probability

Probability | Joined since 2014-03-18

Investing Experience Not Disclosed
Risk Profile Moderate

Probability is a measure of 'likeliness' that an event will occur - there are no 100% certainty.

Followers

22

Following

2

Blog Posts

14

Threads

14,445

Blogs

Threads

Portfolio

Follower

Following

Summary
Total comments
14,445
Past 30 days
26
Past 7 days
23
Today
0

User Comments
Stock

2024-03-02 20:34 | Report Abuse

Thats like 30 Billion MYR...as good as HSR award! Just that the profitability would be even more guaranteed in UK...unlike malaysian HSR where the project cost is squeezed irrationally

Stock

2024-03-02 20:12 | Report Abuse

Brabazon: Revised plans for 6,500 Filton homes approved

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-68434412

A spokesperson from YTL Developments said the regeneration is "a once-in-a-generation opportunity".

Originally the application included 2,500 homes, but that has now increased.

The developers said the development is forecast to create more than £5 billion of added economic value as well as more than 30,000 jobs.

https://www.ytlpowerinternational.com/our-businesses/property-development/

Interesting..it really appears to be under YTL Power!

Stock

2024-03-02 09:22 | Report Abuse

to me the biggest potential i see is based on these info.....with the trust NVIDIA has with YTL, and YTLP's capability...this is an area of super-growth with NVIDIA (to fill the gap in meeting singapore's NVIDIA revenue growth)

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/nvidia-ytl-power-partner-for-43bn-ai-data-centers-in-malaysia/

Earlier this month, DCD reported that 15 percent of Nvidia's Q3 revenue came from Singapore, notably making the city-state on Malaysia's border the company's fourth biggest customer globally. Per capita, Singapore spent $600 on Nvidia chips, compared to $60 in the US and $3 in China.

It is unclear what has led to this huge demand, be it shell companies using the location, or that Singapore is developing products that will be sent elsewhere.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Singapore-data-centers-look-to-Malaysia-Indonesia-to-satisfy-demand

SINGAPORE -- Data center operators in Singapore are increasingly exploring alternative locations like Malaysia and Indonesia, as the city-state limits construction of new facilities due to space constraints and environmental concerns.

Stock

2024-03-02 08:58 | Report Abuse

MSCI investors would surely need to have an AI stock in their portfolio....else FOMO will creep in to fund managers

Stock

2024-03-01 22:07 | Report Abuse

https://twitter.com/tzafrul_aziz/status/1763127431706345624/photo/2

Sitting beside Tengku Zafrul is Yeoh Keong Hann, Executive Director, YTL Power

Oxford University Grad

Stock

2024-02-29 19:03 | Report Abuse

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/nvidia-ytl-power-partner-for-43bn-ai-data-centers-in-malaysia/

It is unclear what has led to this huge demand, be it shell companies using the location, or that Singapore is developing products that will be sent elsewhere.

.....

The above statement makes me think YTLP AI DC will be likely to support SG's limitation on AI DC expansion due to RE power constraints

and the first phase will be in operation by mid 2024

Stock

2024-02-29 18:55 | Report Abuse

The world is heating up, but data centres should keep their cool

https://datacenternews.asia/story/the-world-is-heating-up-but-data-centres-should-keep-their-cool

It should go without saying, but good air conditioning should be a mainstay of all data centres. This is particularly important for data centres operating in tropical climates like Southeast Asia where the urban heat island effect is driving temperatures to new highs. In fact, cooling of data centres make up 35 to 40% of total energy consumption for data centres in Southeast Asia.

.............

Seeing the above old article in 2022, i realized DC requires so much of AC and these AC requires so much of electricity in Singapore (Note: we are not talking about the direct electricity needs of DC with higher computing load)...

The power demand will certainly go up more than estimated by the SG govn soon

Stock

2024-02-29 10:49 | Report Abuse

another interesting effect is that all these cooling of DC with water only transfers back the energy into heat form to the environment...it will only raise the ambient temperature and the world (especially singaporeans) will have to keep running AC all day...

i.e, a further rise in electricity demand. Its a two fold effect.

