MOBA, you are right on the spot on BAT. The longer one owns BAT, the bigger the loss as the chart trend downwards. The more one averages down on BAT and position size bigger, the bigger the cumulative $ loss. It's 100% maths.

Still, there's a short term 50/50 setup that is good to cure boredom as we don't do anything to our winning rising positions. So, I took a first entry short term trade at 8.5 before it went ex-div, and plan to dispose when it gets to around 8.8-8.9 or 9 or higher depending ... I blogged on it here.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-06-09-story-h-159761967-BAT_trading_update

For RAPID lovers - https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-06-09-story-h-159762025-RAPID_trading_update

@speakup, I prefer log charts, instead of traditional linear charts, so that every doubling is equidistant.
I use price charts instead of adjusted with dividends, to measure the worth of a company at any point in time - meaning monies paid out is no longer part of the company's worth.
No right or wrong, just know your reasons and how you interpret.

My GTC Limit Buy order at 4.06 was filled. It lowered my average buy price to 4.12. The stock is now my 2nd largest holding after MAYBANK by market value, and forms 3.7% of my highly diversified portfolio comprising of 40 stocks with dividend yield on cost > 3% p.a. with 13 other stocks for short/mid/longer term trading positions. My median position size is around 2% of portfolio, so, 3.7% is quite a significant weighting, almost doubling the median position size. This is a long term hold for me, the play is to collect a growing dividend income in the coming years. With 19 sen annual dividend, at an average cost of 4.12, the dividend yield on cost is 4.61% which beats FD handsomely, and should this grow by 5% per annum over the next 14 years, we can expect the dividend yield on cost to rise to over 9% per annum. Nice long term position.

It couldn't go below 0.745 the past 5 days, when there was majority odds of falling towards 0.70 a week ago. This is bullish price action. Now the path of least resistance is up. That's the thing about Technical Analysis - unlike fundamentals which hardly changed in 3 months, TA can change its mind very quickly, sometimes, as quick as a day and sometimes changes its mind many times over the course of a quarter. Both has its pros and cons. Regardless, nothing to do unless you are a price speculator who buys high hoping to sell higher (and takes a risk of being stopped out). The higher low past week provides a bullish bias.

Strong weekly close at new high at 2.04, with higher volume than last week's. Nice. Thank-you Mr Market!

Wow. 5.39 high so far and still solid. Can't do anything with current holdings, just keep holding. In the past IB claimed unclear, peak earnings etc to entice selling but anyone who followed to sell will be regretting. This company turned around from high net debt to positive net cash by FYE 2018. And the Net Cash keeps growing and growing. Management has done a great job so far. Just this quarter alone, net cash grew by 25 million in 1 quarter, or 100m expected if annualized. The last 12 months earnings is reported to be 86 sen. Total dividends paid out last year including special dividends is only 39 sen. At 39 sen, the dividend yield when divide by my cost price of 3.50 is already 11% dividend yield on cost i.e. I will never sell this company as long as its fundamentals remain intact as there is no where else that I can deploy that money that pays me such a high dividend yield. Best to do nothing and just enjoy the ride. Thank-you Mr Market!

@dompeilee, is that because your net worth has increased more than 38X since '14-'16? 😂

A simple fundamental metric I sometimes look at is EPS/RPS, a proxy for Profit Margin (I look at many things, this is just one of many). Using their latest reported FYE:
a. MAYBANK = 77.5 sen / 534 ~ 15%
b. PBBANK = 34.3 sen / 131 ~ 26% (higher than MAYBANK - expected).
c. AMBANK = 56.4 sen / 140 ~ 40%! Too good to be true???
Anyone has any bank comparative insights into the 40% figure?
Will be going overseas for holidays for a fortnight, no time to look closer.
Previously traded using Technical Analysis only on AMBANK (and did decently, catching the buys around 3.26 and selling around 4.12), but now looking harder at the fundamentals especially after the 1MDB one-time massive billion $ provisions at FYE2021, for longer term holdings till end of bull market.
I am considering owning on weakness for these reasons: 1. Additional diversification to my already well diversified portfolio. 2. Wanting to tilt slightly to a higher bank sector weighting. 3. Potential to revalue towards P/BV > 1 at peak of bull market. 4. Decent dividend yield. 5. If EPS grows, DPS should grow.
However, I don't yet understand that 40% figure - so, for now, will only consider taking 1/5th of a neutral position (if neutral is around 2.5%-3% capital per position, this one is probably 0.5% or so for now), as still under research and construction - no rush I am patient to spend months building up a position. The long term technical setup is interesting ... but would like to better understand why 40% .... Appreciate if the AMBANK experts can share insights to the 40% vs other major banks ...

@thirai, I try not to trade sound businesses that pays good dividend yields because it's reduces my dividend income. I note you sold during mid 2022 when price ranges around 4.5 +/- 20 sen or so. From say Jun 2022 to today, PBBANK has paid 39 sen of dividends.

