probability

Probability | Joined since 2014-03-18

Investing Experience Not Disclosed
Risk Profile Moderate

Probability is a measure of 'likeliness' that an event will occur - there are no 100% certainty.

Followers

22

Following

2

Blog Posts

14

Threads

14,496

Blogs

Threads

Portfolio

Follower

Following

Summary
Total comments
14,496
Past 30 days
6
Past 7 days
6
Today
0

User Comments
Stock

2019-07-09 17:32 | Report Abuse

sifu sifus....what happens to the minority shareholders when its delisted?

do they get anything at the end?

News & Blogs

2019-07-09 17:29 | Report Abuse

what happens to the shareholder when it is delisted? Do they get anything at the end?

someone please enlighten

News & Blogs

2019-07-08 20:29 | Report Abuse

aiyo raider...though i dont have the numbers with me...i can tell that the country's gdp per capita ratio to the average (majority population) wage earners's wage...would be having a steep difference...

the argument is more on what can be done to distribute the wealth..

all the natural resources money is going into a few crony pockets

this is not good for malaysia

News & Blogs

2019-07-08 19:45 | Report Abuse

i think malaysians (majority) will not be able to compete with even bangla..if given fair chance to compete...

dont let the malaysian become slave in their own country in the name of competitive business.. no harm raising wage at the expense on ROE...it does not reduce your competitiveness...as the majority business compete internally within Malaysia

malaysia have all the resources to ensure a wealthy nation...provided managed well and wealth is evenly distributed..

education, skills and competency is something the citizens definitely need to improve...but not at the expense of foreigners getting all the benefit they can get as a citizen

News & Blogs

2019-07-08 19:37 | Report Abuse

aiyo raider..singapore citizens are like shareholder of the businesses set up there...they dont compete for wages with the foreigners..

they milk them!

olders citizens already have established assets...and their younger generation net worth is being enriched by reducing/maintained population..

News & Blogs

2019-07-08 19:13 | Report Abuse

may be got friend in the bank...like ahjib 1MDB style

News & Blogs

2019-07-08 17:30 | Report Abuse

Bring indians from India...they dont mind getting half the salary of malaysian and work double the hours...they are more knowledgeable and competent too..

Surely malaysian businesses will become more profitable

News & Blogs

2019-07-08 17:26 | Report Abuse

Business will become competitive also right? Lol!

News & Blogs

2019-07-07 22:48 | Report Abuse

In general today we have higher standard of living...just look at the luxury cars around and alot of families can afford to go oversea holiday 2 times a year ( Raider time once in 6 yrs usually singapore & thailand use bus loh..! }

...........

i am not too sure about the above applies to majority & if the measurement of quality of life is purely measured on travel options and car your won....

as i dont really see that current generation can afford to own home and raise 4 childrens...

News & Blogs

2019-07-07 22:40 | Report Abuse

both drivers (1) & (2) above cannot be enforced....its difficult to come with an enforcement strategy...

but through education and encouragement on appreciation of quality life....this driver (1) can be cultivated naturally

.....................

Once you have the general population having Quality life mindset...the (2) second part from the capitalist will naturally start to form.....

Capitalist will realize they have to share more of their wealth to the wage earners...

distribution of wealth from capitalist to the wage earners does not affect its competitiveness when its done at global level (when all wage earners have the same expectation globally)...its merely a transfer of wealth...i.e sharing...

just for the sake of competitiveness we cannot encourage bangla lifestyle for the malaysians (be staisfied with 2K per month and live in a rented room with a bicycle as transport)...

instead the message is about encouraging all 'bangla' globally to live like 'malaysians'

its about increasing life quality mindset

News & Blogs

2019-07-07 21:59 | Report Abuse

The are two drivers to this effect:

(1) one from the poor side who naturally reduce the future poor population by having lesser children.....focusing on quality more than quantity

