In 2018, when trump attacked china by imposing tariff , RMB to USD exchange rate declined from 6 to 7, a drop of 15%

What is the implication ?

Fair enough, its USD500 bil export to US suffered. Let's say it suffered by 25% x USD500 bil. It is equivalent to USD125 bil

But due to decline in RMB，the profit margin of its remaining export to the rest of the world experience huge expansion. For simplistic comparison purpose, 15% x USD1,800 bil = USD270 bil

Let me sum it up for you : Penalty by US is USD125 bil, while gain from rest of the world is USD270 bil

If you are China, won't you yawn at Trump's tariff ?


Spot on, Icon8888. In fact, PRC did not manipulate RMB. They just let RMB slide by itself. The issue then was "no forex intervention by PRC could mean forex intervention ? "

PRC's response.

"PRC Scraps US Pork Orders in Record Scale".
China is drawing back her booking orders for 14,700 tonnes of U.S. pork, scheduled for shipment in 2019 and 2020, said foreign media.

This was said to be the largest booking withdrawal by China since 2013, according to the statistics of U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Posted by avengers19 > Aug 2, 2019 2:45 PM | Report Abuse

That doesn't mean they paid them US 1 BILLION my friend haha. It's just that the lawsuit which was 1 billion has been settled.

U are right. They do not disclose the terms of their settlement.

Investors do not buy Trump's propaganda that US economy is doing fine. If what Trump said is true, why must Fed lower interest rates ? Powell has a hard time explaining his rationale of lowering interest rates.

"The arrogance and ignorance of Hong mongers are no where to find,"

You are right. A few years back, I was in Hong Kong n I do find the people there arrogant. I asked my way by showing the name of a street to a Hong Kong shopkeeper and his reply was "don't know".

The people of Macao are friendly and are able to converse in Cantonese, Mandarin, English, Portuguese. At least, I can see the wisdom of Macao people.

Now, Hongkees are saying Hong Kong will bounce back. I doubt it. PRC will leave Hong Kong in the cold and develop Shenzhen as another Hong Kong, New laws will be erected to turn it into an international city n if successful, the rest of China will follow. Change is indeed taking place in PRC for the better.

It is easy to say "I love democracy", "I love freedom of speech" ....

Hongkong's problem would not have arisen if the British had not used their gunboat to grab other people's land. The people of Chagos are still waiting to return to their original home stolen by UK n leased out to US to build its naval base in the Indian Ocean.

Like they say, if there is no Act 1, then there is no Act 2.

I pity those Hongkees especially those college n uni protesters. They are suppose to be clever. But they does not seem to understand without the mainland, Hong Kong will continue its decline.

In the past, Hong Kong is the gateway to the mainland for global business. This advantage is already long gone after PRC opens up. These bright students could not understand this ??

A good article in Star today, "Hong Kong in decline".

PRC will just let Hong Kong rot slip into oblivion.

The mainland is capitalist but still embrace communism to hold on to its territories. The West would certainly be happy to see PRC melt like the USSR.

A nostalgia for a time gone by. PRC will bid its time. When the Basic Law ends, PRC Law will automatically take effect. Nothing can change this. After all, Hongkong was just a lease to UK for 99 years.

Hongkees should adapt themselves to the new realities. Expensive housing is not PRC's making. It is the fault of British colonist which practise unbridled capitalism.

The communism practised by PRC is not the original communism espoused by Mao or Marx or USSR. They wanted to make an equitable society by making everyone poor.

The communism practised by PRC now intends to make a more equitable society by making its citizens rich. This makes a great difference.
Hence, PRC is neither communist nor capitalist.

Spot on !!
Posted by Negan > Jul 26, 2019 8:42 PM | Report Abuse

Honestly, hongkies would be better off under CCP! Those who protest are stupid youth! If CCP takes over, hongkies will beneit tremendously from cheap housing! Enough exploiting hongkies!

Take Senzhen for example! The quality of life in Senzhen is superior that those in Hong Kong! Hongkies are living in total sh'thole to be honest!

