Compare BAT 2022 vs 2023 earnings by quarter:

2022 Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 = 17 / 25 / 25 / 21 sen
2023 Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 = 13 / 16 / 19 / ??

First, observe that Q1/Q2/Q3 earnings in 2023 is consistently below 2022. This is about business profits. It has nothing to do with GEG talks, or talks about illicit cigarrettes, etc. Talk is talk and talk is cheap. But profits is cold hard cash that is real and has to do with the business. At the end of the day, shareholders own businesses especially long term. Buffett always say - in the short term, market is a voting machine but in the long term, market is a weighing machine. Short term, price can go up and down due to sentiment. Long term, price goes up or down due to earnings, value, and other numbers.

I focus on the numbers and the long term price charts. I ignore talks which are cheap.

When investing in stocks, the first rule is - are you sure you will beat FD and EPF over 5-10 year period?
If not, better to just park one's monies in FD or EPF.
If one invests in BAT over past 5-10 years thinking it is cheap, under valued, low price over-done, etc. etc. etc., one's returns will under-perform FD and EPF and in this case, one is better off not following BAT or ever heard of BAT before.

For those hoping that BAT will go up past RM10, ask yourself - will BAT EPS hit 85 sen or give DPS as high as 83 sen like in 2020?

If not, it is unlikely that it will touch RM10-11 again.
BAT is too big a stock for anyone to "goreng".

If foreigners come back to Bursa in a significant, then, maybe this could happen but many other stocks will outperform BAT when foreigners comes back to Bursa i.e. we don't need BAT to get superior returns.

@kevin tam, suggest you read past 200-300 comments :-)
BAT didn't fall due to GEG.
It fell due to declining EPS, declining DPS the past 8 years, before GEG talks.
It's a numbers thing.
Price follows EPS and DPS i.e. if both falls, for a business like BAT, its price will fall.

BAT has high dividend yields and that kinda cushion some of the price falls for those who bought in 2020.
However, consider that my portfolio (including cash) since 2020 has returned 8% per annum since then.
You won't do too badly (maybe small negative total returns including dividends) but consider the opportunity costs, because there are many better stocks out there.

Today, GTRONIC makes +5.81% and brings my total portfolio to new all time high today ... don't need to be stubborn with BAT.

For those who don't read past 200-300 comments, here's a rehash of BAT EPS, DPS since 2015.

Year / EPS / DPS
2015 / 318 sen / 312 sen
2016 / 253 sen / 232 sen
2017 / 173 sen / 169 sen
2018 / 164 sen / 155 sen
2019 / 121 sen / 118 sen
2020 / 85 sen / 83 sen
2021 / 100 sen / 98 sen
2022 / 92 sen / 88 sen

My prediction for 2023: EPS = 67-70 sen (i.e. new all time low EPS, not due to GEG at all but it's poor business characteristics). DPS ~ 66-69 sen (i.e. new all time low DPS, not due to GEG at all but its poor business characteristics).

As for what the government will / will not do with illicit cigarettes - I'm a numbers guy and when the facts show declining EPS and declining DPS ... all the excuses about what government do / don't do doesn't really matter. Next year, its EPS and DPS does not care at all about what the government will do / don't do.

If EPS and DPS continues to decline to new lows, its price will follow to new lows. To me, it's just maths.

LIIHEN gives very nice dividends every quarter indeed! Plus capital gains too. Price action is promising today.

GTRONIC +5.81%. Thank-you GTRONIC for helping make my portfolio to reach new all time high again today! This month is a record month - my portfolio made all time high 8 days, each day closed higher than the previous day!

HEVEA +4.29%. Nice. Looks like it wants to go up, but plenty of resistance ... Still good enough to make my portfolio rise to all time high again. That's 3 times this week!

Because I have so many dividend stocks, and a lot of experience on dividend stocks, I learn to distinguish good dividend stocks vs poor dividend stocks.

I give you an example of my loss in ARREIT. This is a classic example of a poor dividend stock. It's no different than BAT. As observatory mentioned, poor dividend stocks always show high dividend yield.

