2022 FEB

Employees Provident Fund Board 44,671,148 3.24%

2023
Employees Provident Fund 67,280,000 4.87%

Seems EPF is secretly buying back TSH.
1.6 million share more will become substantial shareholder again.

Palm oil may climb into a range of 4,418 ringgit to 4,459 ringgit, as it has broken a resistance at 4,343 ringgit per tonne. The resistance is identified as the 161.8% projection level of a wave 3 from 3,851 ringgit.

This wave now has a better chance to extend into 4,575-4,647 ringgit range.

The drop triggered by the resistance at 4,418 ringgit last week is regarded as a pullback towards the Jan. 3 high of 4,276 ringgit.

The pullback may have completed as palm oil has been recovering steadily from the drop.

A break below 4,271 ringgit could be followed by a fall into 4,155-4,227 ringgit range.

On the daily chart, the contract is riding on a wave C from 3,721 ringgit, which is expected to travel into a range of 4,510-4,998 ringgit range.

Palm oil logs fourth weekly rise on flooding woes

An inverted head-and-shoulders is taking shape, which will be confirmed when the resistance at 4,510 ringgit is broken.

It will suggest an aggressive target of 5,787 ringgit.

The fund want to push plantation.So someone need to keep quiet.

Tesla want to make ev without rare earth with 3x more expensive alternative vs china using super efficient rare earth for ev production at ultra cheap cost.

No wonder tesla dropped so much after investor presentation.

Same like got cheap palm oil dont want to use want to use expensive alternative.

When the western can print free money they can do all sort anti gravity stunt.
When they found out they cannot issue blank cheque anymore in future.
Ironman superpower will be gone and become human being again.

By then everyone will know what is the true price of basic commodity.
Like tony said now the air ticket price is normal.Cheap air ticket in the past is abnormal.

EV sales collapse as subsidies and tax credits come to an abrupt halt, Rystad says

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1119629/ev-sales-collapse-as-subsidies-and-tax-credits-come-to-an-abrupt-halt-rystad-says


Rystad said tax credits and government subsidies have propped up the EV market to date, as countries identify passenger car fleet electrification as a core tactic for meeting net-zero emissions goals, but the reduction or removal of these subsidies this year has dampened consumer sentiment.

It said automakers are now scrambling to reverse the downward spiral and salvage the market in 2023.

Rystad said the automotive market is usually cyclical, with sales taking a hit after new subsidy rules come into effect at the start of each year, followed by a gradual recovery.

However, it said the cuts in January this year hit harder than normal, triggering this dramatic collapse.

“The ramifications of this will be long-lasting and will impact sales through the first quarter of the year and potentially the rest of 2023.

“EV subsidies in many European countries and mainland China were sliced at the start of the year, and a return of any significance is highly unlikely in the immediate future,” it said.


Stock: [TSH]: TSH RESOURCES BHD

 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

When China dominate the ev metals and EV car export market in future.
You will see western power will start bombard EV car is not green.
All subsidies will be removed.
ESG fund will exit.

MUMBAI, March 1 (Reuters) - India has decided to scrap a duty-free imports quota of 2 million tonnes of crude sunflower oil for the next fiscal starting from April 1, the government said on Wednesday, as the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils tries to support local oilseed farmers.

The move could lead to higher imports of palm oil, which was earlier attracting taxes even as imports of sunflower oil and soyoil were allowed without any taxes under the quota.

New Delhi in May 2022 allowed duty free imports of 2 million tonnes of sunflower oil in 2022/23 and had initially planned to repeat that in 2023/24.

India sources sunflower oil from Russia and Ukraine.

In January, India decided to scrap duty free imports of crude soyoil for the new fiscal year.

India imports soyoil mainly from Argentina, Brazil and the United States.

"Crude palm oil imports would become attractive from April onwards," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

India imports palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.

https://palmoilina.asia/berita-sawit/bensin-sawit-solusi-kurangi-impor/

Palm Gasoline Is The Future Of Indonesia's Energy Security

The success of biodiesel in reducing dependence on imported diesel is inseparable from policy support, namely the mandatory biodiesel program . Learning from this experience, Indonesia can put into practice a mandatory palm oil gasoline program . To accelerate the reduction of dependence on imported gasoline, the palm oil mandatory program must be implemented intensively and progressively, for example, from the mixing level of palm oil with fossil fuels from the G-10 to the G-20 and G-50.

With the mandatory implementation of palm oil gasoline, Indonesia can reduce its high dependency on imported gasoline so that it is relatively more resistant to the dynamics of global oil prices and the global energy crisis. The strong commitment of all stakeholders and coupled with public support means that national energy security is not a necessity for Indonesia to achieve.

