We will start to see many biofuel refinery plant coming onlinestarting in 2023 to 2030.

Europe’s oil majors investing eight times more in biofuels than hydrogen

Around 75% of the refining sector’s €39bn of planned investments in alternative fuels up to 2030 will go towards increasing biofuels production, according to new research from NGO Transport & Environment.


Europe’s oil majors are investing eight times more in biofuels than in hydrogen, according to a new study on behalf of the Brussels-based NGO Transport & Environment (T&E).

Around 75% of the European refining sector’s €39bn ($42.23bn) of planned investments in alternative fuels up to 2030 will go towards increasing biofuels production, states the report. Between €2bn and €3bn will be invested in new hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) plants, doubling production capacity of this advanced biofuel to ten megatonnes by 2030. This is four times higher than what can be sustainably sourced in the EU, according to T&E’s analysis. It warns of mass imports of “dubious” used cooking oil as feedstock from abroad.


Verdict: To the oil giants, biofuel is their greatest immediate threat and also greatest business opportunity as the ready market is so huge.

Ambank u turn so fast . No more 89 sen tp already?
Obviously already cleared all their position in call warrant.
Slowly all other issuer will give higher tp as they cleared their call warrant position.

Tin model

The main global pricing mechanism for palm oil now is the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, an exchange located in Malaysia, the second-largest supplier of the tropical oil. Palm oil products are listed on two exchanges in Indonesia, the Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange and Jakarta Futures Exchange.

Indonesia’s plan for palm oil pricing echoes an earlier one for tin, of which the country is also a leading global supplier. The government requires all tin exports to be traded first on the ICDX, a rule imposed to create a “reasonable” price and support a push for shipments of more processed products.

The regulatory agency is planning to use tin as a model for palm, with modifications, and will seek the opinions of stakeholders including the agriculture ministry, the industry ministry and industry associations.

Tin price went from 17k to 31k since Indonesia new Tin policy.

TSH is now net cash.
With sustaining high vege oil price in future, TSH is now generating 100 mil positive cash flow per qtr.
able to set aside 2 to 3 sen dividend(30 to 40 mil cash) per qtr.
1 yr is 8 to 12 sen dividend translating to 7.5 to 11 % dividend yield at current price.
Not much down side.
Even at rm2 still got 3.7 to 5.5% yield.

https://www.iea.org/reports/is-the-biofuel-industry-approaching-a-feedstock-crunch

Biodiesel, renewable diesel and biojet fuel producers are headed for a feedstock supply crunch during 2022-2027 if current trends do not change. In our main case, demand for vegetable oil, waste and residue oils and fats increases 56% to 79 million tonnes over the forecast period.

Fuels made from wastes and residues are in particularly high demand because they satisfy GHG and feedstock policy objectives in the United States and Europe. In fact, wastes and residues are expected to be used for 13% of biofuel production in 2027, up from 9% in 2021.

However, demand is approaching the supply limits of the most-used wastes and residues. Nevertheless, markets are dynamic.

"High prices " are a signal to seek out new supplies,

which is prompting the development of government programmes and industry innovation to help avoid the crunch.

VERDICT:
High prices of feedstock like palmoil is needed.

Usd will break new low in the next decades after breaking 20 yrs high.
As usd ponzi scheme is cracking.Fed cant print unlimited money to fund their expenses.
Meaning a super bullish decade for commodity.
Bank negara already stop rate hike due to strong ringgit.
Eventually they will start cut rate to avoid ringgit become too strong .
This will boost cpo price and stock market.
Meaning all stock price  will go higher.
Meaning Tsh price will rise together in that environment.

https://en.antaranews.com/news/269898/indonesia-to-stop-fossil-fuel-imports-by-2045-pandjaitan

Jakarta (ANTARA) - Indonesia will not import fossil fuels from 2045 as it will have developed the potential of palm oil as an alternative fuel by then, Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, has informed.

"We are currently researching (the potential of) palm oil because we believe that we will be able to produce around 100 million tons of palm oil by 2045,” he said in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday local time.

