Sifu said

If soybean oil goes usd1.00 in future.What price will cpo be then?
Still think cpo price will be back to 2 to 3k? Once its in 4k range imeans  structural shift had happened. 4k to 8k is the playground now. Easy average 10 to 15% dividend yield for palm oil stock from 2023 on until big fund start buy up until it drop to 5% ie stock price need double at least.

https://www.agweb.com/markets/grain-markets/how-will-surge-bio-based-fuels-impact-grain-demand

“You’ll probably run out of feedstocks by 2025 for Renewable diesel — that’s a problem,” says Pete Meyer, head of grain and oilseed analytics, S&P Global Platts.

By then 70% of the feedstock will have to come from vegetable oil — from soybeans, canola or even camelina.

“As this market develops, I’m guessing many will wish those were reversed,” Basse says. “Meal could become a byproduct that really drags down the price of soybeans. While at the same point, soybean oil could go to crazy levels like 90 cents or $1.”

While the impact of bio-based fuels could be similar in impact to ethanol, the comparison stops there, Flory says. 

“Additional demand for vegetable oil is kind of off the charts,” he says. “It’s not like 2005-06 with ethanol — that market was developing on a mandate. Renewable diesel and SAF are developing on actual demand.”

How will these impacts be felt at the farmgate?

“Better bean prices and better basis prices for those near crush plants,” Nicholson says.

Flory agrees: “Soybeans from the 2023 crop will be in much higher demand to feed new capacity and the 2024 soybean crop will be expected to supply roughly 400 million bushels of crush capacity. All this means one thing – soybeans will be bidding more aggressive for acres in the U.S. in the next three years to feed crush expansion. Longer-term, demand for even more fuel feed stock will keep soybeans bidding for acres. This could be the rising tide that will lift all boats.”

Sifu said

Even big oil company are embracing renewable diesel.

https://www.world-grain.com/articles/17531-renewable-diesel-to-drive-us-biofuels-industry

DENVER, COLORADO, US — The US biofuels industry is expected to see a period of growth and transition due to a recent surge in renewable diesel, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.

“The outlook for biofuels is favorable as the US and other leading developed countries embrace renewable liquid transportation fuels as a solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg, lead grain and farm supply economist for CoBank. “Renewable diesel offers the most intriguing opportunity in the biofuels space, given the extraordinary growth potential.”

As major oil companies have begun embracing renewable diesel, US production is expected to increase exponentially. Several industry stakeholders have announced plans for new soybean crush and refinery facilities over the last two years. Soybean oil is the feedstock most commonly used for producing renewable diesel. Combined, the proposed crush and refinery projects would increase US renewable diesel production capacity six-fold by 2030 to 6.5 billion gallons annually.

However, the expected growth in soybean oil-based renewable diesel requires considerably more soybean bushels for domestic crush. CoBank estimates that US soybean acreage would need to increase by 17.9 million acres to fill the supply gap created by the additional crush and refinery projects that have been announced. Additionally, the United States would need to stop exporting whole soybeans.

Alternatives to a massive shift of acres from corn to soybeans would include growing other oilseeds like canola and sunflower on a larger scale, importing other vegetable oils, or using other feedstocks such as beef tallow to produce renewable diesel fuel.

Biofuel production has grown nearly 8% every year over the past 15 years, driven by tax credits and targeted government programs, including the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will increase usage of renewable energy in general, and biofuels in particular.

Sifu said

Just pray palm oil dont go too high instead of worrying it will come down .

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/business-inputs/article/2021/12/16/renewable-diesel-plans-outstrip-soy

Marrying Soybeans and Renewable Diesel

Renewable Diesel Plans Could Outstrip Soybean Acres, Soy Oil Supplies


OMAHA (DTN) -- Analysts are having a hard time modeling out the soybean oil needs in the near term and long term as more renewable diesel projects are announced. For now, forecasts call for higher soybean prices, expanded acreage, and not enough soybean oil to go around.

If everything is built out as projected, farmers would have to add tens of millions of acres of soybeans and yield increases to keep up with the crush demand. To hit the numbers, soybean production would have to grow by roughly 3.6 billion bushels by 2030.

USDA's Economic Research Service this week projected soybean oil will see greater demand starting in 2022, while Rabobank offered a similar outlook projecting greater crush capacity starting in 2023 as more renewable diesel facilities come online.

