Sifu said

Most likely Tsh will have a bullish engulfing candle on mthly chart.
Very strong reversal signal.

Sifu said
If fed continue to raise rate.Bond will explode.
If it happen all fund in banking and insurance will run to plantation.
As plantation is oversold,resilient in all crisis,high dividend yield like bank,cheap,huge in capital size which is enough to hold the bucket from escaping fund.

IF FED CUT OR STOP RATE. FUNDS FROM BANKING WILL RUN TOO AS VALUATION PEAK.
SO WHAT DO YOU THINK.

Sifu said

In palm oil stock history.
After mthly chart breakout ,it will have a huge retrracement of 6 mths.
After that it will resume its testing of previous high in 6 mths time.
It will hover there band trading for 6 mths.
After that it will break all time high. 2023 probably will see break all time high.

Sifu said.

During war and financial crisis.
Energy ,food and necessity metals and commodities are real money.

Sifu is correct again.

Usd is crashing.Bond is crashing.
Financial crisis is coming.
Commodity is spiking again.
Cpo above 4k again as predicted by sifu.
Fed would be nuts to keep on rate hike.
They will be dead before other countries explode this time if they keep on rate hike.
Their inflation excuse is just a smokescreen.
Now if they continue rate hike.
Commodity will rise because of bond explode.
If they discontinue rate hike.
Commodity will rise due to QE.
So either way commodity will rise.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/indonesias-august-palm-oil-exports-433-million-tonnes-association-3001626

Meanwhile in August, the world's biggest palm oil exporter produced 4.31 million tonnes of crude palm oil and kernel oil, up from 3.8 million tonnes in July.

The jump in exports, however, has helped cut stocks to 4.04 million tonnes by the end of August, compared to 5.91 million tonnes a month earlier.

By now in Oct. Indonesia stockpile would have already dropped below 4 tons.
There is no more stockpile glut anymore and back to normal.
Indonesia will soon give huge discount no more since no more glut.
No reason for the wide discount with other vegetable oil.

Sifu said.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/10/13/plantations-defensive-amid-uncertainty

When you see these news, you smell where the big fund is going.
Why is kyy suddenly shouting bearish on palm oil now.

Palm oil is the only sector that thrive amid covid,ukraine war and fed crazy rate hike and coming financial crisis while had not been bought up by big fund.

Global finance vs global energy: who will come out on top?
https://thecradle.co/Article/analysis/16825

Long term case for usd is bearish as deglobalisation and dedollarisation speeds up.
Long term bull case for commodity as western colonial ways of sourcing cheap commodity using usd hegemony is over.
Now is commodity producing country against western power.
Even indonesia a major commodity country is ditching usd now.

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/economics/bank-indonesia-calls-against-payments-in-us-dollars

You can suppress demand for a while but not forever.
When demand rebound the price is going higher then before just like post covid.

Sifu said every palm oil importer are busy stocking up before indonesia implement b40.
According to history,price rose 20 to 30% before b20 and b30.

Sifu is correct.
Usd double topping signal appear.
Commodity double bottom signal appear.

Sifu is correct again.
Interest rate hike cant solve inflation.
But will prolong inflation by destroying supply chain further with tight liquidity.

Very soon fed will come out with excusses again to reduce reliance on interest rate .Biden will come out other pattern to reduce inflation.

The retire sifu got no student or followers.
He said he doesnt need them.

A quick guide.

When indonesia implement B20 bio diesel
cpo shoot past 2k
When implement b30
Cpo shoot past 3k
B40 implementing in dec
Cpo will maintain above 4k
If indonesia implement b50 in a few yrs
Indonesia stockpile will fall below 1 million ton
And not enough for export unless production is increase.

PALM OIL'S WIDENING DISCOUNT TO SOYOIL TO BOOST FOURTH QUARTER DEMAND

10/11/2022

MUMBAI, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Global palm oil purchases are rising this quarter as buyers take advantage of the tropical oil's widening discount to rival soyoil which should entice price sensitive consumers and boost biofuel usage, according to senior industry officials.

The highest discount in a decade would divert demand towards palm oil from soyoil and sunflower oil and help top producer Indonesia and Malaysia bring down stockpiles that were weighing on the benchmark futures..

Palm oil for shipment to India in November is being offered at $941 a tonne including cost, insurance and freight (CIF), compared with $1,364 for crude soyoil, according to six palm oil traders that participate in the market. That $423 discount is the most in 10 years, the dealers said.

