still downtrending, so I won't chase. The only question is should I sell at rally attempts.

My trading position is typically 10-30 times smaller than my dividend investing position, so, I really don't care about the outcome of this trade - no point making a couple hundred bucks. The price action the past 6-7 months seem to indicate more than 50%-55% chance that last month fall is a fake breakdown, typically indicating that we may have seen the bottom. But the trend is unmistakeably downtrending i.e. it's really a coin toss whether this is the bottom or not.

As my trading position is small, I'm going to wait and let market tells me if it's going to make a new low or this is the bottom. A part of me hopes that this rally is a fake one, it makes a new low allowing me to turn my small trading position into an investing position for the next 12-36 months.

I like the SHANG brand name. No exposures to hotels yet. Can be a good diversification to finally own an investing position to utilize 2%-3% of my investing capital.

Nice. On 2/1/24, I first entered into KLCC at RM7.00 as its Dividend Yield ranges between 5%-5.5%. Nice to see it closes strongly today at RM7.65. Together with BIMB and and 22 other stocks in green to offset reds, my portfolio has hit new all time highs again today. That's 4 consecutive days of hitting new all time highs. What a great New Year! Thank-you Mr Market.

Wonder when BJFOOD will issue the quarterly report. Historically, it issues it between 6 to 13 Feb. Today is 16 Feb and not yet issued. Having problems to explain its MRQ earnings? Hmmmnnn ...

On 6 Feb, substantial shareholder (Berjaya Corp, Group, etc) bought 21.2 million shares. Do they know something, or trying to trick the market to support prices? This type of activity (buying its own shares and delaying the issue of the quarterly report to contain the first bad impact) doesn't inspire trust.

It is amazing when you track its NTA growth over the past 10 years - this small growing stock has consistently grown its NTA by 14% per annum CAGR over past 10 years. It's NTA is 3.29. It's trading at 2.44, below Book Value, for a bank that grows its equity at the rate of 14% per annum over past 10 years ... it was so overlooked by the market.

It's Dividend Payout ratio is only 38% ... not stretching at all. This stock grows its Net Worth and grows its earnings and is having a conservative dividend payout ratio. And when I entered at an average cost of 1.87, it was yielding 7.2% dividend yield. What a bargain then.

It pays to own overlooked stocks when everyone was afraid and nobody wants to own it when it was crashing back in May 2022.

I know this bank's value and with a price action like this, there's no rush to take profits on its way up. I may trim it so that it doesn't become too big a proportion but otherwise, the strategy is still to sit tight on your winners and sit tight on your losers, so that your winners become a larger proportion of your portfolio and your losers naturally become a smaller proportion of your portfolio so that your portfolio can keep making new all time highs regularly especially when you own a portfolio of sound, good fundamental stocks and businesses ...

Looking closer, I was very lucky to have entered into BIMB near the bottom.
- My first entry was 9/5/23 at 2.03.
- I then keep buying more as price went down until it hit near the bottom of 1.75 - I didn't get the absolute low of 1.7, but it was good enough to be able to buy at 1.75.
- That brought my average cost down to 1.87.
- Then, we receive dividends. I took some small profits and my net cost after dividends and a small amount of realized means my average cost price is now 1.70. This is for my 5th largest holdings out of 48 stocks.

At 2.44 close today, my unrealized gains is now close to 43%.

And here I was, when I entered at an average cost of 1.87, I was only happy to target a long term Dividend Yield of 7.2%. Now it turns out, instead of gaining 7% (since I held less than a year), I have earned something like 43% gains. What a bonus.

Thank-you Mr Market.

Fuiyoh ... BIMB closed +3.83%. BIMB now climbs to my Top 5 largest stock from Top 7 yesterday. Thanks to BIMB and 23 other stocks that closed in green, my portfolio hit New All Time high again today for 4 consecutive trading days ... Thank-you Mr Market!

Can TAANN hit RM4? Today decent close +2.71% challenging resistance. Intraday looks like rejection and price might fall for a while but the overall attack since Mar 2023 low looks promising in the near future.

The higher lows over past 12 months doesn't make it easy to accumulate. It means there's buyers each time these higher lows were revisited. Someone's accumulating.

Good odds we'll be laughing anywhere in the next 1-12 months ...