In an analysis this week, Rabobank projects renewable diesel production to hit more than 6.1 billion gallons by 2030. That would push vegetable oil demand to about 47 billion pounds (21.4 million metric tons). To put that into perspective, Rabobank notes the U.S. right now produces about 24 billion to 25 billion pounds (11 mmt to 11.3 mmt). That basically requires soybean and other vegetable oil production to double to meet the demand driven by renewable diesel.

If all the renewable diesel capacity gets built out, within three to four years, there could be either a risk of deficit in vegetable oils or millions of new acres needed in soybeans, as well as other crops such as canola.

"If you look at it all going to soybeans, you would need upwards of 55 million to 60 million more acres of soybeans," Nicholson said. "We just don't have that in the United States." Nicholson added, "Soybeans would basically wipe out corn and wheat acres in the U.S. just to produce enough oil for this. But we don't have the crushing capacity to do it."



This expansion of renewable diesel also doesn't quite factor in where sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) will come into play. The airline industry is clamoring to lower its emissions as well. The Build Back Better bill has a tax credit of up to $1.25 a gallon and $300 million for research, along with other potential funds for SAF infrastructure. Ethanol, however, also will get a chance to operate in this space with some further refining to change the molecular structure.

ADM also recently partnered with GEVO Inc. to focus on SAF and other low-carbon hydrocarbon fuels. ADM estimates 900 million gallons of ethanol from plants in Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska could be converted into 500 million gallons of SAF fuels.

Both renewable diesel and ethanol moving aggressively into aviation fuels will also require the federal government to consider different options for modeling out carbon scores through language in the legislation.

"When you look at sustainable aviation fuel, that's an industry that's kind of in its infancy, and I don't mean that in a bad way, but it's just kind of the nature of the beast," Nicholson said.



 

Now moody start talk good on plantation stock

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1074473/moody-s-stronger-earnings-for-sime-darby-plantation-ioi-corp-in-next-12-to-18-months

Sifu sw8d

If the chart goes as he predicts .
Based on fa and ta.He expect a material annoucement in 2023/24 to push the chart to break ath

Sifu said

The surprise dividend mean only 1 thing.
The boss want close the wkly mthly qtrly and half yearly and yearly chart in bullish indicator.
You can go find out the chart.

Sifu said


Only 2 states in us already consume so much soybean oil.
Just go imagine all other states following.

If the soybean oil is not coming down.
Cpo will have to go up to close the big price gap with soybean oil.

https://www.startribune.com/chs-sees-bullish-demand-in-soybean-oil-citing-renewable-diesel/600224131/

Historically, most of that oil has been processed for human consumption, such as in salad dressings or cooking oils. But CHS leadership says the facility will also aim to fill in a “demand pull”from a West Coast increasingly seeking cleaner-burning diesel fuels, some made from soybean oil.

Talk of additional markets adding low carbon fuel standards — such as New York — has agriculture executives eyeing unprecedented opportunity.

“The demand pull, just for California, has created this exuberance,” said John Griffith, CHS’ ag business vice president, in an interview late last month. “You could consume all of the soybeans that we export to the world, just in those two markets (California and New York).”

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, only five plants nationwide produce renewable diesel, churning out 590 million gallons in 2020. But six more plants are under construction, according to DOE’s Alternative Fuels Data Center. Capacity is expected to grow by 2 billion gallons.

Renewable diesel can be made from more than oilseed. For instance, Minnetonka-based agriculture giant Cargill will convert beef tallow into oil at a planned Nebraska facility. But soybean purveyors see an advantage in extracting oilseed from a crop grown plentifully across the Midwest.

In North Dakota, Marathon Petroleum has teamed up with Chicago-based commodities trader Archer-Daniels-Midland to open a facility that is expected to produce over half a billion pounds of soybean oil as feedstock for renewable diesel.

Like corn, soybean is a crop that keeps on giving. While 80% of the bean is crushed and made into meal, which is mostly fed to livestock, another 20% goes into extracted oil.

