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2020-04-15 07:10 | Report Abuse
Today there will be more going up to the V shape healing spike 0.12, 0.15, 0.20
2020-04-14 23:13 | Report Abuse
Tomorrow there will be more going up to the V shape healing spike
2020-04-14 23:10 | Report Abuse
2moro there will be more going up to the V shape healing spike to moon
2020-04-14 23:04 | Report Abuse
Tomorrow there will be more going up to the V shape healing
2020-04-14 23:03 | Report Abuse
Tomorrow there will be more going up to the V shape healing
2020-04-14 23:02 | Report Abuse
Tomorrow there will be more going up to the V shape healing
2020-04-14 23:01 | Report Abuse
Tomorrow there will be more going up to the V shape healing
2020-04-14 23:00 | Report Abuse
Tomorrow there will be more going up to the V shape healing
2020-04-14 22:59 | Report Abuse
Tomorrow there will be more going up to the V shape healing
2020-04-14 22:59 | Report Abuse
Tomorrow there will be more going up to the V shape healing
2020-04-14 22:57 | Report Abuse
Tomorrow there will be more going up to the V shape healing
2020-04-13 08:54 | Report Abuse
PETALING JAYA: Cement and steel manufactures may see trading interest after having been given the green light to resume operations under the movement control order (MCO) period, which has now been extended for another two weeks until April 28.
However, a slow pick-up in demand and potential delays in the rolling out of some infrastructure projects could weigh on these companies.
According to analysts, the initial one-month suspension of construction works has created some cashflow pressure to building materials players due to possible delays in payment from both the public and private sectors.
“Sustainability of these companies depend on the collection from the construction sector, which are also reeling from the MCO.
“Weighing on the minds of those in the construction and building materials sectors, plus property for that matter too, are uncertainties over how long Covid-19 will last and whether project deadlines will have to be pushed out, ” said one analyst.
UOB KayHian said it has reduced earnings forecasts for cement players due to the impact of the MCO, while for steel companies, they are “to remain in the red for 2020 given the lack of demand, excess supply and the continued downtrend of average selling prices (ASPs) of steel products.”
The research firm noted that year-to-date, steel bar prices have remained flattish against 2019’s average of RM2,124 per tonne.
“As at mid-March, steel bar price was recorded at RM2,105 per tonne which represents a 3.2% month-on-month contraction.
“We are of the view that steel prices will continue to be under pressure post-MCO, given that demand recovery is slated to be slower than expected as construction activities will be muted, ” it said in a report.
Another issue facing the steel segment is existing oversupply. This has yet to be resolved and will lead to further compression in steel ASPs, said analysts.
In the case of bulk cement prices, UOB KayHian noted that ASPs have eased from the peak in February.
The research firm believes that the move to raise industry-wide bulk cement ASPs (including that of smaller cement players) may now be delayed.
It noted that prior to the MCO, bulk cement ASPs still hovered at around RM240-250 per tonne for leading industry players.
“Recall that back in early February, smaller cement companies announced that price hikes of RM30-RM40 per tonne will materialise from March onwards to match the prices set by industry leaders.
“We are of the view that the cement price recovery may be gradual post-MCO and the implementation of a RM30-RM40 per tonne price hike may only materialise in the second half of 2020.”
2020-04-13 08:53 | Report Abuse
PETALING JAYA: Cement and steel manufactures may see trading interest after having been given the green light to resume operations under the movement control order (MCO) period, which has now been extended for another two weeks until April 28.
However, a slow pick-up in demand and potential delays in the rolling out of some infrastructure projects could weigh on these companies.
According to analysts, the initial one-month suspension of construction works has created some cashflow pressure to building materials players due to possible delays in payment from both the public and private sectors.
“Sustainability of these companies depend on the collection from the construction sector, which are also reeling from the MCO.
“Weighing on the minds of those in the construction and building materials sectors, plus property for that matter too, are uncertainties over how long Covid-19 will last and whether project deadlines will have to be pushed out, ” said one analyst.
UOB KayHian said it has reduced earnings forecasts for cement players due to the impact of the MCO, while for steel companies, they are “to remain in the red for 2020 given the lack of demand, excess supply and the continued downtrend of average selling prices (ASPs) of steel products.”
