TP of 0.42 sen for AAX? I think our analysts already overboard in their negativity. Anyway i don't think price will go lower anymore because the "powerful seller" already achieved objective at this level.

jeht, good info. I hope Mr Tony will be able to help AAX...

Newbie, Definitely use CIMB Itrade. It is very easy and they can convert to dollar and others at very very competitive rates. Also you can pick and choose what currency to use. And always keep that currency, only convert to RM when you want to.
The first share i bought was Intel, wanting to own it for so many years... I bought it at 22 dollars, now it is very good price. USA is the place to be in my view. Low oil price is very good for US economy.
As for trading costs, Itrade is not so cheap also, but i do it due to the convenience. Also i am a long term investor, trading cost is never a concern. if you want to get cheapest costs, you will need to get local brokerage for usa for example.
CIMB open doors to many other markets too... check out http://1-million-dollar-blog.com/invest-overseas-stock-markets-easily/

Goodlah big boy is selling...maybe big boy is sufferring elsewhere, need money lorr...this is to our advantage

Jim, tony sure want that lah..flight to London because he go there often, naik other airlines loorrr

NewbieForever, what i said was that i reached my own exposure limit to a single company in my entire investment portfolio. Like i said, i have 9 tranches at the moment. Actually I already diversify away from Malaysia market.

logitrader, i think it is a very good buy at this level. Ask how many people are going for vacation all that, around you. See what airlines they will pick.

So good the price. Wish can buy more..i have just one more to go...

Fundsgx, So what is your vote? Are you flying Airasia or other airlines?
Hanley? have you voted? Thanks all

Hanley Lim, Not a mistake. I think it is a great buy. Of course i would buy another 9 tranches, but i already ran out of the "allowance" to do so. As i said, i am putting every cent i can into the stocks. Time will prove me right in two quarters from now. Of course everyone have got their own beliefs!

L.C, thanks for sharing, you manyak rajin!

My thesis has not changed for CIMB. The price is very low, i would buy more if i have more you know what. In my view, they will not allow CIMB shares to be this low for too long. If it head any lower, some heavy hand will come in and do the trick to lift it up. You can't merge if your share price is just very low...

I also owned AirAsia, almost the same reason as AAX, but for the short haul part. It is good they are still investing to expand. In my view, Airasia is too slow in itself to expand. They will need to link up the routes quickly, or someone else would do it and grab all market share.

Now we all will need to wait until the 340RM mil warrants on AAX head expire. This will take to march, most of it, some maybe up to June. Anyway, CIMB already upgraded the stock to hold.
Of course they are no seller because it is below the warrants price.
Now i am holding AAX, a total of 9 tranches, and i still can buy one more before i maxed out on ownership limit.

Madcow, there is always ways to make money if you maneuver properly. Good that you have. For me, i will go for long term, but since i hold in tranches, i know exactly when to sell what, and how much i will make on each. I never calculate my holding as "averages". In my view, this will cloud my judgement. My style is, for every trade, it must make a profit on its own, and the trade costs payable on its own.

To Hanley, can you now cast your vote, is it flying AirAsia or something else on the way to somewhere?

Mrpiggy...that's funny! To the hilt!

Newbie, thanks for your vote. How about other people?
Also everyone must remember, paper loss is only on paper, and won't be realized until sold. As of now, just hold so you don't lose.
Think long term. If no AAX, would you like to fly other more expensive airlines? Then have faith in AAX

Grace, it talks about EPS (earnings per share). This is a best estimate method. It is always subject to this and that. The more important part is, asset is more than debt, revenue is more than total expenses and the most and most important part is, the future.
LC said " I take the view that the domestic aviation sector has seen its worst and are now on a recovery phase with competition intensity lessening and lower fuel price going forward"
"- Yields are at an inflection point. With MAS restructuring and the likelihood of its 20-30% capacity cut next year, the upward airfare pricing rationalisation is expected to kick in on a stronger note then. "

So the point here is, stock price is reflecting this fact. So it should be at bottom already barring any other events and the most important event is slated for the future, that is, if they are already turning around now as we speak, the future looks bright. Jump now or it will be too late to get the highest return possible. From my experience, when stocks is turning around, it is already too late to buy in, unless you are for a short haul.