“The question 20 years ago was, ‘What are we going to do with all the soybean oil?’ ” Smentek said. “Now, we ask, ‘What are we going to do with all this soybean meal?’ ”

Renewable diesel — different than biodiesel, which must be mixed with gasoline to power vehicles — is chemically identical to petroleum-based diesel. In other words, it can replace traditional diesel in a heavy-duty vehicle’s engine. Since renewable diesel burns cleaner — or with fewer emissions — than traditional diesel, it’s also highly valued for its low carbon footprint, especially in progressive states.

For the moment, nearly all of the renewable diesel is consumed in California. After approval from their legislatures, Oregon and Washington are also implementing similar low-carbon standards. Other states, including New York, are drafting proposals.

It’s this demand that CHS says it’s chasing. The cooperative finished a $105 million expansion last year at a soybean crush facility in Fairmont, Minn., just north of the Iowa border. Plant workers say they see as many as 500 trucks a day, many bringing crushed soybeans back up to Mankato for refining.

FIrst interim 8 sen
Final dividend will be how much?
SIfu said Cpo in reverse head and shoulder.
Get ready for 5k by end of year.
This qter will be the lowest cpo price at 3200 and already price in.
Look forward to better core profit going forward.
In the next 1 or 2 qtr another 200 to 300 m profit is expected.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-125-barrel-2023-china-ends-covid-lockdowns-2022-11

Oil prices could be headed significantly higher in 2023, especially if China shifts away from its COVID-19 lockdown policies and towards a full reopening, according to Goldman Sachs. 

In a Monday note, the bank highlighted that its 2023 forecast for Brent crude oil to trade at $110 per barrel has plenty of upside risk to $125 per barrel due to a consistent decline in inventories and spare capacity. On top of that, there is a risk "of meaningful supply disruptions" in Libya, Russia, Iraq, and Iran, which could send oil prices higher.

"The risk distributions around our current oil forecasts are skewed squarely higher given spot demand continues to realize robustly," Goldman Sachs' Callum Bruce wrote.

Brent crude oil currently trades just below $100 per barrel, and it topped out at nearly $140 per barrel shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. 

There are still plenty of concerns about demand for oil as China continues with its COVID-19 related lockdown policies. Those policies, if they continue, represent the "final significant fundamental downside risk" for oil prices, according to the note.

But recent headlines have hinted that China may be leaning away from their lockdown policies.

"Our China economists believe recent headlines simply mark the start of a multi-month preparation period for reopening, and so have maintained their current base case of 2Q23 reopening, once the winter flu season has passed," Bruce said.

Any further news that China is moving towards a reopening would likely drive upside in oil prices. An early reopening would add $6 to Goldman's $110 per barrel price target, and a full international reopening would add $15 to Goldman's price target to get it to $125 per barrel. 

Such a move in Brent crude oil prices would represent potential upside of 29% from current levels.

Finally, a weakening of the US dollar, which is likely if China fully reopens its economy, could boost oil prices as its year-to-date strength has served as a headwind for commodity prices.

Sifu said cpi will drop and dxy will crash below 108.
Sifu is correct again.

Sifu said china is reopening gradually .
China trim quarantine time by 2 days.

Sifu is correct again.

Sifu shared a wise quote

Bill Gates bought farms long ago, and Buffett bought Occidental Oil later. I wouldn't be surprised if Musk buys Glencore in the future. Americans are still more pragmatic. It is clear from the trend of the Dow and Nasdaq in the US stock market. The traditional economy is booming, the new economy has fallen, and energy and minerals have been trending. Of course, it is also possible that the U.S. capital market is immature, does not understand value investing, and stirs up speculation in traditional industries.

Those industry leaders who are driving world change are buying assets that cannot be changed by the world.
Speculators whose lives cannot be improved are keen to dig out companies that change the world.

Sifu said

Tsh usually give annual dividend at qtr 4.
Base on a bumper profit year, a highest dividend in record will be announced.
25% on total annual profit. If last year is 3 sen this year hopefully is 10 sen.
Expecting a slowly rising trend in Tsh because of that in 3.5 mths time.

Sifu said

Tsh qtrly chart on macd shows a 1st golden cross in march 2022 since 2010.
Thats when director started daily 500k buyback non stop.
Coincident?

Sifu said

Qtrly chart will show you the true direction of all big fund.No noise from ikan bili and fake manipulation.