Chinese military can be deployed at Hong Kong’s request to contain protests, Beijing says

'State of Emergency' coming to HongKong soon if these protest do not stop. It is within the Basic Law to request help from the central government if the disturbances could not be contained.

Budweiser IPO called off due to uncertainties in HK.

"And that's why I have always said that enormous patience is required for the strategy."

What an insight !
Keynes said : "in the long term, we are all dead". I remember a bank manager who held a lot of shares for long term investment but joined in the fire sale that followed the stock mart crash in 1987. He did it again in 1998. I know his wife who told me the whole story cos' her husband also dumped her holdings of shares as well.

Is KLSE overvalued or fully valued in light of current economic challenges ?
If u buy a fully valued stock, chances are that u won't be able to make $$$ .

Fund managers are not interested probably due to its low free float.

Gas Msia has indicated that price of gas will increase tremendously come January 2020 due to deregulation of gas market.

With low margins, the glove sector seems overvalued now.

Most of the businessman did not vote BN due to unrefunded GST. The ordinary folks who are net savy did not vote BN due to fake news law passed by BN which put every internet surfer at risk.

GST looks good only on paper.

With gas price increase, outlook for glove sector softer now.

Everything looks good on paper. U pay input tax. U get a refund. But u get only a portion back. Where are the rest of $$$ ? PPl are running a business. They need the money as promised. They are not zillionaires watching TV at home.

Agree

Maybe we can take a look at Budweiser, scheduled to be listed in HongKong next week.

The west look at everything from their perspective n assume it to be the ultimate truth. They call it 'conventional wisdom'. But in reality, how far is this true.

When Japan was in a recession after the Plaza Accord, Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman insists that when interest rates fall to zero, Japan's economic fortunes will revive. In short, he says monetary policy always work. But, sadly, maybe it works in US but not in Japan.

He missed out an important element - culture. It may well be true of US when everybody will jump into the wagon when interest rates fall to zero -in line with Adam Smith's invisible hand. But, Japaneses keep on repaying their debts without borrowing in spite of interest rates falling to zero. That is their culture - responsibility. And Krugman's suggestion does not work.

In the end, Krugman suggest Japan central bank buys helicopters, refrigerators etc to end the deflation. But this is the realm of fiscal policy not monetary policy. In short, Krugman admitted monetary policy did not work in japan.

As to PRC, I have read comments that they will experience capital flight. The beauty of PRC's economy is only part of the Yuan that is used for international trade in convertible. The rest is not convertible. So, capital flight is not a problem and that is why Gordon Chang's prediction does not come true.

All telcos overpriced, with dropping profits, little growth prospects.

The ruling politicians in US rule by fake news. Beyond the small group of elites, the rest of the population have probably low levels of education like third world countries.
I find it amazing that some politicians from the ruling party talk about US farmers ripped by China.
How could it be ? He is telling those farmers China rip them when they sell their soya beans.
Well, the problem is already solved. China stop buying from them n start buying from Russia. Those idiots can eat all the soya beans themselves.

Gomen funds are merely creating up n downs to give some life to the market. If prices stay unchanged all the while, there is nothing to play in the market.

For DT, each time he negotiate with China, China has to start buying his soyabeans irrespective of whether a deal is made. This time around, there is no such commitment issued by China.

DT will try his usual tricks. DT will insists on China buying his soyabeans while the truce is going on. DT knows that his farmers are hit by a hurricane n would resort to trickery to buy time.

"And while the White House statement said China had agreed to immediately restart agricultural purchases, there was no such commitment in the Chinese version." from SCMP today

Mnuchin‘s comment that China trade deal is 90% complete is bullshit. DT is asking for total agreement on DT's terms. China has said it means a dismantling of the government.

It is the same as the Plaza Accord which decimated Japan's economy. On the top of raising USD/JPY exchange rate, Japan was forced to share its semiconductor secrets with US companies.

If there is no compromise on the US side, nothing will come out of it.

I think probably not much news. How a trade deal can come if DT insists on keeping his tariffs even after the deal is made ? China has said agreeing to DT's terms means dismantling the whole government.

China's policy is the lift its population out of poverty, hence it uses subsidies. Unlike US, the republicans says those homeless in the US are lazy people n no help should be given.