AI growth seems exponential and similarly the electricity demand..we humans are designed to process linear growth factors only and will usually fail to realize exponential effects

Stock

2024-02-29 10:24 | Report Abuse

Apple to disclose AI plans later this year, CEO Tim Cook says

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/702817

Cook said that the iPhone maker sees "incredible breakthrough potential for generative AI, which is why we're currently investing significantly in this area. We believe that will unlock transformative opportunities for users when it comes to productivity, problem solving and more."

...


I wonder how the data center going to cope with such computing demands...and later the RE power supply itself (i still miss BPlant)

YTLP has proven to Singapore its reliability, when you have demanding deadlines..i think Singapore govn will keep coming for YTLP

Its such a blessing for YTLP to get the 600MW CCGT plant award...

odds are very high that the margins will be fantastic with such significant power demand from AI DC

Stock

2024-02-28 20:12 | Report Abuse

Just an update on my previous comments, to give an idea how fast things are developing...the below video just came:

https://supercarblondie.com/elon-musk-shares-new-video-of-tesla-optimus-robot-strolling-around-lab/

with this 'thing' having access to all the information and processing power from AI data center...i really feel there is nothing so special about interacting with real humans than these ones which will be way more fascinating (intelligent & knowledgeable)...sad, but this appears the reality forward.

They can easily make genuine human facial expression with emotions with sora (with an LCD on its face or physical face like Sophia-robot)

all these robots, EV cars like tesla, cryptocurrencies will only be guzzling more & more power.....the whole world is going to function purely on ELECTRICITY

Just valuing YTLP power generation segment would need PE of 15 at least (not considering NVIDIA collaboration AI data center)



Posted by probability > Feb 26, 2024 12:24 PM | Report Abuse

guys, think of NVIDIA and YTLP as industry in the making of 'humans'....the software is what forming now with SORA and ChatGPT likes (and later hardware will be designed by this AI itself...much better than boston dynamics Atlas)

when you are able to make humans (infact superhumans), you have basically conquered the supply side of the economy ...you can make & produce anything..any services and goods..whatever industry you want...name it..

all investments will be pouring on this industry


on the demand side (the ordinary human consumer) that will be normal initially...my prediction is that it will also change as it will lose its relevance in the far future (having less or no children) as the whole purpose of human creation will be missing...but this is not important for our discussion here

the above is life shattering..existential crisis development thats taking place now and its taking place very very fast...and many dont even realize it...just like animals in the farm which has no clue they are all bred for slaughtering...

suggest stop entertaining those with half brains (or half balls missing) and learn about the this AI developments...

this has staggering implications to our immediate future & requires our serious thoughts and focus..keep searching and you will finally understand this is no joking matter

I myself still havent got a grasp on what is to come...

even i am thinking of buying NVIDIA including its potential competitors at current PE....

Stock

2024-02-28 19:02 | Report Abuse

already cut loss..not worth the long wait....all these net cash, below EV valuation is no certainty to push the share price up...

its best to never touch Insas...unless you can wait another 10 years

Stock

2024-02-28 18:59 | Report Abuse

@TheContrarian, agree with most of your points ther3...you are really in tune with Insas

Posted by TheContrarian > Feb 28, 2024 6:18 PM | Report Abuse

Most people didn't sell Insas before CNY because they expected a post-CNY rally, and when this didn't happen they still didn't want to sell because they expected a rally after release of its quarterly results. But why was there no rally but instead an immediate free fall?


Posted by TheContrarian > Feb 28, 2024 6:35 PM | Report Abuse

Insas share price never follows Inari.


Posted by TheContrarian > Feb 28, 2024 6:36 PM | Report Abuse

Tomorrow there will probably dead cat bounce of Insas share price.

Stock

2024-02-27 17:52 | Report Abuse

what happen here? I bought a little earlier now in paper loss

Stock

2024-02-27 10:38 | Report Abuse

interesting..looks like singapore has the strategic location advantage

Posted by sultan > Feb 27, 2024 10:30 AM | Report Abuse

Data center requires fiber optic cable. Refer to https://www.submarinecablemap.com/ for submarine cable map.