Still waiting for cpo to fall to 2K?
4k will be the baseline.
At 4k,Tsh easy make 200 to 300 million annually.

Added more at weakness. Fcpo stabilising at 3 to 4k,Tsh is able make minimum 200 mil operation profit annually. Giving higher than fd dividend yield.Good for growing your assets with spare money and no worry about waking up facing limit down ,pn 17 ,china us crisis,stagflation scenario.

If cpo stays above 4k,would be extra bonus .

Basically invest in plantation stock now and get dividend for 7 years.You get your stock foc.

Fed is going to revise inflation target to 2.85 from 2.

The implication is huge and wide.
Current high commodity price will remain sticky and accepted as normal in future.
Meaning enjoy your cpo 4k as baseline in future.
Enjoy your 10% dividend yield from plantation stock for a very long time until market drive it down to 5% when they seek for high return.

Tech stock longterm valuation will further erode.

If you think there is going to be a bonus share in 2024.
Historical Price action recorded a price action 1 year before bonus issue.
So monitor closely 2023 price movement of TSH especially it is moving defiance or divergent to plantation index or the KLCI.

Seems like TSH wkly chart breakout is coming.

All major foundry utilisation rate dropped to 60 to 70% due to over supply capacity.
MPI profit drop to 18m. Wont surprise we start seeing Tech lossess coming in future.
Sounds like Glove 2.0.

When will plantation bull run ends?
When there is another or few plantation stock enter KLCI.
When Supermax enter KLCI. Glove bull run end.
When Inari enter KLCI, Tech bull run end.
So which plantation stock will emerge new entry into KLCI ?

Financial sector is toppish. Fund will exit sooner or later.
To support index from crashing it will flow to other sector.
Fund already went in utitlity to support index while unwinding from banks
The next biggest sector to support the index is plantation.
Plantation sector is still cheap and did not reflect the fact that CPO had doubled.

If fund is smart should sell toppish financial sector and crowded tech and buy in less crowded and oversold plantation.
Warren Buffet sold a lot of banks and TSMC in latest filing.

When China dominate the ev metals and EV car export market in future.
You will see western power will start bombard EV car is not green.
All subsidies will be removed.
ESG fund will exit.

Tsh will eventually follow past Inno price action.
As both follow same boss corporate mission.
Tsh boss experiment on inno is successful and is now transforming Tsh into 2nd inno.
Inno is net cash and now TSH is net cash with no or minimal debt.
The next step to follow will increase yield to attract long term fund.
Replanting had potentially increase future production by 40% which shows growth intact.
Transformation is ongoing and price will reflect.
3 years ago no one can believe inno will fly from 30 sen to 1.50.

Self-driving cars would be a climate disaster

Autonomous vehicles are bad for the planet, no matter how efficient their computers become.
https://www.fastcompany.com/90846919/self-driving-cars-would-be-a-climate-disaster

Warren buffett trim 86% stake in TSMC .(becareful with your tech)
Increase stake in OXY.(energy)

Media is under reporting.
The chemical will seeps into ground in ohia farms making it unsuitable for massive agriculture for next 50 years.
So just in case, do not buy farm product from us east coast anymore.

A Massive chemical accident happened in Ohio, USA. Train carrying hazardous materials blew up off the tracks. Local residents report headaches and nausea. Another Chernobyl?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ThePollLady/status/1624841041349148672

Serious consequences slowly appearing

Tech index is ready for 2nd leg downtrend on monthly chart. 30 to 40 % correction in coming mths.
Becareful with your tech stock.

Have warned before banking is the next to collapse.
Mthly chart macd death cross with a triple top chart spanning over 8 years.
Interest rate at peak but cant break out triple top is very bearish.
What if BN start cut rate?
Be very careful with your banking stock.

First is Dnex , now is Myeg. One by one prophecy is coming true
All these tech company are with old political entrenched legacy.
Plantation is one of the protected ones by the new gomen.

Stock: [TSH]: TSH RESOURCES BHD

1 month ago | Report Abuse



Drama at dnex is a sign of downtrend in malaysia tech industry.
Dnex is going to be a showcase to international investor that malaysia tech is next golden goose that unseen hand is killing.
Be cautious decades of uptrend in tech means alot of selling off on every rebound.Bankers simply got too much chip accumulated over past decade to dispose so they will fake bull trap to dispose.

TSH break out with a reverse Head and Shoulder pattern just as predicted.