China practice the "new socialism" which will make all its citizens well-to-do, not the socialism practiced by USSR or Mao.

US started currency war in 2009 via QE which is a de facto devaluation of USD. This time around, DT is probably using tariffs as a weapon.

Latest : New Zealand told-"Stop stealing Maori kids". Now, they steal other people's children.

Who says the Us do not steal ?

Japan was the leader in semiconductors way back before Plaza Accord. After Plaza Accord was imposed on Japan, Reagan forced Japan to share its semiconductor technology with US. Now, Rubio is trying to steal Huawei's intellectual property.

Who is the thieve now.

Published on Jun 19, 2019
A U.S. senator has filed a legislative amendment that would prevent Huawei from seeking damages in American patent courts. It came after the Chinese tech giant demanded U.S. telecom giant Verizon pay licensing fees for its patented technology.

Japan then, ...
The Reagan administration regarded Japan as the biggest economic threat to the US. Washington accused Tokyo of state-sponsored industrial policies, intellectual property theft from US companies, and of dumping products on the American market.

The Plaza Accord was forced on Japan. Besides pushing up JPY agst USD which made Japanese products expensive in US, It also forced Japan to sign deals to share its semiconductor technologies and increase its purchases of US semiconductor products.

Trump is using the same tactic as Reagan. With gap between US n China too wide to bridge, I do not think anything concrete will come of the meeting.

Trump comes to his senses ???
I am doubtful.

We are sailing into the sunset.

Probably nothing will come out of G20 meeting. China has already said accepting Trump's demands means that the whole system of government have to be dismantled.

Posted by spider68 > Jun 12, 2019 2:59 PM | Report Abuse

I don't have a clue who has so many shares in hand to dump and at a loss some more. Why subscribed in the 1st place?

One can only guess. Most ppl are still nostalgic about an era that is long gone n hoping it will return. The times when striking IPO means striking lottery. But it won't return for good as rules as to IPO have totally changed.

Tide turned ? Nobody knows. Looking at what China revealed, there is probably no trade deal at all. They say it is better not to have a trade deal rather than change hundreds of laws demanded by US, which will dismantle the entire government.

Next battle front - rare earth. 2 tier pricing for rare earth is coming. Those foreign tech firms which stayed in China will get cheap rare earth. Those in US would cost a lot more. Apple would have to price themselves out of the market.

In Bukit Merah, at the time when Asian Rare Earth operated, flowers turn black colour. What did the authorities told us ? They said "all is fine".

China is expected to implement 2 tier pricing of rare earth. Exports of rare earth to US will be hit will even a higher tax while those foreign high tech firms insider China will enjoy a lower price rare earth.

Posted by Negan > Jun 9, 2019 3:23 PM | Report Abuse

It only justify US negative view of China! You know how much anti Russia sentiment is in US!

Russia today does not export revolution. anti Russia sentiment ?

Trump is the modern day Hitler.

I agree. He provoked Russia to start a war n his minion in NATO talked about taking out Russian missiles placed inside Russia.

Putin responded that if there is no Russia, there will be no US.

Trump making US great ??

S.Arabia has quietly seek China' help in developing its missiles. US is crying foul in CNN today.

Like Putin says "where is yr country's security when another nation can flick the switch on n off according to its whims.

How is Trump making US great ? Other nations will shun its products. Imagine buying weapons systems fr US. The US can stop u from using the weapons systems by denying u the spare parts.

The buffoon just flicked off the Android switch for China.

Like Putin says "where is yr country's security when another nation can flick the switch on n off according to its whims.

The important thing is : where is the switch? is it inside Trump's living room ? If it is, then there won't be many takers.

When this buffoon gets drunk, it will flick the switch off n yr internet is gone.

Of course this buffoon can leave WTO. And the politicians in US have no marbles to remove him even though he flout every law in the US. Most of the US politicians behave like clowns and are all clueless.

Huawei has just signed deal to develop 5G in Russia. US is not the world n the 5 eyes nations are its satellite nations.

Trump is saying the US economy is that good. If it is, why suddenly, the Fed is preparing to change tack?