When qtrly divergent appears.Mean big fund are accumulating on every weakness without public attention.Usually it will appear as bearish trend or weakness in short term indicator.

Sifu said

If you look back quarterly chart of plantation index in 1998 to 2000. There is a bullish divergent in every indicator. After that plantation went on a 8 years bull run  from 2000 to 2008.Plantation index went from 1400 to 7600. After a correction in 2008 ,another 8 years bull run and went back higher to 9400 in 2016 
Total 16 years up trend.

The exact bullish divergent had appeared again in 2022.
Expect the same will happen and this time will break previous ath. Long term Bullish trend for plantation is starting again.

Why 2000? That when tech stock bubble burst. Fund went back to old economy again .

CH­I­NA WO­R­K­I­NG ON A PL­AN TO SC­R­AP CO­V­ID FL­I­G­HT SU­S­P­E­N­S­I­O­NS. FL­I­G­HT BAN MO­VE PA­RT OF CH­I­NA PL­AN TO NO­R­M­A­L­I­ZE AIR TR­A­V­EL.

Sifu said

Opec and russia if in their right mind will not allowed us to replenish their reserve below their selling price. Sell high buy low is not an option.

Sifu said

There are 3 big event in 2023 which is very bullish for commodity especially cpo.

In 2023 cpi will 100% drop because 2022 base data is very high.
So comparative figure wil show big drop in inflation.
So did the real price come down.The answer is no.
Your Roti canai seller doesnt know who is fed.When they raise price they never come down.
In other words we get used to the price already.
If fed follow cpi they will be hard to continue qt.

2. B40 implementation.
History states thats b20 base is 2k never broke even when oil went negative.
b30 base is 3k.
b40 base will be 4k.
Plantation stock valuation is still at 2k to 2.5k.

3.China reopening.
100% will reopen in 2023.China is already preparing for their nasal vaccine for mass use by training their grassroot community.With 3 layers protection the ccp is ready to reopen gradually. Ccp is actually helping to control the hike of commodity price by closing borders and zero covid policy.
Once they open up. All plan by us and fed will be ineffective.
They can jack up to 5 to 6% rate but oil still high price. Probably they can try up to 20% like in 70s.

Sifu said

Get ready for oil above 100 and cpo above 5k by end of year.

Sifu said

Fed keep raise rate.
Oil and vegetable oil not dropping and gaining strength.

Smell of stagflation like 70s. Commodity like palm oil is king in stagflation. Fund already positioning for stagflation as they know rate hike in current scenario wont bring down inflation but only worsen it eventually leading to stagflation.

Smell of bond bursting. Usd is going down even a rate hike cannot save.

Sifu said

Once b40 launch.no more supply glut in any event of recession, depression or watever in the newr future.Unless indonesia ban export for 2 mths which is unlikely. The target is b100 for indonesia very ambitious. Basically limited palm oil for export in future unless production x 2.

https://en.tempo.co/read/1652143/esdm-ministry-upbeat-b40-can-be-implemented-in-early-2023

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Minister of Energy, Resources, and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif shared optimism that the use of 40 percent biodiesel (B40) fuel can be implemented in early 2023. B40 means it contains a 40% blend of palm oil-derived biofuel and 60% diesel.

“B40 is ready to be launched in January, inshallah, depending on the test results. We’re optimistic,” said Arifin on Tuesday, November 1, 2022. He said the road test has been carried out since the end of July 2022 and is targeted to end this month.

Based on the results of current monitoring and evaluation, he continued, B40 is believed to answer energy needs and support efforts to reduce vehicle emissions. From the series of trials carried out, the government hoped that the B100 target can be achieved in the future.

Sifu said

You can shout whatever you want.
But you cannot change mthly trend reversal since 2008.Its a mega trend that all fund must obey.

Sifu said

Long term elliot wave wont go wrong.

The monthly chart above shows the five waves advance from 3.1.2008 and the different degrees within the cycle. The idea is overall bullish for the USDX. However, there are two possibilities for the Dollar Index. It can make a significant correction soon and drop hard to correct the whole cycle. Alternatively, it will just correct the cycle since the lows at 02.01.2018 and continue higher.


https://elliottwave-forecast.com/commodities/usdx-the-index-structure-showing-an-opportunity-to-buy-commodities/

The $USDX Monthly charts overlay with $XAGUSD (Silver); as we can see, the metal should not be trading below zero and has been holding the lows, while the USDX is close to a peak. Understanding and reading the market makes a huge difference in being on the right side and knowing which instruments to trade.