He made the statement during a presentation entitled “Indonesia Zero Pathway: Opportunity & Challenges” at the Indonesian Pavilion at the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting 2023.

At least 30 percent of palm oil production will be used for the food industry, while the remaining 70 percent will be used to manufacture ethanol, the coordinating minister said.

"Thus, we will not need to import fossil fuel at that time (by 2045)," he added.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/indonesia-aims-launch-palm-oil-benchmark-price-june-trade-minister-3217026

This mean that indonesia will call the shot in pricing cpo.
With indonesia resource downstreaming policy and strong demand in palm oil based biofuel.
Hence exporting will turn lesser over time.
Cpo price will be stronger over time.
Malaysia is too weak to dictate cpo price.

Do not forget indonesia will commercial launch palm oil based gasoline in 2024.
Not bio diesel but bio gasoline.
Bio gasoline to be used in Cars and motorbike .

When a healthy money making company trading at under valued price also can be bombarded like its a loss making con job company like SD.
You know they bomb because they need to bomb.
And there sure be golden mine underneath.

TSH is reaping positive 100 mil cash inflow every qtr from normal operation.
1 year 400 mill cash inflow. Even without land disposal. TSH can pay off 1 billion debt in 2 to 3 years time.
Profit or loss can be non cash item affecting.
Making loss still got a lot of cash can give dividend.
Making profit can be out of cash and never give dividend.
If a company got very strong positive cash flow but profit is lacklustre then is golden time to buy when ignorant are throwing.

JPMorgan Chase: It is recommended to sell US stocks and increase its holdings of commodities, the analyst team led by Marko Kolanovic, chief global market strategist at JPMorgan Chase, released a report saying that the latest US stock market The round of rebound is coming to an end, now it is recommended to sell US stocks and take profits. The team said that all the positive catalysts for the rise of U.S. stocks have been released, but the Federal Reserve and U.S. companies may still throw several "potential bombs" in the future. The team still recommends overweighting commodities, especially energy commodities

‐-----

Goldman Sachs is bullish on the outlook for global commodities.CREDIT:AP

Currie sees parallels with the record run-up in commodities prices from 2007 to 2008. The only exception, he said, is European natural gas, where inventories look sufficient to get through this year.

Goldman raised its price forecasts for aluminium on Sunday, saying higher demand in Europe and China could lead to supply shortages. The bank predicted a multiyear commodities supercycle in late 2020 as years of under-investment prevent supply from keeping pace with demand.

Yet oil has had a rocky start to 2023, capped by fears over a potential recession in the US and China’s shaky progress in reopening its economy from COVID-related lockdowns. Traders are also tracking the impact of sanctions on Russian oil and product flows. Brent crude futures traded near $US84 a barrel in London.

‘You cannot come up with a more bullish concoction for commodities.’

TSH NTA increased to 1.70
Pb ratio drop to 0.63.
Will be reflected in nex qtr result.
Based on 0.7 pb ratio as of today price should adjust to 1.20 to reflect by then.

2023 will be a ‘Goldilocks’ year for commodities, says Goldman Sachs

Commodities have the strongest outlook of any asset class in 2023, with a perfect macroeconomic environment and critically low inventories for almost every key raw material, according to the head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs.

This year has started with a pullback in prices driven by warm weather shock and rising interest rates, Jeff Currie said at a presentation in London on Monday. But demand in China starting to rebound and there’s insufficient investment in supply, meaning the year as a whole will be a “Goldilocks” moment for rising prices, he said.

“You cannot come up with a more bullish concoction for commodities,” Currie said. “Lack of supply is apparent in every single market you look at, whether it is inventories at critical operating levels or production capacity exhausted.”








Goldman Sachs is bullish on the outlook for global commodities.

Currie sees parallels with the record run-up in commodities prices from 2007 to 2008. The only exception, he said, is European natural gas, where inventories look sufficient to get through this year.

Goldman raised its price forecasts for aluminium on Sunday, saying higher demand in Europe and China could lead to supply shortages. The bank predicted a multiyear commodities supercycle in late 2020 as years of under-investment prevent supply from keeping pace with demand.