(2) secondly from the rich capitalist side to expect lesser return by distributing a bigger portion of the gross income from investment (capital) to the workforce as wages.....coz if they dont the workforce population would shrink in the long run


"the grass which is healthy only to seed - (case 1 above)...and the tree to sacrifice by reducing its own leaf & branch size to allow more sunlight reaching the grass on the ground - (case 2 above)"

this way you have a healthier population of grass and a smaller sized trees..in coexistence

News & Blogs

2019-07-07 21:09 | Report Abuse

I think one possible easy solution to this would be restricting the amount childrens the poor could have (1 for poor and perhaps 2 for the medium and 3 or more for the rich ).....as the extreme rich 1% capital (all savings goes to capital) carries no value without the existence of a future massive poor population consumption...


this should have a natural balancing effect on wealth distribution

even if this suggestion is not enforced..i think the massive future poor generation will wake up (become smarter) and agree to this principle/concept..and practice it naturally

News & Blogs

2019-07-07 21:01 | Report Abuse

Dear sslee, there mere fact that you put effort, interest, curiosity fto think and find out whats happening with humanity...gives me pleasure..knowing someone else is concerned as much as i do

thanks

News & Blogs

2019-07-07 17:00 | Report Abuse

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/singapore-world-successful-society_b_7934988

"Singapore’s success is due to MPH: Meritocracy, Pragmatism and Honesty"

Kishore Mahbubani

Stock

2019-07-07 16:11 | Report Abuse

cash keep flowing out for upgrade and maintenance...bila mahu really grow?

Stock

2019-07-07 16:09 | Report Abuse

wei...415 M outflow of cash just to maintain complying spec Euro 5 ...is not a concern for you guys?

News & Blogs

2019-07-07 14:25 | Report Abuse

there is something seriously wrong with economics and wealth distribution...

total collective work output of all work forces = total income of all work forces

Total cumulative income ~ = total cumulative consumption + total cumulative assets

99% of the work forces in the the world are working harder and harder than ever before....

meaning the 'work output' is greater per unit capita
....................................................

BUT...the Quality of life is no different or in fact worst than our ancestors in village 50 years ago.. who had peace..love..tranquility and so much time for another human...

Now...humans may even need to extend kindergarten age to even 3 year old babies..(or play mozart while baby is in mother's womb to improve IQ)...and work till 70 years old and even have to give support taking care of grand children (else their children will suffer)..

look at the amount of time invested for 'Education' (nothing more than a garbage information to make money..does it improve human characteristics & wisdom?)..the amount of time wasted on the roads (traffic) and the amount of time sacrificed being away from family & friends for money...

despite all the developments & so called progress 99% of humans are having no better life than animals int NatGeo wild....constantly struggling to survive the moment it exits from the mother's womb..

This 1% capitalist has gone overboard...and the 99% will wake up to this truth eventually

News & Blogs

2019-07-06 18:00 | Report Abuse

he should come with an article how to increase salary of Malaysians first..he he

News & Blogs

2019-07-06 17:54 | Report Abuse

If the supplier made an unrealistic - over estimate on the demand...
let him suffer...

do not create artificial unsustainable demand

how can the bank come up with such a valuation...when there is no real future demand.

News & Blogs

2019-07-06 17:46 | Report Abuse

and..oh my... the article coming from the man of highest 'ethics' - moral value in i3 investing community..

News & Blogs

2019-07-06 17:41 | Report Abuse

two things i find disturbing in this article...

(1) how can a bank simply come with a valuation? say 1M like the author says...on what basis? Simply to lure innocent buyers with hopes?

(2) why chose the muslims populations as the potential innocent 'victims'? Are they considered 'exploitable' community?

News & Blogs

2019-07-04 00:04 | Report Abuse

he he..thats why i mentioned to keep it short

News & Blogs

2019-07-03 23:55 | Report Abuse

sifu sslee....you are needed here...please come with short and sharp information to enlighten all...