The problem with too high dividend yield is that its price falls much more than the high dividend yield.
Dividend yield may be say 8%-10% per annum. On paper looks nice.
But hold them long enough, you lose more in price falls.
ARREIT is like that to me.
I learnt and "cut loss" on BAT 2 months ago to avoid making the same mistake.

How do you distinguish between a good dividend stock vs a poor dividend stock?

Over time, I have learnt many methods.
Ironically, the most reliable method is still technical analysis, even though I am a strong business analyst and can analyze balance sheets, Income statements, Annual reports, Quarterly reports and other reports very fast.

I have over 3 decades experience in this line. I made numerous mistakes that cost monies too.

My portfolio has many losses. BAT, ARREIT.
Despite those losses, the key is not to throw good money after bad.
Instead, invest in good stocks more.
Let your winners run.
Keep your losses small (by not averaging down on losing stocks).
In time, your portfolio will keep making new highs.
Good dividend stocks (not to be confused with High dividend stocks) helps me a lot.

I am a dividend investor mostly.
I am also a speculative trader, but trade a small portion only.

Majority of my gains come from dividends.
Last month, 16 stocks paid me dividends.
This month is a low dividend month, so far only 3 paid dividends.

Good dividend stocks perform better than FD and depending, over time, if it grows, can be better than EPF.
FD and EPF always make all time highs regularly.
My goal is a modest one - to beat FD and EPF by a margin. It also happens, the strategy beats KLCI the past few years, due to KLCI poor price performance.

Personally, I sold off BAT 2 months ago.
Since then, my portfolio made all time highs a dozen times.
This week, my portfolio made all time highs yesterday, and it made a new higher all time high today.
That's because I don't have BAT poor performance to drag my portfolio returns.

If you read my comments in other stocks (click my user handle and read my comments), you'll see that last week, my portfolio made all time highs 4 days. This means in this last 2 week, my portfolio keep making new highs 6 different days already.

A strong part of the reason is because I don't have BAT to drag my portfolio returns down.

@Unfair, it's not about talking down or talking up stocks.
Many people talk up BAT for many years, but price keep falling past 8-9 years.

My advise is to ignore the "talk up" or "talk down" - in financial markets, for a large cap stock like BAT - such talk (either up or down) has nil long term impact. It's price fell past 8 years, whether we talk up or talk down.

@observatory, well explained.
BAT made new low 9.09 (not positive), but closed above at 9.11. Bulls trying hard not to lose the support short term, but long term downtrend still intact (unfortunately for bulls).
When price stays in tight bands for a long time (e.g. several weeks), then, risk and reward increases for next sharp move. Majority odds is to follow the broader trend.

HUPSENG +5.77% today, nice. Thanks to HUPSENG, my portfolio made new all time high again today - that's twice ALL TIME HIGH this week!

I like GENTING's price action today. I am overweighted near 4.16, 4.12 and 4.07. It has broken the downtrend line established since this year's high early this year, so, cannot complain. However, there's a lot of resistance from here. E.g. next main one around previous swing high near 4.57. I expect many players will be queueing to sell near there, given the chart structure ... some will also queue to sell near 4.50 round number resistance. Plus market has been lacklustre where strong moves like today tend to invite sellers.

Let's see how GENTING do this and next week.

Not sure if it can get to 2.10 or 2.18 but if it crosses above this with volume, it can go higher.
Will be interesting to see how large a % gain I can get here if I'll let it run this time ... (but depends on price action too).

+4.44% today. Can't complain. This is a small trading stock for me.
Bought 1.23 @ 29/6/22.
Sold 2.04 @ 27/2/23.
Bought 1.30 @ 24/5/23.
Now holding on at 1.88.

Can't complain.

Helps cover some of the red moves on the other parts of my portfolio, to allow my portfolio to hit all time new high again today! Thanks ANNJOO and thanks CSCSTEL!

