Thanks guys

SinGor, i take Nazir over LKS any day to manage CIMB.
I think CIMB should move more aggressively into new markets. I can tolerate less profits for the time being, but better performance for many years to come. I also see little chance of AEC happening anytime soon, no open markets. So it is better to go in, individually by buying existing banks. And to get the best value, have to buy the lousiest bank, and make it super.

I am surprised the result of AA was quite good. I am even more surprised the share price has gone up so little. I think it is quite undervalued at the moment. Even AAX is turning around, which is good for AA shares.

conmam, re your question when will turn black, i think i already replied that.
Within two quarters, i think will be in the black.
Company cannot stay on the red forever, AAX will need to be, otherwise they will go for big sale...

genesis81, yes, little risks. I am not kidding.
What do you think the ringgit will do in the next 3 months?
In my opinion, it will maintain current levels. USD may go up some more, but the ringgit will resist, by dropping not as much.
Ringgit is being pressured from lots of big ticket expenditures by TNB and the likes...this is quite same issue back in 1997. Also Petronas is bringing is much less USD. These are risks to the ringgit.
But in the next 3 months, ringgit will not strengthens or weakens by much.
Let's see ok?

Ya...buy good companies :)

AdCool,
In the next 3 months, i see little risks on currency. So this is ok.
On depreciation, this is not an issue because the planes are all having long life, no need to replace new one anytime soon. So it is only on paper for many years to come.
And can't compare AAX with MAS, MAS having higher opex costs, very high in fact. AAX is very lean. I checked, even staffs costs actually decline by millions compare to previous quarter (not reported in the quarter report unless you compare with the previous q report).

I'm thinking of adding a bit more

Now on to checking Airasia itself! It is coming soon.

Guys, i already reviewed the financial report and also reassess my position.
My conclusion is the following:

1. The bleeding has stopped.
I can see this from comparing with previous quarter report (it is not shown in current Q report because they compare to previous yr Qtr).
Net cash actually increased by 20 million (thanks to the bridging loan, maybe from TF or AA). But since cash no longer decreasing, this is good news.
2. Kerosene costs has decreased as expected by everyone. We expect another 15% to 20% of reduction in the coming quarter, and thereafter, will stabilize. This will give AAX more cash.
3. Revenue is maintained, while number of customers has decreased. This is evident from the higher ticket prices on average. It is higher by about 15% or so. This is good news, that AAX able to increase fares but lose less passengers. I believe ticket prices will continue to go up somewhat, but not much.

Overall, the business has stabilized. Based on current cash burn rate, even without rights issue, AAX can sustain itself for about one year. With rights issue, this is increased by 5 years or more. But they will use it to pay down debt. So overall, next 2 years, there will not be another cash call.

Now with the factors mentions above, 1,2 and 3, AAX should turn a higher operating profit next quarter. In fact, this quarter they are still showing operating profit, not a loss. So with higher operating profit, maybe by as much as RM75mil at next quarter, AAX losses will almost disappear on the financial side by next quarter. And with this good margin expansion, all AAX need is more passengers. At current market, i don't think it is a problem for them to get more. MAS is rerouting, and this is good news for AAX. So in next two quarters, I expect AAX will be fully in the black.

Barring at observation of large passengers increase, i won't give a full bullish call on the stock, therefore i will not add more to my holdings, until we know more at the next quarter. However whatever i already have, i will hold because there are no more risks for it to go down.

I already made more at 5.73. I think better wait a bit more

conmam,
Your name by itself is already signifying a con person. How terrible is that? No need to show how good you are here. You are threatening other forumer with your violent words. How silly can you be?

SniperElite, you yet again make silly accusation without facts. You still mentioned i work for AAX, despite not having one piece of proof.

Both of you need more manners and a lot more thinking.

I didn't keep or urging people to keep buying. In my last few posts, i told everyone that i decided to let go of some shares. Anyone who followed will make 10% on their money.

BTW sniper is those who kill others cowardly

Of course gov guarantee will be there. Actually i am more worried about Greek default creating turbulence in the next few weeks.

Islamic Finance is worse, because they tried to circumvent interest by creating pusing and spinning things, until they all confused. It added costs and too rigid, detached from the things it should be related to.
Also Islamic finance too much love on gold, wanting to replace currency with gold, while they forgot that the Quran mentioned about the prevention of gold hoarding in one of its chapter. Check book on "kegagalan emas", written in malay though, explained it fully. Also mentioned about interest is ok, showed the mathematics of it...

I bought some CIMB shares ... all the bad news seems to be factored in.

jollybee, it doesn't really matter loan in USD or not. Since plane is listed in USD, you might as well get loans in USD. There is always the issue of earning in RM but paying in USD. Even if loan in RM, the plane will be bought in USD, still have impact, but one big shot.
For the oil play, there is a limited time to this play as i mentioned before. The window is closing. This is because airlines will start reducing their ticket prices to compete. Surcharge already removed, so everyone will follow suit.
I agree AA is very undervalued. Now what is happening with MAS? This is a factor in our long term play.