Sunflower oil is being offered at $1,400 a tonne, the dealers said. A year ago, palm oil's discount to soyoil was around $100 per tonne.

"Palm oil demand has been rising from almost every country. Traders are buying more either for food purpose or for biofuels," said Pradeep Chowdhry, managing director of Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt Ltd, a leading Indian importer.

Top palm oil producer Indonesia's efforts to bring down stockpile by increasing exports are keeping the prices under pressure for the time being even as rival oils are moving higher, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.

Indonesia's palm oil stockpiles at the end of July rose to 5.91 million tonnes from around 4 million tonnes at the end of 2021 as Jakarta imposed restrictions on exports in the first half of 2022.

Palm oil's hefty discount is now prompting key buyers such as India, Pakistan, the European Union and Bangladesh to increase purchases for shipments for the quarter ending in December, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.

India's palm oil imports in September jumped to 1.2 million tonnes, the highest in a year, and the country could import 3 million tonnes in the fourth quarter, the dealer said.

BIOFUEL DEMAND

The rebound in global energy prices, which rose further after a decision by major oil producers to cut output, has also increased palm oil consumption for biofuels.

"Lots of palm oil is getting consumed for energy purpose since there is tight supply of heating oil and diesel in Europe," said Chowdhry of Gemini.

European buyers are making palm oil purchases for November and December shipments as blending palm oil has become profitable because of the rally in energy prices, said a senior official with a Malaysian palm oil producer.

Soyoil prices have been supported by high consumption in the United States for biodiesel and that is keeping soyoil's premium intact, the official said.

Soybean oil is used as a feed stock to produce biodiesel.

In the past few months China's palm oil buying was lower than the last year, but this could jump in coming months as stocks are running low, said a Kuala Lumpur-based palm oil trader.

"Chinese buyers have started making inquiries. They are interested in palm oil since other oils are very expensive," the dealer said.

Robust shipments in the fourth quarter will bring down stocks in producing countries and that will eventually move palm oil prices higher, said Chowdhry of Gemini.

"The current discount would go with falling stocks and we could see a normal discount of around $200,"

When fed increase rate. Usd cant break new high while palm oil cant break new low. Divergent.
Theres not much room for fed.
What will happen if fed stop increase rate and start decrease rate.

Time will tell.
Lets see in 2023.

As predicted by sifu.

TECH IS GLOVE 2.0. Tech pe shld be 7 to 10.
Any above are bubble.
A 5 yrs downtrend is coming for tech.
Next to crash is banking as financial crisis is coming.

Plantation is the only safe haven and defensive investment.
2023 onward is the year for food and agriculture.
5 yrs bull trend is coming

JAKARTA, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Indonesia has raised its 2022 biodiesel allocation to 11.03 million kilolitres amid expectations of rising demand in the fourth quarter while it extends an export levy waiver to maintain price stability, a senior minister said on Monday.

The allocation of biodiesel, which is made from palm oil in Indonesia, will be increased from 10.15 million kilolitres, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, said in a statement.

Indonesia has a mandatory B30 programme, where 30% of the fuel is palm-oil based, and post-pandemic economic recovery is boosting demand for the fuel, he said.

The world's top palm oil producer has also decided to extend its export levy waiver until Oct. 31, Airlangga added.

"The extension of $0 levy is intended to maintain the current momentum, where the price of crude palm oil is starting to stabilise, the price of cooking oil starts to fall, and the price of fresh fruit bunches begins to rise," he said.

The world's top palm oil exporter has waived palm oil export levy since mid-July to encourage export of the edible oil amid a build-up of domestic stock caused by an export ban in May that was imposed to control cooking oil prices. The finance ministry regulation detailing the levy waiver extension has not yet been made public.

Sifu said

2030 ,100 billion yuan biodiesel market .

According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2019, China's diesel consumption in the transportation sector was 98.67 million tons. According to the EU region's 10% biodiesel addition ratio, China's biodiesel demand space can reach 9.867 million tons. According to the 5% addition ratio of B5 biodiesel piloted in Shanghai, there is also nearly 5 million tons of increase in China's biodiesel demand. According to the current price, the domestic demand + export potential market size of China's biodiesel industry in 2030 is close to 100 billion yuan. If China's biodiesel addition policy is successfully implemented, China will turn from an exporter of biodiesel to a huge demand market and importer.