Nice move today. +5.12%, with nice volume. Majority odds swing low has been printed on 27/10.
There's a gap fill near 1.45. Very ambitious and minority odds it'll get there this year with KLCI markets in zig zag mode. But if KLCI can do a strong run for several weeks, then, odds improve. Unfortunately, I didn't manage to get my standard position, the position size is smaller than target, but still nice to see my holdings rise by 5.17% today.

Thanks to ANNJOO, my portfolio made a new all time high again today! I think many players with exposures should do well too as KLCI printed +15.12 points. Hope everyone is happy!

Collected ANNJOO at 1.08, after selling at 1.26 - paid myself a gross dividend of 18 sen :-).
Nice price action today. Good price rise, good volume. Looks like majority odds swing low is printed. Now, just ride ...

But honestly, as value investors, when price fell from RM77 down to RM22, that's nearly 70%+ fall ... and would attract attention.

But once we look at EPS fall, or Net Profit fall, it's quite proportional really ... in the old days excluding one-offs, it feels like max Net Profit may have been around RM150 million (?) and now, we are looking at say RM43 million, which is also similar fall i.e. value today is still about the same as value in the old days, except PPE in the old days were smaller and deliver higher earnings?

There is a scenario where this higher PPE would pay off - if Malaysia market needs for dairy exploded - then that spare capacity could be put into production faster than competitors i.e. DLADY in that scenario would have a competitive advantage ... but it begs the question ... what is the catalyst that would push Malaysia market needs for dairy product to rise faster in 2024 that it couldn't do in 2023, given the COVID pandemic, the lock-down are old news already ? 🤔🤔🤔

The Dividend payout ratio is also different ... in the first phase, paying out 100% of its earnings, sometimes more, is done to support dividends. But in the last few years, management no longer able to payout close to 100% because of that massive capital commitment.

The new CEO and the new Chairperson during the 2nd phase recently doesn't do themselves a favor in the annual report to lament about past 3 years milk industry ... especially when the company has committed to a huge capital commitment ... that doesn't project confidence to the market that their massive capital commitment is the right decision ...

I mean ... if management spend so much on capital commitment .. and not yet anywhere near over ... and management and Board complains about market supply demand volatility ... what does it tell you? Will you have confidence in such management, especially when they have been embarking on such huge capital commitment, to kill their dividend policy?

That is very hard for me to consider investing for dividends ... when it's unclear when they'll finish their capital spending ... and not so clear to me yet when their future earnings will start to rise again (ignoring one-offs). But to be honest, I haven't researched enough - all these are just first thoughts and so, comments welcomed ...

Since 2013 to 2019 inclusive, the company's Net Profit ranges from 109 million to 149 million. This is very good profitability relative to assets deployed.

From 2020 onwards, ignoring one time gains spike, this company's earnings has dropped to a paltry 40+ million in 2022. This is coming from huge asset base ... especially that massive capital commitment of - is it like 500 million? - if so, that maths doesn't make financial sense ... and what causes the huge decline?

This is why Mr Market is saying it's 2 different companies - pre 2019 vs post 2019. Is Mr market wrong? 🤔🤔🤔. Because if Mr Market is right ... it's not going to fit my dividend needs ...

Can't help thinking about its long term monthly chart price action since 2000.
It feels like 2 different companies.
First company in fantastic growth phase from 2000 to 2018. 18 years of nice growth.
Second phase from 2018 down to 2023. Massive decline.
I also note many of its management team and CEO joins just after the peak. And they look young. And obviously very aggressive ... I wonder how this newer management team compares with the old ones from 2000 to 2018 ... or has there been a change in strategic direction?
Whatever it is - price charts say - this is 2 very different company.

I think I'll pass, mainly because its Dividend Yield is too low for me.
My priority is at least 4%+ dividend yield.
But it's capital commitment is too high still.
Likely its Net Cash position will drop to introduce borrowings in the coming year or two?
So, it's unlikely to increase dividends.
That's for me means an entry now is still a bit too early.
I might miss the bottom.
That's okay as I already have nearly 50 different stocks.