The research firm noted that year-to-date, steel bar prices have remained flattish against 2019’s average of RM2,124 per tonne.
“As at mid-March, steel bar price was recorded at RM2,105 per tonne which represents a 3.2% month-on-month contraction.
“We are of the view that steel prices will continue to be under pressure post-MCO, given that demand recovery is slated to be slower than expected as construction activities will be muted, ” it said in a report.
Another issue facing the steel segment is existing oversupply. This has yet to be resolved and will lead to further compression in steel ASPs, said analysts.
In the case of bulk cement prices, UOB KayHian noted that ASPs have eased from the peak in February.
The research firm believes that the move to raise industry-wide bulk cement ASPs (including that of smaller cement players) may now be delayed.
It noted that prior to the MCO, bulk cement ASPs still hovered at around RM240-250 per tonne for leading industry players.
“Recall that back in early February, smaller cement companies announced that price hikes of RM30-RM40 per tonne will materialise from March onwards to match the prices set by industry leaders.
“We are of the view that the cement price recovery may be gradual post-MCO and the implementation of a RM30-RM40 per tonne price hike may only materialise in the second half of 2020.”
2020-04-13 08:52 | Report Abuse
PETALING JAYA: Cement and steel manufactures may see trading interest after having been given the green light to resume operations under the movement control order (MCO) period, which has now been extended for another two weeks until April 28.
However, a slow pick-up in demand and potential delays in the rolling out of some infrastructure projects could weigh on these companies.
According to analysts, the initial one-month suspension of construction works has created some cashflow pressure to building materials players due to possible delays in payment from both the public and private sectors.
“Sustainability of these companies depend on the collection from the construction sector, which are also reeling from the MCO.
“Weighing on the minds of those in the construction and building materials sectors, plus property for that matter too, are uncertainties over how long Covid-19 will last and whether project deadlines will have to be pushed out, ” said one analyst.
UOB KayHian said it has reduced earnings forecasts for cement players due to the impact of the MCO, while for steel companies, they are “to remain in the red for 2020 given the lack of demand, excess supply and the continued downtrend of average selling prices (ASPs) of steel products.”
The research firm noted that year-to-date, steel bar prices have remained flattish against 2019’s average of RM2,124 per tonne.
“As at mid-March, steel bar price was recorded at RM2,105 per tonne which represents a 3.2% month-on-month contraction.
“We are of the view that steel prices will continue to be under pressure post-MCO, given that demand recovery is slated to be slower than expected as construction activities will be muted, ” it said in a report.
Another issue facing the steel segment is existing oversupply. This has yet to be resolved and will lead to further compression in steel ASPs, said analysts.
In the case of bulk cement prices, UOB KayHian noted that ASPs have eased from the peak in February.
The research firm believes that the move to raise industry-wide bulk cement ASPs (including that of smaller cement players) may now be delayed.
It noted that prior to the MCO, bulk cement ASPs still hovered at around RM240-250 per tonne for leading industry players.
“Recall that back in early February, smaller cement companies announced that price hikes of RM30-RM40 per tonne will materialise from March onwards to match the prices set by industry leaders.
“We are of the view that the cement price recovery may be gradual post-MCO and the implementation of a RM30-RM40 per tonne price hike may only materialise in the second half of 2020.”
2020-04-13 08:51 | Report Abuse
PETALING JAYA: Cement and steel manufactures may see trading interest after having been given the green light to resume operations under the movement control order (MCO) period, which has now been extended for another two weeks until April 28.
However, a slow pick-up in demand and potential delays in the rolling out of some infrastructure projects could weigh on these companies.
According to analysts, the initial one-month suspension of construction works has created some cashflow pressure to building materials players due to possible delays in payment from both the public and private sectors.
“Sustainability of these companies depend on the collection from the construction sector, which are also reeling from the MCO.
“Weighing on the minds of those in the construction and building materials sectors, plus property for that matter too, are uncertainties over how long Covid-19 will last and whether project deadlines will have to be pushed out, ” said one analyst.