生物柴油出口创新高

一、出口生物柴油创历史新高：据中国海关数据,7月中国生物柴油出口金额3.69亿美元，同比增117%，创历史单月最高。也使得1-7月出口金额达16.4亿美元(2021年全年为17.99亿美元)，，全年历史新高已成定局。

1）欧洲能源危机不断发酵，根据媒体报道以德国为例，目前柴油取暖为大众较为接受的方式之一，其拥有对基础设施要求较低同时具备价格优势，但缺点为需要额外的储藏柴油的空间且味道较重。

二、什么是生物柴油：目前主流的生物柴油主要有：第一代生物柴油是动植物油脂（脂肪酸甘油三酯）与醇类在酸（硫酸）、碱（氢氧化钠，固体碱）、生物酶等物理化学催化作用下发生酯化反应得到脂肪酸甲酯。第二代生物柴油就是通过加氢工艺脱除油脂中的氧和部分碳生成的烃类，其组成和结构与石化柴油类似，但对工艺水平和设备的先进性要求较高。

1）性能上可对石化柴油形成替代：历经多年发展，现阶段生物柴油的燃料特性已与石油基柴油接近，且具备部分备传统石化柴油不具备的优点。其闪点比石化柴油高，更加安全可靠；含硫量低，使得燃烧时SO2和硫化物的排放可减少约30%。不仅可作燃料又可作为添加剂促进燃烧效果，同时更加节能降耗。除了做公交车等柴油机的替代燃料之外，还可以作为海洋运输、燃料发电厂等非道路用柴油机的替代燃料。 



三、欧盟政策加码需求大涨：每使用1吨生物柴油，大约可以减排2-2.5吨二氧化碳。目前，欧盟是全球最大的生物柴油消费市场。由于其在碳减排和环保方面表现优异，欧盟已经把生物燃料作为主要替代能源，相关政策法规陆续出台，鼓励生物柴油市场的发展。

截至2021年欧盟生物柴油行业支持政策

1）值得一提的是由于激进的气候政策，欧盟既目前每年约从外进口生物柴油300 万吨，其中约有30%来自中国，据测算，2030年欧盟生物柴油市场需求有望达到 2200 万吨，其中或将从我国进口300万吨。

2）2021年全球生物柴油消费量为4223.46万吨，过去10年复合增长率 6.14%。欧盟2020年的消费量占全球的35%，美国、印尼分别以19%和16%分列二、三位。 券商预计，至2025年，全球生物柴油产量及消费量将达近5850吨/年和5570吨/年。



2）自2020年年中以来，生物柴油价格上涨明显。2017-2020 年一代生物柴油价格稳定在 900-1000 美元/吨，自2020年5月后迅速上涨，2022年6月9日一代生物柴油（FA­ME）的价格已达到1810美元/吨，较2017年同期价格（882 美元/吨）涨幅超100%。



四、国内市场存巨大潜在需求：2022年出台的《十四五生物经济规划》和《“十四五” 可再生能源发展规划》均提出要鼓励生物柴油行业的发展。目前，上海已经率先试点生物柴油添加政策，2018年开始向社会车辆销售B5生物柴油，截至2020年底，上海已经形成了3个生物柴油调配中心，每年供应40万-60万吨B5柴油，覆盖了市区二百多个加油站，可供应约1400万辆车次。

1）据国家统计局统计，2019年，中国交通运输领域柴油消费量为9867万吨， 按照欧盟地区对柴油中生物柴油10%的添加比例测算，中国生物柴油需求量空间可 达 986.7 万吨。按上海试行的B5生物柴油5%的添加比例测算，中国生物柴油需求量增量空间亦有近 500 万吨，按照现价计算，2030年中国生物柴油行业内需+出口潜在市场规模接近千亿人民币。若中国生物柴油添加政策顺利落地，中国将从生物油脂出口国转而成为巨大的需求市场和进口国。

Sifu said.

Fed hawkish remark slam the stock market but commodity like grains food and energy rally.

Shortsighted policy

The short-term case against commodities playing out in these corrections is the decision by central banks, most notably the Federal Reserve, to prioritise inflation-fighting over growth. Just as Paul Volcker did in the early 1980s, Fed chairman Jay Powell has decided that maximum sustainable employment must for now play second fiddle to the war on prices.

Panadol solution

But there is a longer term case for commodities, made by resources bulls like Goldman Sachs’s Jeff Currie. It pre-dates and will outlast current recession fears.

He argues that Fed-induced slowdowns can only ever tame the symptom — inflation.

They are INCAPABLE of addressing the underlying driver of sustainably higher commodity prices, which is underinvestment in the production of sufficient energy and other resources. The imbalances causing the cost of living crisis are physical and supply-driven. They cannot be resolved by destroying demand.