Thanks L.C. We have the same view.

Vin, you have 70% in CIMB, that's too much. Even i have less than 10% of entire investment. Anyway, you will need to hold long term. Don't worry as long as they are still paying div.

Riskmanagement...yes you are right. I agree with you. However i have staying power. I want to buy the stock cheap. If it goes to 50 sen..so what...i still have tons of the stocks. The moment they turn around, i stand to gain. That's the bet. Of course i can lose money, but if i don't buy cheaply and the stock goes up, there is nothing much to be gained. I am always ahead of the curve.
We must distinguish between a company that is going because they have no hope..and one that has one..the stocks may not be so reflective..so this is our chance to make big money..
Actually if possible i want to sapu all the warrants...that one sure can make big money...but my policy is not to buy risky things..

sks1, i met Azran personally. Have you? Sure got bad apples somewhere, but everywhere is also the same. They must work hard to turn things around...be smart..money is not made easily...must work very hard and smart for it..

winwin, yes we know that were the problems. But Airasia under Tony, he will do what is necessary. In fact, he can simply give away traditional airasia route to AAX so that AAX can make money easily. In the grand scheme of things, such problems faced by AAX is solvable. I am very conservative in my stock pickings..
No gov linked...no midcaps and small caps..because they are nasty and can crash and burn in one quarter only...no market dominance..no buy...no dedicated CEO and also a large shareholder..no buy...you see...i am very conservative. But when i see opportunity, i will go for it. People are scared...but when they want to go to Australia or Japan or Korea for example, they will take AAX.
MAS was sinking in its own way, very different than AAX. MAS lost passengers...load factor crashed...of course in a few quarters..finish already..so need gov bail out lah..BTW MAS is also hitting on airasia group..yes using our taxpayers money...it is so unfair..

Now is good price to invest. Buy in tranches

Before we all panic, can we take a short vote here...when you want to fly overseas for vacation, what airlines will you take?

Okdoke, yes i understand that. AAX is one of my largest holding, that's about it. I owned about 20 companies, mostly overseas. Now speaking of diversification, are you 100% in Malaysia? Then you are not well diversified!

687423 ...it is not a sudden things...we can check and predict it. However the goal is still market dominance. They are aiming for that, and spend everything they have..but operating at a loss is never a good thing...shot term ok..but not for long term. I think TF knows this. I bet everything that i have that Q4 AAX will be profitable. I bought all the shares i could.

This yr very exciting for me. Three of my largest companies, all involved in aggressive mergers and buys. Stocks gyrated like hell, Sometimes lost about 40%, but in the end (about 3 quarters), it is back to high level. Have patience if you know the company has a great CEO.

Tough result lah...the loan deposit ratio already reaching max, don't think they can lend at current pace...
But the merger is a good timing. I think it bodes well for long term, and position CIMB to lead and innovate, and link the SEA markets well.
In terms of execution etc, we know cimb is very good at new things and integrations, so this is a big plus.
For those not yet buying, you may want to wait for a little bit, but current price already reflect all the news. But if you want to go for long term, at this level it is pretty good.

OK i have reviewed Airasia result. My conclusion is, malaysia is doing just fine. Thailand and indon result not good, all making loss. India just launched, it is a really big market. I am betting on this one.
Also AA extended loan of USD55 mil to AA philipines..
Overall if they slows down their expansion, then the revenue will be able to catch up..
still profitable..no need to worry..
If anyone of you is worried, ask yourself(or better, your friends) a simple question:
When they go flying, what airlines will they choose?
I think we all know the answer very well. If this is the case, Airasia will still be the big winner.