Stock

2019-07-03 21:37 | Report Abuse

thats super good return Punter! I am no where near that levek..

keep up the good work

Stock

2019-07-03 20:00 | Report Abuse

Nicely put Grahamnewman - good to have you in i3

Stock

2019-07-03 19:52 | Report Abuse

what happen to all the portfolio..all got deleted?

we need to see how far you had progressed

Stock

2019-07-03 19:50 | Report Abuse

i guessed so...ha ha..
not been keeping track on i3 for sometime earlier

Stock

2019-07-03 19:08 | Report Abuse

where is Heavenly Punter?

News & Blogs

2019-07-03 18:06 | Report Abuse

let the property collapse...it will inevitably collapse anyway...as the even distant future generation will never be able to afford it anyway..

this is already at last stage of the bubble...'this pyramid scheme' will collapse eventually..

dont be the last victim at the end of the pyramid scheme.

the supply has to bow and meet the demand...consumer is the KING

Let the property price collapse
...............................

News & Blogs

2019-07-03 18:02 | Report Abuse

You can live in a 'Container House"...you need not buy these properties......its not that you can afford to raise 5 kids like your parents did.

remember the money you fork out to buy these properties is what comes back as salary to you with a thin margin to motivate you to work and earn....its cyclic flow of money...

and at the end you stand a risk of this property price collapsing
all your had earned money to pay this property becomes nothing at the end

you are made worst than cattles and chicken reared to work and feed the rich...like a fish asked to swim around with a moving hook in front of it...

News & Blogs

2019-07-03 17:54 | Report Abuse

thats precisely the reason why young generations should NOT buy these properties at inflated price...

they will sell their self for the rest of their life to payback..

Let the property price collapse...
after all its just made of sands and cements dug from the soil

News & Blogs

2019-07-03 17:13 | Report Abuse

exactly what i did (i stayed with my first car of just RM 20k second hand for 10 years)...and its true indeed you can gain a million.

the gap between the paragraphs is too big..suggest you edit

Stock

2019-07-03 15:16 | Report Abuse

nothing is easy...you better choose what you are most competent with...thats the best you can do..even though there is no certainty of success doing that....

coz you will never know where you would fall on the normal bell curve in that strategy of yours relative to others....except by trial and error

Stock

2019-07-03 15:11 | Report Abuse

which one Icon..the 1 or 2 truly competent cat?

ha ha...agree must be difficult....and usually many bees like 3ii already flocking on it to make the price pretty expensive...

Stock

2019-07-03 14:38 | Report Abuse

we dont want the competitive edge pressure on the investment seeker itself (e,g TA analysis) cheoky....to constantly seek improvement..update and change methodology with flow of time.. struggle constantly to catch the better performing cat which is performing momentarily...

we want the peace of mind of catching that 1 or 2 truly competent cat and just watch it outperform consistently...time after time.. again..and again..

we want to relax ma


Posted by cheoky > Jul 3, 2019 2:31 PM | Report Abuse

All cat can catch mice is good cat. No need insist cat with sharp claws

Stock

2019-07-03 14:32 | Report Abuse

you couple that with 'growth opportunities'...'growth' meaning expansion of market....you will hit the jackpot i guess.

Stock

2019-07-03 14:28 | Report Abuse

Kinda agree with popo92 comments below. To me, from what i could understand so far...

MOAT = 'resilience' to margin erosion

its a function of 'time' factor incorporated in it.. on top of relatively 'high margin'

................

Also, I disagreed with your harsh comments on myeg had lost its moat. What we have seen with recent quarters, myeg had not yet seen any dwindling of margin. It is also replicating its business and system in philipines, indonesia and blangadesh. Indonesia government have allowed them with JV for the country GST implementing system, i do not know whether there is any direct political line involved but if there's no moat at all how they managed to get those contracts? To be honest, i have not seen a company doing this well with good margins and efficient among companies that serve government system and e services.