The world is anyway very different from that of 40 years ago. When Volcker jacked interest rates up to choke off the inflation which had scarred the previous decade, he did so after years of rising capital investment. 

The fall in demand that he engineered combined with adequate supply to quickly bring the market back into balance. That is not the case today after years in which capital has for too long been directed away from real physical assets. We are reaping the harvest of that misallocation.

Higher rate lower Capex. Prolonged supply driven inflation.

A key risk facing policy makers now is that the higher interest rates required to stifle demand will at the same time prevent the investment in new capacity that might solve the supply shortage.

This is a recipe for stagflation — persistently higher prices caused by inadequate supply and flagging demand as central banks double down on their attempt to tame inflation.


Populist policy

And it is not just monetary policy that risks worsening the supply-demand balance and stoking persistent inflation. Fiscal policy, driven as it is by political rather than economic imperatives, is pushing governments to simultaneously support the hardest hit consumers (thus slowing or preventing the required demand destruction) and to impose politically palatable but blunt windfall taxes that reduce the incentive for companies to solve the supply side of the equation.

Greenflation and clmate change

Another reason to expect commodity prices to remain elevated for the foreseeable future is that demand will stay high for reasons that have nothing to do with the economic cycle but instead reflect the unstoppable clean energy transition.

One of the ironies of the move to a more sustainable energy framework is that in the short to medium term it will be extremely resource intensive. Demand for both hydrocarbons (in the form of plastics and other refined products) and for many metals — principally but not exclusively copper — will remain high for many years to come. Unless there is a meaningful supply-side response, the impact on prices is just Economics 101.

Post qe in 2008, between 2010 to 2014 crude oil maintained average around 100 for 5 years.
Probably this time will last 7 years. 2021 to 2027.
High Crude oil  lasted 5 years while high palm oil (2k to 4k) lasted 12 years before broke new high again in 2022.
Crude oil went to negative in 2020(worst in history) but palm oil remain in 2k region never went back to 800.

This is just the beginning of the revenge of old economy.
And all the big fund are gradually moving out from new economy where they had been for the past 15 years.

Vice Chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) Togar Sitanggang said Indonesia needs to increase palm oil production in order to implement B100 mandatory program. The program is estimated to absorb at least 60 million tons palm oil per year. Currently, total production of palm oil, including palm kernel oil,  in Indonesia reached 42 million tons per year from about 15 million hectares plantation. “We produce 42 million tons per year. Whether the number is enough or not, it depends on how we use it. If we use in processed food only, I think it might be enough.
But if we use as source of energy, the number is not enough. If we adopt B100, we need more production.


“At present, we have reached 6.01 million kiloliters B20. Later on, for B30, let’s say it could reach 13 million kiloliters. Then with B100, maybe we will also reduce CPO exports overseas to fulfill domestic needs. We just have to see which countries need Indonesian palm oil,” he said.

During the soft launch and first trial of B100, the minister filled up a four-wheeler tractor with B100 while demonstrating its eco-friendly advantages, such as not producing smoke, to the media.

B100 products are one of the innovations introduced by the Ministry of Agriculture through the Agricultural Research and Development Agency (Balitbangtan). The agency’s researchers developed a multifunctional biodiesel reactor that had reached its 7th generation.

No short q at 1.08 either..likely close above 1.10 today

If you notice no rss idss or pdt today for tsh. Very abnormal.
Probably all short would be covered soon or already covered.

Sifu swid.

Bill gates,Bezo ,Warren etc are investing heavily in old economy like agriculture and oil and gas.Funds are flowings from new economy to old economy gradually in the coming years. Funds of such great magnitude will usually take 3 yrs.

Sifu said.

Us agriculture commodity will break ath in 2023 due to drought climate change and biden clean energy act.
Thqts why bill gates and bezo are largest farmer now in us.

USDA Begins Accepting Applications for $100 Million in Biofuel Infrastructure Grants

Funding Will Increase Availability of Clean Fuels Across the Nation

Release & Contact Info

Press Release

Release No. 0184.22

Contact: USDA Press
Email: press@usda.gov

WASHINGTON, Aug. 23, 2022 – U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Tom Vilsack today announced that USDA is accepting applications for $100 million in grants to increase the sale and use of biofuels derived from U.S. agricultural products.

USDA is making the funding available through the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program (HBIIP). This program seeks to market higher blends of ethanol and biodiesel by sharing the costs to build and retrofit biofuel-related infrastructure such as pumps, dispensers and storage tanks.