Forever, you are a big buyer and taking big risks, unless it is just a small portion of your overall investable asset.
conmamm, yes we are interested. Some people brag about how much money they have, this is natural. I don't see harm in it. But some people do exaggerate. But we will know that too. That's part of the skills required to be a reader in forums.
psooi, i think the date already passed. You better check for sure.
BTW i decided to sell one tranche of AAX shares, because it has appreciated past my target. There will be lots of turbulence, especially closer to the of the listing of new shares.

firestar23, yes that can be done.
Since the stock declined to almost the "fair value" based on RI, i assumed it is ok to go ahead and buy the mother share instead as the gap has narrowed greatly.

There are bets out there. New call warrants already issued on Malakoff's share.
They are betting that stocks will not go up above 1.7 for next 11 months (MBB). Other warrants you all check lah.

The share will not go below 20 cents lah, this will not happen so soon after RI.

FKLI13,
The jist of my review so far:
Worse of the worse is coming. We will see price adjustment and lots of route changes. Also AAX must wait for MAS to change routes and up prices. So this is a factor.
Other factor is the QZ. It is dissipating fast. I think in next quarter, it is no longer a factor, until they release the final investigation report.
For fuel, there is just a minimal advantage to be had now by AAX, but it is still positive however as consumers are willing to pay fixed ticket prices as their income has gone up.
I see too much flying restrictions in ASEAN region and other countries in AP area...this is bad for AAX. Can't easily fly someone from point perth, to Japan, because restrictions on transit etc. Some routes ok, some are not.
Other missing puzzle i must fill in after the Q report. I must wait for it for now.

Supernova,
Yes you are right. I just want to own it right away. I think those few cents don't count as much, besides, i only bought peanuts. Just park it for now, i want it quick.

jayawin, I subscribed 100% of my allocation, but no excess. I already cough it out.
Also i decided to add to the mother share, so i bought some 9,000 shares at 25.5cent.

Also, we are very close to the "worse of the worse" scenario. I described this before. What's the worst that could happen?
When we reached that level, ticket price will go up significantly.
BTW as much as we all suffered here, TF and co also suffer just as much. What do you think he will do, worse come to worse? Lari? He will not. He is the LCC man of the world. He will make things fly again...

FKLI13, nice that you remember what i wrote.
I am reviewing my assessment of AAX at the moment. However i already bought the rights issue in full.
Now we wait for the Q report.
Guys, don't make dramalah pasal stock jatuh, sure lah the stock will adjust towards the rights issue price. This is normal. Those who hold but do not subscribe to right issue will experience a loss/dilution. Those who bought, no dilution, but more capital. Either way, it is quite the same.

r°Moi,
Foreign funds will lose money if ringgit weakens. Why would they sell and convert to USD? If ringgit gets stronger, is the play.

bsngpg, i am investing into CIMB with similar reason like you, Nazir.
Anyway, i am a customer in CIMB, i find their services much better than other banks. The staffs are willing to go the extra mile. PB is one other bank staff willing to do the same for me.
Anyway, in this political scenario, i think our PM will prevail and Nazir will do what he is setting out to do. Nazir may make some statements on 1MDB etc, but it is fair statement, nothing harming his brother. I think he knew very well if his bro is gone, he would be pushed out..so bro still bro together lah

Iqbal,
The benefit of executive director is they (the board) have direct access into the company day to day operations. I find it advantageous. The more the merrier in my opinion. As to their salary, i think it is within the range. QL is a bluechip company with good returns so far, so they earned it. Petronas sucks, no need to mention them here. They just used your hydrocarbon resources and make money on it. Not fair at all. In fact, Petronas busying themselves trying to manage other countries hydrocarbon resources...while their mandate is ONLY to manage Malaysia's hydrocarbon resources as enshrined in Petroleum Act 1974.
Anyway for QL, as long as the company is performing, i see no problem for the directors to earn as much they are earning now. I think in the event profit is bad, they will voluntarily cut their pay. So in all, this is the board we want.

Guys, the number of passengers carried is much lower than expected (-15% yoy and also -16% from previous quarter).
They don't give the breakdown, which is unfortunate. I expect smaller reduction, not this large.
I'm reassesing my bullish assesment of AAX for long term hold and you guys sure will know about it. However, i am subscribing to the rights issue to the max as planned, i see no problem in it.
Now, let's wait for the quarter report.

Lots of detail graphical info on CEO pay here..
https://259trillionvs5trillion.wordpress.com/monthly-publication/may-2012/

Mohd Iqbal,
Let's calculate. Revenue is say RM2.5 bil, profit is say going for 500 mil, and staff salaries are about rm150 mil annually. I would say the drectors are slightly overpaid when some ratios are calculated.
But regardless, investors look for ROE, that kind of thing. As long as they are making the cut, it is ok. Once profit is short, this could become an issue.