Guys, TF will be at KL sentral Hilton today to do a new product launch at the ballroom, 245 pm.

Look from different angle. Before your best and heaviest quarter, you must add capacity and new planes in order to grab more marketshare. This is being done. It is like they incur the costs now, to be earned later. I calculated earlier that a simple tweak in the pricing will eliminate the losses, but tony want to fill the planes...better launch the wifi soon..get more income

Now we wait for Airasia to report...then we have the entire picture. Now i standby some more ready to buy..could be AAX or Airasia...

Thanks wisdomboy, that is so true. My gut feeling is the won't do rights issue at this level. Those who decided to hedge so far out should be fired from the company. Anyway, now i own more of a company that is still growing 20% plus..

I added another tranche just now, the price is too good. I sold more shares in other counter. I still have left over from selling those shares, i will wait for tomorrow, if go down more or stays the same, i will pull the trigger

I calculate my purchase in tranches. I have a total of 7 tranches. Prices from 82.5 to 65 sen lorr..i think my ave price is around 77

OK i decided to sell my other shares, and pull the trigger and buy AAX! Plan to hold until end of the year for this purchase

Wahh..so cheap...if only got spare money to buy...Many people are missing the fact that AAX is still growing big in terms of passengers and stealing these passengers from other airlines...For future, like i said, and knowing TF is there, i think this co is an excellent bargain

Passengers carried up 24%, this is excellent.
Number of planes up 41%, this is sign of big expansion mode, sure costs go up, but income will take a while to go up until routes well established.

Fuel is the stupid part, stop hedging! I don't like it and never will. Just manage pricing and fuel surcharge directly. Stop listening to those silly economists and accountants. For currency hedge and swaps, AAX said they terminated the hedges. So good lah.

Costs per seat up 12% while revenue per seat down 16%. This is ok in my opinion and should rebalance in next quarter (unless they keep expanding routes).

After understanding the events during the quarter, in my opinion AAX will need to adjust pricing upward and also to reduces costs. A marginal 6% on each side will do the trick. Since lower fuel prices is not even realized due to hedges, next quarter will be a good bet for better performance.

For long term, i think they are well positioned and I am keeping my share and not selling out. if got more money and if the price is very good, can buy more lah...

Indon is terrible,Malaysia is ok. Only good thing is costs, finally it is inching down by 1.2%. LDR is pretty high, don't think they can continue to give out loan at this pace. We have to wait for indon to grow back, and strongly. So is Thai. Overall, the stock price is a bargain at this level.

Diluted because they gave away free shares, now worth a lot more than before. If you own 2 shares and now 56 shares, walahwehh...that's damn good!
Don't focus too much on the past, EPS or anything to predict the future. Look at the company and what it is doing, and planning to do. This is more important.
This company is a very good investment. They are also expanding into Viet and Indon, two of the most populous country in SEA. Imagine if they can conquer the market there, QL will grow many times over.

littlewhite, 70.5 is indeed really tempting, but if may drop further, maybe we should wait until after the report comes out?

gorengkaki...you are spot on...we are waiting for entry point now..if no AAX..what airline to fly cheaply? So long term...still the bet is on!

littlewhite, warrant is a bet. Above price, you win, below, they lose. There is no win-win in this scenario. Owning shares outright is different. There is a win-win. If the shares are above and you win, where do you think the money must come from? The money must come from their pockets, no other place. They will not like it. Motive is there, but we cannot prove they're acting to depress, or even acting in concert to depress the share price. Therefore this is a mere speculation lah..it's what we do isn't it?

This is list of warrants outstanding..
AAX-CJ RHBIB
AAX-CK AMBANK
AAX-CL CIMB
AAX-CM RHBIB
AAX-CN KIBB
AAX-CO CIMB
AAX-CP MacCapital

If each one issued 100,000,000 warrants at a price say 20 sen, they will collect RM140 mil! This money will come from those who buy the warrants. Since AAX trading volume in a given day is around 11 mil volume of around RM8 mil, of course they have the firepower to push it down if they want to. I don't suggest they do that, but it seems they are more than capable..