“The Biden-Harris Administration recognizes that rural America is the key to reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and giving Americans cleaner, more affordable options at the pump,” Vilsack said. “Biofuels are homegrown fuels. Expanding the availability of higher-blend fuels is a win for American farmers, the rural economy and hardworking Americans who pay the price here at home when we depend on volatile fuel sources overseas.”

This additional funding follows an April investment of $5.6 million through HBIIP that is expected to increase the availability of biofuels by 59.5 million gallons per year in California, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, New York and South Dakota.

In June, USDA also announced that it had provided $700 million in relief funding to more than 100 biofuel producers in 25 states who experienced market losses due to the pandemic.

These investments reflect the goals of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which addresses immediate economic needs and includes the largest ever federal investment in clean energy for the future. The law includes another $500 million aimed at increasing the sale and use of agricultural commodity-based fuels. This funding will allow USDA to provide additional grants for infrastructure improvements related to blending, storing, supplying and distributing biofuels.

Gas prices continue to fall, at the fastest pace in over a decade. Biofuels are an important part of the Biden-Harris Administration’s commitment to lowering gas prices for the American people.

Background

Under HBIIP, USDA provides grants to transportation fueling and distribution facilities. These grants lower the out-of-pocket costs for businesses to install and upgrade infrastructure and related equipment.

The $100 million available now will support a variety of fueling operations, including filling stations, convenience stores and larger retail stores that also sell fuel. The funds will also support fleet facilities including rail and marine, and fuel distribution facilities, such as fuel terminal operations, midstream operations, distribution facilities as well as home heating oil distribution centers.

The grants will cover up to 50% of total eligible project costs – but not more than $5 million – to help owners of transportation fueling and fuel distribution facilities convert to higher blends of ethanol and biodiesel. These higher-blend fuels must be greater than 10% for ethanol and greater than 5% for biodiesel.

sifu said

Commodity bull run is starting again.

This time lead by
1. OPEC disatisfied with US shorting the oil future and decide to defend by planning to cut production.
2. China aggressive cut interest rate to spur economy activity will spur demand in mid to long term.

If add back 1 time impairment profit is still 100 million.
Core operation profit improved. Nothing wrong.

Sifu said .

For the past 100 yrs of cpo history.
When price broke 800, many will say will drop back below 400.
When price broke 1800, many will say will drop back tbelow 800
When price broke 4000 resistance ,many still say will drop back below1800.


Every time it broke the resistance.
Palm oil stock will also break resistance in 1 to 2 yrs time.
Why so long,because big fund will only buy for long term when got consistent profit.
They as well will dump during initial break out.
Look at klk in 2008.
Broke 5 to 12 drop back to 5 go back to 12 and broke the resitance 2 yrs later and never went back down below 12 until now.Those bought klk at 12 before it went back to 5 were profitable 2 yrs later in 2010 when it broke the resistance at 12.

Palm oil company must have patience. Because big fund are all very patient.
Of course if want quick profit then dont  invest palm oil.

Do you know all efb stock in malaysia are all sold out at very good pricing because many company are investing in bio product to move away from fossil fuel.This is the future.
Imagine all fossil product are made from plant based in future. Just like ev investor imagine all old car convert into ev car.They are both future trend.

Sifu said.

Many people thought tsh  land sale is  nothing just a simple business disposal for profit.
But sifu said on superficial level its so.
But he said there are  more to ponder.
So many palm oil company in indonesia .Why tsh.
So many plot of land in tsh.Why pick a non productive land?

Sifu personally felt that everyone knows why tsh is picked.
The non productive piece of land was picked because location is best and non productive so the cost of land  wont be too  high for acquisition. If its a highly productive land probably might fetch a much higher price.

Then there are proximity value advantage to other tsh land nearby.
The Bulungan Regency land sale was obviously picked with strategic advantage to tsh.
The plot of land will be the seeding land for nusantara heart.
It will house nusantara green power generation industrial park in future where international company like tesla will set up their plant here or nearby to tap on green energy in future .

So you can see whoever got to contribute this initial seeding land got huge advantage.
Of course tsh and indonesia bosses will pick a seeding land which is nearby to own land.Do u think they will pick a land near to klk or competitor ? If there is.

And coincidentally. Boss up his daily acquisition to 500k when the nusantara masterplan  and the acquisition of seeding land is confirmed.

Sifu said.

Those anti palm oil are all brainwashed by western media. At least palm tree absorb more co2 then soybean and sunflower. Birds and wild boar can be found. Look at sunflower and soybean crop. Not even insect as too much pesticide .

