Floating tickets are drying up. Share price will be lifted up like the hungry alligator jumping out from the water.

The sales was boomed by re-opening of Malaysia-Singapore borders. In mid-term future, the sales of motorcycles will be supported by rising car prices and B40's weaker affordability for car.

When the coming quarterly result is finally announced, the share price has a possibility to reach RM 10.

Hi Alexnada, because it is going to show record high of quarterly revenue (quite sure) and EPS (>50% sure) in the quarterly report that is to be released soon. And looking at the share price pattern, I suspect someone is trying to put a ceiling in order to collect more tickets from impatient shareholders before the good news is finally released.

I'm expecting 13~14 sen EPS for Q3 and 30 sen dividend per share next year.

I'm trying to be conservative

It has now happened for quite some time. With recent Q4 result I think the price will inch slowly towards RM 10 till the announcement of next quarter result. For the share price to grow to RM 10, it requires annual EPS of close to RM 1 and annual dividend that is close to 60 sen, in view of rising interest rate environment and trend.

May I know where to search for Indonesian CPO monthly stock balance? Thanks

Let's guess how much is the EPS for Q2 for plantation sector. Me: 54 sen

@1LegKick, very good sharing.

It is accumulating energy and momentum to revisit RM9 or higher. This may happen by end of Aug.

Not surprising with defensive business and good dividend yield.

And you know how much pop corn money you can save by watching movie at home throghout the year?

At time of recession, middle class will reduce their expenditure for entertainment. But I think sound speaker is quite basic because the cheapest entertainment one can have in a modern day is to watch movie at home (especially for a family of 4 or 5) instead of going to cenema, or listening to radio instead of going to concert. For teenagers, it may be playing computer games instead of going out for vocation. None of this can be done in a decent way without a proper speaker or sound system. First they did it because they have the money but not the freedom to travel due to covid, now they are going to do it again because they don't have enough money for more expensive activities. Same thing for different reasons.

Some fund managers might be looking at these opportunities to buy a stake in FPI anytime from now.

I anticipate the attraction will turn strong when the price touches RM 2.50 (dividend yield 8%). I believe Q2 result will remain strong and so it gives very strong support at RM 2.50 from now to end of August. By end of August the price movement will be again driven by Q2 result and US economic outlook. So I think reward is higher than risk at prices below RM 2.50.

There's more small shareholders in this stock. So price is more volatile. According to TA downside risk is high so it encourages TA investors to sell. Fundamental wise I guess in coming one year profit will stay stagnant because of interest rate hike and inflation which will erode the purchasing power of consumers. This will somewhat cancel off the bullish outlook of smart audio and musical instrument demand. To be Conservative, expecting annual EPS 35 sen and dividend 20 sen.

Hi Pinky, according to my calculation the outstanding options if fully exercised will cause the total number of shares to increase about 2.6%, am I right? Thanks

To be conservative, assume EPS and dividend in 2022 to be the same as 2021.

Not much "useful" information in the first part of AGM. The screen also turns blurr sometime. The video quality is not so good.

Looks like the report will only come out by tomorrow.

Hi YoongGer, that's built on one assumption where FPI is able to retain good customers and high margin works.

Let's guess the EPS for 2022 Q1. Starts from me. 9.9 sen or better.

If there are no contradictory views they price won't stay at 14.50 now. This price is good for both buyers and sellers. Haha.

Crossing my fingers

Anyone here own a palm oil plantation? What is the cost per metric tonne of FFB for small planter (labor, fertiliser, pesticide and herbicide included) ?

EPS reduction in Q1 is expected to recover once the raw material cost increase due to Ukraine-Russia war is transferred in Q2. Management is aiming for double digit revenue growth in consecutive 3 years starts from this year.

Hope there is EPS 11 sen per share

@JKing, may I know how did you get the magic number RM 25-30 million net profit for 2022 Q1?

I revised my estimation on the net profit of the plantation segment for 2022 Q2 to 40 sen.

@JKing, so you expect EPS 2022 Q1 to be about the same qoq.

I think FPI pay 1800 and above. Last year was 1500 if not mistaken.