UOB KayHian said it has reduced earnings forecasts for cement players due to the impact of the MCO, while for steel companies, they are “to remain in the red for 2020 given the lack of demand, excess supply and the continued downtrend of average selling prices (ASPs) of steel products.”
The research firm noted that year-to-date, steel bar prices have remained flattish against 2019’s average of RM2,124 per tonne.
“As at mid-March, steel bar price was recorded at RM2,105 per tonne which represents a 3.2% month-on-month contraction.
“We are of the view that steel prices will continue to be under pressure post-MCO, given that demand recovery is slated to be slower than expected as construction activities will be muted, ” it said in a report.
Another issue facing the steel segment is existing oversupply. This has yet to be resolved and will lead to further compression in steel ASPs, said analysts.
In the case of bulk cement prices, UOB KayHian noted that ASPs have eased from the peak in February.
The research firm believes that the move to raise industry-wide bulk cement ASPs (including that of smaller cement players) may now be delayed.
It noted that prior to the MCO, bulk cement ASPs still hovered at around RM240-250 per tonne for leading industry players.
“Recall that back in early February, smaller cement companies announced that price hikes of RM30-RM40 per tonne will materialise from March onwards to match the prices set by industry leaders.
“We are of the view that the cement price recovery may be gradual post-MCO and the implementation of a RM30-RM40 per tonne price hike may only materialise in the second half of 2020.”
2020-04-13 07:25 | Report Abuse
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil futures were little changed on Sunday even after major oil producers reached a deal for a record 10 million bpd output cut, with analysts saying the agreement is insufficient to head off oversupply as the coronavirus hammers demand.
Total global oil supply cuts could come to 20 million barrels per day, around 20% of global supply, Kuwait's oil minister said. After four days of wrangling, OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing nations, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to cut output by a record amount of 9.7 million barrels per day, representing around 10% of global supply to support oil prices amid the pandemic, sources said.
2020-04-13 07:24 | Report Abuse
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil futures were little changed on Sunday even after major oil producers reached a deal for a record 10 million bpd output cut, with analysts saying the agreement is insufficient to head off oversupply as the coronavirus hammers demand.
Total global oil supply cuts could come to 20 million barrels per day, around 20% of global supply, Kuwait's oil minister said. After four days of wrangling, OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing nations, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to cut output by a record amount of 9.7 million barrels per day, representing around 10% of global supply to support oil prices amid the pandemic, sources said.
2020-04-13 07:23 | Report Abuse
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil futures were little changed on Sunday even after major oil producers reached a deal for a record 10 million bpd output cut, with analysts saying the agreement is insufficient to head off oversupply as the coronavirus hammers demand.
Total global oil supply cuts could come to 20 million barrels per day, around 20% of global supply, Kuwait's oil minister said. After four days of wrangling, OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing nations, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to cut output by a record amount of 9.7 million barrels per day, representing around 10% of global supply to support oil prices amid the pandemic, sources said.
2020-04-13 07:23 | Report Abuse
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil futures were little changed on Sunday even after major oil producers reached a deal for a record 10 million bpd output cut, with analysts saying the agreement is insufficient to head off oversupply as the coronavirus hammers demand.
Total global oil supply cuts could come to 20 million barrels per day, around 20% of global supply, Kuwait's oil minister said. After four days of wrangling, OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing nations, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to cut output by a record amount of 9.7 million barrels per day, representing around 10% of global supply to support oil prices amid the pandemic, sources said.
2020-04-13 07:22 | Report Abuse
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil futures were little changed on Sunday even after major oil producers reached a deal for a record 10 million bpd output cut, with analysts saying the agreement is insufficient to head off oversupply as the coronavirus hammers demand.
Total global oil supply cuts could come to 20 million barrels per day, around 20% of global supply, Kuwait's oil minister said. After four days of wrangling, OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing nations, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to cut output by a record amount of 9.7 million barrels per day, representing around 10% of global supply to support oil prices amid the pandemic, sources said.
2020-04-13 07:22 | Report Abuse
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil futures were little changed on Sunday even after major oil producers reached a deal for a record 10 million bpd output cut, with analysts saying the agreement is insufficient to head off oversupply as the coronavirus hammers demand.