Sifu said.

Thats why plantation company buy land when qe start with ultra low interest and sell some to cover most of their land purchases profit when land price jacked up due to qe.

Like tsh sell 1 non productive land to cover 10 borrowed productive land is super smart.

Sifu said.
Simple logic.
Cheap land cheap palm oil.
When land become super expensive due to qe,it warrant a high oil price.
At 2k palm oil is making loss if u buy a piece of land to grow now.
So u need 4k and above to expand.
But now problem is even with 4 k cannot expand much.
So the price will bounce around 4 to 5 k to find equilibrium and to firm within new box.
By that time after few yrs.Consumer already used to rm2.00 roti canait.And fed will start qe again. History repeat.

Thats what happen to palm oil over the past 100 yrs.

Price of olive oil to rise 25% as heatwave hits crops

Olive oil prices could rise by up to 25 per cent as heatwaves hamper production in Spain, a leading exporter has warned.

The warning comes as droughts on the continent also threaten to send prices soaring for French and Swiss cheese.

Heatwaves have been sweeping through Europe this summer, with France, Italy and Portugal among those experiencing prolonged bouts of extreme heat.

Spain is also experiencing one of its hottest summers on record, as well as drought affecting crops such as avocados and olives.

A leading Spanish producer told the BBC these difficult weather conditions are likely to have a knock-on effect on supermarket prices.

Heatwaves have had a “drastic” effect on production, according to Miguel Colmenero from Acesur, whose olive oil products are sold in UK supermarkets such as Tesco and Sainsbury’s.

Amid the scorching weather and drought conditions, Spain is forecast to produce around 400,000 fewer tonnes of olive oil this year, he told the BBC.


Mr Colmenero reportedly said customers could expect to see a change in supermarket prices in the next three or four months when contracts are renewed, and estimated an increase of 20 to 25 per cent.

Wildfires have broken out in Spain amid extreme heat and dry conditions
Acesur’s export manager also told the broadcaster dry weather could affect next season’s crop if there is not enough water for olive trees to grow new branches.

Spain experienced its hottest July on record this year, with an average temperature of 25.6C, nearly 3C up from the previous record.

The extreme heat and lack of rain have caused many wildfires and worsened drought in many areas, as well as being responsible for hundreds of deaths.

Sifu said.
Whatever info he shared an arranged are meant for long term investor.
Short will ignore and sell to long term investor.
Thats why he said will take 1 to 2 yrs to manifest.

How bad will the global food crisis get?
Food commodity prices are falling but experts say global production and hunger rates might be even worse in 2023 .

“What sets this global food crisis apart from previous similar situations is that there are multiple major causes behind it,” says Cary Fowler, US special envoy for food security. The true impact of this combination of factors will only become apparent next year, analysts say. “I’m more worried about 2023 than 2022,”

No return to normal

Consumers may need to get used to permanently higher food prices, economists warn. Capital Economics forecasts that market levels will “remain at historically high prices” due to the increased volatility in the weather. “It’s undeniable that we’re seeing lower yields and harvests” over the past few years due to the growing impact of climate change, says Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at the research firm. Some analysts wonder whether the conflict has started a process of dismantling a trade system designed to deliver low-cost goods, including food commodities, to all corners of the globe. Wellesley says that the global food trading system that allowed countries to access all kinds of foods is not set to return to normal any time soon. “That in turn likely means continued high food and fertiliser prices and a reconfiguration of trade dependencies, perhaps with a greater focus on more regional supply chains.” 

https://www.ft.com/content/e44db6b3-7266-4188-8d08-79d678a61146

Sifu said.

This is what local fund wont tell you in tech. Sounds like glove 2.0.

今年以来，芯片行业出现了离奇的降价销售现象。

作为2021年最畅销的芯片产品之一的意法半导体芯片，是电子控制系统的核心部件。它的市场报价一度上涨至3500元左右一个，然而2022年其价格直接从高位下滑至600元左右一个，降价幅度超过80%。另一型号的芯片，在2021年价格维持在200元左右一个，目前售价仅为每个20元左右，只有最高价的十分之一。


曾经掀起全球热潮的芯片，如今降价都难售，这究竟是怎么一回事？

近两年，由于各国企业对芯片产业的投入逐年加大，导致全球芯片出现了一种叫结构性供给过剩的现象。

供给过剩的芯片主要集中在消费电子领域，尤其是在面板用芯片、通信用芯片、模拟芯片等众多大类芯片中，价格降幅都不小。其中，大部分近两月内跌价超过20%，部分芯片降价超80%。