In Conclusion: 2023 might provide a pullback in the USDX, which means higher $EURUSD, $AUDUSD, $NZDUSD, $GBPUSD, and higher commodities. Commodities should hold stronger against the $USDX, and provide a better buying into 2023.

Sifu said

Meanwhile bloomberg agriculture index had breakout from 14 yrs secular bear trend since 2008. Reversal of tech to tradtional is in progress.

In the past two weeks, U.S. stocks have told two stories, one is the bull market joy story of the rising valuation of traditional blue-chip stocks led by the Dow; the other is the continuous decline of growth stocks represented by big technology, and the decline is enough to wake up the market veterans about 2000 Memories of the 2019 tech stock crash. The "scissors difference" between blue-chip and technology indicates that when the new cycle starts, everything will be different.

Art Hogan further explained: "Looking back, this market, and the broader economy, is starting to remind me of the 2000-2002 pattern, when extreme tech weakness impacted the major indices, but the performance of more traditional parts of the market and economy was better."

Dan Suzuki said investors should keep in mind that "a bear market always heralds a change in the industry leading the next cycle". That means tech won't be the leader when the next bull market begins.

Ukraine war: Russia halts grain deal after 'massive' Black Sea Fleet attack

“If the green corridor is closed big and small farms alike will go bankrupt, everyone understands that," says Viktor Bykov, CEO of Tecom Agro Group Ltd, an agricultural company that leases 26,000 hectares of farmland in and around the Odesa region. 

Still, in a war Putin has pitched to the developing world as a struggle against Western domination, he could settle for the disruption caused even with the grain deal in place; ending it would risk turning more nations against him, driving global prices for wheat, sunflower oil and other food staples back to the stratospheric levels seen in May.  

Ukraine war: Russia halts grain deal after 'massive' Black Sea Fleet attack

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63439760

https://gapki.id/en/news/22172/ri-to-start-commercial-production-of-palm-oil-gasoline-in-2024

Beside palm oil bio diesel.
Palm oil Bio gasoline on the way.

Sifu is correct again

Usd dxy double top going to 108 soon.
Vegetable oil is rallying and cpo is going to 5k.

Sifu is correct again.
Fed is softening on rate and yellen want buy bond to boost liquidity.

Sifu said

Big fund will be convinced of long term profitability on new range of cpo price above 4k.
Plantation new bull trend will commence after retracing from break out on 7 years down trend .

Cautious to tech sector as long term interest will be higher which means tech high valuation high pe will not be seen in next 7 years.
Fed will not be able to give ultra low rate to zero again in future as usd will be ditched by many countries as it progresses to lose its major reserve currency st
To maintain usd strength long term  higher rate in average is expected.

China is plotting a big digital shift to eyuan which will float its renminbi  along its belt and road countries,brics and allies based on major payment platform using wechat,alipay etc on a flip of button once it is ready.That will pose a very big challenge and a deathblow to dollar hedgemony.

Expecting Us to duplicate a ukraine war in taiwan in 1 to 3 years. Avoid tech stock it will be a poison to hold in future just like glove in the past 2 years.

As usual from covid to financial crisis to  war (nuclear even).
Palm oil will be resilient and profitable.

Sifu said

If you looked back in 2014 jun, Tech index breakout and started a  7 years bull run until  2021 Dec.
Coincidentally plantation index peaked and  started bear trend on 2014 jun for 7 yrs as well.
Fund switch from plantation to tech during this past 7 years?
Expecting Tech to be on bear trend going forward as fund continue to unwind into other sector especially plantation.

Plantation index will officially end its 8yrs downtrend on mthly chart since 2014 Jun.The index started its break out in feb 2022 marking the darkhorse rising .
After its 6 mths retracement ended within this 2 mths above macd 0 axis.
1st bull run cycle since 2014 for the next 10 yrs will commence in 2023.

Sifu said

Dxy going 108 by end of mth.
Oil in reverse head and shoulder.
Commodity is rebounding.
End of mth will show reverse bullish engulfing in mthly candle.
All the fake q blocking.

