I heard that NookScoot (maybe spelling error) ceased operations? It is another subsidiary of SIA. If it is, it is yet another failure, and surely one less competitor.

tsu99
Relax, don't be disheartened. I don't think you wasted time here, we all benefit from it. Everyone need all views, counter or not. What's important is we respect each other. Some writers like to accuse others, or simply making statements.
So in short, please continue to write and thanks.

AAX and AA is feeder to each other.
Ad Cool, yes, can't wait for the result. Looking on the ground, i think AA group is seeing improvements in passengers etc. I agree the money won't last at this burn rate. Something has to give, either higher prices and more route cancellations, or they actually make more costs savings and thus, turning a profit.

Tornado,
Your analogy is the same with AA/AAX. Lose some in AAX, gain back in AA. So overall still making profit for the entire group.

Maybe you should read what i wrote sometime back. In short, AAX can simply raise its prices. This will eliminate losses immediately. Why wouldn't they do it? Yes, to kill off all competition. The strong would survive.
Isn't AAX providing cheap fares? They can increase it all by 10%, all losses will be gone. So why are you guys too worried? I'm not.
Shareholders need profits, but we don't need it now. If you have no staying power, you will need to invest somewhere else. Or come back when AAX is churning profits.
Regarding one person can bring down the company, this is still true, and always is. It does not matter what kind of control you have in place. If you have too much control, nothing will move in the company. That is not good either. You will need to invest in good people, and care for them. That's about it.

i only drive my car once a week. You don't need the car, you better sell it! Buy stocks. Make it grow. Well, unless you owned the car and has no loan on it anymore...
I think Airasia will be moving up, but tomorrow too early to call.

Maybe, but not so likely. Need some impetus...

SniperElite,
Unfortunately, your hunch as well as your stock pick this time is wrong. Of course i am not working for AAX, so you are totally mistaken. If i am, i will know a lot more isn't? Sure i can reveal a lot more right?
Everything that you wrote refers to the past. My stock pick is based on the future. Although things materializing slowly, it is moving into the right direction. So i will keep it.
Also you like to believe your own assumption, you accused me of working for aax, as well as lying to others here. If you are using this kind of 'lens' you will have a problem in making stock selection.

Don't believe the macquarie....Petronas already issuing bond valued at USD5 billion, thats almost rm20 B. This will pull in money into ringgit from overseas. As i said, ringgit will hold at 3.66 area...

It is a puny decision to give a sell rating based on ROE alone. We are looking at the future, that is all that matter. Do you think CIMB costs would come down, or not?
My real focus is more on revenue growth along asean region. CIMB is best placed in all of the markets, except phillipines.

Good that AAX is thinking Hawaii..outside of the box. Hawaii is a good entry point for US market, lots of US carriers go to Hawaii, it is a good feeder. AAX need to keep trying.
I have faith in the management, i.e. Tony and co.

It is trading at a discount. Thus, it is a reason to buy.

astalavista, you should buy cimb shares. So many reasons to buy. What are the reasons not to buy?

Lucky i went shopping the other day. I think many of us here also followed suit and bought. I bought at around 2.2, which was the target price i will buy. Now, i still think there is room to add..

petvnla
Normally rights issue will cause the price to drop. However for AAX, you should notice that it has dropped from around 0.6 to current levels. Now the rights issue will enter and things will go up from now. It seems that the company is indeed turning around. Also some of the warrants are expiring soon, so the stock really can move up. Any new warrants on AAX betting that it will no go up anytime soon? There are none as far as i know, so nobody dare to bet their money on it. So conclusion is, it is going up.

Make no difference in the long term...just buy when you can CIMB shares. Accumulate over this time. At current level, it is undervalued even at rm7.

I agree lah...this is my thesis too...anyway..now I will wait for another entry point to accumulate

Now this stock already reaches my target price. Today i am going shopping!!!!! Don't miss this great opportunity to own AA. Today i will be a shareholder again.