Yet oil has had a rocky start to 2023, capped by fears over a potential recession in the US and China’s shaky progress in reopening its economy from COVID-related lockdowns. Traders are also tracking the impact of sanctions on Russian oil and product flows. Brent crude futures traded near $US84 a barrel in London.

‘You cannot come up with a more bullish concoction for commodities.’

Goldman Sachs head of commodities research Jeff Currie

Natural gas prices in Europe dropped to the lowest since September 2021 on Monday, despite the arrival of a cold snap, as liquefied natural gas continued to flood into the continent due to lack of competition from China, where stockpiles of the fuel are full.

This could all change later in the year if a robust recovery in Chinese demand combines with the end interest-rate hikes in major Western economies, Currie said.
“Does anyone remember what happened to oil prices from January of ’07 to July of ’08?” Currie said. “The Fed takes their foot off the brake, China puts the pedal to the metal, Europe starts to grow quickly” and oil prices rose by $US100 a barrel, he said

As said before,Nusantara theme may be late but it will come.
Indonesia is going to be top 5 economy in 20 years time.
The land value in Nusantara will grow by leaps and bound and no turning back.
The diverging movement of TSH to other plantation counter shows that investors are buying into its future exposure of booming Nusantara and Indonesia .
Company with exposure to indonesia will do very well in future.
Even Malaysia is smart enough to be the 1st mover this time.
Nearly 200 malaysia investors shown interest investing in Nusantara.

https://en.tempo.co/read/1663223/nearly-200-malaysian-investors-interested-in-indonesias-new-capital-project-minister-basuki

Malaysia is learning from Indonesia to transform from resource exporting  to resource 'downstreaming'.
Attracting more company to invest in malaysia to encourage investment in local downstream industries for natural resources like palm oil.

To kickstart,raise your biofuel mandate to 10,15 20 and eventually match indonesia b35 asap.This will also soak up demand if ban export to eu .


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/indonesia-exports-could-hit-us300b-2024-spurred-resource-downstreaming

Luhut said the government was working on a downstreaming plan to develop an industry that would process bauxite, copper, tin and, later on, palm oil, into higher value products, replicating the success of the nickel export ban.

"Our exports last year was US$232 billion. This year maybe US$280 billion. Maybe by 2024, I think we can reach US$300 billion or more," Luhut told Reuters.

"If this (downstreaming) works, by 2024, our economic growth will be exponential," he said, adding that Indonesia's gross domestic product could reach US$3.5 trillion by 2030, almost tripling from the current US$1.19 trillion in 2021.

Boss parked for 2 days to buy but no one want to sell down what to do.
If boss collect enough means good to go.

Give something for others to attack. If not their life very boring.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/01/12/tesla-nears-deal-to-build-production-facilities-in-indonesia--bloomberg-news

TESLA
INDONESIA
NUSANTARA VALUE SKYROCKET....?

If you haven notice.the boss is parking everyday to eat up all the margin trader tickets being forcesell in the morning and afternoon but is getting thinner as all give up waiting. Idss tickets impatient seller slowly baiting them to sell. All ta trader selling on major resistance are also slowly eaten up.

Tsh attracts only patient investor.
Punters or traders on margin will end up sell their chips to boss.
Rss and idss and impatient ones will help grow boss ownership.
Slow n steady.

Tne non stop buying by boss already stop all call warrant issue since sept 2022 on tsh. The bankers got the message.
That is when tsh started reversel on 1 oct at 90 sen.

From 5 min , 15 min, 60 min, daily wkly mthly macd all above 0 axis.
Very strong indicator. Slow and steady.


Qtrly and half yearly haven shown reversel from down trend.
Qtrly macd already GC in 2022 march.
Half yealy will GC soon.
Yearly chart had turn red to green in homily.Ending down trend in yearly chart.
2023,2024 will be strong year for TSH, that explain why boss keep buying 500k.
Shortsighted Epf already taken out in 2022.
Boss is now slowly taking out weak shareholders.
No matter is top 5 or top 10 holders.Rss ,Idss, or retailers like you and me.
The boss want all your share.