Good vibes for palm oil and wind of change.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2023/2/2/23568192/palm-oil-deforestation-sustainable
Palm oil is actually not that bad (anymore)
Palm oil once destroyed orangutan-filled rainforests in Southeast Asia. Now, the industry is cleaning up its act.


HTTPS://WWW.FOODNAVIGATOR.COM/ARTICLE/2023/01/31/WHAT-DOES-EUROPE-S-DEFORESTATION-LAW-MEAN-FOR-PALM-OIL-RSPO-TALKS-CHALLENGES-AND-OPPORTUNITIES
What does Europe’s deforestation law mean for palm oil? RSPO talks challenges and opportunities
31-Jan-2023 By Flora Southey

A political agreement has been reached on the European Union’s due diligence legislation, and sustainable palm oil organisation Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) is supportive. Yet challenges and risks exist, explains Ruben Brunsveld, deputy director of EMEA.

Plantation index rally day.

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2023/02/03/us-finds-no-forced-labour-in-sime-darbys-palm-oil-production/

What happen when WHO 1st call for fight against trans fat in 1990s.

In the 1990s, U.S. and E.U. regulators moved to ban unhealthy trans fat, a type of fat found in partially hydrogenated oils, from foods. Manufacturers turned to palm oil as a cheap and effective substitute. From 2000 through 2020, E.U. palm oil imports more than doubled, while U.S. imports shot up almost tenfold. Many consumers didn’t even notice the switch.

https://www.who.int/news/item/23-01-2023-five-billion-people-unprotected-from-trans-fat-leading-to-heart-disease
Now WHO new call for total ban in less wealthy country.
These countries are populous .Far more consumers than developed world.
Removing trans fat from their product will increase palm oil demand greatly.

Energy index is always a leading indicator to Plantation index in Bursa.
Energy index is bullish and breaks out.
Fund will rotate and flow into plantation index.
Plantation is still lagged and will follow suit.
Look at their comparison chart historically and you will know what will plantation index paints in 2023.
Yes, bullish and breaks out.

Dun get so excited.
Dun worry no one will believe my joke.

Closed above daily ma200 on Tuesday.
Will 90% break out on thursday.
Close above ma200 wkly end of the wk .
90% break out on wkly chart next wk.
Will rally for few wks.
By 2023 or 2024 will revisit rm 2 riding the upward mthly bullish channel

If you can find any stock in bursa that is
net cash
zero debt
Positive cash generating
High dividend yield
Undervauled assets at 10 times below market value

and still trading below MA200. Please high light.

To long term investor TSH got the certainty(net cash and cash generating machine) amid uncertainties.
Best of all it is still trading below ma200 and is cheap.
Best of all it is full corrected and just above macd 0 axis on mthly chart while Ta ann is still far from fully corrected in mthly chart.
Thats why TSH is divergent from Ta ann.

Support is strong.
Will today close above daily, weekly and monthly ma200 ?
With clear earning visibility for the next decades based on biofuel trend.
TSH is cash generating machine now.
FA wise it should trade above MA 200.
Let see will TA reflect that.

We will start to see many biofuel refinery plant coming onlinestarting in 2023 to 2030.

Europe’s oil majors investing eight times more in biofuels than hydrogen

Around 75% of the refining sector’s €39bn of planned investments in alternative fuels up to 2030 will go towards increasing biofuels production, according to new research from NGO Transport & Environment.


Europe’s oil majors are investing eight times more in biofuels than in hydrogen, according to a new study on behalf of the Brussels-based NGO Transport & Environment (T&E).

Around 75% of the European refining sector’s €39bn ($42.23bn) of planned investments in alternative fuels up to 2030 will go towards increasing biofuels production, states the report. Between €2bn and €3bn will be invested in new hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) plants, doubling production capacity of this advanced biofuel to ten megatonnes by 2030. This is four times higher than what can be sustainably sourced in the EU, according to T&E’s analysis. It warns of mass imports of “dubious” used cooking oil as feedstock from abroad.


Verdict: To the oil giants, biofuel is their greatest immediate threat and also greatest business opportunity as the ready market is so huge.

Ambank u turn so fast . No more 89 sen tp already?
Obviously already cleared all their position in call warrant.
Slowly all other issuer will give higher tp as they cleared their call warrant position.

Tin model

The main global pricing mechanism for palm oil now is the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, an exchange located in Malaysia, the second-largest supplier of the tropical oil. Palm oil products are listed on two exchanges in Indonesia, the Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange and Jakarta Futures Exchange.