If one is an average trader who sold at 4.50 and lost out on 39 sen dividend, the same Buy and Hold investor now sees his average cost reducing from 4.50 in mid 2022, to 4.11 today. Additionally, he didn't incur sell commissions and didn't incur buy commissions, which is around 4-5 sen. Therefore the trader who sold at 4.50 will need price to fall back down to around 4.06 and buy back, when doing this, he's just neutral compared to the Buy and Hold investor.

Meaning, the longer one is away from markets and as PBBANK keeps paying dividends, the average cost keeps coming down to due receipts of dividends.

I do have a few trading stocks, where typically, they don't pay dividends but are cyclicals, with much larger price volatility and win bigger %s. For high dividend yield stocks like MAYBANK, or good dividend yield stocks like PBBANK, I don't trade them.

@mesoan, net income is important. Total EPS also important. Growth since peak EPS CAGR is only 3.5%. From 2014-2018, it's higher at 5.5%, so, it slowed down but still growing. I would rate C+ or B- - it's above average, but not spectacular, and from banks, we should not expect spectacular growth - otherwise, that is likely to mean the bank takes a very risky approach. What you want from banks is that long term steady growth that beats inflation, beats GDP growth, and I think better than 50/50 odds PBBANK can continue to do that over the next decade or two. The other thing from banks that we expect is long term resilience in earnings. That recovery after crashes, corrections and crisis. That banks are here to stay during our lifetime. For me, banks is for investing, not for trading. And it is to buy during market corrections and hold.

Yes, majority odds below 70 sen. 4+ months of goreng is not long enough for operators to collect - still too many strong hands.

On 23 May, price didn't want to go up past 4.24. That's a lower high. So, the path of least resistance for now is down. Today closed 4.13 and should still move down next few days. The key areas are around 4.06 and 4.03. It's definitely an add for me around there, as my position size is still below neutral at 3.1%. For me, this stock is around 4% to be neutral around that price. Below 4, I will add to increase position size to 4.5% and 5% depending on how far it falls. Just current thoughts.

I like PPB grains, agribusiness and consumer segments, I like its management quality, but a little bit undecided about the entry price. The dividend yield is still a bit lower at 14.88, so, I need the entry price to be lower. No position yet, but hope to join soon. I know we're in bull market, but I'm wary that it continues to make lower highs. On monthly candles, the second bottom is not yet in - whilst we hope it prints a higher low, I don't want to rush in yet as there are many other ideas that looks more attractive at this juncture for me. Still, its in my radar screen for sure.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-25-story-h-160749779-PPB_Entering_accumulation_zone_but_should_you_accumulate

Today, reported substantial shareholders buy again.
Today, reported that some operators are suing Perlis State Government for banning, claiming it is outside their jurisdiction. If they win, the stock price will revalue.
SPTOTO 9 sen DPS is around 55% payout ratio i.e. not stretched. 9 sen is close to 6% dividend yield. Downside risks are low. Worst case, if maintain 9 sen forever (unlikely, more likely to grow), it already beats EPF and FD.
Upside is clearly higher odds over next 5, 10 years. That much is clear for me.

I hope they win.

I added at 4.18 today.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-24-story-h-160805766-PBBANK_I_added_at_4_18

It's always easier to own a stock that trends upwards long term - like TENAGA.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-24-story-h-160805767-TENAGA_Is_it_time_to_sell

I looked at the long term chart and here's what I see. Give that article a like if you find these charts helpful.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-24-story-h-160805767-TENAGA_Is_it_time_to_sell#google_vignette

What's amazing is TENAGA is supposed to be a defensive, dividend stock. I did get 4.5% p.a. in dividend yield over the 3 years. But the price gain is 14.5%! Price gain is like 3 times dividend yield! If you asked me 3 years ago what I thought would be a good price gain, I would say equal to dividend yield for a defensive stock like this. This mega cap behaves like a smaller cap!

I first bought TENAGA in Apr 2021, over 3 years ago. Excluding dividends, the TENAGA portfolio CAGR is 14.57%. Including dividends, the CAGR is 19%!!! What an outperformance, who knew TENAGA could outperform on an annual compounded basis to return 19% per annum! Unbelievable!

Thanks to TENAGA and 24 other greens to offset reds, my portfolio also made new all time highs today. That's 12 times this month alone! What an amazing month! Thank-you Mr Market!

HEKTAR closed strongly at 72 sen. Thanks to HEKTAR and 24 other green stocks offsetting red, my portfolio made new all time highs again today - that's 12 times in May alone. What an amazing month. Thank-you HEKTAR and thank-you Mr Market!