The oil play is still playing out. After another few quarters, prices AAX charge will go down and the oil bonanza would disappear. For example, AAX already dropped the fuel surcharge, so less revenue in the end. But of course they are paying even less for the oil. But since other competitors are also lowering their prices, in the end, market will reach a new lower price equilibrium. This is how we see this play. So for now, it is still on.
And for the long term, i bet my money on Tony that he can fend off competitors and grab bigger market share.
Anyone share this thesis?

SniperElite,
Arwen asked you a question and you did not answer it. Suffice to say you own it, you do not own it, or you decline to reveal your position. I saw you totally sidestep the question. Well anyway, now that your explanation is given on your "lol" and the accusation that i am being paid, being put aside, now let's talk AAX once more.
What the worst will happen? Tell me, what do you think the worst will happen to AAX? Runs out of money? Is that the worst?
I think when the inevitable comes, AAX will raise fares. Being the cheapest airline sure helps. You have flexibility to raise fares. Every cent the price is increased, directly contributing to bottom line/profits.
Tell me, how much average price AAX need to increase in order to turn a profit? Maybe 2% to 5% at the most?
Now do you think the passengers can stomach that? 5% increase?
Is this the worst that will happen? OMG, i think this is nothing to AAX at all and the passengers, even GST is 6%.
You see, what i am seeing over here is, business that operates on really think margins, plus non steady input costs such as forex and oil, is sure erratic and difficult. Further, tickets were forward sold. Our original thesis, remember that, which is low oil price, has yet to come into the full picture due to the hedging issue. It is a big miscalculation on their part, but hey, my thesis is, oil will stay low for years to come. No matter, a few months late, it's ok. So future, looking far into the future, this is the company where my money will sit. That's looking past the crystal ball.

SniperElite,
You seem to be smart, but your end sentence proved otherwise. I met so many LOL people around in the internet. They just like to LOL for no reason. Do not simply assume if someone is bullish, they are being paid. And why would a bleeding company like AAX pay me to say good things about their business? And how much do you think they will pay me?
Now you say AAX eats into AA group, but this is RPT which is declared. They are quite flexible in that regard. Everyone knows this. They are sharing multitude of services, of course for cost cutting and efficiency. Now you are saying as if AAX do not earns the revenue, this, is up to you to prove it. The fact is, revenue is up 27%.

Still waiting for the warrant overhang to expire lahh..until then, price will still be depressed. There are several millions overhang on the AA group, sure the banks don't want to lose money.

The entire 2014 performance was a growth of 27.3% for revenue. This is a great performance in my opinion. They are growing, and conquering. I don't like company that is not growing, and making losses. That would be the oil and gas companies. Avoid them at all costs. I wonder why many people are jumping into the sector to buy.

sarifahselinder, 2.2 is my target entry point lah. Chance for it to drop to that level is pretty slim. However if somehow it reaches that level, i would be buying.
If it continues to move down to 2.45 level, then moves back up, say all the way to 3, i will assume i have missed the boat. Tough luck, until next time then. So i don't say it is dropping to 2.2 at the moment.

SniperElite, We have seen AA group prove themselves time and again. Even through a plane crash. So i love the group as a whole, but my money is on AAX as of now.
Please check the Quarter report, it is revenue growth of 20.4% to be exact.
The 11% is passenger growth. I may inadvertently refer to the wrong one, but the fact remain, growth of 20%.
Don't be disgruntle with no profit. Think about it carefully. How to generate profit? I think the option is simple.
Think of whatsapp, think of youtube, think of other companies that's growing spectacularly, all are making losses. Now they are profitable (maybe except youtube). The point is, first must suck the market your way, then you squeeze it for profit.

FKLI13, concur that.
Actually i want AAX/AA to be even more aggresive than they already are. Even go for more expansion, supported by rights issue and debt. I don't mind some losses along the way, due to the razor thin margin. The company must push itself to the limits...AA group will need to be a global player, and AAX is an integral part of that plan. I foresee this interconnection issue and far flung routes to be in place within 2 yrs. Lots of people will be travelling using AA group. We are still seeing passengers growth of 20%.