以手机为例，手机相关类芯片曾是过去十年中最火的芯片，随着全球经济不确定性增强，以及受反复横跳的疫情影响，很多消费者从消费转向储蓄，消费欲望被大大遏制，导致全球手机销量不断下滑。数据显示，2022年二季度全球PC出货量同比下降12.6%，创九年来最大降幅。2022年二季度全球智能手机出货量同比减少9%。

手机需求下降，手机用电子芯片供大于求。随之各大手机厂商纷纷调低出货量目标，并向上游芯片厂商砍单。

这降价的背后，是由于过去出现的“芯片荒”，让许多芯片制造商们不断扩产增能。各路资本疯狂涌入芯片行业，带来了库存的同比增长。 以全球近2350家芯片相关的上市制造公司为统计对象，2022年一季度库存金额比2021年年底暴增约970亿美元，库存剩余量和增量皆创10年来新高。

库存的暴增，加剧产能过剩导致的价格下降，也会加剧芯片市场的需求分化

Sifu said.

Things to ponder over boss diligent sbb:

1.He has a plan.
2.He doesnt care much about share or cpo price.
3.He cares about qty of sbb. Raised from 200k to 500k . Sticking to 500k almost religiously.
4. Change of 200k to 500k daily probably due to change of plan timeline and not because of price.Something happened which brought forward the timeline. What happen he said go find out yourself more interesting that way.
5. 500k daily if maintain for 1 year will cross 30% threshold.3 yrs to 40 to 50%.
6. The boss is slowly and diligently executing his plan without much  market agitation.
7. Initial daily sbb will arouse market attention but gradually numb the public as non event.
8. This is not impulsive sbb as compared to glove bosses.This is a precise execution of masterplan.
9. 1st phase of Nusantara schedule to complete in 3 yrs 2025 coincidentally.
10. He got strong financial backing to carry out plan.
11. Total land value is valued at about 8b based on latest land sale. If plan to privatise, prevent forceful buy over, value investing or to become next klk is a good move.
12....to be added by other great sifu

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/08/the-new-normal-how-europe-is-being-hit-by-a-climate-driven-drought-crisis

The new normal’: how Europe is being hit by a climate-driven drought crisis

Europe’s most severe drought in decades is hitting homes, factories, farmers and freight across the continent, as experts warn drier winters and searing summers fuelled by global heating mean water shortages will become “the new normal.”

Sifu said.
Chart dont lie. When it broke above 4k box.
It signify fundamental change.
Gigantic Qe is the financial fundamental shift.
Climate change is one of the many key physical fundamental changes.

http://southasiajournal.net/commodities-do-not-cause-inflation-money-printing-does/

In this world of monetary insanity, defenders of central bank constant easing try every day to convince you that inflation is caused by numerous factors, not by currency printing.

Many blame inflation on cost-push factors or even speculation, but ultimately all those are consequences, not causes.

Rising prices are always caused by more units of currency being directed to scarce or tangible assets.

According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the total value of various commodity index-related instruments purchased by institutional investors has increased from an estimated $15 billion in 2003 to an estimated $200 billion. The global commodity-services market size is estimated at $4 trillion in 2020, according to Market Research.According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the total value of various commodity index-related instruments purchased by institutional investors has increased from an estimated $15 billion in 2003 to an estimated $200 billion. The global commodity-services market size is estimated at $4 trillion in 2020, according to Market Research.

Oil and gas will be used as an excuse for inflation as long as low interest rates and massive currency creation remain. But the reality is that when both deflate somehow, the problem of currency debasement will remain.

Now the increase in broad money has translated to an explosion in all prices, energy-related or not. Some will blame wages, others will blame the Ukraine war, and others will blame the weak recovery. The fact is that currency destruction is at the heart of generalized price rises everywhere. Everything else is anecdotes or consequences, not causes.

More units of currency are going to scarce assets as investors look for protection against inflation. This is not speculation; it is protection from currency debasement.

Sifu said.
If you read deep into this article. You will know what 2008 qe cycle did to palm oil price will happen again this 2021 cycle.
The only difference is this time qe is bigger than the total sum of the past. Thats why it can break the strongest resistance of palm oil hundred years history 4k.

Sifu said. Take note of this event. It will hugely impact crops in europe region.
It is already impacting in food commodity future lately.
CPO out of europe region will be needed to replace all these affected and contaminated harvest.
Europe region crop will be less prefered in future. Just be informed and be prepared.