Total global oil supply cuts could come to 20 million barrels per day, around 20% of global supply, Kuwait's oil minister said. After four days of wrangling, OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing nations, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to cut output by a record amount of 9.7 million barrels per day, representing around 10% of global supply to support oil prices amid the pandemic, sources said.
2020-04-13 07:21 | Report Abuse
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil futures were little changed on Sunday even after major oil producers reached a deal for a record 10 million bpd output cut, with analysts saying the agreement is insufficient to head off oversupply as the coronavirus hammers demand.
Total global oil supply cuts could come to 20 million barrels per day, around 20% of global supply, Kuwait's oil minister said. After four days of wrangling, OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing nations, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to cut output by a record amount of 9.7 million barrels per day, representing around 10% of global supply to support oil prices amid the pandemic, sources said.
2020-04-12 22:09 | Report Abuse
Reversal signal, buy back 15/4/2020?
2020-04-12 09:23 | Report Abuse
DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia plans to announce its crude prices for May on Sunday, a source told Reuters, having delayed the official release until after it finalizes a global oil supply cut deal.
2020-04-12 09:21 | Report Abuse
Bankrupcy margin call toilet paper..pension saving gone..gelendangan now..no food..nn shelter..no cloth..human become evil in market shares..
2020-04-12 09:01 | Report Abuse
DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia plans to announce its crude prices for May on Sunday, a source told Reuters, having delayed the official release until after it finalizes a global oil supply cut deal.
2020-04-12 08:58 | Report Abuse
DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia plans to announce its crude prices for May on Sunday, a source told Reuters, having delayed the official release until after it finalizes a global oil supply cut deal.
2020-04-12 08:57 | Report Abuse
DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia plans to announce its crude prices for May on Sunday, a source told Reuters, having delayed the official release until after it finalizes a global oil supply cut deal.
2020-04-12 08:56 | Report Abuse
DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia plans to announce its crude prices for May on Sunday, a source told Reuters, having delayed the official release until after it finalizes a global oil supply cut deal.
2020-04-12 08:55 | Report Abuse
DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia plans to announce its crude prices for May on Sunday, a source told Reuters, having delayed the official release until after it finalizes a global oil supply cut deal.
2020-04-11 07:18 | Report Abuse
Covid-19 has made a mockery of just about any plan made a month ago. Global oil demand has dropped by perhaps a third. If people aren’t buying fuel, then refiners aren’t buying crude oil, which means producers are selling into a void - and therefore must cut.
The last time OPEC+ met, its members said they would be opening the taps to reassert their control of the oil market. Barely a month later, they are set to ... tighten the taps ... to reassert ... you see the problem.
Covid-19 has made a mockery of just about any plan made a month ago. Global oil demand has dropped by perhaps a third. If people aren’t buying fuel, then refiners aren’t buying crude oil, which means producers are selling into a void - and therefore must cut. Thursday’s fractious OPEC+ meeting - with Mexico taking a starring, stubborn role - was all about apportioning unappetizing slices of a cake called inevitability.
By Friday afternoon, as a meeting of the energy ministers for the Group of 20 countries wound down, an agreement of sorts was in place. But Mexico’s role remained unclear and the G-20’s draft statement offered only vague support for efforts to stabilize the oil market. If this is the cavalry riding to the rescue, it is just as well the market isn’t open.
There is one salient point to focus on: Even the headline OPEC+ cuts can’t prevent a big buildup in inventories. The best producers can hope for is to flatten the curve on that and avoid storage space running out altogether, which would likely push prices into single digits. OPEC estimates demand is down roughly 12 million barrels a day for the quarter. Under that scenario, the agreed cut of almost 10 million barrels a day for May and June would still mean half the remaining onshore storage capacity filling up by July 1.
As it is, that 10-ish million figure likely overstates the true immediate cut, given Mexico’s ambivalence and the fact that the figure is set against production levels from last fall. Russia’s commitment to cut 2.5 million barrels a day - beyond what the market forces upon it - looks especially ambitious. Meanwhile, OPEC’s estimate for demand destruction may well be optimistic and, in any case, there’s no telling how quickly demand will recover.