Sifu said

You must know palm oil and other vegetable oil is so strong because it is the renewable source of replacement for fossil fuel in both fuel consumption and industrial application.
In future more and more bio plastic will be in the market.
Probably one day glove will be produced from palm oil or other plant based oil.
Usa is even using soybean oil to repair road now in latest development.
The market not even knew that and not pricing in the future.

Sifu said

Most likely Tsh will have a bullish engulfing candle on mthly chart.
Very strong reversal signal.

Sifu said
If fed continue to raise rate.Bond will explode.
If it happen all fund in banking and insurance will run to plantation.
As plantation is oversold,resilient in all crisis,high dividend yield like bank,cheap,huge in capital size which is enough to hold the bucket from escaping fund.

IF FED CUT OR STOP RATE. FUNDS FROM BANKING WILL RUN TOO AS VALUATION PEAK.
SO WHAT DO YOU THINK.

Sifu said

In palm oil stock history.
After mthly chart breakout ,it will have a huge retrracement of 6 mths.
After that it will resume its testing of previous high in 6 mths time.
It will hover there band trading for 6 mths.
After that it will break all time high. 2023 probably will see break all time high.

Sifu said.

During war and financial crisis.
Energy ,food and necessity metals and commodities are real money.

Sifu is correct again.

Usd is crashing.Bond is crashing.
Financial crisis is coming.
Commodity is spiking again.
Cpo above 4k again as predicted by sifu.
Fed would be nuts to keep on rate hike.
They will be dead before other countries explode this time if they keep on rate hike.
Their inflation excuse is just a smokescreen.
Now if they continue rate hike.
Commodity will rise because of bond explode.
If they discontinue rate hike.
Commodity will rise due to QE.
So either way commodity will rise.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/indonesias-august-palm-oil-exports-433-million-tonnes-association-3001626

Meanwhile in August, the world's biggest palm oil exporter produced 4.31 million tonnes of crude palm oil and kernel oil, up from 3.8 million tonnes in July.

The jump in exports, however, has helped cut stocks to 4.04 million tonnes by the end of August, compared to 5.91 million tonnes a month earlier.

By now in Oct. Indonesia stockpile would have already dropped below 4 tons.
There is no more stockpile glut anymore and back to normal.
Indonesia will soon give huge discount no more since no more glut.
No reason for the wide discount with other vegetable oil.

Sifu said.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/10/13/plantations-defensive-amid-uncertainty

When you see these news, you smell where the big fund is going.
Why is kyy suddenly shouting bearish on palm oil now.

Palm oil is the only sector that thrive amid covid,ukraine war and fed crazy rate hike and coming financial crisis while had not been bought up by big fund.

Global finance vs global energy: who will come out on top?
https://thecradle.co/Article/analysis/16825

Long term case for usd is bearish as deglobalisation and dedollarisation speeds up.
Long term bull case for commodity as western colonial ways of sourcing cheap commodity using usd hegemony is over.
Now is commodity producing country against western power.
Even indonesia a major commodity country is ditching usd now.

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/economics/bank-indonesia-calls-against-payments-in-us-dollars

You can suppress demand for a while but not forever.
When demand rebound the price is going higher then before just like post covid.

Sifu said every palm oil importer are busy stocking up before indonesia implement b40.
According to history,price rose 20 to 30% before b20 and b30.

Sifu is correct.
Usd double topping signal appear.
Commodity double bottom signal appear.

Sifu is correct again.
Interest rate hike cant solve inflation.
But will prolong inflation by destroying supply chain further with tight liquidity.

Very soon fed will come out with excusses again to reduce reliance on interest rate .Biden will come out other pattern to reduce inflation.

The retire sifu got no student or followers.
He said he doesnt need them.

A quick guide.

When indonesia implement B20 bio diesel
cpo shoot past 2k
When implement b30
Cpo shoot past 3k
B40 implementing in dec
Cpo will maintain above 4k
If indonesia implement b50 in a few yrs
Indonesia stockpile will fall below 1 million ton
And not enough for export unless production is increase.

PALM OIL'S WIDENING DISCOUNT TO SOYOIL TO BOOST FOURTH QUARTER DEMAND

10/11/2022

MUMBAI, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Global palm oil purchases are rising this quarter as buyers take advantage of the tropical oil's widening discount to rival soyoil which should entice price sensitive consumers and boost biofuel usage, according to senior industry officials.