In comparison to Dutch Lady Malaysia's dairy products, which are derived from cow's milk, plant-based alternatives typically use plant sources such as:

Soy: Soy milk is a popular alternative to cow's milk. It is made by soaking and grinding soybeans and has a similar protein content to cow's milk.

Almond: Almond milk is made by blending almonds with water and straining the mixture. It has a slightly nutty flavor and is often fortified with vitamins and minerals.

Oat: Oat milk is made from soaked oats blended with water and strained. It has a creamy texture and is often favored for its sustainability and creamy consistency.

Coconut: Coconut milk is made from the grated meat of mature coconuts blended with water. It has a rich, creamy texture and a distinct coconut flavor.

Rice: Rice milk is made from milled rice and water. It tends to be thinner and slightly sweeter compared to other plant-based milks.

Cashew: Cashew milk is made by blending cashews with water. It has a creamy texture and a mildly sweet taste.

Plant-based alternatives can also be used to create non-dairy versions of yogurt, cheese, ice cream, and butter. These products are formulated using plant-based ingredients like nuts, seeds, legumes, and grains, mimicking the taste and texture of their dairy counterparts.

In contrast, Dutch Lady Malaysia's products primarily consist of dairy-based offerings such as fresh milk, flavored milk, yogurt, and other dairy derivatives derived from cow's milk.

The choice between Dutch Lady's dairy products and plant-based alternatives typically depends on individual preferences, dietary restrictions, nutritional requirements, and lifestyle choices. Both options offer distinct nutritional profiles and cater to different consumer needs within the broader market.

My personal experience in supermarkets is that honestly - they all look the same to me. I don't gravitate to any one particular brand, as DLady, F&N Dairies, Anlene, Farm Fresh, Emborg all feels the same to me ... after all, it's dairy products ... but I do find myself wondering about other alternatives like there are so many different variety of plant based milk for example ...

My good chat friend tells me this about DLADY's competitors:

As of my last update in January 2022, Dutch Lady faces competition from several major companies in the Malaysian dairy market. Some of the primary competitors of Dutch Lady in Malaysia include:

F&N Dairies: Fraser & Neave Holdings Berhad (F&N) operates in the dairy segment through its subsidiary, F&N Dairies. They offer a range of dairy products, including condensed milk, evaporated milk, and dairy beverages, competing directly with Dutch Lady.

Anlene (Fonterra Brands): Anlene, a brand owned by Fonterra Brands, is known for its products focused on bone health and nutrition. They offer milk-based products targeting consumers concerned about bone strength and overall health.

Farm Fresh: Farm Fresh is a Malaysian dairy company known for its fresh milk products. They have gained popularity for their locally sourced, high-quality fresh milk.

Emborg: Emborg offers a variety of dairy products, including cheeses, butter, and milk. While it's a Danish brand, it competes in the Malaysian market with its range of dairy offerings.

Other Local and International Brands: In addition to these major competitors, there are various local and international brands offering dairy products in Malaysia, competing in segments such as flavored milk, yogurt, cheese, and other dairy-based items.

Competition in the Malaysian dairy market is robust, with companies vying for market share by introducing new products, focusing on product quality, marketing strategies, and addressing consumer demands for health-focused, convenient, and innovative dairy offerings.

-----

Bottom line is I really don't know much about its competitors ...

My gut feel is no rush ... I mean, this stock price has fallen from RM77 down to RM22 over past 5 years. All the while while production capability was much smaller when price is at RM77 ... so, if this pays off, it should hit past RM77 if all else is equal ... but it is extremely unlikely suggesting that inside, something fundamentally may have been broken for such a huge fall ... is it a simple question of over-ambitious expansion? Or a lifetime opportunity for someone with a 10-20 year outlook? That's an extremely long time today in the digital world where alternatives are now sprouting much faster than any time before ...

This company only operates on 1 segment and betting everything in this segment ... high risk in this sense as food is changing ... question is can it grow to double, triple, quadruple demand for its product over the same period, or will it just be white elephant sitting mostly doing nothing under-utilized and not giving returns to shareholders? Or will they ramp up product to increase supplies and lower margins, to trigger competitors to lower prices too and thus reducing their advantages of higher production capabilities over next few years?