Stock

2024-02-27 10:08 | Report Abuse

DC providers need to use RE in order to comply...and its crucial that RE is obtained from the most competitive environment...cheapest land with ample reliable sunlight (near equator), and cheap abundant water

Sad that YTL could not buy out BPlant earlier

Stock

2024-02-26 18:22 | Report Abuse

AI is exploding data centre energy use

https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2024/02/26/ai-is-exploding-data-centre-energy-use-a-google-created-technique-may-help#openShareModal

The climate risks sparked by AI-driven computing are far-reaching – and will worsen without a big shift from fossil fuel-based electricity to clean power. Nvidia Corp chief executive officer Jensen Huang has said AI has hit a ‘tipping point”. He has also said that the cost of data centres will double within five years to power the rise of new software.

Already, data centres and transmission networks each account for up to 1.5% of global consumption, according to the International Energy Agency. Together, they’re responsible for emitting about as much carbon dioxide as Brazil annually.

Hyperscalers – as the biggest data center owners like Google, Microsoft and Amazon are known – have all set climate goals and are facing internal and external pressure to deliver on them. Those lofty targets include decarbonising their operations.

But the rise of AI is already wreaking havoc on those goals. Graphics processing units have been key to the rise of large language models and use more electricity than central processing units used in other forms of computing. Training an AI model uses the more power than 100 households in a year, according to IEA estimates.

“The growth in AI is far outstripping the ability to produce clean power for it,” he said.

..........................

I feel Singapore would attempt again in sourcing additional RE from peninsular malaysia.....perhaps YTLP will gain from this

Stock

2024-02-26 15:50 | Report Abuse

@wkc5657

thanks for these info, interesting...yup we have to keep vigilant on any emerging technology thats competitive

Stock

2024-02-26 12:30 | Report Abuse

YTLP is a genius to be in the industry of power supply as that is a major constraint for these developments...as such power producers truly deserve high PE...

Stock

2024-02-26 12:24 | Report Abuse

guys, think of NVIDIA and YTLP as industry in the making of 'humans'....the software is what forming now with SORA and ChatGPT likes (and later hardware will be designed by this AI itself...much better than boston dynamics Atlas)

when you are able to make humans (infact superhumans), you have basically conquered the supply side of the economy ...you can make & produce anything..any services and goods..whatever industry you want...name it..

all investments will be pouring on this industry


on the demand side (the ordinary human consumer) that will be normal initially...my prediction is that it will also change as it will lose its relevance in the far future (having less or no children) as the whole purpose of human creation will be missing...but this is not important for our discussion here

the above is life shattering..existential crisis development thats taking place now and its taking place very very fast...and many dont even realize it...just like animals in the farm which has no clue they are all bred for slaughtering...

suggest stop entertaining those with half brains (or half balls missing) and learn about the this AI developments...

this has staggering implications to our immediate future & requires our serious thoughts and focus..keep searching and you will finally understand this is no joking matter

I myself still havent got a grasp on what is to come...

even i am thinking of buying NVIDIA including its potential competitors at current PE....

Stock

2024-02-25 18:34 | Report Abuse

I think we shall value YTLP like this...

1) We shall use a high PE for the AI Data Center / NVIDIA collaboration related potential earnings...and looking at the exponential growth rate expected, we shall easily use PE like Vitrox....infact this is the kind of business where such high PE is applicable

Search in the net how exponentially this industry will be growing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q05kiN7P-eY

For a 1 billion net profit, mcap for YTLP shall be 40 billion or higher provided it has the competitive advantage (the strategic Johor location and large funding capability) and grows its good relationship with NVIDIA currently

2) secondly YTLP power business is the cash generator that would enable significant capital outlay to support such exponential growth in the initial stage....

For that & considering you have 600 MW new CCGT plant coming...we can give a PE of 15 on its power related earnings

this alone will give a mcap of about 60 billion with current proven earnings


combining both, and considering other business it has, we need to give a mcap of 100 billion

Stock

2024-02-24 09:24 | Report Abuse

is that written by you or an extract from an article? Kindly share the article

Stock

2024-02-24 09:22 | Report Abuse

well said xiaochen..this is exactly what i predict

Stock

2024-02-23 16:55 | Report Abuse

this coincides well with MSCI inclusion

Posted by cgtan2020 > Feb 23, 2024 4:52 PM | Report Abuse

after 29Feb2024, Call warrant expired date end Feb.