@LossAversion, have you visited UP plantation before? Did you visit the refinery? I hope I would be able to visit these places one day but getting the entry permit might be difficult. Visiting Bernam Bakery should be a more realistic goal. :)

I bought a little bit at below 15.50 not long after market open today. Some unstable shareholdings might have been knocked out. But still, EPF might be continue selling. I think next 12 months we might be able to get total RM 1.50 dividend per share. I hope UP boss wouldn't laugh at me if I'm wrong. :)

Other than that, some companies that practice lean manufacturing and just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing has changed their strategy, that is, to build stock for critical components. Also, the addition of inventories are only around 5% of its cost of sales and so I think it is within reasonable level. Furthermore, if it is in expansion mode to bring in more projects / customres, it will have to purchase and stock inventories for these new projects in advance.

I know some renown home appliances manufacturer was forced to produce "less smart" product variant because short of chips instead of planned smart product.

@gohku, I agree with you on that point to a certain extent. And I think that's why FPI own different subsidiaries at different addresses.
@Thirai Thiraviam, if there is serious shortage of semiconductor chip the finished goods cannot be completed. So short of a cheap component can cause the whole expensive FG locked as inventory. So it is possible. The inventories has came down from a peak in Q2 (157 m) to Q4 (89 m). Inventory turnover in 2021 as a whole is 11.5, lower than 2019 (14.5) and 2020 (13.9) but about the same compares to 2017 (11.6) and 2018 (11.4).

I see quite a few people saying Roland is the customer B but I'm not sure why they say so. I did guessed Roland has been customer B but recently I think I could be wrong. We all are certain that Wistron is the customer C. The annual report does not tell who is customer A and B. Many think that Sony is one of the top two. I would like to ask could it be Bose and Denon instead?

The Wistron PJ plant, I believe is meant for other production transfer from China yet to be completed in 2022, rather than from FPI, and may spill some benefit to FPI, although in 2021 revenue from Wistron reduced mildly by around 5.3%.

In contrast, accute reduction of work force is worrying because it could be a signal of declining business in near future which the income statement has yet to observe. However, I think that's due to difficulty to get labor replacement rather than loss of business.

@Thirai Thiraviam, thanks for your valuable technical analysis. That's worth to take note.
@JKing, AR page 5 mentioned the labour shortage issue. "The Group anticipates this year to be a very challenging year in view of market volatility, supply chain issue, rising commodity and energy prices and labour shortage issue..." So I think the reduction of work force is not an intended result. Instead, the semi-automation and selective automation could be forced by labor shortage.

I won't give up to learn until I have no question. :)

@Stockraider, when I look up FCPO prices, trade can be done as far as year 2023 from now but you said it could only be contracted 3 months ahead. Please enlighten me. Thanks.

@investor2021trading, does it irritate you? :)
@Stockraider, I've got the answer from AR page 95. For Unitata, 96% of FFB are from own estate. For UniFuji, 59% are from own palm oil mill.

If things could be understood correctly, investors regardless of their capital size and age will be smart enough to make their own independent judgment. So it is more meaningful to discuss the knowledge than buying / selling opinion.

@Abba84, :) Not sure for the rest but I know one thing that is more important than investment profit / loss, i.e., being a more sophisticated investor.

Dear friends, so far I assume that
(i) all the FFB produced by the UP plantation segment are processed by UP owned refineries to become refined palm oil, and <--- I have already verified this is true (for crops in Malaysia)
(ii) Unitata and UniFuji refine almost only CPO from UP owned crops where the external crops only contribute to less than 5% as the feedstock for these two refineries <--- This should be correct according to the AR but just wanna check if I understand correctly
Am I right? Did anyone study this before? Thanks

Dear friends, so far I assume that
(i) all the FFB produced by the UP plantation segment are processed by UP owned refineries to become refined palm oil, and
(ii) Unitata and UniFuji refine almost only CPO from UP owned crops where the external crops only contribute to less than 5% as the feedstock for these two refineries
Am I right? Did anyone study this before? Thanks

So you can see the surge in receivables also.

This 167m adds to the receivable (because it is recoverable). This is the deposit paid when FCPO is sold to ensure customer that you as a producer wont breach the contract and sell the goods to other customer at higher price in future.