Maybe that's what market is concerned about?

Just glanced at the Company's past 2 years annual reports and the last quarterly reports.
The thing that strikes me is the rapid depletion of cash - this company balance sheet is healthy but in just one year, its cash balance has dropped from RM105m down to RM61m. Whereas the value of the PPE rise by roughly similar order of magnitude. It's capital commitment is still quite substantial.
As at
30/06/23
RM’000
As at
30/06/22
RM’000
Authorised but not contracted for 219,957 ... 218,957
Contracted but not provided for 139,331 ... 232,769

So, 139 million is still much larger than its cash balance, suggesting that this company at some point is going to kill its cash holdings and turn into a net debt company ... I guess Mr Market is afraid this might be another LCTITAN ... previously a beautiful Net Cash company that turned into a massive debt profile with terrible turnaround.

I guess the jury is still out, if this investment is too big or not ... have to sleep over it ..

I chat with recent ChatGPT about the historical supply demand imbalance in Malaysia over the past 10 years. ChatGPT qualifies that its data is only good until Jan 2022 but it has this to say:

Several factors may have influenced the supply-demand balance:

Domestic Production: Malaysia has been working on boosting its domestic dairy production. However, the country faces limitations due to land availability and climate constraints for large-scale dairy farming, leading to a dependency on imports for various dairy products.

Imported Dairy Products: Malaysia relies significantly on imported dairy products to meet consumer demand, which sometimes fluctuates based on global market conditions, currency exchange rates, and trade agreements.

Demand Fluctuations: Demand for specific dairy products might fluctuate due to changing consumer preferences, health trends, or economic conditions, influencing whether supply outstrips demand or vice versa.

Government Policies and Trade Agreements: Policies related to import quotas, tariffs, or trade agreements might also affect the supply-demand dynamics of dairy products in Malaysia.

For nearly 2.5 years (2020-2022) it tried to form a base at 32-34 but failed to hold ... this kind of price action is not good at all. So, now it tries to form a base at 22.5 ... a much lower price and normally, this kind of attempt has decent chance of being successful. However, it doesn't look like there's a catalyst to spur a price rise yet? Maybe that new production capability but it's also old news ...

And then, there's the threat of lab grown dairy ... I don't know if DLADY is at the forefront of this industry but somehow, operating in Malaysia, it doesn't seem like the country to lead the world in this area ...

With biomedicine on the exponential rise ... perhaps the future is more unclear than ever for the dairy industry ... this one is probably a mega-trend ... but I'm not knowledgeable enough in this area.

Technical wise, looking at past 20 year charts, the stock price is still downtrending the past 5 years ... it is trying to form a base at around 22.5 ... so hard to read these kind of charts ... but if the Weekly RSI can get to oversold again and price doesn't make new price lows and able to hold swing low of RM20.22, then, I could be a buyer but I need to see its price action first over the next 12 months or so ... I feel like keying in a GTC Buy order at 20.50 say but that's an insult to the market and likely very low odds of being filled the next 1-2 months because it looks like it doesn't want to go anywhere for next few months ???

I saw someone posts that DLady's margins is expected to improve, but based on past 10 years, its margins look like it is declining, so, playing devil's advocate, very interested to learn why would that long term trend suddenly change this year or next year? If not mistaken, production capacity is expanded, so, supply looks to rise, so, why would margins improve? On what basis? Some one mention past 3 years but what about past 10 year decline in margins? ... I could be wrong ...

Just had a quick glance on its past 10 years EPS and Net Profit in its entirity. Over the past 10 years or so, revenues has clearly grown but its Net Profit has declined - that's not necessarily a good sign and 10 year trends are not so easy to ignore. I'm a newbie, but I will want to see some pretty strong assurances that Net Profit can grow again in the future. If Net Profit is stable (and based on history, that's a good result), the dividend yield of 2%-2.5% is just not attractive enough for me. I need 4% or the prospect of seeing 4% in say 1-2 years time ... production capability is one thing but if it means bigger revenue at even lower profit margin, I'm not too sure this is a business with a real moat ... what might convince me is why would dairy demand in the future would grow when past 10 years, it hasn't really grown (revenue grows, but margin drops faster that net result is lower ...) - I think that's the hard question to answer.