Stock

2024-02-23 16:54 | Report Abuse

next week to challenge new high.....lets not forget MSCI inclusion (they often suppress the price before inclusion)

i must thank dragon328 for his assurance on its earnings that made me hold on to till the results came

happy weekend guys

Stock

2024-02-23 16:27 | Report Abuse

just cannot ignore the cash generator

Posted by probability > Feb 23, 2024 9:33 AM | Report Abuse X

as usual fund buy YTL first before YTLP so that can obtain more shares of both at lower price

YTLP would never lag behind YTL's rise eventually

just another 4 months away for the AI date centre to start contributing.

Stock

2024-02-23 16:26 | Report Abuse

yup, next week shall test new high....

Stock

2024-02-23 16:09 | Report Abuse

i hope some u guys had collected good CW during the weakness on first half...

Posted by probability > Feb 22, 2024 7:50 PM | Report Abuse

I hope thats the morning TOP price...
Else, it would be a good idea to sapu some good call warrants

Posted by Invest_888 > Feb 22, 2024 7:48 PM | Report Abuse

YTLP touches RM4.00 tomorrow.

Stock

2024-02-23 15:31 | Report Abuse

I cannot see any reason why YTLP cannot perform like YTL soon...

It is the cash cow for YTL....with the greatest foreign currency exposure and collaboration with NVIDIA....power is going to be the major constraint in every country with AI Data Center, especially singapore

it will come...

Stock

2024-02-23 15:26 | Report Abuse

YTL is performing like NVIDIA yesterday...

Stock

2024-02-23 14:58 | Report Abuse

ladyboy engprofit, ks55 and i3lurker available for those with exotic taste...

Posted by MrFox > Feb 23, 2024 2:56 PM | Report Abuse

unlimied supply of free ahmoing!!!!!
haha

Stock

2024-02-23 12:16 | Report Abuse

where is your fact ks55? none of the writers here including dragon328 incorporated AI Data Center earnings on YTL's valuation...

how you got cheated?

you seem to be in your own imaginary world

Stock

2024-02-23 12:11 | Report Abuse

ks55 says Jensen Huang came to Malaysia with a cheating ingredient...while nicely put his own word 'YTLP has to come out with all the capital'...

Stock

2024-02-23 09:33 | Report Abuse

as usual fund buy YTL first before YTLP so that can obtain more shares of both at lower price

YTLP would never lag behind YTL's rise eventually

just another 4 months away for the AI date centre to start contributing...

Stock

2024-02-22 23:18 | Report Abuse

malaysia has the cheapest water & electricity in the region with abundant sunlight....

these resource is the BIGGEST constraint for NVIDIA AI data centre growth

as such Johor will keep popping on Jensen Huang's dreams....

News & Blogs

2024-02-22 20:49 | Report Abuse

looking at the rate MYR is weakening its truly worrying for me,

it would be prudent to invest in YTLP having almost all income in foreign currency

Stock

2024-02-22 19:50 | Report Abuse

I hope thats the morning TOP price...
Else, it would be a good idea to sapu some good call warrants

Posted by Invest_888 > Feb 22, 2024 7:48 PM | Report Abuse

YTLP touches RM4.00 tomorrow.

Stock

2024-02-22 18:12 | Report Abuse

Nvidia’s Data Center business is booming, up more than 400% since last year to $18.4 billion in fourth-quarter sales

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/21/nvidias-data-center-business-is-booming-up-over-400percent-since-last-year-to-18point4-billion-in-fourth-quarter-sales.html

Nvidia’s Data Center business just logged $18.4 billion in fourth-quarter sales, underscoring how the computer chip giant continues to benefit from the current boom in artificial intelligence.

As part of Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings that were released Wednesday, the company said its data center unit grew 409% from the $3.62 billion it reported during the same period in the previous year. Analysts were expecting Nvidia’s data center unit to record $17.06 billion in sales for its fiscal fourth quarter.

Here’s a look at Nvidia’s data center unit sales since the company’s fiscal third quarter 2023, which ended about a month before OpenAI released ChatGPT:

Fiscal Q3 2024 – data center revenue of $14.51 billion, up 279% from the year prior.
Fiscal Q2 2024 – data center revenue of $10.32 billion, up 171% from the year prior.
Fiscal Q1 2024 – data center revenue of $4.28 billion, up 14% from the year prior.
Fiscal Q4 2023 – data center revenue was $3.62 billion, up 11% from the year prior.
Fiscal Q3 2023 – data center revenue was $3.83 billion, up 31% from the year prior.