Indonesia’s plan for palm oil pricing echoes an earlier one for tin, of which the country is also a leading global supplier. The government requires all tin exports to be traded first on the ICDX, a rule imposed to create a “reasonable” price and support a push for shipments of more processed products.

The regulatory agency is planning to use tin as a model for palm, with modifications, and will seek the opinions of stakeholders including the agriculture ministry, the industry ministry and industry associations.

Tin price went from 17k to 31k since Indonesia new Tin policy.

TSH is now net cash.
With sustaining high vege oil price in future, TSH is now generating 100 mil positive cash flow per qtr.
able to set aside 2 to 3 sen dividend(30 to 40 mil cash) per qtr.
1 yr is 8 to 12 sen dividend translating to 7.5 to 11 % dividend yield at current price.
Not much down side.
Even at rm2 still got 3.7 to 5.5% yield.

https://www.iea.org/reports/is-the-biofuel-industry-approaching-a-feedstock-crunch

Biodiesel, renewable diesel and biojet fuel producers are headed for a feedstock supply crunch during 2022-2027 if current trends do not change. In our main case, demand for vegetable oil, waste and residue oils and fats increases 56% to 79 million tonnes over the forecast period.

Fuels made from wastes and residues are in particularly high demand because they satisfy GHG and feedstock policy objectives in the United States and Europe. In fact, wastes and residues are expected to be used for 13% of biofuel production in 2027, up from 9% in 2021.

However, demand is approaching the supply limits of the most-used wastes and residues. Nevertheless, markets are dynamic.

"High prices " are a signal to seek out new supplies,

which is prompting the development of government programmes and industry innovation to help avoid the crunch.

VERDICT:
High prices of feedstock like palmoil is needed.

Usd will break new low in the next decades after breaking 20 yrs high.
As usd ponzi scheme is cracking.Fed cant print unlimited money to fund their expenses.
Meaning a super bullish decade for commodity.
Bank negara already stop rate hike due to strong ringgit.
Eventually they will start cut rate to avoid ringgit become too strong .
This will boost cpo price and stock market.
Meaning all stock price  will go higher.
Meaning Tsh price will rise together in that environment.

https://en.antaranews.com/news/269898/indonesia-to-stop-fossil-fuel-imports-by-2045-pandjaitan

Jakarta (ANTARA) - Indonesia will not import fossil fuels from 2045 as it will have developed the potential of palm oil as an alternative fuel by then, Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, has informed.

"We are currently researching (the potential of) palm oil because we believe that we will be able to produce around 100 million tons of palm oil by 2045,” he said in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday local time.

He made the statement during a presentation entitled “Indonesia Zero Pathway: Opportunity & Challenges” at the Indonesian Pavilion at the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting 2023.

At least 30 percent of palm oil production will be used for the food industry, while the remaining 70 percent will be used to manufacture ethanol, the coordinating minister said.

"Thus, we will not need to import fossil fuel at that time (by 2045)," he added.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/indonesia-aims-launch-palm-oil-benchmark-price-june-trade-minister-3217026

This mean that indonesia will call the shot in pricing cpo.
With indonesia resource downstreaming policy and strong demand in palm oil based biofuel.
Hence exporting will turn lesser over time.
Cpo price will be stronger over time.
Malaysia is too weak to dictate cpo price.

Do not forget indonesia will commercial launch palm oil based gasoline in 2024.
Not bio diesel but bio gasoline.
Bio gasoline to be used in Cars and motorbike .

When a healthy money making company trading at under valued price also can be bombarded like its a loss making con job company like SD.
You know they bomb because they need to bomb.
And there sure be golden mine underneath.

TSH is reaping positive 100 mil cash inflow every qtr from normal operation.
1 year 400 mill cash inflow. Even without land disposal. TSH can pay off 1 billion debt in 2 to 3 years time.
Profit or loss can be non cash item affecting.
Making loss still got a lot of cash can give dividend.
Making profit can be out of cash and never give dividend.
If a company got very strong positive cash flow but profit is lacklustre then is golden time to buy when ignorant are throwing.

JPMorgan Chase: It is recommended to sell US stocks and increase its holdings of commodities, the analyst team led by Marko Kolanovic, chief global market strategist at JPMorgan Chase, released a report saying that the latest US stock market The round of rebound is coming to an end, now it is recommended to sell US stocks and take profits. The team said that all the positive catalysts for the rise of U.S. stocks have been released, but the Federal Reserve and U.S. companies may still throw several "potential bombs" in the future. The team still recommends overweighting commodities, especially energy commodities

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Goldman Sachs is bullish on the outlook for global commodities.CREDIT:AP

Currie sees parallels with the record run-up in commodities prices from 2007 to 2008. The only exception, he said, is European natural gas, where inventories look sufficient to get through this year.