Price wise, the price has fallen a lot ... so, maybe it's lower risk now than the past 5 years .. but I still can't convince myself to pull the trigger when DY is only 2%-2.5% and global growth market for dairy products looks mature to me, and competitors still haven't matured yet???

Well, this stock dividend yield is a bit too low for my liking ... it's a pity because it used to be a great company.

I haven't researched enough about the company but the dairy products market is a mature market, and I'm not sure (and probably someone should research more into this segment) but I saw somewhere that global dairy market is expected to only grow by 1% per annum over say next decade or so ... it feels like a mature market to me.

Malaysia could be different, as our population is perhaps younger but still not that young anymore compared to say faster growing population countries.

Worrying for me is the trend in the past 10 years on other milk alternatives - I read somewhere this segment is growing much faster than past 10 years ... and likely their future growth will be faster than milk ... I hate the plant milks, but millions of people disagree with me ... it's not what I like that's important - it's what the market likes.

I need my stocks to pay dividend yields higher than the best FD rates out there ... at least 4% per annum yield, before I get interested. It is quite unlikely, but if the global growth in future isn't there, and whilst the production capacity can grow 2x 4x, I need some more convincing that the market can absorb this kind of long term production growth plan, when more and more alternatives to dairy products are coming in with faster historical growth rates in the past compared to dairy ...

I'm a newbie in this industry to be honest.

The stock long term history is important to me. If you don't have that history, then, you need to be a much more skillful trader. If you have its long term history, then, you can start to analyze and see comparatively how good a business it has over others and can roughly rank them and roughly get a sense on when and what price it is a good buy. So many players these days learn technical analysis, so, you just have to know them too but that's only micro timing. Being in the right boat around roughly the right time makes huge difference. If you buy during the low of a bull market, it doesn't really matter what you buy.

Today's KLCI has taken a beating for many many years ... so, a low price to buy a great business at fair price, or buy a fair business at low price (but this one have to let go when have a profit) are good odds if you know what to do ... what worries me actually is when KLCI then does a bull run over many years in the future ... in some ways, I do better during zig zag markets that trend down slightly ... my strategy seems to work best here. I will under-perform when market does a straight line up bull run - then, my strategy will underperform the market but still beat FD and EPF hands down in this type of market.

Another good solid type of stocks that will beat FD and EPF is REITS. My position is smaller than my target because my entry into REITS was a late one, only in past couple years. And I am too conservative to tie up my capital here because the good REIT prices is hard to enter at cheap price.

But I am very patient. I can wait for many years to get a good entry. So far I have entries in 9 REITS but no major positions in them. My total REIT exposure can be higher, but I have lots of cash waiting to deploy in them at low prices. My goal with REITS is to get them at a good price, good Dividend Yield on cost that will become my annuity to provide me with regular growing income over my lifetime.

My target is to get DY that is at least double the best FD rates out there and I need some relatively high certainty that this will happen in say the first 3 years of accumulation. So, it's price movements matters to me too, not just the current dividend yield - current figures are almost always meaningless to me, if there's no long term context behind them, especially past 20 year price charts.

And for the record, I never believe in concentration, unlike Uncle Warren. I start from the position that in financial markets, there are too many smarter people working behind the scenes who controls monies and they are way, way way smarter than me. They have access to tools far, far, far more advanced than me. In other words, in terms of skills, they are way superior than me.