If you found a property which is worth 2.5 to 3 million ringit(valued based on latest land sale) but is selling at 500k.
Will you buy?
Of course not probably the house is haunted u may think.
If the said property is giving 10% rental yield as well.
Will you buy?
May be.
If you got 500k everyday refreshed in your bank account what will you buy?

Tsh director answered the above q by buying Tsh ,everyday with 500k.

TSH is the only plantation stock which director bought everyday for 500k for the past 6 mths.

TSH is the only bursa stock which director bought everyday for 500k for the past 6 mths.

May be already break the longest record in bursa history everyday sbb by director with own money.

Let see whether he will bring this record to 1 year nonstop sbb.

Market had been successfully condition to support tech and new economy for past decade.
Now they will be recondition to support old economy for the next 2 to 3 years.
It will be painful to recondition.
As usual , if tech is the previous market leader. The next market leader will not be tech.
Old economy give way to nurture new economy.
When new economy hits limit.
It will give way to nurture old economy.
Old nurture new.New nurtures old.

Because nobody interested in plantation making alot of cash.Thats why it is safe and slowly going up.

Because of massive retailers habitual supporting of tech.It is risky and going down.Tesla will start attracting massive retailers and tech lovers at around 100 region.Until it is lucrative enough for the sharks, they will be culled for road trip below 100.
It will be assisted with apple down trend.

When you see massive spamming and negativity but price is going up instead of going down, you know the stock is fundamentally strong and all bad news is priced in.

if 2022 close nice.
TSH yearly chart will give a multi year bull run set up.
last time this set up was drawn.
TSH share price rose 10x over 10 years.

TSH reverse Head and Shoulder going break out.
daily wkly mthly going back above long term bull trend.

Many years ago.Average tech pe is around 7 to 10. Since when tech pe is around 20 to 100. Yes, since qe started.
Now back to square one. Low interest rate era is dead and time to wake up.

Their intention is to bury all comment with spam.
So that no one can read anything .
Hence repetitive spam all days long.

By jun next year .Boss would have sbb over 100 million share.
Public float will drop below 30%.Retailer getting crowded out.

Cant imagine tesla dropping to usd50 next year.
Retailers still love tech. More to drop.

Some note on few top  shareholders disposing as highlighted by some naysayers.


1.They dispose and boss buy back. So no effect. You can go around see in bursa any boss buy back all the share dispose by other top holding shareholder.
So far i cannot find any.

2.After they dispose what they gonna do you do not know. But only thing they can do is only buy and cannot sell anymore.

3.After their dispose the boss will definetly reward shareholder more because he invested alot more now.So can expect a higher return to shareholder going forward as it turn net cash generating machine like inno.

4. A pb 2.5x inno with a 0.69x pb tsh means the boss is pushing up inno while collecting tsh. Probably a distribute of inno to shareholder is warranted in future.

5. 0.69x pb for tsh means a lot of growth for tsh infuture as tsh got more undeveloped and maturing plant compared to inno.

6.Back in 2020 when inno is at 30 sen pb below 0.5.If someone tell you inno gonna be 1.50 pb 2.6.Probably will be laughed at and repeatedly scorned.

2 billion more by 2050.
70 million more humans per year x avg consumtion 14.39 kg
=1 billion kg more  of edible oil needed Every year.
600 million kg from palm oil.

We need 20 billion kg more of edible oil by 2050.
12 billion kg will come from palm oil.

Why palm oil is key for food security and sustainability

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1085493/why-palm-oil-is-key-for-food-security-and-sustainability

Among the main knock-on concerns associated with a worsening climate is its implications on our food security. Put simply, the United Nations estimates that by 2050, the world must feed two billion more people, when food demand will be 56% greater than in 2010.

Ultimately, what does this mean for you, the consumer? The WWF recommends that "the best thing we can do is support sustainable palm oil and avoid boycotts, since we know substitutions with other vegetable oils can lead to even further environmental and social harm".

So, if sustainability matters to you, choose certified-sustainable palm oil.