Stock

2024-02-22 17:28 | Report Abuse

with such weak MYR, Johor's water and power will be the most competitive resource to support NVIDIA AI data centre...

investment should be pouring with YTLP (at Johor) to support Singapore demand which is constrained by electricity & water supply

Stock

2024-02-22 17:24 | Report Abuse

the cheapest KLSE component stock with MSCI inclusion soon on 29th Feb..

Stock

2024-02-22 17:18 | Report Abuse

foreign fund should sapu again.....with current NVIDIA performance, YTLP shall break RM 4 easily...lets see

Stock

2024-02-22 17:16 | Report Abuse

thats excellent results, it really proves the earnings is sustainable..

next qtr will be even better with the current SGD to MYR

Stock

2024-02-08 10:45 | Report Abuse

if the foreign fund who had bought YTLP till almost RM 4 before the announcement of the 600 MW CCGT plant award, had no insider information...

the near term upside potential from current price level should be significant (not considering other valuation factors as dragon328 informed)

Stock

2024-01-30 16:17 | Report Abuse

tomorrow onwards real show will begin with the CW expired....

Stock

2024-01-30 16:07 | Report Abuse

by 2027, SGD to MYR will be more than 4.0...

Malaysian currency has no hope (there is rumour Najib may have pengampunan)

investing in YTLP (with the bulk of revenue from powerseraya) is like investing in SG

https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=SGD&To=MYR

Stock

2024-01-30 11:05 | Report Abuse

considering the power demand for DC in singapore, they will go all out to commissioned it as early as possible

Posted by dragon328 > Jan 29, 2024 8:32 PM | Report Abuse

The current effective capacity (i.e. the efficient gas-fired power plants) of PowerSeraya is about 2,000MW. Hence this new 600MW hydrogen-ready CCGT unit will increase effective capacity of PowerSeraya by 30%.

Rough calculations show that this new 600MW unit alone may add gross profit of at least SGD200 million a year to PowerSeraya once operational from end 2027. It is initially ready for 30% mix with hydrogen, and may be expanded to 100% hydrogen in the future when green hydrogen cost becomes cheaper than natural gas cost. Then gross profit might double or triple up when crude oil and LNG prices are high.

Stock

2024-01-29 11:35 | Report Abuse

thanks guys..@wendy76, cgtan2020, dragon328

Stock

2024-01-28 09:58 | Report Abuse

nice to see sslee determination despite many mistakes along the way, has finally given solid return

really a good example of investor who is flexible and learn the market very fast..on top of that he is super hardworking

proud a person with same profession as i am can make it..Congrats sslee! Welldone!

didnt know chow yun fat has same determination level too! ;)

https://www.thestar.com.my/lifestyle/entertainment/2024/01/22/chow-yun-fat-68-not-satisfied-with-completing-half-marathon-in-2hr-26min


Posted by Sslee > Jan 28, 2024 7:56 AM | Report Abuse

I already sold about 60%. Will keep the cash in trading account. Come Feb I will study the latest companies financial result and see any other stocks worth buying.

Nowadays for investment I only buy stocks that give dividend. By the way my trading stock Armada is doing well.

I start holding Insas since 2018 and make it to top 30 shareholders list in 2021 and 2022 but drop out of the list in 2023. I sold some as I found some other more attractive stocks.

Safety and strength in diversification.

Stock

2024-01-27 14:59 | Report Abuse

To all the young investors,

Insas one thing for sure, its value is way way higher than what market is pricing now....

But, all the available mechanism which can force the price to move to approach fair valuation as hinted by all sifus like KC Chong, OTB, TheEdge TKO, Sslee, Stockraider, Leno all....i guess will never come to fruition unless some human has the will to do so...

But, there is another natural mechanism...that is time

As Dato Thong Kok Khee ages..there is a high chance he has to take Insas private eventually before his passing

so the young investors has a very strong chance to gain from investment in Insas

If at all Thong handover the shares to his children before privatisation, these young investors can also do the same to their kids before their passing