Lucky the CFO who went for too aggressive hedging is now gone. In my opinion, business do not really need to hedge, because they can pass the costs to customers. When oil is lower, i want the savings to be pass directly to customers as well, so why hedge and pass the savings to banks etc?

angelol, i think ringgit will no go beyond 3.66 which is the current level. I foresee a rate hike to levelize the ringgit against the USD and also BNM will simply cite the GST as a reason.
I think GDP could be lower than expected, but knowing malaysian economy well, it is indeed quite resilient

sarifahselinder,
In my view, both AA and Barakah did the right thing in calculating the forex. Then for Barakah, they did not include the losses into the EPS calculations. AA on the other hand, include it. So in my view AA is more accurate because it reflect the profit/loss on the paper, attributable to the shareholder.
Barring any changes, the losses will definitely be incurred, so for AA, no surprises for shareholders. But for Barakah, their shareholders will take a big hit later on, so they will be jumping then. What i learn from business accounting is, when they are losses, u max it and take it as much as possible.

SniperElite, it is cheap in relation to future profits. When profits are made, the stock will turn around so quick, many could miss it. If it goes to 80 cents to 90 cents..or above a ringgit...then purchase price of 45 sen..55 sen..or 50 sen...doesn't matter. This is what i mean.
Of course i worry about the poor investors out there who are selling out..i think they are going to regret big time..if you have staying power..and if you thesis is still valid..you should stay put. Dont simply jump out because of 2.5 months ago financial result. What matter is today and tomorrow.
Don't simply blame TF, he also own the share since IPO time...he also is losing his billions...i didn't see his face in the recent rich list people in Malaysia..

ketupatlazat,
You are right, airlines companies are risky. Normally i also do not invests in airlines. However recent AAX price movements, it is just too cheap, it is too UNDERVALUED. So the reasoning applies.
If you want to make big bucks, this is the chance.
There are thousands of ways for 15 billion revenue company to produce a hundred plus million in profits. Frankly speaking, it is like they are trying purposely to lose money, so that all other airlines would suffer and give up.
Tiger air, MAS all has given up. Who else on the list?

SniperElite, thanks for your unbiased input, unlike me (so i declared).
At this level, the stock price is very low, it just don't matter much. What matter is, will the company survives and will they start to generate profits? Assuming they will, 50 cents, 55 cents, 45 cents, all are cheap to buy.

Everyone jumping2 selling, but if AA is actually making profit, sure a damn good time to be buying right now

sarifahselinder,
Yalah, i checked, i also found out the same way. In my view, a forex loss is a loss. The only difference is whether this is realized loss, or not yet. Maybe for barakah it is not, so they calculate it to show profit of 24 plus million on the equity side. If it is a realized loss, they should include it like AA.
But for AA, they somehow said it is unrealized loss, so if they include it, actually they are making profit la..so this is a good point that everyone need to look at and disect.

I wrote about competition. Seems like AA strategy is to go into price war..let the competitors go bankrupt. Even Singapore Air low cost has twice gone bankrupt..now it is bankrupt..there are more than 65 lowcost in indon alone..several in malaysia.. put yourself into the shoes of AA or AAX CEO, think how you are gonna fight. As long as AA and AAX can stand it, they will fight it out, lose money is ok to them, because the future they will make tons out of it.
AAX revenue is billions, so is AA. With combined of say 15 billion revenue, you think cannot make any profit? Sure can, it is a matter of choice (to go into little profit or some losses). They have pricing power, can simply up price. Yet they did not.
AAX losses of a few millions is small compared to the revenue. Tony is pricing thing just enough to make ends meet, but sometimes, things go the other way for other factors such as currency..so the small profit turns into loss...this is especially so when tickets are sold many months in advance, yet when ringgit depreciates, losses must be taken then..
If you guys do not want to support Tony, then go and support MAS. Sure more lovely than tony and co... front happy, behind, they took your money form you taxes..

sarifahselinder,
Let me check Barakah reports first. My gut feeling is AA did it properly, not sure about Barakah's accounting.
I plan to buy AA only if drop to 2.2 level...but anyway AAX is too low..so i bought some already...