BIMB closed +2.6% with higher volume. Nice price move, looking to retest previous resistance. The more times it tries to retest, the better in general.

BIMB is my 7th largest holding out of 49 stocks today. Thanks to BIMB and 21 other green stocks to offset the few reds, my portfolio made new All Time High again today. Thank-you Mr Market!

HAPSENG +1.66%, trying to make an upward move. This plus other green is enough to offset the reds, to propel my portfolio to make new all time high again today. Thank-you Mr Market.

@mini, EPF is very good to deliver average 6% pa. since I started working. My net worth is safe and has grown considerably here. I also self invest in stocks and since inception beat EPF by nearly 4% per annum. It is now larger than my EPF. I recommend EPF to everyone.

@fabien, you'll need to understand selling, to allocate capital efficiently.

PAVREIT closed RM1.32. Nice. After my initial entry at 1.22, I added more as it weakened, with an average buy cost of RM1.21. When foreigners comes to Bursa, they seem to like this one more on the REIT space for obvious reasons.

MBMR closed 4.66, making new All Time High again today.
Thanks to MBMR, MAYBANK, FPI and other stocks, my portfolio also made new all time high again today.
Thank-you Mr Market!

Thanks to MAYBANK, FPI and 21 other stocks to offset 14 red stocks today, my portfolio hit new all-time high again today. With KLCI + 1.26%, hope everyone's portfolio are doing well as well. Thank-you Mr Market.

MAYBANK closed 9.44, helped pull KLCI up.
I'm expecting MAYBANK to declare 32 sen dividend.
I'm also expecting highest EPS for past 9 years, maybe even past 10 years.
Share price no where near highet over past 10 years.
RM10 is a magnet. If supported by positive earnings outlook, we might see this price over next few months.
If foreigners can sustain buying into Malaysia this year, we might even see RM11 either this or next year.

Nice close at 3.05. With higher volume too. Thanks to FPI and another 22 other stocks, my portfolio hit new all time high again today.

Next stop is RM3.45 to close the big opening gap fill a year ago.

At 10.82, TENAGA has given me a price gain of nearly 18%. Originally, I was only looking for 4% price gain per annum, so that's nearly 4.5 years of annual gains already, sooner than I expect. The DY has falled to 4.3%. My DY on cost is 5.3%.

Personally, my base case view is RM11 is a magnet and RM12 is not impossible.
At the same time, I can identify a dozen stocks where very likely monies are better spent on these dozen than remain in TENAGA. These are choices between decent choices (TENAGA) and what I think are better future prospects.

As such, the rational strategy for me is obvious. As price hits my targets, I will lighten to buy what I think are better opportunities. I don't do this often, very rarely in fact, so, these have to be very, very clear to me before I execute. 99% of the decision depends on what market gives me. Nearly always, I do nothing.

TENAGA is decent. The coal part is dirty, declining and until it cleans up, some funds will continue to avoid, notwitstanding a bullish market due to ESG reasons. But it's inflation matching and will always have pricing power. The past 5 years EPS is not looking good, but if history is an indicator, this should improve as it's a quasi monopoly for nearly all of us.

The longer term strategy for this stock is obvious.

Buffett throughout his life is a Master of Position Size. He knows his stock returns extremely well. He knows the base case outcome and the outlier outcomes. He knows how he can fix future stock earnings/returns. He is able to identify stocks with the highest expectancy at the lowest risks and then, size up appropriately. When he finds a truly great deal, he doesn't both to bet small but big. He is the Master of knowing all the risks of a stock.

And honestly, I don't think he will not buy RAPID. This stock has too great a risk that he can't control. It's not to say RAPID can't do well in the future. It's to say along the way, it can also crashmore. So, punting small and not average down is the closest to avoiding the stock.

One advantage of punting very small on speculative stocks, #and# not adding to one's losers = it remains small and doesn't stop your portfolio to make new all time highs again. Today is another day like this. RAPID loses monies but portfolio made new all time highs again. This lesson on Position Sizing is so, so important that nobody talks about it enough. Everyone wants to know what price to enter, what price to exit, but nobody talks about the Art of Position Sizing. Position Size affects most of your returns, not your entries or exits. This is because entries and exits are somewhat random. You got to know your highest expectancy trades and your highest volatility trades and position size appropriately to optimize returns.