ASTRO closed +7.94%. I still have position that I didn't average down to 30 sen and now strongly shoot up. Still, this move, plus 24 other greens offsetting reds, has made my portfolio to hit new all time highs again today. May has been a most amazing month - my portfolio hit new all time highs for 12 days just this month! Surreal! Excellent bull run!

And the thing with Buy and Hold stock like PBBANK, we don't think about selling. All we think about is how high will next year's dividend grows. It's really about buying a growing annuity income that pays dividends for a lifetime. Nobody thinks about selling pensions / annuities that they own. Same with PBBANK - it's about collecting the growing dividends until we die, and then, pass it on to our next of kin. So, the only question is about entry price, but even then, don't get hooked up to it.

As usual, diversify, don't own more than 5%-10% of your portfolio max if you like to see your portfolio continue to make new all time highs regularly.

@Engineer ... I don't know what to say ... all I can say is don't imagine "what if I have held and not sell the past 24 years" ... look forward. 😁

If Warren Buffett management team rates an A, then, I would rate PBBANK management B/B+ and MAYBANK management C+ from a personal perception point of view. A C is good enough for me to invest. Some of these ratings unfortunately cannot be delinked from other factors, so, it's not necessarily a comment about individuals per se, but the broader picture, in so far as their ability to maximize earnings and dividends to shareholders over the long term i.e. over my lifetime. Others with a different time-frame and different priorities will have different ratings.

Notwitstanding age, PBBANK management quality is top class, I would rate clearly higher than management quality in other banks, so, it's not a complaint. However, it would clearly be market leader if there is clear pipeline succession and do what Warren Buffett do which is to name 2 potential successor amongst its current management team where the whole world knows. If PBBANK can do this, the stock will re-rate upwards. However, this is rare in Malaysia, so, don't hold your breath for this to happen. Just saying.

Personally, my only whinge is old management and Board and lack of transparency on pipeline succession. Tan Sri Dato' Tay Ah Lek contributions to PBBANK success is unparalleled, but markets are wary of MD and CEO who is 82 years old. He can be a senior mentor, but if there is a CEO who is 20-25 years young (still late 50s, early 60s) that he can trust, I believe the market will re-rate this stock. However, if you 're in this stock for the long haul, re-rating is not necessary but a bonus. It is okay because with each passing annual and quarterly reports, you will see growing EPS, DPS and NAPS and the stock price grows with it.

New investors into PBBANK will always find PBBANK less attractive than MAYBANK. That's probably true after 3-7 years of holding. However, by the 8-10th year of holding, they will be glad they bought PBBANK and not MAYBANK, due to the dividend and earnings growth effect. If you want to own this for life (e.g. for upcoming retirees wanting to have a growing annuity / dividend payment for life), this is one of the proven stocks.

Don't get too hooked up that 1Q24 earnings are lower than 1Q23 earnings. If you're in for the long term and studied carefully its historical quarterly earnings over the past 10 years, it's not a permanent drop. When prices are temporarily depressed, it's usually a good opportunity to own one of the leading banks in the country and in a sector that is profitable and resilient over the long term. PBBANK will be clearly more profitable than today in 10, 20 years time.

Digibanks provide better short term returns to customers, no question, as there's lots of nice promotions right now. But the million dollar question is - do they have the track record to survive through the crisis, the recessions, the market crashes? Will they be there for the long haul? Only time will tell. Short term, they win market share but long term? With PBBANK, if your goal is to own this stock "forever", then, your eyes is on the next 10, 20 years, not current.

It's true that the Management and the Board is older and it's easy to criticize old, but if you compare against the alternative where the choice is a young and brash management and board, for one of the leading banks, you want the experience to navigate through the financial volatile world. Banking is not about sexy and short-termism. It's about experience and being there for the long haul, "forever" so to speak. Of course, there should be a clear pipeline of younger successors coming up, but IMHO, they should not be too young and should have a balance erring on over 50s for the necessary experience.

To me, PBBANK is a Warren Buffett stock, where our favorite holding period should be "forever". This is because of the bank's long term historical track record of growing its EPS and DPS and as a result its NAPS. Due to its reliable dividend growth, after several years of holding, the Dividend Yield on Cost will have grown significantly, and the best part is it keeps growing thereafter. If you have a choice between putting an FD with Public Bank, or buy its stock, no question, the latter will cause you to be very happy in 10, 20 years time. In the short term, many stocks look attractive compared to PBBANK, but after 10 years, you will be happier that you have bought PBBANBK instead of others.

Those who owned PBBANK 10 years ago will know what I mean.