News & Blogs
Stock

2019-07-02 17:41 |

Post removed.Why?

News & Blogs

2019-07-01 20:48 | Report Abuse

The sole fundamental objective of a country is to gain competitive advantage against another...

Its like the citizen teamed up (with a reasonable assumption of fair wealth distribution) to form a business (the collective composite of all businesses owned by Malaysian)....and the game is about whose 'collective business" value is better against the others (foreigners)...

Any investment should be about to gain competitive advantage of the citizens or to generate net inflow of value to this 'collective business' of the country.... it should not be about making the foreigners them self become a part of this collective business owners.

hope to elaborate more clearly one day.

News & Blogs

2019-07-01 20:30 | Report Abuse

Just realized there were so much of discussion going on...i have not read everything...but these points of Philip seems prudent.


Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > Jun 29, 2019 5:54 PM | Report Abuse

Property overhang problems are not caused by lack of buyers, it is caused by greedy developers that wish to get the most bang for buck, and try to sell property at the highest price to make money.


my answer is very simple:

1) follow what is practiced at 1st world countries. Shift the system from sell first then build into a build first and sell system (similar to Australia etc). This introduces 2 benefits:

a) developers will be inclined to build what will really sell first and sell it at reasonable prices (as they need to build what people want to buy), making sure that there is enough buyers in the market to stop overheating and make sure supply and demand is at parity.

b) introduce a separate third party fund where buyers will put their money (and receive interest), which cannot be touched by the developer until the project is completed. This is to ensure that only qualified developers construct what they are capable of, do not bite more than they can chew, and ensures construction of trustworthy and reliable property that will last. no more overleveraging of developers to build unnecessary projects.

c) with the reduction of property overhang (speculation), there will be more resources and a search for better alpha, aka more individuals will be inclined to put money into good use in fixed deposit and bonds (for government to use in industrial, education, infrastructure and commercial projects to attract foreign investors), more money into stock market (to help growing and hardworking companies grow and get funding to grow their business and market and compete internationally).

One very good example is Yinson, hartalega and topglove, they could have transitioned from bus/rubber company into a development company (like scientex), but they transitioned into a fpso company and grab jobs internationally and pay taxes and dividends locally. On top of that, with money from institutions, bonds and individuals to help them raise more money, they are able to get more international orders and bring in the dividends from profits gained back into Malaysia.

Who benefits from property companies like TalamT? Asiapac?

Too much of just one thing is bad for the economy.

I believe money should be moved out from the property sector into growing our manufacturing and export sector. We need to stabilize the market from residential into a more balanced economy.

It can be done.


Imagine what would happen if we gave near unlimited capital to wonderful bursa companies to take on the world? What would happen then?

Samsung. Hyundai. Daewoo. Petronas. topglove. Hartalega. HapSeng. QL. Yinson. VS. United plantations. old town coffee. Inari. Liihen.

Imagine if we could help all those companies grow and export their talents internationally. the dividend inflow to Malaysia would increase the cash flow of Malaysians tremendously.

Lego.

News & Blogs

2019-07-01 20:26 | Report Abuse

I am not favour of foreigners buying our property.

It becomes not only selling a product but part of the business itself....its like threatening the major shareholder. In such a case we should allow foreign developers too...make everything that you as a citizen can do...the foreigner can do too.

Stock

2019-06-30 15:40 | Report Abuse

i recommend this title: 'The "Armada" strikes back'

News & Blogs

2019-06-30 13:06 | Report Abuse

dont play play with CP...he is the ultimate cockroach in i3!

fittest..had been surviving for billions of years..

News & Blogs

2019-06-23 22:51 | Report Abuse

sifu Icon...i always love to be angler..

what a brilliant summary:

.....

Angler tries to look into the future. Driftwood is of the view that it can thrive without knowing too much about the future (take care of the downside and the upside will take care of itself).

Surf Rider does not predict the future. For them, THE FUTURE IS ALREADY HERE.