Disagreed with the conman thesis. I swoop in and bought some more stocks of AAX...cheap cheapp..
When Tony started long time ago, semua said cannot be done. As usual lah. Mana institutional investors want to buy. Sama macam solar industry. Yeah..i have a bunch i installed my self these days...couldn't be happier. TNB is cheaper? Take a hike lah..

I think the worse is over for CIMB Group. I am more worried about Petronas losing billions dragging the entire nation and the ringgit along

sarifahselinder, the forex loss is also mentioned as "unrealized loss" which is paper losses that can very well turns out to be not incurred should things just change. Maybe they dump all into the quarter in order to allow for book closure for the year. This means that 2015 will be a very clean year for airasia.
Looking at the data, in think in Q12015 Airasia as well as AAX will make profits in the income statement.

And so it begins...the dilution part is starting for the rights issue...shareholders, better be ready with some cash to subscribe

I don't believe fengshui or Technical Analysis at all. Normally i will avoid this because they are bad in predicting important events.

The result is within expectation. All is known already and expected. No need to rush to sell.
Also i still like they are growing revenues by a wide margin (more than 20%). However retail is weaker due to you know what, aa indon.

I think this stock will quickly go back up, especially after speculators jumped out.
Nyalas1955, if you sell and want to buy back later, there is a transaction costs which you must take into account. I think if the stock is expected to drop less than 10% from current level, there is no point to sell and buy back later at 10% lower price. The profit level is not significant enough (unless you buy really bigggg). If you think will drop more than 10%, by all means, it is a good plan.
For me, i am holding the shares for now. I don't think AAX will drop much from this level.

iphone4, i am not an active trader. I only buy bluechips. Even mid caps i do not buy. I reduce holdings when share is too high, i buy when i think it is really undervalued. CIMB is definitely undervalued, that i made it my largest holding. I rarely exit completely from a stock, unless the CEO cakap mengarut. e.g. a biscuit company ceo who say he will reduce the size of his biscuit so the customers don't realize it hahaha

Result should come out next week.
AAX reported double digit increase in passenger carried. So those planes are still being filled. As i said, where can you find Malaysian company making double digit growth easily .... Now only awaiting the financial result.

iphone4, sounds like your friend is indeed playing poker! Markets tend to biasly move up, so over the long term, he will still be able to make money.
I will never buy a stock if i don't like the company and the industry enough. For example. i predicted correctly last Feb that oil price will drop and stay around 75dollars for many years to come. But i will not short the oil industry, or speculate or even buy their shares at these depressed levels. I do however keep buying renewables companies. Some predict renewables will do bad when oil price dropped, but my thesis showed otherwise. So i will keep holding and buying. There are so many companies to choose from, you can really tailormade your investment decisions and choose the right industry. Of course so few in Malaysia, so you will hv to go overseas for these companies.

Nyalas1955, oil price is going to stay low for a very long time. So at this level, AAX has pretty good chance of making money.
The rights issue will not be dilutive enough to existing shareholders if they can get the rights at low prices. Therefore most of the money will come from new shareholders. This is better than borrowing from banks with fixed interest payments.
As for the dilution, i bother not with it. AAX don't make money now, diluting the shares by a lot make no difference anyway. In fact, looking at another angle, the risk of losses will also be diluted, so we will make less loss per share.

Aero1, check out my writings in CIMB share discussion area. I laid out how i did it.

So iphone4, in my vocab, no shitty luck and no need to sit out.. :) You may try copy and try my method and see.

Currently i hold 5 tranches of CIMB shares, plus 2 tranches of DRIP shares. I just sold one CIMB tranche yesterday and made 5% net profit on it, after holding it only for 3 weeks. The longer i hold, the more profit i want, but the shorter the period, the less profit i will take. This is time value of money of course.

Another thing i like is that when the stock say reaches $1, i buy it, then it moves up to 1.1, i will sell it, then if it go back down to 1, i will rebuy, and then when it goes up again, i will resell. I can do this 10x and enjoy good money. if you do average pricing, you will not be able to do this, and will need to wait until share price is above your average buy price. As you already know, when the stock price is very low, it tends to be quite volatile, and it is time to make lots of profit! Can't do with averaging the price.