Here's my fun writeup on RAPID.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-21-story-h-161490928-RAPID_What_s_the_high_probability_play_here_now

Happy to see market recovers.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-20-story-h-161523514-Positioning_your_portfolio_to_hit_new_all_time_highs_Lessons_from_HLIND

I just blogged about CSCSTEL here in i3.
Bought 5 times, haven't sold a single share yet.
Noted Net Cash has grown the past decade and is now around 92 sen.
It has a very high NAPS in a clean balance sheet of RM2.37.
However, because it didn't share its profits as much, the price is still depressed at 1.52.
This company has declared 9.4 sen dividend, hence, Mr Market is now happier.
This company could declare 12 sen at FYE2025 and 15 sen at FYE2026 to lower the NAPS down to around RM2.25 and if it does so, or sends this message, no reason why this stock cannot make a new all time high past RM2.25 and trade at book value.
However, it is unclear if the company wishes to do so or not. You'd think they will, but this depends.
hence, long term investors should not have a full position in this cylical stock.
It is still a cylical business over the long term.

Anyway, thanks to CSCSTEL and other greens to offsets reds, my portfolio has hit new all time high again today, the 10th time this month, as KLCI powers up to new heights! Trust everyone makes monies if they don't average down on their losers. Thank-you Mr Market!

Nice move today and the past 4 months after breakout. My average entry price is 8.94, and with dividends, have lowered that entry price down to 7.96. Haven't sold a single stock yet. Thanks to HLIND and greens offsetting reds, portfolio made new all time high again today, this month is the 10th time. Great bull run, thank-you Mr Market!

Btw, substantial shareholders have been buying the stock several times this month too. They must think SPTOTO has value.

Nice strong close. +7.48%. Thanks to SPTOTO and 24 other greens to offset reds, the portfolio prints a new all time high water mark again for the 10th time this month. Thank-you Mr Market!

I chased and bought MAGNUM at 1.16. This is a Position Trade, as SPTOTO has moved fast but MAGNUM was lagging behind. I took this trade due to FOMO - despite full investing position per plan, still had cash generated from past dividends and so, utilizing a small part of that - it was either that or sit and earn 3+% in FD rates. MAGNUM dividend yield is 5.2%, so, I feel little risk to take this trade.

As it is a trade, there's a stop loss. I am betting that in this bull run, it won't revisit 0.995 and so, if it goes below 0.99, I may cut loss.

I blogged about it here in i3.

In a bull run and a better economy with greater disposable income, the banned states will rethink very hard about the tax revenues lost. It might not be a permanent ban.

I don't think gaming is a sunset industry but very much linked to the economy and disposable income. I also don't think online gaming is a permanent threat but a temporary threat, as the barriers to entry to online gaming is low.

Bull market. Multi-decade low. Business stands to benefit from bull market, better economy, higher disposable income, notwitstanding state bans, online gaming competition and other threats. A few years ago, the fall is justifiable particularly during Covid, but the past 2 years, the fall is over-done, and it's just snapping back up. In a bull run, market participants who haven't got positions a feeling the FOMO effect, and SPTOTO is one of the laggards which haven't moved up much yet, hence, today's big move. My conservative target is around RM2 before FYE2025 and it might get there much sooner.

I am already fully positioned since mid last year near 1.32. My average entry price is 1.53 and including dividends is 1.40. It pays a nice 6% dividend yield and if the economy improves, it can easily continue to hold this high dividend yield, even without any price gains.

I blogged about this stock here with charts.

I previously blogged on CHINWEL near 1.18 where I said it was trading near accumulation zone, and important to get a full position in a diversified portfolio. I just posted an update today.

If you use daily charts for trading, you may find that it's coming up to a potential resistance at 1.34 (which for the record, I ignore because I don't use daily charts, but monthly charts)

You can read about it in my blog here in i3. No rush, not keen for a fast win, more expecting many zig zags both up and down on its way to around 1.68 to 1.8 to 2.3 zone (not sure exactly where but we'll see). It could take longer than 1, 2, 3 years to get there.

kl_guy, that's true and very common.

A week plus ago, Jonathan shared "Strong possibilities of Lctitan testing new low below 95 sen." This is a common TA trader view back then as it was downtrending, so, majority odds.

Subsequently, it printed a higher low of 0.985, 0.5 sen higher than the normal expectation of 0.98, which I mentioned. The fact that it didn't happen means market knows how TA traders thinks and moves ahead of them.

However, because market knows that we know, so, market thinks another step ahead typically. I.e. typically 2 steps ahead of TA traders.

Meaning, 0.985 might not be the low - I would say 30%-40% chance it could revisit this.
Whereas the chance of touching 1.46 within next 12 months, IMHO, is slightly better than 40% chance.
Vast majority of the time, it's going to try to exhaust participants first, before it makes its move.
The odds add up to more than 100% because price revisits same levels many, many times.

Don't be greedy. I've seen fundamental stocks priced at P/NTA = 0.2, then, fall to 0.1, i.e. 50% fall from current price. Nothing is impossible.

(sorry ... a company that is about to be taken over soon will have a completely different price action than what's printed so far ... quite certain there is no take over soon).

Take over soon? Haha ...