This may well explain the planned set of tapered cuts adding up to five billion barrels over two years. But who’s really buying a two-year target set by a group that broke up in acrimony mere weeks ago and was held hostage by Mexico over a few hundred thousands of barrels a day? This is a coalition formed under duress and now reformed under yet greater duress; picture a giant feuding family suddenly forced to quarantine together for at least two months. OPEC+ shouldn’t be willing to tolerate Mexico’s intransigence and Mexico shouldn’t want to belong to a group that would. Yet here they are.
This should temper the bullishness that got going a week ago after President Donald Trump’s 10 million barrel tweet. It has been astonishing to watch the rally of almost 30% in exploration and production stockssince then. Production in the shale fields is starting to roll over already, with the sharp drop in fracking crews a leading indicator (see this). The resulting natural decline was all the U.S. "offered” at Friday’s damp squib of a G-20 meeting. Trump also indicated market forces had already taken care of the other oil "cuts” he offered, seemingly without success, to smooth over the Mexican spat (translation: don’t bank on any actual incremental barrels leaving the market).
Trump will no doubt spin all this as art-of-the-deal anyway. Like the OPEC+ cuts, though, it is just a demand shock doing its thing. Trump’s threatened tariffs on barrels if no OPEC+ deal was forthcoming were bluster, given they would raise consumer costs in a recession and ahead of an election; hurt oil majors and refiners; and might not even do much for frackers, whose light crude is simply less valuable with gasoline and jet-fuel demand tanking.
Regardless of long-term targets, adherence to cuts beyond June, particularly on the part of Russia, will be determined by the pace of recovery in demand and the pace of decline in supply from other countries - especially the U.S. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia may be suffering in absolute terms (see this) but it also has worked assiduously not merely to bring Moscow to heel but to tighten screws on the more ebullient members of the fracking crowd. This is a temporary truce in a multilateral fight between the big three oil powers.
So anyone piling back into E&P stocks on hopes for this OPEC+ agreement should know their sector’s continued suffering is critical to its maintenance. Frackers now face an oil market where the old supposed certainties of demand growth, easy financing and the OPEC+ put can no longer be taken for granted. Restructuring and rationalization are unavoidable.
2020-04-11 07:18 | Report Abuse
Covid-19 has made a mockery of just about any plan made a month ago. Global oil demand has dropped by perhaps a third. If people aren’t buying fuel, then refiners aren’t buying crude oil, which means producers are selling into a void - and therefore must cut.
The last time OPEC+ met, its members said they would be opening the taps to reassert their control of the oil market. Barely a month later, they are set to ... tighten the taps ... to reassert ... you see the problem.
Covid-19 has made a mockery of just about any plan made a month ago. Global oil demand has dropped by perhaps a third. If people aren’t buying fuel, then refiners aren’t buying crude oil, which means producers are selling into a void - and therefore must cut. Thursday’s fractious OPEC+ meeting - with Mexico taking a starring, stubborn role - was all about apportioning unappetizing slices of a cake called inevitability.
By Friday afternoon, as a meeting of the energy ministers for the Group of 20 countries wound down, an agreement of sorts was in place. But Mexico’s role remained unclear and the G-20’s draft statement offered only vague support for efforts to stabilize the oil market. If this is the cavalry riding to the rescue, it is just as well the market isn’t open.
There is one salient point to focus on: Even the headline OPEC+ cuts can’t prevent a big buildup in inventories. The best producers can hope for is to flatten the curve on that and avoid storage space running out altogether, which would likely push prices into single digits. OPEC estimates demand is down roughly 12 million barrels a day for the quarter. Under that scenario, the agreed cut of almost 10 million barrels a day for May and June would still mean half the remaining onshore storage capacity filling up by July 1.
As it is, that 10-ish million figure likely overstates the true immediate cut, given Mexico’s ambivalence and the fact that the figure is set against production levels from last fall. Russia’s commitment to cut 2.5 million barrels a day - beyond what the market forces upon it - looks especially ambitious. Meanwhile, OPEC’s estimate for demand destruction may well be optimistic and, in any case, there’s no telling how quickly demand will recover.