So, all I have to do is not lose monies long term. Mr Market volatility doesn't count. So, I own nearly 50 different stocks, including HEIM and CARLSBG. I have others that you can reasonably predict ... MAYBANK. PBBANK. And 40+ others. And I never chase them. I wait for the dip. Sometimes, I don't get enough. I originally started aiming for just 20 stocks with 5% holdings. But I never get to 5%. Sometimes 1.5%, sometimes 2% and then price runs up before I can accumulate. Then, I move on to other stocks. And sometimes, I am wrong - I have many losses but they are small and I have many winners where winners offsets losses and allow me to beat KLCI by 5-7% per annum. How can you lose if you buy these great stocks at low prices? You can only lose if you bet big on stocks like BAT that is downtrending. You can only lose if you keep averaging down on your losers. There are so many other good bets out there and Mr Market always give you an opportunity to buy them every quarter or every 6 months or every year, if you expand your universe.

Many silent people here knows what I mean.

Whereas consider putting monies into FD. No chance of loss. Every month, your portfolio makes NEW HIGHS! Almost certainty. Such an easy way to make NEW HIGHS every single month. And so much enjoyable too. FD, EPF, they have good characteristics.

So, if you trade stocks, you want a strategy similar to this, but with better parameters. But you have to deal with Mr Market. So, Warren Buffett's way is probably the surest way ... find great businesses, stocks that is worth a lot more than Mr Market is valuing them ... especially stocks that has a competitive edge that is better than BAT.

To give you one example of a stock I am eyeing, it's HEIM. You got to look at its stock price chart 20 years ... then, you'll see a long term uptrend pattern and it is dipping towards its long term uptrend line. In other words, you want to buy during that "small" dip, in a broader uptrend.

Fundamentally, you want to be looking at its business. Is it a good business to own? Is it in a growing market or a steady market? Is it a market where there's competitors coming up with new ways to steal your share? (BAT fails here, due to cigarette alternatives where it hasn't got a competitive advantage).

With Heineken, it's moat is a lot, lot better than BAT.

Heineken, Carlsberg is also sin industry - I don't put any judgement, everyone's an adult who makes his/her own decision ... but I observe that this market is very hard to have a "Generational End game" unlike BAT.

So, a lot of the professional long term investors - if they like sin stocks - will definitely favor HEIM, CARLSBG than BAT.

Again, this one is a no brainer. 5, 10, 15 years from now, you'll definitely prefer one over the other.

And I notice, some stocks have "animal spirits". Like BAT, which is a market leader in cigarettes dying a slow death. It's animal spirit is like a "boa constrictor". Once it gets hold of you and once you have a paper loss, it will slowly squeeze you to death very slowly ... takes months, and years, ... giving you small hope of an exit at a small gain ... but you reject ... then, gives you a small hope of a breakeven exit ... but you reject ... and then gives you a hope to exit at a small loss ... but you reject ... and eventually, one day, you realize, you have no chance to exit at a small loss ...

This kind of chart pattern is what I call a "boa constrictor". It will slowly squeeze you to death ... especially, if you average down and make yourself fat for this animal to eat you ...

Hence, some stocks with this kind of animal spirit - better to not do DCA ... else, you are just fattening yourself to be squeezed to slow death with lousy portfolio returns over this year, next year, the following year etc. It's a sure recipee to terrible portfolio returns over next 5 years.

Now at 9.10, the critical test is RM9. Here, I really don't know what the price will do. The obvious question is - will RM9 hold and everyone is asking this question. I think there's 55% it will hold, 45% it will not hold on first attack. However, doesn't mean the attack is going to fail. Price at this type likes to do strange patterns.

If you have no position and thinking of going long, I would wait a small position at 9.01 - and then watch to see what it will do at lower prices. And in a few months time, when price goes back up again, it will retest the previous lower low of 9.15 say half the time. The other remaining times, RM9 may hold and bounce back up but unlike to get to 9.6 or thereabouts usually ...

So, technical analysis is just probabilities, based on price history that likes to sometimes repeat, but often it doesn't like to repeat but alternative and sometimes just doesn't follow any rules. If you can't live in VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Change and Ambiguity), then, Technical Analysis is not for you. As I get older, I prefer greater certainty than VUCA and if it means lower returns, but always beating FD and EPF, it's extremely good for me at my age.

