Remember I predicted 2022 Q4 profit should be about the same or slightly higher than 2022 Q3, that's based on data too. If you like to follow my posts, go check other posts and judge yourself.

As for collecting after ex-, I tell you, experience told me that, the share price wont respond to what you say or what I say. Don't be naive. Experience told me that, investors are stubborn, and always regret after some time. The reason I share is to ex-change thought. You know who are the active big investors behind this stock in recent days trading then you won't be able to think like that.

It is true a lot of coffee business mushrooms. I hope they bought Jura machines. But after a few days of study and data collection, I changed my mind. The data changed my mind. I guess you havent sold your shares. You should be glad I tell you early. Those who do their homework will be able to understand and verify my thought.

Under this environment, consumer will downgrade their requirement to opt for manual and cheaper machines. This is because many M40 in Europe has become B40.

Very bad coffee machine sales (approx. reduced by half) in US market observed in 2023 Q1 due to sky high inflation and living cost. Inflation is even higher in Europe than in USA. Plus the expiry of tax exemption for 5/6 of the total products, I think profit will be shockingly damaged in coming Q1 report. Also Jura is facing very very fierce competition from Italy. The chances for Uchi price to fall below RM 3 ex-dividend and after announcement of Q1 report is now 70% according to my opinion.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/664904

Wow, nice treat.

Hi Mooven, out of my curiosity, may I ask you what was the door gift? :)

Hi Observatory, it is both seasonality and more rain Q1 this year. The pattern I mentioned can be seen more obviously by m-o-m. You will find every year there is a sharp output recovery m-o-m. It normally happen around Mar +/- one month. This year it seems to happen in Mar-Apr. Let's see the crop output for Apr which is to be announced around 10th of May to verify.

For specific reason I was not able to attend the AGM yesterday. Is anyone happy to share what's been going on in the AGM?

And I think after the "great inflation era", it is not realistic to expect CPO to go down with meaningful trading volume at prices below RM 3,500 / MT. That is because at any price lower than that it will knock out new competitors and lots of small planters because production cost has been really expensive. This means that RM 3,500 / MT is already a very competitive price. I came to this conclusion after months of collecting data and research. If any analyst tell you the CPO price may go down to RM 2k++ based on the variation of movement of commodity price chart, that's plain bullsh*t.

Maybe some of you may be interested to know:
1. Production - the production rate normally "U-turn" and accelerate in the month of Mar or Apr. This pattern occured consistently every year and can be easily checked through historical monthly production data.
2. 2023 Q1 CPO selling price of RM 3,668 / MT is expected to be the lowest in year 2023. Much of these were contracted at RM 3,470 / MT back in year 2021, pulling down the average selling price in current quarter. The average selling price in 2023 Q2 is estimated to be considerably higher, at RM 3,812 / MT. This will further increase in 2H of 2023.

Hi Ooihk899, I think RM 1.10 minimum is quite possible. But I'm a little bit disappointed that more fertiliser were applied in Q1 but yielded a lot less fruits.

And because of high labour cost (salary), the operator are using machines so they could sell at more affordable price while saving headcount.

Since early 2023, coffee shops pop up like mushrooms in europe. You can see people selling coffee everywhere.

My estimation is 29.6~33.7 sen with higher chances on the lower side.

Guess how much is EPS for Q1?

Going to announce 2023 Q1 earning soon

Durian feast? Not mentioned in the notice leh... U makan their durian before ah?

Too bad this year AGM not to be done on-line. Unable to visit. The venue is Dewan Sanmarka Orang India. Why this time no more inside the estate? Thought got a chance to visit the estate, haiz...

True.

Hi Lionel Messi, targeted fuel subsidy in the brew as you expected.

I hope the durian tree can give us durian this year.

Throughout the 100 years history of UTDPLT, I didn't find any record of selling land (please correct me if I am wrong). So it may not be proper to measure the target price using the land value for small shareholders. But I agree that it worth more than RM 20 by asset value.

guess some of the customers already permanently left during MCO and stick to other suppliers. Destroyed by Ding Ding.

Technical rebound

How much is the potato chip in Eco Shop?

Hi Stockraider, I think Guocera should split from HLIND and pay the cash out as dividend so that we have the freedom whether or not to put that money into Guocera. So I think it has not done the best for shareholders like us. The earning and yield is still OK, but not attractive. It is a kind of stock you can only trust with a small percentage of your asset just like a stabiliser in a bottle of peanut butter.

Not likely to declare special dividend this year because the CEO mentioned before that they do not wish to increase the frequency of paying dividend in order to save cost. But we should not exclude the possibility of such corporate proposal in coming years. And of course, I will give this proposal a warm welcome.

Only when you can't take down that buffalo alone then only you look for a partner to do it, right? You look for a partner or associated company only when this is more profitable than you doing it alone, at least this is what normal shareholders think.

Hi Kwteoh, you're right that Wistron holds FPI shares. Wistron used to give some business to FPI, but contribution from Wistron has gradually reduce for the past 3 years (this is a public info you can get from Annual report). Why isn't possible for Wistron to take back a good business that she had once before awarded to its associated company (FPI) "to reward her shareholders"? If you as a Wistron's major shareholder and you win Sonos' contract through your own effort, why share it with people when you have already built your capacity to DIY?