When indonesia become top 5 largest economy in future.
What is the land price in nusantara?
Just keep some tsh for your children,they will be grateful to you.

All these anti palm oil warcry are just political gimmicks to raise stakes before final negotiation conclude after wto decision in few wks time.
And ignorant will think its the end of palm oil and smart fund will be prepared to move in.

EU need diversify reliance on russia china and usa. And asean its very important to them.Indonesia gonna be top 5 largest economy in the world in 2050.
They cannot afford to lose their market.

Eventually they will sign FTA with indonesia and malaysia and their certified palm oil will be free to trade again.

Must be forward looking.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-begins-buying-back-oil-strategic-reserve-official-2022-12-16/

Oil price final support reached also mean Palm oil support reach.

Now Mistry start to believe 4 to 5k for palm oil instead of 2500 like the naysayers.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1085393/mistry-predicts-a-jump-in-palm-oil-on-indonesian-biofuel-mandate
Mistry predicts a jump in palm oil on Indonesian biofuel mandate.
The most-consumed cooking oil may trade between RM3,500 and RM5,000 a ton between now and the end of May, unless the war in Ukraine ends, said Mistry, who has been trading palm for about four decades.

2023 1.88 can or not?
If 2022 close well. Then tsh is obeying mthly upward channel and will definetly test rm2.00.
The worry is can anyone hold til then ?
Best wish is all jump ship before 1.20 now.
So can make an easy job for boss.
So naysayers please do your job.

Expect 2023 could be a year of opportunity and turnaround for plantation sector as EU change its stand against Palm oil. The long hanging issue behind palm oil for past decades will be over. Fund will be moving in this underinvested sector for the past decade.

www.dw.com/en/eu-races-to-strengthen-trade-and-diplomatic-ties-with-indonesia/a-63367502

End of bad blood

Things are changing. "Our engagement with Indonesia has probably never been so intensive," a European Commission spokesperson told DW.

A surge of diplomatic visits kicked off in June 2021 when Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, made Jakarta the first port of call in his maiden Southeast Asian visit. He returned for a second visit, to Bali, in July this year.

Because of its role as G20 president for 2022, Indonesia has also received an unprecedented number of high-profile EU visits, including from Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU trade commissioner, who last month said from Jakarta that he expects both sides to agree terms on a free-trade deal by 2024.

EU-Indonesia relations have soured over a handful of trade disputes, most of which have gone to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for review. Yet tensions are expected to ease once the WTO makes its recommendations by the end of the year.

Widodo said in early September that he expects his country to lose in its trade dispute against the EU over Indonesia's 2020 ban on exports of nickel ore. The WTO formed a panel overseeing this dispute in April last year. A final report is expected in the last quarter of 2022.

The WTO is also expected to announce its decision by the end of the year over Indonesia's case against the EU's decision to phase out imports of palm oil imports by 2030. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of palm oil, which Brussels has designated as a non-renewable fuel.

Once these disputes are settled, analysts reckon that discussions between EU and Indonesian officials can turn to issues where both sides see eye to eye, such as on the long-awaited free-trade deal. With Indonesia taking over as ASEAN chair next year, there is even more impetus on Brussels to cooperate if it wants to continue building good ties in the region.

Basically, you wont see indonesia stockpile running high again. If china demand pick up strongly after reopening ,stockpile may drop to tight situation again. B40 will be implemented after they fine tune the formulation and increases production to avoid serious shortage in future.

To put the policy change into perspective, the increase in the blending mandate is expected to increase domestic Indonesian biodiesel demand 18% from 11 million KL to 13 million KL, which translates into around 1.8mmt of extra palm oil (CPO) consumption in 2023. (assuming that the 13,000,000KL target is met).

Increased domestic Indonesian palm oil demand will reduce the volume available for export from one of the worlds largest palm oil producers, and plans to increase the blending mandate further, to 40% indicate further increases in demand. This policy has provided support to the palm oil price in 2023, and will help it weather the storm of regulatory headwinds coming out of the EU. This is likely to generate sustained upward pressure on the price of other oilseeds such as canola into the future.