Business of killing?
Everyday you and I killed the bacteria, small insects etc.
Vegetarian? They also killed. They killed the trees, and the bacteria and the insects relying on the tree for their living also would die.
We human need to take things holistically and not to overdo and keep things in balance. We only take for our sustenance and we want things to flourish.
So mumble mumble..but still there is money to be made...

ocpd
we have the same conviction re AAX.
When you swoop out 100k just before the ex, you are reducing your rights subscription, and took profit on those shares.
As for me, i am ultra conservative and normally i will stick to the shares as long as all the winning formula is still in place.
Regarding oil, i am not worried one bit it will go back up to 100, in fact my calculation showed it will never go above 75 to 80 range for a long long time.

If you own that much shares, you are in a class of your own, not the typical retails guys.
You should have easy access to TF. You should use your shares to your advantage, like activists share owners.

I think that is too far fetch. CIMB share should hold at this level

If there is no other impetus, then you should wait and buy later, maybe post rights issue.
Problem is, the impetus happening soon is the quarter report, so the stock price is reacting positively to this potential. So which one do you think will be more important in driving the share price from here on... rights issue or quarter result?

rooney8, that's what i thought too. But quarter report may make things different, so those warrant issuer may get burnt..

I received requests to provide tip on which company to buy, after a really good run in HK. So when i provide the tip in the form of "AAX", people say blah blahh.. anyway, look for undervalued company with a really gungho management...with vested interest in everything

kt888 88
If that is your average, you should buy the rights issue if you intend to hold past rights issue date. If you don't, then there will be dilution later. I think all else being equal, the price movement will only start post rights issue, but then, this quarter report will be pretty hot, as the price is moving up in anticipation. So in short, if you bought rights issue, and price moves up later, you will gain good and cover your diluted position.

CIMB still making profit, where got market collapse...

I can't recommend any HK stocks now, even i am sitting on a bunch of cash.
I owned Wasion before, a maker of smart electric meters and other meters. From 4+ now it is 12 plus. I have completely exited.
However there is another one which i am holding, but i have reduced somewhat my holding. This is the one that is up 100+ % i mentioned. I intend to hold it for long term.

ocpd, good to know that you have the same analysis. The upside potential is good. Also congrats for your achievement.
Today and age, everyone like to kutuk2 other people just like that. No respect for others. It is not easy to do business, lots of challenges. When they succeed, they are blamed for 'taking advantage' on other people lah...this and that lah..when they failed...also blamed...
Rights issue will surely dilute the share base, despite the compensation made through the free warrants. Regardless, think for the future, that's where everything count.

Hhmmm...i am a large holder on this company...but i think you all may want to wait some more before buying ....
If you don't have any position in this company, then no harm to buy some at any price now.

Ehh..someone actually looking for me?
kensen, I am a promoter because i think it is a good investment. I am buying up the rights issue in full. I think it is a good opportunity.

I have been busy lately, enjoying the ride in the Hang Seng to the fullest. Imagine stocks up several thousand points... One of my stocks shot up more than a hundred percent in a month...it was a sweet ride!
made so much money on it...no need to trade at all until next year...

And the best part...this very stock is hammered just like AAX right now...it was profit making..but due to competition, in 2014, it made loss..just like AAX, because the CEO went on a price war, just like AAX.
And now they seems to be winning, and the stock, from so low low price..is shooting up like a rocket...

In WSJ:
TF met Joko Widodo and told the president he should scrap Indonesia floor pricing which caused AA group to increase ticket prices by as much as 100%.
During an interview, TF said Indonesia is the only country in the world to have it. TF said Airasia is recovering financially from the crash impact and will not post a net loss for the first quarter of 2015. However passengers traffic is yet to reach previous levels, in part due to marketing stopped to respect victims etc.
Also he mentioned about IPO, two new IPOs as everyone already knew.
TF said airasia will go back to Japan and also will do more point to point flights, linking smaller cities with good potential.

AdCool, what you are talking about is on fixed costs. That is sure to be incurred. But the variable is not.
So in the end, the losses will be "lesser". But if they don't consolidate and move the planes somewhere else where it is more of use, they will incur higher losses, which is what you are pointing out in my view. So the answer is both yes and no.
For Q1 and Q2, i think the oil price play will fully be in the picture. This is positive for AA group, especially so for AAX due to the longer distance travelled. My opinion is the share will start to move very soon, and it is only way is up.

rizerlee, time is running out on our low oil price play. The cost savings is being pass on to consumers, and used for defending market share. In the end, this bonanza will disappear. And we will be back on the actual future of the airline, which luckily in my opinion, is still good.
Hawaii or London anyone?

Halted promotion, but after everyone saw how TF handled it, people came back. Now it is coming back in full gear. Many people postponed their trip, but now jumping back in.
At the same time, when you lose money on every sales, lower sales will translate into "lower loss". So got chance lah.

Don't lose hair lahh...just relax. We are waiting for rights issue to subscribe..then the financial quarter release...

Yes, that's the one. Sometimes got minority interest, so just check for it. You will need to sum up both and have a total paid out. Alternatively, you can check dividend declaration made (bursa etc) and multiply that by outstanding shares. You will get the exact dividend paid.

Fly to Hawaii, vacation 2 days, then take US airlines to continental US. Maybe total fare and vacation costs will be cheaper than standard airline fares all the way?