I do not have evidence that FPI did not benefit from Sonos, but based on the revenue I believe so. I didn't see exploding growth of revenue in 2022.

Hi Pinnaclegrade,
1) Sonos' project goes to Wistron, and no longer to FPI anymore. FPI is not getting anything from there, not even the bread crust drops from the table.
2) But I think 2.66 is a good or reasonable price, even though I do not pick it up at this price.

Hi Lionel Messi, I agree that is not a con man. The biggest problem is I feel he is stingy lah. Already so much cash why not increase the payout ratio to 90%-100% woh. Everybody is getting old liao. Already hold more than 5 years lo. This durian tree only give me banana every year.

Whole Peninsular FFB yield drop in Mar. In Perak, average dropped 18.2% for all plantations. But UTDPLT suffer higher loss, exceeding 20%.

If anyone is interested can just drive your car to Guocera factory in Kluang. It can be observed from the road side. You can see piles and piles of rubbles at the construction site. I think it has started to burn money while the new factory takes time to build.

The project for the new RM 400 mil porcelain plant is real. Many old factory buildings have been demolished. I visited the site. I don't think there is a turning back for this plan. A bit disappointed because this is not the best dream I had with the company's cash.

Hi Observatory, ya your calculation is correct. I made a mistake in calculating the Jan-Mar CPO production this year.

Hi Observatory, although there is drastic drop in Mar yoy, Q1 CPO production increase 1.2% yoy, which is already considered exceptional for the whole Q1 because this is achieved with 2.7% less trees in the golden age yoy. The number of trees in golden age will further reduce by 1.3% next year, according to my maths.

I think Indonesia started as a small player too, and then rapidly outgrow Malaysia. India may be more protective and may be more challenging for Malaysian plantation company to invest there. Not only they have labour advantage, the market is there means they also have tariff and delivery cost advantage. One more thing, if their government allow, they don't even need to be RSPO certified. Long time ago people told me there's almost no net cost to clear a forest to cultivate oil palm because the log could be sold and the profit is more than enough to cover planting cost. And the most important thing is, the land is so cheap (at that time). I think the land of the virgin forest in India is A LOT cheaper than here in Malaysia. All of these advantages could buy them time to learn to be an efficient planter.

Hi dam82, I checked those too. The conclusion is that the company won't get bankrupt. But large price movement could still happen (which implies that it could still surprise you despite many things have been checked because there is always something else we did not check :). The historical price chart tells the truth. I used to be betting heavily in Guiness (before it was renamed as Heineken). It kept me safe in 2008. After sometime I quit because I thought it was overpriced. At that time Guiness's market share was #1 in Malaysia and one of my concern is whether or not it beat Carlsberg everytime I read the report. Guiness sells Heineken at that time and Heineken was so popular that Carlsberg in the end has to sell Asahi to counter the competition. Consumer sector was my favourite until mid of 2010-2020. I have only one problem with Heineken / Carlsberg in Malaysia - limited market size and declining demographic. But since you mentioned that, I'll take a look again.

Everytime when I buy a stock, I'd like to know how much it would drop in worst case, not just how far it can fly. So you don't get panic when price goes the other direction and ask people how could this happen, out of stress. What is more important to consider is always the negatives. After you have gone through all the negatives points, and finally you press the "buy" button anyhow, you'll have least regret. That's just me.

I think the profit you would be able to make depends more on what price you buy, rather than at what price you sell. It is always easier to buy than to sell. Never afraid of loosing a buying opportunity because you can always wait for another. If you have to ask someone, that means you are not confident. You may feel miserable to enter at this price when it fluctuates. The most difficult part of investing is not knowledge but patience and emotion. So only buy at a price you feel very comfortable with. I never ask anyone at what price should I buy or sell, because when it comes to this matter, you should trust only yourself.

If you think the price will remain the same until just before ex-date, then buy after ex-date because you can save (i) trading cost including stamp duty (ii) interest. If you want to minimize the risk, then buy some days after ex-date. This is because at this point of time all the motivated sellers would have sold their shares.

I agree with dam82, with UP you can sleep for a while. How deep you can sleep depends on at what price you bought. If you buy at 16.40, you must wake up faster than all of us. Haha.

Hi Abrahmi, I can't say you are wrong if you want to buy at 16.40 a piece. But you must have long legs and be able to run fast as you are walking through the mouth of the alligator. You must have both the speed and alert to run when the sentiment swing. Sometime price does not reflect the fundamental or future change until a big investor decide it is time to quit / profit take and the price may landslide faster than you could react. Even so you must have the courage to cut loss, or got your capital trapped for a long long period (years). Normally fundamental investor will tell you to buy when market is very pessimistic so buy when the blog is very quite when no one is interested to post and the trading volume is very low (banker likes to collect when volume is very low for extended period). I can't say you have no chance to make profit entering at 16.40 but for me, I'd hesitate. And I think people like Ooi hesitates too (otherwise he will just keep quite to buy instead of shouting here and there).

I think the above 2 news has to be read together. If you just read one source, you may not understand.

$19 bil means almost half of the imported volume of year 2022. India has the largest arrable land in the world. 50% of their land is arable.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-state-bets-big-oil-palm-cut-19-billion-vegoil-imports-2022-08-03/

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/657471