Expecting a FTA to be signed between Indonesia and EU in future. Palm oil will be allowed to be exported again to EU.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2022/07/22/out-of-sudden-eu-asean-plan-leaders-summit-in-december.html
The palm oil diplomacy will give Indonesia, as well as Malaysia, a chance to raise its bargaining power in any negotiation on trade restrictions with a weakening EU. The same rule also applies to Indonesian coal.

The EU has agreed to accelerate a free trade agreement (FTA) with ASEAN, a significant change from its traditional preference of having an FTA with individual ASEAN member states. With Indonesia, for example, the EU has yet to complete FTA negotiations, especially in resolving disputes over palm oil.


https://www.thejakartapost.com/paper/2022/12/16/jokowi-sticks-up-for-palm-oil-nickel-policy-at-eu-asean-summit.html

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has taken a more outspoken stance against the European Union’s efforts to impose its own sustainability standards on trade with ASEAN, insisting at a summit on Wednesday that it would have to treat the bloc as an equal if it wanted to build a better partnership.

His remarks, delivered at a special EU-ASEAN Summit to celebrate 45 years of their dialogue partnership, comes amid disagreements over EU environmental and trade policies, as well as efforts to conclude a trade deal that has languished for 15 years.

Southeast Asia, Jokowi said, had become a world economic powerhouse and so a partnership with ASEAN would benefit the EU. But going forward, he asserted, Europe would have to let ASEAN nations to do what was necessary to develop their own economies.

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2022/12/16/end-of-eus-dictation-jakarta-post

Its Official

JAKARTA : Indonesia is set to raise mandatory biodiesel blending to 35per cent starting January 1, 2023, to reduce fuel imports amid high global energy prices and to shift to cleaner energy, the energy ministry said on Friday.

The world's biggest palm oil producer has since 2020 implemented the B30 programme, which mandates fossil gasoil to be blended with 30per cent palm oil-based fuel, and has been planning to increase the use of palm-based fuel.

"The estimated demand for biodiesel to support B35 implementation is 13.15 million kilolitres, or around a 19per cent increase compared to 2022 allocation of 11.03 million kilolitres," energy ministry spokesperson Agung Pribadi said in a statement on Friday.

Indonesia is estimated to consume 37.58 million kilolitres of diesel next year, of which 35per cent will be supplied by palm-based biodiesel.

The country's biodiesel industry has an installed capacity of 16.65 million kilolitres, the energy ministry said.

The energy ministry also set a new specification to improve the standards for biodiesel to assure consumers that higher biodiesel blending would not affect engine performance.

The government has been running road tests for biodiesel that is 40per cent palm oil since July 2022 and is expected to conclude the trial by end of this year.

Tsh and inno both run by same boss.

Inno zero debt .PB is 2.4 x. Price at 1.54
Tsh zero debt soon.PB is 0.69. Price at 1.04.

Eventually boss target could be
TSH zero debt
PB 2.4
Price at 3.60

Drama at dnex is a sign of downtrend in malaysia tech industry.
Dnex is going to be a showcase to international investor that malaysia tech is next golden goose that unseen hand is killing.
Be cautious decades of uptrend in tech means alot of selling off on every rebound.Bankers simply got too much chip accumulated over past decade to dispose so they will fake bull trap to dispose.

Indonesia has mandated that aviation fuel must be blended at a rate of 5% (B5) by 2025.

We are looking at the day where waste and used cooking oil price is higher than cpo in future. And will give a strong support to cpo price.
Thats the power of greenflation.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2400935-viewpoint-asian-biofuels-breaking-away-from-europe

Wonder how are they gonna find all the feedstock as it is limited and sold out.
Probably learn from the chinese mixing non food grade palm oil with used cooking oil.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1083809/petronas-eni-euglena-explore-biorefinery-feasibility-in-pengerang

Guarantee they cannot find enough feeedstock in future.
All efb and waste from plantation company are sold out.
Suggest they look into producing industrial vegetable oil IVO from ffb like indonesia for stable supply and growing market.

Looking at big q in klk. Big fund is going in plantation.