If the Ukrainian forces continue their attacks on the power plant, a disaster can happen “at any moment,” Nebenzia warned. According to the Russian envoy to the UN, a catastrophe at the Zaporozhye power plant – the biggest one in Europe – could lead to radioactive pollution of vast swathes of territory, affecting at least eight Ukrainian regions, including its capital, Kiev, major cities like Kharkov or Odessa, and some territories of Russia and Belarus bordering Ukraine. The Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, as well as Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria are likely to suffer as well, he warned.

“And these are the most optimistic expert forecasts,” Nebenzia said, adding that the potential scale of a nuclear disaster of such magnitude was “difficult to imagine.”

Sifu said. Free service got no data for 1980s.
His data on 1989 aug showed klk around 60 sen.
He said klk broke rm5.00 resistance in 2008 qe then went up to 12 in 1 yr.
Retrace to rm5 again in 5 mth shake out all weaklings. Retest 12 in 1 yr.
Took 5 mth broke resistance.Since then never come back below 12 until now 22.
Sounds familiar to current 2021 QE?
We are retracing to rm 1 after 1 year rally.

Sifu said.
Back in 80s CPO is below 800. KLK is only at 60 sen.
Now 2022 CPO is trading above 4k. KLK is above rm22.
Very Clear Trend.

Before 4k box break out plantation not worth to invest.
It is because many plantation is working for bank because assets and land are own through borrowing.
Now like TSH no longer work for bank . As they would be able to clear off all their debts. They are debt free.
TSH will have NTA 2.++ by next year.
PB about 0.5.
The only thing bad thing is boss keep buying. And that is also the good thing.

Retired sifu told my friend.

It took more than 40 years for palm oil to break usd3800 box.
It is very very very difficult to acchieve. There are many times in history oil broke usd100 even USD150.
He asked my friend why no one ponder on that.
He said everytime Palm oil broke box of trading.
1st box 800 to 1800 ,
2nd box 1800 to 4000 and now
3rd box 4000 to 8000.
Every time there is a big fundamental shift both in financial and physical demand and supply.

Now the CPO is trading in 3rd box which signify the 3rd fundamental shift in this sector.
But the stock price of plantation had not reflected.
He said old economoy rerating is always slow unlike new economy.

What fundamental shift resulted in CPO broke into 3rd box.
He said its a long story. Next time then say.
He said its very difficult to find a stock to all in. And he already found it.


Posted by OneOracle > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

From 1980 to 2007 (30yrs), Palm oil support is around 850 . Resistance is 1800.
Why suddenly after 2008 it broke the resistance of 1800 and went up to 4000 resistance ?
There after from 2008 to 2020(12 yrs) . 1800 to 4000 is the box for palm oil.
Beginning 2021,it broke 4000 and went u p to 8000.
Is it because of demand and supply of palm oil? May be.
But the primary reason is QE .
2008 QE. Palm oil broke 1800 resistance. Then palm oil start trading between 2k to 4k for 12 yrs.
2021 QE Palm oil broke 4000 resistance. Then palm oil start trading between 4k to 8k for the next 12 yrs ?

There is a price for QE. PAlm oil always double when there is massive QE.

The valuation of Palm oil company will only start reflecting in 1 to 2 yrs.
The valuation of Palm oil company shld double or triple since CPO range is lifted from 2 to 4 to 4 to 8.

Never mind no one will believe what i post. But i believe in the retired sifu.

From 1980 to 2007 (30yrs), Palm oil support is around 850 . Resistance is 1800.
Why suddenly after 2008 it broke the resistance of 1800 and went up to 4000 resistance ?
There after from 2008 to 2020(12 yrs) . 1800 to 4000 is the box for palm oil.
Beginning 2021,it broke 4000 and went u p to 8000.
Is it because of demand and supply of palm oil? May be.
But the primary reason is QE .
2008 QE. Palm oil broke 1800 resistance. Then palm oil start trading between 2k to 4k for 12 yrs.
2021 QE Palm oil broke 4000 resistance. Then palm oil start trading between 4k to 8k for the next 12 yrs ?

There is a price for QE. PAlm oil always double when there is massive QE.

The valuation of Palm oil company will only start reflecting in 1 to 2 yrs.
The valuation of Palm oil company shld double or triple since CPO range is lifted from 2 to 4 to 4 to 8.

My friend told me a retired sifu already all in tsh. He told me whenever that sifu all in a stock, wont go wrong. So i also bought.