The simple technical analysis is not something you need to learn from books or from "gurus". It's just common sense. Business wise, over the past 8 years, this is a sunset stock. EPS declines massively. DPS declines massively. Then, you have confirmation of a downtrend that is intact - just look at the price chart 20 years ago 6 feet away and even a 6 year old child can tell you it is downtrending.

Then, coupled with a "lower high" - 9.83 - it's already telling you it has no strength to go up. Which means, as Jesse Livermore says ... the path of lesser resistance is down ... if he was around, he would be shorting BAT after it fails to go higher than 9.83 ... he would be taking loans, borrowing and short the hell out of BAT.

I'm too old to be this kind of trader. I'll just step aside and watch ... 😁

3 weeks ago, I posted this: "If BAT doesn't go above 9.83 in next 2 weeks, we will definitely see lower low than 9.14 in the next 2 months."

Since it didn't go above 9.83, the next 3 weeks, price fell below 9.15. Today's close is 9.10, as I predicted.

These are simple technical analysis that keeps repeating themselves majority of the times. Not all the time, but when it happens, I'm not surprised.

@fortunefire, yes, you are right - this company will like post a loss by FYE2023, as H1/2023 loss posted was -6.33 sen/share. It would be hard to see H2/2023 EPS becoming greater than 6.33 sen, i.e. will likely post a loss 2 quarterly report from now.

Nevertheless, chart wise, price gains on rising volume is normally regarded as a bullish trend. Many resistance levels coming up. Retailers may think this stock is not worth owning because it will be loss making this year, but someone with volume thinks otherwise. The only question mark is - is this hidden buyer planning to do something with this company, or is this just someone trying to create excitement?

Personally, I am selling more into strength, but very slowly ... it's a GTC order already pre-set, so, market makes know where I'm queueing to sell which I'm happy to disclose because I am just but one trader.

In current market conditions, it makes sense to buy low, sell on strength. Don't hope for a huge run - out of 10 stocks, you'll be pleased to sell into strength 9 times out of 10 and there will be that 1 time where you wished you didn't sell because it shoots up so high, but I don't think MALAKOF belongs to that 1 out of 10 times.

PS2. I am selling into strength, as the Dividend Yield has shrunk as price rises.

@newbie9893 - the answer to your question 5 days ago is ... "4 trading days ago" ... a day after your question. Great predictive question!

PS. My average cost for MALAKOF is 59.8 sen. It was in my Top 15% largest holdings.

With RHB Invest giving trading advice and saying Resistance is 68 sen and 70 sen, what more can I say ... the price now have majority chance of exceeding 70 sen! 😂. If RHB Invest stayed quiet, I would have said minority chance! IB wants you to sell ... so ... SELL! 😂

@BudiLee, the stocks with the highest dividend yields like BAT doesn't actually give decent total returns, compared to MAYBANK.

Consider past 5 years. BAT price lost 75%, MAYBANK price lost 1.8%. However MAYBANK Total Return is very decent, still beating EPF rate, due to consistent Dividend Yield. Whereas BAT Total Returns, after its "higher dividends" is still an astounding massive loss!

I have observed that when the Dividend Yield is too high, the stock Total Returns are actually not that great - often it is negative because the Price loss offsets the dividends. Get 9% dividend but lost 18% in Price.

Whereas mid dividend stocks like APOLLO, gives safe, nice, excellent Total Returns with good dividend yields too. Over past 5 years, Price gains is around 24% and coupled with solid 5% dividend yield per annum gives returns that easily beat EPF consistently.

These stocks mentioned are not necessarily Buys today, but they are good to buy when price is depressed, when nobody wants them.

Thank-you TALIWRK! On 20/10, I added at 79 sen. Today, my queue to sell part of this purchase was executed at 86 sen! THANK-YOU for contributing to make my portfolio hit a new high again today! That's 4 consecutive days of portfolio new high!

Thank you HUPSENG! For making my portfolio new high again today. That's 4 consecutive days of New Portfolio Highs! What an amazing week!