This may well explain the planned set of tapered cuts adding up to five billion barrels over two years. But who’s really buying a two-year target set by a group that broke up in acrimony mere weeks ago and was held hostage by Mexico over a few hundred thousands of barrels a day? This is a coalition formed under duress and now reformed under yet greater duress; picture a giant feuding family suddenly forced to quarantine together for at least two months. OPEC+ shouldn’t be willing to tolerate Mexico’s intransigence and Mexico shouldn’t want to belong to a group that would. Yet here they are.
This should temper the bullishness that got going a week ago after President Donald Trump’s 10 million barrel tweet. It has been astonishing to watch the rally of almost 30% in exploration and production stockssince then. Production in the shale fields is starting to roll over already, with the sharp drop in fracking crews a leading indicator (see this). The resulting natural decline was all the U.S. "offered” at Friday’s damp squib of a G-20 meeting. Trump also indicated market forces had already taken care of the other oil "cuts” he offered, seemingly without success, to smooth over the Mexican spat (translation: don’t bank on any actual incremental barrels leaving the market).
Trump will no doubt spin all this as art-of-the-deal anyway. Like the OPEC+ cuts, though, it is just a demand shock doing its thing. Trump’s threatened tariffs on barrels if no OPEC+ deal was forthcoming were bluster, given they would raise consumer costs in a recession and ahead of an election; hurt oil majors and refiners; and might not even do much for frackers, whose light crude is simply less valuable with gasoline and jet-fuel demand tanking.
Regardless of long-term targets, adherence to cuts beyond June, particularly on the part of Russia, will be determined by the pace of recovery in demand and the pace of decline in supply from other countries - especially the U.S. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia may be suffering in absolute terms (see this) but it also has worked assiduously not merely to bring Moscow to heel but to tighten screws on the more ebullient members of the fracking crowd. This is a temporary truce in a multilateral fight between the big three oil powers.
So anyone piling back into E&P stocks on hopes for this OPEC+ agreement should know their sector’s continued suffering is critical to its maintenance. Frackers now face an oil market where the old supposed certainties of demand growth, easy financing and the OPEC+ put can no longer be taken for granted. Restructuring and rationalization are unavoidable. After a week of high drama, expect this reality to reassert itself.
2020-04-11 07:17 | Report Abuse
Covid-19 has made a mockery of just about any plan made a month ago. Global oil demand has dropped by perhaps a third. If people aren’t buying fuel, then refiners aren’t buying crude oil, which means producers are selling into a void - and therefore must cut.
The last time OPEC+ met, its members said they would be opening the taps to reassert their control of the oil market. Barely a month later, they are set to ... tighten the taps ... to reassert ... you see the problem.
Covid-19 has made a mockery of just about any plan made a month ago. Global oil demand has dropped by perhaps a third. If people aren’t buying fuel, then refiners aren’t buying crude oil, which means producers are selling into a void - and therefore must cut. Thursday’s fractious OPEC+ meeting - with Mexico taking a starring, stubborn role - was all about apportioning unappetizing slices of a cake called inevitability.
By Friday afternoon, as a meeting of the energy ministers for the Group of 20 countries wound down, an agreement of sorts was in place. But Mexico’s role remained unclear and the G-20’s draft statement offered only vague support for efforts to stabilize the oil market. If this is the cavalry riding to the rescue, it is just as well the market isn’t open.
There is one salient point to focus on: Even the headline OPEC+ cuts can’t prevent a big buildup in inventories. The best producers can hope for is to flatten the curve on that and avoid storage space running out altogether, which would likely push prices into single digits. OPEC estimates demand is down roughly 12 million barrels a day for the quarter. Under that scenario, the agreed cut of almost 10 million barrels a day for May and June would still mean half the remaining onshore storage capacity filling up by July 1.
As it is, that 10-ish million figure likely overstates the true immediate cut, given Mexico’s ambivalence and the fact that the figure is set against production levels from last fall. Russia’s commitment to cut 2.5 million barrels a day - beyond what the market forces upon it - looks especially ambitious. Meanwhile, OPEC’s estimate for demand destruction may well be optimistic and, in any case, there’s no telling how quickly demand will recover.