The highest discount in a decade would divert demand towards palm oil from soyoil and sunflower oil and help top producer Indonesia and Malaysia bring down stockpiles that were weighing on the benchmark futures..

Palm oil for shipment to India in November is being offered at $941 a tonne including cost, insurance and freight (CIF), compared with $1,364 for crude soyoil, according to six palm oil traders that participate in the market. That $423 discount is the most in 10 years, the dealers said.

Sunflower oil is being offered at $1,400 a tonne, the dealers said. A year ago, palm oil's discount to soyoil was around $100 per tonne.

"Palm oil demand has been rising from almost every country. Traders are buying more either for food purpose or for biofuels," said Pradeep Chowdhry, managing director of Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt Ltd, a leading Indian importer.

Top palm oil producer Indonesia's efforts to bring down stockpile by increasing exports are keeping the prices under pressure for the time being even as rival oils are moving higher, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.

Indonesia's palm oil stockpiles at the end of July rose to 5.91 million tonnes from around 4 million tonnes at the end of 2021 as Jakarta imposed restrictions on exports in the first half of 2022.

Palm oil's hefty discount is now prompting key buyers such as India, Pakistan, the European Union and Bangladesh to increase purchases for shipments for the quarter ending in December, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.

India's palm oil imports in September jumped to 1.2 million tonnes, the highest in a year, and the country could import 3 million tonnes in the fourth quarter, the dealer said.

BIOFUEL DEMAND

The rebound in global energy prices, which rose further after a decision by major oil producers to cut output, has also increased palm oil consumption for biofuels.

"Lots of palm oil is getting consumed for energy purpose since there is tight supply of heating oil and diesel in Europe," said Chowdhry of Gemini.

European buyers are making palm oil purchases for November and December shipments as blending palm oil has become profitable because of the rally in energy prices, said a senior official with a Malaysian palm oil producer.

Soyoil prices have been supported by high consumption in the United States for biodiesel and that is keeping soyoil's premium intact, the official said.

Soybean oil is used as a feed stock to produce biodiesel.

In the past few months China's palm oil buying was lower than the last year, but this could jump in coming months as stocks are running low, said a Kuala Lumpur-based palm oil trader.

"Chinese buyers have started making inquiries. They are interested in palm oil since other oils are very expensive," the dealer said.

Robust shipments in the fourth quarter will bring down stocks in producing countries and that will eventually move palm oil prices higher, said Chowdhry of Gemini.

"The current discount would go with falling stocks and we could see a normal discount of around $200,"

When fed increase rate. Usd cant break new high while palm oil cant break new low. Divergent.
Theres not much room for fed.
What will happen if fed stop increase rate and start decrease rate.

Time will tell.
Lets see in 2023.

As predicted by sifu.

TECH IS GLOVE 2.0. Tech pe shld be 7 to 10.
Any above are bubble.
A 5 yrs downtrend is coming for tech.
Next to crash is banking as financial crisis is coming.

Plantation is the only safe haven and defensive investment.
2023 onward is the year for food and agriculture.
5 yrs bull trend is coming

JAKARTA, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Indonesia has raised its 2022 biodiesel allocation to 11.03 million kilolitres amid expectations of rising demand in the fourth quarter while it extends an export levy waiver to maintain price stability, a senior minister said on Monday.

The allocation of biodiesel, which is made from palm oil in Indonesia, will be increased from 10.15 million kilolitres, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, said in a statement.

Indonesia has a mandatory B30 programme, where 30% of the fuel is palm-oil based, and post-pandemic economic recovery is boosting demand for the fuel, he said.

The world's top palm oil producer has also decided to extend its export levy waiver until Oct. 31, Airlangga added.

"The extension of $0 levy is intended to maintain the current momentum, where the price of crude palm oil is starting to stabilise, the price of cooking oil starts to fall, and the price of fresh fruit bunches begins to rise," he said.

The world's top palm oil exporter has waived palm oil export levy since mid-July to encourage export of the edible oil amid a build-up of domestic stock caused by an export ban in May that was imposed to control cooking oil prices. The finance ministry regulation detailing the levy waiver extension has not yet been made public.