Goldman raised its price forecasts for aluminium on Sunday, saying higher demand in Europe and China could lead to supply shortages. The bank predicted a multiyear commodities supercycle in late 2020 as years of under-investment prevent supply from keeping pace with demand.

Yet oil has had a rocky start to 2023, capped by fears over a potential recession in the US and China’s shaky progress in reopening its economy from COVID-related lockdowns. Traders are also tracking the impact of sanctions on Russian oil and product flows. Brent crude futures traded near $US84 a barrel in London.

‘You cannot come up with a more bullish concoction for commodities.’

TSH NTA increased to 1.70
Pb ratio drop to 0.63.
Will be reflected in nex qtr result.
Based on 0.7 pb ratio as of today price should adjust to 1.20 to reflect by then.

2023 will be a ‘Goldilocks’ year for commodities, says Goldman Sachs

Commodities have the strongest outlook of any asset class in 2023, with a perfect macroeconomic environment and critically low inventories for almost every key raw material, according to the head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs.

This year has started with a pullback in prices driven by warm weather shock and rising interest rates, Jeff Currie said at a presentation in London on Monday. But demand in China starting to rebound and there’s insufficient investment in supply, meaning the year as a whole will be a “Goldilocks” moment for rising prices, he said.

“You cannot come up with a more bullish concoction for commodities,” Currie said. “Lack of supply is apparent in every single market you look at, whether it is inventories at critical operating levels or production capacity exhausted.”








Goldman Sachs is bullish on the outlook for global commodities.

Currie sees parallels with the record run-up in commodities prices from 2007 to 2008. The only exception, he said, is European natural gas, where inventories look sufficient to get through this year.

Goldman raised its price forecasts for aluminium on Sunday, saying higher demand in Europe and China could lead to supply shortages. The bank predicted a multiyear commodities supercycle in late 2020 as years of under-investment prevent supply from keeping pace with demand.

Yet oil has had a rocky start to 2023, capped by fears over a potential recession in the US and China’s shaky progress in reopening its economy from COVID-related lockdowns. Traders are also tracking the impact of sanctions on Russian oil and product flows. Brent crude futures traded near $US84 a barrel in London.

‘You cannot come up with a more bullish concoction for commodities.’

Goldman Sachs head of commodities research Jeff Currie

Natural gas prices in Europe dropped to the lowest since September 2021 on Monday, despite the arrival of a cold snap, as liquefied natural gas continued to flood into the continent due to lack of competition from China, where stockpiles of the fuel are full.

This could all change later in the year if a robust recovery in Chinese demand combines with the end interest-rate hikes in major Western economies, Currie said.
“Does anyone remember what happened to oil prices from January of ’07 to July of ’08?” Currie said. “The Fed takes their foot off the brake, China puts the pedal to the metal, Europe starts to grow quickly” and oil prices rose by $US100 a barrel, he said

As said before,Nusantara theme may be late but it will come.
Indonesia is going to be top 5 economy in 20 years time.
The land value in Nusantara will grow by leaps and bound and no turning back.
The diverging movement of TSH to other plantation counter shows that investors are buying into its future exposure of booming Nusantara and Indonesia .
Company with exposure to indonesia will do very well in future.
Even Malaysia is smart enough to be the 1st mover this time.
Nearly 200 malaysia investors shown interest investing in Nusantara.

https://en.tempo.co/read/1663223/nearly-200-malaysian-investors-interested-in-indonesias-new-capital-project-minister-basuki

Malaysia is learning from Indonesia to transform from resource exporting  to resource 'downstreaming'.
Attracting more company to invest in malaysia to encourage investment in local downstream industries for natural resources like palm oil.

To kickstart,raise your biofuel mandate to 10,15 20 and eventually match indonesia b35 asap.This will also soak up demand if ban export to eu .


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/indonesia-exports-could-hit-us300b-2024-spurred-resource-downstreaming

Luhut said the government was working on a downstreaming plan to develop an industry that would process bauxite, copper, tin and, later on, palm oil, into higher value products, replicating the success of the nickel export ban.

"Our exports last year was US$232 billion. This year maybe US$280 billion. Maybe by 2024, I think we can reach US$300 billion or more," Luhut told Reuters.

"If this (downstreaming) works, by 2024, our economic growth will be exponential," he said, adding that Indonesia's gross domestic product could reach US$3.5 trillion by 2030, almost tripling from the current US$1.19 trillion in 2021.