For Airasia,
AIRASIAC10 MIBB
AIRASIAC11 CIMB
AIRASIAC12 AMBANK
AIRASIAC13 RHBIB
AIRASIAC14 MacCapital
You can check how much they all collected from the Airasia group...the investors that is...hundreds of millions...they sure never like the share to go higher than what they issue it for...

There is a warrant expiring in Dec at a price of RM1...then another at Jan2015..at a price of 75sen...sure they want to press down as low as possible...at least 65 sen like that..but can they fight the current?

I've seen this trick many times before...overhyped story about something...like Fatsen said..if tak byr salary sure sudah mogok...if bayar late, there could be many reason to it...sometimes bank error ...i've seen that many times too.
Most important is, will AAX continue to carry more passengers and also continue to add routes and planes...these are the things that i am looking for in AAX. We want market dominance, and it will take a long time to bury all those other start ups and wannabe...e.g. tiger air...still being propped by SIA...there are hundreds of other start ups in our area...competition is really fierce..
You know when to bail out from a company...for example when they start talking and acting like MAS...at that time we all should jump lahh...if Tony and co still for fighting it out...all out...then we should all be in

CIMB is only 70% malaysia. The rest foreign. And the foreign is doing poorly, especially indonesia. But long term, indon is an excellent market to be in, and i want cimb to be in.
For Malaysia, long term, there will be normal growth...not 10% growth. But CIMB awal-awal lagi sudah buy other banks..so this is extremely good (but a bit pricey lahh). When CIMB consolidate the entire business later, this is where money can be saved or made. Again, this is years down the road.
On faith, of course they have faith, and they acted accordingly. CIMB already well positioned for long term growth. Check other banks in malaysia, are they well positioned?

theyrenn, premium is mostly for rights issuance, or new shares or thing like that. For warrants/options, premium can mean different things. For example to buy the warrants, you will need to pay for it. Once you have it, now you have the right to buy the shares at the stated price. Then upon expiration, if you are above or below this price, you can make money on it. Like i said, for us retail investors (i hope not many institutional investors here), warrant/options is a big no no, unless you are 101% confident will go the way you think it will.
If you have so much money and don't know where else to put it, then options can be a great play...but if you are investing for your future, better buy the shares outright, can enjoy appreciation and dividends

No market crash will occur since the deflating oil prices occurred. Actually this is the best time to buy stocks, for the next 1 yr. China will go down a bit more, and people will panic, but relax lah. This is expected.

Good info. In my view, AAX will need to be 'the' missing link, in order to link all of AA disparate routes and hubs.

For example, AAX need to link AA hubs of KL and India. The Indian hub will need to be linked to Europe. Connections are key to this model.

Money wise, AAX can easily increase its fares. I don't see that as a problem. The trick is to balance the fares with the costs, to yield a profit. They know that increasing fares will reduce the number of people flying, and in turn will reduce the income.

As long as passengers growth are healthy, the new planes are a boon to AAX. let's continue to watch this part.

BTW why sell the shares if you are going to lose anyway? Hold on to it and wait and see.

Finally, AAX is doing something on the business travelers side. I hope they continue to strongly advertise their strength, for example now you can change you tickets without incurring any costs.

In my view, AAX position and issues is very different than MAS, one we all familiar with. The losses incurred by AAX is low, and they are threading on it carefully. I've followed many companies in China, which are accustomed to high growth rate of say 20% to 30%, quarter upon quarter, for years. Some grew more than 55% in a year. Most of them also making almost zero profits. It is not easy to balance the revenue and the expenses part, to maintain the profit, especially on a low margin game. But once their growth normalize, the profits will return.

How many Malaysian companies are growing the revenue by 20% since last year?