This may well explain the planned set of tapered cuts adding up to five billion barrels over two years. But who’s really buying a two-year target set by a group that broke up in acrimony mere weeks ago and was held hostage by Mexico over a few hundred thousands of barrels a day? This is a coalition formed under duress and now reformed under yet greater duress; picture a giant feuding family suddenly forced to quarantine together for at least two months. OPEC+ shouldn’t be willing to tolerate Mexico’s intransigence and Mexico shouldn’t want to belong to a group that would. Yet here they are.
This should temper the bullishness that got going a week ago after President Donald Trump’s 10 million barrel tweet. It has been astonishing to watch the rally of almost 30% in exploration and production stockssince then. Production in the shale fields is starting to roll over already, with the sharp drop in fracking crews a leading indicator (see this). The resulting natural decline was all the U.S. "offered” at Friday’s damp squib of a G-20 meeting. Trump also indicated market forces had already taken care of the other oil "cuts” he offered, seemingly without success, to smooth over the Mexican spat (translation: don’t bank on any actual incremental barrels leaving the market).
Trump will no doubt spin all this as art-of-the-deal anyway. Like the OPEC+ cuts, though, it is just a demand shock doing its thing. Trump’s threatened tariffs on barrels if no OPEC+ deal was forthcoming were bluster, given they would raise consumer costs in a recession and ahead of an election; hurt oil majors and refiners; and might not even do much for frackers, whose light crude is simply less valuable with gasoline and jet-fuel demand tanking.
Regardless of long-term targets, adherence to cuts beyond June, particularly on the part of Russia, will be determined by the pace of recovery in demand and the pace of decline in supply from other countries - especially the U.S. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia may be suffering in absolute terms (see this) but it also has worked assiduously not merely to bring Moscow to heel but to tighten screws on the more ebullient members of the fracking crowd. This is a temporary truce in a multilateral fight between the big three oil powers.
So anyone piling back into E&P stocks on hopes for this OPEC+ agreement should know their sector’s continued suffering is critical to its maintenance. Frackers now face an oil market where the old supposed certainties of demand growth, easy financing and the OPEC+ put can no longer be taken for granted. Restructuring and rationalization are unavoidable. After a week of high drama, expect this reality to reassert itself.
2020-04-10 08:18 | Report Abuse
The UAE has received an invitation to participate as an honorary guest in the G20 Energy Ministers Meeting, which will be held remotely on Friday, April 10, the Ministry of Energy and Industry said.
2020-04-10 08:17 | Report Abuse
The UAE has received an invitation to participate as an honorary guest in the G20 Energy Ministers Meeting, which will be held remotely on Friday, April 10, the Ministry of Energy and Industry said.
2020-04-10 08:15 | Report Abuse
The UAE has received an invitation to participate as an honorary guest in the G20 Energy Ministers Meeting, which will be held remotely on Friday, April 10, the Ministry of Energy and Industry said.
2020-04-10 07:39 | Report Abuse
The UAE has received an invitation to participate as an honorary guest in the G20 Energy Ministers Meeting, which will be held remotely on Friday, April 10, the Ministry of Energy and Industry said.
2020-04-10 07:38 | Report Abuse
The UAE has received an invitation to participate as an honorary guest in the G20 Energy Ministers Meeting, which will be held remotely on Friday, April 10, the Ministry of Energy and Industry said.
2020-04-10 07:37 | Report Abuse
The UAE has received an invitation to participate as an honorary guest in the G20 Energy Ministers Meeting, which will be held remotely on Friday, April 10, the Ministry of Energy and Industry said.
2020-04-10 07:37 | Report Abuse
The UAE has received an invitation to participate as an honorary guest in the G20 Energy Ministers Meeting, which will be held remotely on Friday, April 10, the Ministry of Energy and Industry said.
2020-04-10 07:36 | Report Abuse
The UAE has received an invitation to participate as an honorary guest in the G20 Energy Ministers Meeting, which will be held remotely on Friday, April 10, the Ministry of Energy and Industry said.
Stock: [SAPNRG]: SAPURA ENERGY BERHAD
2020-04-15 22:10 | Report Abuse
Fair price 0.06